SMM February 27: This week, LME lead opened at $1,964.0/mt. At the beginning of the week, affected by the short-term tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, pre-holiday inventory buildup, and limited post-holiday destocking, it fluctuated downward, hitting a weekly low of $1,949.5/mt. Subsequently, sentiment recovered, and it fluctuated upward, touching the weekly high of $1,996.0/mt. After a slight pullback from the high, it held up well. As of February 27, it finally closed at $1,986.5/mt, up $20/mt WoW, a gain of 1.02%. This week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,855 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the week, driven by post-holiday sentiment, it surged to 16,980 yuan/mt. Later, pressured by the dual decline in spot supply and demand, it pulled back to 16,620 yuan/mt. In the latter half of the week, with the gradual resumption of work in the industry chain, it stabilized and rebounded, consolidating in the range of 16,750-16,800 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,840 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt for the week, a gain of 0.84%. 》Order to view SMM metal spot historical prices

[Shanghai Zinc Ingot Inventory Buildup Significant, Awaiting Subsequent Downstream Production Resumptions]: Spot discounts in Shanghai widened this week, with the average price down by 10 yuan/mt compared to pre-holiday levels. As of Friday, spot discounts for common domestic brands against the 2603 contract were 30-20 yuan/mt, while the premium for the high-priced brand Shuangyan against the 2603 contract was 80-90 yuan/mt.

This week, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China remained stable, quoted at 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt; in Foshan, the same specification of stainless steel scrap off-cuts rose slightly, with a price range of 9,500-9,800 yuan/mt. From the raw material production cost perspective, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely using stainless steel scrap is approximately 13,417.11 yuan/mt, while the cost of using entirely high-grade NPI is 14,551.22 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices maintained stable operation. As the first week after the Chinese New Year holiday, the market was in a gradual recovery phase, with some stainless steel scrap yards and downstream enterprise practitioners still on holiday leave, resulting in a slow return-to-work progress. This led to low market trading activity, with overall weak transactions during the week, not yet returning to normal levels, and full resumption of work still requiring some time. On the futures side, stainless steel futures fluctuated higher this week driven by market sentiment and macro factors, coupled with the continued fermentation of relevant policy news from Indonesia, further strengthening expectations of tightening raw material supply, driving a significant increase in high-grade NPI prices and strong market bullish sentiment. However, due to the lag in recovery, transactions in the stainless steel scrap market have not fully recovered, and quotations remained stable, without fluctuating in sync with futures and high-grade NPI prices. From a cost-economy perspective, the advantage of stainless steel scrap relative to high-grade NPI further expanded this week, providing support for subsequent price trends. Additionally, domestic stainless steel mills' production schedules for March increased significantly, combined with rising expectations for the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March, Silver April," downstream demand is expected to gradually release, and stainless steel scrap procurement demand will increase accordingly. Overall, this week, the stainless steel scrap market presented a pattern of "slow recovery, weak transactions, stable prices." Subsequently, with the full resumption of market operations and gradual recovery of demand, coupled with cost advantages and peak season expectations, stainless steel scrap prices are expected to gradually strengthen.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: SHFE Aluminum Fluctuates at Highs, Post-Holiday Consumption Recovery Remains Slow] Spot side, A00 aluminum price rebounded by 140 yuan/mt to 23,520 yuan/mt compared with the previous trading day, while SMM ADC12 price rose slightly by 50 yuan/mt to 23,800 yuan/mt. Boosted by the stronger futures, market sentiment improved slightly. However, secondary aluminum enterprises remained generally cautious about following the upward trend, with most maintaining stable quotations or raising prices by no more than 100 yuan/mt. Post-holiday downstream consumption recovery pace was relatively slow, with downstream users making just-in-time procurement, and some enterprises still focusing on digesting inventories. Overall market transaction atmosphere was sluggish. In the short term, ADC12 price is likely to continue moving sideways in the initial post-holiday period. For the medium term, the trend still requires close monitoring of the supply-demand matching situation as production resumptions are gradually implemented, as well as the impact of primary aluminum price movements on aluminum scrap costs.

