H1 2026 silver saw a sharp spike to 30,900 yuan/kg in January, then plunged 55% to 13,816 yuan/kg by June, driven by squeezed spot liquidity and Fed policy reversal from easing to hawkish. Supply grew steadily; PV silver demand fell 21% YoY. H2 outlook: wait for inflation signals and Fed pivot, silver likely remains under pressure.

In H1 2026, silver experienced an extreme market trend marked by a sharp-peaked inverted-V and stepwise decline, driven by the interplay of two main themes: a spot silver squeeze anomaly and a shift in US Fed monetary policy. After hitting an all-time high of 30,900 yuan/kg in January, silver prices pulled back trend-wise to 13,816 yuan/kg in June, as interest rate cut expectations reversed and hawkish signals strengthened, representing a 55% pullback from the peak. On the supply side, silver ingot production rose 6.9% YoY, and imports surged before returning to normal. On the demand side, PV silver demand fell 21% YoY, with industrial demand taking over from investment as the main driver. In H2, attention will focus on the inflation turning point and marginal changes in the US Fed's policy; silver prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note.

July 7, 2026 Has the worst of the selling pressure on gold and silver finally passed? Although the gold price has not yet managed to break through the first resistance level above $4,200, Ole Hansen, commodities strategist at Saxo Bank, sees clear signs that the months-long correction is coming to an end. In his view, the market environment is currently shifting from pure liquidation toward a sustainable bottoming-out process, during which precious metals are once again being selectively accumulated. U.S. Monetary Policy as the Key Driver for a Breakout The next major price movement depends largely on macroeconomic conditions. Although the market is still pricing in an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year, disappointing labor market data—with only 57,000 new jobs created in June—has already tempered the most aggressive forecasts. In addition, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, recently signaled that inflation risks are subsiding. Speaking to Kitco News, Hansen consequently stated that he does not expect another interest rate hike this year. Falling energy prices and waning inflationary pressure are undermining the basis for a restrictive monetary policy. Once this realization takes hold in the market, a weaker U.S. dollar is likely to give the gold price a massive boost. Technical Correction Phase and Momentum Opportunities for Silver Despite the improvement in fundamentals, gold is still technically in a correction phase and remains 26 percent below its January high. While support below $4,000 has been successfully defended, investors have so far used rallies toward $4,200 to reduce their positions. For a genuine trend reversal, the precious metal must first break above the 200-day moving average at $4,485 as well as the key correction retracement level at $4,574. A similar picture is emerging for silver, which, after the recent selling wave halted in the mid-$50 range, staged a constructive rally above the $60 mark before being capped at $63.27. Silver combines gold’s macroeconomic sensitivity with an extremely tight fundamental environment characterized by multi-year supply deficits and rising industrial demand. Due to its smaller market size, the white metal remains highly attractive to momentum investors, but its heavy reliance on short-term capital flows means it still requires strong nerves in the face of sudden shifts in market sentiment. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/is-the-sell-off-over-gold-and-silver-may-be-on-the-verge-of-their-next-breakout

(Kitco News) - Although gold prices have been unable to break initial resistance above $4,200, one market strategist expects the worst of the selling pressure from the months-long correction may now be over. In his latest precious metals note, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said he believes the price action in the gold market is shifting from liquidation to consolidation and base-building. “The sector has moved from being aggressively bid to selectively accumulated, and the next move will likely depend on whether macro conditions continue to ease or once again turn hostile,” he said in his Monday note. Hansen added that gold continues to be driven by market expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy. Although markets still expect the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates this year, aggressive forecasts have been pared back following last week’s disappointing employment data, which showed that only 57,000 jobs were created in June. At the same time, gold is also benefiting from optimistic comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who emphasized his commitment to price stability and returning inflation to the central bank's target. However, he also said inflation risks had eased in recent weeks since taking over leadership of the Federal Reserve. In a comment to Kitco News, Hansen said he does not expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year as inflation pressures continue to ease, in line with Warsh’s comments. “Forward inflation expectations have collapsed, so tightening when the reason for tightening is easing with energy prices slumping makes no sense. Once that becomes the general market view, the dollar will soften as a very elevated long gets squeezed while short-end bond yields will move back towards Fed Funds rates,” he said. However, until the Federal Reserve’s policy path becomes clearer, Hansen said gold still has a lot of ground to recover, with prices remaining 26% below January’s highs. “Support below USD 4,000 has held so far, but the rebound towards USD 4,200 last week was met with renewed selling, indicating that some investors are still using strength to reduce exposure. Such price action is typical after a deep correction and helps explain why building a durable market trough can take time,” he said. “On the charts, the 200-day moving average near USD 4,485 represents the first major hurdle. Above that, the 38.2% retracement of the roughly USD 1,650 January-to-June correction sits near USD 4,574. A break above these levels would further improve the technical picture. Until then, the recovery is better viewed as an attempt to build a base." Along with growing optimism toward gold, Hansen said he is also encouraged by the recent price action in silver, even though prices on Monday were capped at $63.27 an ounce. “ Silver ’s latest sell-off was arrested ahead of key support in the mid-USD 50s, with the subsequent rebound taking prices back above USD 60. The move is encouraging, but like gold, silver still has considerable work to do to repair the technical and psychological damage inflicted during the past few months. Silver combines gold ’s macro sensitivity with a tighter fundamental backdrop. Multi-year supply deficits and growing industrial demand provide structural support, but the market is much smaller and more flow-sensitive than gold. That makes silver particularly attractive to momentum-driven investors when conditions improve, while also exposing it to sharper liquidation when sentiment reverses,” he said. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-06/gold-price-may-have-found-its-floor-liquidation-gives-way-consolidation

