Albania added an estimated 180 MW to 210 MW of solar capacity in 2025, bringing its total to between 600 MW and 650 MW. The utility-scale sector remains the primary growth engine, with a notable shift toward merchant projects, such as the 50 MW Belsh PV site backed by the EBRD and WBIF. While commercial and industrial (C&I) solar is gaining traction as a price hedge, residential adoption remains the smallest segment. Experts note the market is gradually transitioning from an 'auction-driven' phase to a more 'market-driven' investment environment. Future expansion will depend increasingly on investment bankability, clearer grid connection procedures, corporate power purchase agreement (PPA) frameworks, and energy storage integration.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) has entered into an exclusive agreement with American Industrial Partners (AIP) to acquire 100% of Aluminum Dunkerque, Europe's largest primary aluminum smelter, located in Loon-Plage, Dunkerque, France. The site produces ~300,000 tonnes of aluminum per year. Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) will pay the consideration for acquiring Aluminium Dunkerque entirely payable in cash, with funding fully underwritten by a syndicate of relationship banks. Alba has offered a shareholding position to Bpifrance (France's public investment bank) to foster a strategic partnership and support the long-term, sustainable development of the French smelter. Discussions with Bpifrance have started and will continue in the coming days.

The European Investment Bank has provided a loan of 75 million euros to the Austrian aluminum enterprise AMAG Austria Metall AG. This financing represents the first loan issued by the European Investment Bank (EIB) in Austria under the European Tech (TechEU) program, which aims to promote industrial innovation in Europe. AMAG will use the loan to advance the digitalization and environmental sustainability upgrades of its production processes at its plant in Upper Austria. As the first loan implemented by the EIB under the TechEU program in Austria, this financing will support AMAG in carrying out a total investment project of 168 million euros between 2025 and 2028.

On Tuesday (June 17), the Bank of Japan (BOJ) stated in its latest monetary policy statement that it would maintain the policy interest rate at 0.5% and planned to slow down the pace of reducing bond purchases in the next fiscal year. In late May, Japanese government bond yields surged to record highs, driven by weak demand from investors for long-term Japanese government bond auctions and high volatility in the global bond market. On May 21, the yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds hit a historic high of 3.2%. At that time, traders noted that this not only reflected market concerns about the global economic outlook but also concerns about the impact of the BOJ's ongoing plan to reduce bond purchases. On Tuesday, the BOJ's Policy Board concluded a two-day meeting. During the meeting, policymakers unanimously voted to keep the short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5% and to reduce bond purchases at a slower pace starting next year . It is evident that the key focus of this meeting was to adjust the pace. This outcome was also in line with market expectations. Prior to the meeting, Ryutaro Kono, Japan's chief economist at BNP Paribas, pointed out, "The instability in the bond market is not conducive to the implementation of monetary policy. To prudently balance the pace of balance sheet reduction, the BOJ is likely to slow down the pace of reducing bond purchases starting from next spring." Slowing down the pace of balance sheet reduction In March last year, the BOJ abolished its negative interest rate and yield curve control policies, and then decided in July of the same year to reduce the scale of bond purchases, which would continue until March 2026. Specifically, the BOJ will continue to reduce its monthly government bond purchase plan and decrease the scale of quarterly bond purchases by approximately 400 billion yen (approximately $2.8 billion) until March 2026. On Tuesday, the BOJ stated that it would not make any changes to the existing reduction plan . It is estimated that, as of the quarter ending June 2026, the BOJ's monthly bond purchases will amount to 4.1 trillion yen. However, according to the BOJ's plan for the next fiscal year, the bank indicated that it would slow down the reduction pace to 200 billion yen (approximately $1.4 billion) per quarter starting from April 2026 , with the goal of reaching a monthly purchase level of 2.1 trillion yen by March 2027. The BOJ explained that this move aims to "improve the functioning of the Japanese bond market in a manner that supports market stability." On Tuesday, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda held a press conference after the meeting, stating that the bank would appropriately reduce bond purchases in a predictable manner and would respond flexibly if yields rise significantly. Regarding the matter of interest rate hikes, Ueda noted that if the economic outlook aligns with expectations, the central bank will raise interest rates. Investment Bank Perspectives HSBC Global Research pointed out that a monthly bond purchase scale of 2 trillion yen represents a "natural" level, stating that this would be roughly equivalent to the amount of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) the Bank of Japan (BOJ) purchased monthly before introducing its ultra-loose monetary policy in April 2013. Benjamin Shatil, a senior economist at JPMorgan Chase in Tokyo, said, "As the BOJ moves further away from the market and begins to end the liquidity expansion that has lasted for over a decade, the bank is walking a fine line in trying to contain volatility." Shatil added that the BOJ's gradual exit from its ultra-loose monetary policy not only has implications for Japan but also for the global bond market. "The market's focus is increasingly shifting from the BOJ's policy rate normalization path to the pace of its balance sheet reduction," he said. Krishna Bhimavarapu, an Asia-Pacific economist at State Street Global Advisors, believes that the BOJ will not make any changes to its existing tapering plan before the first quarter of next year, marking a small victory for the BOJ "as the market does not seem to need immediate help to cope with the recent surge in long-term JGB yields." Following the BOJ's latest statement at noon, the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.55%, the yen strengthened 0.13% against the US dollar to 144.55, and the 10-year JGB yield climbed 3 basis points to 1.491%.

