[Worsening Supply Concerns and Gradual Demand Recovery Stabilize the Center of Aluminum Prices with Geopolitical Premiums ]Overall, the market's core focus in the period ahead is on whether key aluminum smelters in the Middle East will further expand production cuts. If the cuts continue to materialize, they will provide strong upward momentum for global aluminum prices, coupled with support from expectations of a gradual release of demand during China’s peak season. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.

SMM News, Apr 2: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, with its center moving higher than the previous day. Affected by elevated aluminum prices, shipping sentiment was stronger than buying sentiment, while end-user downstream purchase sentiment was weak and spot cargo circulation was relatively ample. Market transactions were mainly concentrated at discounts of 10 yuan/mt to the SMM A00 aluminum average price. Today, the east China market shipping sentiment index was 3.43, up 0.02 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.01, up 0.01 MoM. Aluminum futures prices remained elevated, but in the central China market, traders were overall more bullish than bearish. Although downstream orders were not enough to support excessive stockpiling, traders were relatively active in purchasing for hedging purposes. After the initial stage, shipments from sellers declined, while higher-bid purchasing increased, driving market quotes and transaction prices all the way up. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a discount of 40 yuan/mt to the central China price to a premium of 10 yuan/mt over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipping sentiment index was 2.79, up 0.03 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.44, up 0.02 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 2,000 mt from the previous period today, with Guangdong as the main source of the inventory buildup. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its seasonal buildup after the Chinese New Year. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

Gold has lost significant ground in recent weeks, but for Wells Fargo, this apparently changes little in the long-term picture. The US bank has reaffirmed its positive outlook for the precious metal and significantly raised its price target for the current year.

SMM News, March 31: Aluminum ingot: On March 31, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 24,520, up 90, at a discount of 190 to the current-month contract, widening by 5 (unit: yuan/mt) SHFE aluminum 04 contract continued its upward trend today, while the South China spot market gradually weakened. At the start of the new week, overall buyer procurement sentiment weakened today, and downstream players, wary of high prices, showed weak willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. Under the dual pressure of high absolute prices and inventory buildup, sellers were prompted to actively accelerate price cuts for shipments to lock in profits. Although some hedging cargo holders still held prices firm and shipped slowly, dragged down by relatively ample circulation, the overall strength of holding prices firm became increasingly limited. Today, mainstream transaction prices in the market were concentrated at premiums of -200 yuan/mt to -180 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract.

