I. Key Points In H1 2026, nickel prices exhibited wide fluctuations characterized by a “rebound from lows—consolidation at highs—pullback and consolidation” pattern. The most-traded LME nickel contract surged from $14,000/mt at the beginning of the year to near $20,000 in May, before pulling back to $16,000-17,000 in July; the most-traded SHFE nickel contract climbed from 110,000 yuan/mt to above 150,000 yuan/mt, and then retreated to 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt. The driving logic of this market move was the intertwined resonance of three main themes: a shift in Indonesia’s resource policies, repeated fluctuations in global macro liquidity expectations, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on raw material costs. The center of nickel prices did rise compared to 2025, but the “shadow of surplus” has not dissipated. In H2 2026, the key variables for tracking nickel prices are as follows: First, the approval results of Indonesia’s RKAB quota revision in July. A significant increase in the quota would substantially narrow the supply deficit and weigh on nickel prices. Second, the Fed’s policy path — whether the hawkish signal from the June dot plot will persist — which affects the US dollar index and the valuation center of commodities. Third, sulphur supply and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which determines the cost support strength along the MHP–nickel sulphate–refined nickel chain. Fourth, demand from stainless steel and NEV ternary power batteries. Fifth, the pace of global visible inventory destocking. Sustained destocking would serve as a real support signal, while high inventories would limit price elasticity. Under a neutral scenario, LME nickel prices are expected to trade in the range of $15,500-17,500/mt in H2. II. Macro Environment – Reversal of Liquidity Expectations, Substantial Impact of Geopolitical Costs, and the ‘Dual Strength’ Pattern of the RMB 1. Fed Policy Path: ‘From Dovish to Hawkish’ At the beginning of the year, the market widely expected 50-100 bp of rate cuts in H1 2026, and the US dollar index fell below 97 at one point, creating a relatively loose liquidity environment. However, mid-year, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance surprised the market. The June meeting kept rates unchanged and the dot plot signaled a bias toward rate hikes, leading to a systematic revision of the previously priced “dovish delivery” logic. This directly weighed on the valuation of industrial metals such as nickel, serving as a key macro trigger for the nickel price decline in June. 2. Geopolitical Conflicts Expanded from ‘Safe-Haven Trades’ to ‘Real Cost Shocks’ The Middle East situation (tensions among the US, Israel and Iran, and disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz) not only pushed up energy and safe-haven premiums, but also, through the critical link of sulphur supply, directly raised the production cost of Indonesia’s MHP (each mt of MHP in metal content consumes about 10 mt of sulphur), forming the core driver of the pulse-like surge in nickel prices in May. After a ceasefire agreement was reached between the US and Iran in mid-June, energy and safe-haven premiums receded, leading to a peak and subsequent pullback in commodities, confirming the dual impact of geopolitical variables on nickel prices. 3. China’s Macroeconomy and RMB ‘Dual Strength’ Provide a Unique Offset Against a generally stronger US dollar, the onshore RMB bucked the trend, appreciating from 6.98 to 6.79 (a gain of about 2.9%). The relative strength of the RMB, with the exchange rate declining (USD/CNY fell), caused import costs to drop sharply, opening the import window and generating arbitrage profits. However, as large volumes of imported nickel flowed into the domestic market, the spot supply of nickel plates in China increased, accelerating the pace of inventory buildup and weighing on domestic prices. At the same time, LME nickel inventories decreased, leading to a repair of the SHFE/LME nickel price ratio, and the import window closed again in May. III. Indonesia's Industrial Policy—Systemic Transformation from "Expanding Capacity" to "Controlling the Chain to Raise Prices" In H1 2026, Indonesia's nickel industry policy completed a strategic shift, systematically deploying a policy package centered on "controlling supply, stabilizing prices, and enhancing resource added value," which became the core fundamental variable driving wide fluctuations in nickel prices. 1. Significant tightening of total RKAB quotas and tilted allocation structure At the beginning of the year, Indonesia's ESDM announced that the 2026 nickel ore quota would be drastically cut from 379 million wmt in 2025 to 270 million wmt. The world's largest single nickel mine project, WBN, saw its 2026 quota suffer a "cliff-like" reduction; its quota was exhausted in May, leading to full-scale production cuts and shutdowns, stoking persistent concerns over tight supply in H1. The Indonesian authorities have clarified that July 1 to 31, 2026 will be the mid-year application period for supplementary RKAB quotas, prioritizing compliant miners with integrated domestic downstream smelting capacity (such as supporting NPI or HPAL projects). The mid-year policy game over RKAB quotas is intensifying. 