China Communications Construction Real Estate sold its entire real estate development business in a package deal for 1 yuan. *ST Zhongdi (000736.SZ) released a report (draft) on the material asset sale and related party transaction on June 16, stating that the company intends to transfer the assets and liabilities related to its real estate development business to its controlling shareholder, China Communications Real Estate Group Co., Ltd., at a transaction price of 1 yuan. According to the restructuring draft, the assets to be transferred cover the entire chain of real estate development business, including controlling and participating stakes in real estate development enterprises, corresponding receivables, and liabilities. Additionally, according to the asset appraisal report, as of December 31, 2024, the net book value of the target assets was -3.919 billion yuan, which was appraised at -2.976 billion yuan, representing an appraisal increase of 24.06%. "From the financial data disclosed by China Communications Construction Real Estate, it can be seen that the company is transferring a massive package of negative assets, which explains why the transaction is priced at a symbolic 1 yuan. The core objective is to divest the heavy burden of negative assets," noted Yan Yuejin, Deputy Dean of the E-House China Research Institute. "The 1-yuan pricing is essentially about divesting negative assets," a senior investment banker commented. "To some extent, this is equivalent to the parent company, China Communications Construction Group, providing support to the publicly listed firm by bearing a significant amount of negative assets." Regarding this material asset sale, China Communications Construction Real Estate stated that the real estate development industry, in which the target assets are engaged, has high capital demands and a large scale of liabilities. After the completion of this transaction, the relevant target assets will no longer be included in the consolidated financial statements of the publicly listed firm, which will transition from a "heavy" to a "light" model. It is expected that the total assets and revenue scale of the publicly listed firm will decrease significantly. Industry insiders pointed out that behind this transaction priced at just 1 yuan lies a central state-owned enterprise real estate company deeply mired in losses and on the brink of delisting, undertaking a "drastic" strategic retreat to survive. "In recent years, the real estate market has undergone continuous and profound adjustments, and the real estate development business has dragged down the performance of some publicly listed firms," said Liu Shui, Director of Corporate Research at the China Index Academy. China Communications Construction Real Estate, a central state-owned enterprise, has also been dragged down by its development business, not only incurring losses for two consecutive years but also facing delisting risks. Financial reports show that in 2022, 2023, and 2024, the net profits attributable to the parent company of China Communications Construction Real Estate were 34 million yuan, -1.611 billion yuan, and -5.179 billion yuan, respectively. Alongside the decline in net profit, the sales scale of China Communications Construction Real Estate has also shrunk significantly. In 2022, 2023, and 2024, the sales amounts of China Communications Construction Real Estate were 45.882 billion yuan, 37.3 billion yuan, and 15.64 billion yuan, respectively. Financial data released by the company showed that as of December 31, 2024, CCCC Real Estate had total assets of RMB 107.698 billion and net assets attributable to shareholders of publicly listed firms of -RMB 3.579 billion. In accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Stock Listing Rules," its shares were subject to delisting risk warnings (*ST) on April 16, 2025. "After two consecutive years of losses, if it cannot completely reverse its fundamentals in the short term, delisting is almost a foregone conclusion. Divesting heavy-asset burdens is a crucial step in winning a breathing space," said the aforementioned investment banker. "Divesting loss-making assets through this transaction will enhance the company's asset quality and create conditions for subsequent transformation and development. This transaction can improve the profitability and sustainable operating capacity of publicly listed firms and mitigate the delisting risks of publicly listed firms," said CCCC Real Estate. After shedding the heavy burden of real estate development, CCCC Real Estate announced that it would shift to "asset-light" operations. CCCC Real Estate stated that before this restructuring, the