SMM, June 23 – In early trading, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated downward, with the overall trading center at the open lower than the same period of the previous trading day. Affected by the declining aluminum prices, buying sentiment in the market improved today. However, due to the high selling sentiment among some sellers bearish on aluminum prices, combined with the outflow of some warrants, the overall available supply in the market was relatively sufficient. Mainstream quotations were at a discount of 40 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 07 contract, with transactions mainly at a discount of 50 yuan/mt against the same contract. Today, in east China, the selling sentiment index was 3.1, up 0.15 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.06, down 0.14 MoM. The aluminum futures consolidated and pulled back. After the holiday, downstream processing enterprises in the central China market had low buying sentiment, still mainly digesting inventories, and overall market transactions were relatively sluggish. Moreover, premiums were in line with expectations. In recent days, a large amount of warrants flowed out, releasing a great deal of available supply in the market, and suppliers had a weak willingness to hold prices firm. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the central China market was around a discount of 80-110 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 07 contract. Today, in the central China market, the selling sentiment index was 2.95, up 0.01 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.22, unchanged MoM. Inventory side, today, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell by 0.3 MoM, with destocking mainly in Guangdong and Wuxi.

Today, DCE iron ore futures opened weak in the morning session and saw a modest recovery in the afternoon, with the most-traded I2609 contract closing at 738.5 yuan/mt, down 0.54% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices held steady from the previous day.

The most-traded HRC futures contract closed at 3,327 today, down 0.27% for the day. In the spot market, HRC prices fell by 10-20 yuan/mt, cold-rolled coil prices remained stable, and overall trading was moderate. Supply side, according to SMM statistics, the impact from hot rolling maintenance this week was 78,100 mt, flat WoW; next week's impact from hot rolling maintenance is expected to be 23,100 mt, down 55,000 mt WoW from this week. HRC supply remained unchanged this week, and subsequent supply is expected to increase. Demand side, sheet & plate demand today was mainly characterized by just-in-time procurement, without significant demand release. Going forward, demand continued to weaken, fundamental pressures gradually emerged, and sheet & plate prices were suppressed. However, the market still has expectations for the ninth round of coke price increases. In the short term, sheet & plate prices are expected to be in the doldrums supported by costs.

SMM June 23: The most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 16,420 yuan/mt during the day. In the morning session, prices fluctuated slightly around the intraday moving average, then weakened and fluctuated downward, dipping to an intraday low of 16,315 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, futures gradually recovered and rebounded, with prices steadily approaching the average line. Near the end of the session, the contract moved sideways in a narrow range of 16,370–16,400 yuan/mt and finally settled at 16,385 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 65 yuan/mt or 0.4%. The SHFE lead 2607 contract recorded a trading volume of 29,824 lots and open interest of 43,541 lots. The SHFE lead 2608 contract recorded a trading volume of 31,280 lots and open interest of 69,530 lots. The most-traded SHFE lead contract officially rolled over to the 2608 contract. Currently, primary and secondary lead smelters in China are entering a concentrated maintenance period, creating strong market expectations of a contraction in lead raw material supply, which provides upward support to the futures market. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, downstream battery factories have gradually resumed production, generating short-term restocking demand driven by rigid needs. However, at the mid-year period, large downstream battery enterprises are entering the semi-annual financial closing and inventory check phase, which will temporarily slow down their concentrated procurement of lead ingots. The bullish impetus from rigid demand is relatively limited. The weak supply-demand situation makes it difficult to persistently boost lead prices upward. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Data source statement: All data, except publicly available information, are processed by SMM based on public information, market communications, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Base Metals Slump Drags SS Lower; Spot Stainless Steel Holds Price Floor with Limited Losses as Downstream Stays Sidelined According to SMM on June 23, SS futures fluctuated lower and gradually pulled back. Base metals futures fell across the board today, dragging SS futures lower in tandem. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,885 yuan/mt. In the spot market, while SS futures pulled back sharply, cautious wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises intensified, and spot transactions remained sluggish with no significant improvement. However, spot traders continued to hold their price quotes firm, limiting the overall extent of price declines. Regarding the most-traded SS futures contract, at 10:15 AM, SS2608 was reported at 14,930 yuan/mt, down 155 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B products in the Wuxi area ranged 240-640 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled, un-edged 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt while the average price in Foshan remained flat; prices for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in the Wuxi area were flat; and for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, quoted prices in Wuxi fell by 25 yuan/mt. Prices for cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot experienced wild swings, as offshore macro expectations repeatedly disrupted futures and the market saw an intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The overall landscape was one where macro forces dominated futures, transactions fluctuated with sentiment, tightening supply supported spot prices, inventories remained steady, and profits saw minor repairs. Early in the week, macro tailwinds lifted the market, and the futures rebound spurred a recovery in spot transactions; by mid-week...

