The ongoing delay by the White House on potential refined copper import tariffs under President Donald Trump is accelerating structural dislocations across the global physical copper market. Although the statutory timeline for U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to deliver a recommendation has lapsed without a public ruling, the regulatory ambiguity itself has become a primary driver of global trade dynamics. By keeping the tariff threat active, the U.S. has sustained an elevated delivery premium that continues to incentivize aggressive physical inflows into American ports. Over the past 18 months, this mechanism has allowed the country to build a substantial domestic stockpile of a critical metal essential to both green energy transition and advanced technology sectors. However, this deliberate accumulation has come at the direct expense of liquidity in non-U.S. markets. Physical metal is being systematically diverted away from international hubs, driving rapid inventory drawdowns across both London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses. As regional pricing premiums widen and trade flows skew disproportionately toward the United States, prolonged tariff uncertainty risks transforming temporary arbitrage plays into a permanent, structural fracture in the global copper market.

At around 15:30 on July 26, a safety incident occurred during production and construction at the underground Area 3 of Yinman Mining, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xingye Silver&Tin, resulting in one fatality and no other injuries. On July 28, Xingye Silver&Tin announced for the first time that the underground mining areas of Yinman Mining had been suspended, while the beneficiation plant remained in normal operation. At that time, Yinman Mining had approximately 350,000 mt of surface ore, which was expected to support the beneficiation plant's production for about two and a half months. On July 30, Yinman Mining further received an "On-site Disposition Decision" (Xi) Yingji Xianjue [2026] No. 260 issued by the Xiwu Banner Emergency Management Bureau, requiring the simultaneous suspension of the beneficiation and tailings systems. As of the announcement disclosure, Yinman Mining's mining system, beneficiation and tailings systems had all been suspended. The previous plan to sustain beneficiation production using ore inventory could no longer be implemented, directly impacting mineral product production. Yinman Mining has an existing mining and beneficiation capacity of 1.65 million mt per year and is the core tin-silver mine under Xingye Silver&Tin. Xingye Silver&Tin did not separately disclose Yinman Mining's actual copper metal production in 2025. According to the original project design, Yinman Mining's copper concentrates contain approximately 1,100 mt of copper metal per year; Xingye Silver&Tin's consolidated mine-produced copper output in 2025 was 2,380.89 mt. As Yinman Mining's copper production scale is relatively small, this suspension will have limited impact on China's overall supply of copper concentrates, with the impact expected to be mainly concentrated on products such as tin and silver. Going forward, attention needs to be paid to the progress of accident investigation, tailings system rectification, and production resumption acceptance.