2. HPM pricing formula reform shifts from single nickel pricing to multi-element comprehensive pricing The new formula effective April 15 incorporates associated elements such as iron, cobalt, and chromium into the value component for the first time. Indonesia sought to recapture the undervalued value of associated resources into the pricing system, raising benchmark prices for nickel ore and intermediate products across the cost side. However, this reform met strong opposition from the domestic smelting industry, which argued that it would further squeeze smelting profits amid already surging sulfur and energy costs. 3. Indonesian government officially releases new export control regulations for ferronickel (FeNi) and NPI In July, Indonesia further strengthened export supervision of high-value-added nickel products under Finance Minister Regulation (KMK) No.32/MK/BC/2026 (implementing Trade Minister Regulation No.17/2026). The new regulation targets products under HS Code Ex.7202.60.00, including ferronickel (FeNi) ingots and lumps with nickel content ≥8%, sponge ferronickel (Sponge FeNi) and granular ferronickel (Nugget FeNi) with nickel content ≥4%, as well as low-grade ferronickel products with 2% ≤ Ni <4% and iron content ≥75% (covering some NPI products). Export requires a surveyor's report (LS) and relevant export licenses; from January 1, 2027, export will generally only be allowed through state-owned export enterprises (BUMN Ekspor), with exemptions under specific circumstances. Overall, Indonesia is currently tightening quotas, raising taxes and fees, and imposing export controls to elevate resource value, seeking to keep nickel prices within its officially recognized desired range ($19,000-20,000/mt) over the long term. On the other hand, it must balance stability of the industry chain and foreign investor confidence in actual implementation, thus exhibiting a game-like characteristic of "tight first then loose, adjusting while implementing."The extreme policy uncertainty was one of the core reasons behind the wide fluctuations in nickel prices in H1. IV. Changes in Nickel Intermediate Product Raw Materials: Restructuring of the Cost Transmission Chain 1. MHP and High-Grade Nickel Matte: A Dynamic Game Dominated by "Auxiliary Material Costs" There are three main production routes for nickel sulphate raw materials: MHP (hydrometallurgy): the dominant route with the largest long-term growth, but highly dependent on sulphur; high-grade nickel matte (pyrometallurgy RKEF conversion / oxygen-enriched side-blowing route): an alternative route with low dependence on sulphur and relatively stable cost elasticity; nickel briquette dissolution: the least economical, feasible only within specific price spread windows. The sharp fluctuations in sulphur prices in H1 reshaped the cost structure of the entire nickel industry chain. Producing one mt in metal content of MHP requires approximately 10 mt of sulphur, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted Indonesia’s sulphur import channels, forcing Huayou Cobalt’s Huafei Nickel-Cobalt to cut production on some lines starting in May. Sulphur prices surged, with the SMM sulphur CIF Indonesia price peaking at $1,300/mt, and the cost shock was transmitted step by step along the “sulphur—MHP—nickel sulphate—electrodeposited nickel” chain, becoming one of the core drivers behind the rapid nickel price rise in May. The high-grade nickel matte route, relying on pyrometallurgy, is far less dependent on sulphur than MHP. Consequently, during the sulphur price spike, high-grade nickel matte’s cost advantage over MHP widened significantly, creating direct substitution pressure on MHP’s market share. In terms of production trends, Indonesia’s MHP production edged up about 0.02% YoY to 206,000 mt in metal content in January-June 2026. Over the same period, high-grade nickel matte posted the most impressive growth, with production up about 123% YoY to 185,000 mt in metal content, strengthening its position in the competition for nickel sulphate raw materials. In the medium and long term, however, once sulphur supply normalizes and MHP costs pull back, the MHP route, with its scale effects and relatively mature cost curve, will reclaim its dominant share of the nickel sulphate raw material market; after all, MHP projects’ capacity base is far larger than that of high-grade nickel matte, and its cobalt by-product also provides a substantial marginal revenue contribution (about $4,500/mt Ni). 