This week, SMM headed to various copper scrap yards in Zhenhai, Ningbo for field visits. Since the implementation of reverse invoicing this year, many scrap utilization enterprises have been unable to carry out reverse invoicing on a large scale, forcing them to increase their procurement volume of imported copper scrap

According to data from ChinaIOL, the production schedule for household air conditioners in August 2026 was 10.73 million units, down 16.7% compared to the same period last year, with the decline widening MoM. In contrast, the production schedules for refrigerators and washing machines were relatively stable, at 8.77 million and 8.83 million units, respectively, representing slight increases of 0.7% and 2.3% compared to the same period last year. As a key downstream application field of aluminum foil, the demand for air-conditioner foil was significantly impacted by the ongoing decline in air conditioner production schedules.

[SMM Analysis: Visit to Ningbo Zhenhai Copper Scrap Yard — High-Grade Copper Scrap in Short Supply, #2 Copper Semis Dominate] This week, SMM headed to major copper scrap yards in Ningbo's Zhenhai district for a visit. Since the beginning of this year, due to the implementation of "reverse invoicing" in the copper scrap industry, many scrap utilization enterprises were unable to carry out large-scale "reverse invoicing" and had to increase their procurement volume of imported copper scrap. Based on the visit, inventory of copper scrap at major yards was not ample. As demand for copper scrap outside China continued to grow, yard managers also indicated that imports of copper scrap were expected to decline in the future...

According to SMM's observations, since July, copper cathode prices have risen from 103,000 yuan/mt to 108,600 yuan/mt, an increase of over 6,400 yuan/mt, but the price of domestic bare bright copper wire (excluding tax) only rose from 90,000 yuan/mt to 91,700 yuan/mt, an increase of less than 1,800 yuan/mt

Zijin Mining (601899) disclosed its semi-annual report. In H1 2026, the company achieved operating revenue of 194.178 billion yuan, up 15.78% YoY; net profit attributable to equity holders reached 39.17 billion yuan, up 68.17% YoY; basic earnings per share was 1.434 yuan. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.2 yuan (pre-tax) for every 10 shares.During the reporting period, the company's main mineral products production was stable with steady growth. Gold production increased 13% YoY, and copper production (excluding the impact of Kamoa) increased 5% YoY. The lithium segment, the "third growth pole, " has achieved scale contributions, with lithium carbonate equivalent production increasing substantially YoY. The capacity for rare and precious strategic metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and tin has been released accordingly, and the comprehensive utilization of sulphur resources, including sulphur concentrates and sulphuric acid, has yielded significant benefits, becoming a new profit growth highlight.

