SMM News August 1: Metals markets: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper fell 0.18%, gaining 2.9% in July. SHFE aluminum was unchanged at 23,665 yuan/mt, with a July gain of 4.63%. SHFE lead fell 1.41%, SHFE zinc rose 0.64%, and SHFE tin rose 0.72%. SHFE nickel fell 0.24%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures edged up 0.04%, and the cast aluminum main contract edged up 0.02%. Overnight, most ferrous metals fell. Stainless steel rose 0.17%, iron ore fell 2.85%, rebar fell 0.83%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.74%. In terms of coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.38%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.51%. In the overnight overseas market, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper edged up 0.03%, with a July gain of 3.16%. LME aluminum rose 0.06%, gaining 2.9% in July. LME lead fell 0.69%. LME zinc rose 0.84%. LME tin rose 0.26%. LME nickel fell 0.35%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.49%, but posted its second straight weekly gain, up 0.68% for the week, with a July monthly gain of 1.49%; COMEX silver fell 2.1%, with a weekly decline, down 1.92% for the week, and two straight monthly losses, sliding 3.58% in July. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.89%, posting its second straight weekly gain, up 0.55% for the week, with a July monthly gain of 1.52%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.01%, but posted two straight weekly gains, up 0.98% for the week, with a July monthly gain of 1.21%. As of 8:16 on August 1, overnight closing prices: Macro front China side: [State Council executive meeting: Study and implement General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speech on the H1 economic situation and ensuring sound economic work in H2] The meeting stressed that thinking and understanding should be aligned with the Party Central Committee’s scientific assessment of the economic situation, more concrete measures should be taken to promote sustained, innovation-driven, high-quality, and improved economic development, and efforts should be made to achieve a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan. The efficiency of macro policy implementation must be effectively enhanced, existing policies should be fully and optimally utilized, and pragmatic and effective incremental policies should be timely devised and introduced. Domestic demand must be effectively expanded, with a focus on sectors with great potential and strong driving force to launch a series of robust measures, accelerating the implementation of major projects set in the 15th Five-Year Plan and solidly advancing the planning and construction of the “Six Networks”. Internal growth drivers should be continuously strengthened, with more effective and concrete measures introduced in building a unified national market and improving the business environment. Sustained efforts must be made to prevent and resolve risks in key areas, solidly carry out tasks such as disaster prevention, mitigation and relief, and workplace safety, strengthen assistance to people in need, and firmly uphold the bottom line of people's livelihoods. (CCTV) [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Conducts Supervision and Inspection at Some Automotive Producers] To further standardize competitive order in the automotive industry and enhance the production consistency and quality and safety level of automotive products, the Equipment Industry Department I of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology went to Chery Automobile Co., Ltd., NIO Automotive Technology (Anhui) Co., Ltd., and Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (JAC) from the 30th to the 31st to conduct supervision and inspection on the product safety assurance capabilities and production consistency of road motor vehicle manufacturing enterprises. It is reported that in the next step, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will work with relevant departments to deeply carry out actions to enhance production consistency and quality of road motor vehicle products, further strengthen the management of access review and testing verification for "radical" innovative designs of automotive products, urge automobile and motorcycle manufacturers to thoroughly investigate product safety risk hazards, strengthen product testing verification and safety assessment, standardize marketing and publicity practices, safeguard the bottom line of product safety, and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. (Xinhua) [China Securities Regulatory Commission Approves Coke Options Registration] Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of coke options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The CSRC will urge the Dalian Commodity Exchange to make thorough preparations to ensure the smooth launch and stable operation of coke options. On the US dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.2% to 99.78. On the weekly chart, the US dollar index declined, dropping 1.65% for the week. On the monthly chart, the US dollar index fell, down 1.37% for the month. According to The New York Times, Fed Chairman Warsh is reportedly considering reducing the number of regularly scheduled interest-rate-setting meetings held by the US Fed, a move that could trigger significant shockwaves and would mark the biggest change in how the Fed operates in recent years. Currently, the Fed's 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to vote on whether to raise, lower, or maintain borrowing costs. According to four people familiar with the matter, Warsh proposed the idea of adjusting the meeting frequency at this week's Fed meeting. The people said that at the meeting this week, Warsh discussed the legal basis the Fed must follow regarding the minimum number of meetings it must hold each year, as well as the timetable for such an adjustment. Warsh asked officials to provide him with their individual views, rather than holding a full discussion on the meeting schedule at this week's meeting. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed Chairman Warsh kept interest rates unchanged this week, but three officials dissented, advocating for an immediate rate hike to address persistent inflation risks. Katharine Neiss, Deputy Head of Global Economics at PGIM Credit, said that Warsh's press conference performance was “weaker than expected” and expected that the US Fed’s “hawkish pivot” would materialize in September, at which point there could be three consecutive rate hikes. Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman noted: The support for the US dollar from the resilience of US economic activity has been offset by Warsh's failure to translate his tough inflation rhetoric into credible policy action, raising the risk that the US Fed falls behind the curve. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market-implied probability of a rate hike in September was 65%, a pullback from 82% a week earlier. (Wall Street CN) Three US Fed policymakers said their dissenting votes in favor of a rate hike this week stemmed from stubborn inflation pressures, indicating that the internal pressure on Fed Chairman Warsh to act is mounting. In statements released Friday morning, Hammack and Kashkari said they were concerned that, although the current round of price increases may have originated from short-term factors such as President Trump's tariff policies and the Iran war, the inflation situation now warrants action by the US Fed. Logan joined them, saying that even if inflation cools somewhat, it is unlikely to fully pull back to the US Fed’s 2% target unless the US Fed raises rates; without any policy restraint, inflation could continue to run above target until an unexpected shock occurs. Kashkari said that if inflation remains stubborn, he could support a series of rate hikes, not just a single increase, to prevent inflation from becoming further entrenched. He said, “A series of small policy adjustments may be preferable to waiting for the situation to develop and ultimately having to take more aggressive action.” Hammack said that if the US Fed does not tighten policy, the pace of price increases could continue to accelerate. She said, “Inflation has been stubbornly above 2% for more than five years, and I am not confident it will pull back to our target on its own.” (Jin10 Data APP) Fed’s Barkin said that whether the interest rate level set by the US Fed is sufficient to curb inflation is an “open question,” and he also said he is uncertain whether he would join the three other regional Fed presidents who voted for a rate hike this week. In an interview on Friday, Barkin said, “I think there is a good case for tightening policy and taking back some of the rate cuts from last year.”He noted that given the slowdown in inflation data in June, "I think one can also argue... there is still time before the next meeting to determine whether the current policy stance is appropriate." Barkin will not be a voting member on interest rate decisions until next year. Furthermore, Barkin was skeptical about whether the labour market has strengthened significantly. He stated, "It does not feel like the labour market is tight." He also pointed out that the transmission of price increases through the economy is uneven, making it difficult to assess how much inflation remains. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Next week will see the release of China July RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland July CPI MoM, France July Manufacturing PMI Final, Germany July Manufacturing PMI Final, Eurozone July Manufacturing PMI Final, UK July Manufacturing PMI Final, US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final, US July ISM Manufacturing PMI, US June Construction Spending MoM, US June Trade Balance, US June JOLTS Job Openings, US June Factory Orders MoM, China July RatingDog Services PMI, France June Industrial Production MoM, France July Services PMI Final, Germany July Services PMI Final, Eurozone July Services PMI Final, UK July Services PMI Final, Eurozone June PPI MoM, US July ADP Employment Change, US July S&P Global Services PMI Final, US July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland July Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate, Eurozone June Retail Sales MoM, US July Challenger Job Cuts, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 1, US July Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, US June Wholesale Sales MoM, France Q2 ILO Unemployment Rate, Germany June Seasonally Adjusted Industrial Production MoM, Germany June Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance, UK July Halifax Seasonally Adjusted House Price Index MoM, France June Trade Balance, Switzerland July Consumer Confidence Index, Canada July Employment Change, US July Unemployment Rate, US July Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payrolls, US July Average Hourly Earnings YoY, US July Average Hourly Earnings MoM, US July NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations, China July Trade Balance in USD terms, China July Foreign Exchange Reserves, China July Trade Balance, China July CPI YoY, China July PPI YoY, and other data. Additionally, attention should be paid next week to: SpaceX releasing its Q2 2026 results; 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaking on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaking. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures posted sharp gains, with WTI up 3.84% and Brent up 4.79%. On the weekly chart, WTI crude oil futures fell 2.81% over the week, while Brent crude oil futures fell 0.7%. On the monthly chart, WTI crude oil futures surged 24.89% over the month, and Brent crude oil surged 24.8%. The decline in vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz heightened market concerns over global crude oil transportation. Uncertainty remains over when crude oil supply from the Middle East will return to normal. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement reached in June completely broke down in early July. From mid-to-late July, the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical chokepoint for energy trade, remained severely disrupted, with intermittent blockades at times. Meanwhile, long-range drone strikes by Ukraine on Russian refineries destroyed approximately 30% to 45% of Russia's active refining capacity, pushing European diesel refining margins above $60/barrel and sending global refined product prices near wartime highs. (Wallstreetcn) The international shipping information platform "Marine Traffic" reported on July 31 that vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on July 30 dropped to 5 from 22 the previous day, a decline of 77%. Data from the platform showed that all 5 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz via the channel on the Iranian side. (Jinshi Data APP) According to CBS News citing multiple sources, the US and Israel are planning one of the most intense bombing campaigns to date against Iranian energy infrastructure, potentially targeting power plants and refineries, with the operation possibly lasting through the weekend. On August 1, Iranian media cited an Iranian official as saying that Iran believes an attack by the US and Israel on Iranian infrastructure would be a "reckless act," and that Iran has formulated a comprehensive plan to respond to "any reckless action by the US." (Jinshi Data APP) According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Yemen's Houthi forces stated that in implementing the strategy of "blockade against blockade," 8 Saudi oil tankers have been forced to change course and detour around the Cape of Good Hope after maritime restrictions were imposed on Saudi oil vessels. (Jinshi Data APP) Meanwhile, ICE data showed that for the week ending July 28, Brent crude speculators reduced net long positions by 6,948 lots to 185,083 lots. Diesel speculators increased net long positions by 2,654 lots to 87,194 lots. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended reading:

[SMM Express] Zimbabwe's mineral export earnings jumped 84.7% in H1 2026 to US$2.532 billion, up from US$1.376 billion a year earlier, according to Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe data. The surge was led by PGM matte, spodumene concentrate and PGM concentrates, which together accounted for over 74% of earnings — a marked departure from previous years when gold and raw chrome dominated the export mix. Within that shift, ferrochrome was singled out as one of the processed products "steadily supplanting raw mineral exports," alongside refined steel, polished granite and lithium sulphate. MMCZ's General Manager framed the change as evidence of beneficiation policy taking hold, with processed chrome product gradually displacing unprocessed ore in Zimbabwe's export basket. Industry stakeholders have also called for tighter mineral-tracking systems to guard against smuggling and transfer-pricing risk as the value of processed mineral exports rises.

