[Price Review] This week (6.22-6.25), silver prices plunged sharply under pressure at highs. Amid multiple macro bearish factors, the price center of precious metals shifted down markedly WoW. The US Fed’s hawkish stance continued to ferment, and several foreign investment banks raised expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in their latest reports. Coupled with a stronger US dollar index, precious metals faced clear suppression. US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated that the US would continue to adhere to a strong-dollar policy, and emphasized that countries such as Iran and Venezuela rejoining the dollar system in the future would help further consolidate the dollar’s international status. Affected by this, the US dollar index continued to rebound. On geopolitics, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement continued to advance, and transportation through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returned to normal. On industrial demand, mainstream quotations for national-standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market versus TD were basically flat WoW, and the transaction center remained mainly concentrated on the Gold Exchange TD at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg. As silver prices continued to decline, downstream enterprises’ procurement pace recovered somewhat, but overall it remained dominated by just-in-time procurement, with limited willingness to stockpile in bulk; some enterprises showed pronounced fear-of-falling sentiment. On inventory, social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen saw slight destocking. Maintenance at some smelters and delivery of export orders continued to draw down inventory, but inventory factors provided limited support to prices. On the gold/silver ratio, as of June 24, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rebounded to around 67, with silver underperforming gold. [Key Data] Bearish: 1. US Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated a strong-dollar stance and said the dollar’s international status would be further strengthened, driving the US dollar index to continue rebounding. 2. The hawkish impact of the US Fed’s June meeting continued to ferment, and several foreign investment banks raised expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in their latest reports. 3. US Treasury yields stayed high, with real rates continuing to suppress precious metals, and asset-allocation preferences still tilted toward US dollar assets. [Near-Term Watch] June 26: US Q1 final GDP; June 27: US May core PCE price index; July 3: US June non-farm payrolls data; Key focus: changes in US inflation data, remarks by US Fed officials, the US dollar index trend, and subsequent developments in the Middle East situation. [Price Forecast] Next week, silver is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with the current core market logic centered on the US Fed’s policy path and the US dollar trend. After the June meeting, the US Fed’s hawkish stance continued to ferment; together with Bessent’s recent strong-dollar remarks driving the US dollar index higher, and US Treasury yields staying high, silver faced multiple layers of macro pressure. On the domestic fundamental side, the spot market maintained an overall just-in-time procurement pattern. Social inventory of spot silver ingots continued destocking, but this was insufficient to alter the current macro-driven correction landscape. The mainstream traded price for spot silver ingots is expected to remain on par with or at a premium of up to 20 yuan/kg over the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD contract, with limited potential for an immediate further increase in premiums. Overall, against a backdrop of a strengthening US dollar and the US Fed’s hawkish stance, silver remains under correction pressure in the short term. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with market attention on further guidance from US core PCE data on expectations.

Fed Hawkish Signals Exceed Expectations; Precious Metals Under Short-Term Pressure but Downside Limited June 18 — At 2:00 AM Beijing Time on June 18, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive hold. The statement was significantly shortened in length and removed language hinting at further rate cuts. The dot plot showed nine officials expect a rate hike this year, while newly appointed Chairman Warsh did not submit a dot plot and declined to provide forward guidance. Hawkish signals pushed market pricing for a year-end rate hike up to 38 basis points. From a policy perspective, this FOMC meeting delivered hawkish signals that exceeded market expectations. Combined with the return of rate-hike expectations in the dot plot, it signals that the Fed's communication tone has shifted from "pause and watch" to "potential hiking," putting near-term pressure on precious metals. However, the fourth consecutive hold itself was in line with market expectations, and any actual rate hike still requires more data for validation, so the marginal impact of the policy signal itself is relatively limited. More critically, earlier economic data — U.S. May nonfarm payrolls rose by 172,000, beating expectations, with a combined upward revision of 93,000 for March-April — underscores that labor market resilience remains the most significant headwind suppressing rate-cut expectations and is the core bearish factor for precious metals recently. By contrast, May headline CPI matched expectations while core CPI came in slightly below consensus, meaning inflation data did not reinforce the tightening narrative beyond expectations, and its bearish impact is comparatively moderate. On balance, precious metals face dual pressure from hawkish policy signals and labor market resilience, but the elevated rate-hike expectations are still in the pricing-in phase, and the market may not form a systemic downward resonance at current levels. The trading logic will continue to hinge on subsequent nonfarm payrolls, CPI data, and actual communication from Warsh. US-Iran Peace Talks Advance; Geopolitical Risk Premium Unwinds June 18 — The presidents of the United States and Iran have signed an electronic memorandum of understanding (MoU). The official 14-point text largely matches prior media disclosures, and both sides are set to formally sign the agreement in Switzerland on Friday. Trump stated that if follow-up implementation of the MoU falls short of satisfaction, bombing operations would resume, and also revealed discussions with Syrian leaders on striking Hezbollah. Meanwhile, southern Lebanon witnessed multiple Israeli attacks, and Israel's finance minister indicated no withdrawal on Friday or thereafter. The geopolitical situation remains in a complex tug-of-war characterized by "negotiations alongside conflict." In the near term, the signing of the MoU marks a substantive phase in ceasefire negotiations, with market expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz strengthening, leading to further unwinding of the risk premium. Should the formal agreement be finalized on Friday, structural concerns over crude supply would materially ease, putting downward pressure on the oil price center, which in turn would cool global inflation expectations. