[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Holding Up Well Then Consolidating at Highs, Supply Strong and Demand Weak Pattern Unchanged] At the beginning of the week, boosted by restocking for rigid demand and news, magnesium ingot quotations edged up slightly. However, high inventory suppressed downstream purchases, and upward momentum was insufficient. FOB quotations at Tianjin port followed the rise. Summer break outside China combined with high ocean freight rates led to sluggish foreign trade transactions. Dolomite prices remained stable, with ample supply. Magnesium powder and magnesium alloys edged up slightly following magnesium ingot and then stabilized. Demand from die-casting was weak in the off-season, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remained unchanged. In the short term, magnesium prices will continue to move sideways.

Around July 20, 2026, import and export data for cobalt and lithium battery industry chain products in June were released in a concentrated manner. The data showed that China’s spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to about 72,000 mt of LCE; for lithium carbonate, China imported 25,861 mt in June, down 31% MoM and up 46% YoY. From January to June, China’s cumulative lithium carbonate imports totaled 179,000 mt, up 52% YoY on a cumulative basis...... SMM compiled the import and export situation of battery materials in H1, as follows: Upstream Lithium Concentrates In June 2026, China’s spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to about 72,000 mt of LCE. By source country: the effect of concentrated shipments at Australia’s fiscal year-end became evident, with June port arrivals exceeding 370,000 mt, up 12% MoM. Mali: port arrivals rose significantly MoM to 60,000 mt. South Africa and Nigeria maintained stable shipments, with port arrivals both staying above 110,000 mt. Among them, Nigeria saw an increase in the share of high-grade ore, with concentrates accounting for more than 65%. Zimbabwe was previously affected by transportation efficiency; June port arrivals were 42,000 mt, showing a MoM pullback. Based on SMM data screening, the overall LCE equivalent of ore arrivals in June was 72,000 mt. Notably, the share of lithium concentrates in total ore arrivals fell to 72% in the month, down MoM, mainly because most of the 65,000 mt of arrivals from Brazil were lithium raw ore fines from earlier deals, dragging down the overall share of concentrates. In June 2026, China’s total imports of lithium raw materials (spodumene + lithium sulfate), converted to LCE, approached 80,000 mt and stayed high, providing a solid raw material base for the continued climb in China’s lithium chemicals production. Spodumene: Import volumes continued to rise, with a notable contribution from the push for annual target at Australia’s fiscal year-end In June, China’s spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and up 33% YoY, equivalent to about 72,000 mt of LCE. The import scale remained on a high and rising trend for several consecutive months, reflecting that rigid demand from domestic lithium chemical plants for upstream ore remained strong. Source: China Customs, compiled by SMM From the grade structure perspective, based on SMM data screening, the share of lithium concentrates in total ore arrivals in June fell to 72%, showing a MoM decline. The main drag came from Brazil—June port arrivals from Brazil were 65,000 mt, most of which were lithium raw ore fines from earlier deals; the concentrated arrivals of such low-grade minerals directly pulled down the overall share of concentrates. Beyond spodumene, the import performance of another lithium raw material—lithium sulfate—also warrants attention. In June, China’s lithium sulfate imports reached 13,500 mt, up 12% MoM, equivalent to over 7,700 mt of LCE. By source, Chile continued to dominate the supply landscape with 13,400 mt, while imports from Zimbabwe quietly rose to the hundred-mt level. Although the absolute volume remains small for now, this marks the country’s first bulk shipment of lithium sulfate to China, signaling an early indicator of a potential normalization and ramp-up in its future supply. Summary: Raw material support was firm in June, but expectations of tighter available supply are rising for July. In aggregate terms, combined imports of spodumene and lithium sulfate in June approached 80,000 mt of LCE equivalent, supplemented by roughly over 30,000 mt of domestically produced lithium concentrates, bringing total domestic lithium raw material supply to over 110,000 mt of LCE. This provided ample and relatively stable raw material support for the high-level production of lithium chemicals in June. Beneath the relatively optimistic headline figures, however, a key variable stands out: most of the cargo arriving in June had its destination locked in through orders placed weeks or even months earlier, leaving only a low proportion of material entering traders’ freely available inventory. The persistence of this pre-locked structure means that as we move into July, the amount of available spot lithium ore on the market will remain tight. If the downstream pace of just-in-time procurement holds steady, the tightening of available supply will constrain lithium chemical plants’ flexibility in securing feedstocks to some extent, thus limiting the room for further production increases in July—an effect already visible in recent SMM weekly lithium carbonate production data. In terms of spot prices for