Over the past half-century of industrialisation, the global seaborne iron ore market consolidated around a duopoly dominated by Australia's Pilbara region and Brazil's Carajás and Iron Quadrangle districts. However, driven by macroeconomic cycle evolution, a structural shift in China's growth engine, and the steel industry's irreversible push toward low-carbon and green transformation, this traditional supply map is undergoing an unprecedented reshaping. On 26 November 2025, the first commercial vessel loaded with Simandou iron ore departed from the Port of Mabarya, marking the official commissioning of Guinea's Simandou Iron Ore Project — the world's largest undeveloped high-grade greenfield iron ore deposit by reserve. This milestone signals that the African continent, long relegated to secondary status, is progressively emerging as a significant new force in the global ferrous metals market. Africa's iron ore resources are widely regarded as the third-largest iron ore supply region globally, after Brazil's Carajás and Australia's Pilbara. With an estimated 13.8% share of global iron ore resources, and representing the most significant supply-side growth driver over the next five years, shifts in African iron ore dynamics will be a key determinant of international iron ore pricing over the long term. I. Global Iron Ore Market Background According to SMM research data, global iron ore production in 2025 is estimated at approximately 2.472 billion tonnes (bt). Africa contributes roughly 95 million tonnes (Mt), representing close to 4% of global output. As major mining projects progressively come on stream, Africa's iron ore production capacity is forecast to double by 2030, reaching approximately 259 Mt. Assuming no production curtailments elsewhere, Africa's global market share could rise to nearly 10%, while the overall global iron ore supply surplus is projected to widen to approximately 220 Mt. Although the international iron ore market has already entered a prolonged loose supply cycle, the substantive supply shock from African iron ore is expected to materialise gradually over the next five years. In the near term, Africa's estimated incremental shipment of approximately 15 Mt in 2026 — bolstered by its superior high-grade characteristics — is expected to be absorbed relatively smoothly by steelmakers seeking low-carbon blending feedstocks, resulting in a relatively moderate impact on absolute benchmark pricing. The critical inflection point is projected to fall in 2028–2029. As rail and port infrastructure currently under construction in West Africa is fully commissioned, a surge in high-grade iron ore output will exert heavy downward pressure on the right-hand side of the global iron ore cost curve. This will not only systematically compress the iron ore price floor but will trigger intense structural displacement — squeezing the operating margin of low-grade, high-cost producers. The current price downcycle is expected to persist through 2028. When international ore prices breach the USD 90/tonne marginal cost support level, higher-cost non-mainstream small and mid-size mines will be forced into curtailment and exit. The resulting supply shakeout will reshape the global iron ore supply structure into a multi-oligopoly dominated by ultra-large, low-cost operations (including the new African mines), complemented by quality mid-tier producers. II. Africa's Current Market Landscape: South Africa as Dominant Producer, West Africa Expanding Aggressively Building on the global context, this section focuses on Africa's overall iron ore landscape. As the primary driver of supply growth over the next five years, Africa's iron ore production is concentrated in West Africa and South Africa, currently dominated by three key countries. South Africa South Africa is the continent's largest producer, with 2025 output reaching approximately 67 Mt and export shipments maintaining an overwhelming 65% share of total African iron ore exports. However, South Africa's iron ore sector faces structural constraints limiting its organic growth headroom. As other emerging African resource nations commission significant new projects, South Africa's share of total African export volumes is projected to face sustained compression. Mauritania Mauritania is Africa's second-largest iron ore producer, with 2025 output of 15 Mt and export volumes of approximately 12 Mt, representing approximately 12% of the African market. Strategically situated adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean with high-grade iron ore deposits deep within the Sahara Desert, Mauritania possesses highly advantageous geographic and mineralogical characteristics. Its proximity to European and Middle Eastern markets — both in urgent need of green industrial raw materials — provides ideal conditions for the country to become a hub for global green metallurgy capacity relocation. Mauritania is expected to emerge as a highly promising iron ore supply nation going forward. Sierra Leone Sierra Leone is another important regional supply pole, with projected 2025 output also reaching approximately 12 Mt, holding a stable share of approximately 12% in the African export market. Chinese-invested iron ore mines within the country are actively scaling up their operations. Trade Flow Overview Based on full-year 2024 trade data, the proportion of African iron ore shipped to China is relatively low compared to traditional mainstream ore origins, at approximately 60%. The broader Pan-Asian market — encompassing China, Japan, and South Korea — absorbs approximately 70% of total African iron ore shipments. Western European countries, led by the Netherlands and Germany, constitute Africa's core secondary destination, accounting for close to 14% of trade flows. The remaining marginal trade flows are broadly diversified, extending to emerging steelmaking capacity clusters in the Middle East, including Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Key Corporate Players At the corporate level, South Africa's Kumba Iron Ore and Assmang rank as Africa's largest and second-largest iron ore producers, with annual output of approximately 37 Mt and 17 Mt respectively. Kumba Iron Ore: Kumba's mining operations — including the Sishen mine — are globally recognised for producing high-grade fines (Fe >62%) and metallurgically superior premium lump ore (Fe 65.2%). Under the prevailing trend of blast furnace (BF) emission reduction, this type of direct-charge lump ore — which reduces sintering-related carbon emissions — commands strong market demand and a substantial price premium. Assmang: Assmang similarly holds high-quality iron ore assets, operated as a 50:50 joint venture between African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) and Assore. Its Assmang Fines and Assmang Lump products (Fe 64–65%) are also direct-charge, high-quality materials. However, the company's key bottleneck lies not at the pithead but on the rail. Heavy dependence on Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) for haulage means logistics constraints frequently cap its achievable shipment volumes. SNIM (Société Nationale Industrielle et Minière): Mauritania's state-owned mining company is Africa's third-largest iron ore producer after the two South African majors. Unlike mainstream Australian and Brazilian ores, SNIM products occupy a distinctive niche in terms of physicochemical specifications and market segment. Its most widely traded product, TZFC fines, is characterised by extremely low alumina (Al2O3) and phosphorus (P) content. As an excellent blending ore, major steelmakers regularly blend SNIM fines with high-alumina Australian fines (such as certain Pilbara blend products) to significantly dilute the impurity ratio in the burden, thereby optimising blast furnace performance metrics. III. Africa's Market Transformation: Major Producers Facing Stagnation; Emerging Projects as Primary Growth Drivers Where does future growth lie? According to SMM observations, Africa is expected to undergo a significant structural transformation within the next five years. Multiple large-scale iron ore projects across the continent are currently under construction, with scheduled commissioning prior to 2030. Based on our modelling, African iron ore supply is forecast to grow substantially from the current approximately 95 Mt to 260 Mt over five years — a cumulative increase of 85%. The market structure is also expected to shift from South Africa-dominated Western-oriented exports to a Guinea-led export paradigm. Guinea — Simandou Iron Ore Project The primary growth driver will be Guinea's renowned Simandou iron ore project, jointly developed by multiple entities and representing the world's largest undeveloped high-grade open-pit hematite deposit. The project holds reserves in excess of 5 billion tonnes (bt) and a designed production capacity of 120 Mt per annum, making it the project with the greatest strategic potential to reshape the