[SMM HRC Daily Trading] On July 22, the combined daily trading volume of hot-rolled coil from sample enterprises in SMM’s four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) was 12,270 mt, a day-on-day increase of 270 mt (+2.3%), a YoY decline of 27.14% on the Gregorian calendar, and a YoY decline of 12.98% on the lunar calendar.

[EU] European hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers maintained their upward momentum this week as domestic steelmakers successfully realized earlier price hikes in actual transactions, pushing mainstream quotes up to 815–820 USD/tonne EXW. Domestic mills have largely filled their September order books, with a mainstream producer recently concluding several forward-delivery contracts in succession. Supported by this, some mills are adopting a wait-and-see approach or withholding offers to prepare for further price increases on October production. On the import front, quotes in Antwerp held steady at 800–820 USD/tonne DDP. Although end-users continue to complain about sluggish consumption and elevated inventory levels, domestic mills maintain a steadfast posture, refusing to grant price concessions. Backed by ample order backlogs as the traditional August summer maintenance period approaches, steelmakers remain confident about post-holiday demand recovery.

Hot-rolled coil inventories at Zhangjiagang Port were 278,000 mt, down 2,000 mt, or 0.71%, WoW, while up 22.47% YoY on a calendar year basis.

SMM July 22 news: In the metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 1.69%, SHFE aluminum added 0.56%, SHFE lead fell 0.95%, SHFE zinc rose 0.55%, SHFE tin gained 1.02%. SHFE nickel climbed 0.77%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.22%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.5%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel added 0.2%, iron ore fell 0.13%, and rebar and hot-rolled coil both rose within 0.2%. As for coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.84%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.52%. In the overnight overseas metals market, LME base metals nearly all rose. LME copper climbed 1.91%, LME aluminum added 0.81%, LME lead fell 0.48%, LME zinc rose 0.94%, LME tin jumped 1.53%, and LME nickel gained 1.12%. In overnight precious metals, : COMEX gold rose 1.65%, COMEX silver surged 3.5%. The most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract climbed 3.01%. As of 7:07 on July 22, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic market: [State Administration for Market Regulation: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots] The State Administration for Market Regulation held a press conference on July 21 to introduce the achievements of China’s testing and inspection service industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will implement a three-year action to promote industrial optimization and upgrading and quality improvement of national quality inspection centers through innovative pilot programs, proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots, and drive service model innovation through digital transformation. It will strengthen deep collaboration with industry chain leaders and research institutes, jointly overcome a number of key core technologies, promote the upgrading of testing and inspection from single services to “industry chain synergy,” and transform the role from a “post-event quality gatekeeper” to an “innovation enabler throughout the whole process.” It will coordinate the building of testing capabilities for green and low-carbon development, food safety, and high-risk industrial products, and reinforce the quality defense line for industrial development and public safety. (Jin10 Data App) [Southwest China Adds Large-Scale Hydrogen Source Base] News from CIMC Group: the integrated steel and coke clean energy project in Liupanshui, Guizhou Province, has been officially commissioned and achieved stable operation, becoming a key hydrogen supply node on the “Chongqing-Guizhou-Guangxi” hydrogen corridor. The project commissioned this time is currently the leading industrial tail-gas-to-hydrogen and resource-utilization demonstration project in south-west China. Leveraging surplus local coke oven coal gas resources from the steel industry, the project uses independently developed full-chain process technology to complete component separation, converting industrial tail gas that was originally used for combustion power generation into high-value clean energy. It can produce 24 million m³ per year of 99.999% fuel cell, battery-grade high-purity hydrogen and approximately 140,000 mt of liquefied natural gas, achieving efficient on-site resource conversion. (CCTV News) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.21. Rising oil prices put pressure on the rates market, and the market’s assessment of the likelihood of US Fed rate hikes in July and September both increased today. Christopher Hodge, Natixis’ Chief US Economist, believed that energy price fluctuations should drive US Fed decision-making. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged in July was 74.9%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 25.1%. The probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged by September was 28.9%, the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 55.7%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 50 basis points was 15.4%. (Jinshi Data APP) In addition, according to a Reuters poll: 78 of 104 economists (78 of 102 in last month’s poll) expected the US Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% throughout 2026. On the macro front: Today, data including the UK June CPI m/m and the UK June Retail Price Index m/m were due to be released. Crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures rose, with WTI up 2.5% and Brent up 2.71%. The US-Iran military conflict entered its 10th day, and the Houthi armed group announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, with traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea plunging 34% within two weeks. (Wallstreetcn) Data: US crude oil inventory increased last week. For the week ended July 17, API crude oil inventory was 2.603 million barrels (expectations: -500,000; previous: -564,000). For the week ended July 17, API gasoline inventory was -1.379 million barrels (expectations: -1.81 million; previous: -1.664 million). In addition, Iraq’s oil minister said that during the Iraqi prime minister’s visit to the US, the total value of agreements expected to be signed between Iraq’s Ministry of Oil and US enterprises would reach $200 billion. In a statement, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said that the recent escalation of hostile actions against energy infrastructure in and around the Strait of Hormuz had heightened concerns over global energy supply security and increased uncertainty about the market outlook. The threats facing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key passage bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, have further intensified these concerns. However, he noted that the crude oil market is currently supported by several buffering factors. Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are maintaining supply through alternative shipping routes, and some crude continues to be exported via the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA estimates that crude exports from the Gulf region, while below the end-June high, remain significantly above the levels from March to mid-June. Additionally, increased exports from producers including the US, Brazil, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan have partially offset supply losses from the Gulf. China’s nearly 50% reduction in crude oil imports has also helped stabilize the market. The IEA stated that since the announcement of the release of 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves on March 11, member countries have released about 290 million barrels into the market, and the ongoing release of emergency inventories is providing support to the market. (Jinshi Data App) Due to the contract rollover, NYMEX crude oil August futures will see floor trading conclude at 2:30 a.m. on July 22, and electronic trading end at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Additionally, some trading platforms' US oil contracts typically expire one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiration, so please take extra care. Recommended Reading:

