Today, the iron ore futures market trended weaker. The most-traded I2609 contract on the DCE closed at 739 yuan/mt, down 0.27% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao port fell by 1-3 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were fairly active in offering, while steel mills mainly purchased on a rigid demand basis, resulting in weak overall spot trading sentiment. Short-term iron ore demand dipped marginally, but is expected to grow from next week. According to an SMM survey, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate among sampled steel mills was 88.90%, down 0.59 percentage points MoM. The daily average hot metal production of sampled steel mills was 2.4087 million mt, down 16,000 mt MoM. Next week, as environmental protection restrictions are lifted, most blast furnaces under maintenance will gradually resume production, and pig iron production is expected to enter a growth trajectory. However, limited by the high iron ore inventory itself and uncertainties in the market outlook, short-term iron ore prices are expected to struggle to break through overhead resistance and may continue to move sideways. [SMM Steel]

Ferrous metals showed slight divergence this week, with coking coal outperforming while iron ore, coke, and coil and rebar were generally weaker, and iron ore led the decline. During the week, news of the U.S.-Iran conflict fluctuated, but the market...

This week, iron ore futures consolidated on a subdued note, with fundamentals showing a supply-demand both weak pattern. Affected by typhoon weather, iron ore port arrivals dropped sharply by 21%, while hot metal output also pulled back slightly, and the destocking pace of port inventories narrowed. During the week, the US-Iran conflict once pushed up crude oil prices, but since shipments had already declined significantly since July, ocean freight rates only moved sideways, having limited impact on the iron ore cost side. Demand side, end-use demand remained persistently weak, steel mills' shipments were sluggish, and the pace of steel inventory buildup expanded, suppressing steel mills' raw material purchase willingness, with spot prices falling under pressure. Chart: MMI 61% Port Spot Index Source: SMM This week, domestic iron ore concentrates prices were largely stable. By region, prices in Tangshan, Qian'an, and Qianxi in Hebei edged down by 1-5 yuan/mt; prices in Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping in western Liaoning were mostly stable; east China rose by 1-5 yuan/mt. The delivered price, tax included, for 66% grade iron ore concentrates in the Tangshan area closed at 980-985 yuan/mt, with mines and beneficiation plants mostly operating as planned. In the Chengde area, affected by previous heavy rainfall, open-pit iron mines have mostly resumed production recently, but underground mines and beneficiation plants and some large open-pit mines remain in a shutdown state; other areas also experienced short-term production halts, keeping China's overall resource supply still tight. Demand side, local steel mills had some maintenance expectations, and hot metal output may gradually decline, weakening support for iron ore demand. Currently, sellers and buyers are locked in a game, keeping iron ore concentrates prices generally stable. Chart: Imported Ore Prices Strengthened, Price Spread Between Imported and Domestic Ore Narrowed Slightly Outlook for Next Week Imported ore: Looking ahead to next week, the Tangshan area will initiate a new round of environmental protection-related controls during key periods. Under the shutdown and production restriction requirements for regional steel mills, the decline in hot metal output may exceed expectations, and iron ore demand will decline further. The supply side is expected to rebound: there is room for growth in overseas shipments, and port arrivals will rebound after the typhoon impact fades, port inventories are likely to shift to inventory buildup, with supply pressure gradually rising. However, considering the Politburo meeting is about to be held, the market's expectations for more bullish economic policies in H2 have heated up, and sentiment may boost ore prices, with a possibility of a short-term slight rebound. Overall, with fundamentals under pressure and macro expectations heating up interacting, iron ore prices are expected to remain mainly in a consolidate pattern next week. Domestic ore: Looking ahead to next week, some regions have expectations for domestic ore production resumptions, and domestic concentrates output may rebound slightly, but overall resources remain tight; demand side, environmental protection inspections are intensifying, maintenance expectations are rising for some steel mills in North China, and hot metal output is expected to continue its downward trend. The short-term market is in a weak supply-demand pattern, and China's iron ore concentrate prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note next week.

