In mid-June 2026, the CAAM and the China Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance successively released relevant data on the automobile and power battery markets for May 2026. The CAAM stated that in May, auto production and sales rose MoM but edged down YoY. Affected by multiple factors including policy adjustments, changes in market structure, and a macro environment under pressure, the Chinese market continued to show a double-digit decline YoY; meanwhile, exports were strong and sustained rapid growth. .......SMM has compiled the relevant data on the automobile and power battery markets for May 2026, for readers’ reference. Automobile CAAM: May Auto Production and Sales Reached 2.616 Million and 2.629 Million Units, Both Up MoM In May, auto production and sales reached 2.616 million and 2.629 million units, up 1.6% and 4.1% MoM respectively , and down 1.2% and 2.1% YoY respectively. From January to May, auto production and sales totaled 12.235 million and 12.207 million units, down 4.6% and 4.2% YoY respectively, with the declines narrowing further compared with the first four months. CAAM: May NEV Production and Sales Rose 22.4% and 14.4% YoY Respectively; NEV Sales Accounted for 47.5% of Total New Vehicle Sales In May, NEV production and sales reached 1.554 million and 1.496 million units, up 22.4% and 14.4% YoY respectively . NEV sales accounted for 56.9% of total new vehicle sales. From January to May, NEV production and sales reached 5.841 million and 5.802 million units, up 2.5% and 3.5% YoY respectively, and NEV sales accounted for 47.5% of total new vehicle sales. CAAM: NEV Exports More Than Doubled in May and January-May In May, NEV exports reached 446,000 units, up 3.8% MoM and 110% YoY. Of these, passenger NEV exports stood at 435,000 units, up 3.4% MoM and 110% YoY; commercial NEV exports reached 12,000 units, up 21% MoM and 48.1% YoY. From January to May, NEV exports totaled 1.833 million units, up 110% YoY . Of these, passenger NEV exports were 1.792 million units, up 120% YoY; commercial NEV exports were 41,000 units, up 0.6% YoY. The CAAM commented that in May, auto production and sales rose MoM but edged down YoY. Affected by multiple factors such as policy adjustments, market structure changes, and a macro environment under pressure, the Chinese market continued to see a double-digit decline YoY; exports developed robustly, sustaining a rapid growth trajectory. By car model, passenger vehicle sales edged down YoY, commercial vehicle sales maintained growth, and the NEV market stabilized and rebounded. Since the beginning of this year, the auto market has exhibited a pronounced characteristic of "domestic demand under pressure, foreign trade strong." The industry's operations have faced multiple challenges, including insufficient domestic demand, high costs, and external shocks. On the end-user side, policies and market expectations should be stabilized, industry governance deepened, restrictive measures introduced cautiously, and the consumption baseline solidified; on the foreign trade side, it is necessary to deepen international development, effectively address various risks and challenges, and strengthen the stabilizing support role of the international cycle. Meanwhile, the CPCA also released data on the passenger vehicle market for May. From May 1st to 31st, retail sales of passenger vehicles nationwide reached 1.51 million units, down 22.1% YoY, but up 9.2% MoM; cumulative retail sales since the start of the year reached 7.099 million units, down 19.5% YoY. In the NEV segment, May NEV retail sales fell 7% YoY, with domestic brands declining 10%, mainstream joint ventures growing 51%, and luxury brands growing 8%. Domestic retail sales of domestic economy EVs were significantly impacted by the sharp drop in subsidies. Due to strong subsidies for NEV commercial vehicles, the low and mid-end MPV segment experienced a relatively large decline. In terms of NEV exports, passenger NEV exports in May reached 424,000 units , up 112.6% YoY and up 4.4% MoM. These accounted for 54.1% of total passenger vehicle exports, an increase of 9.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Among them, BEVs accounted for 59.3% of NEV exports (compared to 66.1% same period last year), with the core focal A00+A0 class BEVs accounting for 53.8% of BEV exports (compared to 50.7% same period last year). Alongside the emerging scale advantages of Chinese NEVs and the demand for market expansion, an increasing number of Chinese-made NEV branded products are going overseas, with their recognition outside China continuously improving. Among NEV exports, narrow-body plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for 36.2% (compared to 31.9% same period last year), and extended-range EVs accounted for 4.4% (compared to 2.0% same period last year). Although external interference from certain countries has occurred recently, the export of domestic narrow-body plug-in hybrids to developing countries has grown rapidly and shows bright prospects. The CPCA stated that the domestic passenger vehicle market in May 2026 presented an operational dynamic of overall volume under