Published：May 13, 2026 The World Bank recently revised its precious metals outlook for 2026. The group now anticipates this basket of commodities to rise collectively by 42% in 2026. This represents a significant upward shift in projections, primarily fueled by the escalating Middle East conflict, rampant energy supply disruptions, dampened global growth, and heightened financial uncertainty. Precious Metals Lead the Commodity Complex In January 2026, the World Bank issued a commodities report that predicted a positive jump in its precious metals index for the year. This grouping holds gold, silver, and platinum, notably excluding palladium. Within Q1 alone, each asset in this basket of precious metals soared above the group’s expectations. Furthermore, each of these metals climbed to record highs in the early innings of the year. Gold prices shot up beyond $5,400/oz. Silver exploded to $116/oz. Platinum prices jumped to $2,770/oz. In late April, the World Bank issued another commodities report raising its precious metals outlook. Now, the group projects this collection of metals will surge by 42% throughout 2026, compared to the averages in 2025. Crucially, precious metals are projected to outperform nearly all other commodities, including base metals, fertilizer, and even energy prices. The global bank’s forecasts position silver as the highest-performing metal in 2026, with platinum as a close second. While gold is also expected to rise significantly, the yellow metal’s already elevated value means smaller percentage gains. Why the World Bank Expects Precious Metals to Rise A handful of long-running and newly forming factors are propelling the World Bank’s precious metals predictions higher for 2026. This fuel is a combination of geopolitical, macroeconomic, and fiscal policy issues: 1. Geopolitical Safe-Haven Demand Among the more pressing and immediate tailwinds for precious metals is war in Iran , which has spilt over into the broader Middle East region. The conflict has effectively choked off the Hormuz Strait, where nearly 20% of the world’s oil flows through. Drone and artillery attacks on various energy installations throughout the Gulf States further complicate the energy crisis. In response, investors have been actively rotating into safe-haven assets, such as precious metals, to offset the economically damaging effects of the oil shock and broader energy shortage. Historically, gold has consistently shown a tendency to perform well during periods of geopolitical turmoil and a loss of confidence in fiat systems. 2. Inflationary Energy Shock March marked the single largest inflation-adjusted quarterly rise in oil since 1988, per the Energy Information Administration . Throughout Q1, Brent crude nearly doubled, leaping from $61 to $118 per barrel. In March alone, liquid natural gas costs rose by 59% in European markets and by 94% in Asia. This collective surge in energy prices threatens to drive global inflation higher as loftier fuel costs drive up prices in virtually all sectors. The World Bank revised its inflation forecasts for Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) to a staggering 5.1%. Once again, precious metals stand to gain, especially gold, which has a proven track record going back centuries for keeping pace with inflation . 3. Market Volatility & Policy Uncertainty The international financial institution further warns that the combination of geopolitical instability and rising inflation threatens to undermine market confidence and fiscal policy direction. Mainstream assets heavily tied to fiat currencies tend to wane during periods of high uncertainty, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets . Gold demand is likely to increase from central banks, major financial institutions, and retail investors as traditional assets struggle. 4. Slowing Growth & Stagflation Risks At the same time, EMDE inflation is expected to rise, and growth across most economies is projected to fall, creating a one-two punch of economic hardship. This trend is playing out in advanced economies, too, with the U.S. gross domestic product hitting only 0.7% in Q4 2025 . The economy recovered slightly in Q1 2026, reaching 2%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis , but it remains far from ideal levels. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis The alarming trifecta of slowing growth, rising inflation, and soaring commodity prices has the World Bank cautioning about the elevated odds of stagflation . In this challenging economic climate, all the tailwinds for precious metals would only intensify. Precious Metals Forecasts Remain Elevated Although precious metals have moderated since their early-year highs, experts across various sectors remain bullish on the upward potential of these commodities. Most notably, 2026 gold price forecasts remain above $6,000/oz. Meanwhile, silver price predictions for the year sit near $105/oz. These positive expectations fall right in line with the World Bank’s upward revision of its earlier predictions, signaling a strong potential for further growth among these key precious metals. Navigate Global Turmoil with Our Free Precious Metals Guide If you’re interested in learning more about how you can strategically position your portfolio to take advantage of these precious metals, grab a FREE copy of our Precious Metals Investment Guide . It covers everything you need to know about buying, holding, and managing physical gold and silver to protect your wealth. Source： https://www.sbcgold.com/blog/world-bank-sees-precious-metals-surging-42-in-2026-amid-global-turmoil/

Gold has been pulled in two directions in recent weeks. On one side, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have strengthened the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - Gold's appeal as it draws support from the widening conflict in the Middle East is expected to ​remain intact even if some investors have favoured the dollar as their preferred safe haven, traders and analysts said.

Feb 25 (Reuters) - JP Morgan raised its long-term forecast for gold prices to $4,500 an ounce on Wednesday while keeping its 2026 year-end forecast at $6,300.

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver continue to struggle as investors come to grips with the broad market collapse on Friday. Although prices have room to fall further, commodity analysts at Société Générale still see asymmetric upside risk through the year.

