This week, ferrous metals retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, the market said that Asia had shifted to coal-fired power generation due to a natural gas supply deficit, while Indonesia would increase coal production and impose export taxes. The rise in international coal prices was transmitted to China, and coking coal and coke led the gains in ferrous metals; mid-week, the Middle East situation remained volatile, and the U.S. and Iran held differing attitudes toward war, with ferrous metals consolidating at high levels; the pullback in the second half of the week was also mainly due to the weakening of the cost-side logic, as market rumors said long-term iron ore contract negotiations had been completed, expectations for tightening iron ore supply declined, and raw materials turned into the main driver of the pullback. In the spot market, speculative trading and end-user purchase sentiment improved in the first half of the week, while rigid demand remained dominant in the second half, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

This week, the tungsten market showed a divergent trend with mild corrections in domestic prices and a contrarian rise in overseas APT prices. Domestic tungsten concentrate and midstream product prices remained relatively firm, while scrap tungsten prices dropped sharply as profit-taking emerged. Supported by a tight supply-demand balance, overseas markets strengthened, further widening the price gap between domestic and international markets.

Concluding our series, we shift focus to 2026's emerging NdFeB growth drivers: robotics, low-altitude economy, and electric two-wheelers. While viewed as the "second growth curve," we analyze their actual demand support amidst current macro and industry cycles to determine if they can offset traditional sector slowdowns.

Next week, due to the Qingming Festival in the Chinese market, SHFE will not conduct night session trading on the evening of April 3; outside China, due to Good Friday, exchanges including the LME will be closed for one day on April 3. In terms of macroeconomic data, key releases are expected to include China’s official manufacturing PMI for March, US ADP employment for March, US retail sales MoM for February, and US ISM manufacturing PMI for March. LME lead, current geopolitical tensions outside China remained prominent, shipping cycles lengthened, and crude oil prices rose, all of which had a significant impact on the base metal market. For lead, consumption in the Middle East was relatively stagnant, supply chains were disrupted, and transportation cycles for lead ingot and lead-acid batteries lengthened. Meanwhile, China’s lead ingot import arbitrage remained favorable, and overseas lead ingot continued to flow into the Chinese market. This week, LME lead ingot inventory fell by nearly 1 kt, and the LME Cash-3M contango narrowed to -$34.62/mt, providing support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,880-1,930/mt next week. SHFE lead, lead ingot inventory was destocked, including inventories at lead smelters and social warehouses, and lead prices showed signs of stabilizing after the decline. However, the lead ingot import window is currently open, while lead-acid batteries will enter the traditional off-season in April, limiting expectations for lead consumption. In addition, some secondary lead smelters recently resumed production and raised output, while new maintenance plans are also scheduled for April. With bullish and bearish factors coexisting in fundamentals, lead prices are expected to continue to fluctuate rangebound. If lead smelter maintenance is implemented as planned, lead prices may have a chance to rise relatively. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,300-16,700 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,250-16,550 yuan/mt. With the traditional off-season for lead-acid batteries approaching in April, downstream enterprises mostly maintained purchasing as needed, with limited procurement enthusiasm. Supply side, both primary lead and secondary lead enterprises saw output increases, and imported lead continued to flow into China, so spot lead premium trading may be difficult to sustain for long.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] News side, some steel mills are expected to raise wet-quenched coke prices by 50 yuan/mt and coke dry quenching prices by 55 yuan/mt, effective from 00:00 on April 1, 2026. In terms of supply, coke producers currently saw good shipments, and coke inventory remained at a relatively low level. Meanwhile, coking costs increased significantly, strengthening coke producers' willingness to increase prices. Demand side, steel sales improved, and steel mills were in the stage of resuming work and production, with hot metal production trending upward, boosting their willingness to procure coke. Overall, the first round of coke price increases may be implemented next week, and the coke market is likely to hold up well in the short term.

Hainan held a press conference on “100 Days of Closed-Loop Customs Operations at the Hainan Free Trade Port.” In the 100 days since the launch of closed-loop customs operations, foreign trade imports and exports exceeded 80 billion yuan, up 32.9% YoY. Among them, 186 declarations were processed under the “zero-tariff” policy, mainly involving spodumene and analytical instruments, with a total cargo value of nearly 1.7 billion yuan, up 1.46 times YoY; tax exemptions and reductions totaled 271 million yuan, up 93.6%; and average customs clearance time was shortened by 26%. Under the tariff exemption policy for value-added processing goods sold domestically, 547 declarations were processed, up 26.6%, with a total cargo value of 314 million yuan and tariff exemptions of 15.58 million yuan.

[Zinc Price Center Rose, Demand Performance Varied Across Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Segments] This week, operating rates of die-casting zinc alloy remained rangebound. From the perspective of end-user orders, demand performance varied across segments. Demand for orders of electronic products and auto parts was relatively strong recently, while traditional hardware products were dragged down by the real estate market and performed relatively average; orders for luggage zippers were weak, but apparel zipper orders at some enterprises were relatively steady......

[Renewed Environmental Protection Measures in Northern China Slightly Weighed on Galvanizing Operating Rates]: This week, the operating rate of the galvanizing industry was 58.88, down slightly by 0.81 percentage points WoW. Raw material side, zinc prices rebounded this week, downstream pick-up of goods was limited and consumption was mainly from existing stocks, but zinc ingots previously price-fixed by galvanising enterprises arrived one after another, leading to a slight decline in zinc ingot inventory at galvanising enterprises. The lower operating rate was mainly due to the renewed environmental protection measures in some northern regions, which affected operations.

This week (March 20–March 26), the operating rate of machines in China’s enamelled wire industry pulled back 0.2 percentage points MoM to 88.73%. Affected by weakening home appliance demand and fluctuations in copper prices, new orders this week pulled back 11.19 percentage points MoM, downstream pick-up of goods slowed down, finished product inventories edged up to 7.47 days, and enterprises were generally concerned about the order outlook for April.

【SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash News】Inventory side, high operating rates drove a slight increase in raw material stocking, while strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream buyers and a slowdown in the pace of picking up goods slowed the destocking of finished product inventories. Copper cathode rod enterprises were expected to maintain high operating rates next week to ensure deliveries; if new orders remained weak, the production pace might slow after finished product inventories rebounded.