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, some suppliers will have month-end payment collection needs and will offload cargoes in the market, dragging down the center of spot premiums. Actual transaction discounts for standard-quality copper have already expanded to 70-60 yuan/mt, and some brand offers have reached a discount of 80-70 yuan/mt. On the demand side, SMM understands that after the recent continuous decline in copper prices, some processing enterprises have reported moderate orders, and their dip-buying willingness has strengthened. However, market performance shows that suppliers had to lower their offers several times before transactions were concluded, indicating that downstream players are still mainly pushing for lower prices with limited willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers' offloading pressure and downstream dip-buying, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, with the discount likely to widen slightly.

SMM June 23 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals all fell, SHFE copper fell 0.71%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.25%. SHFE lead fell 0.12%. SHFE zinc fell 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 3.26%. SHFE nickel fell 0.72%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.17%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 2.43%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 0.79%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.41%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 0.56%. Ferrous metals all fell, iron ore fell 0.94%, rebar fell 0.51%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.57%, stainless steel fell 1.42%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.93%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 4.53%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals all moved lower. LME copper fell 0.89%, LME aluminum fell 1.56%, LME lead fell 0.84%. LME zinc, LME tin, and LME nickel all fell nearly 1%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 1.07%, COMEX silver fell 3.78%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.36%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 4.91%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.85%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 2.36%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight futures contract fell 2.23% to 3,689 points. As of 11:43 on June 23, some futures market midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at 24,585-24,770 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream transactions were at 24,685-24,860 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transactions were at 24,515-24,700 yuan/mt. Morning session market quotes against SMM average prices were at a premium of 10-20 yuan/mt, with no quotes against the contract for now... Macro front China: [Notice from the Ministry of Commerce and Nine Other Departments on Cultivating and Expanding Consumption in the Automotive Aftermarket] The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice on implementing measures to cultivate and expand consumption in the automotive aftermarket, stating that the development of automotive modification should be standardized and orderly. Establish and improve automotive modification management systems. Formulate policy documents to promote the development of the automobile modification market, clarify graded and categorized management of automobile modification, determine a list of automobile modification items, and improve management requirements for vehicle inspection and change registration. Improve the standard system for automobile modification. Study the establishment of an automotive modification sub-technical committee under the National Automotive Standardization Technical Committee, sort out a list of standards to be proposed or revised, accelerate the formulation of a batch of national standards, and research and develop automotive modification parts and modification technical specifications. The notice proposes supporting the development of the RV and camping industry. Improving the environment for RV travel and use. Support local governments in optimizing management policies for RV road travel. Simplify the land approval process for RV campsites. Enhance the supporting service level of RV campsites. Leveraging regional cultural and tourism resources, encourage the construction of a number of high-standard, multi-functional RV campsites in areas along scenic routes and in suburban areas, and improve supporting services such as maintenance and replenishment, water and electricity supply, medical rescue, and dining and accommodation. Optimize the setup of RV campsite signage, and release premium RV travel routes. When constructing or renovating public parking lots in cities, where conditions permit, dedicated parking spaces for motorhomes and towable caravans may be set up and management strengthened to better meet the parking demand for RVs. [Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments: Announce 40 pilot cities for automotive distribution and consumption reform] On June 23, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued a notice, announcing 40 pilot cities for automotive distribution and consumption reform and their key reform and innovation directions. For example, Tianjin focuses on automobile modification, classic cars, and auto racing, Shenyang in Liaoning focuses on used car circulation, Yangzhou in Jiangsu focuses on RV camping, Weinan in Shaanxi focuses on retired vehicle recycling, and so on. The notice requires each pilot city to, based on local industrial characteristics, market features, resource endowments, location conditions, functional positioning, and other actual situations, address bottleneck issues such as unreasonable restrictions on automotive distribution and consumption, improve reform and innovation measures, cultivate new scenarios, new formats, and new models of automotive consumption, and drive the integrated development of commerce, tourism, culture, sports, and healthcare. At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments synchronously issued a notice on several measures to cultivate and strengthen the automotive aftermarket consumption. (Xinhua News Agency) [Draft Financial Law submitted to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for first review] On June 23, 2026, the Financial Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft) was submitted to the 23rd meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress for first review. The Financial Law is a fundamental, comprehensive, and overarching law that governs the financial sector in China. It is positioned as the "1" in the financial legal system, playing a guiding, overarching, and standardizing role. Laws in areas such as banking, insurance, and securities constitute the "N," and other financial laws and regulations form the "X." These must align with the basic provisions established by the "1," with equal emphasis on formulation and revision, to specifically regulate financial activities in each field. Together, "1+N+X" build a scientific, complete, and unified financial legal system. The draft Financial Law adheres to the main theme of strengthening regulation, preventing risks, and promoting high-quality development, focusing on coordinating development and security, and striving to solve legal difficulties that hinder the high-quality development of finance. (Xinhua News Agency) [PBOC's reverse repo operation today net injects 75 billion yuan] PBOC today conducted a 524.