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, if sustained oil weakness drives down energy costs, the Fed's monetary policy room would reopen, and market logic could gradually shift from "tightening expectations" toward a "rate-cut cycle," potentially offering new macro support for precious metals. Overall, US-Iran relations are currently in a phase of "peace talks advancing, conflicts unresolved," and market pricing will revolve around Friday's agreement implementation and subsequent execution risks in a repeated back-and-forth manner. Early Hiking Cycle Pressure Does Not Alter Long-Term Logic; Precious Metals' Allocation Value Remains Prominent Historical experience shows that in the early stages of every rate-hiking cycle, precious metals typically come under pressure from rising nominal rates and a stronger dollar, but the trend is not unidirectional downward. As the hiking cycle deepens, growing concerns over recession risks and liquidity stress increasingly highlight gold's role as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset, with its price center tending to rise in the middle-to-late stages. Therefore, even if the Fed continues on a hawkish path, the pressure on precious metals may not be sustained; liquidity conditions and shifts in macro expectations also influence price dynamics. Of course, our overall bullish long-term logic for precious metals remains unchanged: First, global central banks continue to accumulate gold, with de-dollarization and reserve diversification strategies providing a solid floor for gold prices. Second, the U.S. dollar's credit system faces deep erosion — high interest rates on U.S. Treasuries imply high risk, and over the long run, U.S. debt rollover pressures and fiscal indiscipline are accelerating global de-dollarization. Third, the ever-expanding U.S. government debt stock and deteriorating fiscal sustainability raise the risk of future debt monetization and dollar depreciation. As a non-liability, supra-sovereign hard asset, gold's safe-haven and store-of-value functions hold irreplaceable appeal in the current macro environment. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts continue to simmer without truly subsiding, while global supply chains and energy markets remain volatile, with inflation persistence lingering. These uncertainties will collectively underpin the demand for gold and silver as safe-haven allocation assets, further boosting their strategic value over the medium-to-long term. From the Gold/Silver Ratio Perspective: Silver Under Pressure in the Short Term, but Outperforming Gold in the Medium-to-Long Term Remains Intact Historically, the gold/silver ratio exhibits significant mean-reverting behavior, with its long-term center roughly fluctuating between 60 and 70. However, under extreme macro environments, it can deviate markedly — for instance, the ratio widened sharply after the 2008 financial crisis and approached a historical extreme near 120 during the 2020 pandemic. The underlying dynamic is that during extreme risk-off episodes, the market prioritizes gold as a safe-haven asset, while silver, burdened by its industrial metal characteristics, tends to face systematic selling. Thus, the gold/silver ratio's cyclical movement can be summarized as: widening during crises (silver underperforms) and narrowing during recovery/inflation cycles (silver outperforms). Its essence is a cyclical indicator driven by the alternating dominance of safe-haven attributes versus industrial attributes. In the near term, the gold/silver ratio is more prone to stage-wise upward moves or range-bound drift with an upward bias. On one hand, silver has already posted notable gains, with crowded positioning making it more vulnerable to pullback pressure. On the other hand, the photovoltaic industry — a key pillar of silver industrial demand — is expected to see cell silver consumption decline by 9.51% year-over-year in 2026, and with ongoing silver-reduction progress and evolving cell product structures, annual silver consumption is projected to maintain a roughly 5 percentage-point decline through 2030. Although positive terminal installation expectations may boost cell production volumes, translating to some incremental demand, when converted to silver demand, a roughly 20% decline is anticipated this year. Over the long cycle, 2026 also marks a pivotal turning point in silver's industrial demand structure. The low-voltage electrical equipment sector, as a rigid support segment, exhibits strong irreplaceability in its silver demand. Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, PCBs, and SiC chips are rapidly expanding their end-market bases, and despite unchanged unit silver consumption, overall demand continues to grow steadily. Therefore, we maintain our core view that the gold/silver ratio will trend downward in the medium-to-long term — i.e., we are constructive on silver outperforming gold. The driving logic will gradually shift from rates and liquidity toward energy transition and industrial demand. Silver is transforming from a traditional precious metal into a strategically important industrial metal with rising exposure to photovoltaics, AI data centers, and grid upgrades, while supply remains highly inelastic due to its heavy dependence on lead-zinc and copper byproduct production. Once the global economy enters a rate-cutting cycle or real rates decline, silver's industrial elasticity will significantly amplify its upside potential, whereas gold, supported more by central bank buying and safe-haven demand, tends to follow a smoother trajectory.

