According to preliminary data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), Turkey's iron ore imports experienced an explosive growth in the first quarter of 2026, surging by 33.9% year-on-year to hit 2.88 million metric tons (mt), while the total import value advanced by 29.8% to $372.10 million. Brazil consolidated its position as the undisputed top supplier, exporting 1.42 million mt during the quarter, representing a steady 15.6% increase year-on-year. Notably, Norway and Russia recorded massive expansions to gain substantial market shares: imports from Norway skyrocketed by an unprecedented 194.5% year-on-year to reach 318,400 mt, while Russian shipments jumped by 142.1% year-on-year to 522,600 mt, successfully replacing traditional volumes from Ukraine and Sweden. The market impact demonstrates a rapid production recovery among Turkish integrated blast furnace steelmakers who are aggressively restocking premium raw materials. This strategic shift toward Norwegian and Russian origins highlights a deep restructuring of Turkey's merchant ore procurement, which is expected to provide firm structural support for global high-grade iron ore and pellet price benchmarks as regional steel utilization rates climb.

According to the latest data from the GACC. China has imported 97.711 Mt of iron ore and concentrates in May, down 6.143 Mt MoM, a decline of 5.9%. Cumulative imports in January-May reached 516.258 Mt, increased 6.3% YoY. In May, the operating rate of China's steel industry remained high, with strong downstream demand supporting high pig iron production at steel mills. Given wider profit margins, mills' appetite for iron ore remained solid. That said, elevated port inventories and a persistent decline in ore prices in late May squeezed import margins and partly curbed buying interest. In addition, iron ore prices in May were affected by adjustments to the statistical cycle and the Labour Day holiday, resulting in fewer statistical days compared with April. Some enterprises also made customs declarations ahead of schedule, leading to a notable MoM decline in iron ore imports in May. June iron ore imports are expected to grow. On one hand, June, as the final month of Q2, will prompt some mines to accelerate production and shipping paces to meet shipment targets. On the other, although the market is starting to enter the traditional off-season for steel, ex-China steel demand is still able to drive Chinese steel exports, leaving mills sufficient surplus to maintain blast furnace operating rates. Hot metal output in June is also projected to stay elevated, providing rigid demand support for iron ore. Supply-demand synergy is expected to lift iron ore imports in June.

