Published: May 20, 2026 - 1:58 AM Updated: May 20, 2026 - 2:40 AM (Kitco News) – Central bank gold purchases have come in stronger than previous estimates so far in 2026, and updated projections have sovereign demand rising further in the second half of the year, according to commodity strategists at Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs analysts announced on Friday that they have revised their central bank gold demand model to account for gaps in official trade data. Back in March, the investment bank raised its nowcast of central bank purchases to about 50 tonnes per month on a 12-month moving average basis, up from 29 tonnes under its earlier methodology. The bank now expects central banks to average around 60 tonnes per month through 2026, supported by continued diversification demand amid geopolitical uncertainty. Goldman analysts said their previous estimates had underestimated sovereign demand since August 2025, when UK trade data began failing to fully capture gold outflows from London vaults, resulting in unrecorded sovereign buying. "Strong underlying interest in gold remains evident," Goldman said, citing its own central bank survey along with recent geopolitical developments as factors likely to support increased demand from both governments and private investors over time. Goldman Sachs reiterated its $5,400 per ounce gold price target for year-end 2026, but warned that bullion prices could still face near-term pressure if investors are compelled to sell liquid assets to raise cash during market stress. Back in late January, as gold prices were setting fresh all-time highs above $5,000 per ounce, Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 price target to $5,400 an ounce . At the time, Goldman analysts led by Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas wrote in a note that the upgraded forecast is based on their belief that private investors who bought gold as a hedge against macro policy risks will hold these positions through the end of the year. The analysts said that, unlike previous hedges which were tied to specific events – such as the November 2024 US election – gold positions taken to protect against risks such as fiscal sustainability are unlikely to be fully resolved this year and are therefore “stickier.” Emerging market central banks are “likely to continue the structural diversification of their reserves into gold,” the analysts said. The debasement trade is also prompting physical bullion purchases by high-net-worth families and investor call-option buying amid mounting concerns over the long-term monetary and fiscal policy trajectories in major economies, they noted. Risks to the updated forecast are “significantly skewed to the upside because private-sector investors may diversify further on lingering global policy uncertainty,” the analysts wrote. “That said, a sharp reduction in perceived risks around the long-run path for global fiscal/monetary policy would pose downside risk if it were to cause liquidation of macro policy hedges.” The diversification trend was already very much on Goldman’s radar heading into this year. In their 2026 Commodities Outlook published in late December , the investment bank wrote that gold is the best bet in the entire commodities complex, adding that if private investors join central banks in their diversification, the price could well exceed their base case – though they also advocated diversification across the commodities complex as well. “Even as gold remains our single favorite long commodity, we see a strong role for broader commodity length in strategic portfolio allocations,” they wrote. “The very high geographic concentration of commodity supply and the increasing geopolitical, trade, and AI competition has led to a more frequent use of commodity dominance as leverage. This raises the risk of supply disruptions, which underscores the insurance value of commodities.” “Equity-bond portfolios are not well-diversified when commodity supply losses drive both weaker growth and higher inflation as well as strong commodity returns,” the analysts warned. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-19/central-banks-are-buying-more-gold-expected-and-purchases-will-increase