existing iron ore market structure. Since first ore shipments in late November 2025, cumulative exports from the principal export hub — the Port of Mabarya — reached approximately 1.6 Mt through Q1 2026. Blocks 1 & 2, developed under the Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), have successfully commenced production, with 2026 capacity expected to reach nameplate and ramp-up to 60 Mt per annum projected over the next two to three years. Blocks 3 & 4, led by Simfer (a Rio Tinto and Baowu joint venture), are forecast to commission in Q1 2026, with estimated 2026 shipments of 5 Mt and a 30-month ramp-up timeline to reach 60 Mt per annum. In aggregate, Guinea is projected to achieve 120 Mt per annum before 2030, becoming the world's second-largest single iron ore project by capacity — second only to Vale's S11D project in Brazil (designed capacity of 200 Mt post-expansion, expected by 2030). Other African Countries — Key Development Projects Other nations — including Liberia, Gabon, Sierra Leone, and the Republic of Congo — all have iron ore projects under development. Projects scheduled for commissioning before 2030 account for a combined planned capacity of approximately 46 Mt. The largest single project is ArcelorMittal Liberia's (AML) Tokadeh Phase II, expected to commission in H2 2026 and reach a nameplate capacity of 20 Mt per annum by year-end, producing iron ore concentrate with an estimated grade exceeding Fe 66%. Given that AML's European steelmaking capacity cannot absorb such a large volume increment in the near term, the majority of Tokadeh's output is expected to enter the international seaborne market, exerting pricing pressure on the iron ore concentrate segment. South Africa — Structural Constraints on Production Growth South Africa's output is expected to remain broadly stable in the 63–67 Mt range, with mild downside risk. The primary underlying cause is the country's heavy dependence on the heavy-haul Sishen–Saldanha Bay rail corridor, operated by Transnet Freight Rail (TFR). In recent years, TFR has suffered a severe reduction in effective haulage capacity due to locomotive fleet shortages, frequent cable theft incidents, and chronic infrastructure underinvestment, materially constraining the rail transport of major bulk commodities including iron ore and coal. In its FY2025 annual results published in February 2026, Kumba Iron Ore — South Africa's dominant iron ore producer — reported total finished goods inventory of 7.5 Mt, up from 6.9 Mt at end-2024. With rail haulage capacity unable to match mine production, South Africa's major iron ore producers have been compelled to stockpile large volumes at mine sites. To avoid inventory saturation, miners have been forced to proactively revise production guidance downward. While producers are actively addressing haulage constraints, the deeply entrenched structural issues on the rail network are unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Mauritania — SNIM Long-Term Strategic Growth Blueprint Post-2030, attention turns to SNIM's strategic growth roadmap. Under its Horizon 1 programme, the company plans to raise annual production capacity to 45 Mt by 2031, through the implementation of lean manufacturing practices, equipment and technology upgrades, and the co-development of new mineral reserves. Of this total, 20 Mt will be produced under SNIM's wholly owned capacity, while the remaining 25 Mt will be realised through joint ventures with international capital partners. SNIM has further set a long-term target to expand annual capacity to 80 Mt by 2045 under its Horizon 3 plan. Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) — MIFOR (Grand Est Iron Ore Project) On 26 March 2026, the DRC and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding designating the MIFOR project as a priority flagship initiative. The deposit is estimated to hold cumulative resources of 15–20 bt, with an average grade exceeding Fe 60% — a potential scale approximately 2.5 times that of Guinea's Simandou. Phase I capital expenditure is estimated at USD 28.9 billion, encompassing the construction of a heavy-haul railway and the utilisation of Congo River navigation, ultimately linking to a deep-water port at Banana on the Atlantic coast. Phase I design capacity stands at 50 Mt per annum, with a long-term target of scaling to 300 Mt per annum. These projects collectively underscore Africa's inevitable emergence as an indispensable iron ore supply source for the global steel industry. IV. Global Steel Industry Chain Transformation: Can Africa, as a Hub for High-Grade Ore, Enable DRI Production? High-Grade Ore as a DRI Feedstock Advantage Notably, the majority of Africa's current and planned iron ore projects produce ore at average total iron (Fe) grades predominantly above 65%, with extremely low impurity content. This scarce, high-grade ore is the ideal feedstock for the Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) process. As the DRI-Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) green steel route gains traction across Europe, the Americas, and China, demand for iron ore at Fe 65% and above will grow exponentially on the demand side. This will confer a substantial 'grade premium' on major projects, including South Africa's Kumba, Guinea's Simandou, and other future African producers. Over the longer term, iron ore pricing benchmarks are inexorably shifting away from the traditional Platts 62% Fe index, and African ore producers will gain bargaining leverage when renewing long-term supply agreements, thereby reshaping the global industry chain profit distribution structure. DRI Investment Pipeline in Africa In alignment with global carbon neutrality objectives, international investors — encouraged by local governments — are actively deploying capital into high value-added downstream processing facilities, including DRI plants and high-grade pellet facilities, aimed at leveraging Africa's abundant high-grade iron ore resources and vast renewable energy potential for DRI production. According to SMM observations, Africa is projected to add approximately 20 Mt of DRI capacity by 2030. The largest single project is a Libyan integrated DRI complex, jointly developed by Turkish steelmaker Tosyali and the Libyan National Steel Company, with a total design capacity of 8.1 Mt. China's Decarbonisation Push and the Global Green Steel Transition As China advances its dual carbon targets — carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 — the domestic steelmaking sector is undergoing significant adjustment. The traditional carbon-intensive Blast Furnace–Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) long route faces increasingly stringent capacity replacement policies and environmental regulations. Simultaneously, the global trade system is accelerating the imposition of carbon costs, most notably through the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), compelling global steel supply chains to accelerate the transition from the source toward a low-carbon, ultimately zero-carbon 'green steel' era. In the context of this irreversible transition, the DRI-EAF short-route process has become the most commercially viable decarbonisation pathway. To meet surging global demand for green steel, market projections indicate that global DRI designed production capacity will need to expand by hundreds of millions of tonnes during the 2030s. This scale of expansion will profoundly alter the global steel supply structure: the share of traditional hot metal (pig iron) production will progressively decline, while low-carbon DRI supply will directly determine the competitiveness of major economies in the global green steel market. In particular, 'hydrogen metallurgy' — using green hydrogen to replace natural gas and coking coal as the reductant in iron ore reduction — is widely recognised by the industry as the core technology for achieving ultimate zero-carbon steelmaking. Africa as the Future 'Green Iron' Production Hub Represented by world-class high-grade iron ore projects such as Guinea's Simandou, the progressive commissioning of these mega-mines is expected to inject over 100 Mt of high-grade iron ore per year into the global market, substantially alleviating the global scarcity of DRI-grade ore. More critically, North Africa and West Africa possess world-leading solar and wind energy potential, enabling large-scale, low-cost green hydrogen production in situ. This perfect combination of 'high-grade ore + low-cost green hydrogen' is increasingly inclinng multinational capital and steel majors toward establishing DRI production lines directly on African soil — reducing iron ore to low-carbon Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) on-site for ocean transport to EAF facilities in Asia and Europe. Africa is thus formally transitioning from its historical role as a raw material exporter to become an indispensable link in the green iron production chain of the future.