pressure, MoM strengthening, and extreme structural differentiation, without achieving a substantive recovery overall. The slight recovery in the auto market in May was mainly attributed to the evident effectiveness of the industry's "anti-involution" efforts, stabilizing automaker sales promotions and weakening the consumer expectation of price cuts. This, combined with the warmth-boosting effect of the Beijing Auto Show, released some pent-up car purchase demand, forming a phased terminal rebound. It said that the core features of the auto market in May were the collapse of internal combustion engine vehicle domestic sales, the strong dominance of new energy vehicles, and the counter-trend growth of exports. The main cause of the domestic auto market decline was the sharp contraction in fuel vehicle sales under the impact of high oil prices. In May, fuel vehicles accounted for a 37.1% share, but their YoY decline contributed 82% of the total decline in passenger vehicles, dragging down the overall market trend. Factors such as high oil prices and consumption transformation accelerated the "fuel-to-electric substitution" process. This month, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles continued to exceed 60%, reaching a historical high of 62.9%. The electrification transformation of joint venture brands accelerated. In May, sales of new energy JV car models grew 51% YoY, while fuel vehicle sales fell 41% YoY. Exports continued to be the industry's core growth engine. In May, the share of new energy in exports hit a new high of 54%, but fuel vehicle exports also showed strong performance with 46% growth, forming an exceptionally strong performance of China's all-round export growth. Characteristics of the passenger vehicle market in May 2026: 1. Overall volume was under pressure, with major structural divergence, and "fuel cold, new energy hot" became the biggest focus. The core reason for the decline in domestic retail was the "fuel collapse," which drove the new energy retail penetration rate to break through 60% to 62.9% (a new high), with the pace of electrification substitution exceeding expectations. 2. The electrification transformation of joint venture brands accelerated. In May, domestic retail sales of mainstream JV new energy vehicles grew 51% YoY, while the overall growth rate of domestic new energy vehicles slowed by 10%. JV brands such as Buick (with new energy accounting for 45%) began to show initial results in their shift to new energy. 3. Exports showed explosive growth, with new energy accounting for 54% (a new high) in exports, driven by both new energy and domestic brands, and going global becoming the core growth engine. 4. Clear characteristics of passive destocking and a relatively rapid decline in channel inventories. Listed dealers suffered overall losses, and dealer survival pressure continued to increase. 5. Independent brands made notable breakthroughs in the high-end segment, with retail sales of passenger vehicles in the 200,000-300,000 yuan, 300,000-400,000 yuan, and above 400,000 yuan price segments all exceeding 50%. 6. Micro EVs were under pressure, A-class cars shrank, entry-level consumption badly needed support, and the launch of economy EV standards was eagerly anticipated. Power Battery Update In April, power and ESS battery sales grew 47.4% YoY. January-May cumulative sales grew 48.5% YoY. In May, China's power and ESS battery sales reached 182.2 GWh, up 11.0% MoM and 47.4% YoY . Among them, power battery sales were 127.0 GWh, accounting for 69.7% of total sales, up 16.6% MoM and 45.2% YoY; ESS battery sales were 55.2 GWh, accounting for 30.3% of total sales, down 0.1% MoM but up 52.7% YoY. From January to May, China's cumulative power and ESS battery sales reached 783.4 GWh, up 48.5% YoY . Of this, cumulative power battery sales reached 527.9 GWh, accounting for 67.4% of total sales, up 34.9% YoY; cumulative ESS battery sales were 255.5 GWh, accounting for 32.6% of total sales, up 87.7% YoY. May China power battery installations up 25.9% YoY, LFP share at 81.2% In May, China's power battery installations reached 71.9 GWh, up 15.2% MoM and 25.9% YoY . Ternary battery installations were 13.4 GWh, accounting for 18.6% of total installations, up 15.9% MoM and 27.3% YoY; LFP battery installations were 58.4 GWh, accounting for 81.2% of total installations, up 14.9% MoM and 25.4% YoY. From January to May, cumulative power battery installations in China reached 259.1 GWh, up 7.3% YoY . Ternary battery cumulative installations were 50.8 GWh, accounting for 19.6% of total installations, up 13.3% YoY; LFP battery cumulative installations were 208.2 GWh, accounting for 80.4% of total installations, up 6.0% YoY. May: Leap Motor dominated among NEV startups; BYD's export growth impressive In early June, May domestic NEV sales/delivery figures were released. BYD continued to lead the global NEV market with sales exceeding 380,000 units. Among domestic NEV startups, Leap Motor's outstanding performance once again ignited market enthusiasm, setting a new monthly delivery record with over 80,000 units! Details are as follows: BYD: According to its announcement, BYD sold