SMM, March 24: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,435 yuan/mt intraday. After the opening, prices edged lower, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified. SHFE lead prices fluctuated at lows in consolidation, touching an intraday low of 16,385 yuan/mt. Thereafter, bulls gradually gained strength and prices fluctuated higher, but with insufficient upward momentum, lead prices pulled back again and fluctuated rangebound within the 16,429-16,451 yuan/mt range. Near the close, SHFE lead prices dipped slightly and finally settled at 16,420 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, up 25 yuan/mt, or 0.15%. In terms of supply, primary lead enterprise quotes saw discounts narrow slightly from last Friday, and spot cargo available for pickup at plants with medium to large discounts decreased significantly; in the secondary refined lead market, fewer merchants offered quotes, with relatively prominent price divergence between upstream and downstream players. Downstream buyers showed limited acceptance of premiums, while upstream quotes stayed firm and willingness to sell remained cautious. On the demand side, downstream enterprise procurement pace was relatively scattered, with most purchases centered on the execution of long-term contracts. Some enterprises replenished inventories on dips based on immediate needs, and overall market transactions were mixed. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Statement on data sources: Except for public information, all other data is derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

As supply and demand for construction steel were not fully matched across different markets, regional supply-demand mismatches created price differentiation, which in turn drove the cross-regional circulation of steel resources. When the regional price spread gradient was appropriate, regions with surplus construction steel capacity and production often shipped excess resources out, thereby rebalancing construction steel resources across regions.

SMM, March 20: Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 189,000 mt in January, down 0.1% MoM and up 17.1% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 202,000 mt, up 6.6% MoM and up 0.7% YoY. In January-February 2026, China’s cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled about 391,000 mt, up 8.0% YoY. Exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 13,000 mt in January, down 64.6% MoM and up 56.6% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 10,000 mt, down 24.6% MoM and up 187.9% YoY. In January-February, cumulative primary aluminum exports totaled about 23,000 mt, up about 94.8% YoY. Net imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 176,000 mt in January, up 15.9% MoM and up 14.9% YoY; in February, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 192,000 mt, up 9.0% MoM and down 2.6% YoY. In January-February, China’s cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 367,000 mt, up 5.0% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.) Although China’s net primary aluminum imports maintained positive growth in January-February 2026, expectations of a sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China will challenge this situation. As of March 20, SMM’s Japan MJP spot premiums for aluminum ingot stood at $255/mt, up 45.7% from month-end February. Currently, some market participants were quoting Japan MJP CIF premiums for Q2 at around $350-353/mt, up about 80% from $195/mt in Q1; the US Midwest DDP aluminum premium stood at 105.25¢/lb, equivalent to $2,110/mt. As of March 13, Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-paid premiums stood at $470/mt, up about 27.0% from month-end February, while Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-unpaid premiums stood at $375/mt, up 27.2% from month-end February. The sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China is expected to divert some aluminum originally planned to flow into China, and China’s net aluminum imports are expected to decline YoY in 2026. The reason for this phenomenon lies in expectations of a contraction in aluminum supply outside China caused by reduced aluminum supply in the Middle East. As of March 20, Qatar Aluminum announced that it would maintain a 60% operating rate, involving 260,000 mt of shut capacity; Bahrain Aluminum announced the shutdown of Lines 1-3, involving about 310,000 mt of capacity. In total, 570,000 mt of aluminum capacity in the Middle East has been affected. Iran is at the center of the conflict, and the stability of its production faces severe challenges. In addition, some raw and auxiliary materials in the Middle East rely on imports, and the geopolitical conflict in the region has affected passage through the Strait of Hormuz, to some extent undermining raw material supply stability at certain aluminum plants. At present, aluminum plants in Saudi Arabia and Turkey have domestic upstream bauxite and alumina support and can achieve self-sufficiency, with room for exports; Bahrain Aluminum and Qatar Aluminum rely entirely on imported alumina, while the UAE has 2.5 million mt of alumina capacity, but its bauxite relies 100% on imports. Although Oman’s aluminum plants also depend on imported raw materials, their geographic location is outside the Strait of Hormuz, so the level of risk is relatively low. If transport routes remain closed and no new routes can be opened, aluminum production in the Middle East is expected to be significantly affected. However, according to the latest foreign media reports, Bahrain Aluminum is exporting 40-60% of its aluminum ingots through Saudi Arabia’s Port of Jeddah, with an overland transport distance of 1,400 kilometers, and UAE’s Emirates Global Aluminium is attempting to import alumina raw materials through ports in Oman. If new transport routes are opened, the production reduction risk at aluminum plants in the Middle East is expected to decline markedly. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to production developments at aluminum plants in the Middle East, transport route conditions, and trends in LME aluminum inventory.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Guinea Bauxite & Alumina Exports in January 2026. Ministry of Mines and Geology reports: Total bauxite 20.26 million tons; alumina 46,764 tons. Bauxite Highlights (top contributors): 1. SMB: 6.57 Mt (32 vessels) – leading exporter 2. Chalco: 2.64 Mt (14 vessels) 3. CBG: 1.64 Mt (28 vessels) 4. Zhicheng Guinee Mining/GBT: 0.94 Mt (5 vessels) 5. CDM China: 0.94 Mt (5 vessels) Other key volumes: 6. Cobad: 0.82 Mt 7. AMC: 0.79 Mt 8. BAM: 0.63 Mt 9. KBM: 0.58 Mt Alumina: 1. Friguia: 46,764 tons (2 vessels) – sole reported exporter

[Weak Market Sentiment Weighed on Both Spot Silicon Metal and Polysilicon Prices]: This week, the silicon metal market moved lower after a stalemate, with weak market sentiment, some downstream procurement demand released, and cautious trading sentiment. SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon stood at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW. At the beginning of the week, silicon metal market prices remained in a stalemate, while the most-traded contract fluctuated around 8,550-8,750 yuan/mt, with downstream procurement mainly focused on factory cargoes. Later, affected by macro factors and capital sentiment, futures prices declined continuously and closed at 8,285 yuan/mt on Thursday. As spot-futures traders' price advantages became apparent, shipments increased, downstream procurement sentiment diverged, and the market saw transactions based on immediate needs.

Guinea’s bauxite sector has drawn significant attention in recent years, with production nearing 130-137 million tonnes annually and multiple mining and infrastructure projects underway.

Guinea Plans to Establish Bauxite Price Index to Strengthen Resource Control According to foreign media reports on April 4, the Guinean government plans to launch the "Guinea Bauxite Price Index" by the end of 2025 as an official reference for export pricing, aiming to prevent transfer pricing, enhance export transparency, and increase national fiscal revenue. This index will transform Guinea from a price taker to a price setter. According to SMM statistics, Guinea's bauxite production reached 130 million mt in 2024, ranking first globally.

In October 2024, Guinean customs authorities suspended bauxite exports from Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), a subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), due to unresolved issues with the Guinean government, chiefly around concerns over GAC’s failure to progress on its commitment to build a domestic alumina refinery.

Customs data for October 2023 shows China's bauxite imports at 11.1273 million mt, up 11.0% MoM and 23.97% YoY.

Customs data for November 2023 shows China's bauxite imports at 11.9280 million mt, up 7.19% MoM and 1.17% YoY.