According to Wells Fargo's mid-2025 outlook report, precious metals will continue to benefit from geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties, with gold prices expected to hit a record high of $3,600 per ounce in 2026. Analysts noted in the report that the significant correction in commodity prices presents attractive opportunities later this year and into 2026. Additionally, they anticipate that improvements in the US economic conditions later in 2025 will drive growth in commodity demand. Wells Fargo recommends that investors pivot to sectors that may benefit from an improving macro environment, such as energy or precious metals, and adjust their portfolios to hedge against policy and geopolitical uncertainties. Exercise patience Wells Fargo emphasized in the report that rapid changes in economic policies over the past few months have disrupted investors and capital markets. Since the 2024 US elections, uncertainty surrounding US economic policies has continued to escalate, primarily due to tariff volatility, with recent uncertainties surpassing those during the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysts highlighted that these uncertainties are expected to continue driving gold prices higher over the next two years, as private investors and global central banks will continue to purchase gold. By 2026, central banks alone are expected to account for 21% of global gold demand. Meanwhile, US short-term interest rates are expected to decline in 2026, and the US dollar is also expected to rebound mildly, which will further strengthen the upward trend in precious metal prices. However, analysts also caution that investor optimism about precious metals' rise has reached levels historically preceding significant corrections, leading them to prefer exercising patience and waiting for price dips before buying. The bank expects gold prices to pull back slightly to a range of $3,000 to $3,200 by the end of this year, with the outlook for gold prices rising to $3,600 per ounce by the end of 2026. Analysts also recommend that investors focus on quality factors rather than speculative assets and diversify their portfolios through commodities like precious metals, which may outperform broader market indices. Chantelle Schieven, Managing Director of Capitalight Research, also believes that due to the resilience of the US economy and labour market, gold prices may stagnate throughout the summer but will oscillate near high levels. However, considering the inflationary impact of tariffs, she expects the US to face stagflation risks over the next two years, which will support gold prices.

On Monday's opening, international gold prices unsurprisingly hit a new historical high... Market data shows that spot gold prices had already risen above $3,380 during the early Asian session on Monday, while New York futures gold even touched a high of $3,395, just a step away from the $3,400 mark. It can be said that many precious metal investors have become somewhat "numb" to the continuous new highs in gold prices recently. From around $2,000 at the beginning of last year to now approaching the $3,400 milestone, almost all market participants have been amazed by the strong upward momentum of gold prices. However, if someone tells you that the speed of this gold bull market may not yet be "historic," what would you think? Macro strategist Simon White revisited a 45-year-old experience over the weekend and compared it to the current gold market situation. White stated that compared to the late 1970s, the recent rise in gold still pales in comparison—since the beginning of 2024, gold prices have increased by over 60%. In the bull market 45 years ago, gold tripled or quadrupled in just one year. White pointed out that the gold bull market at that time was driven by multiple factors: The US experienced a decade of severe inflation, and the US Fed began to lose market trust. Most critically, the US terminated the convertibility between the US dollar and gold in the early 1970s. On August 15, 1971, Nixon announced the implementation of the "New Economic Policy," ceasing the exchange of non-reserve currency dollars at $35 per ounce, along with other economic policy adjustments, which triggered the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Investors' confidence in paper currency collapsed, and the demand for gold as an inflation-resistant "hard currency" surged. White believes these factors remain relevant today: US inflation persists stubbornly (though not as high as in the late 1970s), and while the US Fed has not repeated the credibility crisis of the Paul Volcker era, its independence is increasingly being severely eroded and may be further damaged in the future. Last week, US President Trump had already fiercely criticized Fed Chairman Powell three times on social media, with unprecedented severity in his language. White stated that although there has been no move like Nixon's closing of the gold exchange window, Trump has essentially altered the convertibility of the US dollar as a "stable asset free from political intervention." White cited that over the past three years, global US dollar-denominated reserve assets have decreased by $450 billion, while gold reserve assets have increased by over $700 billion. White noted that although the current rise in gold may not match that of 1979/80, it clearly reminds the world—bubbles can even surpass the most wildly optimistic expectations. This may also be why many Wall Street investment banks have been continuously raising their gold price forecasts recently, even looking towards $4,000 or higher...

Around 16:00 Beijing time on Wednesday (April 16), just as the US pre-market session began, spot gold prices surpassed $3,300 per ounce and reached an intraday high of $3,317.82 around 16:18. This marked the third time in nearly five trading days that spot gold prices hit a record high, with daily gains exceeding 2%, peaking at 2.7%, and a cumulative increase of over 25% year-to-date. Meanwhile, the main US gold futures contract briefly rose to $3,334.2 per ounce, also setting a new high. Driven by the rise in gold, US gold mining stocks strengthened overall in pre-market trading, with Newmont Mining up 3.1%, Barrick Gold up over 3.6%, and Harmony Gold up more than 7.6%. Media analysis suggests that the escalating trade war has raised concerns about a global economic recession, and the unpredictability of tariffs announced by Washington has made it difficult for investors to establish long-term positions. In this environment, gold is seen as the most favored safe-haven asset. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, stated, "Factors such as the depreciation of the US dollar and ongoing safe-haven demand are favorable for gold." The day before, US President Trump signed an executive order to investigate national security risks posed by the US's reliance on imported critical minerals and their derivatives—a move seen as a prelude to imposing tariffs, which could further escalate the trade war. Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, noted, "Increased tariff uncertainty, a tougher US government stance, and tariffs affecting goods transported through third countries could harm global supply chains," all of which support gold prices. Brian Lan, Managing Director of GoldSilver Central in Singapore, said, "As long as uncertainty persists, gold will continue to strengthen." Traders are also betting that the US Fed will cut interest rates at least three times this year, with monetary easing generally benefiting precious metals. ANZ believes that safe-haven buying of gold has not yet accelerated. The bank raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,600 per ounce and its six-month gold price forecast to $3,500 per ounce. Last Friday, Goldman Sachs analysts predicted that gold prices would rise to $3,700 per ounce by the end of this year and reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.

