SMM August 20 news: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a premium of 110-180 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 145 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous session. SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 30-50 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous session. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 107,235 yuan/mt, up 360 yuan/mt from the previous session, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,130 yuan/mt, up 365 yuan/mt from the previous session. Spot market: Copper prices stopped falling and stabilized. As the traditional peak season approached, end-user stockpiling demand recovered, coupled with social inventory destocking in Guangdong; traders maintained high premium quotes, and with end-users ensuring delivery of peak-season orders, transaction volumes increased from yesterday. Today, purchase sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.53, up 0.14 from the previous session, and shipment sentiment was 3.09, up 0.14 from the previous session (historical data can be checked in the database). As of 11:00, the front-month contract high-quality copper reported a premium of 160 yuan/mt, standard-quality copper reported a premium of 80 yuan/mt, and SX-EW copper reported a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Overall, with downstream demand recovering and low inventory, suppliers offered high premiums, and transaction conditions were moderate due to increased stockpiling demand. > Order to view SMM metal spot historical prices > View SMM database

Construction Materials Social Inventory: According to SMM survey, the total construction materials social inventory shifted from increase to decline this period. As of August 20, 2026, SMM construction materials social inventory stood at 5.5491 million mt, destocking by 206,600 mt WoW, down 3.59%. During the survey period, futures drifted higher, and market trading sentiment improved slightly compared to the earlier period, driving the overall inventory destocking. In addition, in some regions, high water levels in waterways hindered navigation, leaving most resources still stranded in transit, causing a significant drop in actual arrivals. The combined impact led to a faster pace of social inventory destocking this period. Going forward, attention should be paid to inventory pressure from concentrated arrivals after navigation resumes. Regional Social Inventory: Currently, inventory performance across regions continued to diverge. East China stood out in destocking, mainly due to the phased shipping suspensions in Huzhou, Jiaxing and other places, which caused a sharp drop in construction materials arrivals in Hangzhou, while demand remained largely at the prior level, resulting in a notable WoW destocking. In the Northwest region, due to continuous resource outflows from local steel mills, in-province deployment decreased, and inventory continued to destock. In Southwest China, Central China, and South China, sentiment recovered intermittently driven by futures, and downstream clients' willingness to purchase strengthened slightly, edging inventory down.

According to SMM statistics, total construction steel inventory this period was 8.3259 million mt, down 217,100 mt MoM (-2.54% MoM), shifting from increase to decline. Both mill inventory and social inventory destocked to varying degrees. Social inventory destocking accelerated notably as arrivals dropped. With the dock closure now lifted, subsequent concentrated arrivals of construction steel may lead to social inventory accumulation.

[Aluminum Social Inventory Destocking Underpins Futures, Short-Term Prices to Consolidate Within Range] Overall, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly consolidate in the short term, with upside room likely to be suppressed by production resumption expectations.

[Macro Support Combined With Inventory Destocking: Aluminum Prices Consolidate on a Strong Note] Overall, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note in the short term, but upside room will be somewhat capped by expectations of production resumptions.

It is understood that as of August 13, in-factory inventory of major primary lead delivery brands stood at 20,900 mt, down 1,300 mt WoW. As some primary lead smelters underwent maintenance, regional supply of lead ingot tightened somewhat, and with some cargo moving into the market, smelters' in-factory inventory pressure eased. However, lead prices trended upward overall this week; downstream enterprises were wary of high prices and stayed on the sidelines, making cautious purchases. Spot market transactions were lackluster, and inventory destocking at primary lead smelters was limited. In addition, as lead prices rebounded, losses at secondary lead enterprises gradually narrowed, and some enterprises showed signs of resuming production, which diverted some downstream just-in-time procurement and also somewhat constrained inventory destocking at primary lead smelters.