main business of the publicly listed firm was real estate development and sales. Through this restructuring, it will focus on asset-light businesses such as property services and asset management and operations (including commercial management and self-held property leasing) in the future, achieving a strategic transformation to an asset-light operating model. "Divesting the real estate development business can not only reduce the company's liabilities but also mitigate credit risks associated with the heavy-asset nature of real estate development," Liu Shui believed. Shifting the focus to an asset-light model can achieve higher profit margins and reduce the company's exposure to cyclical risks in the real estate market. However, analysts pointed out that divestment will also lead to a significant reduction in total assets and revenue scale. The key to the company's subsequent performance lies in whether the new asset-light engine can quickly take over. "For CCCC Real Estate, which is backed by a central state-owned enterprise but is mired in delisting risks, divesting its real estate business is just the beginning. Its path to revival largely depends on whether it can transform itself in the fiercely competitive red ocean of property services and asset management," said Yan Yuejin.

As international gold prices hit a record high close last Friday, market participants seem to have drawn a clear line in their choices among safe-haven assets amid the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict: gold is "shining brightly," while the US dollar and US Treasuries are "losing their luster"...

The Trump administration was ambitious in its energy policies. US Treasury Secretary Bentsen once publicly introduced his "3-3-3 Plan," which aimed to increase the real GDP growth rate to 3%, reduce the annual budget deficit from 7% of GDP to 3%, and boost US domestic oil production by 3 million barrels per day (bpd). However, economists and energy experts have warned that Bentsen's goals have little basis in reality. Despite the Trump administration's policies favoring fossil fuels, US oil production is likely to remain flat or decline, as low oil prices make it unprofitable for oil companies. Commodity experts at Standard Chartered Bank predict that US crude oil supply may decline by 158,000 bpd in 2025 and by 183,000 bpd in 2026, ending the growth momentum of the past four years under the Biden administration. Previously, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas noted in a survey that the breakeven point for US shale oil producers is a WTI crude oil price of $65 per barrel. Over the past month, WTI prices have mostly remained below this breakeven point, partly due to the OPEC+ alliance's decision to increase production. What do the data reveal? Standard Chartered Bank analyzed four reasons for its pessimism about US oil production growth from four data dimensions. First, according to the revised monthly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.488 million bpd in March. However, the average daily increase over these three months was only 30,000 bpd, compared to a growth of 270,000 bpd in 2024. The EIA, which is usually seen as optimistic about production growth, also predicts that US crude oil production will increase slightly from 13.2 million bpd in 2024 to 14 million bpd in 2027, an increase that is only about a quarter of what Bentsen promised. Secondly, according to data from energy company Baker Hughes, the number of US oil rigs has decreased by 41 this year and by 50 on a YoY basis. Part of the decline is due to improvements in drilling technology and processes, but Standard Chartered warns that this downward trend has persisted for 30 months. In addition, the number of frac crews has also plummeted to 186, a significant decline from the 300 crews during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, the number of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells has also halved from the pandemic peak in June 2020, reaching a low of 4,494 in February this year before stabilizing. The number of frac crews can serve as a supplementary indicator for measuring US shale oil and gas production, while the DUC well count may be a leading indicator of any shifts in completion activity. A decline in the DUC well count suggests that drilling activity is weakening. From a data perspective, it is evident that US energy companies have significantly reduced their investments in drilling to preserve profits and remain accountable to shareholders. The immediate impact of this decision may be a stabilization or decline in US energy production, thereby exerting upward pressure on oil prices.