SMM August 21 News: This week, spot prices along the cobalt industry chain largely remained in the doldrums. Refined cobalt prices continued to grind lower under the influence of weak market sentiment and demand. Although import data fell short of expectations, the rebound was limited. On the cobalt salt side, cobalt sulphate prices declined for five consecutive trading days, with cost support clearly shifting downward. Quotes for primary and recycled materials continued to ease, and downstream enterprises showed a strong desire to bargain down prices. The cobalt chloride and Co3O4 markets continued their sluggish pattern... SMM compiled the price movements of cobalt products this week, as follows: side: According to SMM spot quotes, refined cobalt spot prices fell notably this week. As of August 21, refined cobalt spot prices temporarily stabilized at 300,000-310,000 yuan/mt, with the average price at 305,000 yuan/mt, down 21,500 yuan/mt from 326,500 yuan/mt on August 14, a decline of 6.58%. 》View SMM cobalt-lithium spot quotes According to SMM, the refined cobalt futures continued to grind lower this week, with the spot price center further declining. On the supply side, mid-week, affected by market expectations before the release of customs data, some funds pre-traded a significant increase in China's cobalt intermediate product imports, causing a relatively large pullback in futures. Although the final imports were lower than market forecasts, leading to a slight rebound in prices, the rebound was very limited due to the current weak demand, and prices remained at low levels. After the rapid price decline, most smelters and traders have suspended external quotes, and the market is in a wait-and-see sentiment. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are still in the summer break period, with weak purchase willingness and only maintaining small-volume restocking for essential needs. Market transaction sentiment was generally sluggish. In the short term, SMM believes that the market is still in the off-season, demand support is limited, coupled with weak market sentiment, refined cobalt prices may continue to consolidate at lows. Future attention should be paid to changes in downstream restocking pace after the summer break. Cobalt intermediate product prices side: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate product spot quotes remained stable this week. As of August 21, cobalt intermediate product (CIF China) spot quotes temporarily stabilized at $21-22/lb, with the average price at $21.5/lb. According to SMM, the cobalt intermediate product market remained in a stalemate this week, with prices lacking transaction guidance. July customs data showed that China's cobalt intermediate product imports were 16,100 mt in physical content (about 5,000 mt in metal content), slightly below market expectations, but had limited impact on the current supply-demand pattern. Miners' tender intentions remain at $21-22/lb, while downstream psychological price levels have pulled back to $17-19/lb, with no narrowing of the price spread, and tenders continue to be unsuccessful. Some miners started adjusting strategies, considering suspending direct sales and switching to toll processing to produce refined cobalt for sale. In the short term, the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continues. SMM expects that stabilization of cobalt intermediate product prices still awaits substantial transactions. Cobalt salt side ( and ): : According to SMM spot price quotes, spot cobalt sulphate prices also could not escape the decline this week. After falling for five consecutive trading days, spot cobalt sulphate prices fell to 72,000-75,000 yuan/mt, with the average price at 73,500 yuan/mt, down 5,000 yuan/mt from 78,500 yuan/mt on August 14, a drop of 6.37%. In the spot market, according to SMM, the cobalt sulphate market continued in the doldrums this week, with cost support further moving down, and the psychological price spread between buyers and sellers not narrowing. Supply side quotations remained divergent: primary smelters, constrained by earlier high-priced raw material inventory, maintained quotations at 75,000-80,000 yuan/mt, but the MHP cobalt coefficient has recently pulled back to around 73% discount, and the immediate production cost has dropped to about 70,000 yuan/mt, significantly weakening cost support. Some enterprises may consider selling at a discount above 70,000 yuan/mt in the future. For recycling materials, mainstream quotations were at around 93-95% of SMM low-end prices. Some enterprises with financial constraints further lowered prices to 68,000-70,000 yuan/mt, and individual low-quality cargoes were heard at around 65,000 yuan/mt. Demand side remained sluggish. Cobalt tetroxide enterprises reduced their indicative prices for low-nickel cobalt sulphate to 68,000-70,000 yuan/mt, some ternary precursor enterprises pressed indicative prices for medium-high nickel cobalt sulphate to around 65,000 yuan/mt, but the actual price spread between buyers and sellers remained large, and transactions remained limited. In the short term, SMM believes that the cobalt sulphate market is still in a bottom-seeking phase, and price stabilization still awaits the release of downstream concentrated restocking demand. side: According to SMM spot price quotes, spot cobalt chloride prices remained stable this week. As of August 21, spot cobalt chloride prices held steady at 87,000-91,000 yuan/mt, with the average price at 89,000 yuan/mt, maintaining stable operation compared to August 14. In the spot market, according to SMM, the cobalt chloride market continued its sluggish pattern this week, with actual transactions showing little improvement. On the supply side, to alleviate cash flow constraints and loss reduction pressure, some enterprises have slightly softened their offer prices to seek destocking, but downstream purchasing sentiment was weak, and the transaction growth driven by price cuts was extremely limited. Demand side, Co3O4 enterprises remained constrained by high inventory, and with no signs of recovery in end-use consumption, the procurement pace remained stagnant. In the short term, SMM expects cobalt chloride prices to continue to drift lower. side: According to SMM spot quotations, after declining in the week before last, Co3O4 spot quotes stabilized this week. As of August 21, Co3O4 spot quotes were tentatively stable at 275,000-300,000 yuan/mt, with the average price at 287,500 yuan/mt, flat from August 14. In the spot market, according to SMM, the Co3O4 market sentiment remained sluggish this week, with sporadic transactions. On the supply side, most smelters continued low-load operations under the conditions of high inventory, thin margins, and lingering concerns over inventory buildup. On the demand side, although cathode material producers made sporadic inquiries, firm orders were scarce. Existing raw material inventory was moderate enough to meet short-term production, and there was no urgency to restock. On balance, SMM expects that the broad trend of Co3O4 prices under pressure to weaken in the short term is unlikely to change. On the news front, This week, cobalt product import and export data were released. According to customs data, China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate product imports in July 2026 were approximately 16,174 mt in physical content, up 48% MoM and up 17% YoY. Among them, imports from DRC were approximately 15,970 mt in physical content, up 48% MoM and up 21% YoY. The average import price of China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in July 2026 was $17,915/mt in physical content, up 9.56% MoM. This month, about 10,046 mt in physical content of intermediate products imported from DRC entered Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces via Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area, accounting for 62.9% of total imports; Ordinary Trade accounted for about 4,243 mt, or 26.6%; processing trade with imported materials accounted for about 1,681 mt, or 10.5%. In addition, China imported a total of 204 mt in physical content of intermediate products from Russia and Zambia via Ordinary Trade this month.