July Price Review Source: SMM In July 2026, China’s non-oriented electrical steel market trended weaker, with prices across all grades starting to drift lower. Downstream home appliance and general motor industries entered the traditional off-season, and end manufacturers mostly adopted hand-to-mouth purchasing with limited willingness for bulk stockbuilding. Meanwhile, steel mills maintained relatively ample supply, leading to looser supply-demand balance and mounting inventory pressure on traders. Pervasive market caution widened spot negotiation ranges. July marked the start of the current downward price cycle, shifting market sentiment from earlier firm high levels to a weakening trajectory. Fundamental Analysis Source: SMM Supply Side Compared with July, the production scheduling mix of domestic non-oriented electrical steel will continue to optimize in August. The share of medium & low grades will edge down from 68% to 66%, high grades will stay flat at 19%, and new-energy dedicated grades will rise from 13% to 15%. Steel mills keep reallocating production capacity toward materials for new-energy motors while proactively cutting output of conventional medium & low grades. Nevertheless, despite lower scheduled output proportion for medium & low grades, overall spot supply in the market remains relatively sufficient. Traditional home appliance and general motor sectors are stuck in demand off-season with no improvement in end-users’ hand-to-mouth buying. Competitive pressure persists for mainstream medium & low grade products such as B50A800, lacking solid price support. The market will continue the weak trend seen since July. Source: Publicly Available Data Demand Side Home appliance output showed divergent performance in June. Air conditioner production fell year-on-year, while washing machine, refrigerator and TV output posted no notable growth. The traditional home appliance sector entered a phase of subdued demand. As the major downstream consumer of medium & low grade non-oriented electrical steel, the home appliance sector released limited orders and provided feeble support for this product category. The automotive sector saw structural divergence: output of new-energy passenger and commercial vehicles stayed at high levels, continuously underpinning demand for high-grade and new-energy-specific non-oriented electrical steel. In contrast, production of conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) passenger and commercial vehicles kept declining, dragging down motor procurement demand from traditional automakers. Overall demand presents a clear split: the new-energy vehicle segment lends support to high-grade electrical steel, whereas sluggish demand from home appliances and ICE vehicles fails to fuel consumption recovery of medium & low grade non-oriented electrical steel. No strong bullish catalysts emerge on the demand front. August Price Outlook Looking ahead to August 2026: On the supply side, planned output of China’s non-oriented electrical steel will keep declining, yet the scale of production cuts will narrow, concentrated mainly on medium & low grades. On one hand, prominent off-season effects persist amid stagnant downstream demand and prevailing hand-to-mouth purchasing, dampening steel mills’ production enthusiasm. On the other hand, leading producers including Baowu lifted August base prices by RMB 50/tonne, demonstrating obvious price-defending intentions. Even so, the market holds bearish expectations that prices face greater downside than upside. In addition, most manufacturers are already operating at a loss and forced to implement production cuts. On the demand side, the home appliance sector stays in a prolonged off-season with poor sentiment. Manufacturers have sharply reduced production schedules month-on-month. Weak domestic sales, phasing-out of state subsidies and consumption frontloading during the 618 shopping campaign weigh on the market, resulting in a marked sales drop. Manufacturers stated they will prioritize inventory destocking and further adjust production plans going forward. The automotive market enters its off-season with deteriorating business sentiment. After mid-year sales pushes, most automakers trimmed production schedules. At the retail end, high temperatures and frequent rainfall discourage consumer vehicle purchases. Automakers and dealers have rolled back partial sales incentives, while limited launches of new models contribute to a substantial month-on-month sales decline. On the cost side, hot rolled coil prices are projected to fluctuate weakly in August with limited upward momentum, and the monthly average price will continue to fall month-on-month. In summary, SMM forecasts that non-oriented electrical steel prices will fluctuate downward across August 2026, with certain room for price declines.

SMM August 12: The SHFE aluminum 2608 contract continued to run at high levels in morning trading. Wuxi saw more warehouse withdrawals, relatively less inbound shipments due to weather issues, and relatively active trading among traders. Today, SHFE aluminum spot premiums mainly transacted in the range of 8-10 yuan/mt to SHFE 08 contract +10 yuan/mt. In east China today, the selling sentiment index was 3.17, up 0.02 DoD; the buying sentiment index was 3.26, up 0.06 DoD. Aluminum futures prices rose for multiple consecutive days, keeping buying sentiment in the central China market sluggish. Downstream processing enterprises, constrained by insufficient off-season orders and high in-factory inventory as well as elevated aluminum prices, kept buying sentiment at low levels with a further weakening trend. As aluminum prices rose and premiums eased somewhat, suppliers' willingness to sell recovered slightly. Actual transaction prices in the central China market eventually centered around a discount of 100-140 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 08 contract. Today in central China, the selling sentiment index was 3.09, up 0.03 DoD; the buying sentiment index was 2.93, down 0.01 DoD. Inventory-wise, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas dropped 13,500 mt WoW today, with destocking seen in Guangdong and Wuxi.

[SMM Zinc Morning Brief: Low LME inventory keeps LME zinc consolidating at highs]: Overnight LME zinc opened at $3,737/mt, drifted lower at the start to a low of $3,708.5/mt, then stopped falling and rebounded to a high of $3,752/mt. Gains narrowed in late trading, and it finally closed at $3,734.5/mt, down $1/mt, or 0.03%. Trading volume decreased to 10,410 lots, and open interest rose by 2,790 lots to 250,000 lots.

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes: LME Inventory Still Low, LME Zinc Consolidates at Highs]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,711/mt, drifted lower in early trading, and hit a low of $3,687/mt during European trading hours. Then, as bears reduced their positions, LME zinc drifted higher, reaching a night session high of $3,745.5/mt, and finally closed up at $3,735.5/mt, gaining $37.5/mt or 1.01%. Trading volume dropped to 11,048 lots, and open interest decreased by 6,595 lots to 247,000 lots.