After a strong start, the price of gold slipped twice to around $5,060 during this trading week. Now, it appears that gold prices might manage to stay just above $5,100 heading into the weekend, continuing the persistent sideways movement of the past five weeks.

[SMM Aluminum Flash] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in February 2026, the nationwide consumer price index rose 1.3% YoY. Of this, urban areas rose 1.4% and rural areas rose 0.9%; food prices rose 1.7% and non-food prices rose 1.3%; consumer goods prices rose 1.1% and service prices rose 1.6%. On average in January–February, the nationwide consumer price index rose 0.8% from the same period a year earlier. In February, the nationwide consumer price index rose 1.0% MoM. Of this, urban areas rose 1.0% and rural areas rose 0.7%; food prices rose 1.9% and non-food prices rose 0.8%; consumer goods prices rose 0.8% and service prices rose 1.1%.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in January 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% YoY. Specifically, urban areas saw a 0.2% rise, while rural areas increased by 0.1%; food prices declined by 0.7%, whereas non-food prices rose by 0.4%; prices for consumer goods went up by 0.3%, and prices for services increased by 0.1%.

SMM News on June 27: Metal Market: As of the midday close, nearly all domestic base metals futures rose, with SHFE copper up 1.41%, SHFE nickel up 0.73%, SHFE aluminum up 0.83%, SHFE zinc up 1.53%, SHFE tin up 0.76%, and SHFE lead down 0.26%. Additionally, main aluminum casting futures rose 0.38%, main alumina futures climbed 1.06%, lithium carbonate jumped 2.48%, silicon metal rose 0.32%, and polysilicon gained 0.27%. The ferrous metals series mostly rose, with iron ore up 1.85%, rebar up 0.78%, HRC up 0.78%, while stainless steel fell 0.16%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal surged 3.16%, and coke rose 1.77%. Overseas metals were mostly lower as of 11:39, with LME copper down 0.1%, LME nickel down 0.22%, LME zinc unchanged at $2,768/mt, LME tin down 0.44%, LME lead down 0.25%, and LME aluminum down 0.14%. Precious metals saw COMEX gold up 0.28% and COMEX silver up 0.61% as of 11:39; domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.56% and SHFE silver climbed 1.65%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures contract rose 0.87% to 1,779.2 points. Partial futures market data as of 11:39 on June 27: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on June 27 Spot & Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month contract ranged from 40 yuan/mt to 150 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 95 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to 0 yuan/mt, averaging a 10 yuan/mt discount, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous session. The average #1 copper cathode price in Guangdong was 80,070 yuan/mt, up 1,205 yuan/mt, while SX-EW copper averaged 79,965 yuan/mt, up 1,195 yuan/mt. Spot Market: Guangdong inventories declined for the third consecutive day due to limited arrivals and increased outflows. The market is already trading cargoes with next month's invoices, with minimal impact from mid-year settlements... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [NBS: Jan-May Industrial Profits Down 1.1% YoY] NBS data shows profits at China's major industrial enterprises (annual sales ≥20 million yuan) declined 1.1% YoY in January-May 2025. State-owned holding enterprises reported 870.95 billion yuan in profits, down 7.4% YoY; joint-stock enterprises earned 2.01707 trillion yuan, down 1.5% YoY; foreign-funded, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan-invested enterprises achieved 685.68 billion yuan, up 0.3% YoY; and private enterprises secured 759.25 billion yuan, up 3.4% YoY. Yu Weining, a statistician from the Department of Industry of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises from January to May 2025: During the January-May period, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 2.72 trillion yuan, representing a year-over-year (YoY) decline. The performance presented the following characteristics: multiple factors contributed to the profit decline of industrial enterprises. Gross profits and operating revenues of industrial enterprises maintained growth. The equipment manufacturing sector played a stabilizing role. Breakthroughs in aerospace and marine sectors demonstrated the vitality of high-quality industrial development. The program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins continued to yield results. Profits of private and foreign-funded enterprises maintained growth. In the next phase, it is essential to thoroughly implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, implement more proactive macro policies, strengthen the domestic market, enhance innovation-driven development, steadily advance high-quality industrial development, and lay a solid foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprises' profitability. 》Click for details [China's Logistics Market Size Ranks First Globally for 9 Consecutive Years, Exceeding 360 Trillion Yuan for First Time] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released the "China Logistics and Supply Chain Development Report (2024-2025)" today (June 27). According to the report, China's logistics market size has ranked first globally for nine consecutive years, with modern logistics further strengthening its support for the national economy. The report indicates that in 2024, China's total social logistics volume exceeded 360 trillion yuan for the first time, and the annual total revenue of the logistics industry reached 13.8 trillion yuan. By the end of 2024, the number of A-grade logistics enterprises in China surpassed 10,000 for the first time, including over 500 5A-grade enterprises representing the highest domestic standard. The industry is generally transitioning from "logistics" to "supply chain" development. A preliminary national logistics node network has taken shape. A survey of national logistics parks shows that the number of large-scale logistics parks reached 2,769. The People's Bank of China conducted 525.9 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous operations. With 161.2 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today, the operation resulted in a net injection of 364.7 billion yuan. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1620 yuan per US dollar on June 27. US Dollar Update: As of 11:39, the US dollar index fell 0.03% to 97.26. US data showed greater-than-estimated economic contraction in Q1 due to weak consumer spending and tariff-related disruptions. While initial jobless claims declined last week, dwindling job opportunities and corporate reluctance to hire amid economic uncertainty raised risks of a June unemployment rate increase. Markets await Friday's release of US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for further insights into the US Fed's monetary policy outlook. Other currency updates: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the Labour government's payroll tax is causing UK job losses, declining worker incomes, and rising food prices. He cautioned that inflation risks remain "two-sided." Speaking at the British Chambers of Commerce annual conference in London, Bailey stated he is "starting to hear more evidence of adjustments through pay and employment" following the £26 billion ($36 billion) employer National Insurance contribution increase that took effect in April. (Hexun Finance) Data releases: Today's releases include US May personal spending month-over-month, US May core PCE price index year-over-year, US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment final reading, Eurozone June industrial confidence index, Eurozone June economic confidence index, Eurozone June consumer confidence final reading, Japan June Tokyo CPI year-over-year, Japan May unemployment rate, and Canada April seasonally adjusted GDP year-over-year. Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver remarks, while 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, along with Fed Governor Lisa Cook, will participate in the "Fed Listens" event. Crude oil markets: Both oil futures rose slightly, with WTI crude up 0.48% and Brent crude up 0.46% as of 11:39. US summer driving season is boosting fuel demand. However, oil prices are expected to post weekly losses as the Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement holds, easing concerns about Middle East supply risks. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories fell last week amid increased refining activity and demand. EIA data showed crude stocks declined by 5.8 million barrels to 415.1 million barrels in the week ending June 20, exceeding analyst expectations of a 797,000-barrel draw. Iran's Nour News agency reported Thursday that a damaged facility at Phase 14 of the South Pars refinery in Iran's Bushehr province - previously targeted by Israeli strikes - has resumed operations, continuing to alleviate supply concerns. (Webstock Inc.) Spot market overview: ► Inventories decline for 3rd week as suppliers refuse to budge on prices, but downstream buyers resist high prices [SMM South China Copper Spot] ► Rising copper prices suppress consumption, with market demand outlook remaining pessimistic [SMM North China Copper Spot] ► Shanghai zinc: Futures market continues to strengthen while premiums drop significantly [SMM Midday Review] ► [SMM Analysis] Strong fundamentals expected to support further iron ore price gains next week Other metal spot market updates coming soon - please refresh for latest insights

A day after US CPI inflation for May came in below expectations across the board, the overall increase in the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for May, released on Thursday, remained mild, suggesting that tariffs have not yet imposed higher inflationary pressure on consumers and further boosting expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September. According to a report issued by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US PPI year-over-year (YoY) rate for May was recorded at 2.6%, in line with market expectations of 2.6%; the US PPI month-over-month (MoM) rate for May was recorded at 0.1%, below the market expectation of 0.2%. Excluding the more volatile food and energy categories, the core PPI for May rose 3.0% YoY, the lowest level since August 2024 and below the expected 3.1%; it increased 0.1% MoM, below the expected 0.3%. The PPI measures inflation from the producer's perspective, reflecting the price conditions of goods purchased during the production process. Changes in the PPI can predict future price movements, making this indicator highly valued by the market. Data showed that wholesale energy prices remained largely unchanged, although gasoline prices rose 1.6% MoM. After a 0.9% decline in April, wholesale food prices rose 0.1% MoM in May. The highly watched price of eggs increased by 1.4%. Since taking office earlier this year, Trump has imposed a baseline tariff of 10% on all trading partners and varying tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles. US importers will pay these taxes and, where possible, pass them on to consumers through price increases. Although the current impact of higher tariffs on the US public is not yet significant, economists point out that price pressures may intensify in the second half of the year as companies attempt to avoid further weakening of profit margins. Stephen Brown, an analyst at Capital Economics, noted that wholesale prices can provide an initial insight into the direction of consumer inflation, as some of its components are used to calculate the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the PCE data. Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote, "Today's data show that the Fed has no reason to discuss raising interest rates. In fact, if Trump's tariff policies had not been implemented, the Fed might even consider cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy." Meanwhile, another set of data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7, seasonally adjusted, remained steady at 248,000, compared with market expectations of 240,000, the highest level since last October. The number of continuing jobless claims jumped to 1.951 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating that it is becoming increasingly difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of an interest rate cut in September stood at 80%, up from 70% the previous day.