a total of 383,453 vehicles in May, including 376,990 passenger vehicles. By brand: Dynasty/Ocean series sold 330,215 units; Fang Cheng Bao sold 30,186 units; Denza sold 16,303 units; Yangwang sold 286 units. From January to May, BYD's cumulative sales reached 1,405,039 units. The company's cumulative NEV sales surpassed 16.5 million units. BYD's sales recovery was mainly supported by exports. Data shows that in May, BYD's overseas sales reached 161,000 units, up 80.4% YoY. NEV Startups: In May, Leap Motor delivered 81,569 vehicles across its entire lineup, up 81% YoY, setting a new historical high for monthly deliveries. The company's NEV sales grew steadily, maintaining its lead. Leap Motor also performed excellently in Italy's pure electric vehicle market, with monthly registrations reaching 4,765 units, up 1,278% YoY, and its pure electric market share reaching a record high of 34.5%. NIO delivered a total of 37,705 new vehicles in May, up 62.3% YoY and 28.4% MoM. Specifically, NIO brand deliveries reached 20,013 units, up 50.8% YoY; Ledao brand delivered 12,029 units, up 91.5% YoY and 124.8% MoM; and Firefly brand delivered 5,663 units, up 53.9% YoY and 13.7% MoM. In the first five months of this year, NIO delivered a total of 150,526 new vehicles, representing a 68.7% YoY increase. To date, NIO's cumulative deliveries have reached 1,148,118 units. Li Auto ranked third among NEV startups with monthly deliveries of 33,350 units this time. As of May 31, 2026, Li Auto's cumulative deliveries reached 1,702,792 units. Li Xiang, Chairman and CEO of Li Auto, said that since Q1 this year, Li Auto's deliveries have entered a growth trajectory, reclaiming the top spot among Chinese brands in the NEV market priced above 200,000 yuan. As of May 31, 2026, Li Auto had 498 retail centers across China, covering 160 cities; and 543 after-sales repair centers and authorized service centers, covering 222 cities. Li Auto has put into use 4,088 Li Auto supercharging stations nationwide, equipped with 22,563 charging piles. XPeng Motors delivered 32,158 new vehicles in May. On May 20, the new technology flagship XPeng GX was officially launched and began deliveries. Within 12 hours of launch, firm orders reached 24,863 units, with the Ultra flagship edition accounting for over 80% of orders. Showroom traffic and test drive volume hit a record high for the same period of any new car launch, making it one of the most popular products among users in the high-end luxury car market and a key step in XPeng Group's brand elevation. In the global market, XPeng maintained strong momentum. In April, overseas deliveries of the P7+ commenced, and monthly overseas sales exceeded 6,000 units for the first time. As of the end of Q1, XPeng had entered over 60 countries and regions worldwide, with 393 overseas sales outlets. Starting from Q2, international business revenue contribution is expected to exceed 20%. In H2 this year, XPeng plans to deliver four global car models, aiming to achieve sustained monthly overseas sales of over 10,000 units in Q4 and more than double full-year overseas sales. Xiaomi Auto's monthly deliveries continued to exceed 30,000 units in May, and its cumulative deliveries surpassed 139,000 units from January to May. On June 13, the latest news, Lei Jun, Chairman of Xiaomi Group, posted on Weibo that Xiaomi Auto attaches great importance to testing, with massive investment and scale. Currently, the testing team consists of over 800 members, of which over 45% are experts with more than 10 years of experience. This team has conducted tests in more than 300 cities and completed over 35 million kilometers of cumulative testing. Xiaomi Auto has 126 laboratories across four cities—Beijing, Nanjing, Shanghai, and Wuhan—covering a total area of over 65,600 m². It has also rented two full-vehicle comprehensive testing grounds in Yancheng, Jiangsu, and Guangde, Anhui. There is a dedicated team of around 500 personnel for extreme environment testing. This team is split into summer testing and winter testing units and is mainly responsible for four major extreme environment tests: Heihe (extreme cold), Turpan (extreme heat), the Kunlun Mountains (high altitude), and Hainan (high humidity). Overall, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the CPCA, noted that the key features of the auto market in May were “sluggish domestic sales of internal combustion engine vehicles, strong dominance of new energy vehicles, and YoY growth in exports amid headwinds.” Based on the current industry situation, the CPCA adjusted market expectations, revising the decline in full-year domestic passenger vehicle retail sales to 11%, from the 1% decline forecasted at the start of the year. Cui Dongshu stated that the auto market will gradually stabilize and improve in Q3, return to a growth trajectory in Q4, and the full-year decline in domestic passenger vehicle retail sales is expected to narrow to 11%, with the market still holding recovery potential. If the global situation stabilizes, commodity and oil prices return to reasonable ranges, transportation costs subsequently pull back, domestic consumer confidence in car purchases