In H1 2026, China’s aluminum extrusion industry ran under three clear traits: feeble domestic demand recovery, overseas demand sliding first then bouncing back, and a sharp split between booming and sluggish product segments.

Weak Downstream Demand, Intermediate Product Payables Under Pressure

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 13–17, 2026. Cooling US inflation and tight Indonesian nickel ore supply push the benchmark contract up RMB 450/mt in the week.

June Price Review: The monthly average price of non-oriented silicon steel exhibited a bottoming-out decline in June. On the supply-demand front, the market shifted from a slight balance to a narrow undersupply, with fundamentals continuing to improve marginally. The oversupply that previously weighed on the market gradually eased, providing price support. Spot prices performed stronger than expected, edging down only slightly. As a transitional month shifting from off-season to peak season, the supply-demand pattern improved in June. Fundamental Analysis: China's production schedule for non-oriented silicon steel continued to decline in July. Comparing with the same period in previous years, the scheduled production in July 2026 was lower than that of July 2025. Analyzing by grade, the proportion of NEV grades in the July production schedule rebounded to 15%, high grades accounted for 19%, while the proportion of low and mid-end grades pulled back to 66%. Steel mills continued to adjust their product mix, with the scheduled production of conventional low and mid-end grades shrinking accordingly. While total scheduled production continued to contract, supply-side pressure persisted. Maintaining original production levels for NEV and high-grade resources while significantly reducing low and mid-end grades optimized the supply structure to some extent, supporting market resilience. Downstream demand for non-oriented silicon steel showed structural divergence in May. In the home appliance sector, total silicon steel consumption pulled back MoM, with air conditioners remaining the core demand driver. Demand from the automotive sector was strong, with silicon steel consumption climbing to a high level for the period in May. Specifically, passenger NEVs provided the largest support for automotive silicon steel demand. Overall, traditional demand from home appliances weakened marginally, while NEV demand continued to strengthen. The demand center shifted toward the automotive sector, generating structural benefits for high-grade and NEV-grade non-oriented silicon steel. July Price Outlook: Supply side, China's planned production schedule for non-oriented silicon steel continued to decrease in July 2026, with reductions primarily focused on low and mid-end grades. On one hand, the off-season impact became more pronounced, downstream demand was soft, and purchasing interest declined, curbing production activity. On the other hand, industry leaders like Baowu and Shougang kept base prices unchanged in July, prioritizing price stability, but bearish sentiment persisted, making prices more likely to fall than rise. Most producers were loss-making and cut production autonomously. Demand side, in the home appliance sector, enterprises slowed their production pace, with orders falling MoM. The 618 shopping festival provided no significant order stimulus. Affected by low demand, high inventory, and high costs, some enterprises cut their production schedules ahead of schedule, and the implementation of new energy efficiency standards for some appliance products led to model upgrades that restricted production. In the automotive sector, automakers generally maintained normal production paces, with some increasing production schedules this month to meet mid-year targets. However, the sales promotions of the 618 festival and policies yielded limited boosting effects, and sales pressure persisted. Breaking it down, NEVs remained the main sales driver this month, orders for internal combustion engine vehicles showed no significant improvement, and exports were mainly directed to markets such as Russia, South America, and Southeast Asia, with the industry's full-year export volume expected to reach 12 million units. Cost side, with steel mill profits continuing to shrink and expectations of normalized local environmental protection-driven production restrictions, hot metal production is expected to continue to pull back. But as the off-season impact expands, the average hot-rolled coil price in July is expected to decline further MoM from June, though the extent of the decline will narrow. In summary, SMM expects that prices for low and mid-end non-oriented silicon steel will drift lower overall in July 2026, with some room for price reductions.

Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Price Movements Shanghai B23R085 grade: 12,200-12,200 yuan/mt Wuhan 23RK085 grade: 11,700-11,700 yuan/mt This week, China’s grain-oriented silicon steel market remained stable overall, with no notable price fluctuations. Mainstream quotations in the spot market were steady. Steel mills showed strong willingness to hold prices firm. For August, the base price for GO silicon steel was raised by 50 yuan/mt, with no significant rise or fall. Supply-demand conditions were generally stable. Steel mills maintained a steady production pace, resource supply was orderly, and market circulating inventory remained within reasonable range. Downstream end-users such as transformer enterprises purchased as needed, with just-in-time procurement dominating. The overall transaction pace was moderate. Market trading sentiment was cautious and rational. Traders mostly sold at stable prices, taking a wait-and-see stance, and price concessions or adjustments were rare. Looking at market fundamentals, bullish and bearish factors are currently balanced. The cost side provides bottom support, while the demand side shows no significant boost or weakening signs. Overall, the GO silicon steel market is expected to continue its stable pattern next week, with prices likely to remain steady. Transactions will mostly be just-in-time procurement against a wait-and-see stance, with no clear upward or downward trend for now. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, processed by SMM. It is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is original content of this official account. For any needs regarding reproduction, whitelisting, or cooperation, please contact us. Without permission, no one may reproduce, modify, use, sell, transfer, display, translate, compile, disseminate, or otherwise disclose the above content to any third party or authorize any third party to use it. Once discovered, SMM will pursue legal liability for infringement, including but not limited to requiring the assumption of contractual breach liability, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses.

[SMM Analysis] Futures Recovery Spurs Phased Transactions and Arrival Constraints, Stainless Steel Inventory Stops Rising and Pulls Back SMM, July 16 – This week, stainless steel social inventory ended its previous inventory buildup trend, stopped rising and pulled back overall, with marginal easing of inventory pressure. Total inventories in the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan declined notably, from 943,700 mt on July 9, 2026 to 921,300 mt at the latest period, down 2.37% WoW. The off-season inventory accumulation trend saw a phased reversal. During the week, SS futures strengthened and rose again, effectively repairing previously weak market sentiment. Coupled with spot price increases that created reasonable room for traders to offer discounts, the market’s “rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn” mentality was released intensively. Downstream end-user phased restocking demand kicked in, market transactions recovered markedly from the previous sluggish pattern, and destocking efficiency improved significantly. At the same time, typhoon weather disrupted regional logistics this week, restricting the pace of arrivals. Insufficient replenishment of spot supply in the market further tightened circulating resources from the supply side. Driven by the phased recovery in transactions and reduced arrivals, this successfully offset the inventory buildup pressure from weak off-season rigid demand, pushing social inventory to steadily pull back this week. Overall, the stronger futures repairing market sentiment, traders’ discounts promoting shipments, and typhoon-restricted arrivals were the key drivers behind the halt in rise and pullback of stainless steel inventories this week. Although real rigid demand from end-users during the off-season has not yet recovered materially and sustained transaction momentum remains insufficient, short-term sentiment-driven demand and circulation contraction formed an effective offset, effectively easing the previous inventory buildup pressure. At this stage, stainless…

[SMM Analysis: VC Supply-Demand Tight Balance to Persist in Short Term; HSC 60,000 mt Project Adjustment May Reshape Industry's Long-Term Competitive Landscape] On July 11, 2026, HSC New Energy Materials issued an announcement, making a major adjustment to the construction plan for the 60,000 mt vinylene carbonate (VC) project in Yunmeng, Hubei: The original phased construction plan for 30,000 mt in Phase I and 30,000 mt in Phase II was canceled and changed to a one-time overall construction of 60,000 mt VC capacity. The total project investment remains unchanged at 1.6 billion yuan, and the construction site, investment entity, and overall time to reach full production remain unchanged.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Stop Rising and Pull Back, Spot Prices Hold Steady while Transactions Cool According to SMM on July 17, the SS futures showed a subdued consolidation trend. Weighed down by the overall weakness in the nonferrous metals sector, SS futures moved lower simultaneously, with the most-traded SS contract closing at 14,645 yuan/mt. In the spot market, boosted by yesterday's SS futures gains, spot stainless steel prices were generally raised yesterday afternoon, with transactions gradually recovering. However, today's futures stopped rising and pulled back; although spot prices remained stable for the time being, transactions weakened. SS most-traded futures contract: At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was reported at 14,795 yuan/mt, up 130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 225-575 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil, the average price rose 100 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 75 yuan/mt in Foshan; for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi, prices were flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, prices in Wuxi were flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices were flat in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, macro-wise, the US CPI data pulled back, leading to cooling inflation expectations and a modest recovery in market risk appetite. Additionally, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) clarified that additional nickel ore production quotas for this year would be only moderate and limited, signaling limited growth potential and a sustained tight supply pattern for raw materials. This provided solid underlying support for the spot market, driving SHFE nickel and SS futures to stop falling and rebound. Regarding spot cargo and inventory, steel mills held prices firm to underpin the market...

