SMM May 15 update: Cobalt product prices remained generally stable this week, with only refined cobalt and cobalt chloride prices edging down slightly, though overall fluctuations were relatively small. Among them, cobalt chloride market activity declined further, with scarce inquiries becoming a common feedback... SMM compiled the spot price fluctuations of cobalt products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, spot refined cobalt prices edged down 500 yuan/mt this week before stabilizing temporarily. As of May 15, spot refined cobalt was quoted at 421,500-428,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 425,000 yuan/mt, down 0.12% from 425,500 yuan/mt on May 8. Fundamentals side, supply side, according to SMM, smelter quotes remained stable, while traders lowered the spot-futures price spread of mainstream brands to a premium of 7,000-8,000 yuan/mt to recoup funds. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, strictly controlling raw material inventory levels. Price spread structure side, the metal price spread between refined cobalt and lower-priced cobalt salts continued to stay at a relatively low level, limiting enterprises' enthusiasm for producing refined cobalt through the re-dissolution process. In the short term, SMM expects refined cobalt prices to continue consolidating, with future upside still dependent on effective price boosts from cobalt salts. Cobalt salts ( and): : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, spot cobalt sulphate remained steady at 93,200-95,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 94,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, on the cobalt sulphate supply side this week, mainstream brand quote centers remained in the 93,000-96,000 yuan/mt range. Boosted by the rebound in refined cobalt prices, some smelters and traders that had previously offered discounts to facilitate shipments raised their quotes slightly, and low-priced cargoes below 90,000 yuan/mt decreased significantly. Demand side, downstream enterprises still focused on digesting earlier inventory, with low enthusiasm for purchasing, and only a few with rigid demand restocked small volumes at lower prices. Notably, some Co3O4 enterprises increased their inquiry frequency recently, with purchasing sentiment showing signs of recovery. Production schedule side, both ternary and LCO enterprises saw restorative MoM growth in May production schedules. It is expected that as downstream restocking demand gradually releases going forward, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to see a phased rebound and recovery. : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot prices edged down by 100 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week and then stabilized. As of May 15, cobalt chloride spot prices stood at 114,000–117,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 115,500 yuan/mt, down 0.09% from May 8. Spot market: According to SMM, cobalt chloride market activity further declined this week, with scarce inquiries being a common feedback. Supply side, some top-tier players notably slowed down their shipment pace recently, with liquidity pressure emerging and quotes slightly softening; meanwhile, small and medium-sized producers had already proactively lowered prices earlier due to capital recovery and shipment pressure, and their current quotes have gradually stabilized with extremely limited room for further reduction. Demand side, downstream Co3O4 enterprises, constrained by their own significant shipment pressure, showed weak willingness to purchase cobalt chloride; in contrast, cathode material and battery cell segments, due to continued inventory depletion, recently began to release some restocking intentions. Overall, the market still lacked directional breakthrough momentum. Although sporadic low-price transactions occurred, they were unlikely to substantially impact overall pricing, constrained by enterprises' performance targets, capital conditions, and shipment volumes. Currently, downward momentum is insufficient, and raw material costs provide relatively strong bottom support. Cobalt chloride market is expected to remain largely stable in the near term, with substantive changes potentially awaiting late May . : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, Co3O4 spot prices remained steady at 360,000–367,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 363,500 yuan/mt. Spot market: According to SMM, the Co3O4 market continued its previously sluggish pattern this week. Top-tier players slightly lowered their quotes, but cost support for Co3O4 remained effective, underpinned by periodically tight supply of cobalt intermediate products and firm cobalt chloride prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued to purchase as needed, restocking in small quantities mainly based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity maintained at a moderate level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the key variable determining cathode material purchasing intensity. Given that market expectations for May are generally optimistic, attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can break the prolonged stable pattern and bring about periodic fluctuations. As for raw material cobalt intermediate products: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices held stable at 25.8–26.2 $/lb this week, temporarily unchanged from May 8. According to SMM, on the supply side, most suppliers held an optimistic outlook for the market, with offers continuing to hold firm above $26/lb. The demand side saw little change; as cobalt salt prices lacked upward momentum, the market maintained only small-volume purchasing as needed, with bid prices fluctuating around approximately $25.8/lb. Regarding shipments, DRC-origin cargoes remained stranded at South African ports and in overland transit. Only a few miners completed small-batch vessel bookings in April, with arrivals expected to begin in June; however, due to tight shipping capacity in Africa, the remaining large-volume cargoes may be delayed until July for concentrated arrivals. Looking ahead, as downstream orders gradually become clearer and restocking demand is progressively released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery. On the news front, on May 13, Hanrui Cobalt released its investor relations activity record. When asked about the company's cobalt powder business, Hanrui Cobalt stated that the company is a major global cobalt powder supplier, ranking among the top three in global market share. It is currently steadily increasing the product share in high-end cemented carbide and battery sectors, with client recognition continuing to strengthen. Cobalt salt gross margins have been continuously improving, and as the market recovers, capacity is released, and the product mix upgrades, profitability is expected to gradually recover. Regarding the outlook for cobalt price trends in 2026, Hanrui Cobalt stated that cobalt price trends are influenced by multiple factors. From a supply and demand perspective, with the implementation of the cobalt export quota system in the DRC, the world's largest cobalt-producing country, cobalt supply has contracted significantly, and overall supply and demand are currently in a tight balance. In addition, on May 12, SMM Vice President Shirley Wang attended the Cobalt Institute annual conference held in Madrid, Spain, and delivered a keynote speech in the opening session on the current status and outlook of China's cobalt market. Regarding cobalt price trends, she stated that although theoretical calculations suggest that in Q2 to Q3 2026, the concentrated arrival of previously backlogged cobalt intermediate products will cause the cobalt raw material supply-demand balance to temporarily reverse into an inventory buildup state, putting downward pressure on cobalt prices, the limited volume of available cobalt intermediate products in the market—constrained by inventory levels and market sales pace—will provide strong support for cobalt prices. Prices are expected to edge up after several months, but with a clear upward ceiling. She also noted that raw material inventory levels, other raw material supply (such as MHP and refined cobalt), and the shipment pace of cobalt intermediate products are the biggest uncertainty factors affecting price trends.