spodumene concentrates (CIF China), SMM data showed they trended downward overall in June. As of June 30, the average spot price for spodumene concentrates (CIF China) was $2,260/mt, a drop of $328/mt from $2,588/mt at the start of the month, a decline of 12.67%. According to SMM, enterprises that externally purchase spodumene to produce lithium suffered deep spot profit losses in June, with losses widening over the month. The core reason was that while spodumene concentrate prices followed the pullback in lithium carbonate, the extent of the correction was limited. In June, the decline in spodumene concentrate prices lagged that of lithium chemicals, deepening losses in the processing segment. Externally Purchased Lepidolite In June, the immediate margins of lepidolite-based lithium extractors narrowed from May, though they remained in positive territory for the full month. The resumption of production at a leading mine in Jiangxi reinforced market expectations of future ore supply release, triggering a single-day 6.58% plunge in lithium carbonate futures. Coupled with the extreme “plunge-weak rebound-drop again” volatility in the lithium carbonate market during the fourth week of June, this further compressed margins for enterprises reliant on externally purchased ore. Lithium Carbonate Customs data shows that China imported 25,861 mt of lithium carbonate in June, down 31% MoM but up 46% YoY. Among the source countries, imports from Chile reached 16,037 mt (62% of the total), Argentina followed with 8,403 mt (32%), and Indonesia accounted for 500 mt (2%). For January-June, cumulative lithium carbonate imports hit 179,000 mt, a 52% YoY increase. In May, China exported 261 mt of lithium carbonate, up 30% MoM but down 39% YoY. Cumulative exports for January-June reached 2,348 mt, a 5.6% YoY decline. SMM spot price data indicated that lithium carbonate spot prices generally drifted lower in June. As of June 30, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to 156,500 yuan/mt, a drop of 22,500 yuan/mt from 179,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of June, translating to a decline of 12.57%. SMM noted that China’s spot price center for lithium carbonate consolidated lower in June. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, news of a Jiangxi mine license renewal continued to unsettle the market, while China’s May lithium carbonate imports hit a historical high, and GFEX warrants remained elevated at around 50,000 mt. On the demand side, growth expectations were already priced in by the market, leading to a price drift lower. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed weak willingness to sell spot orders, maintaining a stance of holding prices firm and holding back from selling; downstream material plants and battery cell manufacturers adopted a dip-buying strategy, purchasing stockpiles aggressively below the 160,000 yuan/mt level. As of July 23, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 3,500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, reaching 142,000-151,000 yuan/mt with a daily average of 146,500 yuan/mt. Lithium Hydroxide Customs data indicates that China imported 4,400 mt of lithium hydroxide in June 2026, a 12% MoM increase and a nearly 2x YoY surge. By source country, imports from South Korea accounted for 1,159 mt, making up 26% of the total, while imports from Chile came in second at 993 mt. Notably, imports from Indonesia remained persistently low at just 774 mt in June. On the export side, China's lithium hydroxide exports in June reached 6,018 mt, up 70% MoM, mainly driven by concentrated end-of-quarter shipments and a mild recovery in overseas demand. Of this, exports to South Korea stood at 5,032 mt and to Japan at 679 mt. Overall, exports significantly exceeded imports during the month, and China's lithium hydroxide trade temporarily returned to a net export position after a gap of several months. Battery Materials LiPF6 According to China Customs data, in June 2026, China's cumulative LiPF6 exports totaled approximately 1,104.4 mt, down about 26.4% MoM, while cumulative imports amounted to about 24.4 mt. On the export side, China's LiPF6 exports in June 2026 were roughly 1,104.4 mt, down about 26.4% MoM from May and down about 21.4% YoY. In detail, the main export destinations in June were South Korea, Poland, Malaysia, Japan, and others, with exports to Poland at 336.8 mt (down about 25.47% MoM), South Korea at 319.738 mt (down about 45.9% MoM), Malaysia at 113.211 mt (down about 28.03% MoM), the US at 157.601 mt (up about 103.62% MoM), and Japan at 115.56 mt (up about 5.2% MoM). Overall, overseas procurement volume for LiPF6 edged down slightly in June. Artificial Graphite In June 2026, China's artificial graphite imports stood at 1,002 mt, up 2.3% MoM and up 3.3% YoY. In terms of average import price, China's artificial graphite import price averaged 59,596 yuan/mt in June 2026, down 0.9% MoM and up 16.6% YoY. Data source: China Customs, SMM In June 2026, China's artificial graphite exports were 41,601 mt, down 16.9% MoM and down 18.7% YoY. As for average export price, China's artificial graphite export price averaged 9,080 yuan/mt in June 2026, up 17.5% MoM and up 13.9% YoY. Import volumes and prices fluctuated relatively mildly, with overall steady performance. Exports, however, showed a diverging pattern of "lower volumes, higher prices": the decline in export volumes was likely linked to a high base in May and adjustments in overseas phased procurement