SMM June 3 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market rose nearly across the board. SHFE copper gained 1.03%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.45%, SHFE lead rose 0.45%, SHFE zinc gained 1.61%, SHFE tin rose 1.83%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.64%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.39%, and the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.51%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures continued the downtrend from the previous two trading days, falling 2.58%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.63%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 1.96%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore was flat at 784.5 yuan/mt, rebar edged down 0.09%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.21%, and stainless steel rose 0.2%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.26%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.18%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.34%, LME aluminum rose 0.17%, LME lead and LME nickel both fell within 0.4%. LME zinc and LME tin edged up. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.16% and COMEX silver fell 0.29%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.07%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.18%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.82%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.02%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 0.67%, closing at 3,758 points. As of 11:41 on June 3, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract in North China were reported at an average discount of 400 yuan/mt to a discount of 300 yuan/mt, with the average discount of 350 yuan/mt down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 106,360 yuan/mt, up 825 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved a net withdrawal of 177.6 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted zero reverse repo operations today. As 177.6 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 177.6 billion yuan was achieved on the day. [ Zibo, Shandong: Optimizing housing provident fund usage policies ] Zibo officially implemented new optimized provident fund policies, adopting multiple measures to boost housing consumption and safeguard residents' essential and upgrading housing needs. The new policies broadened the scope of provident fund withdrawals, allowing down payment and owner-occupied housing withdrawals to be linked with funds from the homebuyer's spouse, both parents, and children. Elevator installation withdrawals were also expanded to include old elevator replacement scenarios. Lending side, housing unit count can be reduced for families with multiple children, purchases of high-grade residential properties or completed homes, and one loan record can be waived for trade-in policies; the upper limit of second-hand housing age plus loan term was raised to 50 years, and the lending ban on properties over 300㎡ was lifted. The new policy added loan extension services, while opening up commercial-to-provident fund and commercial-to-combined loan conversions for flexible employment workers, further reducing residents' home purchase and repayment costs. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 99.24. US April JOLTs job openings surged from 6.89 million in March to 7.62 million, reaching the highest level in nearly two years, while layoffs declined. These signs indicated that the labour market remained robust despite pressure on enterprises from rising energy costs caused by the Iran war. The professional and business services sector accounted for nearly all of the increase. Total hiring fell to 5.12 million, partially offsetting the sharp increase in March, while layoffs also declined to 1.69 million. These data suggested that US labour demand has stabilized this year compared to near-zero job growth in 2025. Although job openings remained well below levels reached during the post-pandemic reopening period, this stability may further undermine the case for interest rate cuts, with US Fed officials increasingly discussing the possibility of rate hikes. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 98.6%, with a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through July was 92.4%, with a 6.3% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike, and a 1.3% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. Fed Chairman Waller has hired two outside individuals as advisors to assist him in the early stages of his tenure; one of them co-authored a conservative policy blueprint that recommended sweeping structural reforms to the US Fed. According to people familiar with the matter, one of the advisors is Paul Winfree. He served as a White House domestic policy expert during Trump's first term. He is also a credited author of the US Fed chapter in "Project 2025," a conservative policy blueprint developed ahead of the 2024 election. The other advisor is Daniel Heil, a policy fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution who served as an economic policy advisor to the 2016 presidential campaign team. His recent writings have primarily focused on cutting federal healthcare spending costs and social security issues. Both individuals have long been active in conservative policy circles, and their professional backgrounds lie in areas outside the US Fed's core responsibilities. A person familiar with the matter said the two advisors would work on temporary contracts to assist Warsh with policy analysis and planning; Warsh has not yet made a final decision on whether they will take on longer-term, formal job titles within the US Fed. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: Traders were reluctant to push the yen exchange rate above the key 160 level amid the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen. The yen edged down to near 160 in early Wednesday trading, touching its weakest level since the authorities intervened in late April. The yen still declined despite Japan spending a record 11.73 trillion yen ($73.35 billion) to support the currency between April 28 and May 27. Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki reiterated on Wednesday that the authorities were prepared to respond to foreign exchange fluctuations at any time as needed. Gaitame.com Research Institute analyst Nakamura Tsutomu said: "As USD/JPY approaches the 160 level, intervention concerns are escalating rapidly, triggering a psychological battle in the market, but a test of 160 could happen at any time. With almost no signs of a breakthrough in US-Iran permanent ceasefire negotiations, pressure on the yen is increasing. The large interest rate differential between the US and Japan is also putting the yen under pressure after the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged in April. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo is scheduled to speak on Wednesday afternoon, his last scheduled speech before the central bank's rate-setting meeting on June 16." Overnight index swaps indicated the probability of a rate hike this month was approximately 84%. (Jin10 Data APP) Australia's economic growth slowed more than expected last quarter as households cut spending in the face of rising fuel costs and higher interest rates. Government data released on Wednesday showed GDP grew 0.3% in the first three months of the year, below expectations and roughly one-third of the Q4 2025 growth rate. The 2.5% annual growth rate also fell short of expectations. The head of national accounts at the Australian Bureau of Statistics said: "Economic growth slowed in the March quarter, with mild household and public sector spending. Rising interest rates and significantly higher fuel costs in March likely created an environment of more cautious consumer behavior." Swap traders consolidated the view that the probability of a rate hike at the August meeting was only slightly above 50%, and maintained the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise rates once more before year-end. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Data to be released today include US May ADP employment, US May S&P Global Services PMI final, US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US April factory orders month-over-month, France May Services PMI final, Eurozone May Services PMI final, Eurozone April PPI month-over-month, Germany May Services PMI final, UK May Services PMI final, and Australia Q1 GDP annual rate. In addition, attention should be paid to: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will deliver a speech, and US Fed Governor Barr will participate in a dialogue at the 2026 Community Development Bankers Association Peer Forum. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.92% and Brent up 0.82%. According to CCTV News: On June 2 local time, the US Central Command stated that US forces took action against an oil tanker heading to an Iranian port in the Arabian Gulf and disabled it. The war between Iran and the US has no end in sight, diplomatic negotiations have stalled, and military conflicts in the Gulf region continue to escalate. A series of developments indicate that this conflict, which erupted in late February this year, continues to drain all parties through repeated frictions. Oil prices rose after the news broke. (Wallstreetcn) US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 29 was -6.757 million barrels, vs. expectations of -3.605 million barrels and a prior value of -2.819 million barrels. US API gasoline inventory for the week ending May 29 was 3.454 million barrels, vs. expectations of -98,000 barrels and a prior value of -3.199 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[India] Recently, Indian HRC FOB prices were at 550 - 555 USD/tonne. As domestic demand declined with the approaching rainy season, coupled with Brazil's anti-dumping measures against certain Chinese products, Indian exporters were attempting to target Brazil as a market for selling steel products to capture market share. According to surveys, freight costs from India to Brazil were approximately above 100 USD/tonne. Due to excessively high transportation costs, this was not expected to materialize in the short term. If the rupee continues to depreciate and prices continue to decline, it may attract buyers from Brazil.

SMM June 2 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 1.21%, SHFE aluminum rose 1.01%, and SHFE lead edged down. SHFE zinc rose 0.53%. SHFE tin gained 3.63%. SHFE nickel rose 0.61%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 1.15%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.49%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures dropped 3.96%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.06%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 1.54%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore gained 0.51%, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil edged down, and stainless steel rose 1.42%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.41%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 0.66%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper, LME lead, and LME nickel edged down, all with declines within 0.1%. LME aluminum rose 0.96%, LME zinc gained 0.24%. LME tin rose 1.3%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold rose 0.48%, and COMEX silver gained 0.5%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 1.17%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures dropped 0.3%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.71%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.71%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 2.04%, closing at 3,776.5 points. As of 11:41 on June 2, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot prices and fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,960 yuan/mt, up 1,115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,870 yuan/mt, up 1,130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front China: [PBOC net drained 248.8 billion yuan via open market operations today] The PBOC conducted 200 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos, with the operation rate at 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. A total of 249 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.02%, at 99.18. US Treasury prices fell as signs of a stalemate in peace negotiations between the US and Iran raised concerns that high energy costs would exacerbate inflation and prompt the US Fed to raise interest rates. Monday's sell-off pushed yields higher across the $31 trillion US Treasury market, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising about 6 basis points to nearly 4.5%, while crude oil prices surged more than 7%. The two-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to US Fed policy expectations, also rose about 6 basis points to 4.07%. Earlier, Iran had suspended dialogue with the US through intermediaries in protest of Israeli actions. Traders raised expectations that the US Fed's next move would be a rate hike. The swap market showed that traders had fully priced in one rate hike by March 2027 and saw a 50% chance of a hike as early as October. In addition, according to the CME "FedWatch" tool: the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 98.4%, with a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with an 8.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data) On the data front: The US April JOLTs job openings, Switzerland's April trade balance, UK April central bank mortgage approvals, and the Eurozone May CPI year-on-year preliminary reading and Eurozone May CPI month-on-month preliminary reading were due to be released today. In addition, 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari was scheduled to deliver a speech, 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack was scheduled to speak on monetary policy, and Bank of England Governor Bailey was set to attend a House of Lords hearing. On crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets moved sideways, with WTI down 0.5% and Brent down 0.38%. CNN reported on June 1, citing a regional source familiar with the US-Iran negotiations, that talks had gotten back on track. Iranian media had previously reported that negotiations between Iran and the US were suspended due to Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon. However, US President Trump subsequently stated that he had spoken with the Israeli side and that negotiations with Iran were "moving fast." (Xinhua News Agency) Oil prices stabilized after posting their largest gains in nearly a month, while uncertainty over the prospects of US-Iran peace negotiations heightened the risk of prolonged disruptions to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. According to US media, Trump said that a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz was expected to be reached within the coming week. However, he also noted that the US side still needed to "finalise a few details" before a final deal was reached. Last month, oil prices once pulled back, buoyed by market optimism that the two sides were likely to reach a deal. The day before, reports emerged that Iran had halted negotiations with the US, threatened to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and planned to fully blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC, said: "If there are more signs that the parties are no longer actively negotiating, then the 'safety cushion' that the market had previously relied on in its pricing — namely expectations of the best outcome — will also disappear." She added: "During this conflict, we have already witnessed too many twists and turns, and nothing is set in stone at this point." (Jin10 Data) In addition, Russian local authorities said a fire broke out at the Ilsky Oil Refinery in the Krasnodar region following a drone attack. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 1 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, most base metals on the domestic market fell, with SHFE copper edging up, while SHFE aluminum and SHFE lead dipped slightly. SHFE zinc fell 0.84%. SHFE tin rose 0.85%. SHFE nickel fell 0.79%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.17%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.35%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 0.26%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.75%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 1.19%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with iron ore down 0.38%, rebar up 0.67%, hot-rolled coil up 0.59%, and stainless steel down 0.81%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 7.2%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 5.1%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:44, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.56%. LME aluminum rose 0.2%. LME lead rose 0.22%. LME zinc rose 0.08%. LME tin rose 0.51%. LME nickel rose 0.34%. Precious metals, as of 11:44, COMEX gold fell 0.88%, and COMEX silver rose 0.16%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.78%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.13%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.97%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.72%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 11.26%, closing at 3,884 points. As of 11:44 on June 1, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,845 yuan/mt, down 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,740 yuan/mt, down 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Returning from the weekend, Guangdong inventory saw a significant increase... Macro front China: [The "Regulations of the State Council on Outbound Investment" was published and will take effect on July 1, 2026] It mentioned that investors conducting outbound investment activities shall not export or use goods, technologies, services, and related data prohibited from export by the state, or export or use goods, technologies, services, and related data restricted from export by the state without authorization; shall not transfer goods, technologies, services, and related data prohibited from export by the state to other countries (regions) through means such as cross-border dispatch of technical personnel, organizing personnel to work in other countries (regions), providing cross-border technical guidance, or arranging cross-border training, or transfer goods, technologies, services, and related data restricted from export by the state to other countries (regions) without authorization. [Shanghai Municipal Government General Office Released the Shanghai Service Industry Development 15th Five-Year Plan] The plan mentioned that by 2030, the service industry is expected to achieve notable progress in optimizing its structure, fostering momentum, and improving quality and efficiency, with continuous improvement in digitalization, standardization, integration, and internationalization. The added value of the service industry is expected to reach approximately 6 trillion yuan, basically forming a new high-quality and efficient service industry system led by high-level urban core service functions, anchored by high-end producer services, and supported by high-grade consumer services, building Shanghai's service industry into a "resilient foundation" for economic growth with higher capacity and a "dynamic hub" for global service resource allocation with stronger influence. (Source: Wallstreetcn) [PBOC Net Drained 247 Billion Yuan via Open Market Operations Today] The PBOC conducted 11 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. A total of 258 billion yuan in reverse repos matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:44, the US dollar index rose 0.13% to 99.08. According to an article by Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed whisperer," in a speech on Sunday evening local time, former US Fed Chair Powell stated that if any administration found an excuse to remove Fed officials simply over policy disagreements, the Fed would not be able to survive. Powell currently serves as a Fed governor. While speaking broadly about institutions, the rule of law, and related topics, he did not name any president, nor did he express any specific personal grievances. However, when addressing the institutional framework designed to keep monetary policy decisions out of presidential control, his language was extremely precise. Powell emphasized the legal protections designed to prevent the arbitrary removal of Fed officials and specifically noted that the executive branch "plays no role in selecting or supervising the 12 regional Reserve Bank presidents," who vote on interest rate decisions alongside Fed governors. "If any administration found an excuse to remove Fed officials simply over policy disagreements, future administrations would inevitably follow suit," Powell said. He noted that the credibility the Fed had built over decades was a "priceless asset," and he and his colleagues "have a responsibility to defend it." (Source: Jin10 Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report noted that the current US Fed transition pace was relatively smooth, and within the next two years, among the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board, only JeromeGovernor Powell may see changes due to his term ending in 2028, while regional Fed presidents face no formal departure pressure before 2028. New Chair Warsh was sworn in on May 22 and his remarks did not release dovish signals. Overall, dovish forces within the US Fed have notably weakened, with neutral and neutral-to-hawkish stances in the majority on policy, though attention is still needed on US economic conditions, geopolitical conflict risks, and other factors. Data: Today's releases include the UK May Nationwide House Price Index MoM, Switzerland April real retail sales YoY, France May manufacturing PMI final, Germany May manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone May manufacturing PMI final, UK May manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone April unemployment rate, US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US May ISM manufacturing PMI, and US April construction spending MoM. In addition, attention is needed on: the opening of NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026, with Jensen Huang delivering a keynote speech. Crude oil: As of 11:44, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 2.26% and Brent up 2%. Oil prices rebounded from six-week lows as the outlook for an Iran war and peace agreement remained unclear. The US and Iran exchanged messages over the weekend seeking to revise a draft agreement aimed at extending the ceasefire and opening the Strait of Hormuz, but whether substantive progress was made remains unclear. Previously, optimism that the two sides would reach some form of peace agreement and that energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would resume had led to crude oil's first monthly decline this year. "Neither Iran nor the US will concede or compromise on their bottom lines for reaching a deal, some of which have not changed since before the war," said economist Gaoud. These bottom lines include the nuclear program, control of the Strait of Hormuz, the ballistic missile program, and sanctions. He also noted that oil prices may remain sensitive to local developments and statements from political leaders. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

According to SMM research, freight rates for PV products shipped to Europe have increased significantly recently, with quotes on some routes rising by around USD 2,000-3,000 per high-cube container from previous levels. Meanwhile, congestion has emerged at Rotterdam and some ports in Portugal, leading to vessel schedule delays and lower container pickup efficiency. This is expected to cause certain disruptions to European module delivery schedules and temporarily push up module landed costs. SMM will continue to monitor the subsequent impact.