【SMM Copper Cathode Rod News Flash】Inventory side, raw material inventory side, enterprises purchased as needed and inventory edged down WoW; finished product inventories, under high copper prices, downstream wait-and-see sentiment intensified and cargo pick-up slowed down, finished product inventories increased WoW. SMM expected enterprises to slow down production and prioritize destocking, with operating rate pulling back 2.66 percentage points WoW to 60.84%.

This week, the lead-acid battery market largely returned to normal trading. In particular, lead prices declined at the beginning of the week, and producers purchased as needed, leading to improved activity in the spot market. However, the traditional off-season trend in the e-bike and automotive battery markets persisted, with dealers purchasing cautiously. Some enterprises, burdened by high inventory levels, considered shutting down operations again. In addition, trading in the battery wholesale market remained sluggish. Battery selling prices were relatively stable, and against the backdrop of rising costs, battery enterprises had yet to launch sales promotions on finished products.

[SMM Analysis: High Copper Prices Led to Slow Shipments and Sluggish Raw Material Consumption at Secondary Copper Rod Enterprises] According to SMM data, the operating rate of secondary copper rod was 6.84% this week, up 0.08 percentage points WoW and down 15.03 percentage points YoY. Meanwhile, the average price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,914 yuan/mt, widening by 549 yuan/mt WoW. In addition, the average discount of secondary copper rod in Jiangxi against copper futures was 1,518 yuan/mt, widening by 773 yuan/mt WoW. Based on SMM's secondary copper rod gross profit model, the average gross profit during the week was 857 yuan/mt, an increase of 477 yuan/mt......

[Recovering Transactions Underpinned the Magnesium Market as Weekly Inventory Continued to Decline] From May 8 to May 14, the weekly production of sampled magnesium plants nationwide was 23,576 mt, with a weekly operating rate of 77.4%, down 1.8% WoW.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Macro Disturbances Dragged SS Futures Lower; Low Inventory Pressure and Rigid Demand Supported Stainless Steel Spot Prices SMM, May 15 — SS futures continued to be in the doldrums. Non-ferrous metal futures extended the previous day's decline, and SS also fluctuated downward in tandem. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,825 yuan/mt. Spot market side, dragged by the persistently weak SS futures, stainless steel spot prices pulled back in tandem. However, stainless steel social inventory has been on an overall downward trend recently, and traders faced relatively small shipment pressure. Market confidence remained stable, and price declines were relatively limited. The most-traded SS contract fell and pulled back. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,890 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the range of 380-680 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell 100 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan fell 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in the Wuxi area held steady; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted stable in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. The stainless steel market was dragged by the weak and volatile futures, with notable downward pressure, but overall spot price declines remained limited, highlighting the divergence between futures and spot. Downstream end-users adopted a cautious wait-and-see stance due to macro uncertainties, with no concentrated restocking observed. However, rigid demand purchases remained solid, and the resilience of rigid demand provided a foundation for spot prices...

