June 12, 2026 Following a four-day sell-off of over $400, triggered by unexpectedly strong U.S. labor market and inflation data, the price of gold made a sharp turnaround on Thursday. A robust job market and persistent inflation had previously significantly dampened hopes for imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. As a result, the non-interest-bearing precious metal lost nearly 10% of its value, breaking below the technically critical 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023. However, this massive selling pressure came to an abrupt end late Thursday with a price jump of $140. The trigger was a report from Washington: U.S. President Donald Trump had called off a planned military strike against Iran in favor of new diplomatic approaches. At first glance, the recovery in the gold price seems paradoxical in this context, as geopolitical détente typically dampens demand for safe-haven assets. The price rise is therefore primarily attributable to short-covering. Short sellers took advantage of the news to quickly close out their positions in light of the unpredictable geopolitical environment. Despite the strong rebound, the chart picture remains weak for now. For a sustainable trend reversal, the precious metal must reclaim the 200-day moving average—which now acts as a key resistance level—on a closing price basis. Only then will the market signal that buyers are regaining control. Until then, investors are navigating a complex landscape: On the one hand, restrictive U.S. monetary policy is capping upside potential; on the other hand, a failure of diplomatic talks in the Middle East could trigger new flight-to-safety moves into gold at any time. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/goldpreis-vor-trendwende-200-tage-linie-wird-zum-schluessel

2026-06-10 15:25PM UTC While markets have been focused on the recent sharp decline in gold prices, the broader precious metals sector has also experienced significant selling pressure, with platinum-group metals suffering some of the steepest losses, according to a report from Bank of America. Both platinum and palladium recently fell to their lowest levels of the year amid continued pressure from the global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions. Global economic weakness and Middle East tensions weigh on platinum-group metals Commodity analysts at the bank said the rally in platinum-group metals lost momentum since late January, largely due to gold’s price action and persistent economic headwinds linked to the conflict in the Middle East, which continue to weigh on industrial metals demand. Despite the recent weakness, the bank maintained its positive long-term outlook for the sector, noting that it remains constructive on gold heading into the fourth quarter. A renewed gold rally could attract investors back into platinum-group metals and help support prices. Spot platinum fell to around $1,711 per ounce, down more than 2% during the session, while palladium traded near $1,203 per ounce, up roughly 0.5%. Since the sharp selloff on Friday, platinum has lost more than 9% of its value, while palladium has fallen over 6%. Higher price targets despite weak industrial and jewelry demand Despite current pressures, Bank of America still expects platinum to average around $3,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Palladium is expected to average around $2,200 per ounce during the final three months of the year. Platinum-group metals delivered strong gains during 2025 as global trade tensions and threats of tariffs on precious metals created significant disruptions in physical market liquidity. However, analysts noted that most of those concerns eased after tariff threats failed to translate into broad implementation. According to the report, the absence of tariffs resulted in more than 200,000 ounces of platinum leaving NYMEX warehouses, roughly half of the inflows recorded during the second half of 2025. Palladium, meanwhile, saw outflows in late January before flows reversed after the US Department of Commerce imposed final anti-dumping duties of 133% and countervailing duties of 109% on Russian palladium. Structural shifts in demand The bank also highlighted structural changes in demand for platinum-group metals. Platinum is expected to record a modest supply deficit this year, while palladium is forecast to remain in a slight surplus. Analysts pointed to China’s accelerating transition toward electric vehicles as a major source of market volatility, given the reduced demand for internal combustion engine vehicles that rely heavily on platinum-group metals in catalytic converters. Electric vehicles are expected to account for roughly 40% of China’s light-vehicle production this year, surpassing conventional combustion-engine vehicles for the first time. Traditional vehicles are projected to represent 36% of production, while hybrids account for 24%. Production of internal combustion vehicles in China has already fallen to approximately 14 million units in 2025, down from 21 million in 2020. By contrast, the transition to electric vehicles remains slower in Europe and the United States, particularly after Washington scaled back some of its earlier electrification initiatives. Weak jewelry demand in China Demand for platinum jewelry has also slowed, especially in China, where elevated inventories accumulated during the manufacturing boom of mid-2025 