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation, at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from previous. Today, 449.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. On the US dollar side: As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.03%, at 101.03. According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 36.3%. Through September, the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged is 26.1%, with a 52.2% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 21.4% chance of a 50-basis-point hike. (Jinshi Data APP) Citadel Securities said that Fed Chairman Warsh's commitment to reducing inflation has enhanced the Fed's credibility, thereby supporting long-term US Treasury yields and lowering term premiums. Following last week's Fed meeting, trading in the US Treasury market, worth $31 trillion, displayed a characteristic: long-term yields were more stable compared to two-year yields, which are more sensitive to policy. The firm's head of fixed income sales, Nohshad Shah, stated, "A highly credible Fed should benefit long-end rate performance." (Jinshi Data APP) Bank of America currently expects the Fed to raise interest rates three times this year, the latest sign that Wall Street is bracing for more aggressive Fed rate hikes. The bank's economists had previously expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged this year. The reason for the revision is strong economic data and a hawkish shift in the Fed's communication, signaling a more proactive approach to tackling inflation. Bank of America's forecast of three rate hikes remains in the minority: currently, only 19% of market investors expect three hikes, although this proportion has climbed from 3% a week ago. Investors see two rate hikes this year as the most likely outcome. In other currencies: After the yen weakened further and reports emerged of an online meeting between Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki and US Treasury Secretary Bessent, foreign exchange traders are on high alert for possible intervention. In early trading on Tuesday, the yen was at about 161.57 per dollar, near its lowest level in 40 years. NHK and Kyodo News reported that Katayama and Bessent may have discussed exchange rate issues. The market is concerned that after the Bank of Japan's rate hike at last week's policy meeting, it still has not raised borrowing costs quickly enough to curb inflation, keeping the yen under continuous pressure. Moreover, oil prices boosted by the US-Iran war also weighed additionally on the yen. Yamamoto Takeru, a trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank in New York, said: "Japanese authorities may hope to send a signal through the US-Japan talks that they are coordinating actions with the US, while hinting that the threshold for implementing intervention is not high. Although market concerns about intervention have intensified, the fundamental factors for a weaker yen have not changed, and USD/JPY could test the 162 level this week." (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: data to be released today include France's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, Germany's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, the Eurozone's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, the UK's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, the UK's preliminary June services PMI, the UK's June CBI industrial order balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 6, the US preliminary June S&P Global manufacturing PMI, the US preliminary June S&P Global services PMI, and the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, among others. Also worth noting: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem delivers a speech; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; MSCI releases its annual market classification review results, with South Korea expected to be added to the watch list for developed markets. Crude oil: As of 11:43, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic edged lower, with WTI down 0.32% and Brent down 0.43%. As the market weighed early progress in peace talks on the Iran war, which included US permission to sell some Iranian crude, oil prices stabilized. The US 60-day license allows Iran to sell some oil and petroleum products. Babin Rebecca, managing director and senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management, said, "The road to negotiations remains long, but the market may anticipate an oversupply before crude oil oversupply actually arrives, just as it had anticipated supply deficits before a genuine crude oil supply deficit materialized. Oil prices often overshoot." (Jin10 Data APP) Danske Bank forecasts that for the remainder of 2026, Brent crude will average $80 per barrel, and rise to $85 per barrel next year. The bank also said that even if a US-Iran deal is reached, oil prices will not return to the pre-war level of $60-$70 per barrel. The institution said a US-Iran deal would reopen oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, but warned it would take months for Iran's oil production and exports to return to normal. The bank pointed out that the US's continued release of strategic petroleum reserves could affect the near-term supply landscape, and said the US may choose to maintain this policy for political reasons ahead of the November midterm elections. Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] Futures side, the aluminum 2608 contract opened at 23,495 yuan/mt today, and after rising to an intraday high of 23,655 yuan/mt, bulls quickly exited, sending prices into a one-way decline. The market remained under pressure through the session without any notable rebound, and fell to a low of 23,200 yuan/mt before closing at that level by the morning close, a daily drop of 1.17%, or down 345 yuan/mt from the settlement price. Spot side, the ADC12 market overall maintained a steady trend today, with SMM ADC12 standing flat from the previous trading day at 24,100 yuan/mt. In the absence of fresh bullish or bearish drivers, enterprises generally adopted a wait-and-see approach, prioritizing selling at stable prices. It is expected that ADC12 prices will cont

