On June 9, customs data showed that China exported 10.341 million mt of steel in May 2026, an increase of 844,000 mt MoM, up 8.9% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to May reached 44.554 million mt, down 8.1% YoY. China imported 451,000 mt of steel in May 2026, a decrease of 14,000 mt MoM, down 3.1% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to May totaled 2.255 million mt, declining 12.2% YoY. Table1 – Steel Import and Export Data Overview, January-May Source: SMM Steel Exports in May Crossed 10 Million mt MoM According to SMM's export schedule survey for May, planned HRC exports that month stood at 1.1435 million mt, up 213,500 mt from actual April exports, a 23% MoM increase. Meanwhile, SMM export order data showed that from March to April, domestic export prices held a strong advantage in international markets, and overseas demand for semi-finished products remained present. Export orders reached a periodical high in mid-April, providing some support for May exports exceeding 10 million mt. Table 2– China Total Steel Exports Source: SMM Steel Imports in May Declined MoM On the import side, steel imports stood at 451,000 mt in May, edging down MoM. From January to May, China imported a total of 2.255 million mt of steel, down 12.2% YoY; net steel exports reached 42.299 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global manufacturing diverges notably; US accelerates sharply while domestic new export orders slide from highs Global manufacturing activity showed marked divergence in May 2026. The latest PMI data indicates the US accelerated strongly, rising to 54% from 52.7% in April, though cost surges driven by inflation posed significant headwinds. The Eurozone PMI dropped to 47.5% from 48.8%. India continued to demonstrate resilience: its May manufacturing PMI reached 55%, a three-month high, fueled by robust domestic demand, infrastructure spending, and new business growth. China's new export orders index came in at 48.6% in May, down 1.7 percentage points MoM, reflecting some weakening in export demand. 2. Overseas supply continues to decline, particularly evident in the Middle East World Steel Association data shows global crude steel production fell 1.9% YoY to 153.4 million mt in April 2026. Excluding China, output in the rest of the world slid 4.25% MoM, with production schedule paces diverging significantly across regions. Among markets outside China, India and Vietnam maintained high production levels, mainly benefiting from the structural ramp-up dividends brought by new capacity commissioning. Meanwhile, the US and Germany also stood out in April: the US was directly boosted by seasonal Q2 production schedule expansions in high-end manufacturing sectors such as automobiles, while Germany's four consecutive months of production rebound essentially reflected a strategic inventory build by steel mills in response to raw material price fluctuations. In contrast, Middle East production continued its steep YoY plunge during the month, mainly attributable to wartime energy controls and systemic logistical paralysis triggered by the US-Iran conflict and the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, Middle East output remains in contraction. As original recipient countries face a lack of stable supply sources, coupled with the digestion of previous low-priced resources, China's steel export orders may encounter structural opportunities. Figure 1 – Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price advantage remains notable, but Southeast Asian markets show price-cutting behavior to seize market share As of June 5, 2026, HRC export quotations (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS stood at $550/mt, $645/mt, and $535/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export quotation (FOB) was $501/mt. China's HRC export quotations currently stand at discounts of -$49/mt, -$144/mt, and -$34/mt against these countries, keeping its steel export price advantage distinct. Recently, however, Southeast Asia entered its off-season; with domestic demand unable to support elevated prices, there are signs of price reductions to capture orders from the international market and disperse domestic pressures. The price spread between China and Southeast Asia has narrowed somewhat. Figure 2 – HRC Quotations in Key Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export orders dropped notably in May, with a related slowdown after concentrated procurement According to SMM's latest survey of steel mill export schedules, planned HRC exports this month stand at 1.03 million mt, roughly steady compared with actual exports last month. SMM steel export order data indicates that, affected by holidays, export orders in May declined noticeably from April on a MoM basis. Orders for both flat products and long products slipped, signaling that overseas buyers have slowed their procurement pace after the earlier round of concentrated procurement. Figure 3 – SMM Steel Export Order Volumes Source: SMM 5. HRC faced the most cases entering the enforcement stage in May After the concentrated final rulings of anti-dumping cases in April, anti-dumping cases decreased somewhat in May, involving products including HRC, coiled rebar, section steel, and steel pipes. Specific cases and their affected volumes are shown in the table below: Table – New Anti-Dumping Cases in May Source: SMM Taking all factors into consideration, as the new export orders index narrows somewhat, Southeast Asian markets cut prices to compete for orders, and the significant contraction in export order volumes over the previous two months gradually feeds through to the shipment stage, the cushioning effect from earlier orders will weaken considerably. SMM expects that actual total steel exports in June will face some downward pressure. At the same time, as overseas supply of previously low-priced materials is absorbed and Chinese prices remain competitive, domestic export orders may show a bottoming-out recovery trend. Recent feedback from the Southeast Asian market also indicates new procurement demand for semi-finished products. Figure 4 – Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Disclaimer on Data Sources: Except for publicly available information, all other data herein are processed and derived by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. The content is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original work published on this official account. For requests regarding reproduction, whitelist access, cooperation, or other matters, please contact us. Without permission, the content shall not be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to third parties or licensed for third-party use. 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The Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) reported that global recycled steel consumption grew by 4.5% year-on-year to 480 million metric tons (mt) in 2025 across key markets, even as global crude steel output fell by 1.9% to approximately 1.85 billion mt. Global direct reduced iron (DRI) production also climbed 4.9% to 153 million mt, largely driven by India's 7.4% output increase to 58.9 million mt. In terms of trade flows, the EU-27 and the US remained the largest scrap exporters at 16.68 million mt and 11.76 million mt, respectively, while Turkey retained its position as the top importer with 18.76 million mt despite a 6.6% volume decline. Pakistan posted exceptionally strong import growth, surging 39.8% to 3.02 million mt. This decoupling of scrap consumption from total crude steel production underscores the accelerating global shift toward lower-carbon electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking. The sustained demand for scrap and DRI signals structurally tighter future raw material supplies, which will continually reshape global trade dynamics as countries secure resources for decarbonization.