2. Production Capacity Switching Game Between High-Grade Nickel Matte and NPI High-grade nickel matte and NPI share the same RKEF production lines and laterite nickel ore resources, differing only in whether a sulphidation conversion stage is added at the end. The conversion decision is essentially a profit-maximization problem: when the marginal revenue of high-grade nickel matte relative to NPI covers the additional equipment and process losses of sulphidation conversion, lines switch to high-grade nickel matte; otherwise, they tend toward NPI. The conversion profit chart shows that profit for NPI-to-high-grade-nickel-matte conversion appeared only in April-May. After MHP production cuts in May, the monthly nickel sulphate raw material deficit was about 8,000 mt Ni, theoretically requiring increased high-grade nickel matte production to fill. However, due to RKAB quota constraints and the continued decline in NPI feed grade, integrated enterprises prioritized supplying stainless steel, making it difficult for high-grade nickel matte to offset the MHP raw material shortfall. This was a key reason why nickel sulphate prices remained firm even after refined nickel prices fell sharply in May. 5. Refined Nickel Supply-Demand Pattern: High Inventory vs. Structural Tightness Expectations 1. Supply Side: Electrodeposited Nickel Capacity Continues to Expand, Production Hits Repeated Records The most certain trend on the supply side is the sustained release of electrodeposited nickel capacity and production in China and Indonesia. According to SMM data, from January to June 2026, China’s refined nickel production was 215,000 mt, a YoY growth rate of 9%; Indonesia’s refined nickel production was 56,000 mt, a YoY growth rate of 97%. Meanwhile, at the beginning of 2026, China’s refined nickel trade pattern underwent a temporary reversal. Previously, benefiting from the explosion in electrodeposited nickel capacity, China had once been expanding its net exports of refined nickel. However, entering Q1 2026, as the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets opened up and the import arbitrage window was activated, China turned back into a net importer of refined nickel, with net imports exceeding 80,000 mt in January-April. 2. Demand Side: New Energy Recovery, Stainless Steel Support, and Steady Alloy & Special Steel In H1 2026, stainless steel, the largest downstream application of nickel, maintained mild growth. Total stainless steel production in China and Indonesia from January to June was approximately 23 million mt, up about 2% YoY. Steel mills maintained relatively high operating rates throughout H1, with stable apparent consumption. In the new energy (ternary battery) sector, nickel demand saw a strong recovery. From January to June, China’s ternary cathode precursor production was 528,000 mt, up 32% YoY; ternary cathode material production was 493,000 mt, up 40% YoY. Alloy & special steel and electroplating, although accounting for a relatively low share of total primary nickel consumption, played a critical role in refined nickel demand in H1 due to their irreplaceability. From January to June, China’s total refined nickel demand was approximately 140,000 mt, up 9% YoY. Military and aerospace demand strengthened, while high-end manufacturing demand remained steady with moderate growth. 3. Inventory Side: Global Visible Inventory Remains at Historical Highs Despite wild swings in nickel prices in H1, global visible nickel inventory remained at relatively high historical levels. LME nickel inventory fluctuated in the range of 270,000-280,000 mt for an extended period. China’s social inventory and exchange warrants experienced significant buildup. As of July, SMM refined nickel social inventory reached 130,000 mt, with total global inventory hitting a high of 497,000 mt. High visible inventory posed a significant constraint on nickel price rises. In June, after digesting supply disruption narratives, the market refocused on the fundamental reality of “high inventory and lackluster demand,” and nickel prices pulled back from a temporary high to around $16,100/mt. 6. H2 2026 Risk Alerts and Nickel Price Forecasts Based on the logic of H1, nickel price trends in H2 are expected to maintain a fundamental pattern dominated by policy gaming, with macro factors amplifying volatility. The following variables merit close monitoring: 1. The final outcome of the RKAB quota revision approval in Indonesia in July; 2. whether the US Fed's policy path in H2 will continue its hawkish stance; 3. whether sulfur supply can substantially return to normal, and whether there is a risk of repeated disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz situation; 4. whether end-use demand from stainless steel and new energy sectors can show a substantial improvement; 5. the destocking pace of global visible inventory. Based on the above price influencing factors, a scenario analysis for nickel prices is conducted: Bearish scenario (quotas being more accommodative than expected): quota increase ≥30% + sulfur pullback + high inventory pressure → LME nickel $14,000—$16,000/mt. Neutral scenario (highest probability): quota slightly increased but still tight + sulfur consolidates at highs → LME nickel $15,500—$17,500/mt. Bullish scenario (tight quotas + secondary cost surge): quotas continue to tighten + export controls + repeated geopolitical tensions push up sulfur → LME nickel $17,000—$19,000/mt.