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Overseas Market Ore Prices Declined, Market Expectations Leaned Weak] May 14, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore market fluctuated slightly...

On May 12, 2026, Shirley Wang, SMM's Vice President, attended Cobalt Institute's Annual Conference held in Madrid, Spain. At this annual conference, SMM and the Cobalt Institute jointly hosted a sub-forum titled "China's ESG Landscape — Practical Insights for the Cobalt Value Chain ." Shirley delivered a keynote speech in the opening session on the current status and outlook of China's cobalt market, sharing insights on China's cobalt market supply-demand pattern and price trends, with a systematic analysis from three perspectives: supply structure changes, production outlook, and end-use demand. As a member of the Cobalt Institute, SMM has always been committed to working with international cobalt industry organizations, enterprises, and standard setters to build a more efficient and comprehensive cobalt industry value chain and market information system. s one of China's largest non-ferrous metals information service providers, SMM has fully leveraged its global advantages to establish a full-ecosystem value information system centered on China, covering upstream mining (DRC + Indonesia), midstream processing, downstream battery materials and trading, battery cell and battery manufacturing, and end-user new energy and consumer electronics applications. SMM has participated in the Cobalt Institute conference and delivered keynote speeches for three consecutive years. I. Market Supply Analysis 1.1 China's Total Supply and Raw Material Structure Changes Since Q2 last year, the effective supply of crude cobalt hydroxide has declined significantly . In the short term, MHP, black mass, and other raw materials are squeezing the market share of cobalt hydroxide, a trend that warrants continued attention. In terms of the raw material structure of cobalt products, in Q1 this year, cobalt hydroxide accounted for only about 10% of the raw material mix, MHP imports rose to over 15% , and recycled raw materials climbed to over 30% . Specifically, in the raw material composition of cobalt sulphate, the proportion of recycled raw materials increased significantly , with cobalt intermediate products falling to below 40% , and high-cobalt black mass reaching 30% . This structural shift reflects a profound adjustment underway in China's cobalt raw material supply. 1.2 Production Outlook China's recycled cobalt products production was approximately 24,000 mt in 2025, and is expected to approach 30,000 mt in 2026, maintaining a trend of edging up over the medium and long-term. In terms of supply of MHP, production this month was constrained by sulfur shortages , but in the long term, cobalt supply from MHP sources is expected to continue increasing. II. End-Use Demand Analysis 2.1 NEV Market Ternary market share continued to be squeezed by LFP, with overall growth limited. Meanwhile, affected by high cobalt prices and tight supply , cobalt consumption per mt of precursor declined. In Q1 this year, the weighted cobalt consumption per mt of precursor fell below 0.06 mt in metal content . Nevertheless, total cobalt demand from the NEV market continued to grow, but the growth rate was lower than previous expectations . 2.2 3C Products Market The 3C products market also faced significant pressure. Since the end of last year, sharp increases in chip prices drove up 3C product prices. In addition, to cope with cost pressure, some enterprises reduced cobalt usage in cathode materials by blending NCM , and 3C cobalt demand is expected to decline this year . However, in the medium and long-term, cobalt demand from 3C products still has room for growth. III. Price Trends and Outlook Regarding cobalt price trends, theoretical calculations suggest that in Q2 to Q3 2026, concentrated arrivals of previously backlogged cobalt intermediate products at ports will cause the cobalt raw material supply-demand balance to temporarily reverse into an inventory buildup state, putting downward pressure on cobalt prices. However, constrained by inventory levels and market sales pace , available cobalt intermediate products in the market are limited, providing strong support for cobalt prices. Prices are expected to edge up in the coming months, but there is a clear upside ceiling . She also pointed out that raw material inventory levels, other raw material supply (such as MHP, refined cobalt, etc.), and the shipments pace of cobalt intermediate products were the biggest uncertainties affecting price trends.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34-36.1 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices were relatively stable overall, with extremely limited order signing in the market. Some crystal pulling plants showed low-price purchase willingness, but top-tier manufacturers still held the floor above 35 yuan. With cost setting imminent, manufacturers had a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Wafer: Market 18X wafer prices were 0.9-0.93 yuan/piece, 210RN wafer prices were 1.00-1.03 yuan/piece, and 210N wafer prices were 1.2-1.23 yuan/piece. Recently, a top-tier enterprise completed bulk transactions of 210R wafers at 1.02 yuan/piece. Currently, except for 210N, the other two sizes had already accepted the previous round of price increases, and subsequent trends would depend on downstream cell price movements.

