This week, industry chain prices diverged. Lithium ore edged down alongside lithium carbonate, but mines continued to hold prices firm, making profit distribution across the industry chain a market focus. Supported by maintenance and tight spot order supply, lithium carbonate prices consolidated on a subdued note, while lithium hydroxide prices initially fell before rebounding. The cobalt industry chain remained generally under pressure—with weakening overseas quotations and sluggish off-season demand, refined cobalt, intermediate products, and cobalt salt prices continued to weaken, and the price spread between buyers and sellers widened. Nickel sulphate edged down, with the market still primarily focused on destocking; ternary cathode precursor prices declined due to weaker nickel and cobalt salt prices, while ternary cathode material prices remained basically stable. LFP prices proved resilient, supported by rising processing fees, with August production schedules continuing to grow and high-quality capacity remaining tight. Artificial graphite prices rose, the supply-demand balance for separators stayed in tight balance, and electrolyte prices were pushed up by raw material cost transmission. Supply of key materials for sodium-ion batteries remained tight, while recycling-side transactions were subdued. On the terminal side, EV and ESS demand maintained resilience, though the consumer market recovery remained limited. Looking ahead, the focus will be on peak season stockpiling and demand realization.

The industry chain continued to be in the doldrums this week. Overseas spot cargo and futures quotations declined, and domestic salt and intermediate product prices remained weak, intensifying bearish market sentiment. Mainstream smelters lowered their refined cobalt quotations to 340,000 yuan/mt, while downstream procurement during the off-season remained focused on small-volume rigid demand. Trading in the intermediate product market was sluggish, with miners’ indicative prices at approximately $21–21.5/lb, while downstream psychological price levels had dropped to around $18–19/lb, further widening the price spread. Cobalt sulphate, cobalt chloride, and Co3O4 all faced downward price pressure due to weak demand, inventory pressure, and cost-related bargaining, while the actual transaction price center for cobalt powder also edged lower. Ternary cathode precursor prices declined in line with weaker nickel and cobalt salt prices, though orders from top-tier players for overseas and power battery applications performed relatively well. Ternary cathode material prices were basically stable, with orders in August showing steady growth. Demand recovery in the LCO market remained slow, with production and sales still at low levels. The market in the short term is expected to continue grappling with off-season demand, Q3 stockpiling, and raw material price changes.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel is $15,273/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt is $47,840/mt Co. The MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) is 82.5-83.5, and the MHP cobalt payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) is 90. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $15,700/mt Ni.

On August 7, SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price remained stable.

【SMM Tungsten Analysis】 SMM August 6: On August 5, major Chinese tungsten enterprises released their long-term contract prices for the first half of August, among which the price for 55% wolframite concentrates was set at 412,000 yuan/mt, up 1,000 yuan/standard tonne from the second half of July, and the APT long-term contract price was simultaneously raised by 1,000 yuan/mt to 606,000 yuan/mt.

Spot‑price declines for cobalt metal widened this week, with overall market sentiment weakening. On the supply side, mainstream smelters cut their ex‑factory offers to RMB 340,000 per tonne, while most small‑and‑medium‑sized smelters have largely suspended quoting due to loss‑making pressures. On the demand side, downstream players remain in the summer‑shutdown cycle with muted purchasing appetite, only conducting small‑volume restocking for rigid‑demand needs. This week’s price drop was mainly sentiment‑driven. Overseas spot and futures quotation platforms lowered their offers simultaneously. Previously resilient overseas prices softened, weighing notably on domestic market sentiment. Coupled with persistent price weakness of Chinese cobalt salts and cobalt intermediate products, bearish market sentiment has gradually intensified. Some previously on‑hold stockholders started offloading stocks, adding further downward price pressure. Overall, the market is in cobalt’s traditional consumption off‑season with limited demand‑side support. Combined with softer overseas prices and bearish sentiment, prices may stay weak in the near term.