[SMM Analysis] New National Standard for Secondary Lead and Inclusion in Delivery on the Agenda, Market to Shift to "Primary + Secondary Dual-Track Pricing" SMM February 27: Starting March 1, 2026, the "Secondary Lead Ingot GB/T 21181-2025" (hereinafter referred to as the "new national standard") will replace the "Secondary Lead and Lead Alloy Ingot GB/T 21181-2017" (hereinafter referred to as the "old national standard") and officially come into effect.

This week, stainless steel spot prices strengthened, while production costs also rose, further expanding steel mills' profit margins. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on the current raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 0.15% this week; if calculated using the raw material inventory cost, it reached 1.74%. On the cost side for nickel-based raw materials, news regarding Indonesian nickel ore continued to develop this week, pushing high-grade NPI prices further up. NPI producers are already in a loss-making position, showing strong willingness to hold prices firm. Coupled with expectations of increased stainless steel production in March boosting demand for high-grade NPI, although mainstream stainless steel mills have not yet seen representative transaction prices, market confidence remains strong. As of Friday this week, the price for high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade rose 33.5 yuan per mtu, closing at 1,085 yuan/mtu. In the stainless steel scrap market, prices remained generally stable this week. Market recovery was slow in the first week after the holiday, as some scrap yards and downstream enterprises had not fully resumed work. The slow return to work led to insufficient trading activity and weak transactions. While futures prices fluctuated higher, boosted by Indonesian policy news, leading to a significant rise in high-grade NPI prices, stainless steel scrap prices did not fluctuate synchronously due to the lag in recovery. The advantage of stainless steel scrap relative to high-grade NPI further expanded, providing support for its price. With increased steel mill production schedules in March and the approach of the peak season "Golden March, Silver April", downstream demand is expected to be released, and procurement demand will increase. As of Friday this week, the price for 304 off-cuts in Shanghai remained stable, with the latest offer around 9,650 yuan/mt. Regarding the cost side for chromium-based raw materials, high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their stable trend this week. In the first week after the Chinese New Year holiday, the market gradually recovered, but overall transactions remained relatively sluggish, with retail prices holding steady. During the week, Tsingshan Group announced its March high-carbon ferrochrome tender price, which was unchanged from the previous month at 8,245 yuan/mt (50% metal content). However, with the approaching peak demand season "Golden March, Silver April", expectations of a significant increase in stainless steel production schedules in March, and recent rises in stainless steel prices, market expectations for increased ferrochrome demand have grown, and a sentiment for price exploration has emerged in the ferrochrome market. As of Friday this week, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia were flat WoW, closing at 8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

[SMM Ferrochrome Daily Review: Chromium Market Remained Stable in the First Week After the Holiday, Trading Activity Was Moderate] February 27, 2026: Today, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged MoM from the previous trading day.