Since entering Q2 2026, the silicon manganese alloy market has remained under sustained pressure. Prices of upstream raw materials—including manganese ore and coke—have stayed elevated, while downstream steel consumption remains sluggish amid strong price-suppression efforts from mills. The industry is caught in a dual squeeze of “high costs and weak demand,” with losses spreading rapidly from isolated cases to a widespread trend.

With the booming development of the new energy vehicle industry, China's first wave of power batteries has entered a large-scale retirement phase. Recently, lithium battery recycling projects have been intensively launched across multiple regions nationwide, covering every link of the industrial chain — from dismantling and crushing to hydrometallurgy, from cascade utilization to material regeneration.

With the vigorous development of the NEV industry, China's first batch of power batteries entered a large-scale "retirement period." Recently, lithium battery recycling projects were intensively launched nationwide, from dismantling and crushing to hydrometallurgy, from second-life application to material regeneration, comprehensively accelerating the layout of all links in the industry chain.

Executive Summary Australia is a major supplier of feedstock to the Asia-Pacific zinc smelting system, but its supply structure is shifting from dominance by a small number of mature mines to a mix of mine closures, volatility at existing operations and ramp-ups at new projects. Glencore's Mount Isa zinc-lead business includes George Fisher and the nearby Lady Loretta mine, which reached the end of its mine life in late 2025. Meanwhile, Dugald River, McArthur River, Rosebery, Century, Cannington and Golden Grove remain the core of zinc concentrate supply from Australia, while newly commissioned or restarted projects such as Federation, Woodlawn and Endeavor have begun contributing incremental output. Zinc mine supply in Australia fell sharply in 2024 due to extreme weather, difficult underground mining conditions and changes in ore sequencing. It recovered in 2025 as McArthur River returned to normal and Dugald River delivered record production. In H1 2026, Glencore's operations in Australia produced 218 kt of zinc in concentrate, down 54 kt year on year, with roughly 51 kt of the reduction attributable to Lady Loretta's closure. Dugald River produced 87.2 kt of zinc in concentrate over the same period, indicating that the overall decline was driven primarily by the exit of a specific mature mine rather than by simultaneous cuts across all core operations. Supply from Australia should therefore be assessed on three horizons. In the short term, the focus is on wet-season disruptions to railways, ports and vessel schedules. Over the medium term, the key issues are the permanent loss of Lady Loretta, Century's approaching tailings-resource limit around 2027 and Cannington's lower operating rates, alongside the ramp-up of Federation, Woodlawn, Endeavor and the Gossan Valley mining front at Golden Grove. Changes in supply from Australia will affect arrivals in China and spot TCs, but the final assessment must also account for global net mine-supply growth and feedstock demand from smelters in China and overseas. I. Zinc Mine Supply in Australia: Mine Closures and New Capacity Ramp-Ups Australia's main zinc mines are located in Queensland, the Northern Territory, Tasmania, New South Wales and Western Australia. Major existing operations include Glencore's Mount Isa zinc-lead business and McArthur River, MMG's Dugald River and Rosebery, Sibanye-Stillwater's Century, South32's Cannington, and 29Metals' Golden Grove. Newly commissioned or restarted projects such as Federation, Woodlawn and Endeavor mean that supply from Australia is no longer determined solely by Mount Isa and Dugald River. The chart shows that Australia's zinc concentrate production has remained relatively high in recent years, although year-to-year volatility has been significant. In 2024, extreme weather at McArthur River and increasingly complex underground mining conditions at Cannington caused a marked decline in supply. McArthur River's recovery and higher production at Dugald River drove a rebound in 2025, before Lady Loretta's closure weighed on output again in 2026. Supply from Australia is therefore not static; it reflects the combined effects of recoveries, declines and additions across individual mines. Performance among existing assets has diverged markedly. Dugald River produced 183.5 kt of zinc in concentrate in 2025, up 12% year on year and a record annual result. MMG's Rosebery produced approximately 48.6 kt over the same period. Century's tailings reprocessing operation produced about 101 kt of payable zinc in concentrate in 2025, although the existing tailings project is approaching a mine-life milestone around 2027. Cannington produced approximately 44.5 kt of payable zinc in FY2025, with guidance of about 40 kt for FY2026 and 43 kt for FY2027, indicating a relatively stable but lower production profile. Lady Loretta's closure has created a confirmed supply loss. Glencore data show that zinc concentrate production in Australia fell 20% year on year in H1 2026, with most of the decline attributable to the mine reaching the end of its life in late 2025. Looking ahead to 2027–2030, supply from Australia will be shaped by offsets between losses and additions. Century faces the gradual depletion of its tailings resource, while Cannington is constrained by more complex underground mining conditions. On the upside, Federation continues to ramp up, Woodlawn has returned to stable production, the Gossan Valley mining front at Golden Grove is expected to deliver first ore in H2 