[SMM Analysis] Steel Export Review: Geopolitical Conflicts Trigger the Reshaping of the Export Landscape In terms of steel billet exports , the main target market in the first two months remained Indonesia. Part of the cargoes was imported by Chinese-funded or joint-venture rolling mills in Indonesia for further processing and use, thereby avoiding Southeast Asia’s import tariffs on finished steel products, while another part was supplied directly to local projects under construction. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America formed a solid base of exports. In particular, on the African side, Djibouti, as a core transshipment hub, had been handling a large volume of circulating resources. Turkey, meanwhile, saw a wave of concentrated external purchases due to delays in steel scrap vessel schedules and spot-futures price spread arbitrage. In terms of bar exports , the share to Hong Kong, China declined somewhat from the end of last year, while exports to Singapore overtook it. The main reason was that procurement in Singapore was rigidly driven by local public housing renewal and public infrastructure projects, such as the Greater Southern Waterfront, according to construction periods, with actual end-user consumption remaining relatively stable; whereas Hong Kong, China, as a capital and logistics transshipment hub, saw some earlier speculative re-export orders constrained by offshore exchange-rate fluctuations at the beginning of the year and funding borrowing costs. Traders proactively reduced some speculative exposure for financial risk hedging purposes, which led to a decline in transshipment procurement volume. Looking ahead to March , with the full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s semi-finished products export channels were effectively cut off. Chinese steel billet is expected to absorb these additional export orders arising from geopolitical conflict, and traders and steel mills will also accelerate shipments to markets outside China such as Southeast Asia to gain a larger replacement share. Therefore, total steel billet exports still have room to rise. By contrast, Chinese bar exports mainly rely on short-haul regional shipping routes into the inland areas within Asia, and were subject to extremely limited direct impact from the disruption of long-haul Middle East logistics. Therefore, March shipments are expected to remain stable, supported by rigid-demand restocking within the region. Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Unlike the strong performance of billets, sheets & plates exports in the first two months were unsatisfactory. The cumulative exports of both cold galvanized and hot-rolled products in January and February declined YoY , with the drop in hot-rolled products being more pronounced. However, it should be noted that before the full suspension of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, logistics channels to the Middle East remained open, which secured a critical delivery window for sheets & plates. Therefore, in terms of HRC exports , Saudi Arabia still firmly ranked first among export destinations with a volume of 348,000 mt , mainly because its large-scale non-oil infrastructure and manufacturing projects in China were still in an intensive construction phase, with strong end-user steel demand, which also prompted local buyers to lock in relatively lower-priced Chinese HRC ahead of shipping disruptions, thereby maintaining its leading position. Pakistan (230,000 mt ), by contrast, saw this mainly due to bottlenecks in domestic supply, creating phased concentrated restocking demand, and according to the SMM survey, most purchases were made by downstream pipe factories. From the perspective of cold galvanized exports , the Southeast Asian market was currently in a stage of rapid development, and macroeconomic expansion had created a huge gap in flat steel products. Thailand in particular (304,000 mt ) was in a concentrated raw material stocking cycle for local downstream auto manufacturers at the beginning of this year, so just-in-time procurement by multiple physical manufacturers directly pushed up local imports. Looking ahead to March , under the dual impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the Ramadan effect, sheets & plates exports to the Middle East core region are expected to face a sharp contraction. SMM shipping data showed that steel arrivals had already declined by more than 900,000 mt. However, under the pressure of elevated destocking in China, this portion of blocked exports is expected to be redirected to Southeast Asia and other alternative markets with “rigid manufacturing demand” for redistribution, thereby offsetting shipment reductions caused by localized logistics disruptions. Therefore, there is no need for excessive concern over total sheets & plates exports in March Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. 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From the perspective of Sprott’s experts, gold remains a central strategic building block for investors, even if the precious metal suffers in the short term from the rise in US Treasury yields.

On March 27, the 2026 SMM (21st) Lead & Zinc Conference and Industry Expo, organized by SMM, wrapped up successfully at Howard Johnson Agile Plaza in Chengdu, Sichuan!

The current development of the gold price continues to cause frustration for many investors. Despite the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East and the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, gold has so far failed to gain lasting new momentum from these events.

SMM News, March 30: Aluminum ingot: On March 30, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 24,430, up 710, at a discount of 185 against the current-month contract, widening by 10 (unit: yuan/mt) The SHFE aluminum 04 contract surged sharply today, while the South China spot market still remained in the doldrums. At the start of the new week, overall buyer procurement sentiment weakened today, and downstream players appeared somewhat wary of high prices, with insufficient willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. High absolute prices prompted sellers to lower prices for profit-taking shipments, and although some hedging cargo holders still held prices firm and shipped slowly, overall support for prices was limited under the drag of inventory buildup. Today, mainstream transaction prices in the market were concentrated at premiums of -195 yuan/mt to -175 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract.

On March 26, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange issued a notice on adjusting the trading margin ratios and price limit ranges for newly listed Container Freight Index (Europe Service) futures contracts. Notice on Adjusting the Trading Margin Ratios and Price Limit Ranges for Newly Listed Container Freight Index (Europe Service) Futures Contracts To all relevant parties: Upon review and decision, the price limit ranges and trading margin ratios for the following contract shall be adjusted as follows from the date of listing: For the Container Freight Index (Europe Service) EC2703 contract, the price limit range shall be 20%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions shall be 22%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions shall be 22%. In the event of any circumstance specified in Article 16 of the Detailed Rules of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange on Risk Control Management, adjustments shall be made on the basis of the above price limit ranges and trading margin ratios. Other matters concerning price limits and trading margins shall be implemented in accordance with the Detailed Rules of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange on Risk Control Management and other relevant business rules. Hereby notified. Shanghai International Energy Exchange Mar 2026 Shanghai International Energy Exchange Mar 2026