[Price review] Silver prices stabilized and rebounded this week (6.15-6.18) after a continuous early decline. Easing US-Iran tensions saw both domestic and overseas futures hold up well, with the price center edging up slightly WoW. Market attention was focused on the Fed’s FOMC meeting early Thursday morning. The Fed kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, the fourth straight hold, but the latest dot plot showed a generally more hawkish shift among officials—the majority expected no rate cuts this year, and nearly half saw further rate hikes as possible. The statement noted inflation remains above target, and rising energy costs and geopolitical risks add to inflation uncertainty. Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated at the press conference that the Fed is firmly committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% long-term goal and will not pivot to accommodative policy in the short term. Following the meeting, silver dipped briefly but then recovered on technical buying as expectations of further rate hikes did not materially increase. On the geopolitical front, a US-Iran memorandum of understanding was formally signed and took effect, kicking off a 60-day negotiation period. In industrial demand, premiums for mainstream quotations of national standard silver ingots against TD in the Shanghai market were basically flat WoW; mainstream quotations stayed at parity to slight premiums, with most trades concluded at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg against TD on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Downstream consumption turned sluggish as silver prices rebounded slightly. On the inventory side, as the holiday approached, some suppliers cleared their stock, while the willingness to sell was weak given locked long-term contracts and reserved export quotas. Additionally, some upstream smelters started routine maintenance. Social inventories of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen saw overall destocking. As for the gold/silver ratio, the LBMA gold/silver ratio was around 67 as of June 17. [Key data] Bearish: The June FOMC meeting kept rates at 3.50-3.75% unchanged, but the dot plot showed the majority of members expected no rate cuts this year and some supported further hikes, indicating an overall hawkish Fed stance. Fed Chairman Warsh said inflation remains clearly above the 2% target, monetary policy will stay restrictive, and clear rate-cut signals are unlikely in the near term. The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with unemployment around 4.3%, dampening market expectations for rapid easing. Bullish: A US-Iran memorandum of understanding was formally signed and took effect, initiating a 60-day negotiation period. Peru's energy crisis persists, with the nationwide state of emergency extended to year-end. Already 12 large mines have adopted staggered production, and May silver output is expected to decline 5-8%. The global supply-demand gap remains, offering some floor support to silver prices. [Near-term Focus] June 20: US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary; June 26: US Q1 GDP final; June 27: US May core PCE price index; Key focus: changes in US inflation data, developments in the Middle East situation, and the progress of strait reopening. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to hold up well next week. Ongoing attention is needed on the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran situation. Trump has threatened Iran with further strikes if it fails to comply with the terms of the agreement. After the Fed’s June policy meeting concluded, market uncertainty about the policy path temporarily subsided. Although the Fed’s overall tone remains hawkish, expectations for additional rate hikes have not increased. Silver’s previous bearish factors have been largely released. However, US Treasury yields will continue to exert some pressure on silver, and prices may move sideways. On the domestic fundamentals side, downstream enterprises maintain rigid demand-based purchases while pushing for lower prices. Selling pressure on low-priced spot cargo has eased, and social inventory of spot silver ingots has been destocking overall. Yet sentiment has not fully recovered. Mainstream spot transaction discounts/premiums are expected to remain within the range of parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg against the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD contract. A shift toward higher premiums in the short term appears unlikely.