2026, and Endeavor's restart will add supply. Australia's medium-term supply outlook is therefore not a one-way contraction, but rather a period in which retiring mines hand over to new sources of production. II. China's Imports from Australia: Monthly Volatility Does Not Necessarily Signal Mine-Supply Cuts The chart shows that China's imports of zinc concentrate from Australia are highly seasonal and sensitive to shipment schedules. A monthly decline may reflect lower mine output, but it may also result from rail disruptions, delayed port loading, ocean transit times, customs-clearance timing or changes in smelter procurement. A subsequent spike may simply represent delayed cargoes arriving in a later month. Import data should therefore be assessed against at least three sets of information: the gap between miners' production and sales, operating conditions on railways and at ports in northern Australia, and arrival patterns at China's major ports. The low readings in 2024 should not automatically be equated with a lasting production decline. Likewise, the 2026 trend should be assessed primarily on the basis of cumulative imports rather than exaggerated moves in individual months. III. Why Does the Wet Season Affect Zinc Concentrate Exports from Australia? The wet season in northern Australia typically runs from October to April, while the tropical cyclone season lasts from November to April. The 2025–2026 northern wet season was the seventh-wettest on record, with average rainfall of about 684 mm, 44% above the long-term average. Eleven tropical cyclones occurred in the region surrounding Australia during the season. Many zinc mines in Australia are located inland, requiring concentrate to be transported over long distances to port. For example, the Mount Isa mining complex relies on rail links to the Port of Townsville; McArthur River ships through the Bing Bong loading facility; and Century is connected by slurry pipeline to the Port of Karumba. Zinc concentrate from Australia is shipped not only to China but also to South Korea and other overseas smelters. Weather disruptions therefore first affect individual transport corridors before feeding through to the Asia-Pacific spot market. Heavy rainfall and flooding generally affect the market through the following chain: Flooding or cyclones → rail and road disruptions → delayed port loading and vessel schedules → inventory accumulation at mines → delayed and lower arrivals in China In Q1 2026, Dugald River still produced 41.1 kt of zinc concentrate despite flooding and rail disruptions. However, logistics constraints caused concentrate sales to fall short of production, leaving some inventory temporarily stockpiled at the mine. This shows that extreme weather often affects transportation and shipment timing rather than directly impairing mine capacity. Once rail and port operations resume, accumulated concentrate may be shipped in a concentrated wave, allowing China's imports to rebound. Flood impacts are therefore usually temporary and should not automatically be treated as a permanent loss of mine supply from Australia. IV. Why Do Changes in Supply from Australia Affect TCs? Zinc concentrate treatment charges (TCs) are fees paid by miners or concentrate sellers to smelters for processing. They essentially reflect the balance between concentrate supply and smelter demand over a given period. Changes in mine supply and logistics in Australia can alter regional spot-market tightness, but the direction of TCs is not determined by any single country. In general: Ample zinc concentrate supply gives smelters more feedstock options and generally pushes TCs higher; Tight zinc concentrate supply intensifies competition for feedstock and generally pushes TCs lower. Australia is an important source of zinc concentrate for the Asia-Pacific region and the global market. When shipments from Australia are delayed and arrivals in China decline while domestic smelters maintain strong feedstock demand, competition for spot concentrate may intensify and spot TCs may come under short-term pressure. If delayed cargoes subsequently arrive in a concentrated wave, or incremental supply from other regions becomes available in time, the impact may dissipate relatively quickly. At the global mine-supply level, the outlook for 2026 is not a one-way contraction. Kipushi in the Democratic Republic of the Congo produced 70.2 kt of contained zinc in concentrate in Q2, marking a seventh consecutive quarter-on-quarter increase. In Australia, Woodlawn returned to stable production, Federation continued to ramp up and Endeavor's restart added new supply. These gains are being offset by the closure of Lady Loretta, Antamina's shift to a copper-rich, zinc-poor ore sequence, feedstock-blending constraints at Kazzinc and the potential depletion of Century's tailings resource around 2027. Global mine supply is therefore increasingly characterised by simultaneous growth at new mines and declines at mature assets. TC assessments should therefore focus on whether annual net additions are sufficient to offset losses, as well as changes in smelter operating rates in China and overseas. In the short term, the key variables are rail and port conditions in Australia and arrivals in China. Over the medium term, additions from Kipushi, Woodlawn and Federation should be weighed against reductions at Lady Loretta, Antamina and Century. Only by assessing the global mine balance alongside smelter demand can the market determine whether pressure on TCs is temporary or structural. Conclusion Australia's zinc mine supply is moving through a handover between mature and emerging assets. Lady Loretta's closure represents a confirmed loss, while established operations such as