This week, ferrous metals continued their rebound trend, with finished products outperforming raw materials. Early in the week, the rally was primarily driven by raw materials, as uncertainty over the Middle East situation combined with market rumors of restricted Mongolian coal shipments boosted the coal sector, with other ferrous metals following suit. Mid-week, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Achieving Higher-Level and Higher-Quality Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction," which covered the steel industry, strengthening market expectations for supply-side reform. In the latter half of the week, data on the five major steel products were released, showing increases in both supply and demand along with inventory drawdowns, with finished products rallying more strongly than raw materials. Spot market side, as futures rose consecutively, end-user purchasing enthusiasm increased somewhat, the spot-futures price spread narrowed mid-week, and there was bargain-hunting activity in spot cargo...

According to SMM survey, on 23 April, the total inventory across the 10 ports in China tracked by SMM stood at 114.32 million tonnes, marking a week-on-week decrease of 1.16 million tonnes. During this period, coarse fines, lump ore, and pellets experienced minor destocking, while concentrates saw a slight accumulation.

DCE iron ore futures trended stronger today. The most-traded contract I2609 ultimately closed at 778.5 yuan/mt, up 0.39% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell 3-5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were active in quoting, while steel mills purchased mainly based on immediate needs with few inquiries; overall spot cargo transactions were mediocre. Fundamentals side, the latest SMM statistics showed that total iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide stood at 152.58 million mt, down 610,000 mt WoW, with overall inventory seeing slight destocking. Meanwhile, daily average port pick-up volume rebounded to 3.13 million mt, an increase of 60,000 mt WoW. Iron ore port inventory showed a slight destocking trend this week, reflecting solid overall iron ore demand. As blast furnace operating rates remained at elevated levels, port pick-up volume is expected to continue growing in the short term, providing relatively firm support for iron ore prices on the downside. Looking ahead to next week, the release of port spot cargo inventory may increase iron ore supply in the short term and slightly weigh on upward momentum for ore prices. Therefore, on a comprehensive basis, iron ore prices are likely to move sideways within a range next week.

According to an SMM survey on April 2, total iron ore inventory across the 10 major ports tracked by SMM stood at 119.31 million tonnes, marking a week-on-week increase of 190,000 tonnes. Inventories of coarse fines and concentrates accumulated slightly, while lump ore and pellets experienced slight destocking.

This week, ferrous metals rebounded from the bottom. At the start of the week, coking coal and coke led the futures higher, mainly driven by rising crude oil prices in the overseas market, which pushed the energy and chemicals sector stronger accordingly; mid-week, both the U.S. and Iran signaled a more relaxed stance toward war, easing geopolitical tensions, while coal prices fell in tandem, weakening the cost-side logic, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs; in the latter half of the week, worsening short-term liquidity issues in BHP's iron ore port inventory triggered stronger iron ore prices in the overseas market, while the Middle East situation remained volatile, reinforcing cost support and pushing ferrous metals higher again. In the spot market, supported by futures, end-user and arbitrage purchase sentiment both improved WoW this week......

Today, iron ore futures continued to be in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2601 closing at 785.5 yuan, down 0.32% from the previous trading day. Traders sold goods following market trends; approaching the weekend, steel mills' purchase willingness weakened. The overall market transaction atmosphere was average. In the Shandong region, the transaction price of PB fines was 790-793 yuan, up 0-3 yuan/mt from yesterday's transaction price; in the Hebei region, the transaction price of 60.8% PB fines was 795-800 yuan/mt, up 0-3 yuan/mt from yesterday's transaction price. As of November 21, according to SMM statistics, the total iron ore inventory at 35 ports nationwide was 137.45 million mt, a decrease of 640,000 mt WoW. The daily average port pick-up volume this week was 2.844 million mt, down 61,000 mt WoW. Looking ahead to next week, port arrivals are expected to rebound, while hot metal production may continue to pull back, and port pick-up volume could decline further, potentially leading to renewed accumulation of port inventory. Iron ore prices remain under pressure, and ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound in the doldrums next week.