[Price Review] This week (6.8-6.11), silver extended its accelerated decline, with both international and domestic futures markets plunging sharply in tandem. The price center moved notably lower WoW, hitting a new low in nearly two months. The non-farm payrolls data triggered the first heavy sell-off: on June 5, the US May non-farm payrolls report showed an increase of 172,000 jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 85,000; data for the prior two months were revised up by a combined 93,000, and the unemployment rate held at a historic low of 4.3%. Following the release, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes surged sharply, and silver immediately suffered a heavy blow. On June 10, the US May CPI data came out, up 4.2% YoY and 0.5% MoM. The inflation data further cemented market expectations that the US Fed would maintain high interest rates. Paired with renewed deterioration in the US-Iran conflict, with US forces striking Iran for two consecutive days, the US Fed was expected to have difficulty releasing dovish signals in the near term. Industrial demand side, the premium of standard silver ingots against TD mainstream quotations in the Shanghai market continued to rise WoW; mainstream quotations were generally at parity or with slight premiums, and most transactions settled in the range from parity against SGE TD to a premium of 10 yuan/kg. As silver prices plunged during the week, downstream inquiry activity was relatively active. Inventory side, downstream consumption recovered somewhat WoW, and some smelters showed lower willingness to sell due to falling prices, so social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen destocked overall. Gold/silver ratio side, as of June 10, the LBMA gold/silver ratio widened from 63.8 a week ago to 67.2, highlighting silver's greater weakness relative to gold under sustained macro pressure. [Important Data] Bearish US May non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000, far exceeding expectations, with labor market resilience surprising to the upside. US May CPI up 4.2% YoY, a three-year high, as inflationary pressures re-emerged. After taking office as Fed Chairman, Warsh set a clear hawkish tone, and subsequent official remarks continued to send tightening signals. India's silver import control policy remained in place, weighing on physical consumption demand. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis persisted, with a national state of emergency until year-end; 12 large mines have already implemented staggered production, and May silver output is expected to decline by 5%–8%. The global supply-demand gap remains, providing some floor support for silver prices. [What to Watch] June 16-17: US Fed June FOMC meeting and Warsh post-meeting press conference (key event) June 18: US May retail sales data June 20: University of Michigan preliminary June consumer sentiment index Key focus: Fed official speeches, latest developments in US-Iran negotiations. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to maintain a pattern of hovering at lows and seeking a bottom next week, remaining under an overall high macro pressure environment. The Fed's FOMC meeting from June 16 to 17 will be the core focus next week, with the market closely watching Wash's speech content and the Fed's latest guidance on the interest rate path. If the Fed releases a clear signal of rate hikes, silver prices may dip further; if the meeting outcome leans dovish, silver prices could see a rebound from oversold conditions. On the domestic fundamentals side, downstream purchases have slightly recovered, pressure from spot selling at lows in the market has eased somewhat, and the social inventory of spot silver ingots is destocking overall. Since most enterprises remain cautious amid heavy fear of price declines, mainstream traded spot premiums are expected to remain in a range of parity to a 10 yuan/kg premium over SGE TD, and the market is unlikely to quickly shift to higher premiums in the near term.

[Price Review] This week (6.1-6.4), silver continued to fluctuate downward in the doldrums, with the overall price center shifting lower, as both international and domestic futures weakened in tandem. On the macro front, the CME FedWatch tool showed a 98.4% probability that the US Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in June, with only a 1.6% probability of a rate cut; for September, the probability of maintaining the current rate stood at 71.1%, with a 27.8% probability of a rate hike. Data-wise, US May ADP employment exceeded expectations, with private sector payrolls increasing by 122,000, the largest monthly gain since January last year, with key focus on tomorrow evening's US May non-farm payrolls data. Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict remained unresolved; Trump stated that US-Iran negotiations were progressing smoothly and nearing a deal signing, while the maritime blockade on Iran may extend through September; the Israeli Prime Minister indicated tactical differences with the US but aligned strategic objectives, while the Israeli military stated there would be no ceasefire in Lebanon. Industrial demand side, mainstream quotations for national-standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market against TD remained in a slight discount range, but the discount narrowed further WoW, with market quotations gradually moving toward parity. Most transaction prices fell within a discount of 20-0 yuan/kg against the SGE TD contract. As silver prices declined during the week, downstream consumption recovered slightly WoW, with spot cargo selling pressure at low levels somewhat easing, though overall consumption remained sluggish. Inventory side, downstream consumption and investment sentiment remained cautious, and a notable improvement is unlikely in the near term. Social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen continued to accumulate slightly. Gold/silver ratio side, as of June 3, the BMA gold/silver ratio widened further from 62.3 to 63.8 this week. [Key Data] Bearish: Warsh was officially inaugurated as Fed Chairman, with a clearly hawkish tone. Speculative funds withdrew on a large scale, with COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions continuing to shrink. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis persisted, with a national state of emergency declared through year-end. Twelve large mines have implemented staggered production, and May silver production is estimated to have declined by 5%-8%, with the global supply-demand gap still in place. [Recent Focus] June 5: US May non-farm payrolls report June 12: US May CPI data Key focus: US Fed officials' speeches, latest developments in US-Iran negotiations, and the implementation of production restrictions at Peruvian mines. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to hover at lows next week. Silver prices have yet to break free from the macro headwind environment, and the earlier supply-side speculation narrative has largely faded. Key focus will be on tomorrow evening's non-farm payrolls data, US Fed officials' speeches, and the direction of US-Iran negotiations. In terms of operations, it is recommended to mainly wait and see, pending clear stabilization signals. On the China fundamentals side, downstream buying sentiment remained relatively cautious. Overall consumption recovered slightly as silver prices stayed at short-term lows. Low-level spot selling pressure in the market eased somewhat, but the overall market remained sluggish. Investment sentiment showed no obvious rebound either. Social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate slightly. The mainstream spot transaction discount in the market is expected to remain within the range of a 10-0 yuan/kg discount to the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD price.

[Price Review] Silver prices remained under pressure this week, primarily due to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, sustained expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes within the year, and strong performance in European and US equity markets that continued to divert funds from the precious metals market. On the macro front, newly appointed Fed Chairman Waller officially took office, with his hawkish stance reinforcing market tightening expectations; US-Iran negotiations remained volatile—according to Reuters on May 28, the US military launched a new round of strikes on military facilities within Iran. On the industrial demand side, as silver prices declined during the week, mainstream quotations and spot transaction discounts both narrowed. However, some suppliers had limited willingness to sell due to tax invoice audits and the approaching month-end, combined with downstream consumption still showing no significant improvement. Only some downstream enterprises lacking tax invoice input credit could accept small quantities at high premiums. The spot market overall exhibited sluggish trading on both sides, with inventory continuing to accumulate. Gold/silver ratio side, as of May 27, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rebounded to 62x, continuing to widen WoW. [Key Data] Bearish Waller officially assumed the role of Fed Chairman, with a clearly hawkish tone. US-Iran negotiations saw major reversals, causing market expectations to become chaotic. On May 25, Iran stated it had reached consensus with the US on most issues, but on May 28, Trump publicly stated that "Iran negotiations have made no progress." Speculative funds withdrew on a large scale—COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions declined sharply for three consecutive weeks, with cumulative reductions exceeding 25,000 contracts. Previously inflowing speculative funds concentrated on closing positions, amplifying the magnitude of silver's price decline. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis continued, with a national state of emergency extending to year-end. Twelve large mines have implemented staggered production schedules, and May silver production is expected to decline 5%-8%, with the global supply-demand gap persisting. [Upcoming Focus] May 29: US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final) June 3: US May ISM Manufacturing PMI June 5: US May Non-Farm Payrolls Report June 12: US May CPI Data Key focus: Fed officials' speeches, latest developments in US-Iran negotiations, execution of production restrictions at Peruvian mines [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to hover at lows in a bottoming pattern next week, with core variables being Fed officials' speeches and the direction of US-Iran negotiations. Current market sentiment is extremely cautious, with macro headwinds remaining the dominant factor, and the previous supply-side speculation narrative having largely faded. Operationally, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, pending clear stabilization signals. China fundamentals side, downstream buying sentiment remains cautious, overall consumption is still sluggish, and spot silver ingot social inventory continues to accumulate. However, as silver's absolute price has declined and bank floor purchase price discounts have narrowed, mainstream spot transaction discounts are expected to contract slightly to a range of 20-0 yuan/kg discount to the SGE TD price.