Mount Isa's zinc-lead business and McArthur River are expected to focus on stable production. Dugald River remains resilient, and Rosebery, Century, Cannington and Golden Grove continue to underpin existing supply. Meanwhile, newly commissioned and restarted projects are beginning to add incremental tonnes. In the short term, the wet season and flooding mainly affect the timing of China's imports through disruptions to railways, ports and vessel schedules, rather than causing permanent capacity losses. Over the medium term, supply from Australia in 2027–2030 will depend on the balance between potential declines—such as the depletion of Century's resource and Cannington's lower operating rates—and growth from the ramp-up of Federation, Woodlawn, Endeavor and the Gossan Valley mining front at Golden Grove. For TCs, fluctuations in supply from Australia can affect the Asia-Pacific spot market but cannot by themselves determine the long-term global zinc concentrate balance. The market should track mine production and sales in Australia, logistics in northern Australia, China's cumulative imports, developments at overseas mines such as Kipushi, Antamina and Kazzinc, and smelter operating rates in China and overseas. Only if global net mine-supply growth remains insufficient while smelter demand stays high will supply losses in Australia translate into sustained downward pressure on TCs.

Jindal Stainless, India's largest stainless producer, said its Jajpur plant in Odisha won three awards at the 2026 Total Quality Management Convention held by the Quality Circle Forum of India's Pune chapter. Two gold awards went to projects optimising manganese recovery in 200-series melting at the AOD shop and reducing RIS defects in 300-series at the hot strip mill, with a silver award for reducing trapezoidity in grades 304 and EN 1.4307. The convention drew 132 teams from close to 30 companies. Jindal held annual melting capacity of 4.2 million tonnes as of March 2026 across 16 facilities globally, including Spain and Indonesia, on FY26 turnover of ₹429.55 billion, about $4.86 billion.

July 31, 2026 Whenever economic growth begins to weaken, many investors instinctively turn their attention to gold and silver as traditional safe-haven assets. Yet reality is more complex than the familiar "safe haven" narrative. While both precious metals tend to benefit from periods of economic uncertainty over the long term, they often follow very different patterns during recessions. Investors who understand these differences can position their portfolios more effectively. Paradoxically, the prices of both gold—and especially silver—often decline during the initial stages of a severe crisis. This is not because investors suddenly lose confidence in precious metals, but because individuals and institutions urgently need liquidity. In times of market stress, investors frequently sell their most liquid assets, including gold and silver, to meet margin calls or raise cash. History Shows That Liquidity Comes First During the Initial Phase of a Crisis The global financial crisis of 2008 provides a clear example. As the crisis intensified, the gold price fell from nearly US$1,000 to around US$700 per ounce before recovering by year-end and eventually reaching new all-time highs. Silver suffered a much sharper decline, dropping from approximately US$21 to below US$9 per ounce, a decline of more than 50%, while gold lost only about 12% during the same period. A similar pattern emerged during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Both precious metals initially declined sharply, but silver once again proved considerably more volatile, falling from around US$18 to US$12 per ounce within just a few weeks. Gold also weakened but experienced a much more moderate correction. History repeatedly demonstrates that the urgent need for liquidity can temporarily drive down the prices of both gold and silver. Yet it also shows that investors who panic and sell during these periods often miss the powerful recovery that typically follows. Once the Recovery Begins, Silver Historically Outperforms Gold This is where the second—and perhaps most important—historical pattern emerges. During the recovery phase following a recession, silver has historically outperformed gold by a considerable margin. Following the 2008 financial crisis, silver gained approximately 400% from its lows, while gold appreciated by roughly 170%. This outperformance generally begins once the urgent need for liquidity subsides and investors return to risk assets. The same phenomenon occurred after the initial COVID-19 market shock. During 2020, silver advanced by nearly 48%, while gold gained approximately 25%. One of the primary reasons for silver's stronger performance is its dual role. Gold functions primarily as a monetary asset and store of value. Silver, by contrast, combines monetary demand with substantial industrial demand. As economic conditions improve, both sources of demand recover simultaneously, providing additional support for silver prices. Why Gold Performs Well During Recessions Gold benefits from several supportive factors during economic downturns. Central banks typically lower interest rates in an effort to stimulate economic activity, reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold. At the same time, demand increases for assets without counterparty risk, particularly as confidence in equities, bonds, and sometimes even financial institutions begins to deteriorate. A review of six major U.S. recessions shows that gold prices increased during five of those downturns, declining only modestly during the 1990–1991 recession. There is, however, an important exception. If central banks aggressively raise interest