The overseas secondary aluminum market remained under pressure this week as the continued pullback in LME aluminum gradually filtered through to Southeast Asian scrap and ADC12 prices. Most scrap grades in Malaysia and Thailand moved lower, although some premium-grade materials remained relatively resilient due to tight availability. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian ADC12 prices continued to soften amid sluggish automotive and die-casting demand. Rising energy costs in Thailand, however, are providing some support to producers’ cost bases, leaving the market caught between weak downstream demand and elevated production costs. Southeast Asia Scrap Aluminum Prices Fall, but Premium Grades Remain Resilient Southeast Asian aluminum scrap prices generally moved lower this week. In Malaysia, Talon averaged MYR 13,250/mt (approximately $3,280/mt) , down 3.64% week-on-week. Tense fell to $2,650/mt , down 4.50% WoW. In contrast, used beverage cans (UBC) edged higher to MYR 10,125/mt (approximately $2,507/mt) , up 0.75% WoW. In Thailand, Talon declined to THB 109,000/mt (approximately $3,335/mt) , down 1.36% WoW, while UBC fell to THB 82,000/mt (approximately $2,510/mt) , down 2.38% WoW. As LME aluminum continued to retreat from its recent highs, buyers lowered their target prices and became increasingly cautious about restocking. Some scrap grades that had previously resisted the decline began to catch up with the broader market, with Malaysian Tense recording the largest weekly decline among the assessed grades. However, the performance of Malaysian UBC highlights the continued divergence between different scrap categories. Premium-grade scrap remains relatively tight, particularly UBC and 6063 extrusion scrap, limiting suppliers’ willingness to make aggressive price concessions. As a result, the decline in LME aluminum is increasingly being transmitted to the scrap market, but premium-grade scrap continues to show greater price resilience than ordinary mixed scrap. Southeast Asia ADC12 Prices Edge Lower as Demand Remains Weak The Southeast Asian ADC12 market remained soft this week, with prices declining in both Malaysia and Thailand. Malaysia’s domestic ADC12 price fell to MYR 12.45/kg (approximately $3,082/mt) , down 0.40% WoW, while FOB Port Klang prices declined to $3,090/mt , down 0.48%. In Thailand, domestic ADC12 prices fell to THB 102.5/kg (approximately $3,137/mt) , down 0.97% WoW. FOB Laem Chabang prices slipped to around $3,070/mt , down 0.16%. According to SMM’s recent discussions with Thai producers, export offers are currently concentrated at around $3,050–3,090/mt . Some producers have lowered their offers following the decline in LME aluminum, although overall adjustments remain relatively cautious. Demand remains the primary source of pressure. Southeast Asia is still in the traditional seasonal lull, with automotive and die-casting orders recovering slowly. Downstream buyers continue to purchase largely on a hand-to-mouth basis, with little indication of aggressive restocking. At the same time, production costs remain elevated. Market participants in Thailand reported that natural gas prices have recently risen significantly, with some producers indicating increases of around 40–50% . Higher energy costs are increasing secondary aluminum production costs and limiting producers’ ability to aggressively cut ADC12 prices even as LME and some scrap prices decline. The ADC12 market therefore remains caught between downstream pressure for lower prices and production costs providing a floor . Low-Priced Alloy Ingot Supply Adds Pressure to Asian Market Another development attracting market attention is the increasing availability of competitively priced casting alloy ingots from Africa, Vietnam and other regions. According to SMM’s recent market discussions, some African-origin ADC12 or similar casting alloy ingots have been indicated at around $2,850/mt , significantly below mainstream Southeast Asian ADC12 offers of approximately $3,050–3,090/mt. Against the backdrop of falling LME aluminum prices and weak downstream demand, these lower-priced materials are influencing buyers’ price expectations and providing additional bargaining leverage when negotiating with Southeast Asian suppliers. However, price is not the only consideration. Feedback from market participants suggests that some low-priced imported alloy ingots have shown greater variation in chemical composition and inconsistent quality , limiting their suitability for customers with stricter production requirements. For automotive components and die-casting applications, where alloy consistency is particularly important, buyers continue to consider product quality, stable supply and long-term reliability alongside price. The Asian ADC12 market is therefore showing increasing price and quality segmentation , with lower-priced material pressuring market sentiment while higher-quality, specification-consistent ADC12 retains some premium. LME Aluminum Falls Further as Supply Risk Premium Unwinds LME aluminum continued to decline this week. From August 17 to August 20, LME cash aluminum fell from around $3,272/mt to $3,182/mt , a cumulative decline of approximately $90/mt . One factor behind the decline is the continued unwinding of the supply risk premium associated with disruptions in the Middle East. Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter continues to restart production. Around 18% of the smelter’s pots have resumed operations , while all three potlines have been re-energised. Production is expected to return to pre-disruption hot-metal levels in the first quarter of 2027. As the restart path becomes clearer, market concerns over a prolonged disruption to Gulf aluminum supply have eased. Alternative logistics routes have also allowed some material and raw-material flows to continue, while increased aluminum exports from China, Indonesia and other Asian suppliers are helping offset part of the disruption to Gulf supply. Meanwhile, signs of easing spot tightness have emerged. The LME cash-to-three-month spread has moved from backwardation toward a slight contango, suggesting that concerns over immediate physical availability have eased at the margin. More importantly, however, downstream demand has failed to keep pace with the earlier rally in aluminum prices . SMM’s recent discussions with market participants indicate that buyers generally did not chase prices higher during the previous rally. Once LME began to decline, purchasing targets were quickly revised downward. This helps explain a view increasingly expressed by market participants that prices have recently been “falling faster than they rise.” Supply Risks Ease, but the Market Has Not Shifted Into Oversupply Despite the recent decline in LME aluminum, the global primary aluminum market should not yet be interpreted as having shifted decisively from tightness into oversupply. Only around 18% of Al Taweelah’s pots have restarted, while a full recovery to pre-disruption production levels is not expected until the first quarter of 2027. Other overseas restart and new capacity projects are also progressing, but the pace of actual supply recovery has yet to accelerate significantly. Some projects continue to ramp up more slowly than previously expected. Inventories also remain supportive. LME aluminum inventories are currently around 247,000 mt , remaining at relatively low levels. The recent LME decline therefore appears to reflect a combination of the unwinding of extreme supply risk premiums, easing near-term spot tightness and renewed focus on weak demand , rather than a fundamental shift toward substantial global primary aluminum oversupply. Low inventories and the gradual pace of overseas supply recovery continue to provide downside support. Outlook SMM expects the overseas secondary aluminum market to remain soft and range-bound in the near term, with increasing divergence between different products and grades . For aluminum scrap, further weakness in LME prices could continue to pressure Tense, Talon and other conventional scrap grades. However, premium materials such as UBC and 6063 extrusion scrap remain relatively tight, which should allow them to maintain stronger price resilience. If LME declines faster than premium scrap prices, their price-to-LME ratios could remain elevated or even rise temporarily. For ADC12, weak downstream demand remains the key constraint. Buyers are becoming increasingly aggressive in negotiations as LME declines, but rising energy costs in Thailand and relatively firm premium-grade scrap prices are limiting producers’ room for substantial further reductions. Lower-priced alloy ingots from Africa, Russia and other origins will also require close attention. If offers around $2,850/mt become more widely available, they could further pressure Asian buyers’ price expectations. However, differences in quality and chemical consistency mean that their impact on mainstream high-quality ADC12 could remain uneven. For LME aluminum, further unwinding of the Middle East supply risk premium may continue to limit upside potential. Nevertheless, EGA’s recovery remains incomplete, other overseas supply has yet to accelerate significantly, and inventories remain low, leaving fundamental support on the downside. Overall, the market’s key question is increasingly shifting from “Will supply be disrupted?” to “Can real demand absorb supply as production gradually recovers?” Going forward, market participants should closely monitor LME price and inventory structures, the actual pace of EGA and other overseas restarts, Thai natural gas and production costs, Southeast Asian UBC and 6063 scrap availability, flows of lower-priced African and Russian alloy ingots, and the recovery of automotive and die-casting orders across Asia .