On May 12, 2026, SMM Vice President Wang Cong ( Shirley Wang) attended the Cobalt Institute Annual Conference held in Madrid, Spain. At this Cobalt Institute annual conference, SMM and the Cobalt Institute jointly hosted a sub-forum titled "China's ESG Landscape — Practical Insights for the Cobalt Value Chain." SMM delivered a keynote speech in the opening session on the current status and outlook of China's cobalt market, sharing insights on China's cobalt market supply-demand pattern and price trends , with a systematic analysis from three dimensions: supply structure changes, production outlook, and end-use demand. As a member of the Cobalt Institute, SMM has always been committed to working with international cobalt industry organizations, enterprises, and standard-setters to build a more efficient and comprehensive cobalt industry value chain and market information system. As one of China's largest non-ferrous metals information service providers, SMM has fully leveraged its global advantages to establish a full-ecosystem value information system centered on China, covering upstream mining (DRC + Indonesia), midstream processing, downstream battery materials and trading, battery cell and battery manufacturing, and terminal new energy and consumer electronics applications. SMM has participated in the Cobalt Institute conference and delivered keynote speeches for three consecutive years. I. Market Supply Analysis 1.1 China's Total Supply and Raw Material Structure Changes Since Q2 last year, the effective supply of crude cobalt hydroxide has declined significantly . In the short term, MHP, black mass, and other raw materials are squeezing the market share of cobalt hydroxide, a trend that warrants continued attention. In terms of the raw material structure of cobalt products, in Q1 this year, cobalt hydroxide accounted for only about 10% of the raw material structure, MHP imports rose to over 15% , and recycled raw materials climbed to over 30% . Among them, in the raw material composition of cobalt sulphate, the proportion of recycled raw materials increased significantly , with cobalt intermediate products falling to below 40% , and high-cobalt black mass reaching 30% . This structural change reflects a profound adjustment underway in China's cobalt raw material supply. 1.2 Production Outlook China's recycled cobalt products production was approximately 24,000 mt in 2025, and is expected to approach 30,000 mt in 2026, with a medium and long-term trend of edging up. In terms of MHP supply, production this month was somewhat affected by sulfur shortages in the short term, but in the long term, cobalt supply sourced from MHP is expected to continue increasing. II. End-Use Demand Analysis 2.1 NEV Market The ternary market share continued to be eroded by LFP, limiting overall growth. Meanwhile, affected by high cobalt prices and tight supply , cobalt consumption per mt of precursor declined. In Q1 this year, the weighted cobalt consumption per mt of precursor fell below 0.06 mt in metal content . Nevertheless, total cobalt demand from the NEV market continued to grow, but the growth rate was lower than previously expected . 2.2 3C Product Market The 3C product market also faced significant pressure. Since the end of last year, the sharp rise in chip prices drove up 3C product prices. In addition, to cope with cost pressure, some enterprises reduced cobalt usage in cathode materials by blending NCM , and cobalt demand for 3C applications is expected to decline this year . However, in the medium and long term, cobalt demand from 3C products still has room for growth. III. Price Trends and Outlook Regarding cobalt price trends, although theoretical calculations suggest that in Q2 to Q3 2026, concentrated arrivals of previously backlogged cobalt intermediate products at ports will cause the cobalt raw material supply-demand balance to temporarily shift to an inventory buildup state, putting downward pressure on cobalt prices, the limited amount of available cobalt intermediate products in the market, constrained by inventory levels and market sales pace , will provide strong support for cobalt prices. Prices are expected to edge up in the coming months, but there is a clear upside ceiling . She also noted that raw material inventory levels, other raw material supply (such as MHP and refined cobalt), and the shipment pace of cobalt intermediate products are the biggest uncertainties affecting price trends.