rates to combat inflation—as they did in the early 1980s, when U.S. interest rates reached nearly 20%—gold can come under pressure even while the broader economy is contracting. The Great Depression: An Extreme Case A depression differs from a normal recession in both its severity and duration and is often accompanied by deflation. During the Great Depression of the 1930s, the official U.S. gold price remained fixed at US$20.67 per ounce under the gold standard. Gold's ability to preserve wealth therefore appeared not through price appreciation but through its purchasing power. As consumer prices fell by approximately 24%, gold maintained its nominal value, resulting in a significant increase in real purchasing power. In 1934, U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt raised the official gold price to US$35 per ounce, effectively increasing its value by approximately 69% overnight. This change resulted from government policy rather than market forces. At roughly the same time, the U.S. government issued Executive Order 6102, requiring private citizens to surrender much of their gold holdings. This historical episode illustrates that during severe depressions characterized by fixed exchange rates or a gold standard, government policy may exert greater influence over precious metals than normal market supply and demand. Similar developments occurred in Europe during the Napoleonic Wars, when Austria, following its defeat at the Battle of Austerlitz, devalued its currency by roughly 80% against gold. What This Means for Investors Several practical lessons emerge from history. First, short-term declines in gold—and particularly in silver—during the early stages of a crisis should not be interpreted as evidence that precious metals have failed. Rather, they reflect the market's temporary scramble for liquidity. Second, investors who maintain long-term holdings of physical gold and silver in the form of coins or bullion have historically benefited disproportionately from the subsequent recovery, with silver generally delivering the stronger rebound. Third, stagflationary environments—where weak economic growth coincides with persistent inflation, as experienced during the 1970s—have historically been particularly favorable for silver because both its monetary and industrial demand tend to strengthen simultaneously. For investors seeking to protect their wealth against the uncertainties of a recession—or even a full-scale depression—gold and silver should therefore be viewed not as short-term speculative trades, but as long-term components of a well-diversified investment portfolio. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-and-silver-during-a-recession-how-do-precious-metals-really-perform

Xingye Silver&Tin released a progress announcement on July 31 regarding a safety incident at a subsidiary, showing that: On July 30, 2026, Yinman Mining received the On-site Treatment Measures Decision Letter (No. 260 [West] Emergency Decision [2026]) issued by the Xiwu Banner Emergency Management Bureau, requiring the synchronous suspension of Yinman Mining's mineral processing tailings system. As of the disclosure of this announcement, both the mining system and the mineral processing tailings system of Yinman Mining have been suspended. The details of this accident as announced by Xingye Silver&Tin show that: At around 3:30 PM on July 26, 2026, an accident occurred during underground production construction at the mine of the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Xiwuzhumuqin Banner Yinman Mining Co., Ltd., resulting in 1 fatality and no injuries. After the accident, Yinman Mining, in accordance with the On-site Treatment Measures Decision Letter (No. 257 [West] Emergency Decision [2026]) issued by the Xiwuzhumuqin Banner Emergency Management Bureau, suspended the underground mining area. Regarding the impact on the company's production, operations, and performance: Yinman Mining is primarily engaged in the mining, processing, and sales of non-ferrous metals such as silver, tin, copper, lead, and zinc, with a production capacity of 1.65 million mt/year. In 2025, Yinman Mining recorded operating revenue of RMB3,062.0434 million, accounting for 55.12% of the company's total consolidated operating revenue, and achieved net profit of RMB1,346.2785 million. In Q1 2026, it recorded operating revenue of RMB961.5985 million, representing 45.15% of the total, with net profit of RMB474.7488 million. Currently, the cause of the accident and the reason for the fatality are still under investigation. Yinman Mining will fully cooperate with the accident investigation and subsequent work. Since the duration of the suspension at Yinman Mining cannot be determined at this time, the impact of this production halt on the company's current and full-year performance cannot be accurately estimated for now. The company will, in accordance with relevant regulations, fulfill its information disclosure obligations in a timely manner based on the progress of the accident investigation. Investors are advised to be cautious about investment risks. Performance: Xingye Silver&Tin's 2025 annual report shows that in 2025, the company realized operating revenue of RMB5,555.2536 million, a YoY increase of 30.09%; total profit of RMB2,096.237 million, up 18.75% YoY; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed company of RMB1,704.2393 million, rising 11.40% YoY. Xingye Silver&Tin's announcement shows that in 2025, the breakdown of operating revenue from the company's main mineral products as a share of overall operating revenue was as follows: ore-derived silver (RMB2,175.7825 million, 39.17%); ore-derived tin (RMB1,649.6398 million, 29.70%); ore-derived zinc (RMB975.8673 