Metinvest is seeking a new financial or industrial partner for its €3.2 billion green steel mill project in Piombino, Italy, developed by its joint venture Metinvest Adria, to reduce financial exposure and improve bankability amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The electric arc furnace (EAF) facility is designed to have an annual production capacity of over 2.7 million metric tons of hot rolled coils (HRC). The project has already secured significant institutional backing, including €285 million in incentives from Invitalia and an additional €92 million from the Italian Ministry of Enterprises for port infrastructure. The potential entry of a new investor is intended to strengthen the project's risk profile, ensuring the successful execution of one of Europe's largest low-emission steel production facilities without altering the original industrial scope.

[SMM Daily HRC Trading] On July 6, the total daily trading volume of hot rolled coils from sample enterprises in SMM’s four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) was 12,920 mt, up 1,370 mt or 12.3% DoD, -22.59% calendar YoY, and +22.70% lunar YoY.

In yesterday's [SMM Analysis] EU Steel Tariff Wall Doubles to 50%: Reconstructing the New Quota System & In-Depth Analysis of 1A HRC, SMM deeply analyzed the brutal allocation logic of the EU's new 18.35 million tonnes quota. When the "50% tariff wall" and the "melting and pouring" rules completely block traditional tax-free export paths, the global steel supply chain is undergoing a forced reshuffle. Today, we shift our perspective to the ripple effects and macro-level forecasts of this storm.

On 1 July 2026, the EU replaced the steel safeguard measures implemented since 2018 with a significantly stricter import quota system—this is not merely a continuation of the old policy, but a complete reconstruction of its underlying logic: the core objective has upgraded from "preventing trade diversion" to "targeted defense against high carbon and excess capacity."

This week, large-sample Ningbo HRC inventory was 332,000 mt, down 4,000 mt or 1.10% WoW, and up 17.07% YoY on a lunar calendar basis.

On June 12, the combined sample enterprise hot rolled coil daily trading volume for SMM's four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) totaled 14,660 mt, up 1,440 mt, or 10.1%, day-on-day, and up 35.74% YoY on a solar calendar basis and 9.40% YoY on a lunar calendar basis.

[SMM Hot Rolled Coil Daily Transactions] On June 11, the total daily trading volume of hot-rolled coils among sample enterprises in SMM's four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) totaled 13,220 mt, down 1,030 mt day-on-day, or -7.9%, Gregorian YoY +0.92%, and lunar YoY -6.31%.

[SMM Hot Rolled Coil Daily Trading Volume] On June 8, the total daily trading volume of hot rolled coils among sample enterprises in SMM's four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) was 12,580 mt, down 980 mt, or 7.6% from the previous day, up 6.98% YoY on a solar calendar basis, and up 7.80% YoY on a lunar calendar basis.

This week, cold-rolled and hot-rolled prices weakened, with overall transactions turning weaker WoW. Supply side, rolling line maintenance decreased WoW this week, reducing the impact on output, and HRC production showed an increase overall. Demand side, apparent demand edged up slightly WoW this week. Inventory side, this week, SMM’s tally of HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide stood at 4.3519 million mt, down 114,500 mt WoW, or a decline of 2.56%. By region, inventory in South China and Northeast China saw slight accumulation, while North China, East China, and Central and West China continued destocking. Cost side, coking coal and coke futures trended strongly this week. The fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, and hot metal output rebounded, supporting iron ore prices. HRC cost support was strong. Looking ahead, expectations for a sixth round of coke price increases remain, and according to SMM, hot metal output is still expected to rise further, providing demand support for iron ore. Overall, the cost side still offers support. From the perspective of HRC fundamentals, the current supply-demand imbalance has not yet accumulated to drag on prices. However, considering that downstream buyers mainly purchase as needed during the off-season, demand is unlikely to see a significant surge, capping price increases. Next week, HRC prices are expected to remain range-bound, with the most-traded HRC contract trading in the 3,340-3,420 range.

According to preliminary data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), Turkey's hot rolled coil (HRC) imports in April 2026 reached 334,852 metric tons (mt), an increase of 8.2% month-on-month and 46.7% year-on-year, with the import value totaling $181.10 million (+9.2% m-o-m, +38.8% y-o-y). For the January-April 2026 period, total HRC imports amounted to 1,141,364 mt, up 8.1% year-on-year, while the total value rose 3.3% to $620.42 million. In terms of suppliers, Russia became the largest source with 248,889 mt (+9.2% y-o-y), followed by China, which saw a massive 39.6% drop to 229,800 mt, and Malaysia with 223,029 mt. The market impact indicates a clear structural rebalancing of Turkey's HRC supply chain; driven by recent trade defense measures targeting Chinese products, Turkish importers are actively diversifying their supply risks toward Russia, Malaysia, and other origins, demonstrating that while domestic demand remains resilient, procurement has become highly selective regarding price and origin advantages.