Imported Bauxite Prices As of May 25, 2026, ex-China bauxite prices generally remained stable with a slight upward trend. Affected by rising energy and ocean freight costs, some imported ore prices edged up. However, raw material inventory at China's alumina refineries stayed high, and downstream acceptance of high-priced resources was limited, with market transactions still dominated by just-in-time procurement. Among them, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index (converted to 45/3 grade) was quoted at $67.61/mt, up $0.09/mt MoM, with the monthly price range at $67.52-67.85/mt. By variety, Guinea bauxite FOB prices (converted to 45/3 grade) were quoted at $38/mt, flat MoM, with prices remaining stable since May. Guinea bauxite CIF prices (converted to 45/3 grade) were quoted at $68/mt, up $0.05/mt MoM, with the monthly price range at $67-68/mt. Australia bauxite CIF prices (49-50/6-7 grade) were quoted at $62/mt, and Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF prices (51-52/8-10 grade) were quoted at $56.5/mt, both flat MoM. Turkey bauxite CFR prices (54/6 grade) were quoted at $78.5/mt, up $2.5/mt MoM, with prices rising from $76/mt to $78.5/mt within the month. Malaysia bauxite CIF prices (37-41/5-6 grade) were quoted at $52/mt, Malaysia washed bauxite CIF prices (37-41/5-6 grade) were quoted at $62.5/mt, and Ghana bauxite CIF prices (47-51/5-6 grade) were quoted at $78/mt, all remaining stable within the month. Bauxite Imports and Exports Customs data showed that in April 2026, China imported 19.743 million mt of bauxite, down 9.4% MoM and down 4.6% YoY. From January to April 2026, China's cumulative bauxite imports totalled 77.728 million mt, up 14.7% YoY. By country, in April 2026, China imported 16.423 million mt of bauxite from Guinea, down 9.4% MoM and down 1.9% YoY. From January to April 2026, China's cumulative bauxite imports from Guinea totalled 62.964 million mt, up 18.5% YoY. Guinea remained the primary source country for China's bauxite imports. Shipment side, as of May 22, daily average bauxite shipments from Guinea's main ports fell to 559,000 mt/day, down approximately 21.8% MoM. Considering the shipping schedule transmission cycle, China's bauxite port arrivals are expected to gradually pull back from late June, with a notable decline expected in July. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors In May 2026, ex-China bauxite prices were mainly affected by three factors: Guinea's export policy expectations, rising energy and ocean freight costs, and high inventory at China's alumina refineries suppressing purchase willingness. First, Guinea's bauxite export quota policy remained a market focus. Earlier, there were market rumours that the Guinean government might implement the bauxite export quota policy around the Labour Day holiday, driving up Guinea bauxite prices by restricting shipments. However, as the relevant policy had yet to be officially implemented, its marginal impact on market sentiment weakened, and market participants' enthusiasm for pricing and stockpiling based on this factor also declined. Second, rising energy and ocean freight costs provided some support for ex-China ore prices. Affected by geopolitical disruptions, international oil prices fluctuated at highs, and mine overland transport, ocean freight, and production operating costs all rose. According to an SMM survey, ocean freight rates from Guinea to China rose from approximately $34/wmt in April to $36-37.5/wmt in May, significantly pushing up shipping costs for mines and traders. Against the backdrop of increasing cost pressure, some mines and traders showed reduced enthusiasm for shipments, and the market also saw a slowdown in shipping pace. Third, raw material inventory at China's alumina refineries remained at a relatively high level, limiting acceptance of high-priced imported ore. Currently, bauxite inventory at China's alumina refineries stood at over 3 months, with downstream buyers mainly making just-in-time procurement and showing weak willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. Although some long-term contract prices from Guinea to China were around $70/mt in May, an SMM survey found that some downstream alumina refineries' intended prices for spot bauxite purchases were still concentrated around $65-67/mt, with significant price divergence between buyers and sellers. Price Outlook Supply side, energy and ocean freight costs stayed high, providing some support for ex-China bauxite prices. Meanwhile, shipments from Guinea's main ports pulled back on a phased basis, which may gradually transmit to China's port arrival side. Demand side, bauxite inventory at China's alumina refineries remained relatively sufficient, with limited possibility of significantly raising procurement target prices in the short term, and notable bargaining between high- and low-priced resources persisted in the market. SMM expects that ex-China bauxite prices will hover at highs in the near term. Continued attention should be paid to changes in Guinea's shipments, ocean freight rate trends, the pace of inventory drawdown at China's alumina refineries, and shifts in procurement sentiment.

SMM May 12: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,977/mt, briefly touched a low of $1,970.5/mt during the Asian session before fluctuating upward; after entering the European session, the rally remained firm, touching a high of $1,990/mt near the close, and finally settled at $1,988.5/mt, up 0.56%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,695 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,710 yuan/mt at the start of the session, then fluctuated downward to probe a low of 16,590 yuan/mt, recovered slightly near the close, and finally settled at 16,655 yuan/mt, down 0.12%, marking a four-day losing streak. This week, the SHFE lead 2605 contract entered the delivery period. Suppliers increasingly shipped to delivery warehouses, and lead ingots were transferred from factory warehouses to social warehouses. The continued accumulation of visible inventory of lead ingots will keep weighing on lead prices. Meanwhile, the concentrated production cuts and shutdowns among secondary lead enterprises became the main driver of supply reduction this month. Combined with the closure of the import window and losses in secondary lead production providing price support, after the delivery-related factors are resolved, lead prices will need to await new influencing factors to emerge. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,977/mt, touched a low of $1,970.5/mt during the Asian session before fluctuating upward; entering the European session, the upward momentum remained strong, reaching a high of $1,990/mt at the close, and finally settled at $1,988.5/mt, up 0.56%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,695 yuan/mt, touched a high of 16,710 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated downward to probe a low of 16,590 yuan/mt, rebounded slightly at the close, and finally settled at 16,655 yuan/mt, down 0.12%, marking a four-day losing streak. On the macro front: Trump sought to suspend the federal gasoline tax, with senators responding by proposing a bill to suspend fuel taxes for 90 days. Peru, the world's third-largest silver producer and ninth-largest gold producer, issued an emergency decree on the energy crisis. Trump will pay a state visit to China from May 13 to 15. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): China's consumer price index rose 1.2% YoY in April 2026. The central bank released the Q1 2026 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report, proposing to continue implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy and noting that the impact of external imported inflation on domestic economic operations requires close attention. : SHFE lead maintained weak consolidation, with suppliers offering limited quotations, some still shipping at small premiums, while primary lead smelters had more cargoes self-picked up from production sites, with mainstream production areas quoting at premiums of -20 to +50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price for ex-factory delivery. For secondary lead, regional supply differences persisted, with smelters showing significant divergence in shipments, and secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of -50 to +25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price for ex-factory delivery. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, with some purchasing on dips, but most primarily relied on long-term contracts, and spot order market transactions showed no obvious improvement. Inventory: On May 11, LME lead inventory increased by 150 mt to 265,925 mt; SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 2,200 mt MoM. Today's lead price forecast: This week, the SHFE lead 2605 contract entered delivery, with suppliers increasing shipments to delivery warehouses, and lead ingots will be transferred from factory warehouses to social warehouses. The accumulation of visible inventory of lead ingots will continue to drag down lead price trends. Meanwhile, concentrated production cuts and suspensions by secondary lead enterprises have become the main force of supply reduction this month, coupled with factors such as the closure of import windows and secondary lead losses providing support. After delivery factors are resolved, lead price movements will need to await the emergence of new influencing factors. Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database models, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week was still the weakening of cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed to levy transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump released conciliatory remarks that he was "willing to end military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed." Market expectations for tightening crude oil supply weakened, the energy sector declined and dragged down the coal sector, and the cost logic weakened. During the week, inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at low levels compared to the same period in previous years, and fundamentals provided limited impetus for futures. Spot market side, market enthusiasm for purchasing was lukewarm, with restocking mainly at low prices. Spot prices remained relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened...

The gold price has undergone a sharp correction since its January high, unsettling many investors. The price decline of more than $1,000 per ounce appears at first glance to represent a break in the previous uptrend. However, according to analysts at WisdomTree, this movement reflects less a fundamental change in the macroeconomic situation than a combination of position adjustments, liquidity needs, and short-term market pressure.

