SMM News on May 9: Metals market: Domestic base metals mostly fell overnight. SHFE copper rose 0.53%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.16%, SHFE lead fell 0.15%, SHFE zinc fell 1.19%, SHFE tin fell 1.13%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.67%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.37%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract fell 0.24%. Ferrous metals mostly fell overnight, with iron ore flat at 816.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel down 1.05%, rebar slightly up, and HRC up 0.14%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.39% and coke fell 0.43%. For the overseas metals market overnight, LME base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 1.59%. LME aluminum rose 0.34%, LME lead was flat at $1,977.5/mt, LME zinc fell 0.17%, LME tin fell 1.26%, and LME nickel fell 0.89%. Precious metals overnight : COMEX gold rose 0.27%, with COMEX gold up on the week, gaining 1.71%; COMEX silver rose 0.82%, with COMEX silver up 5.76% for the week. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.21%, but rose 3.24% on the week; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.09%, with SHFE silver up 11.4% on the week. As of 8:39 on May 9, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Four departments: Explore direct power supply to computing facilities from energy sources such as nuclear power and hydrogen, and continuously increase the share of green electricity in computing facilities] The "Plan" proposes to enhance the diversified power supply capacity for computing facilities. Based on actual conditions such as the scale of computing facilities connected to the system, power grid voltage levels, new energy penetration rate of the power grid, power quality requirements, and computing facility business types, sound standards for the planning and construction of energy supply for computing facilities will be established. The plan explores direct power supply to computing facilities from energy sources such as nuclear power and hydrogen. It encourages computing facilities to deploy grid-forming ESS to enhance power supply stability and active support capabilities for the power system. [Three departments issue "Implementation Opinions on the Standardized Application and Innovative Development of Intelligent Agents"] The Cyberspace Administration of China, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Standardized Application and Innovative Development of Intelligent Agents." The "Implementation Opinions" clarifies that the development of intelligent agents must adhere to the basic principles of being safe and controllable, standardized and orderly, innovation-driven, and application-led, and proposes measures in four areas: First, consolidate the foundation for development, improve the technological base, and establish standard protocols. Second, hold the security bottom line, clarify product guidelines, prevent security risks, improve the governance system, and strengthen industry self-discipline. Third, strengthening application-driven developmentThird, strengthening application-driven development, proposing 19 typical application scenarios around scientific research, industrial development, consumption stimulation, people's well-being, and social governance. Fourth, building an innovation ecosystem, promoting industrial cooperation, and strengthening application promotion. [China's Warehousing Index Remained in Expansion Territory in April, with the Warehousing Industry Sustaining a Stable and Positive Trend] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Warehousing Index for April today (the 9th). The index continued to stay in expansion territory, with the warehousing industry sustaining a stable and positive trend. The China Warehousing Index stood at 51% in April, remaining in expansion territory for two consecutive months. In terms of sub-indices, the new orders index, facility utilization rate index, and end-of-period inventory index remained in expansion territory, while the average inventory turnover index maintained a relatively high level, indicating steady growth in warehousing demand, sound cargo turnover efficiency, and smooth supply chain connectivity. By product category, the peak production and construction season drove a rebound in warehousing demand for bulk commodities such as chemicals, coal, and machinery equipment, while Labour Day holiday stockpiling boosted notable growth in warehousing demand for consumer goods such as food, home appliances, and agricultural by-products. In terms of market expectations, the business activity expectations index stood at 55.1% in April, remaining at a relatively high level, reflecting enterprises' continued optimism. Overall, the warehousing industry operated steadily in April, with market vitality continuing to be released, achieving a good start to Q2. (CCTV) [Shanghai Shipping Exchange: Geopolitical Situation Trending Toward Stability, Freight Rates Rising on Most Routes] The Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) stated in its weekly report that the military ceasefire in the Middle East continued to hold, with the geopolitical situation remaining relatively stable, though the future outlook still faced significant uncertainty. This week, China's export container shipping market remained stable, with freight rates on most routes edging up, driving the composite index higher. On May 8, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index stood at 1954.21 points, up 2.2% from the previous period. US Dollar: The US dollar index fell 0.43% overnight, closing at 97.86. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index declined for two consecutive weeks, down 0.36% for the week. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000 in April, marking the first consecutive growth in nearly a year and the largest two-month gain since 2024, far exceeding the Bloomberg survey median economist forecast of 65,000. March data was also revised up to 185,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, in line with expectations. (Wallstreetcn) US Fed "mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: An increasing number of seller-side institutions and Fed watchers are removing or delaying interest rate cut expectations from their outlooks, including several forecasters who made adjustments following the release of the April non-farm payrolls data. Currently, half of market participants believe there will be no interest rate cut this year (given the inertia of such forecasts, this camp is likely to continue growing). Additionally, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that all rate options are currently on the table, not just rate cuts. At the end of April, the US Fed kept rates unchanged, with three officials opposing language in the statement implying the next move could be a rate cut, arguing that the possibility of a rate hike should be preserved. Goolsbee's remarks reflect a shift among US Fed policymakers—no longer considering near-term rate cuts, primarily because the energy price shock triggered by the Iran war has pushed up inflation. He reiterated that both rate cuts and rate hikes are on the table, expressed anxiety about inflation, and noted that price pressures exist beyond the energy shock. (Jin10 Data) As consumers worry about the impact of inflation on personal finances and buying conditions, US consumer confidence fell to a new all-time low in recent weeks. University of Michigan data showed the preliminary May consumer sentiment index fell from 49.8 in April to 48.2. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.5% over the next year, a slight pullback MoM; long-term inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years stood at 3.4%. As Americans' anxiety over overall living costs intensified, compounded by a sharp rise in gasoline prices, consumer confidence remained depressed. American Automobile Association (AAA) data showed the average US gasoline price this week surpassed $4.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2022, having risen more than 50% since the outbreak of the Iran war. Survey director Joanne Hsu stated: "About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices, and about 30% mentioned tariff issues. Overall, consumers still feel the impact of cost pressure, with the primary driver being surging prices at the pump." The preliminary May current conditions index fell to 47.8, a record low; the expectations index rebounded for the first time since January. Consumers' assessment of their current financial situation dropped to the lowest level since 2009, and the buying conditions indicator also fell to a five-month low. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released next week include China April CPI YoY, China April PPI YoY, US April existing home sales annualized, Germany April CPI MoM final, Germany May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US April NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US ADP employment weekly change for the week ending April 25, US April unadjusted CPI YoY, US April seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US April seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US April unadjusted core CPI YoY, Japan March trade balance, France Q1 ILO unemployment rate, France April CPI MoM final, Eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised, Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, Eurozone March industrial output MoM, US April PPI YoY, US April PPI MoM, UK Q1 GDP YoY preliminary, UK March three-month GDP MoM, UK March manufacturing output MoM, Canada March wholesale sales MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, US April retail sales MoM, US April import price index MoM, US May NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US April industrial output MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY (TBD). In addition, events to watch next week include: US Treasury Secretary Bessent visiting Japan to meet with the Japanese Prime Minister, the BOJ Governor, and the Finance Minister; the BOJ releasing the Summary of Opinions from its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participating in a Q&A session hosted by a local chamber of commerce; 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins speaking at the Boston Economic Club; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in a discussion hosted by a local chamber of commerce; the Bank of Canada releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan participating in a dialogue on the energy sector; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivering opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; US Fed Governor Barr delivering a speech; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a discussion; and the National Energy Administration releasing total electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month. Crude oil: Overnight, the two benchmark oil futures moved sideways, with WTI down 0.14% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 1.2% for the week, while Brent futures fell 7.32% for the week. Middle East conflicts flared up again, and market concerns over the fragility of ceasefire agreements persisted. According to CMG reporters on May 8, ship-tracking data showed that as of the morning of May 8 local time, no large vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. This marked the second consecutive day since May 7 with no large commercial ships passing through the strait. (CCTV) US energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that US energy enterprises increased oil and natural gas rig counts for