The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

In 2025, the global energy storage industry officially entered the 100 GW era. The wave of energy transition drove the industry to achieve breakthroughs in both scale and quality. China continued to lead with a 58.6% share of global new installations, serving as the core engine of global energy storage development. From accelerating technological iteration and breakthroughs to explosive expansion of market size, from comprehensive upgrades in enterprise strategies to sustained capital inflows, the energy storage industry is embracing unprecedented development opportunities and industry transformation. At the launch of the survey for the " 2026 Global PV Top 20 and China Energy Storage Top 20 Rankings, " we comprehensively reviewed the development trajectory of the global and Chinese energy storage industry in 2025, summarizing core highlights and development trends to provide comprehensive and authoritative decision-making references for industry participants including energy storage enterprises, industry investors, upstream and downstream suppliers, and related institutions, facilitating high-quality industry development. Global Energy Storage: Breakthroughs in Both Scale and Structure, with China Dominating the Supply Chain In 2025, global electricity ESS new installations reached 113.3 GW/323.5 GWh, up 48.2%/65.7% YoY, with cumulative installations exceeding 496.2 GW, demonstrating strong growth momentum. China contributed 66.4 GW/189.5 GWh of new installations, ranking first globally for four consecutive years. The US and Europe followed with 22.5 GW and 15.8 GW respectively, forming a stable "one dominant, multiple strong" global energy storage market landscape. In terms of technology routes, lithium-ion batteries remained mainstream with a 92.3% share. Meanwhile, long duration energy storage (LDES) technologies accelerated breakthroughs, with commercialization of flow batteries, compressed air energy storage, and gravity energy storage advancing rapidly. The share of global new LDES projects rose from 12.5% in 2024 to 18.7%. Sodium-ion battery technology maturity continued to rise, with top-tier enterprises achieving mass-produced battery cell energy density exceeding 160 Wh/kg and costs 20%-25% lower than LFP, offering new possibilities for cost reduction in the energy storage industry. At the supply chain level, Chinese enterprises held an absolutely dominant position. In 2025, global ESS battery shipments reached 651.5 GWh, up 76.2% YoY. Chinese enterprises shipped a combined 614.7 GWh, accounting for 94.4% of the global total. From upstream materials to downstream system integration, Chinese enterprises have built a complete and globally competitive supply chain system. China Energy Storage: Accelerating Market-Oriented Transformation with an Increasingly Mature Industrial Ecosystem Amid the rapid development of the global energy storage industry, China, as a core force, demonstrated a positive trajectory of accelerating market-oriented transformation and an increasingly mature industrial ecosystem. As of the end of 2025, China's cumulative electricity ESS installations reached 213.3 GW, accounting for 43.0% of the global total, up 54% YoY. Among them, new-type energy storage cumulative installations reached 144.2 GW, with its share rising to 67.6%, indicating continuous optimization of the industrial structure. In 2025, the global energy storage industry officially entered the 100-GW era. The wave of energy transition drove the industry to achieve dual breakthroughs in scale and quality. China continued to lead with 58.6% of global new installations, serving as the core engine of global energy storage development. From accelerated technological iteration breakthroughs to explosive market size expansion, from comprehensive upgrades in enterprise strategies to sustained capital inflows, the energy storage industry is embracing unprecedented development opportunities and industry transformation. At the launch of the " 2026 Global PV Top 20 and China Energy Storage Top 20 Rankings " survey, we comprehensively reviewed the development trajectory of the global and Chinese energy storage industry in 2025, summarized core industry highlights and development trends, and provided comprehensive and authoritative decision-making references for industry participants including energy storage enterprises, industry investors, upstream and downstream suppliers, and related institutions, facilitating high-quality industry development. Global Energy Storage: Dual Breakthroughs in Scale and Structure, with China Dominating the Supply Chain In 2025, global electricity ESS new installations reached 113.3 GW/323.5 GWh, up 48.2%/65.7% YoY, with cumulative installations exceeding 496.2 GW, demonstrating strong industry