SMM News, May 29: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals rose nearly across the board. SHFE copper was up 0.86%, SHFE aluminum up 0.19%, SHFE lead down 0.45%, SHFE zinc up 1.05%, SHFE tin up 1.31%, and SHFE nickel edged down. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures edged up, the most-traded alumina contract was up 1.08%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract up 0.9%, the most-traded silicon metal contract up 0.12%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract up 0.45%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.77%, rebar up 0.38%, hot-rolled coil up 0.47%, and stainless steel down 0.57%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal edged up, and the most-traded coke contract was up 0.42%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals fell nearly across the board. LME copper was down 0.41%, LME aluminum down 0.68%, LME lead down 0.12%, LME zinc up 0.18%, LME tin down 1.61%, and LME nickel down 0.52%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold was down 0.1% and COMEX silver down 0.26%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was up 1.59% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract up 1.86%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract was up 0.89% and the most-traded palladium futures contract down 1.45%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight contract was up 0.62%, closing at 3,016 points. As of 11:41 on May 29, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Aluminum: On May 29, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was quoted at 24,060, up 50, at a discount of 225 to the current-month contract, narrowing by 5. Futures edged up today, and spot cargo in South China was generally stable with slight fall. Absolute prices remained at relatively low levels and inventory saw significant drawdowns. In the morning, most holders continued to hold prices firm for shipments... Macro front China: [ CCPIT: Global Trade Friction Index Remained at High Level in March ] This morning (May 29), the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) held a press conference to release the latest Global Trade Friction Index. Data showed that in March this year, the global trade friction index remained at a high level. Composite index, the global trade friction index stood at 104 in March 2026, remaining at a high level. The value of trade involved in global trade friction measures fell 29.1% YoY but rose 2.8% MoM. Country-specific indices, among the 20 countries (regions) monitored, the top 3 were the US, India, and the EU. The US accounted for the largest amount involved in global trade friction measures, ranking first in 11 out of the past 12 months. Wang Yifei, spokesperson of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), stated that in terms of industry indices, among the 13 major industries within the monitoring scope, trade friction measures were concentrated in the electronics, chemicals, transportation equipment, and machinery equipment industries, with the electronics industry ranking first in the trade friction index. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieved a Net Withdrawal of 30 Billion Yuan for the Day and a Net Injection of 104.4 Billion Yuan for the Week] The PBOC conducted 123 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 153 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 30 billion yuan was achieved for the day. This week, the PBOC conducted 908.9 billion yuan of reverse repo operations. As a total of 500 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 304.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, a net injection of 104.4 billion yuan was achieved for the week. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.1% to 99.1. Fed's Musalem said on Thursday that, like several other Fed policymakers, he believed the "easing bias" language should have been removed from the post-meeting statement last month, thereby creating the possibility of an interest rate hike. "I supported the rate decision, but I believe the easing bias no longer aligns with the economic outlook and the balance of risks," Musalem said. Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T. Rowe Price, said the market may still be underestimating the likelihood of further policy tightening by the US Fed. In her report, Uruci noted that since early May, the Iran conflict has lasted longer than expected, oil prices have risen, and US economic growth has remained resilient. While the US Fed can look through a temporary energy shock, sustained oil and import price pressures could affect inflation expectations, wage dynamics, and enterprise pricing behavior. Uruci shifted her base case to the federal funds rate remaining unchanged over the next 12 months. She assigned a 45% probability to rates staying unchanged, a 35% probability of an interest rate hike by year-end or early 2027, and a 20% probability of an interest rate cut. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 99.4%, with a 0.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 93%, with a 6.9% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. (Jin10 Data APP) A series of economic data confirmed market concerns about US inflation, while economic activity sent mixed signals. US durable goods orders rose 7.9% in April, easily surpassing the Wall Street Journal's market consensus expectations of 3.5%; however, this figure was largely driven by a surge in non-defense aircraft equipment orders. The second estimate of Q1 GDP growth was unexpectedly revised down from 2% to 1.6%. Weekly initial jobless claims rose more than expected, increasing from an upwardly revised 210,000 to 215,000, suggesting an acceleration in the pace of enterprise layoffs. PCE inflation accelerated as expected, rising from 3.5% to 3.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of France's preliminary May CPI m/m, France's final Q1 GDP y/y, Germany's seasonally adjusted May unemployment change, Germany's seasonally adjusted May unemployment rate, Germany's preliminary May CPI m/m, Canada's March GDP m/m, and the US May Chicago PMI, among other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin participating in a fireside chat at a conference hosted by Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in an exchange event at Korea University; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivering a speech; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering a speech; US Fed Governor Bowman delivering a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen delivering a speech on the economic outlook. Crude oil: As of 11:41, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 1.26% and Brent down 0.85%. The market expected a possible US-Iran ceasefire extension agreement, putting oil prices under pressure. Meanwhile, the back-and-forth nature of bilateral agreement negotiations also led to heightened volatility in oil prices. The US and Iran are nearing a historic 60-day ceasefire and maritime corridor unblocking agreement, but contradictory statements from senior officials on both sides indicate that core disagreements over Iran's nuclear plan and control of the Strait of Hormuz persist, leaving significant uncertainty over whether a final deal can be reached. According to Xinhua News Agency, US officials stated that US-Iran negotiators had largely reached agreement on the terms of a memorandum of understanding on the 26th, pending approval from senior leadership on both sides. The Iranian side stated it had obtained the necessary approval and was ready to sign. US negotiators briefed Trump on the details of the memorandum of understanding. "The President told the mediators that he would like to take a few days to consider the matter." Meanwhile, according to CCTV News, the Iranian side stated that as of now, Iran has not agreed to any memorandum of understanding, nor has it confirmed to Pakistani mediators that it has approved the memorandum. In addition, Iran explicitly stated that it had not made any commitments on the nuclear issue during negotiations with the US. (Wallstreetcn) US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Oil prices will be lower than pre-conflict levels. Nearly 2,000 ships are waiting for port departures in the Gulf, and supply on the other end of the oil market will be very ample. (Jin10 Data APP) South Korean government officials said on the 28th that the South Korean government decided to ease mandatory oil reserve requirements for private enterprises starting from the 29th to release private oil reserves to the market. The country has not yet decided when to release national oil reserves, keeping them as a "last card" to deal with potential oil crises. Yang Ki-wook, an official from South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, announced on the same day that starting from the 29th, the government will reduce the mandatory oil reserve requirement for private oil companies from 40 days to 20 days, releasing oil reserves equivalent to 20 days of consumption. He stated that this measure was to fulfill commitments made to the International Energy Agency. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[Saudi Arabia] Saudi major mills' domestic rebar prices have risen to 780 USD/tonne, though trading activity has been light this week due to the Eid al-Adha holiday. On the cost side, recent increases in Saudi scrap prices are providing some support to the long steel market. On the import front, steel orders from China to the Middle East have gradually resumed recently, though volumes are still down about 80% compared to the same period in 2025. Destinations mainly include Saudi Arabia's Jeddah port and Oman's Sohar port, with freight rates at around 55 USD/tonne. After discharge, cargo is typically trucked overland to inland destinations.