July 21, SMM Steel – According to SMM statistics, total estimated shipments of mainstream market resources this week were 246,200 mt, down 0.57% WoW. Breakdown by markets: Table 1: Mainstream Market Arrival Comparison Data source: SMM Steel Shanghai Market: Hot-rolled coil shipments in the Shanghai market declined WoW this week. Specifically, shipments from the Northeast market rebounded WoW, related on one hand to the receding impact of typhoons, and on the other hand to weakening demand in the north, with some steel mills adjusting their shipping pace; shipments from South China steel mills decreased. Looking ahead, north-south shipments may move sideways based on this week's levels, with limited room for change in Shanghai's mainstream resource arrivals. Chart 1: Shanghai Market Arrivals Data source: SMM Steel Lecong Market: Shipments to Lecong saw a significant increase this week. Specifically, North China resources remained stable, while of the two mainstream resources, one increased and the other decreased. Among them, WG's resources previously affected by typhoons arrived at ports successively, driving a notable increase in overall arrivals. Looking ahead, with previously backlogged cargoes arriving at ports, the concentrated arrivals are expected to ease subsequently, so next week's arrivals will likely decline. Chart 2: Lecong Market Arrivals Data source: SMM Steel SMM publishes hot-rolled shipments data for mainstream markets every Tuesday. To subscribe or follow more data, please scan the QR code below.

On July 21, the total daily trading volume of hot-rolled coil among sample enterprises in SMM's four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, and Ningbo) was 12,000 mt, up 340 mt (+2.8%) day-over-day, down 7.98% YoY on a Gregorian calendar basis, and down 10.98% YoY on a lunar calendar basis.

[Sheets & Plates] Today's hot-rolled coil and other sheets & plates export prices remained stable day-on-day, with HRC transaction prices at $486-491/mt. Some deep-processing products reported that market inquiries improved recently compared with the previous period, but carbon steel products have not yet shown significant changes.

[EU] EU hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices maintained a firm footing, edging up to 805–810 USD/tonne EXW. Although actual trading activity remains generally sluggish, domestic mills maintain a staunch pricing stance. Among them, Northern European integrated mills concluded select transactions at 825–835 USD/tonne delivered, with order books stretching into September and October. On the import front, Turkish HRC offers to the EU held steady at 675–680 USD/tonne CFR (duty-inclusive).

NLMK Group is a top-20 global and the No.1 Russian steelmaker. Its 2025 annual report tells a defensive one built on vertical integration and rock-bottom costs — holding volumes and liquidity under the combined squeeze of shrinking demand, record Chinese exports and a stronger rouble, while keeping decarbonization options open through a roadmap that reaches to 2050.

