Iron ore prices followed an initial rise and subsequent decline this week, with the price center shifting further lower. The core drivers were that after the ninth round of coke price cuts was implemented, steel mill losses widened further. Combined with expectations of environmental protection-driven production restrictions in some regions, blast furnace maintenance plans increased, hot metal production continued to pull back, and the demand side was clearly under pressure. In terms of supply, global iron ore shipments and China’s port arrivals both increased MoM, with supply-side pressure intensifying somewhat and further weighing on ore prices. During the week, market talk that benchmark negotiations might restrict low-grade ore port cargo pick-up pushed futures to a short-term rebound. However, the market broadly viewed the probability of this measure actually being implemented as low, and after sentiment was released, price logic returned to a demand-led mode. Affected by this, spot prices performed weaker than futures. In port spot cargoes, the weekly average of the MMI 61% index slipped 5 yuan/mt MoM. Chart: MMI 61% Port Spot Index Source: SMM The domestic iron ore concentrate market edged lower this week, with regional divergence in performance. Prices remained basically stable in Tangshan, Qian’an, and Qianxi in Hebei. Areas such as Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping in western Liaoning edged down by 5-10 yuan/mt. East China saw a pullback of 10-15 yuan/mt. Overall domestic ore production remained steady, but the resource landscape diverged by region. Supply in Hebei remained somewhat tight; within this, the Chengde area saw a further contraction in resource supply due to a mining accident, which provided some support to local iron ore concentrate prices. On the demand side, hot metal production at steel mill blast furnaces remained at a high level, still offering support to iron ore concentrate demand. However, steel mill profits have narrowed significantly recently, and the overall desire to bargain down prices is strong, causing local iron ore concentrate prices to edge down slightly. Chart: Tight Domestic Ore Supply Supports Prices — Domestic vs. Imported Ore Price Spread to Widen Further Next Week Outlook for Next Week Looking ahead to next week, the probability of the 10th round of coke price increases being implemented is relatively high. Increasing steel mill maintenance resulting from losses will lead to a larger decline in hot metal production. Iron ore demand will continue to deteriorate. Meanwhile, mines will push shipments in June, and imported ore port arrivals still have upside room over the next two weeks, leading to a slight accumulation in port inventories. In addition, a new round of talks between the US and Iran is scheduled for mid-month, and crude oil prices still face downside expectations, so iron ore shipping costs will remain weak. Iron ore prices will remain under pressure. However, considering the disturbance from benchmark negotiation news, there may be opportunities for a price rebound. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to remain in the doldrums next week. Domestically, the tight iron ore supply situation is expected to be difficult to alleviate. But given that demand for iron ore concentrates has weakened somewhat, steel mills’ push for lower prices will continue to dominate. The game between sellers and buyers continues. Overall, the domestic iron ore market is expected to be in the doldrums next week, but the decline may be smaller than that for imported ore.

[7.3 Morning Meeting Minutes] US June ADP employment increased by 98,000, the smallest gain since March and below market expectations of 118,000. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract moved sideways in morning trading, closing the session at 125,880 yuan/mt, down 0.41%. A stronger US dollar and a shift in market expectations toward a more "hawkish" US Fed policy stance kept the macro environment challenging. Markets turned their attention to this week's US ADP and non-farm payrolls data. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to trade in the doldrums within the range of 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

Iron ore prices in Tangshan remain stable, with 66% grade iron ore concentrates at dry basis tax-inclusive EXW prices of 970-980 yuan/mt. Local resources are extremely tight, mines and beneficiation plants hold strong willingness to keep prices firm, and their pricing power has strengthened. Demand side, local steel mills may gradually make maintenance plans recently, with overall hot metal production expected to decline, weakening demand support for iron ore concentrates. Overall, steel mills’ desire to bargain down prices remains strong, but mines and beneficiation plants will not sell below their psychological expectations. Sellers and buyers are locked in a standoff. Overall, local iron ore concentrate prices are expected to remain largely stable. [SMM Steel]

The DCE iron ore futures weakened after surging during the night session today, with contract I2609 closing at 740 yuan/mt, up 0.48% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices rose by 5-8 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Trader activity was moderate, steel mills purchased as needed, and spot trading volume has been average so far. Fundamentals of iron ore supply and demand remain stable, with supply on the loose side, and are expected to be steady as the pace of mine shipments slows. On the demand side, as the Southeast Asian export market enters the steel off-season, regional traders have begun to proactively cut prices to compete, causing China's export demand to weaken. However, there is still buffer room in domestic steel inventory, which is unlikely to trigger steel mills' willingness to cut production in the short term. On the news front, aside from rumors of supply tightening for specific products, there were no events determining the market trend. Therefore, considering all factors, short-term iron ore prices are likely to fluctuate within a range. [SMM Steel]

The DCE iron ore futures consolidated today, with contract I2609 closing at 733 yuan/mt, down 1.68% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices fell 10-12 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Trader activity was moderate, while steel mill inquiries increased. Spot trading volume was moderate as of now. Demand for iron ore was expected to trend lower in July. On one hand, the steel market was impacted by the off-season, with reductions in both domestic demand and exports and prices trending downward. Meanwhile, the ninth round of coke price increases was implemented, expectations for a tenth round were strong, and steel mill profits remained under pressure, fueling expectations for production cuts. According to SMM's survey this week, sample steel mill production was 2.456 million mt, down 4,700 mt WoW, and some enterprises had started arranging maintenance plans, with hot metal output expected to decline further. Overall, short-term ore prices were expected to be bearish. [SMM Steel]