Refined Cobalt: The decline in spot prices for refined cobalt widened this week, with overall market sentiment weakening. On the supply side, mainstream smelters lowered their ex-factory quotations to 340,000 yuan/mt, while other small and medium-sized smelters largely suspended external quotations due to ongoing loss pressure. On the demand side, downstream enterprises remained in their summer break cycle, with limited purchase willingness and only maintaining small restocking for rigid demand. The price fall this week was mainly sentiment-driven, as overseas spot and futures quotation platforms also reduced their prices, causing previously relatively firm prices outside China to show signs of softening and significantly weighing on Chinese market sentiment. Coupled with the continued weakness in China's cobalt salt and intermediate product prices, bearish sentiment gradually intensified, and some previously wait-and-see suppliers began selling off, further intensifying the downward price pressure. Overall, the current period is the traditional consumption off-season for cobalt, with limited demand-side support, and together with weakening overseas prices and a shift to bearish market sentiment, prices are likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Cobalt Intermediate Products: The cobalt intermediate products market remained sluggish this week, with actual transactions still limited. Recently, some miners initiated intermediate product tenders multiple times, but due to the large divergence in price expectations between upstream and downstream, no actual deals were reached in the tenders. The latest tender had an indicative price of about $21-21.5/lb. Affected by the continued weakness in cobalt salt and refined cobalt prices, the psychological price levels of downstream smelters and traders for raw materials further pulled back to around $18-19/lb, with some enterprises only able to accept $17/lb. The gap with miners' quotations continued to widen, making actual transactions difficult to materialize. In the short term, although miners have the intention to hold prices firm, downstream demand support is insufficient, and the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers persists. A price recovery still needs to wait for the recovery of actual downstream demand. Cobalt Sulphate: The cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week, with the stalemate between upstream and downstream unchanged. On the supply side, primary smelters using intermediate products and MHP as raw materials, supported by costs, continued to hold their quotations firm above 80,000 yuan/mt; mainstream recyclers' quotations remained at about 95% of SMM's low-range price, while a few enterprises with higher willingness to sell lowered their quotations to 70,000-73,000 yuan/mt, with even a small number of extremely low prices reported below 70,000 yuan/mt. The demand side remained weak, with downstream procurement target prices continuing to fall, and some extreme inquiries pressing below 70,000 yuan/mt. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices still face some downward pressure, and a stabilization and recovery in the market will need to wait for the release of concentrated downstream restocking demand. Cobalt Powder: The cobalt powder market continued its weak trend this week, with actual transactions remaining sluggish. On the supply side, mainstream producers maintained their quotations in the range of 440,000-460,000 yuan/mt, while some actual transaction prices had dropped to 430,000-440,000 yuan/mt. Low-priced offers in the trading segment increased, further lowering the market's psychological price level. On the raw material side, cobalt carbonate prices were under pressure, with some quotations already falling below the 200,000 yuan/mt mark, pushing market trading to near stagnation and lacking effective transaction guidance. Downstream cemented carbide enterprises were still constrained by end-user orders, with no improvement in raw material consumption speed, and their procurement pace remained slow. Apart from long-term contract orders, spot order transactions were relatively limited. In terms of market sentiment, participants mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, generally believing that it would be difficult to see significant improvement in the short term. SMM New Energy Research Team Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875 Xiao Wenhao 021-51666872 Zhang Haohan 021-51666752 Wang Zihan 021-51666914 Wang Jie 021-51595902 Xu Yang 021-51666760 Yang Lianting 021-51595835 Wang Zhaoyu 021-51666827

Against the backdrop of the US accelerating the build-out of its domestic battery supply chain while facing persistent reliance on foreign sources for critical minerals, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the US Department of Commerce issued an interim final rule on August 5, 2026, imposing export controls on certain recycled battery materials. The most impactful measure is the temporary export restriction on black mass, an intermediate material from lithium battery recycling. Rather than a complete cutoff of lithium battery-related material exports, this move precisely targets recycled stage products rich in lithium, cobalt, and nickel, aiming to intercept at the source the rapidly growing domestic pool of retired battery resources.

On August 6, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price remained stable.

On August 5, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate slightly decreased.