the third consecutive week, marking the first three-week streak of increases since early February. Data showed that for the week ending May 8, the total US oil and natural gas rig count—a leading indicator of future production—increased by 1 to 548, the highest since early April. (Webstock Inc.) According to foreign media reports, sources said that since shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, enterprises such as Saudi Aramco's trading arm (Aramco Trading) and UAE national oil company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) had continued to transport crude oil cargoes through the strait. Although current shipment volumes represented only a fraction of what flowed before Iran closed this oil route nearly 10 weeks ago, the actions of both companies served as a reminder to the market that some supply could still reach global markets. According to sources, Adnoc was among the first companies to attempt shipping crude oil, fuel, and natural gas cargoes out through the strait. The company supplied clients with Upper Zakum crude, a grade typically loaded at Zirku Island, but in this case delivered in Fujairah waters outside the Persian Gulf. According to Vortexa data, at the end of April, a very large crude carrier (VLCC) loaded with Abu Dhabi crude turned off its transponder and sailed out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data showed that as of Thursday, another VLCC, Fujairah Energy, remained anchored in waters near Abu Dhabi, carrying a half-load of crude obtained via ship-to-ship transfer from Zirku Island. A charter agreement showed that the vessel had been temporarily chartered by Adnoc and plans to load crude between May 15 and 17 for delivery to Asia. (Jin10 Data) Citi stated that the current base case scenario expects Brent crude to average $110 in Q2 2026, then decline to $95 in Q3 and $80 in Q4. Fitch expects Brent crude to remain at $100–110 per barrel during the Strait of Hormuz blockade from May to July, before pulling back to $70 per barrel by September. Additionally, JPMorgan analysts said US gasoline prices "could very well" rise to $5 per gallon, as refineries are prioritizing jet fuel production at the expense of other products. The analyst team noted in a Friday report that in Asia, the region currently hardest hit by the energy crisis, the price shock triggered by the Iran war is transmitting significantly faster through refined product markets such as jet fuel and diesel than through the crude oil market. If refinery operations continue to be constrained by limited crude supply, fuel prices could become "the primary transmission channel for demand destruction." "In this scenario, crude prices could still stabilize around $100 per barrel even as refined product crack spreads widen significantly. At that point, the next phase of the shock would look less like a traditional crude oil price spike and more like a refining and end-user fuel supply crisis." The product most visibly impacted currently is jet fuel, which is prompting refineries to maximize jet fuel output wherever possible, typically at the cost of reduced diesel production. The knock-on effects are also spreading to gasoline production. Analysts said: "This perhaps explains why US gasoline prices have already risen to $4.55 per gallon, and why the risk of gasoline reaching $5 can no longer be ignored." (Jin10 Data) Recommended Reading:

[SMM Analysis: NPI Prices Rose Sharply, Market Shifted to High-Level Standoff] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose 30.5 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,150.5 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price rose 3.58 $/nickel unit WoW to 146.78 $/nickel unit. This week, policies and futures drove prices steadily higher, with the NPI price center moving further up.

SMM May 8: In the first week after the holiday, prices of most cobalt products remained stable. Spot refined cobalt prices also held steady after rising 3,500 yuan/mt on the first trading day post-holiday. Meanwhile, spot cobalt sulphate prices stopped falling and stabilized after the holiday. The market currently holds an optimistic view on downstream production schedules for May. Under these circumstances, how will cobalt series products perform? SMM compiled the relevant price changes of cobalt series products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot prices, spot refined cobalt prices rose post-holiday and then maintained a fluctuating trend this week. As of May 8, spot refined cobalt prices rose to 422,000-429,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 425,500 yuan/mt, up 3,500 yuan/mt from 422,000 yuan/mt on the last trading day before the holiday, a gain of 0.83%. Supply and demand side, on the supply side, mainstream refined cobalt smelters slightly raised ex-factory prices, while other smelters maintained parity; traders lowered the spot-futures price spread of mainstream brands to a premium of 7,000-8,000 yuan/mt to accelerate capital turnover. On the demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued to maintain just-in-need restocking strategies, strictly controlling raw material inventory risks. From the price ratio perspective, the metal price spread between refined cobalt prices and low-priced cobalt salts has narrowed significantly, and enterprises' willingness to produce refined cobalt through re-dissolution has pulled back accordingly. In the short term, refined cobalt prices are expected to move sideways, and future price rises still need effective support from cobalt salt prices. Cobalt salt ( and ): : According to SMM spot prices, spot cobalt sulphate prices stopped falling and stabilized this week. As of May 8, spot cobalt sulphate prices remained at 93,000-95,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 94,500 yuan/mt, flat compared with the