continue to pressure the market. Although some of those inventories have already been recycled, retailers still hold large stockpiles while consumer demand remains weak, raising the risk of a significant contraction in Chinese jewelry manufacturing volumes this year. Energy costs threaten South African production Despite uncertainty surrounding global demand, Bank of America believes supply-side risks could become increasingly important. The bank noted that ongoing Middle East tensions, higher energy prices, and inflationary pressures could negatively affect production, particularly in South Africa, one of the world's largest producers of platinum-group metals. South Africa relies heavily on imported oil, has limited domestic production capacity, and faces ongoing refining constraints, leaving its mining sector highly exposed to rising fuel costs. Diesel remains widely used across mining operations, transportation networks, and backup power generation, especially given the country's persistent electricity shortages. Diesel prices have surged since the conflict began, while state utility Eskom raised electricity tariffs by 8.76% beginning in April 2026, significantly increasing mining costs. In this context, Sibanye-Stillwater reported a 13% year-over-year increase in unit operating costs during the first quarter, citing persistent inflationary pressures, including higher labor and energy expenses. In trading on Wednesday, spot palladium rose 1.5% to $1,249 per ounce as of 16:14 GMT. Source： https://www.economies.com/commodities/palladium-news/palladium-attempts-to-recover-losses-as-bank-of-america-maintains-a-bullish-outlook-49044

SMM June 11 news: Metal market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.79%. SHFE aluminum edged up 0.02%, while SHFE lead and SHFE tin fell slightly. SHFE zinc fell 1.98%. SHFE nickel fell 0.72%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.73%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum contract rose 0.63%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.07%, hot-rolled coil edged up, stainless steel rose 0.17%, and rebar rose 0.19%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 0.44%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 2.34%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 0.81%. LME aluminum fell 1.09%, and LME lead fell 0.93%. LME zinc fell 2.19%. LME tin fell 0.34%. LME nickel fell 1.47%. Overnight, precious metals : Overnight, COMEX gold fell 4.49%, and COMEX silver fell 2.67%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 3.37%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.08%. Citibank expects that if the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz continues into this summer, global gold purchasing demand may shrink further, and gold prices may fall to $3,500 per ounce by September. Currently, Citibank has lowered its three-month gold price target from $4,300 per ounce to $4,000 per ounce. CITIC Securities pointed out that the US CPI for May was broadly in line with expectations, with high oil prices continuing to push up the overall inflation rate, while core inflation was mild. CITIC Securities believes the risk of a second round of US inflation is low, and the overall CPI YoY may have peaked for this cycle. It is expected to gradually decline slowly until September, then rebound slightly, before pulling back rapidly in March next year. The US Fed is expected to keep its target rate unchanged this year, and the interest rate hike expectations priced in the derivatives market have room to be revised downwards. The key focus of next week's Fed meeting will be the new Chair, Mr. Walsh's, remarks on the current inflation situation and interest rate levels. For US Treasuries, trading opportunities are more suitable than allocation opportunities now, and short-term bonds are better than long-term bonds. The US dollar index finds support, and gold prices may need to wait for accommodative expectations to restart before breaking out of their predicament. As of 7:19 AM on June 11, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic: [Zheng Zhajie: Fully implement the "AI+" initiative and deeply address "involution-style" competition] On June 10, Zheng Zhajie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired an expert symposium on the economic situation, exchanging views with Cai Fang, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhang Li, President of the CCID Research Institute, and chief economists from some domestic and international securities firms, including BOC International. The discussion focused on analyzing and assessing the current economic situation, continuously expanding domestic demand, promoting high-level sci-tech self-reliance and strength and autonomous control of the industry chain, and stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations. The attending experts' views, opinions, and suggestions were heard. Zheng Zhajie stated that the NDRC would earnestly implement the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council by making best use of its macro policies and leveraging the integrated effects of existing and incremental policies; strengthening the planning and construction of water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, new-generation communication networks, urban underground pipeline networks, and logistics networks to promote a close integration of investment in