Canadian miner First Quantum Minerals plans to invest about $5.25 billion in the Taca-Taca copper project in Argentina. The development is expected to create roughly 4,000 construction jobs and 2,000 long-term operational positions. Analysts say the project could become an important new source of global copper supply.

The PSJ Cobre Mendocino copper project has applied for Argentina’s Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), with planned investment of around $630 million. If approved, it would become the first major metal mining project in Mendoza province. The development could strengthen Argentina’s position in global copper supply.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,474.5/mt, initially fluctuating rangebound and reaching $13,527/mt. Later, the center of copper prices gradually shifted downward, touching $13,290/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $13,296/mt, with a gain of 0.28%. Trading volume reached 25,300 lots, and open interest stood at 315,000 lots, down by 497 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing their positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 104,230 yuan/mt, quickly rising to 104,520 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward, bottoming out at 103,100 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 103,280 yuan/mt, with a gain of 0.45%. Trading volume reached 77,700 lots, and open interest stood at 202,000 lots, down by 2,150 lots from the previous trading day, also characterized by bears reducing their positions.

On May 25 (Sunday), the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its latest outlook report that driven by the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and rapid industrial growth in Asia, global demand for copper cathode is expected to surge significantly by 2050. While China remains the dominant consumer, emerging economies such as India and Vietnam are poised to reshape the market. The IEA indicated that global copper supply will peak by the end of the 2020s and then decline sharply due to falling ore grades and depleting reserves. The IEA noted that while projects in Africa and Mongolia will boost near-term production, long-term challenges have raised concerns about meeting growing demand. The agency stated that by 2035, global copper supply will be significantly lower than demand. Declining ore grades, rising project costs, and a sharp slowdown in new discoveries are driving the widening supply gap, posing severe challenges for the clean energy transition. Global production of critical energy minerals is on the rise, but the IEA warned that by 2035, the supply of copper and lithium may fall far short of demand. In its latest outlook, the IEA pointed out that rising project costs and a slowdown in resource discoveries are major risks to achieving clean energy goals.

Alejandro Tapi, the head of Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, stated at a Chilean investment conference held in New York on Thursday that Chile needs to make greater changes in regulation and law to boost investment. Chile is the world's largest copper producer, accounting for nearly a quarter of global copper supply in 2024. Miners complain about the country's lengthy and delayed regulatory procedures. With declining ore grades in the country and increasing global demand, substantial investment is needed to boost production and help offset global shortages. "A significant increase in copper demand could attract substantial new investment to Chile, provided we can ensure legal certainty, fiscal stability, and a modern, faster permitting system." "I want to outline the core message: by 2050, global copper demand will increase by 70% from current levels. If we want to seize this enormous opportunity, growth, permitting, and environmental legislation should be an urgent priority." He added, "This is a regulatory issue, and I believe we can improve it to unlock investment." Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, has announced that BHP will invest US$10 billion in the country if environmental permits are approved. BHP stated that it will commence a 10-year investment plan to optimize its concentrator with US$2 billion. According to data from Chile's National Copper Commission, Chile's copper production increased by 4.9% to 5.5 million mt in 2024. Escondida produced 1.28 million mt in 2024. BHP stated that global copper demand was 31 million mt in 2023 and is expected to increase by 1 million mt annually until 2035. The Chilean Congress is passing a bill that will expedite several permitting procedures.

According to SMM, Alejandro Tapi, the head of Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, stated at a Chilean investment conference held in New York on Thursday that Chile needs to make greater changes in regulation and law to promote investment. Chile is the world's largest copper producer, accounting for nearly a quarter of global copper supply in 2024. Miners have complained about the country's lengthy and delayed regulatory procedures. With declining ore grades in the country and increasing global demand, substantial investment is needed to boost production and help offset the global shortage.