growth momentum. China contributed 66.4 GW/189.5 GWh of new installations, ranking first globally for four consecutive years. The US and Europe followed with 22.5 GW and 15.8 GW respectively, forming a stable "one dominant leader with multiple strong players" pattern in the global energy storage market. In terms of technology routes, lithium-ion batteries remained the mainstream, accounting for 92.3%. Meanwhile, long duration energy storage (LDES) technologies accelerated breakthroughs, with the commercialization of flow batteries, compressed air energy storage, and gravity energy storage advancing rapidly. The share of global new LDES projects rose from 12.5% in 2024 to 18.7%. Sodium-ion battery technology maturity continued to rise, with top-tier enterprises achieving mass-produced battery cell energy density exceeding 160 Wh/kg and costs 20%-25% lower than LFP, offering new possibilities for cost reduction in the energy storage industry. At the supply chain level, Chinese enterprises held an absolutely dominant position. In 2025, global ESS battery shipments reached 651.5 GWh, up 76.2% YoY. Chinese enterprises shipped a combined 614.7 GWh, accounting for 94.4% of the global total. From upstream materials to downstream system integration, Chinese enterprises have built a complete and globally competitive supply chain system. China Energy Storage: Accelerating Market-Oriented Transformation and Increasingly Refined Industrial Ecosystem Amid the rapid global development of the energy storage industry, China, as a core force, demonstrates an accelerating market-oriented transformation and an increasingly refined industrial ecosystem. By the end of 2025, China's cumulative electricity ESS installations reached 213.3 GW, accounting for 43.0% of the global total, up 54% YoY. Among them, new-type energy storage cumulative installations reached 144.2 GW, with its share rising to 67.6%, indicating continuous optimization of the industrial structure. Application scenarios , standalone ESS accounted for 63% of new installations, up 2.7 percentage points from 2024. A coordinated development pattern between the power grid side and user side has taken shape, with the core values of energy storage in peak shaving, frequency regulation, and backup being fully released. Market entities, according to Qichacha data, the number of newly registered energy storage-related enterprises in China reached 107,000 in 2025, up 17.0% YoY, hitting a ten-year high. East China and south China demonstrated significant industrial cluster effects, accounting for 32.3% and 20.3% respectively. Meanwhile, industry reshuffle also accelerated, with approximately 50,000 enterprises exiting the market throughout the year, and a "the strong stay strong" industry landscape initially emerged. The dual drivers of policy and market injected sustained momentum into industry development. The NDRC and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on High-Quality Development of New-Type Energy Storage," setting a clear target of 200 GW for new-type energy storage installations by 2027. At the local level, 12 provinces have introduced standalone ESS support policies. Capacity electricity prices and peak shaving compensation mechanisms have been gradually refined, with the average IRR of standalone ESS reaching 8.5%-10% in 2025. The improvement in market-oriented returns further stimulated investment vitality in the industry. Top-Tier Enterprises Leading: Dual Empowerment of Technological Innovation and Market Expansion In 2025, key enterprises in the energy storage industry continued to intensify technological innovation and market expansion, leading the industry's transformation toward high-quality development. Top-tier enterprises leveraged their technological and scale advantages to continuously consolidate their market positions. CATL , as the industry leader, saw its ESS battery sales up 29.13% YoY in 2025, ranking first globally for five consecutive years. Its ESS revenue reached 62.44 billion yuan, accounting for 14.74% of total revenue. It also launched condensed-state battery technology with an energy density of 500 Wh/kg, and actively deployed sodium-ion batteries, planning to apply them on a large scale in the ESS sector in 2026. Sungrow delivered outstanding performance in the ESS sector, with full-year ESS revenue of 37.287 billion yuan, up 49.39% YoY, accounting for 41.8% of total revenue. Its global ESS shipments exceeded 25 GWh, with markets outside China accounting for 60%, focusing on core markets including the US, Europe, and the Middle East. Beyond technology deployment, major industry contract signings and capacity expansions also occurred frequently. Canadian Solar Inc. had ESS orders on hand worth $3.6 billion, with global ESS shipments hitting a record high. From publicly listed