pace, while the rise in export prices was mainly driven by persistently high domestic costs. Notably, despite the drop in overall export volumes, shipments from the major export provinces for lithium battery-grade artificial graphite showed a recovery trend—one province saw its export volume surge by roughly 50% MoM, while another recorded a gain approaching 25% MoM. Flake Graphite In June 2026, China’s flake graphite imports were 4,147 mt, down 30% MoM and down 12% YoY. Source: China Customs, SMM In June 2026, China’s flake graphite exports were 5,089 mt, down 33% MoM and down 5% YoY. Both flake graphite imports and exports fell significantly MoM in June, mainly due to a high base effect from May and seasonal demand adjustments in and outside China, while the YoY declines remained mild. Phosphoric Acid According to China Customs data, China’s phosphoric acid exports showed a clear retreat after a rapid rise in Q2 2026. Exports surged to 40,200 mt in May before pulling back to 29,500 mt in June, down 26.5% MoM. However, they still posted positive YoY growth compared to June last year (up 3,500 mt), as sustained rigid demand from new energy sectors outside China offset the short-term pace-driven pullback. Shaped by full-year policy cycles and industry fundamentals, China’s phosphoric acid trade is now characterized by zero imports, pure exports, policy-induced volatility, and ongoing structural upgrades . Annual exports are influenced by both the agricultural input supply guarantee policy and the off-season and peak-season cycles in and outside China, resulting in a pattern of regular consolidation. ....... Based on the H1 pace and considering the current policy cycle, overseas demand rhythm, and domestic spot fundamentals, the phosphoric acid industry will remain within the window of phosphate fertiliser export controls in July–August H2 2026. Foreign sales of agricultural-grade crude phosphoric acid will be restricted, capping overall export volumes at a natural ceiling. Supported by off-season restocking demand from overseas food and energy storage enterprises, phosphoric acid exports are expected to modestly recover from the June low, moving back above the central level of 30,000 mt per month. This will partly cushion the pressure from domestic agricultural off-season inventory buildup and strengthen the market floor with external demand resilience. On the spot side, domestic agricultural off-season demand will be weak, but with raw material costs of sulfur and phosphate ore remaining high, small and medium-sized wet-process phosphoric acid plants will continue to suffer losses and run at low utilisation rates. Enterprises will generally control production to support prices, leaving the wet-process phosphoric acid market in a stagnant consolidation pattern—soft but with no room for a deep trend decline. From September to December, the industry’s fundamentals and foreign trade landscape will improve notably. The phosphate fertiliser export control policy officially expires on August 31. Together with concentrated Q4 restocking for overseas agricultural inputs, year-end capacity ramp-ups by domestic LFP enterprises, and staggered delivery of overseas lithium battery long-term contracts, phosphoric acid exports will enter the peak season of the year. Monthly export volumes are expected to exceed 40,000 mt and hit a new annual high, while the industry’s overall export volume and trade surplus will rise in tandem. Soaring demand from both domestic and international markets is expected to drive the industry towards an inflection point and an upward trend. Not only is demand for wet process phosphoric acid continuing to recover, but thermal process phosphoric acid will also benefit from concentrated stockpiling in the food and electronic fine chemical sectors, strengthening in tandem and ushering in a peak season where both wet and thermal processes boom. [SMM Analysis] In-Depth Review of Annual Phosphate Imports and Exports: Policy and Cyclical Drivers Reshaping Trade Structure and the Industry's New Landscape Phosphate Ore In H1 2026 (January-June), China's phosphate ore imports reached 998,200 mt, a YoY increase of 29.66%; exports were 133,900 mt, a YoY increase of 225.91%; net imports stood at 864,300 mt. Four Major Core Changes 1. Imports rebounded to high levels last seen in 2024 . H1 2026 imports of 998,200 mt grew 29.66% from 769,800 mt in H1 2025, recovering to the 986,600 mt level recorded in H1 2024. The monthly peak for the first half was 243,900 mt in January 2026, with secondary highs of 206,600 mt in April and 182,100 mt in March. The import side has significantly rebounded from the trough of H1 2025 (769,800 mt), confirming that a high-import norm has been established since 2024. 2. Exports tripled, hitting a near four-year high . H1 2026 exports of 133,900 mt surged 225.91% from 41,100 mt in H1 2025, marking the highest level since H1 2023 (191,300 mt). A Q2 volume surge structure formed with 50,900 mt in June, 32,200 mt in May, and 11,100 mt in April, which highly coincides with the event window of Egypt announcing a halt to signing new phosphate ore export contracts on May 13 (pivoting towards exports of higher value-added phosphate fertiliser). 3. Net imports remain high but narrowed . H1 2026 net imports of 864,300 mt were notably higher than both the 942,800 mt in H1 2024 (historical peak) and 728,700 mt in H1 2025, reflecting a persistent supply gap for domestic phosphate ore and a continued high level of import dependency. 