[SMM Analysis] The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Steel Exports Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

On May 20, the 2026 Olefins Industry Conference hosted by SCI was held as scheduled. The three-day conference aimed to build a supply and demand communication platform across the entire industry chain against the backdrop of intense geopolitical conflicts, the coexistence of overcapacity and structural shortages, and the lack of coordination across the full chain. It sought to help the industry reach consensus, connect resources, explore solutions together, and promote high-quality collaborative development between upstream and downstream industries. Numerous leading petrochemical enterprises and key downstream enterprises were invited to attend.

【SMM Analysis: Enterprises Actively Expanding Outside China Combined with Demand Boost Led to Significant MoM Increase in Copper Wire Rod Exports in April】Total exports of copper wire rod (HS codes 74081100 and 74081900) increased MoM in April, showing growth both YoY and MoM. The specific data are as follows: ...

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Scrap and Alloy Imports Both Dropped Sharply, Alloy Exports Hit Single-Month Record High] Imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 73,500 mt, down 15.4% YoY and down 12.9% MoM; cumulative imports from January to April were 313,900 mt, down 14.6% YoY. Exports side, April unwrought aluminum alloy exports reached 46,300 mt, hitting a single-month export record high, up 179.7% YoY and up 68.9% MoM; cumulative exports from January to April were 111,200 mt, up 58.1% YoY. Since March, affected by Middle East geopolitical conflicts and ex-China supply disruptions, overseas aluminum alloy ingot prices continued to rise, with the price spread between domestic and overseas markets becoming increasingly inverted.

[SMM Analysis]Unwrought Aluminum Alloy Exports Surged 180% YoY in April, Imports Clearly Under Pressure

Overall outlook: Through the strategic shift of order focus toward Southeast Asia and Europe, China's prebaked anode exports are expected to effectively mitigate the downside risks from the Middle Eastern market, with the market structure's risk resilience continuing to strengthen. Full-year exports in 2026 are expected to maintain robust growth, and regional diversification is expected to deepen further.

[Will Refined Zinc Maintain Net Imports in April with Exports Increasing in May?] According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in April 2026 were 6,000 mt, down 8,400 mt or 58.27%% MoM, and down 78.62% YoY. Cumulative refined zinc imports from January to April were 49,000 mt, down 61.98% YoY cumulatively. Refined zinc exports in April were 3,900 mt, down 16.22% MoM and up 59.21% YoY.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: International Macro Environment Presented a Mixed Bullish-Bearish Landscape, Tin Prices Expected to Continue Moving Sideways at High Levels This Week]

【SMM Steel】French steel tube manufacturer Vallourec’s first-quarter 2026 financial results show that, due to logistics disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the postponement of some orders, the company expects a short-term decline in sales and profit margins in the second quarter. Although the group’s revenue fell by 7% year-on-year to 975 million USD, EBITDA actually rose by 2% year-on-year to 220 million USD, with the profit margin increasing to 22.6%, thanks to optimised product mix and pricing strategies. The company identified the North American market as its strongest region in 2026, as US customers plan to increase drilling activities and import volumes continue to contract, both volume and prices are expected to rebound in the third quarter.

[SMM Weekly Platinum and Palladium Review] This week (May 11 – May 15), the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on China's GFEX opened at 509 yuan/gram and closed at 499.05 yuan/gram, down 14.95 yuan/gram or 2.91% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 542.25 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 496.05 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 366 yuan/gram and closed at 345 yuan/gram, down 26.45 yuan/gram or 7.12% from last week's settlement price, with a weekly highest price of 376.85 yuan/gram and a weekly lowest price of 340 yuan/gram. In terms of futures trading: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 32,874 lots with a total turnover of 17.139 billion yuan and open interest of 9,970 lots, down 4,309 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,453 lots with a total turnover of 6.651 billion yuan and open interest of 6,565 lots, down 499 lots WoW. Platinum and palladium first rose and then declined during the week. Peru experienced a sudden energy crisis within the week and issued a national emergency decree. Power rationing was expected to cause mine shutdowns, thereby affecting supply. As the world's 12th largest mining country, Peru holds 21.8% of global silver reserves, which triggered a silver rally. Driven by sector spillover effects, platinum and palladium also rose accordingly. The subsequent decline was concentrated on Friday, when platinum and palladium plunged sharply intraday. Trump's visit to China eased tariff expectations and suppressed strategic resource premiums, while a rising US dollar index and elevated medium- to long-term US Treasury yields jointly weighed on precious metal valuations. On the Middle East geopolitical front: Gulf states discussed post-war regional governance. Saudi Arabia proposed a non-aggression pact, and Israel's defense minister stated that military action against Iran might be taken again. On the US Fed front: the US Senate confirmed Warsh as Fed Chairman by a vote of 54 to 45. However, Powell is expected to remain as a Fed governor. This vote marked the most partisan-divided confirmation in history. "The strongest dissenting governor" Miran officially submitted his resignation on Thursday, stating that the current interest rates were too high. On trade and tariffs: during Trump's visit to China, the two sides reached multiple important consensuses, agreeing to manage tariff differences and restart dedicated trade negotiations. The US suspended new tariffs on China and will gradually reduce punitive tariffs. Both sides enhanced strategic mutual trust and expanded cooperation across multiple areas, laying an important foundation for the easing and stable development of bilateral relations. In terms of supply: South Africa's power shortage eased significantly, and PGM mine expansions progressed; Nornickel's Q1 platinum and palladium production declined sharply, mainly due to Western sanctions affecting its payments, logistics, and equipment imports. Nornickel's platinum and palladium production is expected to see significant production cuts in 2026. On the demand side: PGM demand from the fiberglass industry showed positive momentum. In 2026, China's fiberglass industry is expected to shift from platinum-based to palladium-based applications, with multiple enterprises deploying related technologies and considerable substitution potential. Recent precious metals market trading focused on uncertainties arising from recurring Middle East geopolitical conflicts, US Fed monetary policy expectations, economic stagflation, and financial market risks. Continued attention should be paid to changes in Middle East geopolitical dynamics, the implementation of power rationing in Peru, and speeches by US Fed officials, as well as palladium trial results in the fiberglass sector.