Published：May 13, 2026 The World Bank recently revised its precious metals outlook for 2026. The group now anticipates this basket of commodities to rise collectively by 42% in 2026. This represents a significant upward shift in projections, primarily fueled by the escalating Middle East conflict, rampant energy supply disruptions, dampened global growth, and heightened financial uncertainty. Precious Metals Lead the Commodity Complex In January 2026, the World Bank issued a commodities report that predicted a positive jump in its precious metals index for the year. This grouping holds gold, silver, and platinum, notably excluding palladium. Within Q1 alone, each asset in this basket of precious metals soared above the group’s expectations. Furthermore, each of these metals climbed to record highs in the early innings of the year. Gold prices shot up beyond $5,400/oz. Silver exploded to $116/oz. Platinum prices jumped to $2,770/oz. In late April, the World Bank issued another commodities report raising its precious metals outlook. Now, the group projects this collection of metals will surge by 42% throughout 2026, compared to the averages in 2025. Crucially, precious metals are projected to outperform nearly all other commodities, including base metals, fertilizer, and even energy prices. The global bank’s forecasts position silver as the highest-performing metal in 2026, with platinum as a close second. While gold is also expected to rise significantly, the yellow metal’s already elevated value means smaller percentage gains. Why the World Bank Expects Precious Metals to Rise A handful of long-running and newly forming factors are propelling the World Bank’s precious metals predictions higher for 2026. This fuel is a combination of geopolitical, macroeconomic, and fiscal policy issues: 1. Geopolitical Safe-Haven Demand Among the more pressing and immediate tailwinds for precious metals is war in Iran , which has spilt over into the broader Middle East region. The conflict has effectively choked off the Hormuz Strait, where nearly 20% of the world’s oil flows through. Drone and artillery attacks on various energy installations throughout the Gulf States further complicate the energy crisis. In response, investors have been actively rotating into safe-haven assets, such as precious metals, to offset the economically damaging effects of the oil shock and broader energy shortage. Historically, gold has consistently shown a tendency to perform well during periods of geopolitical turmoil and a loss of confidence in fiat systems. 2. Inflationary Energy Shock March marked the single largest inflation-adjusted quarterly rise in oil since 1988, per the Energy Information Administration . Throughout Q1, Brent crude nearly doubled, leaping from $61 to $118 per barrel. In March alone, liquid natural gas costs rose by 59% in European markets and by 94% in Asia. This collective surge in energy prices threatens to drive global inflation higher as loftier fuel costs drive up prices in virtually all sectors. The World Bank revised its inflation forecasts for Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) to a staggering 5.1%. Once again, precious metals stand to gain, especially gold, which has a proven track record going back centuries for keeping pace with inflation . 3. Market Volatility & Policy Uncertainty The international financial institution further warns that the combination of geopolitical instability and rising inflation threatens to undermine market confidence and fiscal policy direction. Mainstream assets heavily tied to fiat currencies tend to wane during periods of high uncertainty, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets . Gold demand is likely to increase from central banks, major financial institutions, and retail investors as traditional assets struggle. 4. Slowing Growth & Stagflation Risks At the same time, EMDE inflation is expected to rise, and growth across most economies is projected to fall, creating a one-two punch of economic hardship. This trend is playing out in advanced economies, too, with the U.S. gross domestic product hitting only 0.7% in Q4 2025 . The economy recovered slightly in Q1 2026, reaching 2%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis , but it remains far from ideal levels. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis The alarming trifecta of slowing growth, rising inflation, and soaring commodity prices has the World Bank cautioning about the elevated odds of stagflation . In this challenging economic climate, all the tailwinds for precious metals would only intensify. Precious Metals Forecasts Remain Elevated Although precious metals have moderated since their early-year highs, experts across various sectors remain bullish on the upward potential of these commodities. Most notably, 2026 gold price forecasts remain above $6,000/oz. Meanwhile, silver price predictions for the year sit near $105/oz. These positive expectations fall right in line with the World Bank’s upward revision of its earlier predictions, signaling a strong potential for further growth among these key precious metals. Navigate Global Turmoil with Our Free Precious Metals Guide If you’re interested in learning more about how you can strategically position your portfolio to take advantage of these precious metals, grab a FREE copy of our Precious Metals Investment Guide . It covers everything you need to know about buying, holding, and managing physical gold and silver to protect your wealth. Source： https://www.sbcgold.com/blog/world-bank-sees-precious-metals-surging-42-in-2026-amid-global-turmoil/