April 30 quote. Supply and demand side, mainstream cobalt sulphate brand price centers remained in the range of 93,000-96,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the rebound in refined cobalt prices, some smelters and traders that previously offered discounts for shipments have slightly raised their quotes, and low-priced resources below 90,000 yuan/mt have decreased notably. On the demand side, downstream enterprises were still consuming previous inventory overall, with weak purchase willingness to enter the market, and only a few with just-in-need requirements restocked in small quantities at low prices. However, some Co3O4 enterprises have recently increased inquiry activities, and procurement sentiment showed signs of recovery. Production schedule side, ternary and LCO enterprises both saw restorative increases in May production schedules MoM. It is expected that as downstream gradually initiates restocking, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to see a phased recovery rebound. : According to SMM spot quotes, post-holiday cobalt chloride spot prices edged up 250 yuan/mt on May 8, quoted at 114,200-117,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 115,600 yuan/mt. In terms of market performance, post-holiday cobalt chloride spot market generally reported scarce inquiries. On the supply side, shipments from some top-tier players declined significantly recently, with liquidity under pressure and quotes slightly loosened; while small and medium-sized producers had already lowered quotes earlier due to capital recovery and shipment pressure, and have gradually stabilized recently, with very limited downside room for further price cuts. On the demand side, downstream Co3O4 enterprises, affected by weak demand, faced significant shipment pressure themselves, with weak purchase willingness for cobalt chloride; in contrast, cathode material and battery cell segments showed restocking willingness recently as inventory continued to be depleted. Overall, the market still lacks clear momentum for a price breakthrough. Although occasional low-price transactions occurred, constrained by enterprise performance pressure, capital conditions, and shipment volumes, they were unlikely to have a significant impact on the overall market. SMM believes that current cobalt chloride prices have limited downside room, with raw material costs providing strong bottom support. Cobalt chloride market is expected to remain stable in the near term, with substantive changes likely to wait until mid-to-late May. : According to SMM spot quotes, post-holiday Co3O4 spot prices remained stable. As of May 8, Co3O4 spot prices were maintained at 360,000-367,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 363,500 yuan/mt, stable compared to pre-holiday levels. Spot market, according to SMM, the post-holiday Co3O4 market continued the sluggish trend from before the holiday. Top-tier players slightly lowered their quotes, but as cobalt intermediate products were in a phase of tight supply and cobalt chloride prices remained firm, effective cost support was provided for Co3O4 prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued to purchase as needed, mainly restocking in small quantities based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity maintained at a neutral level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the core variable determining cathode material procurement intensity. Considering that market expectations for May are generally optimistic, attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can break the prolonged stable pattern and bring phased changes. Raw material cobalt intermediate products: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices remained stable post-holiday. As of May 8, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices were maintained at $25.8-26.2/lb, with an average price of $26/lb. Supply and demand side, on the supply side, according to SMM, most suppliers held relatively optimistic expectations for the market outlook, with offers continuing to stay above $26/lb. On the demand side, there was no significant change. Affected by insufficient momentum for cobalt salt prices to follow the upward trend, the market maintained only small volumes of just-in-time procurement, with intended transaction prices fluctuating around $25.8/lb. Shipping side, DRC cobalt intermediate product cargoes remained stranded at South African ports and in overland transportation. In April, only a few miners completed small-batch vessel bookings, with arrivals expected from May to June. Dragged by tight shipping capacity on African routes, the remaining large-volume cargoes may be delayed until July for concentrated arrivals. Looking ahead, as downstream orders gradually materialize and restocking demand is progressively released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery. News side, recently, multiple enterprises along the cobalt industry chain released their Q1 earnings reports. Tengyuan Cobalt reported that the company achieved revenue of 2.559 billion yuan in Q1 2026, up 75.13% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 531 million yuan, up 330.11% YoY. In addition, the company also released its 2025 annual report, showing total revenue of 8.34 billion yuan in 2025, up 27.47% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 11.11 yuan, up 62.11% YoY. Meanwhile, the gross margin of its main products reached 27.73%, up 5.74% YoY, and cobalt production and sales hit new historical highs. Regarding the reasons for the company's strong performance growth during the reporting period, Tengyuan Cobalt stated that first, the company operated steadily and established a diversified raw material procurement system with strong supply security capabilities. In particular, the stable supply of secondary resources or