million, 17.57%); ore-derived lead (RMB220.945 million, 3.98%); ore-derived iron (RMB180.3799 million, 3.25%); ore-derived copper (RMB133.0043 million, 2.39%); ore-derived antimony (RMB100.3568 million, 1.81%); ore-derived gold (RMB82.3402 million, 1.48%); and ore-derived bismuth (RMB16.6744 million, 0.30%). Among these, the combined operating revenue from ore-derived tin and ore-derived silver accounted for 68.86%. Regarding the company's main business and key performance drivers, Xingye Silver&Tin stated in its 2025 annual report: The company is a large mining group primarily engaged in the exploration, mining, and processing of non-ferrous metals and precious metals. As of the disclosure date of this report, the company has over 20 subsidiaries, including 8 producing mining companies: Yinman Mining, Qianjinda Mining, Yubang Mining, Rongguan Mining, Xilin Mining, Rongbang Mining, Ruineng Mining, and Bosheng Mining; Atlantic Tin's Achmmach tin mine under AtlasTinSAS is in the construction phase; Tanghe Era Mining is in suspension; Yitong Mining and Yunnan Xigui are in the exploration stage. Hainan Fund is mainly engaged in equity investment management; Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) focuses on metal and mining trade, corporate mergers and acquisitions, and is responsible for expanding markets outside China and acquiring high-quality overseas mineral resources; Hainan Guomao and Tianjin Guomao mainly handle the sales of non-ferrous metal mineral products and the procurement of some raw materials; Xingye Ruijin conducts process research, technology R&D, and upgrading in areas such as exploration, mining and processing, and comprehensive tailings recycling. Tibet Shannan Antimony-Gold, Tibet Xinda Mining, and Xing'an Meng Fuxingtun Mining serve as the company's regional resource integration platforms. During the reporting period, the company successfully acquired an 85% equity stake in Yubang Mining. According to data from the World Silver Institute as of the end of 2023, Yubang Mining's single silver mine ranks first in Asia and fifth globally. This acquisition further strengthened the company's resource advantages, laying a solid resource foundation for sustainable development. Meanwhile, through its subsidiary Xingye Gold (Hong Kong), the company increased investment in overseas mineral resources, successfully acquiring a 100% equity interest in Atlantic Tin. This acquisition was a key step in implementing the company's 'going global' strategy. Based on the tin mine classification criteria for large mines in the Standard for Classification of Mineral Resource/Reserve Scales (DZ/T0400-2022), the Achmmach tin mine owned by Atlantic Tin is now equivalent to five large deposits. Through this integration of overseas tin resources, the company has further perfected its international tin layout and secured important strategic resources for long-term development. The company's main performance is derived from non-ferrous metal mining and processing operations. During the reporting period, revenue from this sector accounted for 99.64% of total 2025 operating revenue. Key factors influencing the performance of the mining and processing segment include production and sales volumes of main products, market prices, and the cost of non-ferrous metal and precious metal mining and processing operations. For the business plan, Xingye Silver&Tin stated in its 2025 annual report: 2026 is the final year of the company's '23' plan. The board of directors will closely follow the theme of high-quality development, fully implement the set work targets, continuously deepen the concept of 'trust and synergy,' and go all out to achieve the closing goals of the '23' plan. Key tasks are as follows: 1. Uphold safety and environmental protection bottom lines, use 2026, the 'Year of Safety Management Implementation,' as a lever to fully consolidate safety responsibilities, reinforce the achievements of the 'Year of Collective Safety Calm,' enhance risk anticipation and process control, and strictly prevent safety and environmental accidents to achieve safe, stable, green, and low-carbon development. 2. Comprehensively advance the construction of key projects, strengthen whole-process management of project budgeting, progress, and quality, and coordinate the implementation of projects such as Yinman Mining's 2.97 million mt expansion, Yubang Mining's 8.25 million mt expansion, the Morocco project, and the Budunyin'gen Mining (managed) project to ensure timely completion and full production, releasing capacity benefits. 3. Continuously intensify exploration and reserve expansion efforts, balance production operations with geological exploration, steadily advance exploration at existing mines and surrounding areas, accelerate resource upgrade to reserves, and constantly consolidate the resource base. 4. Deepen industrial synergy and resource integration, leveraging Inner Mongolia's core regional advantages to gradually expand overseas resource deployment; persist in focusing on silver and tin as main business directions, enriching and optimizing resource varieties. Steadily advance subsequent acquisitions and integration of Weiling Co., actively track high-quality mineral project opportunities in China and overseas, and enhance overall competitiveness through synergistic industrial mergers and acquisitions. 5. Further strengthen institutional enforcement and internal control management, ensure that all systems, processes, and management requirements are implemented effectively, and improve the company's refined management level; strengthen enforcement capacity, ensure that production plans, comprehensive budgets, and work deployments are fully carried out, and promote deep integration of corporate culture with business management. 