will gradually recover, and the auto retail market will also see a sustained recovery. Looking ahead to June, the CPCA projects that China’s domestic passenger vehicle market in June 2026 will present a weak recovery pattern of “MoM recovery, YoY pressure,” with the market slowly mending based on its own fundamentals. As a month-end period, June sees automakers pushing for their semi-annual sales targets, with OEMs and end-user stores increasing order replenishment efforts, a key positive factor supporting MoM recovery. There will be 21 working days this month, forming a YoY advantage of one extra working day compared to the base of 20 working days in June last year, providing a positive boost to overall production and sales. However, based on past experience, during months when the World Cup is held, the auto market’s sequential performance tends to be weaker. It fell 7% MoM in June 2018, and by 4% MoM in both June 2010 and June 2014. The negative impacts from the previous reduction in passenger vehicle trade-in subsidies and the cooling of the industry price war have been largely absorbed, marking an end to negative policy factors and providing a foundation for market recovery. End-user pace, the auto market showed a “front-loaded and then stabilizing” trend. Combined with the month-end semi-annual sales push effect, the overall monthly trajectory was relatively steady. Notably, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday fell on June 19 this year, significantly later than its May 31 date last year. The concentrated disruption from holiday foot traffic and diverted consumer spending affected the market this month, slightly suppressing mid-month car ordering enthusiasm and partially offsetting some of the benefits from the semi-annual month-end sales push and extra working days. This emerged as a key seasonal factor influencing the monthly trend. It is worth noting that geopolitical conflicts have driven international oil prices to fluctuate at highs, causing the cost of using fuel vehicles in China to keep climbing. This not only directly suppresses the willingness to purchase fuel vehicles but also adds to residents' expenditure pressure, further weakening overall car purchase consumption power and becoming a core factor constraining significant YoY growth in the auto market. At the same time, however, high oil prices have also been continuously accelerating the transition to vehicle electrification. Coupled with the momentum of pushing for half-year targets at the end of June, automakers have introduced compliant concession policies such as interest subsidies and car purchase gift packages for new energy models. Together with the concentrated delivery of multiple new NEV models, the industry's product portfolio has been continuously improved, and strength on the supply side has increased substantially. Currently, industry inventory is being gradually and orderly digested, the vicious price war has largely subsided, and terminals are clearing inventory through mild sales promotions, making market competition trend toward a benign state. Driven by multiple favorable factors, the passenger NEV penetration rate is expected to remain firmly above 60%, with the electrification process continuing to accelerate, becoming the core pillar supporting the resilience of the auto market. Against the backdrop of sluggish domestic demand, automobile exports have become the core pillar of industry growth, creating a pattern of "weak domestic demand, leading overseas demand." Chinese automakers continue to deepen their presence in overseas markets, focusing on diverse markets such as Latin America and Europe, effectively offsetting the impact of declining demand in the Middle East, with export sales maintaining high growth. Relying on the mature domestic new energy industry chain and high-quality products, automobile exports continue to move upscale and upgrade across all categories, effectively offsetting the growth pressure in the Chinese market and supporting the overall stable operation of the industry. Overall, the Passenger Vehicle Association estimates that the auto market's recovery momentum in June will be limited, structural potential remains large, and the overall weak recovery trend will persist.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,744/mt, dipped to $13,725/mt shortly after the opening, then its price center fluctuated upward to touch $13,822.5/mt, followed by wild swings and finally closed at $13,796.5/mt, up 0.61%. Trading volume reached 16,600 lots, open interest stood at 263,000 lots, a decrease of 3,509 lots from the previous trading day, manifested as bearish position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 105,490 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 105,700 yuan/mt right after the opening, then its price center fluctuated downward all the way, touching a low of 105,060 yuan/mt near the end of trading, and finally closed at 105,210 yuan/mt, down 0.14%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, open interest stood at 147,000 lots, a decrease of 1,715 lots from the previous trading day, manifested as bullish position reduction.