Iron ore concentrates prices in the Tangshan area are relatively stable, with 66% grade iron ore concentrates, dry basis delivered price, tax included, at 980-985 yuan/mt. Local mines and beneficiation plants are mostly producing normally as planned. In the Chengde area, mines and beneficiation plants were previously affected by heavy rainfall. Recently, most local open-pit iron mines have resumed normal production, but underground mines and beneficiation plants, as well as a few individual large open-pit mines, are still suspended, and overall local resources remain tight. Demand side, local steel mills are expected to have some maintenance, and overall hot metal output may decline, weakening support for iron ore demand, and the local market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. Overall, local iron ore concentrates prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. [SMM Steel]

Iron ore futures trended weaker today. The most-traded DCE I2609 contract closed at 739.5 yuan/mt, down 1.00%. Spot prices at Qingdao Port fell about 4-8 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was moderate, and steel mills were in a rather wait-and-see mood. As of now, spot transaction volumes were moderate. According to the latest SMM survey, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate among sample steel mills was 89.49%, down 0.50 percentage point WoW. Their daily average hot metal output was 2.4247 million mt, down 13,500 mt WoW. Although the intensity of environmental protection-driven production restrictions fell short of expectations, hot metal output is still expected to continue its downward trend. Meanwhile, environmental protection and safety inspection factors have not yet subsided, and some steel mills may arrange temporary maintenance. Overall, blast furnace hot metal output is likely to continue declining in the near term, and iron ore demand is expected to remain weak. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to consolidate with a bearish bias in the near term. [SMM Steel]

This week, the ferrous metals sector rebounded slightly overall, with divergence among products: iron ore and hot-rolled coil/rebar performed relatively strong, while coke was relatively weak. Early in the week, affected by sluggish end-use consumption in the off-season and continued pressure on steel mill profits, futures for all products consolidated and weakened; mid-week, driven by the combined effects of rumors of a BHP worker strike, the repeated US-Iran geopolitical conflicts, and rising expectations of environmental protection-driven production restrictions in Tangshan, iron ore and hot-rolled coil/rebar spot and futures prices saw a period of stabilization and rebound. However, from a fundamental perspective, the off-season characteristics on the demand side remained......

Today, iron ore futures moved sideways, with the most-traded DCE I2609 contract closing at 762 yuan/mt, edging up 0.53% from the previous day's closing price. Most spot prices edged up 0-2 yuan/mt. Traders sold in line with market conditions. As the weekend approached, steel mills' purchase willingness was weak, and market trading sentiment was muted. As of July 17, the latest SMM data showed that total iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide was 145.13 million mt, down 2.03 million mt MoM, with overall inventory destocking again. Over the same period, the daily average port pick-up volume edged down 55,000 mt to 3.22 million mt. This week, due to short-term weather disruptions, port arrivals at some ports dropped significantly, notably tightening resource supply. Looking ahead to next week, although iron ore demand is expected to weaken further, the US-Iran conflict and long-term contract negotiations will continue to disrupt the futures market. Ore prices are expected to maintain a consolidation pattern next week.