firms' performance, energy storage business has become a core growth driver for many enterprises, with significant performance divergence across the industry and top-tier enterprises further expanding their advantages. CATL, Sungrow, and other leading enterprises achieved steady growth in energy storage business through comprehensive deployment and strong competitiveness. Meanwhile, Sunwoda, Ginlong Technology, and other enterprises also achieved explosive growth in energy storage business. Ginlong Technology's energy storage business grew 185.31% YoY, with significant increases in string-type energy storage inverter shipments. CORUN, leveraging strategic transformation, achieved 1,700% YoY growth in energy storage business and 1,516.64% growth in non-recurring net profit, becoming an industry dark horse. These enterprises' performance fully reflected the strong momentum of the energy storage industry. 2026 Global PV Top 20 and China Energy Storage Top 20 Rankings Survey Officially Launched Currently, the Strait of Hormuz blockade crisis continues to escalate, plunging global energy supply into a severely strained situation and posing enormous challenges to energy security. Against this backdrop, energy storage, as the "ballast stone" of new energy power, has seen its core value in stable power supply and peak shaving increasingly highlighted. It has not only met more urgent rigid market demand but also driven the industry to explore more cost-effective and practically applicable technology solutions, providing critical support for alleviating global energy tensions and safeguarding energy security. Standing at a turning point of the era, the energy storage industry is transitioning from rapid growth to high-quality development, with technology innovation, cost reduction, market expansion, and landscape reshaping becoming the core key words of industry development. To comprehensively review China's energy storage industry achievements, objectively assess enterprises' comprehensive strengths, and build bridges for industry exchange and cooperation, 2026 Global PV Top 20 and China Energy Storage Top 20 Rankings Survey Has Officially Launched ! This 2026 China Energy Storage Top 20 will produce the 2026 China Energy Storage Enterprise Top 20 (Comprehensive), 2026 China ESS Battery Enterprise Top 20 , and 2026 China ESS Enterprise Top 20 . Ultimately, an authoritative ranking with industry influence will be established. This ranking will serve as an important reference for energy storage enterprises, industry investors, upstream and downstream suppliers, survey institutions, and others, facilitating optimal allocation of industry resources and driving higher-quality development of the energy storage industry. Relevant enterprises are welcome to actively participate in the survey and jointly witness the beginning of a new chapter in the energy storage industry. When solar panels in Lebanon broke through war and scarcity to sustain the survival hopes of an entire city; when Europe adopted household ESS as the primary alternative amid the energy crisis, fortifying energy security with household ESS; when Chinese energy enterprises erected an energy security shield for the world with core technologies, outstanding quality, and a sense of responsibility — we clearly see that new energy technologies and new forces are rising to safeguard global energy security. This force demonstrates the confidence and commitment of Chinese brands, and carries humanity's aspiration for stable energy. We believe that Chinese brands will ultimately inject lasting Chinese momentum into global energy security amid the global energy transformation. 2026 Global PV Top 20 Rankings NO.1 2026 Global PV Enterprise Top 20 (Comprehensive) *Based on enterprise's 2025 annual global PV-related project, product, and service revenue (1 million) NO.2 2026 China PV Enterprise Top 20 (Comprehensive) *Based on enterprise's 2025 annual global PV-related project, product, and service revenue (1 million) NO.3 2026 China PV Power Plant Investment Enterprise Top 20 *Based on enterprise's 2025 annual global PV power plant investment grid connection installations (MW) NO.4 2026 China PV Power Plant EPC General Contractor Enterprise Top 20 *Based on enterprise's 2025 annual global PV power plant grid connection installations (MW) NO.5 2026 China PV Module Enterprise Top 20 *Based on enterprise's 2025 annual global module shipments (MW) NO.6 2026 China PV Inverter Publicly Listed Enterprise Top 15 *Based on each publicly listed firm's (including the listed company and its subsidiaries) 2025 annual global inverter shipments (MW) NO.7 2026 China Solar Panel Mounting Bracket Enterprise Top 20 *Based on enterprise's 2025 annual global mounting bracket shipments (MW) Note: Ranking revenue is denominated in RMB (exchange