4. The traditional H1 and H2 seasonal pattern has been broken. In previous years, H1 imports were typically lower than H2 imports (cumulative H2 imports from 2020 to 2025 totalled 2.7531 million mt, significantly higher than the cumulative H1 total). However, H1 2026 imports of 998,200 mt are already approaching the 949,900 mt of H2 2025 — the traditional pattern, where the peak season for winter stockpiling was deferred to Q3-Q4, has been broken, with the import pace becoming more year-round. ......... H2 Outlook: Imports: H1 imports have already reached 998,200 mt . In H2, driven by winter stockpiling procurement and LFP cathode material stockpiling (in preparation for the Q3-Q4 NEV peak season), H2 2026 imports are expected to be 1.1-1.3 million mt, bringing full-year imports to 2.1-2.3 million mt, a YoY increase of 15%-25%. This would set a new record high since 2023. Exports : June alone saw an acceleration to 50,900 mt, and exports are expected to reach 100,000-200,000 mt in July-September. With Q4 driven by overseas demand (India, Southeast Asia, Brazil) and a reshuffling of export competition among Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco, full-year exports are estimated at 200,000-300,000 mt, up 200%-300% YoY. Net Imports: Net imports in 2026 are forecast at 1.7-2 million mt, still at historically high levels, reflecting that the undersupply of domestic phosphate ore cannot be fundamentally resolved in the medium term, with dependency on overseas sources (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Peru, Algeria) continuing to rise. Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid China's Monthly Sulphur Imports Change (2025 H1 vs. 2026 H1) China's sulphur imports in H1 2026 exhibited a trend of "accelerating monthly contraction." Cumulative imports from January to June were approximately 2.26 million mt , down sharply by 57.7% from the 5.34 million mt in the same period of 2025, with average monthly imports plunging from around 800,000 mt in 2025 to roughly 380,000 mt. On a monthly trend, imports were sustained around 500,000 mt per month in Q1 (496,000/538,000/516,000 mt); beginning in April, a precipitous drop occurred, with April falling to 296,000 mt and May to 268,000 mt, while June touched 147,000 mt (down 85.1% YoY) —meaning June imports alone shrank to less than one-fifth of the 988,000 mt recorded in the same month of 2025. Historically, full-year 2025 imports totaled around 9.61 million mt , averaging about 800,000 mt per month and remaining stable, whereas the 147,000 mt in June 2026 marks a rare low in recent years. If geopolitical conflicts and Kazakhstan's export ban persist, H2 imports could face further pressure, with the full-year total expected to be only about 40% of 2025's volume. ....... Sulphur Imports: Volume Plunge and Source Realignment —H1 2026 imports were about 2.26 million mt, down 57.7% YoY (June down 85% YoY); the share accounted for by the four Middle Eastern countries was halved (from ~35% to ~20%), while South Korea, Oman, and Canada filled the gap (combined ~58%). Sulphuric Acid Exports: Ban-Induced Clearance —H1 2026 exports were around 780,000 mt, down 64% YoY; June exports were only about 980 mt, down 99.7% YoY , marking a precipitous exit from the global market; Indonesia became the top destination. Common logic: the dual effect of geopolitical conflicts & export controls , China is shifting from a global sulfur hub to self-preserving contraction. Cobalt Side Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Intermediate Products In June 2026, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products were approximately 10,961 mt in physical content, up 324% MoM and down 42% YoY, of which imports from DRC were approximately 10,815 mt in physical content, up 423% MoM and down 43% YoY. The average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in June 2026 was $16,352/mt in physical content, down 1.54% MoM. Of this month's intermediate product imports, approximately 7,561 mt in physical content entered Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces via Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area, accounting for 69% of total imports; Ordinary Trade accounted for about 2,849 mt in physical content, or 26%; Processing Trade with Imported Materials accounted for about 550 mt in physical content, or 5%. Unwrought Cobalt In June 2026, China's imports of unwrought cobalt stood at about 1,120 mt, up 66% MoM and up 105% YoY. By country, the top three sources of refined cobalt imports were Indonesia, Russia, and Madagascar, with imports of 476 mt, 293 mt, and 148 mt, respectively. In June, although China's refined cobalt price pulled back significantly and the import-export window remained completely closed, overseas traders still opted to ship refined cobalt to China due to weak overseas demand for refined cobalt, leading to a substantial increase in China's imports. The average import price of unwrought cobalt in June 2026 was $52,228/mt, down 4.27% MoM. In January-June 2026, cumulative imports reached 7,709 mt, up 118% YoY. Exports side, in June 2026, China's exports of unwrought cobalt were about 503 mt, up 36% MoM but down 46% YoY. By country, the top three export destinations were the US, Taiwan, China, and the Netherlands, with exports of 132 mt, 125 mt, and 66 mt, respectively. The average export price of unwrought cobalt in June 2026 was $59,579/mt, up 11.56% MoM. In January-June 2026, cumulative exports totaled 2,664 mt, down 76% YoY.

