This week, ferrous metals moved sideways and upward. During the week, as US-Iran negotiations made no progress and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, combined with declining US crude oil inventories, Brent crude oil surged sharply, driving coking coal higher. Although BHP port spot cargoes were available for purchase, which was bearish for market sentiment, futures had already priced in related expectations earlier, so iron ore pullback was limited and cost support was relatively neutral. The Politburo meeting held mid-week had low direct correlation with ferrous metals, and ferrous metals fluctuated at highs during the week. Spot market side, end-users restocked at low prices before the holiday, and as futures rose in the latter half of the week, speculative demand was also released...

Lead concentrate TCs remained generally stable this week. Some mine enterprises indicated that lead concentrate TCs had almost no room for further decline, while imported ore prices were still mainly quoted at -$150 to -$130/dmt. Affected by the recent tight supply-demand conditions of zinc concentrates and copper concentrates, some suppliers of lead concentrates rich in zinc and copper adjusted the pricing methods for copper and zinc. Although the comprehensive value of such copper- and zinc-rich lead concentrates was raised, the pricing of lead and precious metals within them remained unchanged, and the silver payable indicators for lead concentrates with various silver contents in the market remained firm.

On April 30, 2026, DCE iron ore futures strengthened, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 796 yuan/mt, up 1.60% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose 2-5 from the previous day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in quoting, steel mills restocked on demand with few inquiries; overall spot transactions were lackluster. According to the latest SMM statistics, total iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide stood at 150.08 million mt, down 1.09 million mt MoM, showing slight destocking. Meanwhile, daily average port pick-up volume rebounded to 3.305 million mt, up 118,000 mt WoW. Although hot metal production pulled back slightly WoW, the overall destocking trend indicated that iron ore demand remained relatively strong. Currently, restocking demand ahead of the Labour Day holiday has largely concluded, and upward momentum driven by fundamentals is expected to weaken in the short term. On the other hand, affected by related policy adjustments, market panic emerged over iron ore and downstream trade liquidity, with sentiment continuing to ferment, driving iron ore spot prices to rise sharply. In the short term, iron ore prices may still hold up well, but close attention should be paid to potential impacts from shifts in market sentiment.

[Some Mine Tender Prices Continued to Decline, Awaiting May Negotiation Pricing]: Based on weekly data, the SMM Zn50 domestic weekly average TC fell 200 yuan/mt Zn WoW to 850 yuan/mt Zn, and the SMM imported zinc concentrates index dropped $3.12/dmt WoW to -$39.25/dmt...

Iron ore futures traded stronger today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 787.5 yuan/mt, up 0.90% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose 6-7 from the previous day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in quoting, while steel mills maintained a strong wait-and-see attitude with fewer inquiries; overall spot transactions were thin. Fundamentals: According to the latest SMM survey data, daily average hot metal production pulled back to 2.4405 million mt, down 8,900 mt WoW. Some steel mills have successively formulated short-term maintenance plans, and overall hot metal production has begun to show signs of peaking and pulling back. Nevertheless, as downstream demand and cost support remain relatively solid, iron ore price support remains firm. Additionally, influenced by recent policies, market expectations for tightening liquidity in bulk commodities were strong, with some bullish sentiment emerging in the market overall; however, in the long term, tightening of iron ore trade liquidity is not sustainable. Therefore, ore prices may continue to fluctuate at highs in the short term, without a strong unilateral trend.

Iron ore futures were in the doldrums today, declining in the morning session before rebounding in the afternoon. The most-traded contract I2609 ultimately closed at 780.5 yuan/mt, down 0.89% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell 2-5 from the previous day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering, and steel mills restocked on an as-needed basis; overall spot transactions were thin. Affected by the lifting of BHP's spot cargo restrictions, futures dipped slightly in the morning session, but no panic selling was observed. The near-term increase in spot cargo circulation is expected to cap upside room for iron ore. Additionally, according to market sources, the Simandou mine is expected to accelerate its shipment pace in the near term. Combined with the recent trend of rising mine shipments and port arrivals, supply side is expected to exert downward pressure on ore prices in the short term. Considering the demand side, iron ore prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term.

As of April 24, the average domestic zinc concentrate TC dropped to 1,050 yuan/mt in metal content, and the imported zinc concentrate TC fell to -$36.13/dmt. Overall, zinc concentrate TCs continued to decline, with imported zinc concentrate TCs deepening further into negative territory. In May, domestic zinc concentrate TCs in multiple regions plan to further drop to three-digit levels.