This week, iron ore futures consolidated and strengthened. The DCE most-traded contract I2609 closed at 744.5 yuan/mt on Monday, and from Tuesday drifted higher, breaking through the 760 yuan/mt level. The core driver of this round of price strength came more from news-driven disruptions, while fundamental support was relatively limited. On the supply side, the strike at BHP's Port Hedland proceeded as planned, with port shipments suspended for about 8 hours, which is expected to reduce Australia's shipments this week by about 2 million mt. Meanwhile, long-term contract negotiations remained unresolved, SSF port spot cargo pick-up was restricted, and the market circulation of low-grade ore contracted notably, intermittently intensifying supply tightness expectations for certain products. On the demand side, however, performance remained weak. Affected by increased blast furnace maintenance, hot metal output continued to decline, and overall iron ore demand kept weakening, capping the upside room for prices. Chart: MMI 61% Port Spot Index Source: SMM This week, China's iron ore concentrate prices edged up marginally. By region, prices in Tangshan, Qian'an, and Qianxi in Hebei edged up by 1-5 yuan/mt; Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping in western Liaoning raised by 1-5 yuan/mt; east China also saw gains of 1-2 yuan/mt. Iron ore concentrate prices in the Tangshan area of Hebei were relatively stable, with 66% grade dry basis EXW prices including tax at 980-985 yuan/mt; the local area was less affected by rainfall, and production mostly continued as planned. The Chengde area was hit by heavy rainfall, and most mining and beneficiation plants suspended production and shipments—especially in Kuancheng, where the disaster was severe, and overall spot circulation was largely halted. At present, only a few producers in less rain-affected areas could maintain normal operations. Iron ore concentrate supply was also relatively tight in other regions. This week, China's iron ore concentrate prices edged up slightly. Chart: Imported Ore Prices Strengthened, Domestic-Imported Ore Price Spread Narrowed Slightly Outlook for Next Week Imported Ore: Looking ahead to next week, Tangshan's environmental protection-driven production restrictions have been gradually launched since mid-to-late July, but so far the actual impact on blast furnaces and rolling lines has been relatively limited. If restrictions tighten further next week, some steel mills could arrange temporary blast furnace maintenance, in which case hot metal output would have further room to decline, and iron ore demand may remain under pressure. However, there is still some support from the supply side and cost side. On the one hand, the SSF port restriction has not eased yet, and low-grade ore circulation remains tight. On the other hand, against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian concentrate supply continues to shrink; coupled with recurring US-Iran geopolitical tensions, these have intermittently lifted the cost floor for iron ore. Overall, the downside room for iron ore prices is limited in the short term, and prices are expected to continue moving sideways within a range. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the enforcement of environmental protection-driven production restrictions, marginal changes in hot metal output, and further disruptions from geopolitical factors to raw material supply. Domestic Ore: Looking ahead to next week, domestic iron ore concentrate supply is estimated to remain tight. On the demand side, however, hot metal output at local steel mills is expected to decline, and there is a relatively strong desire to push for lower prices for domestic iron ore concentrates. Nevertheless, market sentiment is clearly in favor of sellers at present and local iron ore concentrate prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term.