[Geopolitical easing combined with manufacturing slowdown exert dual suppression, SHFE and LME aluminum prices plunge significantly] SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will drop to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and may further approach 1.2 million mt by the end of June or early July, providing some support for aluminum prices. However, the pressure from high domestic inventory remains relatively evident, and coupled with the currently dominant bearish macro sentiment in the market, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly be in the doldrums with adjustments in the short term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at a low of $1,965/mt, fluctuating upward during Asian trading hours; entering the European session, it touched a high of $1,981/mt, then gave back some gains towards the close, eventually ending at $1,968.5/mt, up 0.08%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,240 yuan/mt, dipping to a session low of 16,210 yuan/mt early on before edging up to a high of 16,315 yuan/mt, finally settling at 16,265 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. On the macro front: The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to a 43-year low. Middle East situation – Trump: Will allow Iran to conduct low-level uranium enrichment. May or may not attend the agreement signing on the 19th. The strait will fully open on Friday. Importantly, oil prices have dropped sharply while the stock market is rising. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice to launch a three-year campaign to tackle energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries. SAFE: In May, foreign-invested enterprises' dividend and profit distribution expenditures increased seasonally, and foreign investors were net buyers of domestic stocks and bonds overall. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead reversed course and rebounded, with suppliers selling along with the market. Some offered wider discounts from last Friday, but some smelters, with low inventory, remained relatively firm in their pricing. Mainstream production region primary lead quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt, EXW. For secondary lead, smelters had divergent attitudes toward selling. Secondary refined lead quotations against SMM #1 lead were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 125 yuan/mt, EXW. Downstream enterprises mostly turned cautious, with fewer inquiries; some temporarily focused on digesting inventories, and spot market transactions weakened. Inventory: On June 15, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,025 mt to 304,850 mt; as of June 15, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 67,700 mt, an increase of 3,000 mt from June 8 and an increase of 2,300 mt from June 11. Lead price forecast today: Last week, lead prices declined, and downstream dip-buying demand warmed up. Affected by secondary lead smelters holding back from selling and their high quotes, purchasing demand shifted significantly to EXW primary lead cargoes. At present, Henan smelters are still shipping on order. Yesterday, the SHFE lead 2606 contract completed delivery, with suppliers shipping to delivery warehouses in a concentrated manner, and social inventory increased as expected. Currently, both primary and secondary lead enterprises face maintenance and raw material shortages, with supply tight and uncertain. SMM believes that after the delivery, lead ingot inventory buildup pressure will gradually ease, and upside resistance to lead prices is expected to weaken.

