The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: Deepen comprehensive reform of investment and financing in the capital market, and enhance the resilience and confidence of the capital market.

Today, iron ore futures on the DCE trended weaker, with the most-traded I2609 contract closing at 760 yuan/mt, down 0.20% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices were little changed from the prior day. Most traders followed market trends, with moderate activity; steel mills remained cautious, with fewer inquiries; as of now, spot trading volumes were relatively low. Looking ahead, iron ore demand is expected to edge up in the short term. According to an SMM survey, the impact of blast furnace maintenance on hot metal production this week was 1.1058 million mt, down 240,100 mt WoW, and next week is expected to be down 6,800 mt WoW from this week. The short-term increase in pig iron production may strengthen support for iron ore prices and prompt price recovery. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of the steel off-season, iron ore inventories have also begun to rise, and the overall upside room for iron ore remains under strong suppression. Therefore, ore prices may stage a brief recovery before continuing to hover at lows in the short term.

According to SMM research, as of the 12th of March, total iron ore inventories across the 10 major ports surveyed stood at 118.99 million tonnes, an increase of 1.08 million tonnes compared to the previous week. Within this total, inventories of coarse fines and lump ore saw a marginal decrease, while stocks of concentrate and pellets continued to accumulate.

As survey conducted by SMM on the 6th of March, total iron ore inventories across 10 major ports stood at 117.91 million tonnes, representing a week-on-week decrease of 960,000 tonnes. This overall reduction was led by a slight destocking of coarse fines and lump ore, while inventories of concentrate and pellets experienced a minor accumulation.

According to an SMM survey dated 26th February, total iron ore inventories across the 10 major ports monitored by SMM reached 118.87 million tonnes, marking an increase of 2.13 million tonnes from the pre-holiday level. A divergence in stock levels was observed among the four main product categories: inventories of coarse fines and lump ore recorded a slight accumulation, whereas stocks of concentrate and pellets experienced a minor destocking.

Iron ore futures generally weakened today, with the most-traded contract I2605 finally settling at 762 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.2% from the previous trading day. Spot prices were basically flat compared to the previous trading day. Traders showed mediocre enthusiasm in offering, while steel mills had limited inquiries. Overall market trading activity was dull and quiet. Key data on iron ore inventories at 10 major ports showed total inventory pulled back to 11.674 billion mt, a decrease of 1.05 million mt WoW. Behind this change was a steady rebound in daily average hot metal production, which drove the release of rigid demand and led to signs of destocking at major ports, indicating substantial improvement on the demand side for iron ore and forming relatively solid support for futures prices. However, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market participants are taking holidays one after another, leading to a noticeable decline in market activity. Moreover, the dual-high pattern of port inventory and in-factory inventory at steel mills continues to exert significant pressure on the upside room for iron ore. The improvement in demand is expected to take some time before being reflected in prices. Therefore, iron ore prices are projected to continue moving sideways in the short term. [SMM Steel]

DCE iron ore fluctuated upward today, with the most-traded contract I2605 settling at 798.5 yuan/mt, up 1.78% from the previous session. Spot prices rose 5-10 yuan. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering, while steel mills purchased as needed and inquired cautiously, resulting in a quiet overall trading atmosphere. According to the latest SMM data, total iron ore inventories at the 10 major ports reached 118.07 million mt, up 1.94 million mt MoM. By inventory structure, coarse fines saw significant inventory buildup, while fine ore, lump ore, and pellets experienced slight destocking. High-grade ore represented by IOCJ fines, supported by solid demand, showed notably larger destocking than other varieties. As steel mills that underwent maintenance earlier gradually resume production, daily average hot metal output is expected to rebound strongly. The recovery in rigid demand will provide solid support for iron ore prices. Considering both structural pressure from port inventories and bottom support from production resumptions on the demand side, iron ore prices are likely to maintain a sideways movement in the near term.

Today, iron ore futures were in the doldrums. The most-traded contract I2605 closed at 813 yuan/mt, down 1.03% from the previous trading day. Spot prices dropped slightly by about 2–5 yuan/mt. Traders were active in offering prices but remained cautious, mainly restocking for rigid demand. Overall market trading sentiment was moderate. Inventory data showed that, according to the latest SMM statistics, total iron ore inventories at ten ports reached 115.69 million mt this period, up 1.05 million mt WoW. All four major ore varieties saw inventory buildup, with lump ore posting the most significant increase of 3.7%. Although global shipments plunged 15.8% at the beginning of the week, due to shipping cycle delays, this positive factor has yet to translate into port arrivals. In the short term, pressure from spot supply at ports persists. Demand side, although the growth rate of daily average hot metal production slowed down recently, the overall level remained high. Further upside room is expected to be relatively optimistic, providing solid bottom support for ore prices. Market sentiment side, rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories fell instead of rising amid the off-season this week. Meanwhile, coking coal and coke prices remained firm, offering some sentiment support to the iron ore market, which also belongs to the ferrous metals complex. Considering the current tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, under the dual influence of inventory accumulation and rigid demand support, iron ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term, with limited potential for a one-sided breakout.

Today, iron ore futures retreated from highs, with the futures market in the doldrums. The most-traded contract I2605 closed at 813 yuan/mt, down 0.37% from the previous trading day. Spot prices fell 8–15 yuan from the previous day. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was moderate, mostly following the market trend; steel mills continued to purchase based on rigid demand, and overall market trading remained sluggish. Supply and demand side, blast furnace maintenance intensity dropped back slightly recently, and hot metal production gradually rebounded, providing some support to iron ore demand. According to SMM survey data, iron ore inventories at 10 ports saw a slight drawdown this week, with total inventories at 114.64 million mt, down 570,000 mt WoW. Market sentiment side, after several days of strong gains, some market funds chose to take profits; meanwhile, news circulated that Jinbuba fines were allowed for port cargo pick-up, leading to a pullback in futures. Despite supportive fundamental data, spot trading activity cooled, with insufficient momentum to rush to buy amid continuous price rises. Overall performance showed strong fundamental support but futures under pressure. However, considering the pre-Chinese New Year restocking window remains and hot metal production is on an upward trend, downside support remains solid. Overall, ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

At 20:00 Beijing time on January 3, according to a CCTV news report, US officials revealed that US President Trump had ordered a military strike against targets in Venezuela.