Today, DCE iron ore futures showed an N-shaped trend, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 786 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous closing price. Spot prices remained stable compared to the previous day as of now. Traders were active in quoting, while steel mills made fewer inquiries; overall spot cargo trading was sluggish. Last week, according to SMM statistics, global iron ore shipments reached 32.27 million mt, up only 2% from the previous period; meanwhile, China's iron ore port arrivals reached 24.31 million mt, surging 4.11 million mt (20%) WoW. Shipments from Brazil and Australia showed clear signs of recovery from the impact of weather factors in the previous period. Therefore, in the short term, there is some room for growth on the supply side, which, combined with inventory at a relatively high level, exerts downward pressure on iron ore prices. With expectations that hot metal production will stay high, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 2.5 Futures: During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,824 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,824 yuan/mt, hit a low of 2,781 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,788 yuan/mt, down 36 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 7,776 lots to 383,000 lots, indicating an overall cautious market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the closing price was above MA10 (2,777.80) and MA30 (2,772.63), providing some upward momentum, but below MA5 (2,792.20), limiting gains with overhead pressure still present. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DIF (7.18) crossed above DEA (0.19), with the bullish crossover at low levels weakening and the histogram narrowing to 13.96, suggesting alumina futures are expected to continue weakening in the near term. Industry Updates: 1) Overseas alumina transactions: On February 3, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $310/mt FOB Western Australia for March shipment. The previous transaction was on January 20 at $304/mt FOB Western Australia for February shipment. Ore: As of February 4, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $62.42/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $61/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $60/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $56/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $47/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $60/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was $73/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $71.5/mt, down $2/mt from last Friday. Domestic ore side, bauxite production resumptions in Shanxi were active, with currently ample supply. Combined with some domestic ore production lines planning to upgrade to imported ore lines recently, domestic ore demand weakened again, and prices were under pressure. Imported ore side, market transactions were sluggish, with offer prices continuing to decline. Some alumina refineries reported that amid falling ore prices, procurement plans remained cautious. SMM will continue to monitor domestic and overseas mines' production, port shipments, and price trends. Spot Prices: As of February 4, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,619.87 yuan/mt, down 0.27 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,549.77 yuan/mt, down 0.19 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,617.91 yuan/mt, down 0.92 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,604.23 yuan/mt, down 0.26 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,693.56 yuan/mt, down 0.23 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,674 yuan/mt, down 0.33 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on February 4, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 208.13 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 AM. Warrant Daily Report: On February 4, total registered alumina warrants increased by 6,944 mt from the previous trading day to 196,300 mt. Shandong region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 7,796 mt. Henan region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 1,203 mt. Guangxi region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 7,505 mt. Gansu region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 17,400 mt. Xinjiang region alumina warrants increased by 6,944 mt from the previous trading day to 162,400 mt. Markets Outside China: As of February 4, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $310/mt, the ocean freight rate was $20.2/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.95. This translated to a selling price at China's major ports of approximately 2,674.83 yuan/mt, which was 54.96 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index price. According to SMM model calculations, the import window was closed. Summary: Overall, as of last Thursday, China's alumina market inventory edged up slightly, with the overall oversupply pattern continuing. Currently, some alumina refineries have started maintenance, with enterprises across various regions arranging production shutdowns of different scales, leading to a decline in the industry operating rate and a weekly production decrease of 35,000 mt to 1.636 million mt. Inventory side, as more enterprises underwent maintenance, alumina in-factory inventory decreased by 3,000 mt to 1.2408 million mt. Aluminum enterprises' raw material inventory edged up slightly to 3.603 million mt, mainly due to continued shipments under long-term contract orders. Warrants, attracted by previously strong futures prices, saw increased delivery willingness, rising by 40,000 mt to 159,100 mt, while in-transit and platform inventory decreased by 30,000 mt as cargoes gradually arrived at end-users. Overall, although the pace of inventory buildup has slowed down compared to the earlier period, overall industry inventory pressure persists, and the destocking progress has fallen short of expectations. Going forward, attention should be paid to the execution of enterprise maintenance plans. If the supply side fails to sustain contraction, inventory is expected to maintain a slight buildup trend next week, and spot alumina prices are expected to be in the doldrums. [Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

DCE iron ore futures trended weaker today. The most-traded contract I2609 ultimately closed at 783.5 yuan/mt, down 0.32% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell 0-2 yuan/mt as of now. Traders were active in quoting, while steel mill purchases were mostly for rigid demand; overall spot transactions were thin. According to an SMM survey, total inventories across 10 ports this week were 114.32 million mt, down 1.16 million mt WoW. Lump ore and high-grade ore saw notable destocking, indicating strong demand from steel mills for higher ore grades. Combined with the current blast furnace utilization rate of sample steel mills exceeding 90%, downside support for ore prices is expected to remain solid. Additionally, there was no further news on whether previously restricted port inventories would be released, and bearish sentiment in the market gradually faded. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend at highs in the short term.