SMM, July 30: Iron ore futures continued to drift lower during the day session on July 30, closing down again and fully reflecting the dual bearish pressure from macro headwinds and fundamentals. Earlier macro tailwind expectations gradually fizzled out, and combined with a sharp increase in supply and persistently weak downstream demand, iron ore futures faced a double blow. By the close of the day session on July 30, iron ore extended its losing streak to a fifth consecutive trading day, falling 3.31% to 715 yuan/mt, with an intraday low of 712.5 yuan/mt—a new low since early July 2025. Fundamentals Supply: Weather disruptions outside China fade, port arrivals surge, and supply pressure climbs significantly Chart: SMM 35-port Inventory (10kt) Data Source: SMM In terms of supply: According to SMM shipping data, total global iron ore shipments tracked by SMM reached 27.82 million mt last week, down 10% WoW; cumulative shipments were up 1% YoY. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both edged down slightly, while shipments from non-mainstream countries fell WoW, though shipments from India and Peru rebounded notably. Meanwhile, total China iron ore port arrivals tracked by SMM surged to 30.32 million mt last week, up 54% WoW, with cumulative arrivals up 5% YoY. As weather disruptions outside China gradually recede, port arrivals rebounded markedly, and the supply growth weighed on ore prices. Demand: Off-season compounded by environmental protection-driven production restrictions, hot metal output continues to pull back, and raw material demand support weakens In terms of demand: Environmental protection-driven production restrictions and the traditional off-season effect pushed China’s hot metal output down to a low for the year, and iron ore continued to face pressure from downstream demand. According to an SMM survey, on July 29 the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills stood at 88.93%, down 0.47 percentage point WoW. Average daily hot metal output at the sampled mills was 2.4087 million mt, down 16,000 mt WoW. The decline in hot metal output this week was mainly due to disruptions from environmental inspections, especially in the Tangshan area of Hebei, where mills arranged concentrated short-term maintenance, leading to a temporary output reduction. Inventory: Port inventories saw a buildup, with a clear pattern of strong supply and weak demand Chart: SMM Ten-Port Inventory Data (10kt) Data Source: SMM In terms of inventory: As of July 30, according to SMM monitoring data, total inventories at the ten ports tracked by SMM stood at 106.92 million mt, up 1.29 million mt WoW, with coarse fines, concentrate, lump ore, and pellets all showing a slight inventory buildup. The inventory buildup at ports further confirmed the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand, continuing to suppress iron ore market prices. Market outlook for iron ore, in the short term, supply-side growth pressure continues to be released, and the pattern of weak demand during the traditional off-season for downstream end-users is unlikely to reverse quickly. Before significant improvement in construction activity and finished steel consumption, iron ore prices will overall remain in the doldrums. Subsequently, focus will be on tracking the strength and rollout pace of end-use demand recovery during the traditional September-October peak season. From a medium and long-term perspective, the iron ore market in H2 2026 will continue to see an oversupply pattern, with fundamentals weakening QoQ and ore prices still having the possibility of hitting bottom further. However, the escalating US-Iran conflict has pushed up energy costs, driving up ocean shipping costs, which will provide bottom support for iron ore prices. Overall, barring any significant macro or fundamental positive news, the oversupplied fundamentals will prevent iron ore from staging a trend reversal rebound, while the downside room is limited, keeping prices in a pattern of consolidating on a subdued note with insufficient upward momentum and cost-based downside support. Institutional Views A research report from Everbright Futures showed: Australian miner MinRes released its Q2 2026 operational report. The report showed that iron ore production at the Onslow Iron project in Q2 reached 8.754 million mt, up 12% QoQ and 42% YoY; shipments reached 9.596 million mt, up 33% QoQ and 66% YoY, setting a quarterly shipment record. Iron ore shipments from the Pilbara Hub project in Q2 were 2.701 million mt, up 31% QoQ and 7% YoY. For FY2026, MinRes's attributable iron ore shipments reached 29.543 million mt, setting an annual record. Combined with Rio Tinto and Vale's quarterly reports having previously confirmed high production and sales from major mines, the medium-term supply ample pattern was further cemented. On the demand side, hot metal output continued its decline, and low steel mill profits dampened raw material purchase willingness. Ore prices are expected to continue to consolidate on a subdued note in the short term. SDIC Futures stated: Supply side, global shipments pulled back MoM and were weaker than the same period last year. BHP and workers have yet to reach an agreement on pay raises, but currently there are no further strike plans; future attention remains on negotiation progress. China's port arrivals fell below the year-to-date average but were still stronger than the same period last year; port inventories stabilized and rebounded after weather disruptions ended. Demand side, apparent steel demand in the off-season was weak; the proportion of profitable steel mills continued to decline from low levels, leading to more production cuts; hot metal output continued to fall, and iron ore demand faced marginal downside pressure. Recurrent external geopolitical conflicts keep oil prices consolidating at relatively high levels, providing some cost support below the futures market. SDIC Futures expects iron ore futures to consolidate. Yide Futures believes that hot metal output is gradually declining, the seasonal supply decline is not significant, supply-demand marginal improvement is insufficient, and inventory pressure remains high. Although 730-710 offers some support, end-use demand has not yet emerged from the off-season, and rebound momentum is insufficient. Recommended reading:

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Two Major Factors Boosted Market Confidence, Short-Term Aluminum Price Maintained Consolidation on a Strong Note]

According to Core Lithium's Q2 2026 quarterly report, the Finniss project has been fully restarted. The Grants open‑pit mine has commenced mining operations, with designed ore of 784,000 tonnes, expected to produce approximately 134,000 tonnes of SC5 lithium concentrate. Processing is planned for Q3 2026, with first shipment targeted for Q4. The decline development at the BP33 underground mine has also been initiated, with first ore expected by mid‑2027 and steady‑state production by 2028. The logistics chain has resumed operations as well. On the sales front, during the quarter the company shipped 20,000 tonnes of lithium fines and 5,000 tonnes of concentrate from inventory, receiving A$16.2 million in proceeds. It also signed two new fines sales agreements with Glencore for a combined 45,000 tonnes at an average price of approximately US$280/t CIF. At quarter‑end, about 30,000 tonnes of fines inventory remained. In terms of production, Grants will contribute the first concentrate, while BP33 is the future mainstay, as the project transitions from open‑pit to underground mining. Regarding cash flow, as of 30 June the cash balance stood at A$181.8 million, with net operating inflow of A$5.71 million, and post‑financing funds are ample to support ongoing construction works.