SMM July 17 News: Metals Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper slipped 0.44%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.37%. SHFE lead jumped 2.02%, SHFE zinc edged down 0.26%. SHFE tin dropped 0.78%. SHFE nickel slid 1.14%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract rose 0.54%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.22%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract gained 1.81%. The most-traded silicon metal contract edged down 0.36%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract dropped 2.12%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore gained 0.73%, rebar and HRC both rose within 0.4%. Stainless steel added 0.78%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.32%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 0.13%. Overseas base metals: As of 11:40 a.m., LME metals mostly fell. LME copper slipped 0.37%, LME aluminum edged higher, and LME lead rose 0.35%. LME zinc fell 0.4%, LME tin dropped 0.72%. LME nickel slid 1.64%. Precious metals: As of 11:40 a.m., COMEX gold gained 0.3%, and COMEX silver lost 0.63%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 1.03%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 3.83%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 3.15%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 3.87%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (Europe route) futures contract rose 2.36% to 2,628 points. As of 11:40 a.m. on July 17, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Lead: This week, Pb50 domestic TC (weekly) remained flat at 150 yuan/mt in metal content, and Pb60 import TC (weekly) stayed flat at -$170/dmt. TCs were largely stable during the week... Macro Front China: [SAFE: Will strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment and expectations guidance when necessary to maintain stable operation of the foreign exchange market] Li Bin, deputy head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that the SAFE always adheres to combining facilitation with risk prevention, resolutely safeguards the security baseline under open conditions, continuously improves the "macro-prudential plus micro-supervision" two-in-one management framework, and will strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment and expectations guidance when necessary to maintain stable operation of the foreign exchange market and prevent systemic risks. [PBOC's reverse repo operations resulted in a net injection of 430.5 billion yuan today] The PBOC conducted 450.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 20 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured, a net injection of 430.5 billion yuan was achieved on the day. US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 100.78. Federal Reserve’s Logan said the US Fed should raise interest rates to tackle elevated inflation — a remark hinting she may be prepared to oppose a decision to hold rates steady later this month. Logan said the June inflation data released on Tuesday showed price increases were slowing, but not enough to convince her that inflation has returned to the Fed’s 2% target path. “The June CPI data do indicate that inflation is likely to return to target, and the outlook is more optimistic,” Logan said, “but this path remains fragile. I currently believe that moderately raising rates would help better balance the outlook and risks.” Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: If the demand effects from AI infrastructure construction and consumption materialize before the productivity gains from AI, then AI could put upward pressure on inflation. According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 88.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bp hike is 11.2%. For September, the probabilities are: unchanged 48.8%, cumulative 25 bp hike 46.2%, and cumulative 50 bp hike 5.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data-wise: Today will see the release of US June housing starts (annualized), building permits, June import price index m/m, June industrial production m/m, July one-year inflation expectations (preliminary), July University of Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary), as well as Eurozone May seasonally adjusted current account, June CPI final y/y, and June CPI final m/m. In addition, China’s refined oil products will kick off a new price adjustment window. The 2026 World AI Conference and High-level Meeting on Global AI Governance runs from July 17 to 20 in Shanghai, and President Xi Jinping will attend the opening ceremony and deliver a keynote speech. 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan speaks, 2028 FOMC voting member and Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks on the economy and monetary policy, and US President Trump delivers a national address. Crude oil: As of 11:40, both crude oil benchmarks rose, with WTI up 0.92% and Brent up 0.82%. The US escalated its strikes against Iran further on Thursday, with reports indicating that the US military attacked an oil tanker near Iran’s main export port, causing a notable contraction in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. (Wall Street News) IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol: If oil and natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz do not improve in the coming weeks, we should be concerned about energy security. (Jin10 Data) Canada’s export credit agency said that global oil inventories continue to decline, making the energy market more vulnerable. Export Development Canada (EDC) expects international oil prices to average around $96/bbl this year and around $84/bbl in 2027. This forecast reflects ongoing market uncertainty and the need to rebuild depleted inventories to cope with potential future shocks. EDC Chief Economist Stuart Bergman said that oil storage facilities located around the world have now become the “marginal producer” of the oil market. Bergman noted that the pre-crisis inventory buildup and the release of strategic reserves helped offset the impact of supply reductions, but at the cost of global inventories falling below normal seasonal levels. He stated that if a permanent agreement could be reached to end the war and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-crisis levels, it would help ease tight supply. However, Bergman believes that the oil market remains under-supplied, and once geopolitical risks escalate, the market is highly vulnerable to further disruptions and wild price swings. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►