I. Background of China's Demand Decline ◼ In 2026, the global iron ore market is facing a critical turning point. As the Chinese government continues to strengthen steel capacity regulation and accelerate the industry's green and low-carbon transition, compounded by global trade barriers constraining export opportunities, China's steel production is expected to continue its YoY decline. As the world's largest iron ore consumer (absorbing approximately 75% of seaborne iron ore volume), China's weakening demand coincides with the supply side being about to see massive volume releases—represented by the phased commissioning of the Simandou project with a designed annual capacity of 120 million mt. With supply and demand moving in opposite directions, global iron ore prices will face significant downward pressure. Data source: SMM ◼ Against this backdrop, market attention naturally turns to the world's second-largest crude steel producer— India . As an emerging market in steel consumption, India is driven by infrastructure and real estate as its core growth engines, with downstream steel consumption growing rapidly, strongly propelling the robust development of crude steel production, with an average annual growth rate of 10.5% . Although countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico, and the US also maintain relatively fast development in their steel industries, over the next five years, the highest compound annual growth rate among these countries is only 5%, forming a notable gap with India. Data source: SMM II. Analysis of India's Iron Ore Supply-Demand Structure 2.1 India's Iron Ore Production Continues to Grow, but Structural Differentiation Is Evident ◼ 2.1.1 India Is Rich in Iron Ore Resources, Ranking Third Globally ◼ From a resource perspective, India is relatively rich in iron ore resources. According to the latest 2024 Iron Ore Resource Annual Report released by India's Ministry of Mines, India's iron ore resource reserves total 35.29 billion mt. Magnetite accounts for 33%, and hematite accounts for 67%. The predominant hematite resources are mainly distributed across Odisha, Goa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Karnataka — these five states. Among them, Odisha in the east (production accounting for over half of the national total, grade 62%-65%) and Chhattisgarh (home to the large Bailadila mining area, with estimated total reserves of 3 billion mt and grade as high as 65%), as well as Karnataka in the south (primarily magnetite). Data source: SMM 2.1.2 India's Iron Ore Production Is Largely Concentrated in State-Owned Mines ◼ India's iron ore mining market combines state-owned and private enterprises. By company ownership, 36% of mines are controlled by state-owned enterprises, with the remaining 64% controlled by private enterprises. Representative state-owned mine enterprises include National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC) , Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) , and Kudremukh Iron Ore Company (Kudremukh); representative private mine enterprises include Tata Steel Company, etc. ◼ In FY2025/26 (April 2025–March 2026), India's iron ore production is expected to reach 305–310 million mt, up approximately 7% YoY. Specifically: NMDC (state-owned producer) production reached 53.15 million mt, up 20.6% YoY; OMC production reached 40 million mt, up 11% YoY. Commercial mine production grew 15% to 190 million mt, while captive mine production declined 3% to 120 million mt. Production growth was primarily driven by commercial producers, and the supply structure is shifting, but growth is concentrated among a few large producers, meaning supply conditions are not balanced. Data source: WSA, SMM 2.1.3 India's New Iron Ore Project Capacity to Increase by 60 Million mt by 2030 ◼ Facing tight balance pressure from downstream steelmaking capacity expansion on supply and demand, industry leader NMDC is actively implementing a capacity expansion strategy. By accelerating mine development and technological upgrades, it is committed to enhancing supply-side flexibility and resilience to ensure continuous fulfillment of the widening rigid demand in the Chinese market. ◼ In addition to NMDC planning to increase capacity from 45 million mt to 67 million mt in FY2025/26, Tata Steel plans to invest 100 billion rupees (approximately $1.18 billion) over the next five years to expand mining capacity from 40 million mt to 55 million mt, and some private enterprises are also increasing iron ore capacity. Based on existing new iron ore capacity estimates, India's iron ore capacity is expected to increase by 60 million mt by 2030. Data source: SMM 2.1.4 Imbalanced Iron Ore Grade Structure — Both an Exporter and Importer ◼ According to the latest India resource report, although India has abundant iron ore reserves, the raw ore grade varies significantly. Currently, total explored reserves across India stand at 6.21 billion mt, of which high-grade iron ore accounts for 23%, medium-grade ore approximately 42%, and low-grade ore approximately 25%. Based on product classification of India's industry leaders, iron ore with grade above 60% accounts for 43% of production, while that below 60% accounts for approximately 57%, indicating that India's iron ore products are predominantly low-grade. However, India's major steel producers have high raw material requirements and prefer iron ore with grade above 60%. Therefore, iron ore below 60% grade is mainly exported to China, Japan, and other countries. The high-grade shortfall is mainly met through imports from Brazil, Oman, Australia, and other countries. Data sources: India Resources Report, WSA, SMM III. Key Constraints on India's Ability to Absorb China's Declining Iron Ore Demand 3.1 Vast Volume Gap Hard to Bridge, but Incremental Offset Can Provide a Floor ◼ In recent years, China's annual iron ore imports were approximately 1.2 billion mt, while India remains primarily an exporter, with annual exports of 23.56 million mt and imports of 12.31 million mt—its import scale being only 1% of China's. Even if India redirected all its export resources to meet its own demand, the absolute scale would still be two orders of magnitude smaller than China's demand decline. ◼ However, as China's iron ore demand declines and India's demand rises in the future, India's share in the global iron ore market will grow significantly. According to World Steel Association data, China accounted for 59% of global iron ore demand in 2025, while India accounted for only 10%; by 2030, China's share is expected to decline to 52%, while India's will rise to 15%, with particularly impressive growth momentum. The incremental demand from India will offset part of China's decline, providing a floor for iron ore prices. Data sources: WSA, SMM 3.2 Government Policies & Import Grade Restrictions Limiting Imports ◼ Based on India's iron ore import and export data, India's exports in 2025 declined 34% compared to 2024, while imports surged 129%. Despite the massive increase in imports and significant room for further growth driven by rising domestic demand, the Indian government has already introduced measures requiring priority fulfillment of domestic demand and reducing exports, which will to some extent suppress the growth potential of its iron ore imports. Meanwhile, the continued degradation of resource endowments at major global mines has intensified the structural shortage of high-grade ore, making the high-grade resources available for India's future imports relatively limited. Furthermore, as requirements for green steel production increase in and outside China, China's future demand for high-grade iron ore will also rise correspondingly, a trend that will further constrain India's iron ore import capacity. ◼ In the long run, if demand for high-grade ore continues to trigger structural tightness, the price spread between high-, medium-, and low-grade iron ore will continue to widen. Against this backdrop, India's own ore product mix may undergo significant adjustments, and its exports may continue to decline. Data sources: WSA, SMM 3.3 Green Steel Policies Driving Higher Electric Furnace Share, Iron Ore Demand Growth Under Pressure to Slow Down ◼ From a production process perspective, India's share of electric furnace steelmaking far exceeds China's, at approximately 30% in 2024. According to India's *National Steel Policy (2017)*, the country plans to raise its annual crude steel capacity to 300 million mt by FY2030 (ending March 31, 2031), with blast furnace-converter process capacity accounting for 60%-65% and electric furnace process capacity accounting for 35%-40%. As global carbon emission policies advance further, the share of green steel will increase significantly in the future, which aligns with the electric furnace capacity share target in India's National Steel Policy. Under this trend, the rising share of electric furnace steelmaking will, to some extent, curb the incremental demand for iron ore in India. Data sources: WSA, SMM IV. India's Iron Ore Demand Growth: Sufficient to Offset, Insufficient to Reverse ◼ According to the World Steel Association's forecast, global total iron ore demand is expected to maintain a modest growth trend from 2026 to 2030. China's iron ore demand is expected to decline by 8%, a reduction of approximately 113 million mt, while benefiting from continued expansion in steel production, India's total iron ore demand over the same period will grow by 55%, an increase of approximately 128 million mt. Meanwhile, based on estimates of global iron ore project capacity and commissioning pace, by 2030, approximately 300 million mt of new iron ore capacity is expected to be added globally on a cumulative basis. Overall, although India's demand growth is robust, it remains difficult to offset the large-scale supply increase on a global scale. However, the rise in India's demand can, to some extent, counteract the negative impact of declining demand from China, providing floor support for iron ore prices. ◼ In addition, as global carbon emission policies advance further, blast furnace capacity will gradually contract and crude steel production will trend downward, while the share of direct reduced iron (DRI) and electric furnace steelmaking is expected to continue rising. Against this backdrop, demand for high-grade iron ore will grow significantly in both China and India, which will further intensify the structural tightness in the high-grade ore market, thereby pushing up high-grade premiums. The price spread between high- and medium-grade iron ore is expected to widen notably in the future. Data source: SMM Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original article of this official account. For reprinting, whitelisting, cooperation, or other needs, please contact us. Without permission, it is prohibited to reprint, modify, use, sell, transfer, display, translate, compile, disseminate, or disclose the above content to third parties in any other form, or license third parties to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal liability for infringement through legal means, including but not limited to demanding liability for breach of contract, return of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. Scan the QR code to get information for free