According to media reports, copper scrap that had been piling up for weeks in Salt Lake City, US, has finally started to clear, largely due to progress in the China-US trade negotiations. Affected by the previous trade disputes, copper scrap exports from the US had almost ground to a halt, resulting in up to 300,000 pounds of copper scrap being forced to accumulate in the yard of Utah Metal Works Inc. This copper scrap came from old air conditioners, demolished buildings, and rusty cars. Now, with the US and China temporarily reducing each other's tariffs, US scrap metal merchants are striving to resume copper scrap exports to China. Due to its durability, malleability, and electrical conductivity, copper has long been widely used in the construction, transportation, and power industries. In recent years, it has also been used in the manufacturing of EVs, green energy plants, and data centers. In recent years, as copper demand continues to rise while copper mine production becomes increasingly tight, copper scrap has played a crucial role in the global supply, accounting for about one-third of the total. For a long time, US copper scrap exports to China have been a vital part of the global copper supply chain. Last year, one-fifth of the copper scrap imports by Asian smelters came from the US. China is the world's largest producer of copper cathode, accounting for more than half of global production. As a major exporter of copper scrap, the US exported 600,000 mt of copper scrap last year, a scale comparable to some of the world's largest copper mines, with more than half of it sold to China. Although tariffs have temporarily decreased, it is still unclear whether this will be enough to prompt US merchants to re-export the accumulated copper scrap. Analysts point out that the profit margins for copper scrap import businesses are very thin, making it difficult to import copper at any tariff level. The trade disputes have disrupted the entire copper scrap market. Data shows that the price of No. 2 copper scrap supplied by the US has seen a discount of 92.5¢ per pound compared to futures prices, the largest price spread ever recorded. In addition to trade restrictions, the price structure of US copper scrap has also dampened the purchase willingness of international buyers. Due to previous threats by US President Trump to impose import tariffs on copper, US copper prices have been significantly higher than those in other parts of the world this year. Some commodity giants have taken advantage of this to export copper to the US from around the world, profiting from the price difference. The pricing of US copper scrap relies on the futures prices of the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex). Faced with the relatively high prices, overseas buyers are generally deterred. Some traders have tried to shift their focus to other regions, such as Japan, but these markets are not enough to fill the gap left by China.

On April 23, at the CCIE-2025SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo — Main Forum, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., SMM Metal Trading Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., co-sponsored by Jiangxi Copper Corporation and Yingtan Land Port Holding Co., Ltd., and specially co-organized by Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Xinhuang Group and Zhongtiaoshan Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., Ben Knoefler, Chairman of the Board of KCI Group, analyzed the global copper market in 2025. The growing global demand conflicts with limited supply; copper is now a strategic asset for electrification and digital growth; this article explores demand drivers, supply risks, and strategies. ► Demand Drivers — A Copper-Intensive Future • Renewable Energy: 3.6 mt of copper per megawatt (wind energy), copper in solar inverters; • EVs: 83 kg of copper per EV, compared to 20 kg for traditional vehicles; • Infrastructure: Urbanization, smart cities, and green buildings; • Growth Prospects: 22% CAGR for EVs, 8.4% CAGR for renewable energy. ► Supply Constraints — Widening Supply Gap • Aging Mines and Declining Ore Grades: Most large existing mines are experiencing declining copper production per mt of ore. • Insufficient New Project Pipeline: Mine development takes over 10 years, and there is underinvestment in new supply. • Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks: Political instability, environmental regulations, and permit delays hinder production. • Underinvestment: Weak capital investment for decades has slowed exploration and project development. • Smelters face significant challenges in maintaining production. ► Price Outlook — Bullish on Copper Prices • Short-term: Citigroup expects prices to reach $10,000 to $12,000 per mt. • Medium-term: In 2025, copper prices may fluctuate between $8,800 and $9,500 per mt. • Long-term: With the energy transition, prices are expected to exceed $15,000 per mt. • (Price Trends) Driven by structural demand, tight supply, and tariff factors. ► Strategic Responses — Capturing Value in a Tight Supply Market • Target high-grade small and medium-sized deposits. • Focus on regions with easier approvals and strategic demand. • Align exploration efforts with industrial off-taker needs. • Act with a venture capitalist mindset — be flexible and act quickly. ► Unlocking the Potential of Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining (ASM) — An Underutilized Lever in Copper Mining Challenges: • High Initial Investment Costs: Unlike gold or tin, copper mining requires significant infrastructure. • Regulatory Hurdles: ASM faces difficulties in complying with environmental and labor regulations. • Market Access Issues: Informal supply chains make scaling up production difficult. • ASM lacks the facilities or financial support to improve raw material quality and benefit from "economies of scale." Opportunities: • ASM accounts for a relatively small share of global copper supply but plays a significant role in global gold (20%), tin (25%), and tantalum (26%) supply. • To date, there are no statistics or registries on ASM copper production, even in Peru, a major global copper producer. • Considering data on other minerals and metals, ASM has significant potential. • ASM can quickly fill supply gaps due to accessible resources and market availability. ► Conclusion — Copper's Strategic Positioning Copper is an attractive investment (with a gap between demand and supply). In a copper bull market, while only a few companies can seize opportunities, most are not taking action to secure future business/supply. Recommendations: • Invest in small-scale mining operations to bring copper to market faster. • Secure direct supply through long-term agreements/micro-level investments with mines. • Focus on high-grade deposits accessible to individuals and ASM, engage in strategic M&A, and promote sustainable mining. Final Outlook — Seizing the Strategic Future of the Copper Industry • Demand growth outpaces supply growth — structural shortages will persist until 2035+; • Long-term prices remain bullish but with cyclical fluctuations; • Strategic, flexible investment models are most likely to benefit; • In an increasingly copper-driven economic environment, first movers will gain a competitive advantage. 》Click to view the special report on the CCIE-2025SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo.