recycled raw materials effectively hedged against the impact of fluctuations in primary ore procurement, effectively enhancing supply chain resilience and providing support for performance growth. Second, as capacity from fundraising investment projects was gradually released, and benefiting from YoY increases in market prices of metals such as cobalt and copper, the company's product production, sales, and profitability improved significantly, with economies of scale becoming more evident. Third, the company continued to promote lean management reform, comprehensively implemented cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, enhanced operational efficiency through strict cost control, and continuously optimized its client structure, strengthening overall profitability. As of the end of Q1 2026, Tengyuan Cobalt had capacity of 31,500 mt in metal content of cobalt products (including 8,000 mt of refined cobalt), 10,000 mt in metal content of nickel products, 10,000 mt in metal content of manganese products, 60,000 mt of copper products, 20,000 mt of ternary cathode precursor, 10,000 mt of Co3O4, and 5,000 mt of lithium carbonate. In addition, Tengyuan Cobalt stated that the pricing of its cobalt products such as cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride is based onprices, adjusted according to discount coefficients and price fluctuations. Tengyuan Cobalt also stated that the company's core products have been widely used in traditional end-use sectors such as consumer electronics, NEVs, and aerospace, and are continuously extending into emerging technology fields empowered by AI. In particular, the company's Co3O4 and related product series are primarily used in high-end LCO systems, fully compatible with product terminals requiring high energy density and high stability battery applications. Targeting emerging technology tracks, the company is leveraging its own advantages to actively enter rapidly growing fields such as solid-state batteries, humanoid robots, eVTOL, low-altitude economy, AI computing infrastructure, and high-end energy storage. As emerging markets gradually scale up in the future, the company will rely on its advantages in raw material supply, high-purity manufacturing technology, and client resources to continuously optimize its product mix, consolidating its strengths in traditional sectors while fully benefiting from the growing material demand driven by the development of emerging technology industries. It is also worth noting that as of March 31, 2026, the company's fundraised investment project — the "Annual 30,000 mt Copper and 2,000 mt Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Smelter Project" — had passed the reviews of China's Ministry of Commerce and the Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission, and obtained the enterprise overseas investment certificate. The joint venture company (Xincheng New Energy Investment Co., Ltd.) and the project company (Hechuang New Energy Mining Simplified Joint-Stock Company) had been established. Currently, the overall project progress is in line with the planned schedule, with project design, land leveling, and main building civil works completed, and installation of main equipment currently underway. Hanrui Cobalt previously released its Q1 report, stating that the company achieved operating revenue of 1.865 billion yuan in Q1 2026, up 24.19% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm at 64.7465 million yuan, up 51.07% YoY. The performance change was mainly attributable to increased sales volume and prices of copper products as well as sales of nickel products.

SMM May 8 update: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,770 yuan/mt intraday. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,750-16,785 yuan/mt. Subsequently, dragged down by lead ingot inventory buildup, prices fluctuated downward, hitting an intraday low of 16,610 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly toward the close, ultimately settling at 16,710 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt or 0.65%, recording a small bearish candlestick. Sentiment side, geopolitical tensions outside China resurfaced, tightening the macro atmosphere and driving non-ferrous metals overall under pressure to pull back. Fundamentals side, production cuts and shutdowns at secondary lead smelters expanded in scope, but the lead-acid battery industry entered the traditional consumption off-season, with supply and demand weakening simultaneously. Lead ingot inventory continued to accumulate after the holiday, making it difficult to provide effective support for lead prices. In the short term, lead prices are expected to continue their pullback, giving back part of the earlier gains. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

After the holiday, ferrous metals opened higher, but subsequent trends diverged—steel products and iron ore fluctuated at highs, while coke surged before pulling back. The strong rally during the week was mainly driven by disturbances outside China. During the holiday, the US-Iran standoff escalated with widening negotiation gaps, pushing raw materials to lead the gains in ferrous metals. Combined with capital inflows after the holiday, this provided a clear upward drive for prices. In the latter half of the week, market rumors suggested that Iran and the US had reached a consensus on easing the US naval blockade in exchange for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and bears increased their positions in coke. Data on the five major steel products were released, showing weakness in both supply and demand, with inventory not accumulating after the holiday. On the spot market side, traders had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and purchases were made in both futures and spot cargo at low price levels...