[Price Review] Silver fell sharply at the beginning of this week, mainly due to repeated Middle East geopolitical tensions with slow progress in US-Iran negotiations, critically low global crude oil inventories driving oil prices higher, combined with rising interest rate hike expectations and rising US Treasury yields, which continued to weigh on precious metals valuations. On Wednesday evening, as US-Iran tensions eased somewhat, oil prices declined while medium- and long-term US Treasury yields both pulled back, and precious metals futures rebounded slightly. On the macro front, new Fed Chairman Waller delivered his first public speech maintaining a hawkish stance. Combined with US April non-farm payrolls and CPI both exceeding expectations, interest rate hike expectations continued to rise, with expectations for rate cuts within the year nearly zeroed out. CME Fed Watch showed a 97.3% probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged in June and a 2.7% probability of a rate cut; a 72.7% probability of rates remaining unchanged from current levels in September, a 2% probability of a rate cut, and a 25.4% probability of a rate hike. Industrial demand side, at the beginning of the week, downstream consumption recovered slightly as silver prices declined, but demand quickly faded as prices rebounded. Some suppliers also showed weak willingness to offer due to continuously widening transaction discounts, with the price spread between high and low offers widening. The silver spot market remained generally low in activity, and inventory continued to increase slightly. Gold/silver ratio, as of May 20, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rebounded to 59x, widening notably WoW. [Key Data] Bearish New Fed Chairman Waller delivered his first speech on May 15 with an extremely hawkish tone, explicitly stating there was no reason for rate cuts in the near term and not ruling out the possibility of resuming rate hikes. April CPI came in at 3.8% YoY (the highest since May 2023), core CPI at 2.8% (the highest since September 2025), and PPI at 6.0% YoY (the largest single-month increase in over four years), with inflation stickiness exceeding market expectations. The US dollar index rebounded above 105, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 4.5%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield reached above 5%, significantly raising the opportunity cost of holding precious metals. India raised silver import tariffs from 6% to 15% while tightening import quotas, causing demand from the world's largest physical buyer to drop sharply. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis continued, with a national state of emergency extending through year-end. Twelve large mines have implemented staggered production, and May silver production is expected to decline by 5%-8%, with the global supply-demand gap persisting. US-Iran negotiations saw new positive progress, with both sides engaging in indirect contact through Qatar and reaching preliminary consensus on some core disagreements. [Upcoming Focus] May 22: Waller's inauguration speech; Eurozone and UK May manufacturing PMI preliminary readings May 23: US May Markit manufacturing and services PMI preliminary readings May 27: US 2026 Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate revised value May 28: US April core PCE price index, weekly initial jobless claims Key focus: Waller's official inauguration speech as Fed Chairman, US-Iran negotiation progress [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to remain under pressure with adjustments next week, with core variables being Waller's inauguration speech and US-Iran negotiation progress. The market is closely watching Warsh's debut and four key focus areas: the US Fed's stance on independence, inflation framework reform, interest rate path, and balance sheet reduction pace. Combined with Warsh's previous policy positions, if he insists on prioritizing anti-inflation efforts and releases expectations of retaining the rate hike option, precious metals are expected to face sustained suppression in the short term. On the China fundamentals side, downstream buying sentiment is generally cautious. The decline in silver's absolute price has not significantly boosted downstream demand, and wait-and-see sentiment remains strong. Social inventory of spot silver ingots has increased slightly, and the market expects spot mainstream transaction discounts to widen slightly to the SGE TD discount range of 50-20 yuan/kg.

[Price Review] Silver fluctuated upward this week, charting an independent trend with gains significantly outpacing gold. On the news front, Peru was hit by a sudden energy crisis and issued a national emergency decree; power rationing is expected to cause mine shutdowns, thereby affecting supply. As the world's 12th largest mining country, Peru holds 21.8% of global silver reserves, which ignited the silver rally. On the macro front, US April non-farm payrolls and CPI both exceeded expectations, with the inflation rebound reinforcing the US Fed's stance on delaying interest rate cuts, with probabilities of holding rates unchanged in June and July reaching 93.5% and 86.5%, respectively. Industrial demand side, the spot market remained weak; rising absolute silver prices continued to suppress downstream demand. Suppliers generally reported sluggish market transactions and weak buying sentiment, leading to low enthusiasm for offering quotes, a widening price spread between high and low quotes, and an overall tepid trading atmosphere in the spot market, with spot inventory continuing to accumulate. Gold/silver ratio, as of May 