SMM, June 23: Futures edged lower today, while spot cargo in South China gradually stabilized and improved. Absolute prices fell again to a lower range, and coupled with steady inventory destocking, holders held prices firm and sold slowly; however, the narrowing of the nearby month’s positive spread between futures contracts led to expectations of a mild strengthening in the spot-futures price spread. Actual shipments were somewhat high, supply was relatively ample, and room for price hikes was limited. Mainstream quotations were concentrated at premiums of 0 to +10 yuan/mt. On the demand side, downstream users gradually stepped up restocking at lower prices, solidifying the market bottom; large traders actively bid up prices to purchase and make markets, prompting some traders to follow up with need-based purchases, forming a complementary effect that added icing on the cake. Overall transactions were satisfactory. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at premiums of -95 to -55 yuan/mt over the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract.

SMM Nickel Report, June 23: Macro and Market News: (1) Ministry of Finance: In January–May, national general public budget revenue reached 10,046.5 billion yuan, up 4% YoY; securities transaction stamp tax revenue was 126.2 billion yuan, up 88.8% YoY. (2) UK Prime Minister Starmer announced his resignation, stating that he will offer unreserved support to his successor. The new leader will take office in September. Spot Market: On June 23, SMM #1 refined nickel price rose 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,350 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and domestic mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel ranged from -600 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2607) opened lower and declined in the morning session, closing the morning session at 133,690 yuan/mt, down 0.72%. The US Fed's hawkish signals raised rate hike expectations, the US dollar index broke through the 100 mark, and the nonferrous metals sector came under systemic pressure. US-Iran negotiations remain volatile; while expectations for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz persist, uncertainty is high. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, fluctuating in the 133,000–140,000 yuan/mt range.