Silver has seen one of the sharpest pullbacks in recent years within just a few weeks. From the high of US$97.30 on March 2, the price fell to US$61.21 by March 23, losing around 37%. For the market, this was an abrupt break from the previous momentum.

[Shanghai aluminum futures consolidated narrowly during the night session, with slow downstream resumption of work leading to volatile aluminum prices] On the fundamentals, seasonal pressure remains prominent. On the supply side, new aluminum projects in the domestic market are steadily ramping up production, while the proportion of liquid aluminum conversion remains temporarily low. On the demand side, post-holiday operating rates of downstream processing materials show a steady recovery pace. However, under the influence of seasonal supply exceeding demand and some cargo backlog at railway stations, it is expected that the peak inventory of aluminum ingots domestically after the holiday will exceed 1.35 million mt, hitting a new high in nearly five years, which will be an important factor suppressing price rises. Overall, in the short term, Shanghai aluminum futures will continue a volatile pattern.

(Washington, D.C. – February 10, 2026) After posting its strongest annual performance since 1979 last year, silver prices continued to set new highs in 2026, fueled by rising investor interest.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Escalating International Trade Frictions May Limit Domestic Price Declines Due to Resilient Consumption] Macro side, escalating China-US trade tensions and EU's concerns over US aluminum tariff hikes (to 50%) intensified market uncertainties. However, China's May manufacturing PMI rebound and improved export indicators provided demand support, with economic resilience potentially limiting declines. Aluminum prices faced short-term pressure, likely remaining in the doldrums. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminum operating capacity remained stable. Notably, increased liquid aluminum alloying ratios at some north China smelters reduced ingot casting volumes, affecting arrivals at major consumption hubs. Cost side, aluminum production costs rose WoW, with the average immediate complete cost reaching approximately 17,200 yuan/mt as of last Thursday, up 258 yuan/mt WoW. This 1.5% WoW increase primarily stemmed from ore supply disruptions driving alumina prices higher, squeezing smelter margins. Demand side, seasonal weakness emerged in some downstream sectors, with PV-related aluminum demand declining and automotive material demand expected to soften mid-to-late June. Construction aluminum demand remained lackluster, though aluminum wire and cable operating rates stayed elevated thanks to State Grid orders. Overall, while domestic macro sentiment remained positive, overseas uncertainties persisted. Fundamentals-wise, faster-than-expected aluminum ingot inventory drawdowns supported prices and spot premiums. Though seasonal weakness appeared in certain industries, the overall demand decline proved milder than anticipated, maintaining resilience. Subsequent focus should center on inventory and demand dynamics, with domestic aluminum prices likely to fluctuate rangebound amid mixed factors.

As of April 18, the closing price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was 125,600 yuan/mt. Nickel prices fluctuated and recovered during the week, with a 3.544% increase compared to the closing price on April 11. The closing price mainly ranged between 123,090-126,030 yuan/mt. Macro perspective: Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish stance and the recent tariff policy have somewhat eased market sentiment shocks. However, the uncertainty of tariff policies remains a macro risk, and attention should be paid to domestic macro policy responses. Raw material perspective: The Indonesian government announced that the PNBP policy for nickel royalties will be officially implemented on April 26. The royalty will be levied only once in the industry chain, and the market has already fully anticipated this policy. The main impact on nickel prices lies in the marginal increase in costs. Indonesian nickel ore prices remain firm, and with the implementation of the PNBP policy, nickel ore prices may increase by $1-2/wmt. For nickel sulphate, MHP spot orders have been tight recently, and nickel sulphate prices have remained stable under cost-based pricing. Supply and demand perspective: Downstream restocking demand has been released earlier. Last week, spot transactions of refined nickel were moderate, and the overall supply of refined nickel remained loose, with the industry still in a surplus situation. Last week, China's social inventory of refined nickel in 27 warehouses increased by 184 mt to 43,080 mt, a 0.43% increase. Among them, warrant inventory increased by 627 mt to 25,091 mt; LME nickel inventory increased by 36 mt to 204,528 mt, a 0.02% increase. Market outlook and investment advice: In summary, the impact of tariffs on macro sentiment has eased, and the implementation of Indonesia's nickel PNBP policy is imminent. The expected marginal increase in costs provides some support for nickel prices. However, with nickel valuations already recovered and fundamentals unlikely to improve significantly, the room for further rebound in nickel prices is limited. It is expected to mainly fluctuate within the 120,000-130,000 yuan range, with caution against repeated tariff policy changes. Risk warnings: Domestic consumption exceeds expectations; policy changes in major nickel supply countries; overseas macro risks; unexpected changes in Indonesian nickel ore supply.