SMM May 28: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper dropped 1%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.08%, SHFE lead declined 0.99%, SHFE zinc lost 0.54%, SHFE tin slid 1.05%, and SHFE nickel fell 1.07%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.82%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.14%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract gained 0.27%. The most-traded silicon metal contract dropped 0.64%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.9%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore edged up, rebar and hot-rolled coil each gained less than 0.5%, and stainless steel fell 0.5%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.09%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.44%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals fell nearly across the board. LME copper dropped 0.2%. LME aluminum and LME lead both fell 0.15%. LME zinc was flat at $3,507.5/mt. LME tin declined 0.55%. LME nickel lost 0.45%. Precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 1.47% and COMEX silver dropped 2.6%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 2.75%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 4.97%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 3.78%, and the most-traded palladium futures declined 3.75%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.22% to 2,995.5 points. As of 11:39 on May 28, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,695 yuan/mt, down 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,590 yuan/mt, down 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again, mainly driven by rising arrivals and weakening consumption... Macro Front China: [CSRC Vice Chairman Liu Haoling: Foreign investors' willingness to allocate to China's quality assets continues to rise] On May 28, the 2026 Global Investor Conference hosted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was held in Shenzhen. CSRC Vice Chairman Liu Haoling stated in his address that China's capital market reforms integrating investment and financing had progressed steadily and continued to deliver results, overall market valuations were within a reasonable range, and foreign investors' willingness to allocate to China's quality assets continued to rise. In his address, Liu Haolin stated that China is a major contributor to and stabilizing anchor for global economic growth, and a fertile ground for foreign enterprises to invest and do business. Since the beginning of this year, foreign capital has been flowing steadily into China's stock market through various channels. As of now, various overseas investors hold over 4 trillion yuan in A-share tradable market capitalization, making them important participants in China's capital market. (Wallstreetcn) PBOC conducted 101.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with the operation rate at 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 100 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.25% to 99.48. Persistently high energy prices intensified market concerns about a resurgence in inflation. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee on Thursday further reinforced his warning: rising market expectations for AI's potential to boost productivity could push up inflation and force the US Fed and other central banks to raise interest rates. Goolsbee said: "The more hype there is about future productivity, the higher rates may need to go to prevent the economy from overheating. More importantly, facing supply shocks in the short term—whether from oil prices, supply chain disruptions, or other factors—makes the problem even worse." The above remarks further expanded on the views Goolsbee first publicly raised earlier this month. He questioned the notion that AI could suppress inflation and thereby create room for central banks to cut interest rates—a view championed by many officials in the Trump administration as well as new US Fed Chair Warsh. In the 1990s, as computers became more widely adopted, US productivity rose unexpectedly, driving rapid economic growth without triggering inflation. However, Goolsbee argued that if productivity gains are anticipated by the market, the situation would be different. Markets could trigger a spending boom in advance, pushing up prices before actual productivity gains materialize. US Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said he expected inflation to cool later this year as the effects of tariffs and rising energy costs fade, but he warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. In remarks prepared for delivery at a Bank of Japan-hosted conference in Tokyo on Thursday morning, Jefferson said he is watching for signs that rising energy costs from the Iran war are weighing on consumer spending. He also warned that he continued to see signs of weakness in the labour market. Jefferson reiterated his view that the central bank's current policy stance was well positioned to respond to any developments. Jefferson stated, "I am not prejudging the next meeting and look forward to engaging with my colleagues on the best policy to achieve our dual mandate goals." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: The Bank of Korea's six-month dot plot showed that among 21 dots, 7 were at 2.75%, 10 at 3%, 2 at 3.25%, and 2 at 2.5%. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Data: Data to be released today include the eurozone May industrial confidence index, eurozone May economic sentiment index, Canada Q1 current account, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23, US April core PCE price index YoY, US April personal spending MoM, US Q1 real GDP annualized QoQ revised, US April core PCE price index MoM, and US April durable goods orders MoM. In addition, attention should be paid to: the ECB publishing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivering a keynote speech at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland; 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivering a speech. Crude oil: As of 11:39, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 3.1% and Brent up 3.07%. US-Iran tensions escalated again, driving crude oil higher. US President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with negotiations with Iran, and the White House subsequently denied Iranian media reports of progress in peace talks, quickly dampening earlier market optimism about a ceasefire agreement. The US-Iran conflict entered its fourth month, with ceasefire prospects remaining uncertain. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump said at a cabinet meeting at the White House on the 27th that the US and Iran had not yet reached a deal and the US was "dissatisfied" with this, fully rejecting the potential mechanism for joint US-Iran-Oman management of the Strait of Hormuz. (Wallstreetcn) The American Petroleum Institute (API) released data showing that US crude oil and gasoline inventories both declined last week. US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 22 was -2.819 million barrels, versus expectations of -4.367 million barrels and a prior value of -9.11 million barrels. US API gasoline inventory for the week ending May 22 was -3.199 million barrels, versus expectations of -2.896 million barrels and a prior value of -5.795 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM News, May 27: Metals market: As of the midday close, most domestic base metals rose, while SHFE copper edged down. SHFE aluminum rose 0.8%. SHFE lead rose 0.33%, SHFE zinc fell 0.72%. SHFE tin rose 0.63%. SHFE nickel rose 1.91%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.52%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.96%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.09%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.47%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 2.17%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.19%, rebar fell 0.69%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.44%, and stainless steel rose 1.49%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.77%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:38, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.6%. LME aluminum rose 0.39%. LME lead rose 0.05%. LME zinc rose 0.4%. LME tin rose 1.24%. LME nickel rose 0.32%. Precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.08%, COMEX silver rose 0.63%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.05%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.73%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.15%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.98%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.77%, closing at 2,949 points. As of 11:38 on May 27, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Cargo and Fundamentals Alumina: SMM statistics show that the scale of alumina projects under construction and under planning in Guinea has exceeded... Macro Front China: [NBS: From January to April, profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 18.2%; non-ferrous metals sector profits surged 117.8%] NBS data showed that from January to April, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 2.44 trillion yuan, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April, the mining sector posted profits of 361.84 billion yuan, up 26.0% YoY; the manufacturing sector posted profits of 1.80 trillion yuan, up 20.4%; and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector posted profits of 272.01 billion yuan, down 1.9%. From January to April, profitability of major industries was as follows: non-ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing (up 1.2x YoY), computer, communications, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (up 1.1x), chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing (up 73.4%), coal mining and washing (up 21.0%), textile (up 11.2%), petroleum and natural gas extraction (up 8.1%), petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing (turned from loss to profit), general equipment manufacturing (down 0.6%), electricity and heat production and supply (down 2.5%), special equipment manufacturing (down 7.2%), electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (down 11.4%), agricultural and sideline food processing (down 11.8%), automobile manufacturing (down 16.8%), non-metallic minerals products (down 50.7%), and ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing (down 51.5%). [PBOC Conducts 177.6 Billion Yuan in Open Market Reverse Repo Operations with Net Injection of 127.6 Billion Yuan in a Single Day] The PBOC conducted 177.6 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. 