objects and investment in people, and effectively implementing the consumer goods trade-in policy; accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system and fully implementing the "AI+" initiative; continuously strengthening reform and innovation to deeply advance the construction of a unified national market and deeply address "involution-style" competition; enhancing energy and resource security levels and implementing a comprehensive conservation strategy; effectively ensuring the basic wellbeing of the people and making every effort to promote employment for key groups; at the same time, promptly researching and reserving a batch of targeted and highly operational policy tools, ready to be introduced and implemented as needed, to continuously consolidate the foundation for sustained and stable economic improvement. It is hoped that the experts would provide more suggestions to contribute their wisdom and strength to promoting high-quality development. [Ministry of Commerce and seven other units issue "Several Measures to Promote the Integrated Development of Railways and Tourism and Expand Service Consumption"] It is proposed to strengthen the coordination and alignment of railway and tourism planning. Planning guidance should be enhanced. Compiling railway-related plans should encompass the developmental needs of the tourism industry, site planning and layout must be effectively executed, and the accessibility and convenience of tourism resources should be elevated. The compilation of tourism-related plans should coordinate the layout and development of cultural tourism resources and railway resources, promoting the integrated and mutually reinforcing development of railways and tourism. [NRDC Price Cost and Certification Center Conducts Survey at SPIC] On June 3, Cheng Gang, Deputy Director of the Price Cost and Certification Center of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), led a team to conduct a survey at State Power Investment Corporation Limited (SPIC). The two sides exchanged views on the operation of wind power and PV projects, as well as the development of the hydrogen-based energy industry. (NDRC Price Cost and Certification Center) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.09%, closing at 100.04. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% YoY in May, the highest level since early 2023 and in line with market expectations. This marked the first time in three years that CPI inflation breached the 4% mark. The main factor driving the overall inflation higher was the rise in energy prices triggered by the Iran war. The 0.5% MoM rise matched expectations and was slightly lower than the previous 0.6%. "New Fed wire" Nick Timiraos' analysis pointed out that on a three-month annualized basis, the overall CPI increase in May was as high as 8.2% ; the overall CPI rose 0.47% MoM, with an annualized rate of approximately 5.8%, pushing the 12-month increase to 4.2%, a three-year high. Core CPI rose 2.9% YoY in May , matching expectations and edging up from the previous 2.8%; the MoM increase was 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3% and a significant slowdown from the previous 0.4%. Core inflation was mild, but US real wages have already seen their first YoY negative growth since April 2023, worsening the situation for consumers. Furthermore, multiple Wall Street institutions believe that while this CPI data reinforces the "higher for longer" logic, it is not enough to trigger an interest rate hike. Market bets on the Fed resuming rate hikes have risen, but mainstream institutions still tend to believe the Fed will stay on hold in the coming months. (Wall Street Insights) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in June is 98.4%, with a 1.6% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. The probability for the Fed to keep rates unchanged through July is 89.1%, with a 9.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 1.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stated on Wednesday that BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has been hospitalized and is expected to remain in hospital for about two weeks, therefore he will miss the monetary policy meeting on June 15-16 but is expected to attend the meeting on July 30-31. BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will chair the June 15-16 monetary policy meeting, and Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will hold a press conference after the June meeting. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today's releases include the Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate up to June 11, the Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Rate up to June 11, the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 6, and the US May PPI YoY and MoM rates. Also, focus on: the Ministry of Commerce holds its second routine press conference of June; the ECB announces its interest rate decision; ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with US crude up 4.14% and Brent crude up 3.88%. The Iran situation escalated abruptly, causing crude oil prices to surge. Additionally, a sharp decline in Cushing crude oil inventories and significant withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) once fueled an acceleration in the rise of oil prices. Trump subsequently stated on social media that over 100 million barrels of crude oil are currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which slightly capped the gains. (Wall Street Insights) The US Department of Energy (DOE) stated on Wednesday local time that the US is seeking to lend up to 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to energy companies to help lower fuel prices. This plan is part of the previous agreement to release 172 million barrels from the SPR. To date, the US has lent approximately 133 million barrels of crude oil under this agreement. In March, after the US and Israel launched the war on Iran on February 28, the US reached an agreement with about 30 member countries of the International Energy Agency to jointly release approximately 400 million barrels of strategic reserves to help stabilize the international oil market. Currently, the US SPR inventory stands at 349.2 million barrels, the lowest level since August 2023. Enterprises borrowing crude oil must return an equivalent amount of crude oil plus pay a premium of up to 24% in extra crude oil. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM June 10 news: Metal markets: The domestic base metals market mostly fell overnight. SHFE copper fell 0.34%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.67%, and SHFE lead fell 0.4%. SHFE zinc rose 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 1.1%. SHFE nickel fell 1.34%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.68%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract closed flat at 22,995 yuan/mt. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance, with iron ore up 0.26%, HRC flat at 3,360 yuan/mt, stainless steel down 0.69%, and rebar up 0.19%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 0.58%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 0.38%. On the overseas metals market overnight, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.23%. LME aluminum fell 2.08%, and LME lead fell 0.38%. LME zinc rose 0.33%. LME tin rose 0.16%. LME nickel fell 2.2%. Overnight precious metals market : Overnight COMEX gold fell 1.8%, and COMEX silver fell 4.56%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 1.51%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract fell 4.06%. Bob Haberkorn, Senior Market Strategist at RJO Futures, stated: "Traders are slightly uneasy about the current market situation... A broad risk-off mode has taken hold across all markets. I believe this risk-off sentiment is what drove gold prices down." Haberkorn added: "Until the US Fed provides clearer guidance, gold and silver prices remain under downward pressure." (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at Saxo Bank stated that gold futures prices closed below their 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, following last Friday's non-farm payrolls report and a broad deterioration in risk sentiment that also weighed on stock markets. The combination of a resilient US economy and rising inflation expectations is creating a challenging environment for gold, overshadowing long-term supportive factors such as central bank purchases, fiscal concerns, and reserve diversification. (Jinshi Data APP) As of 7:19 on June 10, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Guangdong: Over 3 million charging facilities to be built province-wide by the end of 2027, meeting the charging demand of more than 8 million NEVs] The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission and other departments recently issued the "Guangdong Province EV Charging Facility High-Quality Development Action Plan." The plan proposes to build a high-quality charging facility system where super-charging, fast charging, and slow charging complement each other by continuously innovating application scenarios, improving charging networks, enhancing charging efficiency, optimizing service quality, and innovating the industrial ecosystem. This aims to promote the balanced development of charging facilities in eastern, western, and northern Guangdong alongside the Pearl River Delta region, and facilitate the wider purchase and use of EVs. By the end of 2027, the province will have cumulatively built over 3 million charging facilities to meet the charging demand of more than 8 million NEVs; the province will achieve "super-charging coverage in every county," with the number of super-charging stations no fewer than the number of gas stations. (Jinshi Data APP) [CPCA: Retail sales in China's domestic narrow PV market reached 1.51 million units in May 2026] According to the latest retail sales statistics from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), retail sales in China's domestic narrow passenger vehicle (PV) market reached 1.51 million units in May 2026, down 22.1% YoY, but up 9.2% MoM. Cumulative sales from January to May totaled 7.099 million units, down 19.5% YoY. US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.07% to 99.95. Data: The weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending May 23 was 29,000, compared to the previous figure of 35,750. Jay Woods, Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, stated that the US May headline CPI YoY rate is expected to jump from 3.8% to 4.2%, which would be the highest level since March 2023. But the real concern isn't the headline number; it's the potentially entrenched "sticky" items like housing, insurance, and services. These categories could keep inflation persistently above the US Fed's comfort zone, as they may remain elevated for longer. Woods noted that high inflation driven by gasoline is typically less worrying, whereas sustained price increases in housing and services could be a trend that takes time to reverse. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 98.2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 1.8%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged through July is 85.8%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point hike at 12.6% and a cumulative 25 basis point cut at 1.6%. (Jinshi Data APP) China Securities pointed out that in the short term, the probability of a US Fed interest rate hike remains low, and market concerns about Fed tightening are mainly at the expectations level, based on assumptions of sticky domestic US inflation and a persistently hot job market. CME FedWatch data indicates that the most likely timing for a Fed rate hike expected by markets outside China begins in late October 2026. The current tightening of global liquidity and market adjustments represent a front-running reaction to expectations of a Q4 Fed rate hike. Regarding the domestic bond market, increased expectations for Fed tightening are not bearish. China's bond market is relatively independent and has a small correlation with US Treasuries. Furthermore, given ample domestic liquidity, the anticipated tightening of overseas liquidity and adjustments in equity markets could potentially drive capital flows into the bond market, supporting the current level of long-term bonds. Subsequently, China's 10-year government bond yield is expected to continue oscillating around the 1.70% level; a break below 1.70% still requires the emergence of new incremental information from domestic sources. Data: Today will see the release of China's May CPI YoY, the US May unadjusted CPI YoY, the US May seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, the US May seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, the US May unadjusted core CPI YoY, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of June 10, and China's May M2 money supply YoY (date TBD), among other data points. Also, attention should be paid to: the Bank of Canada's announcement of its interest rate decision; and the monetary policy press conference held by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with US crude oil down 2.85% and Brent crude oil down 2.03%. Oil prices were volatile on Tuesday. Trump stated earlier in the day that negotiations with Iran were "in the final stages of a very, very good deal," pushing Brent crude lower. However, Trump subsequently posted on social media stating that Iran had shot down a US Apache helicopter patrolling the Strait of Hormuz and declared "the US must respond," causing oil prices to jump immediately. Iranian officials further warned afterward that "foreign military forces near Iran face risks," briefly lifting oil prices further. Despite this, crude oil closed lower. (Wall Street CN) Data: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 5 fell by 9.119 million barrels, compared to an expected draw of 3.421 million barrels, with the prior figure showing a draw of 6.757 million barrels. The US API gasoline inventory for the week ending June 5 fell by 1.191 million barrels, compared to an expected draw of 614,000 barrels, with the prior figure showing a build of 3.454 million barrels. (Jinshi Data APP) The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated on Tuesday local time that due to crude oil production losses exceeding 11 million barrels per day in the Middle East caused by the Iran war, major consumer nations are drawing down inventories to bridge supply shortfalls at an unprecedented rate. Consequently, oil inventories among OECD members are heading toward their lowest levels since at least 2003. The EIA stated that under its current assumptions, where maritime shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels before the beginning of 2027, total oil inventories held by OECD member nations will fall to just under 2.3 billion barrels by December. (Jinshi Data APP)

South America remains the cornerstone of global copper supply, with Chile and Peru collectively accounting for more than one-third of global mined copper production. As electrification, grid modernisation, renewable energy deployment and AI-driven infrastructure investment continue to reinforce long-term copper demand growth, policy developments across the region are becoming increasingly important determinants of future supply availability.

Jun 05, 2026 - 12:31 AM Rising inflation pressures due to the ongoing war in Iran mean investors will have to wait a little longer for gold to break out of its current consolidation phase, according to Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank. Fritsch noted that gold’s price action since the war started has been counterintuitive to fundamental market beliefs. The precious metal, traditionally seen as an inflation hedge, has fallen even as the global energy crisis pushes consumer prices higher. At the same time, despite the chaos in the Middle East, gold has been unable to attract a safe-haven bid. However, Fritsch explained that the gold market is currently struggling as market expectations around U.S. monetary policy have shifted dramatically since the Iran conflict began. “Before the start of the Iran war, market participants had expected the Fed to cut interest rates by around 50 basis points this year. Since the start of the war and the resulting rise in oil prices, there has been a noticeable shift in interest rate expectations. Fed Funds futures currently imply a US key interest rate of around 3.8% at the end of the year. With an effective Fed rate of just over 3.6%, the market therefore expects the Fed to raise interest rates later this year. A 25-basis-point rate hike is fully priced in by spring 2027,” he said. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see more than a 50% chance of a rate hike in December. The threat of rising interest rates is increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset. In this environment, Commerzbank has adjusted its year-end price target. The German bank sees gold prices ending the year at around $4,800 an ounce, down from its initial target of $5,000. “This implies some upside potential for the coming months, as our new base-case scenario envisages a two-month transition period, followed by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a decline in Brent oil prices, which should reverse the current expectations of interest rate hikes,” Fritsch said. The updated outlook comes as gold prices continue to struggle below $4,500 an ounce. Spot gold was last trading at $4,483.95 an ounce, up 1.11% on the day. However, Commerzbank’s updated target suggests the market could see an 8% rally from current prices by year-end. Fritsch said there is still potential for gold, as Commerzbank does not expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates this year. The bank’s economists forecast that rates will remain unchanged and that the next move is still likely to be a cut. However, Fritsch said the next rate cut is not expected until at least the second quarter of 2027. “We therefore maintain our price forecast of USD 5,200 per troy ounce for the end of 2027,” he said. “The structural factors supporting gold remain entirely intact. These include eroding confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency, which is likely to lead to further gold purchases by central banks. Investor interest in gold is also likely to remain high. This is supported by the already high and rapidly rising levels of government debt, which are leading to monetary policy that is too loose when measured against inflation.” Along with its revised gold forecast, Fritsch has also downgraded his silver outlook. Commerzbank expects silver prices to end the year at around $80 an ounce. “In addition to the lowered gold price forecast, weaker industrial demand for silver also points to a slightly lower silver price. According to the latest assessment by the Silver Institute, industrial demand is set to decline for the second consecutive year, falling to a four-year low. Nevertheless, the silver market remains tight, which is why we expect the silver price to rise in the coming year,” he said. Commerzbank projects silver prices to end 2027 at around $90 an ounce, down from its previous target of $95 an ounce. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-04/commerzbank-not-giving-metals-sees-4800oz-gold-80oz-silver-year-end

Gold prices have eased and ETF inflows slowed as investors rotated back into technology stocks despite geopolitical uncertainty.

5 June 2026 08:30 (UTC+04:00) The global gold market is currently navigating a fascinating paradox that challenges conventional financial logic. For several months, the precious metal has experienced a downward price trajectory, sparking intense debate among analysts and market observers about its near-term direction. At first glance, a prolonged decline might suggest a waning interest in the asset or a fundamental shift away from its historic role in global finance. However, scratching beneath the surface of this downward trend reveals an entirely different underlying dynamic. The temporary softening of gold prices is not a sign of terminal weakness; rather, it represents a structural consolidation that, under the right conditions, is laying the groundwork for a substantial and potentially rapid upward reversal. To understand why a reversal is highly probable, one must look at the unprecedented level of institutional support currently stabilizing the market. As revealed in recent reports by the World Gold Council, sovereign banking institutions around the world are aggressively utilizing this period of depressed prices to expand their physical reserves. Specifically, global central banks net purchased 17 tons of gold in April 2026, registering the highest monthly purchasing pace since December 2024. When major institutional buyers like the central banks of Poland, China, and the Czech Republic consistently step into the market during price dips, they establish what technical analysts refer to as a hard price floor. This institutional baseline aligns with a broader multi-year trend, as central banks in Eastern Europe and Asia have demonstrated sustained dynamics over the last three years, purchasing a steady average of 12 and 11 tons of the precious metal per month, respectively. This massive, coordinated buying power absorbs excess supply and prevents a broader market collapse. In essence, these institutions are treating the current multi-month decline as a premium commercial window, accumulating significant volume at a discount. This steady institutional accumulation ensures that the structural demand for the metal remains