Turkey's iron ore imports reached 2.68 million metric tons (mt) in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 28% increase year-on-year, while the total import value rose by 25.2% to $286.06 million, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK). This growth was achieved despite a sharp monthly drop in March, where imports fell 18.7% month-on-month to 785,503 mt (with an import value of $81.82 million, down 23.2% MoM). Brazil consolidated its position as the top supplier in Q1, exporting 1.78 million mt (+26.6% YoY), while Norway entered the market with 499,250 mt and imports from Russia skyrocketed by 224.5% to 339,025 mt, completely offsetting the total absence of volumes from Sweden, Uzbekistan, and Ukraine.

According to the latest statistics from the GACC, total iron ore imports in April 2026 amounted to 103.854 million tonnes, representing a decrease of 889,000 tonnes from the previous month, a month-on-month decline of 0.8%. From January to April, cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates reached 418.587 million tonnes, marking an 8.0% increase year-on-year. In April, steel mills generally exhibited subdued purchasing activity due to the limited cost-effectiveness of imported iron ore. Concurrently, rising premiums and shipping costs further compressed import margins, diminishing the purchasing intentions of some importers. Nonetheless, strong downstream demand resulted in high utilisation rates of blast furnaces within steel mills, sustaining elevated levels of pig iron production and maintaining robust iron ore demand. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to adjustments in some iron ore shipping routes originally designated for export to that region, with China increasingly serving as a transit and receiving hub, which contributed to an overall increase in China's iron ore imports. Consequently, despite a slight decrease in April, import levels remained broadly stable under the influence of various factors. Looking ahead to May, the gradual recovery of port facilities in major importing countries from weather-related disruptions is expected to facilitate a significant increase in shipments from key iron ore-producing nations. Meanwhile, steel mills are anticipated to sustain high operating rates driven by profit margins, indicating that demand for iron ore imports is likely to remain strong. Furthermore, overseas mines that commenced production earlier are still in the ramp-up phase, which will support continued shipment growth. The Simandou iron ore mine is projected to reach its first shipping peak in May, with the majority of shipments destined for China. However, the Labour Day holiday in May, which reduces working days and could impact customs clearance efficiency and data collection, may result in a marginal increase in China's iron ore imports compared to April.