rates are based on the local currency to RMB exchange rate as of December 31, 2025) 2026 China Energy Storage Top 20 Rankings NO.1 2026 China Energy Storage Enterprise Top 20 Rankings (Comprehensive) *Based on enterprise's 2025 annual energy storage-related project, product, and service revenue (1 million) NO.2 2026 China ESS Battery Enterprise Top 20 Rankings *Based on enterprise's 2025 annual ESS battery sales (MWh) NO.3 2026 China ESS Enterprise Top 20 Rankings *Based on enterprise's 2025 annual ESS installations (MWh) Contact Us ABOUT US 2026 Global PV Top 20 Rankings Declaration and Conference Inquiry: Ms. Zhou: 18651953272 Email: 772813695@qq.com 2026 China Energy Storage Top 20 Rankings Declaration and Conference Inquiry: Ms. Liu: 13584535579 Email: 343856673@qq.com

It has become a consensus that domestic demand for new energy vehicles will be under periodic pressure in 2026. However, the industry has not lost its growth momentum but is shifting from past expansion driven by pricing and policy to a growth model supported by products, structural optimization, and markets outside China. At the same time, the rise on the cost side is squeezing profit margins, making the issue of "growing but not profiting" increasingly visible.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidated at Highs During the Night Session, Spot Market Remained Sluggish]

April 21, 2026: Customs data showed that China's aluminum wire exports totaled 26,350 mt in March 2026, up 13 percentage points MoM and 16.64 percentage points YoY. In terms of export product structure, exports of aluminum conductor steel-reinforced (ACSR) cable reached 18,300 mt in March, accounting for 69.64%, while exports of other non-insulated stranded aluminum wire totaled 8,000 mt, accounting for 30.36%. From January to March, China's total aluminum wire exports reached 79,600 mt, up 29.5 percentage points YoY. (HS codes: 76141000, 76149000) By export destination, the top destination for aluminum wire and cable exports in March 2026 was Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, with exports totaling 6,330 mt, accounting for 24% of March exports. Although Middle East tensions have escalated since March and the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, enterprises can opt to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope in Africa and reach ports through the Red Sea for domestic shipment, so the impact on orders has been relatively limited. The second-largest export destination was Tanzania in Africa, where steady release of local power grid project demand provided support for China's exports. In addition, based on last year's data, Middle East orders accounted for 10.4% of total exports, and given the availability of alternative shipping routes, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz on export destinations was relatively limited, with minimal effect on domestic orders. By province, China's aluminum wire export landscape remained stable. Jiangsu Province continued to rank first, with March exports of 13,459 mt, accounting for 51% of total exports, up 13.2 percentage points MoM. Henan Province ranked second with exports of 3,940 mt, accounting for 15% of total exports, up 16.6% MoM. Xinjiang achieved a MoM increase of 560.2%, with exports of 3,822 mt, ranking third. Overall, China's aluminum wire exports continued the high-volume trend in March 2026. Regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia demonstrated steady demand release driven by power grid construction project progress, injecting growth momentum into China's aluminum wire exports in 2026. Meanwhile, aluminum production cuts outside China further widened the price spread between domestic and overseas markets, and subsequent exports are expected to demonstrate strong sustainability. In addition, as China's aluminum wire still enjoys export tax rebates, the resulting profit spread has led to emerging demand for re-melting exported stranded aluminum wire into aluminum ingots, further boosting China's aluminum wire exports. Based on optimistic expectations for overseas demand, coupled with order transmission lead times, China's aluminum wire exports in April–May are expected to approach or surpass the five-year high for single-month exports.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Saw Wild Swings in Night Session, Spot Market Trading Was Subdued]