A delegation from Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) paid a visit to Xingfa Aluminium's Vietnan factory — Xingfa Vietnam, on July 20, 2026, and both sides engaged in-depth discussions covering the aluminum pricing mechanism in Vietnam, building international credibility, and coordinated industrial development. The delegation includes Logan Lu, SMM CEO, Kexin Lou, Director of Aluminum Fabrication, Lexi Chen, Key Account Manager for Overseas Information Sales, and CHIN KHAI YUEN, Senior Overseas Aluminum Analyst. Pushing for the Establishment of Globally Recognized Aluminum Price Benchmark in Vietnam During the visit, both sides analysed the current pricing landscape in Vietnam’s aluminum market. At present, Vietnam lacks internationally recognized aluminum price benchmark of its own. Foreign trades are mostly settled in US dollars based on LME plus MJP premiums, while domestic deals convert USD prices into Vietnamese Dong. Local players, including Chinese, Japanese, South Korean and Vietnamese enterprises, typically conclude contracts via LME + premium/discount pricing or fixed-price agreements before currency conversion. This fragmented pricing structure raises transaction costs and hinders the internationalisation of Vietnam’s aluminum sector. SMM noted that developing a widely accepted Vietnam aluminum pricing benchmark is critical to boosting pricing transparency and facilitating cross-border trade, and ranks high on SMM’s work agenda. To this end, SMM will conduct extensive surveys on major aluminum manufacturers in Vietnam, including Xingfa. SMM will officially launch the SMM Vietnam Aluminum Prices alongside a detailed methodology briefing at the SMM AICE 2026 Southeast Asia (Vietnam) Aluminum Conference in Ho Chi Minh City on 19–20 November . The two parties also exchanged views on primary aluminum supply and demand across Southeast Asia and the impacts of CBAM on the aluminum industry. In particular, CBAM and international carbon certification have emerged as core concerns for global aluminum participants. SMM will host a dedicated session at the AICE 2026 Southeast Asia (Vietnam) Aluminum Conference and invite international experts to share their insights. Deepening Southeast Asian Footprint: SMM Accelerates Market Rollout in Vietnam Since the beginning of this year, SMM has accelerated the establishment of its price service system in the Southeast Asian market. As of July 3, 2026, SMM has added a series of Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing fee price points and CIF Southeast Asia premium price points, with the Vietnam 6063 (non-homogenized) aluminum billet processing fees and price points already officially launched. In addition, the Vietnam Metal Recycling Forum (VMRF) visited SMM's headquarters in Shanghai on July 10, where the two parties reached multiple cooperation agreements on recycled metals industry chain services. Through localized collaboration and international resource integration, SMM is providing more accurate and authoritative data support for the aluminum industry chain in Vietnam and Southeast Asia. During this visit to Xingfa, the two parties reached multiple consensuses on aluminum price data collection, marketing promotion, and industry event organization. SMM stated that it will invite more international participants—including representatives from the Middle East, Indonesia, Malaysia, RUSAL, and Australian aluminum smelters—to jointly participate in the development of Vietnam aluminum pricing, promoting regional market integration. This survey has further deepened the strategic cooperation between SMM and Xingfa Aluminium and has also injected new momentum into the standardization and internationalization of Vietnam's aluminum pricing system. About Xingfa Aluminium Founded in 1984, Guangdong Xingfa Aluminium Co., Ltd. is a leading large-scale enterprise specialising in aluminum extrusion products in China. In 2011, Guangxin Holdings Group acquired a stake in Xingfa Aluminium, pioneering mixed ownership between state-owned and private capital within China’s aluminum extrusion sector and ushering in a new phase of steady expansion. Xingfa now operates nine production bases. In China, seven modern facilities are located in Sanshui and Nanhai (Foshan), Foshan Precision Manufacturing, Yichun (Jiangxi), Chengdu (Sichuan), Qinyang (Henan) and Huzhou (Zhejiang). Its global production network covers Australia and Vietnam, with growing scale advantages. Xingfa focuses on R&D, production and sales of aluminum extrusions across building and industrial segments. Its construction aluminum extrusions are widely used in high-end architectural curtain walls and system windows. While consolidating its core business, the company has expanded vigorously into industrial aluminum products, developing high-performance items such as new energy vehicle battery trays, crash beams and bus body components. Its products serve diverse sectors including rail transit, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics and electronics. Xingfa is further extending advanced aluminum processing technology into emerging areas such as energy storage and computing infrastructure. In recent years, Xingfa Aluminum has adhered to the principle that manufacturing is the foundation, fully leveraging its leading and driving role as the “chain leader” enterprise in Guangdong’s 100-billion-level high-end aluminum extrusion industry chain. Focusing on breakthroughs in key core technologies, it has promoted the industry chain and value chain towards the mid-to-high end. The company has successively received numerous honors, including the National Manufacturing Single Champion Enterprise, National Intellectual Property Demonstration Enterprise, National Technological Innovation Demonstration Enterprise, National Enterprise Technology Center, and National Green Factory. In 2025, Xingfa Aluminium ranked 475th in the Top 500 Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises, 147th in the Top 500 Guangdong Enterprises, and 32nd in the Top 500 Guangdong Manufacturing Enterprises. Join the Conversation at SMM AICE 2026

In H1 this year, new special bonds worth 2.07 trillion yuan were issued, with the issuance progress at about 47%. The funds were mainly used for key areas such as municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transport infrastructure, urban renewal, and social programs, effectively meeting the funding needs of major projects in key areas. Special bonds used as project capital exceeded 170 billion yuan, better leveraging the role of government investment to produce a multiplier effect.