exceptionally tight, meaning that any sudden shift in broader investor sentiment could quickly trigger a supply squeeze, driving prices sharply upward. Beyond the physical supply-and-demand mechanics, the future trajectory of gold is intimately tied to the evolving monetary policy of global financial hubs, particularly the United States Federal Reserve. The primary catalyst behind the recent months of downward pressure has been the resilience of global interest rates and the accompanying strength of major fiat currencies. Because gold is a non-yielding asset—meaning it does not pay a monthly dividend or fixed interest—high-yielding government bonds naturally become more attractive to short-term investors when interest rates remain elevated. However, this macroeconomic pressure is cyclical, not permanent. As global inflationary pressures eventually cool or as economic growth indicators begin to signal a broader slowdown, central banks will inevitably face mounting pressure to pivot toward rate cuts. The moment the monetary tide turns and borrowing costs begin to decrease, the opportunity cost of holding physical assets falls away. This shift historically causes a rapid capital reallocation, as institutional funds migrate out of cooling fixed-income securities and back into hard assets, driving a powerful upward rally. Simultaneously, the global landscape is defined by an accumulation of systemic vulnerabilities and geopolitical friction points that cannot be ignored. From complex supply chain vulnerabilities to shifting energy corridors and regional trade disputes, the modern global economy is operating under a cloud of persistent uncertainty. In periods of structural calm, investors frequently favor riskier, high-yielding equity markets, causing defensive assets to drift downward. Yet, history demonstrates that this calm can be deceptive. A sudden escalation in regional conflicts, an unexpected corporate debt default, or a sharp contraction in global manufacturing figures can instantly shift market psychology from optimism to extreme risk aversion. When these systemic shocks occur, the broader investing public quickly remembers the unique risk-mitigation properties of physical metals, leading to a surge in safe-haven buying that can reverse months of price declines in a matter of days. From a technical and psychological standpoint, a multi-month decline is also a healthy and necessary phase within a long-term cyclical market. No financial asset moves upward in a straight line indefinitely. After reaching historic peaks in previous cycles, a period of profit-taking and price correction is standard market behavior. This cooling-off period flushes out speculative, short-term leverage and transfers ownership into the hands of disciplined, long-term investors who are less likely to sell during bouts of volatility. Major international investment banking firms continue to maintain a highly constructive long-term outlook on the metal precisely because they recognize this healthy structural resetting. The longer the price consolidates within this current lower range, the more energy it gathers for its next directional move. Crucially, if the current buying process persists—whereby global central banks maintain their recent momentum of adding 17 tons of gold monthly, echoing the strongest purchasing pace since December 2024, alongside Eastern European and Asian central banks sustaining their three-year average of 12 and 11 tons per month—this relentless institutional drain on global supply makes a decisive upward price breakout highly probable rather than just speculative. Therefore, if the current downward trend continues to persist, it should not be viewed as a sign of permanent decay but rather as a coiled spring, building the fundamental momentum necessary to launch a powerful and sustained upward breakout once the macroeconomic catalysts align. Source： https://www.azernews.az/analysis/259317.html

Jun 05, 2026, 02:40 AM Import duty hike and volatile prices keep Indian gold demand subdued. China premiums narrow as cautious sentiment weighs on physical buying. Analysts warn smuggling risk rises as domestic discounts widen sharply. India’s gold demand remains subdued as buyers stay cautious amid volatile prices and higher import duties, with premiums narrowing in China as well. Analysts warn that regulatory tightening and inflation risks could keep consumption weak through 2026. Domestic gold prices were trading around INR 158,400 per 10 grams on Friday. India is one of the largest consumers of gold in the world. Subdued demand in India Indian gold demand has slowed, with buyers hesitant due to volatile prices and elevated import duties, according to a Reuters report . Traders said consumers are reluctant to commit to purchases, particularly after the government raised the import duty to 15% in May, the steepest increase on record. “Demand is very weak. People are waiting for prices to stabilize,” one Mumbai-based dealer told Reuters. The World Gold Council (WGC) noted in its May update that jewellery and bar-and-coin demand could decline by 50–60 tonnes (10% year-on-year) in 2026 due to the duty hike. Domestic prices are trading at a deep discount to landed prices, widening from about $14/oz before the hike to nearly $150/oz afterwards, as ample supply and profit-taking weighed on premiums. Regulatory tightening and market impact The duty hike was part of broader