The China rhenium market in H1 2026 generally saw an initial rise and stabilization, followed by a mild pullback and consolidation at highs, driven by four core factors: rigid raw material supply, supply-demand tug-of-war in the industry chain, structural divergence between investment and industrial demand, and price divergence between domestic and overseas markets. In H1, rhenium prices remained supported at high levels by structural supply deficits, yet trading stayed persistently sluggish with strong industry-wide wait-and-see sentiment; there was no clear unilateral trend, and a tug-of-war between longs and shorts ran throughout the period. I. Early February: Cooling Trading, Counter-Trend Price Rise In early February, the rhenium market showed a typical split: market activity fell MoM, but prices climbed steadily. On the sentiment side, gold and silver price fluctuations triggered a cautious mood across precious metals, which spilled over into the minor metals segment—there were many inquiries but few actual deals, with only small amounts of rigid demand supporting transactions, and cautious selling by retail investors led to a significant cooling in trading. On the price side, the core support came from tightening raw material supply. Ammonium rhenate supply remained tight and prices rose, sharply lifting smelting costs for midstream processors and pushing up finished product prices like rhenium pellets. Meanwhile, raw material prices rose faster than the pace of finished product price adjustments, squeezing midstream margins; the industry widely increased scrap recovery ratios to offset cost pressure. At that time, Sinopec’s tender for ammonium rhenate failed, confirming upstream producers’ inclination to hold back from selling and hold prices firm, bullish on the outlook. In the medium and long term, incremental rhenium recovery from copper-molybdenum smelting is limited by raw ore grades and technical barriers, making it difficult to fully close the supply gap, which provides sustained high-level support for rhenium prices. II. Post-Chinese New Year to Early Q2: High-Level Stalemate, Intensified Supply-Demand Tug-of-War After the Chinese New Year holiday, the rhenium market entered a prolonged consolidation phase at highs. Mainstream quotations for raw materials stabilized at 27,000–28,000 yuan/kg, with a few high-priced sources touching 30,000 yuan/kg; the price range was firm with minimal fluctuations. Upstream hold-back-from-selling attitudes gradually softened, with small-scale selling to test market acceptance, but without concentrated dumping, supply increments were manageable and the rigid supply structure remained intact. Midstream processors focused on delivering pre-holiday orders, with production schedules full from March to April. However, their acceptance of high-priced ammonium rhenate was low, and they generally negotiated rationally, refusing to rush to buy amid the continuous price rise. Downstream demand showed structural divergence: investment appetite continued to cool—retail investors exited and low-price selling increased, weighing on market sentiment; meanwhile, steady recovery in industrial demand from aviation, catalysts, and other sectors provided fundamental support, offsetting some bearish factors. At the same time, capital rotated into the energy sector, and speculative interest in minor metals waned, leaving rhenium prices lacking strong upward momentum. Overseas critical mineral competition intensified, raising import supply chain uncertainty and providing long-term bottom support for the market. III. Late Q2: China Pulls Back Weakly, Overseas Strengthens Against Trend In late H1, China’s rhenium market weakened slightly, with raw material and finished product prices pulling back simultaneously, while overseas markets rose independently, resulting in a significant divergence between domestic and overseas trends. In China, the mainstream transaction range for ammonium perrhenate pulled back to 26,000-27,000 yuan/kg, and small and medium-sized producers offered low-priced goods to recoup funds, with spot order prices dropping to 24,000-25,000 yuan/kg, dragging down the overall price center. The mainstream transaction price for rhenium pellets pulled back to around 46,000 yuan/kg. The tug-of-war in the industry chain further intensified. After concentrated restocking at the beginning of the year, downstream inventories were sufficient. Entering the traditional off-season, purchasing sentiment was cautious, with a strong willingness to push for lower prices and probe the bottom, mostly making purchases based on rigid demand in small lots. Upstream still held expectations for the future market, controlling volumes and selling cautiously, which capped the downside room and prevented a sharp decline. Overseas markets saw strong demand resilience and tight supply, with prices of ammonium perrhenate and rhenium pellets continuing to rise. However, the rise in overseas markets had limited boosting effect on the domestic market, and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to diverge. IV. Summary of Key Bullish and Bearish Factors in H1 (I) Key Bullish Factors First, as a rare and dispersed metal by-product of copper and molybdenum, rhenium has strong primary supply rigidity, while recovery capacity release is slow, leading to a long-standing structural supply-demand gap. Second, intensified exclusivity in the critical minerals supply chain outside China has raised import risks, and expectations of tightening supply in the long term underpin the market. Third, industrial rigid demand has been recovering steadily, providing continuous fundamental support. Fourth, upstream producers’ willingness to hold prices firm is solid, with no concentrated sell-offs, limiting downside room for the market. (II) Key Bearish Factors First, the ebb of speculative capital and repeated retail selling disturbed spot prices, with sluggish trading activity. Second, raw material cost transmission was sluggish, squeezing midstream profits, increasing the substitution ratio of scrap, and contracting demand for primary ammonium perrhenate. Third, after completing phased restocking, downstream purchasing willingness was weak in the off-season, making it difficult to spur a market rebound. Fourth, the decoupling of domestic and overseas market trends prevented the bullish benefit of overseas price increases from transmitting to the domestic market. V. Overall Summary of H1 In H1 2026, the rhenium market overall showed features of consolidating at highs, mixed bullish and bearish factors, and weak transactions. The market underwent three stages: price increases, sideways consolidation, and a weak pullback. The core contradiction has always been the two-way balance between rigid upstream supply underpinning prices and weak downstream demand, coupled with capital outflows capping gains. Industry chain profits diverged significantly: the upstream resource segment had stable earnings, while midstream processing enterprises remained under pressure, and the industry accelerated the pace of scrap recovery and recycling. Overall, there was no one-sided trend in H1. The tug-of-war between suppliers and buyers dominated market movements. The structural supply-demand gap supported high-level operation and laid the fundamental foundation for the rhenium market’s consolidating pattern in H2.