Currently, China's spot market for metallic rhenium exhibits an operational pattern characterized by divergence between upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain, bilateral supply-demand gaming, and price consolidation at highs. The overall market is jointly influenced by multiple factors including macro investment sentiment, industry chain stockpiling pace, ex-China supply chain risks, and domestic supply-demand fundamentals. I. Upstream: Price Range Held Steady, Producers Accelerated Shipment Pace Mainstream upstream producers of metallic rhenium in China maintained stable raw material quotations, with the core price range controlled around 28,000, while only a few producers raised raw material quotations to around 30,000. The overall price tiers were clear with no wild swings. From the market circulation perspective, upstream producers' willingness to sell increased recently, with shipment frequency rising significantly. II. Midstream: Scheduled Production Concentrated, Low Acceptance of High-Priced Ammonium Perrhenate Midstream refineries and rhenium processing enterprises were all in scheduled production status, with pre-holiday order delivery cycles relatively concentrated, and most producers' orders scheduled for delivery completion in March and April. Cost side and procurement mentality, midstream processing enterprises generally showed low acceptance of high-priced ammonium perrhenate, with the procurement side more inclined toward rational price negotiation and resistant to rushing to buy amid continuous price rise. This mentality directly constrained the upside room for ammonium perrhenate prices. III. Downstream: Investment Sentiment Cooled, Industrial Demand Steadily Recovered The downstream market demand side exhibited clear structural divergence, with investment demand and industrial demand trending in opposite directions, becoming the core factor affecting short-term market sentiment. On one hand, previously active investment demand gradually cooled, market investment atmosphere faded, retail investors showed panic-driven exit sentiment, and low-price dumping phenomena emerged successively in the market. Some holders chose to sell below market price to quickly recover funds, which to some extent impacted short-term spot market transaction prices. On the other hand, industrial demand exhibited a healthy trend of steady recovery and sustained growth. As the core rigid demand support for metallic rhenium, the recovery of industrial demand provided solid fundamental support for the market, offsetting some of the bearish impact from investment-driven selling. IV. Outlook Forecast Combining the macro market environment with industry chain supply-demand fundamentals, the current core logic of China's rhenium market is clear, with bullish and bearish factors intertwined in gaming, jointly driving prices to consolidate at highs. Specific influencing factors and outlook are as follows: Short-term, influenced by the international macro environment, investment enthusiasm in the energy sector continued to surge, diverting market funds, while overall investment sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector pulled back notably. This sentiment gradually transmitted to the niche rare metal rhenium market, suppressing investment-side enthusiasm. Additionally, upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain had completed phased restocking before and after Chinese New Year, with market inventory at a relatively ample level. Raw material prices lacked momentum for significant rallies, and short-term upside room for prices was limited. Long-term, gaming in the international critical minerals field intensified, with US-Chile critical minerals consultations continuing to advance, and the trend toward exclusive cooperation in global critical minerals supply chains becoming increasingly evident, directly leading to declining stability of ex-China ammonium perrhenate import channels and continuously climbing external supply risks. Ammonium perrhenate supply showed a tightening trend, providing support for prices.

[Songfa Shares: Subsidiary Signs $200-300 Million Shipbuilding Contract] Songfa Shares announced that its subsidiary Hengli Shipbuilding recently signed and activated a shipbuilding contract for 2 vessels, with the subject being 2 VLCC ultra-large crude oil carriers of 306,000 mt. The contract amount is approximately $200-300 million. The contract performance period runs from signing to delivery, with payments made in US dollars according to the progress of fulfillment, and deliveries are scheduled for H2 2028. The counterparty is a single-ship company under Eastern Pacific Shipping Pte. Ltd., which has good credit and the ability to fulfill the contract. The contract is expected to have a positive impact on the company's performance, but given the long performance period and various influencing factors, the overall risk remains manageable.

In 2025, the global nickel pig iron (NPI) market, influenced by the interplay of supply-demand dynamics, cost fluctuations, and policy environment, exhibited an overall trend of "fluctuations in the first half of the year, followed by initial stability and subsequent weakness in the second half." Significant divergence was observed between the two core production regions, China and Indonesia. Price trends shifted from cost-supported increases at the beginning of the year to off-season demand-driven declines by year-end. Throughout the year, the industry revolved around two fundamental themes: "capacity release and cost constraints on the supply side, and volatility in the stainless steel industry on the demand side."

On November 26, the Shanghai Metals Expo (SME) 2025, organized by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. and SMM Trading Center Co., Ltd., wrapped up successfully in Shanghai, China!