On April 24, at the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference & Copper Industry Expo - Secondary Copper Industry Green Development Forum, Zhang Junbing, Director of the Secondary Copper Business Department of Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd., elaborated on the downstream consumption status of secondary copper in China.

On April 23, at the CCIE-2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo - Main Forum , hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), SMM Metal Trading Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., with Jiangxi Copper Corporation and Yingtan Inland Port Holding Co., Ltd. as main sponsors, Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. as a special co-organizer, and New Huang Group and Zhongtiaoshan Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. as co-organizers , SMM Big Data Director Jianhua Ye shared insights on the theme "Copper: Micro Drivers and Macro Volatility." Macro - Unpredictable Dynamics The manufacturing PMI of major global economies mostly remained below 50. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and US tariff policies, the copper/gold ratio declined, reflecting strong market risk aversion sentiment. The US economy's "stagnation," "inflation," and "recession" disrupted global asset prices. He analyzed data changes, including the US long-term and short-term Treasury yields, US non-farm payroll changes (previous values), the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the University of Michigan Current Conditions Index, the University of Michigan Expectations Index, the US Markit Manufacturing PMI (final value), and the US Markit Services PMI: Business Activity (final value). Key economic indicators in Europe began to recover, and a large-scale infrastructure investment fund was established to boost the economy. He elaborated on the gradual reduction of Eurozone interest rates and the slowdown in the decline of Eurozone construction and retail confidence. China's domestic consumer market needs further stimulation, while the export market will face greater challenges, and local bond issuance has accelerated. He discussed the rising inventory area in the real estate sector, the continued negative growth in construction and completion areas, as well as export data and monthly local bond issuance. The US reciprocal tariffs, anchored on the "trade deficit," aim to address the $36 trillion+ US debt, causing significant market volatility. At 4:00 AM Beijing time on April 3, reciprocal tariffs were imposed on approximately 60 countries with the largest trade imbalances with the US, with rates far exceeding market expectations. An additional 10% baseline tariff will take effect at 12:01 AM ET on April 5, and reciprocal tariffs will take effect at 12:01 AM ET on April 9. Canada and Mexico are excluded from this round of tariffs. Previously delayed tariffs will soon be implemented, and goods compliant with the USMCA will continue to be exempt. Steel, aluminum, automobiles & parts, as well as copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber, and energy products, which are already subject to a 25% tariff under Section 232, are not affected by the reciprocal tariffs. Supply: Global Copper Supply Tightening The shortage of copper concentrates has intensified, and the short-term supply-demand structure is unlikely to improve. He analyzed the projected global copper concentrate supply-demand balance from 2021 to 2030 (including supply and demand disruption rates), annual long-term contract benchmark TC for copper concentrates, and the comparative advantages of copper smelting raw materials. In 2024, US exports of secondary copper raw materials are expected to exceed 900,000 mt, equivalent to approximately 700,000 mt of metal content. In the long term, China's copper scrap supply will increasingly rely on domestic production growth, with a higher proportion flowing to smelters. Under tariff expectations, COMEX prices are strongly leading, with the US siphoning off global copper cathode. He elaborated on the LME-COMEX copper price spread, the ratio of LME registered warrants to cancelled warrants, visible copper cathode inventories at the three major global exchanges, and total COMEX copper cathode inventories. China's imports of copper cathode from Chile and Peru have significantly decreased, while the proportion from Africa continues to expand. Based on the share of China's major copper cathode import countries, he reached the above conclusion. With the decline