The US dollar is currently in a period of volatility, and many European Central Bank (ECB) officials are calling for an opportunity to enhance the international status of the euro. For instance, Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB's Executive Board, believes that as investors turn to Europe, it is a favorable time to strengthen the global position of the euro. So far this year, investors have been selling off the US dollar, and data shows that the dollar has also been depreciating against other major currencies. At the 31st Dubrovnik Economic Conference held last Saturday (June 7), Schnabel stated that there is currently a certain opportunity to increase the international role of the euro. She added that there are signs that investors are looking to the European continent to diversify their portfolios, which she described as a "positive confidence effect." Prior to this, European policymakers, including ECB President Christine Lagarde, have also indicated that officials are exploring ways to turn the US's attacks on global trade into an advantage for the eurozone. It is worth mentioning that Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs has recently expressed optimism about the future trend of the euro. In a report, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote that the US non-farm payrolls data released last Friday aligns with the slowdown trend in the real economy and should weigh on the US dollar for some time. Strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi wrote in a June 6 report, "The depreciation of the US dollar may be entering a new phase, and we still believe this situation will continue." Goldman Sachs has also raised its three-month forecast for the euro-dollar exchange rate to 1.17, its six-month forecast to 1.20, and its 12-month forecast to 1.25, citing the slowdown in US economic activity and a shift in global investors' interests. Previously, the institution's three-month forecast for this currency pair was 1.12, its six-month forecast was 1.15, and its 12-month forecast was 1.20. Is the euro set for a "golden moment"? Last Saturday, Schnabel also mentioned that talks with financial market participants showed that investors are increasingly interested in diversifying their investments and are turning their attention to Europe, "which is another piece of good news." She also pointed out that another reason for the high profile of European markets is the expected increase in public spending on defense and infrastructure in Europe. "In the case of Germany, it has significant fiscal space, and investors are actually very positive to see that Germany has finally abandoned austerity policies." Schnabel emphasized that more investment in Europe has eased financial conditions in the region, "which is another very positive impact."She also proposed the need for a large European bond market to strengthen the euro's global standing and suggested considering joint bond issuance to fund European public goods. In recent weeks, numerous ECB officials have intensively voiced calls to accelerate the enhancement of the euro's international status. At month-end May, President Lagarde stated that Trump's unpredictable policies presented a "golden opportunity" to bolster the euro's role, urging Europe to leverage this moment to claim more financial privileges currently exclusive to the dollar. She noted these shifts "open the door for a 'global euro moment'," emphasizing that politicians should seize this opportunity. Spanish central bank governor Jose Luis Escriva also stressed during a June 8 interview, "The dollar's dominance as the international reserve currency appears to be peaking." Escriva pointed out, "The euro has potential to rival the dollar, particularly if the eurozone maintains macro-economic and institutional stability. With a robust economy and trade volumes surpassing the US, Europe could strengthen the euro's role as a reserve and reference currency in international trade still dominated by the dollar." Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel echoed similar views but cautioned against excessive erosion of dollar influence. Nagel noted on Sunday, "From Europe's perspective, we need to strengthen the euro and make the continent more attractive to foreign investors. Of course, we must also closely monitor the dollar and hope it remains stable."

According to a report from Mining.com, SolGold, a company primarily engaged in exploration and development in Ecuador, announced that it would voluntarily delist from the Toronto Stock Exchange starting June 18. The miner will continue to be listed on the London Stock Exchange and is also considering a secondary listing on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). SolGold, founded in Australia and currently headquartered in London, recently appointed Dan Vujcic as its new CEO. The former investment banker at Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, and most recently the CFO of MAC Copper, stated in an interview earlier this year that the ASX was a "natural home" for the company's copper-gold assets. The company is backed by mining giants including BHP and Newmont. It is currently advancing the development of its Cascabel copper-gold project in northern Ecuador. The project is expected to commence development as early as 2028, three to four years ahead of the previous schedule. The latest strategy involves open-pit development initially, followed by a transition to underground mining. SolGold believes that the scale of Cascabel positions it as a multi-generational asset, capable of ranking among the top 20 copper-gold mines in South America. Strategic Adjustments Accelerating the development plan is part of a broader restructuring by the company, which includes establishing a subsidiary to hold its exploration assets. The company claims to hold over 89 licenses within a high-potential copper-gold target area spanning 3,000 square kilometers. This move comes at a time when the global copper market is tightening, driven by growing demand due to copper's critical role in electrification and the scarcity of new discoveries. SolGold hopes that this restructuring and accelerated development will garner greater investor support, especially amid geopolitical instability and tariff fluctuations affecting global supply chains.