This week, iron ore futures consolidated and strengthened. The DCE most-traded contract I2609 closed at 744.5 yuan/mt on Monday, and from Tuesday drifted higher, breaking through the 760 yuan/mt level. The core driver of this round of price strength came more from news-driven disruptions, while fundamental support was relatively limited. On the supply side, the strike at BHP's Port Hedland proceeded as planned, with port shipments suspended for about 8 hours, which is expected to reduce Australia's shipments this week by about 2 million mt. Meanwhile, long-term contract negotiations remained unresolved, SSF port spot cargo pick-up was restricted, and the market circulation of low-grade ore contracted notably, intermittently intensifying supply tightness expectations for certain products. On the demand side, however, performance remained weak. Affected by increased blast furnace maintenance, hot metal output continued to decline, and overall iron ore demand kept weakening, capping the upside room for prices. Chart: MMI 61% Port Spot Index Source: SMM This week, China's iron ore concentrate prices edged up marginally. By region, prices in Tangshan, Qian'an, and Qianxi in Hebei edged up by 1-5 yuan/mt; Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping in western Liaoning raised by 1-5 yuan/mt; east China also saw gains of 1-2 yuan/mt. Iron ore concentrate prices in the Tangshan area of Hebei were relatively stable, with 66% grade dry basis EXW prices including tax at 980-985 yuan/mt; the local area was less affected by rainfall, and production mostly continued as planned. The Chengde area was hit by heavy rainfall, and most mining and beneficiation plants suspended production and shipments—especially in Kuancheng, where the disaster was severe, and overall spot circulation was largely halted. At present, only a few producers in less rain-affected areas could maintain normal operations. Iron ore concentrate supply was also relatively tight in other regions. This week, China's iron ore concentrate prices edged up slightly. Chart: Imported Ore Prices Strengthened, Domestic-Imported Ore Price Spread Narrowed Slightly Outlook for Next Week Imported Ore: Looking ahead to next week, Tangshan's environmental protection-driven production restrictions have been gradually launched since mid-to-late July, but so far the actual impact on blast furnaces and rolling lines has been relatively limited. If restrictions tighten further next week, some steel mills could arrange temporary blast furnace maintenance, in which case hot metal output would have further room to decline, and iron ore demand may remain under pressure. However, there is still some support from the supply side and cost side. On the one hand, the SSF port restriction has not eased yet, and low-grade ore circulation remains tight. On the other hand, against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian concentrate supply continues to shrink; coupled with recurring US-Iran geopolitical tensions, these have intermittently lifted the cost floor for iron ore. Overall, the downside room for iron ore prices is limited in the short term, and prices are expected to continue moving sideways within a range. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the enforcement of environmental protection-driven production restrictions, marginal changes in hot metal output, and further disruptions from geopolitical factors to raw material supply. Domestic Ore: Looking ahead to next week, domestic iron ore concentrate supply is estimated to remain tight. On the demand side, however, hot metal output at local steel mills is expected to decline, and there is a relatively strong desire to push for lower prices for domestic iron ore concentrates. Nevertheless, market sentiment is clearly in favor of sellers at present and local iron ore concentrate prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term.

Today, iron ore futures showed a strong trend, with the most-traded DCE I2609 contract closing at 762 yuan/mt, up 1.13%. Spot iron ore prices at Qingdao port rose by about 0-2 yuan/mt from the previous trading day due to thin trading. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was moderate, and steel mills' purchase willingness was relatively poor. So far, spot trading volume has been relatively small. SMM survey confirms that iron ore demand continued to decline. According to the survey, the blast furnace operating rate for 242 steel mills in China reached 89.79% this week, with sample mills' daily average hot metal production at 2.4382 million mt, down 2,400 mt WoW. Fundamentals' support for ore prices continued to weaken. News side, some mine types may implement port cargo pick-up restrictions tomorrow. Market sentiment reacted violently, driving up futures prices, but this cannot provide stable support for ore prices in the long term. Taking into account both supply-demand and sentiment, short-term ore prices may hold up well until market sentiment subsides, with prices reverting to fundamentals. [SMM Steel]

[SMM Iron Ore Daily Briefing] Today, iron ore futures trended stronger, with the most-traded DCE contract I2609 closing at 760.5 yuan/mt, up 1.81%. Spot prices at Qingdao Port held up well, rising approximately 10-12 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Trader activity increased, but steel mills’ overall purchase willingness remained low, limited to essential restocking. Spot transaction volumes were modest as of now. From the perspective of steel mill maintenance, iron ore demand is expected to decline further. According to SMM data, this week (from July 11 to July 17), the hot metal impact from blast furnace maintenance in China was 1.3434 million mt, with the impact from maintenance up 70,100 mt WoW. Next week (from July 18 to July 24), the hot metal impact from blast furnace maintenance is expected to be 1.4109 million mt, a projected increase of 67,500 mt WoW. In terms of news, the strike at Port Hedland and the port cargo pick-up restrictions about to be implemented may tighten supply in the short term. Overall, Iron ore prices may see a bottom lift in the near term but are expected to continue fluctuating within a range.[SMM Iron & Steel] Note: The above information is compiled based on market communication and information from public channels, and does not constitute valid investment advice.