This week, finished steel continued its gradual decline, while raw materials began to stabilize, with coking coal rebounding to some extent. During the week, rumors about a coal mine accident in Shanxi and customs clearance restrictions at the Mongolian border spread, boosting sentiment. Coupled with the China Mineral Resources talks, the raw materials side rebounded from lows. In the second half of the week, as rumors of maintenance at steel mills across various regions emerged, negative feedback expectations intensified somewhat, and raw materials pulled back. Approaching the weekend, however, the 10th round of coke price increases was initiated, pushing coking coal and coke futures higher. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics of end-users became increasingly evident, with the market restocking at low prices as needed. With spot prices remaining relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread continued to widen...

[SMM Daily Review: Silver Prices Weaken Under Pressure; Spot Supply and Demand Both Weak, Premiums Steady] SMM, June 30: Macro pressure and weakening industrial demand continue to weigh on silver prices, with the market awaiting guidance from non-farm payrolls data. At month-end, spot supply and demand are both weak, transactions are light, and premiums remain steady within their range.

[Price Review] This week (6.22-6.25) silver prices stayed high but under pressure, plunging sharply. The precious metals price center moved notably lower WoW amid multiple bearish macro factors. The US Fed's hawkish stance continued to weigh on sentiment, and several foreign investment banks raised their expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in the latest reports. Along with a stronger US dollar index, this created significant downward pressure on precious metals. US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated that the US will maintain its strong dollar policy, and stressed that the future reintegration of countries like Iran and Venezuela into the dollar system would further consolidate the dollar's international standing. As a result, the US dollar index continued to rebound. On the geopolitical front, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement continued to advance, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returned to normal. On the industrial demand side, mainstream quotations for national standard silver ingots versus TD in the Shanghai market were basically flat WoW, with the market transaction center still mainly concentrated at Shanghai Gold Exchange TD parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg. As silver prices continued to decline, the procurement pace of downstream enterprises recovered somewhat, but overall was still dominated by just-in-time procurement, with limited willingness to stockpile in bulk and some enterprises showing noticeable fear of further price declines. On the inventory front, social inventories of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen saw slight destocking, with ongoing consumption from maintenance at some smelters and deliveries of export orders, but the supportive effect of inventory factors on prices was limited. As for the gold/silver ratio, by June 24 the LBMA gold/silver ratio had rebounded to around 67, with silver underperforming gold. [Key Data] Bearish: 1. US Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated the strong dollar stance, stating that the dollar's international status would be further strengthened, driving the US dollar index to continue rebounding. 2. The hawkish impact of the Fed's June meeting continued to weigh, and several foreign investment banks raised their expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in the latest reports. 3. US bond yields stayed high, with real rates keeping continuous pressure on precious metals, while capital allocation preferences remained skewed toward dollar assets. [Near-Term Focus] June 26: US Q1 GDP final reading; June 27: US May core PCE price index; July 3: US June non-farm payrolls data; Key focus: changes in US inflation data, Fed official remarks, US dollar index movements, and subsequent developments in the Middle East situation. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend next week. The current core market logic is the Fed's policy path and the US dollar’s movement. After the June meeting, the Fed's hawkish stance continues to weigh, and Bessent's recent strong dollar remarks have pushed the US dollar index higher. At the same time, US bond yields stay high, creating multiple macro pressures on silver. On the domestic fundamental side, the spot market overall maintained a just-in-time procurement pattern. Spot silver ingot social inventory continued destocking, but this was insufficient to alter the current macro-driven adjustment trend. The mainstream traded price for spot silver ingot is expected to remain within a range of parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg over the SGE TD price, and further expansion of the premium will be difficult in the short term. Overall, with a strengthening US dollar and the US Fed maintaining a hawkish stance, silver still faces adjustment pressure in the near term. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. Watch for further guidance from the US core PCE data on market expectations.

In May, China's silver concentrate imports fell 15.8% MoM, with Peru remaining the top supplier. Refined silver exports dropped 11% MoM, while imports plunged 69% as the price premium narrowed. Trade windows are gradually normalizing toward June.

