[SMM Silver Weekly Review] Silver consumption has gradually picked up since June, with photovoltaic orders increasing and transactions mostly concentrated in the range of parity to a premium of RMB 10/kg. Last week's silver price drop to near-term lows attracted bargain buying from some downstream enterprises, strengthening holders' willingness to offer, and spot premiums have shown a slight firming trend this week. Overall, silver consumption in the PV sector has declined year-on-year, while non-PV industrial demand such as semiconductors and AI servers has yet to see notable growth, leaving the domestic silver market facing surplus pressure. A premium of RMB 10/kg is now considered relatively stable, with limited likelihood of returning to the high premium levels seen in Q1 this year. On the price front, silver fell continuously last week due to stronger-than-expected US non-farm data and geopolitical tensions. This week, news of a potential US-Iran memorandum of understanding has boosted sentiment, and precious metals are expected to see a modest rebound. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, further upside for precious metals remains possible amid evolving macroeconomic policies and geopolitical dynamics.

The global stainless steel market navigated a series of sharp sentiment. The opening weeks saw Indonesia's mill closures and price hikes push the cost narrative to its highest point of the year, before a combination of easing geopolitical tensions triggered the first price reduction since December 2025. The month's defining characteristic was similar to April's. What differentiated May was the sharply higher amplitude of both the policy signals and the emotional swings that accompanied them.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: SHFE tin swung wildly throughout the week at 394,000-411,000 yuan/mt; amid a supply-demand stalemate, it is expected to continue consolidating at highs.]

1. Thailand & South Korea Markets: Prices climb steadily, bolstered by upbeat expectations for long-term contract premiums CIF quotations and transaction prices of aluminum ingots in Thailand and South Korea moved higher overall this week. The backwardation of LME spot aluminum against the three-month contract narrowed notably. Market optimism over higher Q3 QMJP long-term contract prices continued to build. Sellers lifted spot quotes amid rising costs, pushing transaction prices up accordingly during the week. End-product manufacturers in Southeast Asia and South Korea have extensively adopted Chinese exported aluminum products as raw material substitutes, curbing import demand for primary aluminum ingots. Most downstream players only conduct sporadic restocking based on immediate needs, with little willingness for large-scale inventory buildup. The market has therefore seen a trend of strong prices amid sluggish trading activity . 2. Japan Market: Tight spot supply drives sharp premium hikes; buyers become more price-tolerant Japan’s MJP spot premiums kept climbing this week, mainly driven by acute domestic spot shortages. The Middle East, Japan’s major source of imported aluminum ingots, has delivered lower shipments year-on-year due to geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions and constrained delivery schedules. No other producing regions can make up the supply gap on a meaningful scale, keeping domestic tradable spot inventories at persistently low levels. Faced with tight supply, Japanese end-users have softened their price stance and grown more receptive to spot cargoes with steep premiums. Meanwhile, bullish expectations for Q3 long-term contract premiums have spilled over to the spot market. The combined factors have pushed Japan’s spot premiums to sharply elevated levels.