SMM June 16 News: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME tin led the gains with a 2.54% increase, while SHFE tin rose 1.52%. SHFE aluminum fell 1.8%, and LME aluminum dropped 4.52%, with the rest of the metals posting % changes within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 1.5%, and cast aluminum main contract declined 1.41%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally fell. Iron ore rose 0.39%, hot-rolled coil edged up 0.18%, and stainless steel gained 1.72%, while declines for the remaining metals were relatively small. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.7% and coke dipped 0.36%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 2.18% and COMEX silver jumped 3.07%. Domestically, SHFE gold gained 1.77% and SHFE silver climbed 2.49%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 AM on June 16: Macro Front Domestically: [NDRC and other departments: Launch a three-year action plan targeting energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades in key sectors] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments decided to organize and implement a three-year action plan targeting energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades in key sectors including steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power. It was mentioned that these key industries account for large-scale, high-intensity energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, making them the top priority for improving energy efficiency, reducing coal consumption, and lowering carbon emissions. Starting in 2026, the plan will focus on nine sectors—steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power—to fully implement energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades over three years, driving enterprises to elevate their energy and carbon efficiency levels as much as possible and significantly improve the industry's green, low-carbon development. Starting in 2028, the implementation scope is to be further expanded based on actual conditions, with additional sectors advanced progressively, and various regions can proceed in an orderly manner ahead of schedule in line with work needs. [PBOC's reverse repo delivers a net injection of 206.5 billion yuan today] The People's Bank of China conducted 425 billion yuan in seven-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 218.5 billion yuan in reverse repo matured. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index edged down 0.11% to 99.68. US asset manager PGIM holds a fringe view that the Fed will raise interest rates three times this year to cool an overheating economy, before reversing the hikes in 2027. The firm had forecast rate cuts this year as recently as April. PGIM stated the US economy is "exceptionally strong," and persistently sticky inflation requires a new approach. Given this backdrop, and with the Fed having missed its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects three rate hikes this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. "The rate hikes would be politically palatable for Warsh if they are characterized as 'preventive' measures to address supply-side inflation and the recent gyrations in long-term Treasuries," PGIM said. However, the firm noted it expects the Fed "to reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and one further cut in 2028, taking the terminal rate to 3.375%—below the current rate and likely close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said the oil price pullback following the US-Iran agreement announcement saw the Treasury market strengthen, easing pressure on the Fed to hike rates this year. "Even before the ceasefire deal, as oil prices were coming down, the two-year yield was still rising because markets were pricing in a near-100% probability of a December hike," Falconio said. "Now what's happening is oil prices are falling and markets are unwinding those rate-hike expectations. As a result, the two-year yield is starting to decline." New Fed Chairman Warsh will preside over his first interest rate decision this week. After the recent surge in crude oil prices reignited inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been growing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. However, she still believes the Fed's next move will be a cut, occurring in 2027. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% chance of cumulative 25bp of cuts. For July, the probability of holding rates unchanged is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 7.4%, and the probability of cumulative 25bp of cuts is 1.4%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data Front: Data to be released today include China's May total retail sales YoY, China's May value-added of industrial output above designated size YoY, the US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending May 30, US May annualized housing starts, US May building permits, US May import price index MoM, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision as of June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, and the Bank of Japan's target rate as of June 16. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology will convene a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 4.38% and Brent crude down 4.55%. The US and Iran simultaneously announced a ceasefire memorandum of understanding was reached, with Trump authorizing a "free and open" Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. As the Trump administration nears completion of its plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude oil supply has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy (DOE) on June 15, the US SPR, established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s, has dropped to a near-historic low of approximately 340 million barrels. (From Wallstreetcn APP) According to local news from Iran on the 16th, three oil tankers and two ships carrying essential Iranian goods have breached the US-imposed naval blockade. Separate reports indicated that multiple Iranian vessels successfully transited the blocked area. According to vessel-tracking data, an Iranian Very Large Crude Carrier was heading from international waters toward an Iranian port and had passed the blockade zone. A ship carrying livestock feed had also crossed the blockade and was en route to Iran. Additionally, another Iranian oil tanker fully loaded with crude has passed through the Gulf of Oman and the blockade line, heading to its export destination. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM News Flash: [Rebar] Today, export FOB prices for rebar rose slightly by about USD 2/tonne. According to market traders, inquiry activity was relatively decent, but actual transactions remained average. Some participants also noted that long steel demand in South America has been relatively stable recently, while demand in the Middle East remains weak. Regarding the US–Iran peace agreement, there has been no significant change in order flow so far, and overall market sentiment remains cautious and wait-and-see. [Billet] Today, export billet offers increased slightly by around USD 2/tonne, with prices at approximately USD 473–476/tonne FOB. Market feedback indicates that countries such as Indonesia and India are actively exporting billets, leading to intensified competition. However, domestic export price advantages are not obvious, as rising production costs are limiting steel mills’ willingness to discount, while traders are also more cautious in taking short positions. As a result, overall transaction activity remained moderate. [HRC] Today, export prices for flat steel products rose by USD 2/tonne day-on-day. Hot-rolled coil transaction prices were in the range of USD 497–506/tonne. Market inquiry activity was moderate, with no significant release of concluded deals. Recently, there have been some new inquiries for medium and heavy plate in the Middle East, with a portion of them resulting in transactions. [India] Ship-breaking scrap prices in the Alang (Gujarat) market increased by around 3 USD/tonne, with HMS (80:20) assessed at approximately 373 USD/tonne EXW. Semi-finished steel prices remained broadly stable, while finished steel saw a mild correction in the previous trading session. Market sentiment in Alang stayed subdued, as vessel arrivals remained at historically low levels. Strong freight economics continued to incentivize shipowners to extend the operating life of older vessels, limiting scrap inflows. In the near term, Alang scrap prices are expected to remain supported but constrained by tight supply conditions, with further movement largely dependent on vessel arrivals and downstream steel demand. [Thailand] Galvanizing quotes in the Thai market remained stable in the short term, with import offers still around 710 USD/tonne; however, for large-volume firm orders, the market could consider offering a discount of 5-10 USD/tonne. Wire rod quotes were also relatively stable, but some traders had to push up prices by 20 USD/tonne to 570 USD/tonne due to rising costs. In terms of local market transactions, downstream end-use demand was weak, and actual deals mostly shifted to a "negotiate deal by deal" model. It is expected that in the short term, Thai wire rod and galvanizing prices will hover at highs. Whether prices can subsequently stabilize on a solid footing will mainly depend on the release of downstream firm orders and the final bargaining and concession room offered by sellers under shipment pressure. [South Korea] Facing the approaching rainy season, South Korean builders are racing against time to push forward the final “intensive rush to meet deadlines” for foundation and main structure works, and the upward momentum of finished steel prices has slowed significantly. Today, POSCO’s two core steelworks (Pohang and Gwangyang) simultaneously raised the purchase price of high-quality pig iron scraps/premium steel scrap by 15,000 won/tonne (approximately 9.93 USD/tonne), and medium and light scrap by 10,000 won/tonne (approximately 6.62 USD/tonne), mainly to prevent domestic supply from being snapped up by other EAF steel mills before the off-season arrives. POSCO had no choice but to raise buying prices against the trend to “lock in” domestic spot cargo flows.

The global stainless steel market navigated a series of sharp sentiment. The opening weeks saw Indonesia's mill closures and price hikes push the cost narrative to its highest point of the year, before a combination of easing geopolitical tensions triggered the first price reduction since December 2025. The month's defining characteristic was similar to April's. What differentiated May was the sharply higher amplitude of both the policy signals and the emotional swings that accompanied them.

According to foreign media reports, in response to applications from Indian Aluminium Industries Limited (IAIL) and SRF Altech, among other companies, India has decided to extend the deadline for imposing anti-dumping duties on aluminum foil with a thickness of 80 micrometers or less imported from China, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia until December 15, 2026. On September 29, 2025, the Directorate General of Trade Remedies under the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry initiated sunset reviews of aluminum foil imports from China, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia.

On June 11, a delegation led by Boris Titov, Russian Chairman of the Russian-Chinese Committee for Friendship, Peace and Development, visited Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group. Wu Qunying, Party Secretary and Chairman of the Group, held talks with Titov and his delegation at the Group's headquarters, reaching a consensus on deepening trade and expanding cooperation in various business areas. Zhao Liming, member of the Group's Party Committee and Vice General Manager, also participated in the talks. Wu Qunying welcomed Titov and his delegation, noting that Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group had previously sent a delegation composed of relevant enterprises from the SCO Nonferrous Metals Joint Venture to Russia and other regions for economic and trade exchanges, achieving a series of fruitful results. He expressed hope that both sides would establish a regular cooperation mechanism in areas such as nonferrous metals, oil and gas, new energy, and import and export business, implementing "list-based management, milestone-based advancement, and responsibility-based implementation." He hoped that with the support of the Russian-Chinese Committee for Friendship, Peace and Development, negotiations would be accelerated to ensure the smooth delivery of trade orders, promoting deeper and more effective pragmatic cooperation in various fields across the Group's overseas operations, achieving a strong alliance and complementary advantages, and creating a new benchmark for in-depth Sino-Russian friendly cooperation.

[China Iron Ore Brief] This week, the EXW price of 64% grade alkaline concentrates on a dry basis, before tax, from Shandong miners was reported at 836, down 11, with steel mills cutting prices in line. Miners mostly maintained normal production, but some saw inventory buildup, mainly influenced by fewer transport vehicles and the higher cost-effectiveness of imported ore, resulting in overall sluggish sales. On the steel mill side, profit margins narrowed significantly, leading to a stronger desire to bargain down prices, with procurement of domestic iron ore largely need-based. Considering that iron ore futures fluctuated and strengthened today, this is likely to boost local iron ore concentrate prices.