Market Review Last week, tin prices fluctuated, with the SHFE tin index open interest decreasing by 4,601 lots to 67,700 lots as of April 18. The SHFE SN2505 contract closed at 256,250 yuan/mt, up 0.82%, with a weekly fluctuation range of 253,660-262,390 yuan/mt. Macro Front On the macro front, tariff policies remain in a state of flux, with the US increasing tariffs on China to 245%. Market sentiment has relatively eased, but the impact of tariffs may lead to a slowdown in global demand growth, affecting the continued rebound in market risk appetite. However, the weakening of actual demand takes time, and in the short term, before significant economic data shows a downturn, macro pressures are relatively limited. Continued attention is needed on the negotiation game between China and the US, as well as domestic proactive macro policies. Industry Front On the supply side, Alphamin, a tin mining company in the DRC, has announced the resumption of tin ore production, slightly easing the pressure of tight raw material supply. However, the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State remains uncertain. After the earthquake at the end of March, mine area meetings were postponed, and blocked transportation channels have intensified market concerns about ore shortages. Currently, tin concentrate TCs remain low, and attention is needed on changes in China's tin ore import data. On the demand side, the US White House announced an increase in tariffs on China from 125% to 245%, affecting key areas such as machinery, electronics, and semiconductors. This policy directly impacts the export expectations of China's electronics industry chain. In terms of inventory, relatively low tin prices have improved downstream consumption, leading to inventory reduction, but sustainability still needs to be observed. As of April 18, SHFE tin ingot inventory was 9,571 mt, down 806 mt MoM; SMM domestic tin ingot social inventory was 10,485 mt, down 1,177 mt MoM. Logical Analysis and Investment Advice Under the fluctuating tariff policies, overall market sentiment remains cautious, and tin prices struggle to rebound. The resumption of tin ore production in the DRC has slightly eased the pressure of tight raw material supply, but the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State remains uncertain. Currently, tin concentrate TCs remain low, and attention is needed on changes in domestic tin ore import data. With no significant imbalance in supply and demand, short-term prices are expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 253,000-263,000.

Market Review As of April 11, the closing price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was 121,300 yuan/mt. Nickel prices rebounded from an oversold position during the week, with a 4.74% decline compared to the closing price on April 3. The closing price mainly fluctuated between 118,640 and 121,600 yuan/mt. Logical Perspective Macro side: The US imposed reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which far exceeded expectations. In the first half of the week, the market traded on recession and risk aversion. Later, the US suspended tariff hikes on some countries, and market risk appetite began to recover from Thursday. Under the US President's "capricious" style, tariffs will dominate the macro narrative in April. Attention should be paid to subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations, re-export trade, and domestic policies to stimulate domestic demand. Raw material side: The Indonesian government once again announced that the PNBP policy on nickel resources would be implemented in the second week of April, and the expected increase in costs for the nickel stainless steel industry chain may soon materialize. On the nickel ore side, the supply of nickel ore futures remained tight, and Indonesian nickel ore prices remained firm. On the nickel sulphate side, battery-grade nickel sulphate prices slightly declined due to reduced cost support and cautious downstream观望. Supply and demand side: Last week, the center of nickel prices significantly shifted downward, and downstream restocking was released, leading to a decline in social inventory of refined nickel. China's social inventory of refined nickel in 27 warehouses decreased by 2,549 mt to 42,896 mt, a drop of 5.61%. Among this, warrant inventory decreased by 2,907 mt to 24,464 mt, while LME nickel inventory increased by 4,242 mt to 204,492 mt, a rise of 2.12%. Market Outlook and Investment Advice In summary, with a marginal easing of the global trade war, short-term macro sentiment may improve. Coupled with the strong expectation of the implementation of Indonesia's nickel PNBP policy in the near term, short-term nickel prices may recover upward. The main fluctuation range for the most-traded contract this week is expected to be 116,000-127,000 yuan/mt, with caution against repeated tariff policies. Risk Warning Domestic consumption exceeds expectations; policy changes in major nickel-supplying countries; overseas macro risks; unexpected changes in Indonesian nickel ore supply.

【SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Market Gradually Trading US Tariff Expectations Copper Prices Maintain Fluctuating Trend】On March 24, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current month 2504 contract were at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with the average price on par with the contract, up 15 yuan/mt MoM. According to SMM, over the weekend, national social inventory continued to decline. With the current inventory levels, the market still harbors supply concerns for Q2, and downstream buying interest is gradually warming...

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Freeport Resumes Copper Concentrate Export Approval, Copper Prices Edged Up Overnight] Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,829, dipped to a low of $9,798.5 during the session, then fluctuated upward to a high of $9,880, and finally closed at $9,864.5. Compared to the previous close ($9,793), it rose by $71.5, an increase of 0.73%, with a trading volume of 14,286 lots and an open interest of 296,460 lots. Overnight, SHFE copper 2505 contract opened at 80,270 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 79,970 yuan/mt during the session, then fluctuated upward to a high of 80,380 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 80,370 yuan/mt. Compared to the previous close (80,520 yuan/mt), it increased by 260 yuan, a rise of 0.32%, with a trading volume of 33,634 lots and an open interest of 231,565 lots.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight US Dollar Index Rebounded, Copper Prices Under Pressure and Declined] On March 10, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE 2503 contract were quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with an average price at a discount of 5 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. According to SMM, domestic social warehouses continued destocking over the past weekend, and consumption has shown signs of picking up since March. Expectations of tight supply have been repeatedly mentioned recently, and currently, excluding warehouse warrants, the market's available circulating supply is scarce...