​​​​​​​Falling nickel benchmarks, a fragmented overseas supply base and a Malaysian enforcement crackdown lift India's stainless scrap imports 11.4% while pushing the average import price down 6.6% in the 12 months to February 2026

On July 29, NEEQ-listed company Henan Guorong Electronics Technology Co., Ltd. announced that Henan Xinxing Industry Investment Co., Ltd., under the Henan Capital Group, intends to acquire no less than 51% of its equity, aiming to establish a presence in the aluminum-based electronic new materials industry. Upon completion of the transaction, the controlling shareholder of Guorong will change to Henan Xinxing Industry Investment Co., Ltd., and its actual controller will become the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the Henan Provincial Government.

Backed by rigid cost-side support, the industry's low supply pattern, and coupled with the significant boost to industry chain sentiment from the sharp hike in August hydrofluoric acid long-term contract prices, the aluminum fluoride market price is expected to hold up well overall in August.

SMM July 31: During July 24-30, 2026, the SMM weekly operating rate of secondary lead across four provinces was 28.6%, down 0.9 ppt WoW. In Jiangsu, smelters that resumed production operated at low rates, while smelters in Inner Mongolia remained suspended; Henan smelters' operations were dragged down by losses and raw material shortages, with some halting production; some Anhui enterprises ramped up production after replenishing raw materials, leading to a rebound in the regional operating rate. Next week, some Anhui smelters plan to halt production. Continued tracking is needed for raw material arrivals in Henan and Jiangsu and the impact of lead prices on smelters’ production decisions.

China sulphuric acid market continues weak, regional declines widen, index falls [SMM Sulphuric Acid Weekly Review]

[SMM Molybdenum Analysis: Supply-side supported a strong molybdenum market in July; supply-demand support logic persists in August] SMM July 31 report: In July, China’s molybdenum market maintained a pattern of strong concentrates and weak ferro-molybdenum, with the overall market consolidating at highs. Industry chain profits continued to concentrate upstream. In July, China’s molybdenum concentrates market faced many supply disruptions in China and overseas. Coupled with downstream ferro-molybdenum steel tender volumes strengthening both YoY and MoM, and robust demand, these bullish supply-demand fundamentals drove prices of molybdenum concentrates and ferro-molybdenum to repeatedly hit three-year highs, challenging previous highs.

The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: Deepen comprehensive reform of investment and financing in the capital market, and enhance the resilience and confidence of the capital market.

SMM July 30 news: Price review: As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,707.36 yuan/mt, down 6.01 yuan/mt from the previous Thursday. Among regions, Shandong reported 2,700-2,750 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous Thursday; Henan reported 2,720-2,780 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt; Shanxi reported 2,720-2,760 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt; Guangxi reported 2,600-2,670 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt; and Guizhou reported 2,760-2,800 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous Thursday. Markets outside China: As of July 30, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $346/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $34.15/mt and a USD/CNY selling rate around 6.78. This translated to a selling price at major Chinese ports of about 2,991.45 yuan/mt, which was 284.09 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price. One ex-China spot alumina transaction was heard this week, with details as follows: (1) On July 27, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded ex-China at $332/mt FOB Indonesia, for loading between end-July and early August. China: According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, total built capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina nationwide was 118.42 million mt/year, with operating capacity at 88.43 million mt/year. The national weekly operating rate fell 0.36 percentage point WoW to 74.68%. Specifically, Shandong’s weekly operating rate edged down 0.02 ppt WoW to 89.29%; Shanxi’s rose 0.26 ppt WoW to 63.72%; Henan’s dropped 4.83 ppt WoW to 53.16%; Guangxi’s increased 2.47 ppt WoW to 81.34%; Guizhou’s decreased 2.53 ppt WoW to 83.47%. In the spot market, three deals were done this week. Gansu procured 20,000 mt of spot alumina, with delivered prices of 2,930 yuan/mt and 2,880 yuan/mt. Qinghai saw a 10,000 mt spot alumina deal at a delivered price of 2,900 yuan/mt. Yunnan purchased 5,000 mt of spot alumina at an EXW price of 2,600 yuan/mt. Alumina prices fell steadily this week, with the overall market deeply bearish and prices still having downside room. This morning, the most-traded futures contract dropped to a low of 2,610 yuan/mt. In the short term, the round 2,600 yuan/mt mark provided some support, but in the long term, futures prices could break below 2,600 yuan/mt. Supply side, alumina production edged down this week, mainly because enterprises in different regions conducted scheduled maintenance, leading to a slight contraction in overall output, though the decline was limited. Inventory performance was mixed: aluminum smelters' raw material inventory rose 7,000 mt WoW to 3.387 million mt, as some smelters deemed current prices had fallen to a relatively low level after the sustained decline in alumina prices and began to buy moderate volumes to restock; alumina refineries' finished product inventories fell 18,000 mt to 1.217 million mt, with destocking taking place as refineries consumed in-factory inventory for downstream deliveries during maintenance. Warrant inventory increased 23,000 mt WoW to 254,000 mt, as some enterprises opted to ship to delivery warehouses. Notably, port inventory surged 111,000 mt to 945,000 mt this week. Although some cargoes entered bonded areas and are not yet flowing into the Chinese market, the overall import volume is still rising, exerting significant pressure on the Chinese market. In markets outside China, Indonesia restricted shipments due to rare earth elements in some alumina, causing short-term disruption to ex-China supply, but the Indonesian alumina traded last week is expected to be unaffected. Additionally, impacted by a hurricane, Jamaica's alumina production stood at 267,100 mt in Q1 2026, down 30.3% YoY, and is expected to gradually recover in Q2 and Q3. Overall ex-China alumina prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs in the near term. Looking ahead to next week, domestic spot prices will likely extend their decline, as spot premiums over futures still have some room to compress and downward pressure has not been fully released; the futures market will likely consolidate on a weak note, with near-term attention on support at 2,600 yuan/mt, while medium and long-term downside risks remain. On the inventory front, as some alumina refineries complete maintenance and production gradually recovers, the cumulative effect on the supply side will continue to intensify market pressure, and domestic inventory is expected to see further inventory buildup next week. [All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]