On July 21, the Henan Provincial Government Information Office held a press conference on further consolidating and expanding the steady and positive economic momentum of Henan Province in the second half of 2026. Song Yuzhe, Member of the Party Leadership Group and Deputy Director of the Henan Provincial Department of Commerce, introduced that Henan will continue to roll out the consumer goods trade-in program in the second half of the year. Individual consumers engaging in vehicle scrappage renewal and vehicle trade-in renewal will receive subsidies capped at RMB 20,000 and RMB 15,000 respectively on a proportional basis. Purchasers of six categories of home appliances within the subsidy scope, namely refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers and water heaters, can claim subsidies of up to RMB 1,500. Subsidies of a maximum RMB 500 are available for four types of smart digital products including mobile phones, tablets, smart watches and bracelets, and smart glasses. It is expected that more than ten million consumers will benefit from the policy.

In June, total exports of copper wire rod (HS codes 74081100 and 74081900) increased both YoY and MoM. The specific data are as follows: According to customs statistics, China's total exports of copper wire rod were 32,600 mt, up 7.44% MoM and up 96.1% YoY. Exports of copper cathode wire rod with a cross-section size above 6 mm totaled 23,000 mt, up 17.47% MoM and up 134.24% YoY. Monthly exports of other copper cathode wire rod stood at 9,600 mt, down 10.84% MoM but up 41.01% YoY. In June 2026, exports of copper wire rod (HS codes 74081100 and 74081900) rebounded significantly, mainly driven by the continued release of demand from overseas power infrastructure construction and new energy projects, coupled with the accelerated pace of scheduled production and delivery by domestic enterprises and the concentrated execution of long-term contracts, which jointly boosted exports in the month. In terms of trade mode, China's copper wire rod exports in June 2026 remained dominated by processing trade. Specifically, processing trade with imported materials accounted for 54.50% and processing trade with supplied materials for 39.83%, together totaling 94.33%; in addition, Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area exports represented 2.96% and Ordinary Trade 2.57%. By country, in June 2026, China's top five copper wire rod export markets were Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, together accounting for over 70% of total exports. Among them, Saudi Arabia, affected by PV, power grid, and other infrastructure projects entering a concentrated construction and stockpiling phase, saw its local copper rod capacity struggle to meet demand. Compounded by the concentrated execution of long-term contracts, import demand was significantly released, driving China's copper rod exports to Saudi Arabia up 87.03% MoM and making it the largest export market. In contrast, affected by factors such as demand being overdrawn by earlier concentrated procurement, China's copper rod exports to Thailand fell 48.25% MoM in June, with its ranking pulling back to fourth place. In summary, China's copper rod exports performed well in June 2026, with overseas demand maintaining relatively high momentum and overall demand remaining stable. Meanwhile, domestic processing enterprises actively took on export orders, and downstream enterprises accelerated their long-term contract procurement, all of which jointly drove a MoM increase in copper rod exports. Since the start of July, as foreign trade gradually entered the off-season and imported copper costs continued to rise, enterprises raised their processing fee quotes for overseas orders, and downstream purchase willingness weakened. Copper wire rod exports are expected to pull back slightly in July.

In June, China's total magnesium product exports reached 39,400 mt, up 4.8% MoM and 10.9% YoY. Of this, magnesium ingot exports were 22,700 mt, down 5.5% MoM, mainly dragged down by the traditional off-season demand in and outside China. In contrast, magnesium powder and magnesium alloy exports performed strongly, up 21.2% and 33.2% MoM respectively, driven by periodic restocking, downstream stockpiling in advance, and the rapid development of sectors such as lightweight vehicles.