This week, macro sentiment was shaped by two key narratives: accelerating US-Iran peace talks and higher-than-expected inflation. Peace talks notably heated up—Trump said a peace deal could be signed in Europe as soon as this weekend, and Iran allowed 10 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture. Brent crude fell to a near two-month low of around $89/bbl as geopolitical risk premiums quickly faded. Mid-week, however, May CPI rose to 4.2% YoY, the first breach above 4% in three years (driven by energy, with core at 2.9%). The market’s expectation for the US Fed shifted from rate cuts to a possible hike within the year, and tightening fears weighed on industrial metals demand; copper prices briefly hit a three-week low. By the week’s end, optimism around US-Iran relations eased growth concerns, and copper prices rebounded, with COMEX recovering to around $6.35/lb. Overall, easing geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation offset each other. Ahead of the June 17 FOMC meeting (the first chaired by new Chair Warsh, who is expected to hold rates steady), the market leans toward a wait-and-see stance. Copper prices pulled back from highs on macro headwinds, with increased volatility. Fundamentals side, China’s spot market notably strengthened. On inventory, SMM social inventory fell to recent lows, and suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Spot premiums quickly flipped from discounts; South China premiums surged around 230 yuan/mt in total this week, with the approaching delivery-related backwardation structure supporting SHFE copper premiums. Demand side, dip-buying activity picked up when copper prices fell and trading recovered, but as prices rebounded, downstream buying interest was suppressed and the market cooled—overall, demand remained need-based. The SHFE/LME price ratio recovered slightly, with buyers showing greater purchase willingness. The overall picture is one of low-inventory support, strengthening spot premiums, and a demand pattern that switches with price moves, lending support to copper’s downside. Looking ahead to next week, macro focus will center on the June 17 FOMC meeting (attention on Warsh’s comments on the inflation overshoot and the dot plot), whether the US-Iran deal materializes and progress on Strait of Hormuz navigation resumption, while the June 30 US copper cathode tariff ruling adds further uncertainty. If peace talks deliver and geopolitical risk continues to recede, risk appetite could recover but crude oil and inflation expectations would likely pull back in tandem; if sticky inflation pushes the Fed hawkish, risk assets would face pressure. As for fundamentals, low inventories and strengthening spot premiums offer downside support, while high copper prices deter chasing. LME copper is expected to trade at $13,300–$13,800/mt, and SHFE copper is expected to trade at 102,800-105,500, moving sideways in a high range with a slightly softer center. Spot premiums are expected to persist; attention will focus on the sustainability of suppliers holding prices firm post-delivery and downstream restocking intensity.

Spot circulation was limited this week, with MHP and high-grade nickel matte payables fluctuating at highs.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2607 contract opened at 24,190 yuan/mt. Early in the session, it briefly dipped to a low of 24,020 yuan/mt, then bears reduced their positions, and the price fluctuated upward, touching a high of 24,305 yuan/mt near the close. It finally closed up at 24,265 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.41%. Trading volume decreased to 60,028 lots, and open interest decreased by 1,210 lots to 79,545 lots.

Tang Eng Iron Works distributed approximately 159,000 tons of stainless steel products in 2025, down 13.1% YoY and falling short of its 216,000-ton budget target. Cold-rolled and hot-rolled output declined 14.9% YoY to around 159,000 tons, despite raw steel production rising 6.3% to 31,285 tons. The company attributed the declines to US tariffs, exchange rate fluctuations, geopolitical tensions, and oversupply from cheap Chinese steel exports. To improve performance, Tang Eng plans to stabilize core business profits, leverage land assets for non-operating income, and introduce sustainability programs tied to its core operations.

2026-06-10 15:25PM UTC While markets have been focused on the recent sharp decline in gold prices, the broader precious metals sector has also experienced significant selling pressure, with platinum-group metals suffering some of the steepest losses, according to a report from Bank of America. Both platinum and palladium recently fell to their lowest levels of the year amid continued pressure from the global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions. Global economic weakness and Middle East tensions weigh on platinum-group metals Commodity analysts at the bank said the rally in platinum-group metals lost momentum since late January, largely due to gold’s price action and persistent economic headwinds linked to the conflict in the Middle East, which continue to weigh on industrial metals demand. Despite the recent weakness, the bank maintained its positive long-term outlook for the sector, noting that it remains constructive on gold heading into the fourth quarter. A renewed gold rally could attract investors back into platinum-group metals and help support prices. Spot platinum fell to around $1,711 per ounce, down more than 2% during the session, while palladium traded near $1,203 per ounce, up roughly 0.5%. Since the sharp selloff on Friday, platinum has lost more than 9% of its value, while palladium has fallen over 6%. Higher price targets despite weak industrial and jewelry demand Despite current pressures, Bank of America still expects platinum to average around $3,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Palladium is expected to average around $2,200 per ounce during the final three months of the year. Platinum-group metals delivered strong gains during 2025 as global trade tensions and threats of tariffs on precious metals created significant disruptions in physical market liquidity. However, analysts noted that most of those concerns eased after tariff threats failed to translate into broad implementation. According to the report, the absence of tariffs resulted in more than 200,000 ounces of platinum leaving NYMEX warehouses, roughly half of the inflows recorded during the second half of 2025. Palladium, meanwhile, saw outflows in late January before flows reversed after the US Department of Commerce imposed final anti-dumping duties of 133% and countervailing duties of 109% on Russian palladium. Structural shifts in demand The bank also highlighted structural changes in demand for platinum-group metals. Platinum is expected to record a modest supply deficit this year, while palladium is forecast to remain in a slight surplus. Analysts pointed to China’s accelerating transition toward electric vehicles as a major source of market volatility, given the reduced demand for internal combustion engine vehicles that rely heavily on platinum-group metals in catalytic converters. Electric vehicles are expected to account for roughly 40% of China’s light-vehicle production this year, surpassing conventional combustion-engine vehicles for the first time. Traditional vehicles are projected to represent 36% of production, while hybrids account for 24%. Production of internal combustion vehicles in China has already fallen to approximately 14 million units in 2025, down from 21 million in 2020. By contrast, the transition to electric vehicles remains slower in Europe and the United States, particularly after Washington scaled back some of its earlier electrification initiatives. Weak jewelry demand in China Demand for platinum jewelry has also slowed, especially in China, where elevated inventories accumulated during the manufacturing boom of mid-2025 continue to pressure the market. Although some of those inventories have already been recycled, retailers still hold large stockpiles while consumer demand remains weak, raising the risk of a significant contraction in Chinese jewelry manufacturing volumes this year. Energy costs threaten South African production Despite uncertainty surrounding global demand, Bank of America believes supply-side risks could become increasingly important. The bank noted that ongoing Middle East tensions, higher energy prices, and inflationary pressures could negatively affect production, particularly in South Africa, one of the world's largest producers of platinum-group metals. South Africa relies heavily on imported oil, has limited domestic production capacity, and faces ongoing refining constraints, leaving its mining sector highly exposed to rising fuel costs. Diesel remains widely used across mining operations, transportation networks, and backup power generation, especially given the country's persistent electricity shortages. Diesel prices have surged since the conflict began, while state utility Eskom raised electricity tariffs by 8.76% beginning in April 2026, significantly increasing mining costs. In this context, Sibanye-Stillwater reported a 13% year-over-year increase in unit operating costs during the first quarter, citing persistent inflationary pressures, including higher labor and energy expenses. In trading on Wednesday, spot palladium rose 1.5% to $1,249 per ounce as of 16:14 GMT. Source： https://www.economies.com/commodities/palladium-news/palladium-attempts-to-recover-losses-as-bank-of-america-maintains-a-bullish-outlook-49044

SMM June 11 News: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,981/mt, hitting an intraday high early in the session before coming under pressure and pulling back. The price fluctuated downward during the Asian session, with the center gradually shifting lower. Entering the European session, bulls struggled to rebound, as selling pressure above continued to emerge. The market maintained a fluctuating downward trend, dipping to an intraday low of $1,960/mt. Toward the close, it stopped falling slightly and consolidated, eventually settling at $1,962.5/mt, registering a small bearish candlestick, down $18.5/mt, a decline of 0.93%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,115 yuan/mt. Early in the session, the price briefly rose to touch an intraday high of 16,140 yuan/mt before the bullish momentum faded. The market fluctuated downward overall, with prices gradually pulling back to an intraday low of 16,060 yuan/mt. Near the end of the session, it rebounded slightly, eventually settling at 16,100 yuan/mt, registering six consecutive bearish candlesticks, down 30 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.19%. Sentiment-wise, renewed geopolitical tensions broadly weighed on the nonferrous metals sector. On the demand side, performance was sluggish, with end-use consumption recovery falling short of peak-season expectations and downstream enterprises adopting a cautious procurement stance. On the inventory front, LME lead and domestic lead ingot inventories continued to pull back, consolidating support at lows for lead prices. Additionally, secondary lead smelters, constrained by costs, held prices firm and held back from selling, further underpinning prices. Currently, secondary lead enterprises in east China are experiencing both production suspensions and resumptions, with bullish and bearish factors intertwined, and short-term lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.