SMM News on July 30: Domestic Bauxite: Supply Disruptions Drive Up Domestic Ore Prices; Alumina Refineries' Long-Term Contract Procurement Prices Rise Overall Affected by coking coal-related incidents in Shanxi, mining activities in major domestic bauxite producing areas like Shanxi and Henan have been somewhat disrupted in the short term, leading to phased changes in ore supply. Meanwhile, alumina prices remain at relatively high levels, and alumina refineries have a moderate tolerance for rising raw material costs, mostly accepting current ore prices passively in the near term. As of today, the EXW price, excluding VAT, at crushing plants for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content in Shanxi is approximately 530-550 yuan/mt; in Henan, the EXW price for similar bauxite is around 500-540 yuan/mt; in the Guiyang area, the EXW price, including VAT, for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 60% alumina content is 490-540 yuan/mt; and in Guangxi, the EXW price, excluding VAT, for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content is 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported Bauxite: Ocean Freight Rates Fluctuate at Highs; August Long-Term Contract Prices Yet to Be Settled; Imported Bauxite Market Remains in a State of Continued Negotiation According to data from July 24, total weekly port departures of bauxite from major ports in Guinea were 3.0697 million mt, up 237,700 mt from the previous week, with shipments edging up slightly. As US-Iran tensions intensify again, oil prices have rebounded, and ocean freight rates from Guinea to China have followed suit with a rising trend, with market quotations reaching around $35/mt, driving up mine costs to varying degrees. Coupled with policy uncertainties in Guinea and weather-related transport disruptions, Guinean mines are tightening control over bauxite shipments. In Australia, as of July 24, total weekly bauxite port departures from major Australian ports were 1.0481 million mt, up 326,800 mt from the previous week, with shipments rising slightly; the future pace of shipments from Australian mines and changes in port departures require further attention. As of July 24, China's bauxite port arrivals stood at 2.7603 million mt, down 1.9029 million mt from the previous week. Continued attention is needed on the impact of high and fluctuating oil prices and ocean freight rates on future arrival pace and landed costs. In terms of prices, Guinean bauxite long-term contract offers for July are in the range of $70-71.5/mt, while August long-term contract prices are still under negotiation. Meanwhile, bauxite inventories at domestic alumina refineries remain at high levels. This week, alumina refinery bauxite inventories were relatively stable, with days of inventories at about 94 days, exerting some downward pressure on ore prices. As for Guinean bauxite, with the rebound in Guinean-to-China transportation costs, mine costs, plus shipment reductions caused by the traditional rainy season and adverse weather, upstream and trader offers remained firm and held steady in the high price range of $70-72/mt. Due to persistently high inventory at domestic alumina refineries and shrinking profits, the intended transaction price dropped to $70/mt or lower. The upstream and downstream bauxite market saw significant price divergence, with transaction activity slowing down, and the tug-of-war continued from the previous week. As of Thursday this week, Guinean bauxite FOB quotes were $38-40/mt, with the average price unchanged from the previous Thursday; CIF prices were reported at $69-73/mt, with the average up $0.5/mt from the previous Thursday; the SMM Imported Bauxite Index stood at $70.87/mt, up $0.51/mt from the previous Thursday. Future bauxite prices will still depend on mine cost conditions, Guinea’s traditional rainy season, and the impact of the Guinean government’s bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments. SMM will continue to closely monitor bauxite market trends and transactions. Overall , the domestic ore market price maintained the current level; meanwhile, inventory at domestic alumina refineries remained high (about 94 days), and buyers and sellers continued to bargain over offers. Uncertainty over Guinea’s quota policy, declining shipments, and the traditional rainy season also exerted some upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, as shipment volumes decline due to both costs and policy factors, imported ore prices are expected to maintain their high-level tug-of-war pattern. Afterwards, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea’s quota policy and the trend in ocean freight rates.