According to data from China Customs, China's phosphoric acid exports showed a notable retreat after a rapid rise in Q2 2026, with exports surging to 40,200 mt in May before pulling back to 29,500 mt in June, down 26.5% MoM but still up YoY from June last year (up 3,500 mt). Resilient overseas demand from the new energy sector continued to expand, offsetting the short-term, pace-related pullback. Based on the policy pace for the full year and industry fundamentals, China's phosphoric acid trade is now exhibiting distinct characteristics of zero imports, pure exports, strong policy-driven fluctuations, and ongoing structural upgrades . Annual exports are impacted by both the policy to ensure agricultural material supply and the seasonal cycles in and outside China, resulting in an overall pattern of consolidating in regular cycles. 1. Significant Monthly Fluctuations in China's Phosphoric Acid Exports, Driven by Intertwined Policy and Seasonal Factors According to SMM statistics, from October 2023 to June 2026, China's phosphoric acid exports displayed clear seasonal fluctuation patterns, with monthly export volumes consolidating dramatically between 15,000 mt and 48,300 mt, while imports remained near zero over the long term, indicating the strong self-sufficiency of China's phosphoric acid industry. According to the SMM database, China's phosphoric acid exports follow a complete annual pace of " a dip during Chinese New Year, a spring rebound, a summer adjustment, and an autumn surge ." Each year, during January-February, the Chinese New Year holiday weighs on enterprise operations and logistics, causing export volumes to pull back. From March to June, as the pressure to ensure supply during the spring plowing season eases and the market resumes operations in an orderly fashion, exports steadily rebound. July-August marks a period of adjustment, where exports pull back slightly into a mild range for the year, influenced by ongoing controls on phosphate fertiliser exports and weaker downstream operations during the rainy season in Southeast Asia. From September to December, the market fully enters the prime window for annual exports, with continued volume growth and repeated new annual highs. Exports hit 48,300 mt in November 2025, a peak within the statistical period. This was mainly due to concentrated overseas stockpiling ahead of Christmas and New Year holidays, the traditional peak season for external demand in November, the bottoming out and rebound of China's phosphoric acid prices from late October 2025, and a price spread advantage between Chinese and overseas markets that stimulated greater purchasing activity overseas, all driving up monthly export volumes. This cyclical fluctuation is driven by a combination of policies and supply-demand factors in and outside China. To meet domestic agricultural supply requirements during the spring plowing and autumn fertiliser peak seasons, a special control on phosphate fertiliser exports is implemented from March 14 to August 31 each year. During this period, crude agricultural-grade phosphoric acid is banned for export, with only battery-grade and high-purity food-grade phosphoric acid allowed for compliant export, naturally capping total exports for H1. After controls are lifted on August 31, export potential for H2 significantly opens up, creating a fixed policy cycle of " restricted in H1, volume release in H2 ." This also resonates effectively with the rhythm of international market demand. The agricultural fertiliser demand cycle in Southeast Asia and the soybean planting season in South America are highly aligned with the window for China's rising phosphoric acid exports. Coupled with factors such as optimized efficiency in export statutory inspections and a widening price spread between Chinese and overseas markets after May 2025, this has further supported the continued rise in H2 exports in recent years. 2. Structural Upgrades: Continuous Optimization of Export Product Mix, New Energy High-End Trend Reshapes Trade Landscape China's phosphoric acid export structure is undergoing continuous upgrades. The share of traditional crude agricultural-grade phosphoric acid exports has been declining year by year, while battery-grade purified phosphoric acid and high-end food-grade phosphoric acid have already become the mainstay of exports. The overall export landscape is gradually shifting from "low-end agricultural material exports" to "high-end new energy raw material exports." Especially during the annual export control period, high-purity phosphoric acid props up the industry's foreign trade fundamentals and serves as the core support for trade resilience. Behind this structural change is, on one hand, the continuous expansion of capacity for purified phosphoric acid and iron phosphate, steadily improving the supply capacity of high-end products. On the other hand, the gradual expansion of the overseas lithium battery and energy storage industries has driven a steady increase in rigid demand for high-end phosphoric acid. Coupled with the guidance of routine controls on agricultural material exports, industry capacity and trade resources continue to tilt towards high-value-added, high-end products, ultimately driving a comprehensive upgrade of the phosphoric acid export trade system. From the perspective of global export markets, Asia has always been the core base for China's phosphoric acid exports, with high market concentration, and top Southeast Asian countries have accounted for a major share of export volumes for many years. According to 2025 export data by destination, exports to Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Indonesia rank among the top globally. Leveraging the region's intensive agricultural cultivation, huge consumer demand from its large population, and geographical trade proximity, these countries continue to purchase large quantities of conventional agricultural- and industrial-grade phosphoric acid from China, firmly underpinning the overall export base. Exports to East Asian markets such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, China, are