6. Fully promote preparations for Hong Kong stock listing, accelerate the establishment of dual capital market platforms at home and abroad, enhance cross-border capital operation capabilities, provide stronger financial support for resource integration and strategy implementation, and elevate the company's high-quality sustainable development to a new level. Xingye Silver&Tin's Q1 report for this year disclosed that in January-March 2026, the company realized operating revenue of RMB2,129.8691 million, an 85.32% YoY increase; net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB1,337.6722 million, up 257.32% YoY. As of March 31, 2026, total assets were RMB19,688.8316 million, with net assets attributable to shareholders at RMB10,825.4666 million. Revenue breakdown: In January-March 2026, the revenue share of the company's main mineral products was as follows: ore-derived silver (RMB1,410.1104 million, 66.21%); ore-derived tin (RMB234.0354 million, 10.99%); ore-derived zinc (RMB228.1249 million, 10.71%); ore-derived lead (RMB71.8509 million, 3.37%); ore-derived antimony (RMB53.1029 million, 2.49%); ore-derived gold (RMB51.0181 million, 2.40%); ore-derived iron (RMB44.1733 million, 2.07%); ore-derived copper (RMB35.6489 million, 1.67%); and ore-derived indium (RMB524,100, 0.02%). Among these, the combined revenue from ore-derived tin and ore-derived silver accounted for 77.19%. Xingye Silver&Tin's Q1 report announcement stated: Operating profit for the current period increased by 238.16% compared to the previous period, total profit was up by 236.36%, and net profit attributable to the parent company's owners rose by 257.32%. The main reasons: In the reporting period, selling prices of the company's main mineral products such as silver and tin rose YoY; Yubang Mining's capacity gradually released, with a significant YoY increase in the production and sales of ore-derived silver; and a gain of RMB321 million was realized from the transfer of a 60% equity stake in Shuangyuan Nonferrous. Huaxi Securities' July 25 research report believed that: Silver's macro logic is similar to that of gold, while also possessing stronger industrial attributes, and its price is driven by a resonance of fundamental, policy, and market factors. From the core support perspective, silver's inclusion in the US 'critical minerals' list has triggered sustained capital attention and hoarding effects, becoming a key policy catalyst for price increases. Although short-term demand has pulled back, the supply-side gap remains prominent, serving as the core fundamental support for silver prices. It is expected that in the coming years, the silver supply-demand gap will continue to widen. Combined with industrial recovery demand amid an easing cycle, silver's price elasticity is significantly higher than gold's, and it is likely to rise given the resonance of a loose environment and industrial demand, with a bullish long-term outlook on silver prices. The current silver sector is in a phase of pulling back and consolidating at lows; although weighed down in the short term by US dollar strength and delayed rate cut expectations, it still offers value for medium and long-term positioning. Beneficiary stocks of silver: [Shengda Resources], [Xingye Silver&Tin].

Zimbabwe exported US$782 million worth of lithium products in the first half of 2026, representing a 230% year on year increase from US$237 million in H1 2025, according to Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube during the country's mid-year budget review. Lithium accounted for approximately 12% of Zimbabwe's total mineral export revenue, ranking behind only gold and platinum group metals (PGMs), further strengthening its position as one of the country's key export commodities. The government expects lithium's contribution to increase further following the April 2026 commissioning of Zimbabwe's first lithium sulphate plant, marking a significant step in the country's strategy to move up the battery materials value chain. Zimbabwe continues to require foreign investors, particularly Chinese mining companies, to expand downstream processing capacity within the country. As part of its beneficiation policy, Zimbabwe plans to ban lithium concentrate exports from January 2027, encouraging producers to export higher-value processed lithium products instead. According to the Ministry of Finance, 2026 lithium production is forecast at 2.14 million metric tons, slightly below the 2.2 million metric tons produced in 2025. Earlier this year, Zimbabwe temporarily suspended lithium concentrate exports in February, citing irregularities and leakages in export activities. Official data also showed Zimbabwe exported 1.13 million metric tons of lithium products in 2025, suggesting inventories have accumulated at several mining operations as export restrictions and processing capacity continue to evolve. Zimbabwe's lithium sector remains dominated by major Chinese investors, including Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, Sinomine Resource Group, Chengxin Lithium Group, Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group, and Tsingshan Holding Group, all of which have invested heavily in Zimbabwe's mining and downstream lithium processing projects. SMM Analysis: Zimbabwe is accelerating its transition from a lithium concentrate exporter to a battery materials producer through export restrictions and mandatory local beneficiation. While near-term concentrate exports may remain constrained, expanding domestic conversion capacity is expected to increase exports of higher-value lithium chemicals, reinforcing Zimbabwe's strategic role in the global EV battery supply chain.