I. Coal-based Hydrogen Shandong anthracite transaction range [1990-1990], average hydrogen cost was [1.81 yuan/m³] Hebei anthracite transaction range [1740-1740], average hydrogen cost was [1.62 yuan/m³] Shanxi anthracite transaction range [1260-1260], average hydrogen cost was [1.31 yuan/m³] Henan anthracite transaction range [1290-1290], average hydrogen cost was [1.31 yuan/m³] II. Natural Gas-based Hydrogen Eastern Guangdong natural gas transaction range [6000-6000], average hydrogen cost was [2.76 yuan/m³] Guangxi natural gas transaction range [5570-6140], average hydrogen cost was [2.69 yuan/m³] Shanxi natural gas transaction range [5190-5460], average hydrogen cost was [2.48 yuan/m³] Hebei natural gas transaction range [5300-5765], average hydrogen cost was [2.59 yuan/m³] Shandong natural gas transaction range [5485-6220], average hydrogen cost was [2.73 yuan/m³] Pearl River Delta natural gas transaction range [6000-6000], average hydrogen cost was [2.79 yuan/m³] Hubei natural gas transaction range [5560-5680], average hydrogen cost was [2.63 yuan/m³] Henan natural gas transaction range [5400-5620], average hydrogen cost was [2.6 yuan/m³] Guizhou natural gas transaction range [5340-5630], average hydrogen cost was [2.56 yuan/m³] Sichuan natural gas transaction range [5290-5580], average hydrogen cost was [2.57 yuan/m³] Zhejiang natural gas transaction range [6120-6480], average hydrogen cost was [2.89 yuan/m³] Inner Mongolia natural gas transaction range [5320-5560], average hydrogen cost was [2.49 yuan/m³] Heilongjiang natural gas transaction range [5560-5900], average hydrogen cost was [2.66 yuan/m³] III. Propane-based Hydrogen Northeast propane transaction range [5260-5820], average hydrogen cost was [3.22 yuan/m³] East China propane transaction range [5830-5900], average hydrogen cost was [3.38 yuan/m³] Shandong propane transaction range [5866-5896], average hydrogen cost was [3.41 yuan/m³] South China propane transaction range [5910-6090], average hydrogen cost was [3.45 yuan/m³] IV. Methanol-based Hydrogen Northeast methanol transaction range [2620-2740], average hydrogen cost was [2.37 yuan/m³] East China methanol transaction range [2530-2730], average hydrogen cost was [2.35 yuan/m³] Central China methanol transaction range [2450-2790], average hydrogen cost was [2.37 yuan/m³] North China methanol transaction range [2300-2480], average hydrogen cost was [2.16 yuan/m³] South China methanol transaction range [2720-2740], average hydrogen cost was [2.4 yuan/m³] Northwest China methanol transaction range [1960-2390], average hydrogen cost was [2 yuan/m³] Southwest China methanol transaction range [2460-2740], average hydrogen cost was [2.36 yuan/m³]