in imported copper content, domestic copper cathode inventories are expected to decrease rapidly. He introduced perspectives from SMM China's copper cathode production, spot import profit/loss & Yangshan copper premiums, China's copper cathode imports, and total domestic social inventories. Demand: Divergence in End-Use Demand Structure Although dependence on US trade is decreasing, the US remains China's largest single trading partner. In 2024, exports to the US accounted for 14.7% of China's total export value. Asia is the main export market for China's copper semis, making it susceptible to US pressure. By 2025, US copper scrap exports to China will decline significantly. In 2024, exports of copper semis to the North American market reached 60,000 mt, accounting for 7.4% of total exports. Nearly 20% of China's copper scrap imports in 2024 came from the US. In 2025, the State Grid Corporation of China plans to invest over 650 billion yuan, an increase of more than 7% YoY compared to the actual investment in 2024. The construction sector remains in a negative growth trend and cannot yet provide positive feedback for copper consumption. The negative growth in construction and real estate-related data has narrowed. SMM expects copper consumption in the construction sector to decline by nearly 2% YoY in 2025. "Rush exports" demand persists, with domestic demand growing during the traditional peak season. The operating rate of copper pipe & tube remains high, but concerns about export demand are intensifying. The operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in April is expected to be 85.81%, up 0.58 percentage points MoM but down 0.72 percentage points YoY. Before the tariff policy takes effect, "rush exports" demand remains strong, with optimistic performance in March exports of air conditioners and copper pipe & tube. Domestic demand will strengthen in April during the traditional peak season. Although tariff disruptions increase, export growth is weaker than domestic growth. Overall, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube in April will stabilize at highs. In the medium and long term, the new energy sector remains one of the main drivers of global copper consumption growth. Global Copper Cathode Balance and Price Forecast ► In 2025Q1, before the implementation of Trump's tariffs, market risk sentiment increased, particularly regarding copper tariffs, which temporarily boosted COMEX copper prices, significantly widening the LME-CME price spread and maintaining a high spread. The US siphoned off a large amount of copper. Additionally, since December, US economic data has been relatively strong, inflation expectations have risen, and commodities have generally stabilized and rebounded. Domestically, favorable policies introduced at the beginning of the year boosted macro sentiment, benefiting copper prices. Fundamentally, the expected expansion of ore supply deficits and reduced copper cathode supply in 2025 also supported copper price increases. ► In 2025Q2, with the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs and intensified countermeasures from China, a tariff storm emerged. Coupled with weakening US economic data, the market anticipated economic damage from tariffs, leading to a sharp drop in copper prices, a global economic barometer. Subsequently, China may introduce various favorable policies to stimulate domestic demand. The US-China trade war began with significant measures, and copper prices may gradually rebound, supported by fundamentals (accelerated destocking outside the US, low inventories, and short squeeze expectations under a strong backwardation structure) and domestic favorable policies. However, it will be difficult to return to 80,000 yuan/mt. ► In 2025Q3 and Q4, as the negative sentiment from the trade war subsides, copper prices may stabilize. However, under the economic recession pressure caused by high tariffs, the surplus of copper cathode may increase. In Q3, copper prices may face upward pressure amid the supply-demand weakness caused by smelter production cuts and consumption damage. In Q4, the consumption damage caused by the trade war may weaken, global economic recovery expectations may gradually strengthen, and the effects of earlier relatively loose fiscal policies in the US and China may become evident. With high expectations for shortages in ore and copper cathode, copper prices may shift upward again. Click here to view the special report on the CCIE-2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo.