This week, finished steel continued its gradual decline, while raw materials began to stabilize, with coking coal rebounding to some extent. During the week, rumors about a coal mine accident in Shanxi and customs clearance restrictions at the Mongolian border spread, boosting sentiment. Coupled with the China Mineral Resources talks, the raw materials side rebounded from lows. In the second half of the week, as rumors of maintenance at steel mills across various regions emerged, negative feedback expectations intensified somewhat, and raw materials pulled back. Approaching the weekend, however, the 10th round of coke price increases was initiated, pushing coking coal and coke futures higher. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics of end-users became increasingly evident, with the market restocking at low prices as needed. With spot prices remaining relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread continued to widen...

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of June 29 – July 3, 2026. Weak nickel and a softening off-season demand backdrop offset firm mill pricing and low inventories, steadying the benchmark contract near RMB 14,655/mt

Rebar prices drifted lower this week. The nationwide average price now stands at 3,089 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt WoW from last Friday. Supply side, steel mill margins continued to shrink. A few blast furnace steel mills have gradually arranged maintenance and production cut plans, but most are still operating at previous levels. Attention will remain on the extent of production cuts. Among EAF steel mills in different regions, margins diverged slightly. In southwest China, electricity price subsidies during the rainy season kept margins relatively favorable, and most mills maintained previous output levels for now. However, in east China, adjustments to critical peak electricity pricing during the summer led to shorter operating hours, while in south China, high inventory pressure at steel mills also prompted reduced operating hours. Overall EAF production declined. Demand side, intermittent rainfall in east China this week slowed project construction progress. In central and northwest China, low-priced inflows from other regions encouraged downstream buyers to adopt a wait-and-see stance. Overall transaction performance was mediocre. Inventory side, total inventory continued to edge up. Given weak demand expectations, social inventory will remain in a phase of periodic accumulation. Looking ahead, supply-side margins turned worse, weakening production incentives, but soft demand provides limited support to bottom prices. While raw material side saw some sentiment-driven momentum, the underlying rebar fundamentals remain weak. Short-term market prices are likely to consolidate near the bottom. Future attention will be on the pace of inventory buildup.

The most-traded HRC contract fluctuated today, closing at 3,279 with a slight intraday decline of 0.3%. This week, cold-rolled and hot-rolled prices continued to weaken, and overall transaction volumes remained low. In terms of supply, the impact from mill line maintenance decreased WoW, leading to a slight increase in total HRC production. On the demand side, apparent demand dropped MoM. Regarding inventory, according to SMM statistics, HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) reached 4.3757 million mt, up 84,500 mt or 1.97% WoW, and up 43.10% YoY on a lunar calendar basis. By region, all markets saw inventory buildup WoW, with the Northeast market recording a relatively large buildup. Cost side, the ninth round of coke price increases was implemented this week. Influenced by raw material market news, costs showed a pattern of strength early on and weakness later. Looking ahead, although the market has initiated a tenth round of coke price hikes, hot metal output has slowly pulled back from its peak, and cost support is expected to remain flat compared to earlier estimates. From the HRC supply-demand perspective, the current imbalance continues to accumulate. Amid off-season demand, inventory pressure is expected to persist and weigh on prices. Combined with remaining cost-side support, downside room is relatively small. HRC prices are likely to show a bottom-consolidation pattern next week, with the most-traded HRC contract moving in the 3,250–3,330 range.

Nickel prices consolidated at lows and hit bottom this week. Early in the week, expectations for further US Fed interest rate hikes and a stronger US dollar weighed on the most-traded SHFE nickel contract, keeping it under pressure around 124,000 yuan/mt. Mid-week, US June non-farm payrolls data significantly missed expectations, triggering a sharp reversal in macro sentiment. Rate hike expectations cooled abruptly, the US dollar index pulled back quickly, and nickel prices rebounded slightly, leaving the weekly decline at 1.2%. The LME nickel 3M contract also traded under pressure this week, breaching the $17,000 level and falling nearly 2% WoW. In the spot market, SMM #1 refined nickel averaged 127,080 yuan/mt this week, down 4,500 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums trended higher this week, climbing to around 2,200 yuan/mt, while mainstream electrodeposited nickel discounts held steady in the 400-400 yuan/mt range. On spot transactions, the sustained drop in nickel prices encouraged bargain-hunting by end-users, but after some downstream players had already stockpiled during the earlier price decline, overall weekly trading activity was moderate. On the macro front, US Labor Department data on July 3 showed that non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, roughly half the 113,000 expected and well below the downwardly revised 129,000 for May. The sharper-than-expected cooling in non-farm payrolls data prompted a more cautious assessment of the employment outlook and led investors to re-evaluate the Fed’s monetary policy path. Rate hike expectations cooled markedly, the US dollar index fell to a two-week low, and the US Treasury yield curve steepened steadily. Inventory side, bonded zone inventory in Shanghai stood at around 2,700 mt, flat WoW. China’s social inventory stood at approximately 130,000 mt, a WoW buildup of about 1,100 mt. Nickel prices are currently caught between macro disruptions and weak industry fundamentals. In the short term, recovering macro sentiment supports a rebound, but the upside is still capped by high inventory pressure. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt next week.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Consolidates Amid Persistent Macro News Disturbances; Stainless Steel Spot Prices Remain Firm in Off-Season with Sluggish Trading According to SMM on July 3, SS futures presented an overall pattern of holding up well. US non-farm payrolls data came in below expectations and inflation expectations declined, prompting non-ferrous metals to strengthen overall. SS followed suit and rose in tandem. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,600 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the decline in SS futures paused temporarily, while current social inventory pressure on stainless steel was not significant. With steel mills holding prices firm, spot offers remained firm. Most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was quoted at 14,655 yuan/mt, up 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 315-865 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained unchanged; cold-rolled 304/2B mill edge coils, average prices in Wuxi and Foshan both held flat; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi were flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quotes in Wuxi were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan fell 50 yuan/mt. This week, the tug-of-war between macro and industrial logic dominated the futures trend. US inflation data pulled back, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes further cooled, and the US dollar index weakened, overall boosting valuations of commodities and non-ferrous metals and providing macro support for the metals sector. However, sentiment on the industrial side remained bearish, the issue of Indonesia's nickel ore supplementary quotas remained unresolved, and the market held relatively...

China's Sulphuric Acid Market Regional Divergence Intensifies, Index Continues to Strengthen [SMM Sulphuric Acid Weekly Review]

[SMM Magnesium Express]This week, social inventories increased by 1.83% month-on-month, showing a slight accumulation trend overall. Regional inventory disparities were pronounced: in Shaanxi, traders actively settled orders, leading to a minor inventory drawdown; in Shanxi's production area, new supplies flowed into warehouses. Meanwhile, export orders at Tianjin Port were sluggish, hindering external sales and resulting in inventory buildup in both regions, ultimately driving a modest rise in social inventories. Currently, downstream end-user procurement remains limited, and circulation supplies are digesting slowly, with inventory pressure likely to continue suppressing the rebound space for magnesium prices.

The overall market remained sluggish this week. Although the July consumption peak season has arrived and battery cell production schedules saw WoW growth, high inventories in the cathode and upstream sectors absorbed the incremental demand, preventing it from transmitting upstream along the industry chain. Hence, shipment pressure on cobalt salt plants and cathode material plants remained unabated. From the market sentiment perspective, the influence of supply-side disruptions has weakened noticeably. Mid-week, the DRC announced the cancellation of unused Q2 quotas, which triggered only brief fluctuations that morning before quickly subsiding, indicating that market focus has shifted from the policy front to the pace of own demand and inventory digestion. While the quota cancellation brought some changes to H2 fundamentals, it merely shifted the supply-demand pattern from very loose to relatively loose and did not fundamentally reverse market fundamentals. On the price front, the trends for cobalt chloride, Co3O4, and LCO were largely consistent, all in a consolidation phase. For cobalt chloride, smelter quotations began to stabilize, with some firms raising slightly to test the market. However, under inventory pressure and the “rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn” sentiment, downstream procurement remained cautious, actual transactions were limited, and downside room in the short term was small, keeping prices largely stable. Co3O4 moved sideways following cobalt salt; after the interim reporting window, previous selling pressure was largely released, and quotations tended to stabilize, but downstream cathode plants continued to push for lower prices, and transactions remained scarce. For LCO, in addition to being dragged down by weak upstream Co3O4 prices, lithium carbonate prices recently rose significantly, but downstream enterprises’ inventories buffered the impact of raw material fluctuations on quotations, leaving overall prices relatively stable. Overall, the core issue facing the industry chain currently is that previously accumulated inventories have not yet been fully digested. Even though end-user battery cell demand has improved marginally, it will still take time for this to transmit upstream. In the short term, price rebound will be under considerable pressure, fundamentally because market inventories are excessively high, severely suppressing procurement demand for upstream products.

[SMM Analysis] Weak Futures and Sluggish Off-Season Trading Lead to Slight Stainless Steel Inventory Buildup SMM, July 2: This week, social inventory of stainless steel continued a marginal buildup trend, with inventories in core markets edging up slightly. The buildup remained manageable and pressure has not become evident yet. Total inventory in the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan edged up, rising from 932,800 mt on June 25 to 935,400 mt on July 2, up 0.28% WoW. The buildup maintained a mild pace, with overall inventory pressure remaining relatively limited. The stainless steel market was in the traditional consumption off-season this week, with trading remaining persistently sluggish. Stainless steel futures stayed in the doldrums during the week, compounded by uncertainty over the additional Indonesian nickel ore quota. Raw material uncertainty disturbed market expectations, undermining confidence in the near-term outlook among industry participants. Downstream end-users were gripped by a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with purchasing willingness staying weak. Spot market trading remained subdued. On the spot side, mainstream stainless steel mills showed a willingness to hold prices firm. Spot prices saw limited declines and remained resilient overall, which to some extent stabilized downstream restocking sentiment and prevented a concentrated panic-driven wait-and-see mode from taking hold in the market. Supply side, some stainless steel mills implemented production cuts, leading to a marginal contraction in market supply, which helped mitigate the extent of inventory buildup from the source. Overall, weak rigid demand in the traditional consumption off-season, weak futures, and raw material uncertainty that dragged on market confidence were the core drivers of the slight stainless steel inventory buildup this week. Meanwhile, steel mills’ strong price-holding that supported spot sentiment and production cuts that reduced supply were the reasons why the buildup was modest and inventory pressure …