[Production Under Pressure, Supply Marginal Reduction, Silicon Prices Remain Under Pressure] Currently, the silicon metal industry chain is showing a clear game-playing pattern, with structural divergence between upstream and midstream. On the supply side, silicon enterprises are incurring cash flow losses, and a few have undergone maintenance and production halts. As the actual output reduction has been limited so far, it has not had a directional impact on market sentiment. Silicon enterprises are holding prices firm and unwilling to lower quotations to boost orders, leading to an accumulation trend in industry in-factory inventory. In the midstream, social inventory has been destocking for several consecutive weeks. Trading firms engaging in both spot and futures markets are preferring transactions at low futures levels, and inventories in the trade circulation sector continue to destock. The tightening of circulating supply has driven the spot-futures price spread to strengthen, with spot prices showing greater resistance to declines than futures.

[SMM Aluminum Flash] On July 30, LME aluminum inventory recorded 266,300 mt, down 1,500 mt from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.56%. Over the past week, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 8,875.00 mt, a decrease of 3.23%. Over the past month, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 37,400 mt, a decrease of 12.31%.

Spot lithium carbonate prices moved sideways in a narrow range this week, with the price center edging up slightly WoW. The futures market consolidated on a subdued note. The price range of the most-traded 2609 contract drifted lower from 143,300-148,200 yuan/mt early in the week to 140,600-149,400 yuan/mt. Mid-week, it hit a high of 149,400 yuan/mt before pulling back, and dipped to a low of 140,600 yuan/mt. Open interest continued to decline, with both longs and shorts mainly reducing positions. Market transactions showed a pattern of "downstream purchasing as needed and upstream holding prices firm while holding back from selling," and actual transactions were relatively active. Upstream lithium chemical plants had strong sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling for spot orders, with willingness to sell remaining sluggish. Some enterprises anchored their willingness to sell spot orders at above 160,000 yuan/mt. Current supply was mainly based on long-term contract guarantees and "long-term contract + growth" delivery models. Downstream material plants continued their strategy of purchasing as needed and buying the dip, with relatively strong willingness to buy the dip below 145,000 yuan/mt for just-in-time needs, but limited acceptance of higher prices. There was little large-scale stockpiling, and procurement was generally stable as it was month-end. Traders were affected by both upstream supply contraction and limited spot order circulation, as well as downstream just-in-time procurement, and remained in a destocking state. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively active. Supply side, production continued to decline significantly, and upstream inventory remained low. This week, China's lithium carbonate production continued to decline sharply, significantly affected by maintenance and production halts at lithium chemical plants using spodumene and lepidolite. Inventory changes: Upstream lithium chemical plants still maintained their strategy of holding back from selling spot orders, with persistently sluggish willingness to sell; combined with multiple plants entering maintenance, inventory remained low. Downstream material plants continued their pace of purchasing as needed; as it was month-end, procurement was generally stable, and inventory was basically stable. Traders, affected by both upstream supply contraction and downstream just-in-time procurement, continued destocking. The funding side showed a pattern of both longs and shorts reducing positions. Futures open interest continued to decline this week, indicating that both longs and shorts were closing positions; market wait-and-see sentiment intensified, and prices lacked a clear directional driver. Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a sideways consolidation pattern. Supply side, ongoing maintenance and production halts at some lithium chemical plants and tightening circulation of spodumene ore provided support for prices, with supply contraction being the main bullish factor currently. Demand side, downstream dip-buying and purchasing as needed continued, but large-scale concentrated stockpiling had not yet appeared, lacking sustained upward momentum. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the progress of maintenance recovery at lithium chemical plants, changes in downstream restocking pace, and production schedule expectations for August.

[Zinc Ingot Export Window Opening? A Nearly 20-Year Rare Opportunity Reemerges!] As of July 28, LME zinc inventory (including non-registered warrants) had pulled back to 101,800 mt, down about 20,000 mt from mid-June. Amid continued destocking outside China, the LME zinc market structure shifted from contango to backwardation, and the backwardation structure kept widening. On July 28, the LME zinc Cash-3M spread strengthened to $61.09/mt. In stark contrast, zinc consumption in China remained in the traditional off-season, with SMM-reported social inventory of zinc ingots across seven domestic markets holding steady at a high level of around 260,000 mt. The supply-demand patterns in China and overseas clearly diverged, and the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio weakened all the way. Against this backdrop, the long-dormant export window for Chinese zinc ingots reappeared, and discussions in the market about reverse arbitrage involving "buying SHFE zinc, selling LME zinc" noticeably heated up...

【SMM Flash】It is learned that automobile consumption enters the off-season in July. Tire manufacturers are saddled with high inventory levels, leading to weakened demand for rubber-grade zinc oxide, which has dragged down the operating rates of some zinc oxide producers.