Gold has emerged as the star asset of the year, with its price rising nearly 23% year-to-date, far surpassing other financial products. This upward trend is not the end, as Wall Street recently raised its target price for gold this year, pointing out that weak US economic data and escalating trade wars will continue to exacerbate economic uncertainty and drive investors into safe-haven assets. In a report released last Friday, Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 gold target price from $3,300 per ounce to $3,700, a significant increase of 12%, marking the most aggressive upward revision by the institution this year. In February, Goldman Sachs expected this year's gold price target to be $3,000, and by the end of March, it was revised upward for the second time to $3,300. Goldman Sachs noted that central bank demand for gold remains strong, and funds continue to flow into gold ETFs. Although some investors sold speculative positions in gold during the market's sharp decline earlier this month, the total open interest of gold ETFs is still rising due to concerns about an economic recession, and physical demand for gold in Asia also supports the price. In addition to Goldman Sachs, UBS also continued to raise its gold price forecast, with a target price of $3,500 per ounce. It pointed out that declining demand for US Treasuries and the US dollar will drive the gold rally to continue into next year and stabilize at high levels for a longer period. Joni Teves, an analyst at UBS, noted that in an environment of escalating tariff uncertainty, slowing economic growth, rising inflation, and lingering geopolitical risks, the rationale for increasing gold allocation is more compelling than ever. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank aims for gold to reach $3,700 per ounce by 2026. Previously, the bank's analysts had expected $2,900 per ounce. Weakness in the US economy Analysts are particularly focused on US macro data and emphasize that signs of a slowdown in the US economy were evident before the implementation of tariffs. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, over 497,000 people were laid off in the US in Q1, the highest for the quarter since 2009, a 93% increase from Q1 2024. Additionally, US manufacturing and service activities have shown weakness. The US ISM Manufacturing Index fell from 50.9 in December to 49 in March, while the Services Index dropped from 54 in December to 50.8. An index below 50 typically indicates an economic contraction. The Atlanta Fed's forecasting tool predicts that US Q1 GDP growth will be -2.4%. This figure may change, but GDP growth is likely to be significantly lower than the 3% seen last summer. Many economists have warned of the possibility of stagflation and are concerned that the US will fall into an economic recession. The safe-haven attributes of gold are being increasingly amplified in the current environment, especially after the trade war has diminished the appeal of US Treasuries and the US dollar.

Driven by the continuous rise in spot gold prices, Hong Kong-listed gold stocks maintained their strong performance. As of press time, Chifeng Gold (06693.HK), Tongguan Gold (00340.HK), Shandong Gold (01787.HK), and Zhaojin Gold (01818.HK) rose by 15.63%, 8.49%, 7.18%, and 6.95%, respectively. Note: The performance of gold stocks It is worth noting that gold stocks strengthened for the third consecutive trading day, with leading gains from Tongguan Gold and Chifeng Gold, which surged over 30% this week. On the news front, the US March unadjusted CPI annual rate fell to 2.4%, hitting a six-month low and below the market expectation of 2.6%. This data reinforced market expectations for the US Fed to initiate an interest rate cut in June, with the CME "Fed Watch" showing the market's pricing probability for a June rate cut rising to 98%. Meanwhile, the tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration have caused global supply chain disruptions, leading to a surge in investor demand for safe-haven assets, pushing COMEX gold futures prices above the $3,200/oz mark, with a cumulative increase of over 22% this year. Note: The trend of COMEX gold futures prices Institutions remain optimistic about the future performance of gold prices Deutsche Bank's latest report raised its gold price forecasts for this year and next to $3,139/oz and $3,700/oz, respectively, and expects prices to reach $3,350/oz in Q4. The bank emphasized that despite increased short-term market volatility, the bullish logic for gold remains solid, especially as central banks' gold purchasing demand surged from 10% in 2022 to 24%, far exceeding their demand for net bond issuance (7%-10%). BOC Securities analysis pointed out that the growth potential of global central bank gold reserves remains considerable, coupled with downward pressure on real interest rates, the value of gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to continue to rise. Carsten Menke, Head of Commodity Research at Julius Baer, noted that the "supply chain earthquake" triggered by tariff policies could severely impact US economic growth, and the value of gold as the ultimate safe-haven tool is being repriced.