Recycling Industry Events This Week (December. 29-31)

Recycling Industry Events This Week (December. 29-31)

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the US-Iran conflict has become the major geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing millions of tonnes of supply disruptions and raising smelting costs. Coupled with risk aversion, aluminum price volatility may intensify.

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the US-Iran conflict became the largest geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions at a scale of millions of mt, while also pushing up smelting costs. Coupled with market risk-averse sentiment, the volatility of aluminum prices may be amplified. Going forward, it is necessary to remain vigilant against risks such as escalation of conflicts, strait blockades, and raw material supply interruptions, as well as further impacts on aluminum prices from macroeconomic disturbances, and to prudently address the operational and investment risks brought about by fluctuations in the supply chain.

This month, Rio Tinto stated during its earnings conference call that with all its owned projects progressing as planned, the company's lithium production capacity is expected to reach 200,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually by 2028. The increase will primarily stem from the Fenix project, the expansion of Sal de Vida, and the commissioning of the Rincon and Nemaska projects. By that time, total output will exceed three times the 57,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate production achieved in 2025. Rio Tinto previously announced its entry into the ranks of major lithium producers upon acquiring Arcadium, with plans to increase capacity to over 200,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually by 2028. The company has now confirmed its focus on achieving this target, positioning lithium as a “significant” component within its business structure. Expansion Projects: The mechanical portion of the 10,000-ton-per-year expansion at Fenix, one of the Argentine salt lake projects, has been completed, with commissioning progress reaching 60%. The mechanical vapor recompression unit has been put into operation to support the planned first production run. The first production from the expanded capacity remains on track to commence in the second half of 2026. At the new Sal de Vida project in Argentina, with an annual capacity of 15,000 metric tons, the mechanical works have been completed and commissioning is 40% complete. Production is expected to commence in the second half of 2026, projected to increase Rio Tinto's lithium output to 61,000–64,000 metric tons LCE in 2026. Regarding future projects: The Rincon project in Argentina, with an annual capacity of 60,000 metric tons, is progressing smoothly with its initial 3,000-metric-ton-per-year plant. It is expected to reach full capacity by year-end. The 57,000-metric-ton expansion plant has completed commissioning and is currently being started up, with first production planned for 2028. It will reach full production after a three-year ramp-up period. The mine has an estimated 40-year lifespan, with operating costs positioned in the top quartile of the industry cost curve. The Nemaska project in Canada features an integrated lithium hydroxide production line with a designed capacity of 28,000 metric tons per year. The mine's engineering design is complete, with construction progress at 60%. The lithium hydroxide refinery is scheduled to commence commissioning in 2026 and achieve first production in 2028. For the Whabouchi and Galaxy mines, strategic business and capital discipline reviews are underway with Canadian partners to determine the development of one of these mines. A decision is expected in the first half of 2026 to secure an integrated spodumene supply solution for the lithium hydroxide plant by 2028. In Chile, Rio Tinto anticipates closing agreements signed with state-owned mining companies Codelco and Enami in the first half of 2026. Rio Tinto has been selected as the private partner to develop Chile's two largest undeveloped lithium resources, with projects advancing upon agreement completion.

February 25, 2026— AMG Critical Materials Inc. announced adjusted EBITDA of $235 million for the year 2025, representing a 40% increase from $168 million in 2024, primarily driven by strong performance in its antimony and engineering businesses. The company concluded the year with a robust balance sheet, highlighted by total liquidity of $484 million as of December 31, 2025. The refinery in Bitterfeld has continued to ramp up its production, producing in specification battery-grade lithium hydroxide and progressing with customer qualification as planned.AMG has dispatched kilogram samples to all cathode active materials (CAM) manufacturers with a footprint in Europe at the end of 2025, initiating the first stage of qualification. Based on customer feedback, it is anticipateed that it will move on to the next stage of qualification involving the shipment of tons in the first half of 2026, and expect to reach full production capacity in the second half of 2026. AMG Lithium is starting engineering on a 5,000-ton lithium carbonate to lithium hydroxide conversion plant at its Bitterfeld site. This plant will be designed to accept recycled lithium carbonate, and convert it to technical-grade hydroxide for use in Bitterfeld’s main upgrading facility. The plant’s capital cost is expected to be $50 million, and as announced in December 2025, 20% of the costs of the plant will be supported by a funding grant from the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. The fourth quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA decreased 87% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily due to the lower lithium concentrate volumes in the current quarter and higher mining costs related to poor quality ore. Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA decreased from $24 million to $12 million, driven primarily by the 16% decrease in annual average lithium prices in 2025 compared to 2024, as well as the lower lithium concentrate sales volumes in the current period. During the fourth quarter of 2025, a total of 28,326 dry metric tons (“dmt”) of lithium concentrates were sold, 84% more than the 15,409 dmt in the third quarter of 2025, but 15% less than the 33,492 dmt in the fourth quarter of 2024. During the quarter, poor quality ore caused recoveries to drop, reducing production volumes. During 2025, a total of 69,180 dmt of lithium concentrates were sold, 22% less than the 88,966 dmt in 2024, due primarily to the failure of one piece of equipment in the second quarter of 2025 associated with our expansion project. The average realized sales price was $689/dmt CIF China for the fourth quarter of 2025, and the average realized sales price for the year was $632/dmt CIF China. The average cost per ton for the current quarter was $489/dmt CIF China. The average cost per ton increased from $290/dmt in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to the lower volumes and higher cost of mining activities in the current quarter. The average cost per ton for full year 2025 was $488/dmt CIF China compared to $458/dmt CIF China for 2024.