Market Overview According to SMM data, during the first trading week following the Lunar New Year holiday (February 24 – February 27, 2026), the dominant stainless steel contract (SS2604) opened high and maintained a strong trend, driven by significantly rising raw material costs. By the close on February 27, the contract price had climbed to 14,150 CNY/mt ($2,065.69/mt) , an increase of 385 CNY/mt ($56.20/mt) or +2.80% compared to the pre-holiday closing price of 13,765 CNY/mt ($2,009.49/mt) . In the early post-holiday period, the market's upward logic was primarily dominated by rising costs on the supply side. However, as the price center shifted upward rapidly, the substantial accumulation of social inventory during the holiday formed a tangible suppression on the upside potential. Consequently, futures prices maintained a fluctuating struggle within the 14,100–14,200 CNY ($2,058.39–$2,072.99) range. Macroeconomic Analysis From a macro perspective, the market is navigating an interplay between reasonably ample domestic liquidity and uncertainties regarding overseas trade policies. Domestic: On February 25, the central bank conducted a 600 billion CNY ($87.59 billion) one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation. This continued to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, providing macro support for the traditional "Golden March and Silver April" peak consumption season and stabilizing market expectations. Overseas: The U.S. Trade Representative stated they would continue to advance the Section 301 investigation regarding the Phase One trade agreement, with proposals to raise "global import tariff" rates from 10% to 15% or higher. Potential tariff changes have intensified uncertainty in the external macro environment, which may have a negative impact on future export expectations for stainless steel and related end-products. Fundamentals: Inventory & Demand Fundamentally, the post-holiday market faces the reality of a massive inventory buildup while end-user demand is still in a recovery phase. Inventory: Latest SMM data shows that, due to the long Spring Festival holiday, social inventory significantly increased to 1.0161 million tons this week. This is an increase of 121,600 tons compared to the pre-holiday level of 894,500 tons , breaching the one-million-ton mark. Spot Transactions: The market is currently in a gradual restart phase. Downstream processing factories have not yet fully resumed work, and current spot circulation is mostly concentrated on resource allocation between traders. The end-market's actual ability to digest current high-priced resources remains to be verified after enterprises fully resume work next week. Sentiment: In the short term, high inventory levels pose significant pressure on prices. However, supported by expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, holders' sentiment remains temporarily stable, with no large-scale sell-offs observed. Cost Analysis The significant strengthening of the cost side was the core driver for the high market opening this week. Driven by news of tighter Indonesian nickel ore quotas and fluctuating rises in nickel prices post-holiday, there is a strong willingness to support prices on the raw material side. High-grade Nickel Pig Iron (NPI): As of February 27, quotes were raised significantly, rising by 33.5 CNY ($4.89) in a single week to 1,085 CNY/nickel point ($158.39/nickel point) . High Carbon Ferrochrome: Prices remained temporarily stable at 8,550 CNY/50 basis tons ($1,248.18/50 basis tons) . The expectation of tight ore supply materialized quickly after the holiday, substantially raising the immediate production costs for steel mills. The upward shift in the cost center effectively limited the room for market correction and forced a passive, steady rise in the center of spot transaction prices. Outlook & Strategy Overall, the stainless steel market in the first week after the holiday presented a tug-of-war pattern: "Strong Expectations & High Costs" vs. "Weak Reality & High Inventory." While the sharp rise in NPI prices established a tone for a strong fluctuating market, the social inventory exceeding one million tons—coupled with end-user demand that has yet to kick in—constrained further upside potential. Looking ahead to next week, the market trading logic will gradually shift from "sentiment-driven" to "fundamental verification." Short-term: Futures prices are expected to maintain a strong fluctuation at high levels. Medium-to-long-term: The trend will depend on the actual realization of demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season after downstream sectors fully resume work. Industrial clients are advised to closely monitor the inventory inflection point (destocking) and actual spot transaction conditions next week. Carefully assess the risks of chasing highs and reasonably utilize hedging tools to manage exposure.

[Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to next week, spot copper supply continues to increase, with Peruvian and Japanese cargoes visible intraday. From a market structure perspective, the contango spread between nearby futures contracts has widened slightly, and suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses persists, further diverting spot liquidity. Although suppliers showed strong intentions to hold prices firm intraday, with some brand quotations remaining stable, expectations of subsequent warrant outflows remain, which will exert further pressure on spot premiums/discounts. On the demand side, downstream sectors have not fully resumed production, and procurement sentiment, while rebounding, remains cautious. Under the supply-demand mismatch, social inventory continues its buildup trend. Overall, with supply pressure dominating, spot discounts are expected to remain under pressure next week.

Stainless Steel Daily Review: SS Futures Largely Stable, Spot Market Cautiously Watchful SMM, February 27 – SS futures traded steadily. The upward momentum in SS futures driven by news has largely subsided, with prices holding largely stable during the session. By the pre-noon close, the most-traded contract was quoted at 14,095 yuan/mt. In the spot market, SS futures remained temporarily steady. Although market participants maintained a bullish sentiment, downstream buyers were still partially on holiday, leading to weak purchasing interest. Coupled with consecutive price increases after the holiday, cautious sentiment strengthened, and prices held largely stable during the day. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and edged higher. At 10:30 a.m., the most-traded SS2604 contract was quoted at 14,150 yuan/mt, down 165 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 320-520 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi held largely stable; cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan held largely stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi rose 125 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi increased 200 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held largely stable. This week marked the first week after the Chinese New Year holiday, with the stainless steel market gradually recovering. SS futures strengthened and edged higher, driven by rising expectations for the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March, Silver April" and ongoing developments related to Indonesian nickel ore. Market participants exhibited strong bullish sentiment. However, the recovery pace in the spot market remained slow, as some traders and downstream end-users had not yet resumed operations. Market trading activity had not fully recovered, with only limited rigid demand orders observed during the week...