Over the past half-century of industrialisation, the global seaborne iron ore market took shape and solidified into a "duopoly" supply structure dominated by Australia's Pilbara region and Brazil's Carajás and Iron Quadrangle regions. However, with the evolution of macroeconomic cycles, the structural shift in China's economic growth momentum, and the historic imperative for the global steel industry to transition toward low-carbonisation and green development, this traditional supply landscape is undergoing an unprecedented reshaping. On November 26, 2025, as the first commercial vessel loaded with Simandou iron ore slowly departed Mabariya Port for the open sea, Guinea's Simandou iron mine officially commenced production. As the world's largest and highest-quality greenfield iron ore project, this milestone signalled the gradual rise of the African continent—long relegated to a secondary position—as an important emerging force in the global ferrous metals market. Why should we pay attention to the African market? The African continent's iron ore resources are regarded as the third most important region for global iron ore supply, after Brazil's Carajás region and Australia's Pilbara region. The sheer scale and high grade of its resources account for 13.8% of global iron ore resources. It is also set to be the primary supply-side growth driver over the next five years. Therefore, changes in African iron ore will long remain a key market determining international iron ore prices . This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the current status and landscape of African iron ore and select steel markets, offers an in-depth discussion of future development trends, and presents a data-driven outlook on market changes. I. Global Iron Ore Background According to SMM survey data, as of 2025, global iron ore production is estimated at approximately 2.472 billion mt. Of this, Africa contributed approximately 95 million mt, accounting for nearly 4% of total global production. With the successive commissioning of various large-scale mining projects, Africa's iron ore capacity is expected to double by 2030, reaching a scale of nearly 259 million mt. Assuming no production cuts in other regions, Africa-produced iron ore's global market share is expected to rise to nearly 10%, while the global iron ore market's oversupply is estimated to increase to approximately 220 million mt. (Chart-1: Balance Sheet) Although the international iron ore market has already entered a prolonged cycle of loose supply, the substantive supply shock from African iron ore is expected to materialise gradually only over the next five years. In the short term, based on an estimated 15 million mt of new African shipments in 2026, their outstanding high-grade characteristics are expected to quickly meet steel mills' current demand for low-carbon ore blending, allowing the market to absorb them smoothly, with a relatively mild impact on absolute international iron ore prices. The key point to watch will be from 2028 to 2029. As railway, port, and other infrastructure facilities still under development in Africa are fully connected, the surge in high-grade iron ore production will exert heavy downward pressure on the right side of the global iron ore cost curve. This will not only systematically push down the price center of iron ore but also trigger intense structural squeeze; that is, the survival space for low-grade, high-cost mines will be significantly compressed. This price downcycle is expected to persist through 2028. When international ore prices fall below the marginal cost support level of $90/mt, non-mainstream small mines on the far right of the cost curve will be forced to shut down and exit the market. By then, the global iron ore supply landscape will have completed a new round of reshuffle, re-forming a multi-oligopoly ecosystem dominated by ultra-large, low-cost mines (including new African mines), supplemented by quality mid-sized mines. (Chart-2: Price Forecast Curve) II. African Market Current Landscape: South Africa as the Dominant Leader with Multiple Strong Players, West African Countries Actively Expanding Having analyzed the foundation of the global iron ore market landscape, the focus will now shift to the overall situation in Africa. As the primary driving force behind supply growth over the next five years, Africa's iron ore production is concentrated in West Africa and South Africa. Currently, Africa is dominated by three major countries. Among them, South Africa is the largest producer, with production reaching approximately 67 million mt in 2025, and its export shipments firmly hold an absolute dominant position of approximately 65% of Africa's total iron ore exports. However, constrained by potential structural limitations, the future organic growth potential of South Africa's iron ore industry is relatively limited. As major iron ore projects in other emerging resource-rich African countries successively come into production and release capacity, South Africa's share in Africa's overall export market is expected to face sustained contraction. Next is Mauritania, as Africa's second-largest iron ore producer, with production of 15 million mt in 2025 and export volumes of approximately 12 