On February 28, Israeli Air Force fighter jets crossed thousands of kilometers of airspace to conduct a daylight precision strike on the center of Tehran, Iran's capital, drawing significant market attention. How will this conflict impact zinc concentrates? .

SMM Feburary 26 News: This week, nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices were basically flat, while lithium carbonate prices fell before rising again.

SMM, February 28th， Driven by the global clean energy transition, the energy storage industry is achieving steady growth. Its core value lies in effectively mitigating the inherent intermittency and volatility of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power, providing critical assurance for stable clean electricity output. This development trend will sustainably drive demand for key metals across the energy storage supply chain. As one of the core materials, aluminum applications in energy storage systems primarily focus on aluminum sheets, strips, foils, and extrusions. I. Scale of Aluminum Consumption in ESS According to SMM calculations, each 1GWh energy storage system consumes approximately 1,780 tons of aluminum , of which aluminum extrusions account for about 44%, aluminum sheets and strips account for about 39%, and aluminum foil accounts for about 18%. From the perspective of industry growth drivers, global energy storage cell production is entering a period of rapid growth: According to SMM estimates, the global demand for energy storage cells will be approximately 559 GWh in 2025, and is expected to reach 779 GWh in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 39%; even as the base expands, the annual demand from 2027 to 2030 will still maintain a growth rate of over 20%. In terms of aluminum demand, Chinese enterprises dominate the energy storage market, driving increased domestic aluminum consumption. SMM research indicates China's energy storage battery cabinet shipments will reach approximately 400GWh in 2025, accounting for over 80% of global share. Based on SMM's calculation of 1,780 tons of aluminum per GWh for energy storage systems and global battery cabinet shipments, the global aluminum demand for energy storage systems in 2025 will reach 850,000 tons, with China consuming approximately 710,000 tons. Domestic demand for aluminum in energy storage is projected to increase by 280,000 tons in 2026. However, it should be noted that with the continuous iteration of large-cell technology, the unit consumption of aluminum structural components in energy storage systems has room for reduction. In the long term, there is still potential for optimizing aluminum consumption per unit. II. Calculation of Aluminum Profile Materials per Unit of ESS Due to design variations across different energy storage products, this section separates aluminum consumption calculations for energy storage cells from other system components . 1.Core Application Scenarios of Aluminum Materials in EES Aluminum materials, with advantages such as lightweight, corrosion resistance, and excellent processing performance, have been deeply integrated into the core components of ESS, with their main applications concentrated in three major areas: Energy Storage Cell Component: Primarily used for cell aluminum foil, aluminum casings, and tabs. Pack Component : Primarily used for battery trays, liquid cooling plates, battery end plates, and battery enclosures, etc. Energy Storage System Component: Main applications include energy storage system enclosures, radiators, etc. 2.Aluminum Consumption in Energy Storage Cells Aluminum usage in energy storage cells primarily involves battery foil, aluminum casings, and tabs. Currently, the aluminum consumption per cell is approximately 615t/GWh, with aluminum foil accounting for 300-330 t/GWh. 3.Aluminum Consumption in ESS Due to variations in technical approaches and application scenarios, different manufacturers employ distinct design solutions for energy storage systems. When calculating aluminum consumption, we use industry average values: In industrial, commercial, and residential energy storage projects, each rack is on average configured with 4.5 battery packs. In grid-side energy storage projects, each rack averages 8 battery packs, with each system containing an average of 12 rack. The aluminum components of the battery pack include the tray, liquid cooling plate, box body, and end plate. The structure of the battery tray is similar to that of new energy vehicle battery trays, but the product specifications are smaller and the cross-sectional design is more simplified. SMM calculates the aluminum consumption of a single battery pack based on the average weight data of components provided by mainstream aluminum production enterprises. In addition, the core equipment of the energy storage system, the power conversion system (PCS), and its supporting radiator also need to consume aluminum materials.While aluminum enclosures exist for ESS, market research indicates steel enclosures currently dominate the market, with aluminum enclosures holding less than 20% market share. The weight range per unit is from several hundred kilograms to 2 tons. Based on the above parameter calculations: the comprehensive aluminum consumption of industrial, commercial, and residential energy storage systems is 2030 tons/GWh,while for grid-side energy storage systems it is 1,720 tons/GWh. Weighted by the shipment share of different energy storage system types, the final comprehensive aluminum consumption for energy storage systems is calculated as 1,780 t/GWh. 4.Consumption Structure of Aluminum Materials in Energy Storage Systems From a production process perspective, the manufacturing methods for core components such as aluminum casings and liquid cooling plates encompass multiple pathways including sheet metal stamping, profile processing, and casting. This section breaks down the consumption structure of aluminum material categories in energy storage systems based on the proportion of mainstream process applications: aluminum extrusions account for approximately 44%, aluminum sheets and strips account for approximately 39%, and aluminum foil accounts for approximately 18%.

During the two weeks around Chinese New Year (2026.02.13-02.26), the solid-state battery industry achieved breakthroughs in three key areas—policy, standards, and mass production: the National Energy Administration explicitly identified solid-state batteries as a key focus for energy technology competition for the first time, and the national standard for automotive solid-state batteries entered the countdown to release (scheduled for official rollout in July).