Tata Steel’s latest performance shows a company moving from a traditional volume-based steel business toward a more margin-focused and transformation-driven model. It is driving growth and profitability, financial performance is recovering through better margins and cost control, while the company’s key business activities are increasingly focused on downstream expansion, raw material security and low-carbon steelmaking.

[SMM Steel] Global crude steel production declined 1.9% y-o-y to 153.4 million mt in April 2026, while January-April output fell 2.0% y-o-y to 613.3 million mt, according to worldsteel data. China’s April crude steel output dropped 2.8% y-o-y to 83.6 million mt, while India, South Korea, and the US recorded growth of 3.9%, 4.8%, and 9.4% respectively. EU-27 output declined 1.8% y-o-y to 11.0 million mt, while CIS production fell sharply by 13.4% y-o-y. Market participants said global steel production remains under pressure from weak demand and ongoing regional trade and geopolitical uncertainties.

On May 9, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.498 million mt of steel in April 2026, up 363,000 mt MoM, a 4.0% increase MoM; cumulative steel exports from January to April totaled 34.214 million mt, down 9.7% YoY. In April 2026, China imported 465,000 mt of steel, down 47,000 mt MoM, a 9.2% decrease MoM; cumulative steel imports from January to April totaled 1.804 million mt, down 13.4% YoY. China's Steel Exports Continued to Increase MoM in April According to SMM's April export schedule survey, HRC export plans for the month were 851,000 mt, up 67,000 mt from actual exports in March, an 8.5% increase MoM. Meanwhile, SMM export order data showed that as production gradually resumed in March and ex-China demand recovered somewhat, combined with the semi-finished products gap caused by the US-Iran conflict, China leveraged its perfect price advantage and superior geographical location to effectively capture Southeast Asian semi-finished products import demand. This led to export orders increasing by over 30% MoM in March. However, since the incremental data was mostly semi-finished products, the impact may become more apparent when the late-month product-specific data is released. China's Steel Imports Increased MoM in March Import side, from January to March, China's cumulative steel imports totaled 1.804 million mt, down 13.4% YoY; net steel exports reached 32.41 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook According to S&P Global data, the global manufacturing PMI in April 2026 was 52.6%, up 1.3 percentage points MoM, operating above 50% for 13 consecutive months. The US was in strong expansion territory, and other European and American countries were also in expansion territory. In April, China's manufacturing new export orders index was 50.3%, up 4.1 percentage points MoM, finally returning to expansion territory after 24 months. World Steel Association monitoring data showed that global crude steel production in March 2026 fell 4.2% YoY to 159.9 million mt. China's production pullback was mainly driven by steel mills proactively cutting production as profits were squeezed. Excluding China, global production in other regions also declined 0.55% MoM, with significant divergence in production schedule pace across regions. In markets outside China, India maintained high production schedules, boosted by fiscal year-end target sprints, up 9.4% YoY. In contrast, the Middle East (particularly Iran) saw production plunge 33.5% YoY. The continued contraction in Middle Eastern production has created structural opportunities for China's steel exports, particularly semi-finished products exports. As of May 8, 2026, HRC export prices (FOB) for India, Turkey, and the CIS were $507/mt, $640/mt, and $525/mt respectively, while China's HRC export price (FOB) was $507/mt. Currently, China's HRC export prices were -$73/mt, -$133/mt, and -$18/mt compared to these countries respectively. The price spread advantage showed no significant change MoM. Overall, China's steel export price advantage remains significant. Chart 1 - Global Major Market HRC Prices Based on SMM's latest steel mill export order schedule, HRC export plans for this month were 1.1435 million mt, up 213,500 mt from actual exports last month, a 23% increase MoM. According to SMM steel export order data, affected by holidays, steel export orders in April weakened slightly by 0.57% MoM from March. However, it was also learned that shipping to the Middle East is gradually recovering, with some cargo currently being unloaded at Fujairah Port in the UAE and then transported overland to other Middle Eastern countries. Slab orders destined for Southeast Asia also increased notably in April, with shipping dates mostly in May-June. Taking all factors into consideration, with the new export orders index returning to expansion territory, export price advantages remaining significant, and strong export order performance, SMM expects China's steel exports to continue increasing in May, with semi-finished products continuing to contribute the dominant force! Chart 2 - SMM Steel Export Order Volume Note: This article is original content of this official account. For reprinting, whitelisting, or cooperation needs, please contact us. Without permission, the content above shall not be reprinted, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or disclosed to third parties in any other form, nor shall third parties be licensed to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will take legal measures to pursue infringement liability, including but not limited to demanding contractual breach liability, return of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses.