13, the LBMA gold/silver ratio fell to 54, hitting a new low since 2013. [Key Data] Bullish: Peru was hit by a sudden nationwide energy crisis and declared a state of emergency lasting until year-end, with mine power usage restricted. If strict power rationing is enforced, silver production is expected to decline by 3%-10%, and the global supply-demand gap is expected to widen by 15%-30%. US April non-farm payrolls data showed a continued divergence of "strong services, weak manufacturing," highlighting a stagflation pattern. Bearish US April CPI came in at 3.8% YoY and core CPI at 2.8% YoY, both exceeding expectations, reinforcing the US Fed's stance on delaying interest rate cuts. US-Iran negotiations reached an impasse, with the US side fully rejecting Iran's proposal amid major core disagreements; shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz persist. Hawkish Warsh was officially confirmed as the next Fed Chairman, and multiple officials stated they do not rule out the possibility of resuming rate hikes. [Recent Focus] May 15: New Fed Chairman Warsh's first public speech. May 16: US April retail sales, May New York Fed Manufacturing Index. May 17: US initial jobless claims, April industrial production MoM. May 20: US April core PCE price index. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to see wild swings at elevated levels next week, with the core variables being the implementation of power rationing in Peru and progress in US-Iran negotiations. Amid the risk of prolonged US inflation, stagflation trades are poised to become the core narrative for the next round of precious metals rallies. If a de-escalation in geopolitical conflicts drives oil prices to pull back, it will provide favorable conditions for opening a monetary easing window after Warsh assumes the role of Fed Chairman. On the fundamentals side in China, downstream buying sentiment remained persistently weak. The continued rise in the absolute price of silver kept suppressing downstream demand, with heavy wait-and-see sentiment. Social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate, and the mainstream spot transaction discount in the market is expected to remain in the range of a 40-10 yuan/kg discount to the SGE TD price.

Gold and silver market update — May 11, 2026 Key Takeaways The gold/silver ratio measures how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold — as of May 11, 2026, it stands at 54.94, down from 62.05 just one week earlier Silver surged 7.1% to $86.10/oz today while gold barely moved at $4,730 — the catalyst is a US-China 90-day tariff truce that directly reprices silver’s industrial demand outlook (prices per nFusion Solutions, ~3:49 PM ET) According to the Silver Institute, silver has run a supply deficit for six consecutive years, with roughly 762 million troy ounces drawn from above-ground stockpiles since 2021 — the structural case for silver was in place long before this week The gold/silver ratio measures how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. When it falls, silver is outperforming. Right now it’s falling fast — from 62.05 a week ago to 54.94 today — after silver surged 7.1% to $86.10 on a US-China tariff truce. That kind of compression in under a week is rare. It tends to happen when a catalyst hits a metal that was already primed to move. Silver was primed: according to the Silver Institute, it has run a supply deficit for six consecutive years. What Is the Gold/Silver Ratio — and What Does 54.94 Actually Mean? The gold silver ratio doesn’t tell you whether to buy. It tells you relative value. A ratio of 55 means one ounce of gold currently buys 55 ounces of silver, while at 88 — where it stood in early 2024 — silver was cheap relative to gold. The lower the ratio, the more ground silver has reclaimed. In normal markets, the ratio has historically ranged from roughly 40 to 80. Extremes revert. It hit 125 in March 2020 — a pandemic-panic outlier — before compressing back to the mid-60s by August of that year. At 54.94 today, the ratio is near the low end of its historical range. That’s not a buy signal. It’s context: silver has already closed a lot of ground, which makes the next directional move meaningful. Why Is Silver Outperforming Gold Right Now? Two forces hit silver simultaneously this week. They reinforce each other. The first force is trade: the US and China announced a 90-day tariff truce over the weekend. US tariffs on Chinese goods dropped from 145% to 30%; Chinese tariffs on US goods fell from 125% to 10%. For gold, that news is roughly neutral. Silver, however, gets a direct demand signal. According to the Silver Institute, approximately 60% of silver’s annual consumption is industrial — solar panels, electric vehicle batteries, and semiconductors. Most of that supply chain runs through China. When the tariffs came down, traders immediately repriced silver’s demand outlook. The 7% single-session move is that repricing happening in real time. Underlying that trade catalyst is a second, structural force. According to the Silver Institute, silver has run a supply deficit for six consecutive years — the world consumes more than it mines. The 2026 deficit is projected at 46.3 million ounces, up 15% from 2025. Since 2021, roughly 762 million troy ounces have been drawn from above-ground stockpiles. The trade truce lit the match. Six years of deficits was the fuel. Has a Ratio This Low Ever Predicted a Bigger Silver Move? It has — though the setup matters as much as the level. The clearest recent parallel is 2020, when the pandemic pushed the ratio to 125 in March — an extreme by any historical measure. As the shock faded, silver