The iron ore market is currently locked in a supply-heavy, demand-weak stalemate. While fundamental pressure is pushing for lower prices, strong resistance from high-cost producers is creating a floor, suggesting a range-bound, sideways treading market for the week ahead. Here’s a breakdown of the key factors: Supply: Global Market Remains Loose Arrivals Surge: This week, iron ore arrivals on China port reached 29.33 million tons, a notable 6% increase both week-on-week and year-on-year. Global shipments to China are arriving steadily and in significant volumes. Persistent Inventory: Port inventories continue to be a significant drag. SMM data places 35-port stocks at ~148 million tons, while more source reports up to 170 million tons. Despite high volumes, there is little to no progress on destocking. Demand: Downstream Weakening, Mills Squeezed External Competition: Downstream steel demand continues to soften. The China domestic market is facing further pressure from low-priced steel billet imports from Indonesia, which are grabbing market share. Profit Squeeze: Steel mills are caught in a vise. Upstream, coal and coke prices remain strong and resilient, while downstream demand is absent, continuously eroding steelmaking profits. Production Cuts Expected: Market sentiment is overwhelmingly pessimistic regarding near-term demand. We anticipate both steel mill purchase intent and molten iron production to move lower in tandem. Spot traders report extreme difficulty in securing profitable transactions. News & Negotiations: Stalled Talks & Tangled Factors The coal and coke sectors continue to trended upward sentiment from breaking news, supporting strong price expectations. Meanwhile, the outcomes of the recent closed-door meeting between major steel mills and traders are split between two major market narratives. Price Floor: Resistance from High-Cost Producers Crucially, the current iron ore price has corrected to a very sensitive level—effectively the cost line for many high-cost mines and a significant psychological support point for traders. Both groups are now actively resisting any further price declines.

Today, DCE iron ore futures consolidated. Contract I2609 eventually closed at 747 yuan/mt, up 0.61% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose by 0-3 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Trader activity was moderate, steel mill purchases were mostly based on rigid demand, and as of now, spot trading volume was moderate. Currently, iron ore fundamentals continued to show a bearish structure. The supply side remained loose, with no clear signs of shifting, while demand entered a plateau phase, expected to continue trending downward in the future. This week's SMM survey data showed that the impact on hot metal due to blast furnace maintenance was 1.1563 million mt, down 48,700 mt WoW, and next week, the estimated impact is expected to reach 1.2005 million mt. On the news front, marginal disruptions dominated, with bullish news prevailing, but not yet pointing to a one-sided market. Therefore, taking everything into account, short-term iron ore prices will continue to move sideways. [SMM Steel]

Today, DCE iron ore futures started weak and strengthened later, with contract I2609 eventually closing at 746 yuan/mt, up 0.67% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices were unchanged from the previous trading day. Trader activity was moderate, and steel mills purchased as needed. Spot trading volumes were mediocre as of now. In the short term, the iron ore supply side continues to ease. According to SMM data, China's iron ore port arrivals reached 29.33 million mt last week, up 5.47% WoW and 5.94% YoY. Meanwhile, SMM's total iron ore inventory across 35 ports reached approximately 148 million mt based on the latest data, with overall destocking beginning to slow down. As downstream demand weakens, pressure on the iron ore supply side is gradually emerging, continuing to cap the price ceiling. Meanwhile, bullish and bearish rumors are intertwined in the news, which may drive iron ore prices to edge up slightly in the near term. Taking all factors into account, the market may continue its sideways consolidation pattern in the near term. [SMM Steel]

This week, ferrous metals fell continuously. During the week, there were many disturbances from unverified market rumors, but overall macro sentiment was weak, and expectations of rate hikes outside China continued to weigh on commodity sentiment. Earlier, rumors of a strike at BHP caused a slight rebound in iron ore; in the latter half of the week, Tangshan issued a notice on the "Tangshan Industrial Source Emission Reduction Plan for H2 2026," and combined with post-holiday inventory accumulation of the five major steel products, market sentiment was weak, and ferrous metals fell again. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics for end-users became more evident, market demand continued to weaken. While spot prices remained relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat, and positions in both futures and spot markets were unwound. Transactions were concluded at prices below market levels, further dragging down market prices......

DCE iron ore futures traded on a strong note today before pulling back slightly near the close, with the most-traded I2609 contract finally closing at 748 yuan/mt, up 0.81% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose 8-11 yuan/mt from the day before. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills maintained a strong wait-and-see attitude. Spot trading volume has been moderate so far. Looking ahead, according to the SMM survey, port data for iron ore this period showed slight destocking, with total inventory reaching 148.66 million mt, down 690,000 mt MoM, while port pick-up volume edged down 38,000 mt to 3.23 million mt. The destocking was mainly driven by lower port arrivals. Overall, the iron ore supply side remained ample. On the news front, market rumors were frequent, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts was intense, with no clear divergence emerging yet. With fundamentals and sentiment intertwined, iron ore prices are likely to continue moving sideways in the short term.