Amid the spectacle of Trump and Musk's public feud, many Wall Street traders have not forgotten that there is another major macroeconomic event on the horizon tonight: the US May non-farm payrolls data... According to the schedule, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May non-farm payrolls data at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. Over the past few months, US economic data, particularly the "hard data," has consistently demonstrated resilience. Despite ongoing concerns about policy uncertainty, the number of layoffs has remained low, and business activity has remained stable. However, many industry insiders are concerned that this situation may soon change. With the implementation of widespread tariff measures, multiple sets of economic data released by the US government this week have gradually shown signs of a slowdown. This has led many traders to place increasing importance on tonight's May non-farm payrolls report, attempting to identify signs of weakness in the labour market to gauge the timing of a US Fed interest rate cut. So, what are the market expectations for tonight's non-farm payrolls? What should investors be aware of in advance? And how will the US financial markets perform tonight? According to the median forecasts compiled by industry economists, the number of new non-farm jobs added in May is expected to slow significantly to 125,000 from the previous month, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%, and wage growth is also expected to slow slightly on a YoY basis. Below are the latest median forecasts from Wall Street for the main indicators and key sub-indicators of the May non-farm payrolls compared with the previous month: The US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for May are expected to increase by 125,000, compared with the previous value of 177,000; The US unemployment rate for May is expected to be 4.2%, unchanged from the previous value of 4.2%; The US labour force participation rate for May is expected to be 62.6%, unchanged from the previous value of 62.6%; The US average hourly earnings for May are expected to increase by 3.7% YoY, compared with the previous value of 3.8%; The US average hourly earnings for May are expected to increase by 0.3% MoM, compared with the previous value of 0.2%. In contrast to the above mainstream forecasts, CLS has also compiled some key points to note for tonight's non-farm payrolls: ① There are significant differences in investment banks' forecasts for the non-farm payrolls The estimates for tonight's non-farm payrolls range from a high of +190,000 to a low of +75,000; ② "Whisper numbers" circulating in the market have declined as the data release date approaches Whisper numbers are unofficial and unpublished forecasts circulating among Wall Street professionals, often disclosed to VIP clients of brokerage firms. Currently, the whisper number forecast for non-farm payrolls has dropped to 110,000 people. ③ A series of leading indicators ahead of the non-farm payrolls data have generally underperformed Part of the reason for the decline in the aforementioned "whisper number" is clearly the poor performance of a series of leading indicators for non-farm payrolls released earlier this week, ahead of tonight's non-farm payrolls night. In particular, the ADP employment data on Wednesday and the initial jobless claims data on Thursday were extremely dismal. According to a report released by US payroll processing company ADP on Wednesday, as signs of weakness emerged in the labour market, job growth in the US private sector nearly stalled in May, hitting the lowest level in more than two years—only 37,000 jobs were added that month, far below the market expectation of 110,000. A discrepancy of as much as 5 Sigmas between the reported figure and market expectations is extremely rare. This also marked the lowest monthly employment figure released by ADP since March 2023. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that, for the week ending May 31, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 247,000, higher than the market expectation of 235,000 and reaching the highest level since 2025. In addition, the employment sub-indices in the ISM surveys presented a mixed picture overall. Although the ISM manufacturing employment index increased slightly this month, it remained below the 50 mark, while the employment situation in the services sector improved, with job growth returning to expansion territory. ④ Tonight's US Department of Labor report will correct many data points from the April non-farm payrolls report The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had previously issued a notice on its official website on Tuesday, indicating that it would correct "minor errors" in many data points from the April non-farm payrolls report when releasing the May non-farm employment report on Friday. The notice stated, "Due to minor errors in weights resulting from the introduction of a redesigned Current Population Survey (CPS) sample, some estimates for April 2025 will be revised on June 6, 2025." However, while past non-farm payrolls data will be corrected, major labour market sub-indices such as