measures aimed at conserving foreign exchange reserves amid geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening rupee. Banks paused bullion imports for over a month earlier this year due to delays in government notifications, further disrupting supply. Large chain jewellers reported panic buying immediately after the duty announcement but expect slower sales ahead. Smaller retailers, already pressured by high prices, are struggling with reduced volumes and margins. China premiums narrow The premiums in China, the world’s top consumer, have narrowed, reflecting cautious sentiment. Buyers are hesitant as global prices remain volatile, and local demand has softened. This trend mirrors India’s slowdown, suggesting broader regional weakness in physical gold consumption. The WGC’s May commentary noted that gold fell 1% in May, finishing at $4,546/oz, as positive risk sentiment and ETF outflows weighed on prices. Analysts warned that the Federal Reserve may need to hike rates later this year as inflation pressures mount, which could prolong headwinds for gold. “Gold is vulnerable, perched on its 200-day moving average, in what looks like a declining channel,” the WGC said. Smuggling concerns and outlook Past trends suggest that higher import duties increase unofficial inflows. After the 2013 duty hike, smuggled gold rose sevenfold within a year. A similar pattern was seen after the 2022 hike to 15%, when unofficial imports surged from 17 tonnes to nearly 50 tonnes. Analysts caution that the latest increase could again encourage smuggling, widening the domestic–international price gap. India’s gold demand is expected to remain muted in the near term, with jewellery purchases subdued outside of weddings and festivals. Investment demand is more sensitive to duty changes and could decline further if inflation persists. Globally, ETF flows remain lacklustre, and the possibility of Fed rate hikes poses additional risks. For now, the market is caught between regulatory tightening, volatile prices, and cautious consumers. Unless prices stabilize and policy pressures ease, India’s gold demand is likely to stay weak through the rest of 2026, with broader implications for global bullion trade. Source： https://invezz.com/news/2026/06/05/india-gold-demand-weakens-as-soaring-prices-keep-buyers-on-the-sidelines/

June 4, 2026 The price of gold is taking a breather. With the slide below $4,500 per ounce, the precious metal is currently testing its 200-day moving average—a crucial technical support level. This period of weakness has been triggered by renewed concerns over interest rates. But Tom Winmill, portfolio manager of the Midas Discovery Fund , warns against being blinded by short-term volatility. In an interview with Kitco News, he emphasized: The structural drivers for gold and select mining stocks remain intact. Interest Rate Concerns vs. Fundamental Strength Growing inflation fears are fueling market expectations of further interest rate hikes by year-end. This naturally weighs on interest-free gold. Nevertheless, Winmill does not view the current pullback to the 200-day line as a break in the upward trend. His confidence is based on robust fundamentals, above all the persistently high demand from central banks. Added to this are profound changes in the global monetary landscape. The so-called “weaponization” of the U.S. dollar and efforts toward de-dollarization are increasingly eroding the greenback’s status as the undisputed reserve currency. A dollar that remains weak in the long term would provide additional tailwinds for the gold price. The Decisive Factor: Real Interest Rates Winmill sees another key argument in favor of gold in the interplay between inflation and economic growth. While central banks appear rhetorically determined to combat inflation, Winmill doubts they will tighten the reins enough to risk a deep recession. The result: Real interest rates are likely to remain low or even fall further. Historically, this environment of declining holding costs has been an ideal breeding ground for tangible assets. Gold benefits twice in this scenario—as a classic safe haven in uncertain times and due to the favorable real yield environment. Geopolitical risks and persistent inflationary pressures further support this thesis. Mining Stocks: Solid Balance Sheets Instead of Cost Panic The weak gold price and rising costs have also left their mark on mining stocks. However, Winmill often considers concerns about profitability to be exaggerated. Underground operations, in particular, are less dependent on fuel costs and have long since positioned themselves with alternative energies. According to Winmill, the industry is fundamentally healthier than ever: record free cash flow, strengthened balance sheets, and some of the strongest results in recent years. While rising royalties, higher wages, and financing costs can squeeze margins, the starting point is significantly better than in previous cycles. Furthermore, the pressure to engage in expensive acquisitions has eased, as higher gold prices have already boosted the value of existing reserves. For investors, the bottom line is this: the gold bull market is not over; it is merely taking a breather. The lowest point in the valuation cycle for mining stocks is likely behind us. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/focus-on-gold-structural-strength-despite-headwinds-from-interest-rate-fears