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

In March 2026, the global steel market experienced a fierce geopolitical "sudden chill." According to the latest data from WSA, global crude steel production in March fell by 4.2% year-on-year to 159.9 million tons. The US-Iran conflict that erupted on Feb 28, and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have completely disrupted the spring recovery rhythm of the global steel supply chain, with the shadow of energy crises and logistical interruptions rapidly spreading worldwide.

According to the World Steel Association, global crude steel production for the 71 reporting countries fell 4.2% year-on-year in March 2026 to 159.9 million metric tons. While production recovered 12.8% from February, the annual decline reflects broader industrial slowdowns. India remains a global outlier with consistent growth, while European and Japanese outputs remain stagnant.

On April 14, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.135 million mt of steel in March 2026, up 1.298 million mt MoM, a 16.6% increase MoM; cumulative steel exports from January to March totaled 24.717 million mt, down 9.9% YoY. China imported 512,000 mt of steel in March 2026, up 143,000 mt MoM; cumulative steel imports from January to March totaled 1.339 million mt, down 14.1% YoY. China's Steel Exports Increased MoM in March Due to fewer days in February, combined with the Chinese New Year holiday and other factors, steel exports saw a seasonal rebound in March. Earlier SMM survey data on export order-taking also hinted at this trend — domestic sellers gradually resumed taking orders from mid-to-late January, with export order-taking maintaining a relatively high growth rate MoM. On the other hand, the global manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 51.2%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, running above 50% for two consecutive months, with Asia, Europe, and the Americas all rising MoM. China's Steel Imports Increased MoM in March Import side, China's cumulative steel imports from January to March totaled 1.339 million mt, down 14.1% YoY; net steel exports reached 23.378 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook According to the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in March 2026 was 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM, running above 50% for 11 consecutive months, driven by some economies in Europe, the Americas, and Asia, while Middle East geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions persisted. China's new export orders index for the manufacturing sector was 49.1% in February, up 4.1 percentage points MoM, showing a relatively notable recovery MoM. Data monitored by the World Steel Association showed that global crude steel production in February 2026 fell 2.2% YoY to 141.8 million mt. Among them, the pullback in China's production was mainly due to physical shutdowns during the Chinese New Year holiday and post-holiday high inventory forcing steel mills to actively cut hot metal production. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world also declined significantly by 8.75% MoM, with notable divergence in production schedule paces across regions — the most prominent being the Middle East, where output dropped markedly due to geopolitical conflicts and tariffs. The contraction in ex-China production, particularly in the Middle East, created opportunities for China's exports, especially semi-finished products. Chart 1 - Iran's Export Data by Product Category As of April 13, 2026, HRC export prices (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $505/mt, $625/mt, and $495/mt respectively, while China's HRC export price (FOB) was $485/mt. Currently, China's HRC export price was +$20/mt, +$140/mt, and +$10/mt lower than those countries respectively. This shows that the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has pushed up ex-China steel costs far more than in China , further highlighting China's steel export price advantage. Chart 2 - Global Major Market HRC Prices Based on SMM's latest steel mill export scheduling data, HRC export planned volume this month was 851,000 mt, up 67,000 mt from last month's actual exports, an increase of 8.5% MoM. According to SMM steel export order-taking data, as production gradually resumed in and outside China, steel export order-taking in March increased 13.98% MoM from February. Due to the gap left by Iran's exports to Southeast Asia, the most notable increase was in semi-finished products, while the increase in finished products was relatively limited. Taking all factors into consideration, with order-taking and shipping gradually recovering, SMM expects steel exports in April to continue rebounding MoM. However, differences across product categories may emerge, which is expected to result in relatively limited incremental volume in the General Administration of Customs data released on the 8th, while the product-specific data released on the 20th may show relatively strong performance in semi-finished products. Chart 3 - SMM Steel Export Order Taking VolumeData Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original article of this official account. For any needs regarding reprinting, whitelisting, or cooperation, please contact us. Without permission, the above content shall not be reprinted, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or disclosed to any third party in any other form, nor shall any third party be licensed to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will take legal measures to pursue infringement liability, including but not limited to claiming contractual liability for breach, return of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses.

The World Steel Association reported on March 25, 2026, that while global crude steel production fell by 2.2% in February, India’s production surged by 7.7% year-on-year to reach 13.6 million tonnes. This growth is driven by the government's aggressive infrastructure spending and the "Make in India" initiative, which has bolstered domestic steel consumption. The increase in Indian output helps offset production declines in Russia and South America, as the country moves toward its national goal of 300 million tonnes of annual capacity by 2030.