Silicon Metal: The silicon market trended stronger after the Labour Day holiday. This round of futures strength was primarily driven by macro and capital momentum. Silicon enterprises hedged in batches on rallies, cargo rights gradually shifted to futures-spot traders, and rigid demand provided support, with spot prices passively following the upward trend. From an industrial perspective, the expected increase in silicon metal supply in June carries relatively high certainty, which suppresses the sustainability of subsequent price rises. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market has intensified. Going forward, key areas to watch include shifts in capital logic, changes in macro sentiment, and the pace of production resumption on the industrial side.

China's stainless steel futures gave back ground sharply in the first trading week after the May Day holiday, as a sudden easing of Middle East tensions deflated the risk premium that had carried prices to recent highs. With the cost-side narrative unwinding and physical demand showing little follow-through, the market is searching for a new floor

[Domestic Iron Ore Brief] Domestic iron ore concentrates market prices were basically stable this week. In terms of regional performance, prices in Tangshan, Qian'an, and Qianxi in Hebei edged up by 5-10 yuan/mt; prices in Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping in western Liaoning were basically stable; prices in east China declined by 1-5 yuan/mt.

SMM, May 8: LME lead opened at $1,948/mt this week. Prices dipped slightly at the beginning of the session, touching a low of $1,946.5/mt before rebounding in a volatile manner, briefly reaching a high of $1,990/mt. Prices then pulled back slightly on profit-taking and consolidated briefly. Toward the end of the session, prices came under pressure again and weakened, ultimately closing at $1,966/mt, up $18/mt from the weekly open, a gain of 0.92%. Due to the Labor Day holiday closure, the most-traded SHFE lead pb2606 contract resumed trading on May 6, opening at 16,690 yuan/mt. After the open, driven by bulls, prices surged rapidly, touching a high of 17,005 yuan/mt. However, under the dual pressure of lead ingot inventory buildup and weak downstream consumption, the price center pulled back in a volatile fashion, dipping to a low of 16,610 yuan/mt near the close. Losses narrowed slightly toward the end of the session, with prices ultimately closing at 16,710 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the pre-holiday level, a gain of 0.48%.

In the first week after the Labour Day holiday, nickel prices saw an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts, displaying an overall pattern of rising first then falling. At the start of the week, LME fluctuated at highs during the holiday period and tight supply sentiment continued. After the holiday ended, SHFE nickel opened higher with a gap. Mid-week, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract surged over 3.5% in a single day, hitting an intraday high of 155,360 yuan/mt — a new yearly high — while LME nickel briefly approached $20,000/mt. However, in the latter part of the week, signals of resumed US-Iran negotiations emerged, marginally easing market concerns over tight sulfur supply. Combined with concentrated profit-taking at highs, nickel prices pulled back sharply, falling a cumulative 3.4%+ over two days. Spot market side, the weekly average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 149,383 yuan/mt, down 4,050 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums further declined to 1,100 yuan/mt. Domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel remained at significant discounts. After the sharp decline in futures, spot trading activity improved compared to pre-holiday levels. On the macro front, the signal of resumed US-Iran negotiations — with both sides potentially negotiating on conflict resolution and opening the Strait of Hormuz — eased sulfur supply concerns accordingly, and nickel prices pulled back notably. The hawkish stance of Fed Chairman nominee Warsh at his confirmation hearing last week continued to weigh on market expectations this week. The US Fed's April meeting kept interest rates unchanged, with the current benchmark rate range maintained at 3.5%–3.75%. Persistently high oil prices continued to push the inflation center upward, with core PCE data still above the Fed's 2% target. Market-implied probability of a June interest rate cut has fallen to extremely low levels. Expectations for one rate cut for the full year remain the mainstream view but with significant uncertainty. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was approximately 101,000 mt, a buildup of about 600 mt WoW. Looking ahead, geopolitical conflict dynamics persist. If US-Iran negotiations progress smoothly, market expectations of sulfur supply disruptions will ease, and the nickel price center may shift lower. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 140,000–150,000 yuan/mt, with key support below from the rigid cost floor established by Indonesia's new HPM policy.