Published: May 09, 2026 - 12:24 AM Updated: May 09, 2026 - 12:28 AM (Kitco News) - Gold prices continue to trade in elevated territory, holding new support above $4,700 an ounce, and some analysts have noted that downside risks for the precious metal remain limited as central bank demand continues to provide solid support. Specifically, the People’s Bank of China continues to see lower gold prices as a buying opportunity, as the central bank bought 8.1 tonnes of gold in April, following its 5-tonne purchase in March. China has been a dominant player in the gold market in recent years, increasing its official gold reserves for the last 18 consecutive months. At the same time, the pace of purchases is at its highest level since December 2024. Analysts have said that it is difficult to be short gold when the market continues to see consistent demand from the official sector. “Central bank purchases have been among the key drivers of gold demand for over four years,” said Barbara Lambrecht, Commodity Analyst at Commerzbank, in a note on Friday. “Despite the significant rise in prices, purchases by central banks and other public institutions in the first quarter totaled nearly 245 tonnes, according to the WGC, which was 3% higher than the previous year and even slightly above the five-year average.” Although China has been a key player in the gold market, it is certainly not alone. Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst, EMEA at the World Gold Council (WGC), said in a social media post on Thursday that updated reserve data showed the Czech National Bank bought 2 tonnes of gold last month. “Its YTD net purchases now total 8 tonnes, helping to lift total gold holdings to over 79 tonnes,” he said. Gopaul also said that according to preliminary estimates, Poland’s central bank bought another 13 tonnes of gold in April; however, he added that this cannot be confirmed until official reserve numbers are updated. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-08/china-and-other-central-banks-continue-buy-dip-gold

Gold has been pulled in two directions in recent weeks. On one side, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have strengthened the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

The correction in precious metal prices initially continued as expected over the course of this week.

Gold demand in China surged 67 percent year-on-year to a record 207t, considerably higher than the previous quarterly record of 155t in Q2 2013

Although recent conflicts in the Middle East have caused short-term volatility in gold prices, the medium- and long-term outlook remains positive as high geopolitical risks, increasing fiscal deficits, and continued buying by central banks will continue to support the price of the precious metal.

According to Reuters, trade sources said that Indian banks had suspended orders for importing gold and silver from suppliers outside China, with large quantities of precious metals stuck at customs , as the government had yet to issue a formal order authorizing the import of these precious metals. As India is the world's second-largest gold consumer and the largest silver buyer, with nearly all of its demand relying on ex-China purchases, the country could face a supply deficit without new imports. Weak Indian demand could weigh on global gold and silver prices , while narrowing the country's trade deficit and supporting the rupee. The rupee has been one of Asia's worst-performing currencies so far this year. Authorities had taken several measures to ease pressure on the rupee, including recently urging refiners to limit their spot dollar purchases. The suspension of gold and silver import orders by Indian banks from overseas suppliers, as well as the backlog of large quantities of precious metals at customs due to the lack of a formal government authorization order, had not been previously reported. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), under India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry, typically issues an order at the beginning of each fiscal year listing the banks authorized by the Reserve Bank of India to import gold and silver. The order previously issued in April 2025 was valid until the end of the last fiscal year (March 31), and banks were currently awaiting a new directive from the DGFT. The DGFT did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment. A bullion dealer at a private bank in Mumbai said that banks had expected the DGFT to issue the order in early April as in previous years, but no new announcement had been made so far, resulting in more than 5 mt of gold stuck and unable to clear customs . The dealer said the uncertainty over the timing of the DGFT order had led banks to suspend new import orders from overseas suppliers. The dealer requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media. Sources said that approximately 8 mt of imported silver was also stuck and unable to clear customs . Another bullion dealer said there was no point in placing new orders when previous shipments could not clear customs. According to data from the World Gold Council, India's gold demand fell to 710.9 mt in 2025, the lowest level in five years. Sources said that gold and silver inventory imported in previous months was being depleted, and the market was now relying on sales from exchange-traded funds, which were facing redemptions. Mehta Surendra, Secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, said: "Clear rules are needed to ensure imports resume." Mehta stated that without imports, a supply deficit would emerge, and premiums would rise after Akshaya Tritiya, India's second-largest gold-buying festival. A bullion dealer in Kolkata said that as the Iran conflict drove up prices of oil, natural gas, and fertilizers, India's import bill in April could rise, which might prompt the government to slow down gold and silver imports to control the trade deficit.

The gold price is currently in a field of tension that appears contradictory at first glance:

(Kitco News) – BRICS+ nations now hold 17.4% of global gold reserves, up from 11.2% in 2019, while the dollar’s share of global reserves fell to its lowest level since 1994 – and one BRICS member could well buy as much as all other countries combined, according to Michael Harris, technical analyst at EBC Financial Group.