smaller in scale, mainly driven by industrial and food processing demand, with import unit prices generally at a high level. From 2023 to 2025, phosphoric acid imports from the Latin American market, represented by Brazil, increased significantly, and demand from multiple African countries expanded simultaneously. The expansion of large-scale agricultural development overseas and the establishment of local basic chemical facilities drove growth in raw material rigid demand, making these regions a highly promising emerging growth pole for China's phosphoric acid exports. From a pricing perspective, price spread segmentation by country is very pronounced: the average import prices for Singapore and South Korea are significantly higher than those for agricultural, rigid-demand markets, confirming the premium advantage of high-end product exports. Agricultural powerhouses like Thailand and Indonesia primarily purchase basic-grade products, with export unit prices at the industry's mid-level. Overall, a tiered export landscape has formed: " Southeast Asia provides volume support with massive rigid demand, Latin America and Africa offer continuous incremental growth, and Europe, the US, and East Asia deliver high premiums with high-end products ." 3. Outlook for 2026 Import/Export Trends and the Full Picture for the Phosphoric Acid Industry Based on the H1 pace and considering the current policy cycle, overseas demand rhythm, and domestic spot fundamentals, the phosphoric acid industry will still be within the phosphate fertiliser export control window in July-August H2 2026. Crude agricultural-grade phosphoric acid exports will be restricted, creating a natural ceiling on total export volumes. Supported by the release of off-season restocking demand from overseas food and energy storage enterprises, phosphoric acid exports are expected to slightly recover from the June low, return to above the central level of 30,000 mt/month, and slightly offset the pressure from domestic agricultural off-season inventory buildup, solidifying the market floor with export resilience. In the corresponding spot market, domestic demand will be weak during the traditional agricultural off-season, but high raw material costs (sulfur, phosphate ore) and sustained losses at small and medium-sized wet process plants, leading to low operating rates and widespread output controls to support prices, will keep the wet process phosphoric acid market in a stalemate and consolidation pattern, weak but with no room for a deep, trend-driven decline. From September to December, industry fundamentals and the foreign trade landscape are expected to significantly improve. The phosphate fertiliser export control policy officially expires on August 31. This, coupled with concentrated overseas agricultural material restocking in Q4, year-end capacity ramp-up at domestic LFP enterprises, and the concentrated delivery of long-term overseas lithium battery orders, will drive phosphoric acid exports into their peak period for the year. Monthly export volumes are expected to exceed 40,000 mt, hitting a new annual high, with the industry's overall export volume and trade surplus rising in tandem. This two-way volume release in domestic and external demand is expected to drive the industry into an upward inflection point. Not only will wet process phosphoric acid demand continue to recover, but thermal process phosphoric acid will also benefit from concentrated stockpiling in the food and electronic fine chemicals sectors and strengthen simultaneously, ushering in a peak season where both wet and thermal process markets thrive. Over the medium and long term, the trend towards high-end products in China's phosphoric acid exports will become the norm. The export share of high-purity purified phosphoric acid will continue to rise, becoming the core source of growth for the industry's exports. Agricultural-grade phosphoric acid will fluctuate seasonally along with the annual policy cycle, forming a stable trade landscape where " high-end rigid demand stabilizes the base, while agricultural supplies provide elasticity through cycles ," with the monthly export base firmly anchored at around 30,000 mt. The industry's fundamentals will also sustain this structural trend. On the supply side, rigid raw material costs, insufficient plant operating flexibility, and routine policy controls will keep industry supply tightening. On the demand side, steady growth in rigid export demand for high-end new energy applications and agricultural demand supporting the base will enable the phosphoric acid industry to officially enter a new development cycle of low volatility, strong resilience, and high premiums. The overall market will be more likely to rise than fall, and structural opportunities will become the market mainstream.

[SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash] Overall, China's copper rod exports performed well in June 2026. Demand outside China remained buoyant, and domestic processing enterprises accelerated deliveries of export orders, driving exports higher MoM. Looking ahead to July, foreign trade enters the traditional off-season. Coupled with rising raw material costs pushing up processing quotes, purchase willingness outside China is cooling. Copper wire rod exports are expected to pull back slightly in July.

China imported about 1,120 tons of unwrought cobalt in June 2026, rising 66% month-on-month and 105% year-on-year. By source country for electrolytic cobalt imports in June, the top three suppliers were Indonesia, Russia and Madagascar, with import volumes of 476 tons, 293 tons and 148 tons respectively. Despite a sharp drop in domestic electrolytic cobalt prices in June and a fully closed import-export arbitrage window, weak overseas demand for electrolytic cobalt prompted some foreign traders to ship material to China, driving a notable jump in import volumes. The average import price of unwrought cobalt hit USD 52,228 per ton in June 2026, down 4.27% month-on-month. Cumulative imports from January to June 2026 totalled 7,709 tons, climbing 118% year-on-year.