the unemployment rate, labour force participation rate, and employment-to-population ratio will remain unaffected. ⑤ Expectations for an interest rate cut ahead of the non-farm payrolls data have increased somewhat As reported by Caixin earlier this morning, due to the poor performance of multiple sets of US economic data on Wednesday, market expectations for an interest rate cut have rapidly increased. Currently, the market has fully priced in the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the US Fed this year. Of course, this expectation for an interest rate cut is actually at a rather sensitive juncture. The well-known financial blog website Zerohedge has analyzed that any upside surprise in non-farm payrolls data could lead to another market reversal—no longer expecting two interest rate cuts within the year, while any downside surprise could trigger concerns about an economic recession and impact risk assets. ⑥ How will non-farm payrolls data affect financial markets? In the forward-looking forecasts of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase teams, both generally expect that the better the non-farm payrolls data is tonight, the more favorable it will be for the market; on the other end, JPMorgan Chase's Andrew Tyler team believes that if the data falls below 100,000, it could potentially end the current bull market in U.S. stocks... Below are the five scenarios forecasted by the JPMorgan Chase team: ① Non-farm payrolls exceed 170,000: This is the first tail-risk scenario. A figure of 170,000 can to some extent be considered as hiring demand driven by demand boost or seasonal contingencies. If employment further reaches 250,000 people, it may be seen as the economy reaccelerating, with the trade war at least not having a substantial impact on the labour market, thereby forcing the bond market to reprice for higher yields and eliminating the one or two interest rate cuts that the market has already priced in. The probability of this scenario occurring tonight is 5%, and the S&P 500 index will rise by 0.5%-2.5% as a result. ② Non-farm payrolls are between 140,000 and 170,000: This would be the economy's "Goldilocks scenario." The probability of this scenario occurring tonight is 25%, and the S&P 500 index will rise by 1.5%-2% as a result. ③ Non-farm payrolls are between 115,000 and 135,000: This is also the current mainstream market expectation. Even at the lower end of this range (115,000), it would be sufficient to sustain the current market rally, but attention should be paid to the unemployment rate trend. If the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, the intraday gain of the S&P 500 index may converge to the lower end of the estimate for this scenario (0.25%), while also indicating that the unemployment rate may accelerate its climb at a rate of 0.1-0.2 percentage points per month, potentially worsening after the full impact of the trade war becomes apparent. However, it should be noted that given the almost weekly changes in trade policies, any forecast is subject to uncertainty. The probability of this scenario occurring tonight is 40%, and the S&P 500 index will rise by 0.25%-1% as a result. ④ Non-farm payrolls are between 100,000 and 115,000: When non-farm payrolls data falls below 100,000, the market will face a real test—most people will view it as an inevitable signal of a recession. The unemployment rate and wage growth also affect the outcome in this range—the worst-case scenario in this range is that the data only reaches 100,000, the unemployment rate rises to 4.3% or 4.4%, and wages decline. Overall, there is a 25% probability of this scenario occurring tonight, with the S&P 500 index expected to move between a 1.25% decline and a 0.5% increase. ⑤ Non-farm payrolls data is below 100,000. This is the second tail-risk scenario, which could potentially end the current US bull market. Economic recessions are a typical cause of bull market endings, and data below 100,000 would put the entire market on "recession alert." There is a 5% probability of this scenario occurring tonight, with the S&P 500 index expected to decline by 2%-3%. JPMorgan Chase concluded, "Current market risks remain skewed to the upside, as we believe the market is in a 'good news is good news' macro environment. Positioning suggests investors are net short, expecting a trade war to eventually lead to an economic downturn; some believe the US is heading toward a recession or even stagflation, while the US Fed will remain on hold. Additionally, if the deficit-expanding tax/budget bill is passed, it will deplete the US fiscal reserves to combat a recession or stagflation. However, our tactical view is more measured, as we believe economic resilience will persist in the near term." Coincidentally, Goldman Sachs currently makes a similar "good data is good news, bad data is bad news" prediction regarding the impact of tonight's non-farm payrolls data on US stocks. Goldman Sachs itself forecasts 110,000 for tonight's non-farm payrolls. Data significantly below expectations could lead to a 1.5% decline in the S&P 500 index, while data significantly exceeding expectations could drive US stocks up by over 1%.