million mt, accounting for 12% of the African market. Mauritania borders the Atlantic Ocean, possesses abundant high-grade iron ore deposits deep in the Sahara Desert, and enjoys exceptionally favorable geographic location and mineral resources. Moreover, it is within close proximity to European and Middle Eastern markets that urgently need green industrial raw materials, providing it with unique advantages for absorbing the global transfer of green metallurgical capacity. It will be a highly promising iron ore supplier in the future. In addition, Sierra Leone, as another important supply hub in the region, also has an expected production of 12 million mt in 2025, holding a stable share of approximately 12% in the African export market. Chinese-invested iron ore mines within the country are actively expanding their operations. Macro trade flow perspective, based on full-year 2024 trade data, the proportion of African iron ore shipped to the Chinese market was relatively low compared to traditional mainstream mining regions, accounting for only about 60%, while the broader Asian market encompassing China, Japan, and South Korea collectively absorbed approximately 70% of African iron ore shipments. Meanwhile, Western European countries represented by the Netherlands and Germany constituted the core secondary shipping destination for African iron ore, with a trade flow share of nearly 14%. The remaining marginal trade flows exhibited a diversified pattern, radiating broadly to emerging steel capacity clusters in the Middle East, including Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. (Chart-3: African Iron Ore Market Overview) Enterprise level, Kumba Iron Ore and Assmang , both based in South Africa, became Africa's largest and second-largest iron ore producers with annual production of 37 million mt and 17 million mt, respectively. Kumba's mines such as Sishen are globally renowned for producing high-grade fines (>62%) and premium lump with excellent physical and metallurgical properties (Premium Lump, Fe 65.2%). Under the current trend of blast furnace emission reduction, this type of lump ore that can be directly charged into furnaces and reduce sintering carbon emissions has been highly sought after by the market, commanding a significant premium. Assmang also possesses high-quality iron ore assets, jointly controlled by African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) and Assore at a 50:50 ratio. Its Assmang fines and Assmang lump (grade at 64-65%) are also high-quality direct furnace charge materials. However, for this enterprise, the biggest bottleneck lies not at the pit head but on the rails. Heavy reliance on Transnet's rail shipping capacity means that logistics bottlenecks frequently cap its shipment volumes. SNIM (Société Nationale Industrielle et Minière de Mauritanie) is Mauritania's state-owned mining company and Africa's third-largest iron ore producer after the two South African companies. Unlike mainstream Australian and Brazilian ore, SNIM's products occupy a unique niche in terms of physicochemical specifications and market segmentation. Its most widely traded product is TZFC fines, characterized by extremely low aluminum (Al2O3) and phosphorus (P) content. As an excellent blending raw material, major steel mills prefer to blend SNIM ore fines with high-aluminum Australian fines (such as certain Pilbara blend ores) to significantly dilute the impurity ratio in furnace charge and optimize blast furnace performance. (Chart-4: Top-Tier Enterprises) III. Transformation of the African Market: Major Producing Countries May Stagnate While Emerging Projects Become Key Growth Drivers So where will future growth come from? According to SMM observations, the African market is expected to undergo significant structural changes over the next five years. Multiple large-scale iron ore projects across African countries are already under construction and plan to commence production before 2030. Based on estimates, Africa's iron ore supply is expected to grow substantially from approximately 95 million mt currently to 260 million mt over the next five years, representing a cumulative increase of up to 85%. The market landscape will also shift from South Africa-dominated exports led by Western players to Guinea-dominated exports. (Chart-5: African Market Production Trend) The primary growth driver will come from Guinea in West Africa. The country's renowned Simandou iron ore mine, jointly developed by multiple enterprises, is currently the world's largest undeveloped high-grade open-pit hematite deposit. With resource reserves exceeding 5 billion mt and a designed capacity of 120 million mt, it is the project with the greatest strategic potential to reshape the existing iron ore market landscape. Since the first ore shipment in late November 