At 13:00 on August 20 Peru time, a 7.2-magnitude earthquake struck the Ayacucho region in southern Peru, with the epicenter located about 35 km north of Coracora and a focal depth of 108 km. According to SMM, the earthquake has not yet affected major mining areas in Peru, and its overall impact on Peru's copper ore supply is limited.

SMM August 21 news: According to SMM customs data, July refined lead exports were 2,178 mt, down 47.81% MoM and up 21.37% YoY; lead alloy exports were 599 mt, down 32.72% MoM and down 66.88% YoY; and other lead products exports were 36 mt, down 41.22% MoM and up 51.77% YoY. Exports of all lead and lead product categories generally weakened MoM. On the import side, July refined lead imports were 9,215 mt, down 38.95% MoM but up 169.69% YoY; lead alloy imports were 26,495 mt, up 15.24% MoM and up 107.25% YoY, with import volumes staying high; and lead sheet and other lead product imports were only 112 mt. After the peak arrival of imports in June, the import premium for refined lead notably faded in July. The SHFE-LME arbitrage window narrowed, and China faced pressure to digest previously arrived inventory. Lead alloy imports showed stronger resilience, while other lead product imports shrank significantly. In July, China's lead prices first declined and then rebounded. In early to mid-month, LME lead inventory climbed sharply to near a 14-year high, dragging the most-traded SHFE lead contract down to around 15,500 yuan/mt, a more than two-year low. Overseas lead ingot suppliers were reluctant to sell at concessionary prices, holding back from selling. Looking ahead to August, the market sees a tug-of-war between longs and shorts and prices consolidate. On the supply side, maintenance at primary lead enterprises increases in mid-to-late month, tightening supply. Although losses in secondary lead have somewhat recovered, the MoM impact on refined lead production schedules remains at -22,300 mt. Overall supply stays low, and partial production resumptions cannot reverse the supply pattern. On the demand side, the traditional peak season for lead-acid batteries has fallen short of expectations. After the summer holiday, downstream is mainly restocking for essential needs, with limited stockpiling demand. Social inventory of lead ingots has risen to 75,000-79,000 mt, putting periodic pressure on prices. SMM expects the most-traded SHFE lead contract to generally trade in a range of 15,500-16,200 yuan/mt. The implementation of maintenance at primary lead enterprises in mid-to-late month is expected to lift prices after a decline, but consumption will constrain upside room. Overall, the lead price performance in August is expected to be better than in July, with the inclination for overseas lead ingot inflows to China improving MoM.

SMM expects the most-traded SHFE lead contract to mainly trade in the range of 15,500-16,200 yuan/mt, and the implementation of maintenance at primary lead enterprises in mid-to-late August is expected to drive prices to bottom out and rebound, but consumption will cap upside room. Overall, lead price performance in August is better than in July, and the willingness of overseas lead ingot inflows into China is improving MoM.