SMM, July 21 – Metal market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market rose broadly. SHFE tin rose 0.77%. SHFE copper rose 0.99%, while SHFE aluminum fell 0.34%. SHFE zinc rose 0.27%. SHFE lead edged down, and SHFE nickel edged up. Additionally, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract fell 0.3%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.78%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 4.45%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.36%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.22%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 1.39%, while rebar and hot-rolled coil fell 0.84% and 0.73% respectively. Stainless steel rose 0.48%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.58%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.76%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:44, LME metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.14%, LME aluminum rose 0.51%, and LME lead rose 0.45%. LME zinc and LME tin rose 0.6% and 0.35% respectively. LME nickel rose 0.59%. Precious metals, as of 11:44, COMEX gold rose 0.83%, and COMEX silver rose 1.61%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.03%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.27%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 1.03%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 1.53%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European route shipping contract fell 0.73% to 2,792 points. As of 11:44 on July 21, midday futures market conditions: Spot and fundamentals Silver: US-Iran ceasefire negotiations showed a turning point; silver saw a technical rebound but lacked substantial positive catalysts, with limited rebound strength. The spot market experienced weak supply and demand, deals were near parity, and wait-and-see sentiment was strong... Macro front China: [Ministry of Transport: 15th Five-Year Plan period to focus on promoting low-carbon substitution in transport power and advancing green transformation of transport infrastructure] Cai Tuanjie, Director-General of the Safety Supervision Department and concurrently head of the Transport Services Department of the Ministry of Transport, stated at a State Council Information Office press conference that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the country will vigorously promote low-carbon substitution of transport power, advance the green transformation of transport infrastructure, accelerate the optimization and adjustment of the transport structure, continue to deepen pollution prevention and control efforts, improve the carbon emission statistics, accounting, and monitoring system for transportation, and with greater efforts drive the green and low-carbon transformation in the transport sector, laying a solid foundation for building a strong transport country and a beautiful China. (Jin10 Data APP) [China to Allocate 22 Billion Yuan to Support Retirement and Renewal of Old Operating Trucks] On July 21, Cai Tuanjie, Chief Safety Officer and Director-General of the Department of Transport Services at the Ministry of Transport, said at a State Council Information Office press conference that China will continue to implement the campaign for the retirement and renewal of old operating trucks in 2026, allocating 22 billion yuan from ultra-long special government bonds to support this effort, with a focus on replacing them with new energy heavy-duty trucks, and to step up efforts to boost consumption in the new energy heavy-duty truck market through the program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins. (Xinhua News Agency) [China to Build Over 3,000 Charging and Battery Swapping Stations for Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks] On July 21, Cai Tuanjie, Chief Safety Officer and Director-General of the Department of Transport Services at the Ministry of Transport, said at a State Council Information Office press conference that, with a focus on busy freight sections of national expressways and regular national and provincial highways, city clusters and metropolitan areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and the Chengdu-Chongqing region, as well as key nodes like freight hubs, ports, mining areas, factory zones and industrial parks, China plans to build over 3,000 charging and battery swapping stations for electric heavy-duty trucks, advancing the networking of energy replenishment facilities by connecting points to form lines and networks. (Xinhua News Agency) [PBOC Achieves Net Injection of 16.5 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations Today] The PBOC conducted 253 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 236.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net injection of 16.5 billion yuan for the day. On the dollar side: As of 11:44, the US dollar index was flat at 100.97. "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos: Based on estimates that convert PPI and CPI data into PCE terms, U.S. core PCE for June is expected to rise mildly by 0.18% (up 3.3% YoY), which would mark the lowest monthly increase since November last year. The overall PCE for June is expected to decline 0.07%, bringing the 12-month YoY increase down to 3.7%. According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 84.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 15.5%. The probability of unchanged rates by the September meeting is 36%, that of a cumulative 25bp hike is 55.1%, and that of a cumulative 50bp hike is 8.9%. On other currencies: A forex strategist at Commerzbank said that, given escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising energy prices, the euro should benefit if the European Central Bank strongly signals its willingness to raise rates further. The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged this week but to hike again in September. If the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates further, how clearly the ECB signals its readiness to continue raising rates beyond September will be a decisive factor in limiting downside room for EUR/USD. Mitsubishi UFJ strategists noted that a consecutive rate hike by the European Central Bank this week was highly unlikely, with even hawkish officials such as Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel indicating a preference for holding rates steady. The continued rebound in energy prices supports expectations for a further 25bp hike in September. Eurozone interest rate markets have almost fully priced in two more ECB rate hikes by year-end, pushing short-term rates back near their highs for the year. Softer US inflation data has weakened the impact of rising energy prices on expectations for US Fed interest rate tightening, shifting the price spread in favor of the euro. (Jin10 Data APP) Data-wise: On the day, data including Switzerland's June trade balance, the UK's May ILO unemployment rate for the three months to May, UK June public sector net borrowing, UK June unemployment rate, UK June claimant count change, Germany's July ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index, and the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending July 4 are due for release. Crude Oil: As of 11:44, both oil benchmarks traded lower, with WTI down 0.34% and Brent down 0.68%. Market hopes for US-Iran conflict negotiations weighed on oil prices. Despite a pullback on Tuesday, Middle East tensions remained a potential market disruption. Threats from Houthi forces to blockade Red Sea export routes kept the market focused on whether Saudi Arabian exports would be impacted. BlackRock strategists believe there is currently no evidence that an escalation in the Middle East would cause a severe enough shock to economic growth to alter the market's risk appetite stance. (Wall Street CN) Spot Market Roundup: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►