50 billion yuan in reverse repos matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 99.1. According to Nikkei, Fed's Kashkari stated that the US Fed may implement a "series" of interest rate hikes in response to inflation concerns triggered by the Middle East situation. During the late-April FOMC meeting, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Kashkari and two other officials dissented against the decision to include language in the Fed's statement hinting at future monetary easing. In a written interview, Kashkari said: "I think the next rate adjustment could be an interest rate cut, or it could be a rate hike." He used this to express his differing views. Kashkari said the outcome would depend on inflation trends, which depend on whether the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon or remain effectively closed due to further damage to infrastructure in the region, the latter of which would exacerbate the global energy shortage. Kashkari said the concern was that long-term inflation expectations of enterprises and households "could become unanchored." He said the FOMC "may well need to respond forcefully," and rate hikes, or even a series of rate hikes, could be necessary measures. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 99.2%, with a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 88.6%, with an 11.3% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 0% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report noted that the resilience of the global economy is being tested by the Middle East conflict, while a glimmer of hope for the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has emerged. The US economy is likely to continue growing mildly but unevenly this year, the pace of the EU's weak recovery is being delayed, and Japan's private-sector demand is inevitably subject to disruptions from energy shortages. High oil prices are already pushing up global inflation, with headline inflation rates in Europe and the US likely to fluctuate at highs this year, while Japan's headline inflation rate may continue its mild performance. The US Fed may not cut interest rates at all this year, while potential rate hikes by the European and Japanese central banks are imminent, and the "unrestrained" fiscal stances of Japanese and European political circles could constitute a source of market risk this year. We maintain our view that US equities will outperform US Treasuries and the US dollar index will find support, while gold prices are expected to break out of their current range as tail risks to inflation dissipate. Other currencies: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, opting to continue observing the impact of the global energy shock on domestic consumption and medium-term inflation. The RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25%, in line with market expectations. The RBNZ's latest projections show a rising likelihood of at least two 25bp rate hikes before year-end. In its post-meeting statement, the RBNZ said: "Taken together, the OCR will likely need to be raised sooner and by more than projected in the February Monetary Policy Statement." "The pace of hikes will depend on the relative impact of persistent wage and pricing behavior versus weakening economic activity on medium-term inflation pressures." Following the statement, NZD/USD rose. (Jin10 Data) Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda Kazuo said vigilance is needed regarding the impact of surging oil prices on underlying inflation trends, but did not clearly signal how this factor would influence next month's policy meeting outcome. Ueda said on Wednesday: "Japan's experience shows that oil price shocks are never just oil price shocks; they actually test the entire inflation mechanism." Reviewing the impact of oil crises since the 1970s, he noted: "We are in fact experiencing the fifth oil price shock." "If a temporary shock alters wages, inflation expectations, and corporate pricing behavior, it may evolve into persistent inflation." Ueda did not directly signal the future policy path, but as his remarks reflected concerns over the impact of high oil prices, markets may further strengthen speculation about the prospect of a rate hike at the BoJ's June meeting. Overnight swap market pricing shows traders currently assign roughly a 75% probability to a 25bp rate hike by the BoJ next month. (Jin10 Data) Australia's April core inflation rate remained above the upper bound of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range, further reinforcing market expectations that the RBA will maintain its hawkish stance after consecutive rate hikes this year. Data on Wednesday showed the closely watched core inflation gauge—the annual trimmed mean inflation rate excluding volatile items—rose 3.4% YoY, in line with economists' expectations. The RBA targets keeping inflation near the midpoint of its 2%-3% target band. Interest rate swap markets currently price the probability of another rate hike in August at around 50%, down from 64% before the data release. Under the dual pressure of high borrowing costs and surging fuel prices driven by the Iran war, the Australian economy is beginning to show signs of weakness. The unemployment rate in April rose to a four-and-a-half-year high, while approximately one-third of enterprises reported declining revenue over the past four weeks, and half reported rising operating costs. The market widely expects that after raising rates at all three meetings earlier this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in June. Sue-Ellen Luke, head of price statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, said: "Automotive fuel prices currently remain 23.5% higher than before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. The impact of rising oil prices is also reflected in goods and services with higher transportation and logistics costs." (Jin10 Data) Data: Today will see the release of the RBNZ interest rate decision as of May 27, Switzerland's May ZEW Investor Confidence Index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 9, and the US May Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, among other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo delivering a speech at a monetary policy conference hosted by the BOJ; the RBNZ releasing its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; RBNZ Governor Breman holding a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: As of 11:38, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 2.03% and Brent down 1.75%. Oil prices fell in Asian early trading as traders weighed the prospects of a US-Iran deal. Front-month Brent crude declined. Despite a resurgence in hostilities, hopes remain for an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran signaled that the attacks would not derail negotiations, while US Secretary of State Rubio said it would take a few days to finalise a potential deal. Uncertainty remains high. Kieran Tomkins of Capital Economics noted that while crude oil options data suggest investors expect prices to pull back over the next three months, their conviction is unusually low. He said options indicate investors see a swift resumption of supply through the strait as the most likely outcome, but their implied expectations suggest a 37% probability that oil prices will exceed $100 per barrel in three months. (Zhitong Finance) On the evening of May 26 local time, the Public Relations Department of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy announced that over the past 24 hours, 25 vessels including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz with permission, under the coordination and security guarantee of the IRGC Navy. Meanwhile, the IRGC Navy stated that it is exercising "effective and authoritative" control over the Strait of Hormuz, and any act of aggression will be met with a severe response. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►