2025, as of Q1 2026, Simandou's main export port, Morebaya Port, has cumulatively shipped nearly 1.6 million mt. Blocks 1 and 2, developed under the leadership of the Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), have been successfully commissioned, with 2026 capacity expected to be achieved and shipments expected to reach full production of 60 million mt within the next 2–3 years. Blocks 3 and 4, which are expected to commence production in Q1 2026, are led by Simfer (a Rio Tinto & Baowu joint venture) and are expected to ship 5 million mt of ore in 2026, reaching full production of 60 million mt over 30 months. In other words, Guinea is expected to reach 120 million mt before 2030, vaulting to become the world's second-largest iron ore project, behind only Brazil's S11D project (with a post-expansion designed capacity of 200 million mt, expected to commence production in 2030). Other countries such as Liberia, Gabon, Sierra Leone, and Congo Republic all have iron ore projects under development, with a combined capacity of approximately 46 million mt planned to commence production by 2030. The largest among these is the Tokadeh Phase II project (Tokadeh Phase II) in Liberia, owned by ArcelorMittal (AML), which is expected to commence production in H2 2026 and reach full production of 20 million mt capacity by year-end, with iron ore concentrate expected to exceed Fe 66%. Given that AML's steelmaking capacity in Europe cannot absorb such a massive increase in the short term, the majority of Tokadeh 's products are expected to flow into the international market for trading, exerting downward pressure on iron ore concentrate prices. Currently, the largest exporting country, South Africa, is expected to largely maintain its production within the range of 63–67 million mt, with a risk of slight decline. The primary reason is that South Africa's iron ore transportation is highly dependent on the heavy-haul railway line (TFR) from Sishen to Saldanha Port. In recent years, Transnet Freight Rail (TFR), under South Africa's national transport company Transnet, has seen a significant decline in transport capacity due to numerous issues including locomotive and rolling stock shortages, frequent cable theft, and prolonged underinvestment in infrastructure, resulting in severely reduced transportation capacity for major bulk commodities such as iron ore and coal. South Africa's largest iron ore mine, Kumba, in its 2025 year-end financial report released in February 2026, indicated that its total finished product inventories reached as high as 7.5 million mt , increasing rather than decreasing compared to 6.9 million mt at the end of 2024. As railway transport capacity failed to match mine production capabilities, major South African iron ore producers were forced to accumulate large inventories at mine sites. To prevent inventory overflow, miners had to proactively lower production guidance. Although miners have been working to address transportation issues, the deep-rooted railway problems are difficult to resolve in the short term. Beyond 2030, there is also Mauritania's SNIM strategic growth blueprint. In the first phase (Horizon 1), the company plans to raise annual capacity to 45 million mt by 2031 through implementing lean production, equipment and technology upgrades, and joint development of new reserves. Of this, 20 million mt will be absorbed by SNIM's own wholly-owned capacity, while another 25 million mt will be achieved through attracting international capital to form joint ventures. Furthermore, SNIM has even set its sights on 2045 (Horizon 3), formulating a long-term goal of raising annual capacity to 80 million mt . In addition, there is the MIFOR project in the DRC. On March 26, 2026, the DRC signed a relevant memorandum of understanding with China, and the MIFOR project was listed as a flagship project with priority support. The mine is estimated to hold cumulative resources of 15 billion to 20 billion mt, with an average grade exceeding 60%. Its potential scale is considered to be approximately 2.5 times that of the Simandou project in Guinea. The first phase of the project is expected to cost $28.9 billion, involving the construction of a heavy-haul freight railway combined with Congo River shipping, ultimately connecting to the Banana deep-water port on the Atlantic coast. Initial annual production is expected to be 50 million mt, with a long-term goal of expanding to 300 million mt per year . All these projects are destined to make Africa an indispensable source of iron ore supply in the future. (Chart-6: Selected African Iron Ore Projects) IV. Global Steel Industry Chain Transformation: Will Africa, as a Hub of High-Grade Ore, Empower DRI Production? Notably, most of Africa's currently operating and planned iron ore projects have an average