Fed Hawkish Signals Exceed Expectations; Precious Metals Under Short-Term Pressure but Downside Limited June 18 — At 2:00 AM Beijing Time on June 18, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive hold. The statement was significantly shortened in length and removed language hinting at further rate cuts. The dot plot showed nine officials expect a rate hike this year, while newly appointed Chairman Warsh did not submit a dot plot and declined to provide forward guidance. Hawkish signals pushed market pricing for a year-end rate hike up to 38 basis points. From a policy perspective, this FOMC meeting delivered hawkish signals that exceeded market expectations. Combined with the return of rate-hike expectations in the dot plot, it signals that the Fed's communication tone has shifted from "pause and watch" to "potential hiking," putting near-term pressure on precious metals. However, the fourth consecutive hold itself was in line with market expectations, and any actual rate hike still requires more data for validation, so the marginal impact of the policy signal itself is relatively limited. More critically, earlier economic data — U.S. May nonfarm payrolls rose by 172,000, beating expectations, with a combined upward revision of 93,000 for March-April — underscores that labor market resilience remains the most significant headwind suppressing rate-cut expectations and is the core bearish factor for precious metals recently. By contrast, May headline CPI matched expectations while core CPI came in slightly below consensus, meaning inflation data did not reinforce the tightening narrative beyond expectations, and its bearish impact is comparatively moderate. On balance, precious metals face dual pressure from hawkish policy signals and labor market resilience, but the elevated rate-hike expectations are still in the pricing-in phase, and the market may not form a systemic downward resonance at current levels. The trading logic will continue to hinge on subsequent nonfarm payrolls, CPI data, and actual communication from Warsh. US-Iran Peace Talks Advance; Geopolitical Risk Premium Unwinds June 18 — The presidents of the United States and Iran have signed an electronic memorandum of understanding (MoU). The official 14-point text largely matches prior media disclosures, and both sides are set to formally sign the agreement in Switzerland on Friday. Trump stated that if follow-up implementation of the MoU falls short of satisfaction, bombing operations would resume, and also revealed discussions with Syrian leaders on striking Hezbollah. Meanwhile, southern Lebanon witnessed multiple Israeli attacks, and Israel's finance minister indicated no withdrawal on Friday or thereafter. The geopolitical situation remains in a complex tug-of-war characterized by "negotiations alongside conflict." In the near term, the signing of the MoU marks a substantive phase in ceasefire negotiations, with market expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz strengthening, leading to further unwinding of the risk premium. Should the formal agreement be finalized on Friday, structural concerns over crude supply would materially ease, putting downward pressure on the oil price center, which in turn would cool global inflation expectations. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, if sustained oil weakness drives down energy costs, the Fed's monetary policy room would reopen, and market logic could gradually shift from "tightening expectations" toward a "rate-cut cycle," potentially offering new macro support for precious metals. Overall, US-Iran relations are currently in a phase of "peace talks advancing, conflicts unresolved," and market pricing will revolve around Friday's agreement implementation and subsequent execution risks in a repeated back-and-forth manner. Early Hiking Cycle Pressure Does Not Alter Long-Term Logic; Precious Metals' Allocation Value Remains Prominent Historical experience shows that in the early stages of every rate-hiking cycle, precious metals typically come under pressure from rising nominal rates and a stronger dollar, but the trend is not unidirectional downward. As the hiking cycle deepens, growing concerns over recession risks and liquidity stress increasingly highlight gold's role as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset, with its price center tending to rise in the middle-to-late stages. Therefore, even if the Fed continues