India’s iron ore imports declined by 11% year-on-year in April 2026, falling to 0.41 million metric tons (mt) from 0.46 million mt in the previous year. This drop follows a record-high import year in 2025 and is attributed to increased domestic mining output and a strategic shift by coastal steel plants toward local ores to mitigate high sea-borne freight costs. Despite the import decline, India’s total domestic iron ore production is projected to remain strong to support its expanding crude steel capacity. The reduction in Indian import appetite may slightly ease the demand pressure on high-grade Australian and Brazilian fines in the spot market.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs China (GACC) imported 104.74 Mt of iron ore and concentrates in March 2026, representing a month-on-month increase of 7.38 Mt , or 7.6% . Cumulative imports for the first quarter reached 314.76 Mt, marking a 10.5 % Y-O-Y growth. Beyond underlying fundamental factors, geopolitical friction also contributed to the elevation of iron ore import volumes during March. Specifically, escalating tensions in the Middle East have severely disrupted commercial shipping lanes traversing the Strait of Hormuz. Although direct export volumes from the Middle Eastern region to China remain comparatively marginal, the destabilisation of global logistics networks precipitated by regional conflicts has forced vessels initially scheduled to transit through the Middle East or adjacent maritime corridors to reroute. Consequently, these diverted cargoes have been redirected towards East Asian markets, prominently including China. Furthermore, the progressive ramp-up of domestic blast furnace utilisation rates throughout March has augmented the steel sector's raw material requirements, thereby providing an additional stimulus for iron ore imports. Looking ahead to April, the direct impact of the Middle Eastern situation on China's aggregate iron ore import volumes is anticipated to remain relatively constrained. However, should the regional conflict fail to de-escalate substantively within the month, international dry bulk vessels may continue to bypass Middle Eastern ports for transshipment, inadvertently resulting in China passively absorbing additional cargoes from alternative origins. Additionally, as major overseas mining projects progressively advance, global iron ore supply remains generally accommodative. Dispatches, spearheaded by the Simandou project—which boasts an estimated annual output of 20 million tonnes—are projected to generate a moderate uplift in iron ore shipments directed towards China in April. From a cyclical perspective, the second quarter conventionally represents a traditional peak season for iron ore dispatches. Synthesising these multifaceted variables, we project that Chinese iron ore import volumes will exhibit a tangible upward trajectory throughout April.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 104.743 million mt of iron ore and concentrates in March 2026, an increase of 7.375 million mt MoM, up 7.6% MoM; cumulative imports of iron ore and concentrates from January to March totaled 314.762 million mt, up 10.5% YoY. Beyond fundamental factors, geopolitical conflicts also contributed to the increase in iron ore imports in March to a certain extent. Specifically, the escalation of tensions in the Middle East severely disrupted commercial shipping along the Strait of Hormuz. Although direct exports from the Middle East to China were relatively small, the disruption to the global logistics system caused by regional conflicts forced some vessels originally planned to transit through the Middle East or pass through those waters to reroute. These resources were redirected to East Asian markets including China. In addition, as domestic blast furnace capacity utilization rates gradually improved in March, the steel industry's demand for ore further increased, thereby stimulating iron ore imports. Looking ahead to April, although the direct impact of the Middle East situation on China's total iron ore imports is relatively limited, if the Middle East conflict fails to achieve substantive de-escalation within the month, some international bulk carriers are likely to continue avoiding Middle Eastern ports for transshipment, resulting in China passively receiving more cargoes from other regions to a certain extent. Furthermore, as large-scale ex-China mining projects progressively advance, global ore supply remains generally ample, and shipments led by Simandou (estimated at 20 million mt for the full year) are expected to bring a certain degree of uplift to iron ore supply exported to China in April. From a seasonal perspective, Q2 is typically the traditional peak shipping season for iron ore. Therefore, taking all the above factors into consideration, China's iron ore imports in April are expected to show a certain growth trend.

On 30 March, India is scheduled to participate in consultations with Argentina, Indonesia, and Oman at an upcoming steel industry conference to discuss raw materials including iron ore and coking coal, with a focus on fostering technical cooperation. Oman and Brazil remain India's primary sources of iron ore imports. For the fiscal year 2025/26, India’s iron ore imports are projected to reach between 12 and 14 million tones—its highest level in seven years—with approximately 70% sourced from Brazil and Oman.

India is projected to increase its iron ore imports to a seven-year high of 14 million tonnes in the 2025/2026 financial year to support its rapidly expanding steel production capacity. This trend reflects a strategic shift by Indian steelmakers toward sourcing high-grade international ores to optimize blast furnace efficiency as domestic crude steel production targets continue to rise. Despite being a major producer and exporter of iron ore, India's growing appetite for premium-grade feedstock is expected to make it a more prominent player in the global seaborne iron ore trade.