total iron grade (Fe) largely above 65% , with extremely low impurity content. This scarce high-grade ore is an ideal raw material for the direct reduced iron (DRI) process. As the DRI-EAF green steel route gains traction in Europe, the US, and China, future demand for iron ore with grades of 65% and above will surge exponentially. This will confer an exceptionally high "grade premium" on major iron ore projects including South Africa's Kumba, Guinea's Simandou, and other mines coming into production in the future. In the long run, the pricing benchmark for iron ore is inevitably shifting away from the traditional Platts 62% index, and African miners will gain bargaining leverage when renewing long-term agreements, thereby reshaping the global industry chain profit distribution landscape. In line with the global carbon neutrality trend, international investors, encouraged by local governments, are actively deploying high-value-added processing facilities, including DRI plants and high-grade pellet plants, aiming to fully leverage Africa's abundant high-grade iron ore resources and enormous energy potential for DRI production. Based on SMM's observations, approximately 200,000kt of DRI capacity is expected to emerge in Africa by 2030. The largest project among them is an 8.1 million mt DRI complex located in Libya, a joint venture between Turkish steel mill Tosyali and Libya's national steel company. (Chart-7: African DRI Projects) As China advances its "dual carbon" goals, the steelmaking industry is undergoing corresponding adjustments. China has set out a strategic blueprint for carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. The traditional high-carbon-emission long-process steelmaking route dominated by blast furnace-converter operations is facing extremely stringent capacity replacement policies and environmental protection regulations. Meanwhile, the global trade system is also accelerating the imposition of carbon costs — for example, the implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) — compelling the global steel supply chain to accelerate its transition from the source toward a low-carbon or even zero-carbon "green steel" era. Under this irreversible transformation trend, the short-process route combining DRI with electric furnace (EAF) has become the most commercially feasible decarbonization pathway. To meet the surging global demand for green steel in the future, market forecasts indicate that by the 2030s, global DRI designed capacity will need to increase by hundreds of millions of metric tons. This dramatic expansion in production scale will profoundly reshape the global steel supply landscape. The share of traditional pig iron production will gradually decline, while low-carbon DRI supply will directly determine the competitiveness of major economies in the global green steel market. In particular, the "hydrogen metallurgy" technology, which uses green hydrogen to replace natural gas and coal for iron ore reduction, is widely recognized by the industry as the core to achieving ultimate zero-carbon steelmaking. (Chart-8: Reshaping of the Steel Industry Chain Under Green Transformation) Represented by world-class high-quality iron ore projects such as Simandou in Guinea, the gradual commissioning of these super mines is expected to inject over 100 million mt of high-grade iron ore supply into the global market annually, significantly alleviating the global shortage of DRI-grade ore. More critically, North Africa and West Africa possess solar and wind energy potential that is second to none globally, enabling large-scale green hydrogen production at extremely low costs locally. This perfect combination of "high-grade ore + affordable green hydrogen" has led multinational capital and steel giants to increasingly favor establishing DRI production lines directly on African soil, reducing iron ore locally into low-carbon Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) that is convenient for transport, before shipping it to electric furnaces in Asia and Europe for smelting. As a result, Africa will formally transition from the old era to become an indispensable part of the green iron production chain.

In March, China’s composite PMI for aluminum processing registered 65.6%, rebounding strongly above the 50 mark.

Customs data showed that China’s aluminum wire and cable exports totaled 53,280 mt in January-February 2026, up 37% YoY from January-February last year.

Jan-Feb 2026 China magnesium exports reached 72.7kt, up 3.4kt YoY. Magnesium alloy led with +33.1% YoY, orders booked through April. Magnesium ingot fell 6.8% due to weak European demand, while powder grew 10.3%. However, US-Israel conflict disrupted Middle East aluminum plants, halting regional magnesium orders and pressuring Q2 outlook despite the strong start.