rallied roughly 45% over the following months while the ratio compressed back to the mid-60s by August. The starting point this time is far less extreme. But the direction and velocity are similar. The fair pushback: a 90-day truce is not a trade deal. If US-China negotiations break down before the deadline, silver’s industrial demand thesis softens and the ratio can re-expand quickly. That’s a real risk. But six years of supply deficits, documented by the Silver Institute, don’t evaporate on a failed negotiation. The structural bid existed before this week. All the truce did was remove a ceiling — it didn’t create the floor. What Does the Ratio Tell Long-Term Precious Metals Holders? Not what to do today — what to understand about where we are. Silver’s dual nature is the point. It’s part monetary metal, part industrial feedstock. When real yields fall, gold tends to lead. As industrial activity picks up, silver tends to overshoot. Right now both conditions are present, which is why silver is moving faster. A ratio of 54.94 means silver has been closing the gap with gold since early 2024, when it sat at 88. Fiat currency systems erode purchasing power gradually, through inflation and monetary expansion. Gold and silver both resist that erosion — but they don’t always move in lockstep. The ratio is the scoreboard. Right now, silver is catching up. That’s not alarming. That’s the system working the way it’s supposed to. Prices as of May 11, 2026, approximately 3:49 PM ET. Source： https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/goldsilver-news/why-the-gold-silver-ratio-is-falling-and-what-it-means/

[Price Review] This week, expectations for a US-Iran ceasefire continued to heat up, with US media reporting that the US and Iran were close to reaching a ceasefire agreement, driving a sharp pullback in crude oil and a retreat in medium- and long-term US Treasury yields from highs, which propelled a significant rally in precious metals, with silver's gains notably outpacing gold. US April ADP employment data released this week showed an addition of 109,000 jobs, hitting a nearly 15-month high and highlighting the overall resilience of the labor market. The market has now turned its focus to Friday evening's non-farm payrolls report. On expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, the latest CME data showed that market bets on near-term US Fed rate cuts remained at low levels, with a 93.5% probability of maintaining the current rate at the June FOMC meeting, corresponding to a 6.5% probability of a rate cut; the probability of holding rates steady at the July meeting reached 86.5%, with a 13.5% probability of a rate cut. Industrial demand side, downstream consumption remained sluggish, with downstream participants taking a cautious wait-and-see approach amid the silver price rebound, and only some downstream enterprises making just-in-time procurement. Gold/silver ratio side, as of May 6, the LBMA gold/silver ratio fell to 61. [Key Data] Bullish: On May 6, the US side stated it was close to reaching a ceasefire memorandum with Iran. If the agreement materializes, the pullback in oil prices would ease inflationary pressures and weaken the US Fed's hawkish stance. Dovish divisions within the US Fed persisted, with some officials still believing there was room for multiple interest rate cuts within the year, keeping the rate cut window open and preventing a complete reversal of easing expectations. Concerns over slowing US economic growth emerged, with market expectations for US Q1 GDP growth pulling back sharply from the previous reading. Stagflation and recession fears reinforced safe-haven allocation demand for silver. Bearish: US April ADP employment added 109,000 jobs, hitting a nearly 15-month high and highlighting the overall resilience of the labor market. The April FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged. CME data showed a 93.5% probability of holding rates steady in June, with expectations for rate cuts within the year contracting to 0–1 times, and the US dollar and real US Treasury yields held up well. China's silver industrial demand remained subdued, with downstream PV and electronics enterprises maintaining just-in-time procurement, and social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate. Key data and macro developments to watch in the near term include: May 7: Bank of England interest rate decision, ECB April monetary policy meeting minutes. May 8: US April non-farm payrolls report. May 12: US April CPI data. In addition, close attention should be paid to the progress of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. [Price Forecast] US-Iran ceasefire negotiations have entered a critical window. Although both sides have released signals of peace talks, core demands have not yet been reconciled. Whether the agreement ultimately materializes and whether new uncertainties emerge regarding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to dominate market risk appetite, serving as the core variable affecting silver's short-term trajectory. Against this backdrop, silver is expected to first see a volatile rebound and then consolidate at highs next week, with an overall bullish bias. On the fundamentals side in China, downstream consumption remained sluggish. With the rebound in spot silver prices, downstream enterprises exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment. The upward trend in social inventory of spot silver ingots has yet to improve, and the mainstream spot market transactions are expected to maintain a slight discount relative to the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD price.