on a hawkish path, the pressure on precious metals may not be sustained; liquidity conditions and shifts in macro expectations also influence price dynamics. Of course, our overall bullish long-term logic for precious metals remains unchanged: First, global central banks continue to accumulate gold, with de-dollarization and reserve diversification strategies providing a solid floor for gold prices. Second, the U.S. dollar's credit system faces deep erosion — high interest rates on U.S. Treasuries imply high risk, and over the long run, U.S. debt rollover pressures and fiscal indiscipline are accelerating global de-dollarization. Third, the ever-expanding U.S. government debt stock and deteriorating fiscal sustainability raise the risk of future debt monetization and dollar depreciation. As a non-liability, supra-sovereign hard asset, gold's safe-haven and store-of-value functions hold irreplaceable appeal in the current macro environment. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts continue to simmer without truly subsiding, while global supply chains and energy markets remain volatile, with inflation persistence lingering. These uncertainties will collectively underpin the demand for gold and silver as safe-haven allocation assets, further boosting their strategic value over the medium-to-long term. From the Gold/Silver Ratio Perspective: Silver Under Pressure in the Short Term, but Outperforming Gold in the Medium-to-Long Term Remains Intact Historically, the gold/silver ratio exhibits significant mean-reverting behavior, with its long-term center roughly fluctuating between 60 and 70. However, under extreme macro environments, it can deviate markedly — for instance, the ratio widened sharply after the 2008 financial crisis and approached a historical extreme near 120 during the 2020 pandemic. The underlying dynamic is that during extreme risk-off episodes, the market prioritizes gold as a safe-haven asset, while silver, burdened by its industrial metal characteristics, tends to face systematic selling. Thus, the gold/silver ratio's cyclical movement can be summarized as: widening during crises (silver underperforms) and narrowing during recovery/inflation cycles (silver outperforms). Its essence is a cyclical indicator driven by the alternating dominance of safe-haven attributes versus industrial attributes. In the near term, the gold/silver ratio is more prone to stage-wise upward moves or range-bound drift with an upward bias. On one hand, silver has already posted notable gains, with crowded positioning making it more vulnerable to pullback pressure. On the other hand, the photovoltaic industry — a key pillar of silver industrial demand — is expected to see cell silver consumption decline by 9.51% year-over-year in 2026, and with ongoing silver-reduction progress and evolving cell product structures, annual silver consumption is projected to maintain a roughly 5 percentage-point decline through 2030. Although positive terminal installation expectations may boost cell production volumes, translating to some incremental demand, when converted to silver demand, a roughly 20% decline is anticipated this year. Over the long cycle, 2026 also marks a pivotal turning point in silver's industrial demand structure. The low-voltage electrical equipment sector, as a rigid support segment, exhibits strong irreplaceability in its silver demand. Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, PCBs, and SiC chips are rapidly expanding their end-market bases, and despite unchanged unit silver consumption, overall demand continues to grow steadily. Therefore, we maintain our core view that the gold/silver ratio will trend downward in the medium-to-long term — i.e., we are constructive on silver outperforming gold. The driving logic will gradually shift from rates and liquidity toward energy transition and industrial demand. Silver is transforming from a traditional precious metal into a strategically important industrial metal with rising exposure to photovoltaics, AI data centers, and grid upgrades, while supply remains highly inelastic due to its heavy dependence on lead-zinc and copper byproduct production. Once the global economy enters a rate-cutting cycle or real rates decline, silver's industrial elasticity will significantly amplify its upside potential, whereas gold, supported more by central bank buying and safe-haven demand, tends to follow a smoother trajectory.