"Cut interest rates by 100 basis points!" Trump speaks out again On the evening of June 11, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that the latest US CPI data showed positive results, and he called on the US Fed to cut interest rates by 1 percentage point (100 basis points). US Vice President Vance stated that the US Fed's refusal to cut interest rates was a dereliction of duty in monetary policy. Data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the full impact of Trump's across-the-board tariff hikes had not yet fully materialized, with US CPI inflation in May falling short of expectations across the board. The data indicated that the US unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May was 2.4%, lower than the market expectation of 2.5%; the seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate for May was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0.2%. Excluding food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 2.8% YoY, remaining at the lowest level since March 2021, with an expected value of 2.9% and a previous value of 2.8%; the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate for the US in May was 0.1%, with an expected value of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.2%. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the continued weakness in energy and service prices offset the impact of price increases in other goods, while some key items originally expected to rise due to tariffs, particularly car and clothing prices, actually saw price decreases. The data showed that energy prices fell by 1% in the month, with gasoline prices dropping by 2.6%, and prices for new and used cars falling by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. Food prices rose by 0.3%, and housing prices also increased by 0.3%, while clothing prices unexpectedly fell by 0.4%, indicating that the cost increases brought about by tariffs had not yet been passed on to consumers. Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," commented that the decline in car and clothing prices led to a lower-than-expected reading for the core CPI in May. Some forecasters had believed that these two items would show the early impact of tariffs in May. After the data release, spot gold prices continued to rise, breaking through $3,360 per ounce. The three major US stock index futures surged briefly but then fell. By the close, the S&P 500 index closed down 16.57 points, or 0.27%, at 6,022.24 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.10 points, or 0.00%, at 42,865.77 points. The Nasdaq closed down 99.11 points, or 0.50%, at 19,615.88 points. The Nasdaq 100 index closed down 81.12 points, or 0.37%, at 21,860.80 points. Trump says "confidence is waning" in reaching a nuclear deal; international oil prices surge According to AFP, both the US and Iran made their latest statements on the US-Iran nuclear negotiations on June 11. US President Trump stated in an interview aired on the same day that his "confidence has waned" in reaching a nuclear deal with Iran. Meanwhile, Iran said on June 11 that if negotiations fail and a conflict breaks out between the US and Iran, it will target US military bases in the Middle East. Upon the news, the crude oil market reacted swiftly. WTI crude oil futures for July delivery closed up $3.17/bbl, a 4.88% increase, at $68.15/bbl. Brent crude oil futures for August delivery closed up $2.90/bbl, a 4.33% increase, at $69.77/bbl. What is the outlook for the cast aluminum alloy futures market? Yesterday, the most-traded AD2511 cast aluminum alloy futures contract closed at 19,400 yuan/mt, up 0.91%. Regarding the current operational logic of the cast aluminum alloy market, Xiao Yufei, head of the Nonferrous Metals Research Team at Nanhua Futures, believes that the supply surplus in the cast aluminum alloy industry will persist. The planned new capacity for domestic aluminum alloy ingots in 2024-2025 is 1.145 million mt/year. However, due to various constraints, the actual capacity that has come online is only 260,000 mt/year. It is expected that in 2025, the cast aluminum alloy industry will continue to see capacity growth but with slower commissioning. According to Xiao Yufei, the downstream consumption of cast aluminum alloy mainly flows into sectors such as transportation, machinery manufacturing, home appliances, and hardware. Among them, transportation vehicles, including cars, motorcycles, and EVs, account for over 70% of downstream demand. Therefore, the demand for cast aluminum alloy primarily depends on the performance of the automotive market. The automotive industry has generally performed well this year, with production and sales showing steady growth compared to the same period last year. However, considering that the H2 is approaching the off-season, the growth rate of cast aluminum alloy demand may slow down. In addition, aluminum scrap inventory is tight, and raw material procurement is difficult. The inability to restock in a timely manner has led to a continuous decline in the raw material inventory of secondary aluminum alloy enterprises. "Finished product inventories are at a relatively high level. Given the current loose supply situation, we believe that the inventory buildup trend of secondary aluminum alloy will persist for some time. Considering the high correlation between aluminum alloy prices and SHFE aluminum prices, spot and futures prices are more inclined towards a backwardation structure," Xiao Yufei said. Fu Ying, a nonferrous metals analyst at the Zheshang Futures Research Center, believes that the current cast aluminum alloy market is in a phase of weak supply and demand. The automotive market, a major end-use application for cast aluminum alloy, is currently in an off-season for production. Under the "produce based on sales" model of alloy enterprises, their operating rates will also decline accordingly. Meanwhile, the trend of weakening demand will become more pronounced, with both social inventory and raw material inventory showing continuous accumulation. Therefore, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate around production costs. The first listed futures contract for cast aluminum alloy was AD2511, with a delivery month of November. According to Chen Xinyi, the head of the Non-Ferrous Metals and New Energy Team at Wuchan Zhongda Futures, the aluminum scrap recycling system is relatively "informal," which leads to a decrease in aluminum scrap recycling volume during holidays. Typically, aluminum scrap supply is relatively tight in Q4, and its prices hold up well compared to primary aluminum. From a demand perspective, ADC12 demand exhibits significant seasonal characteristics, with peak seasons generally occurring from September to January of the following year, and November being a peak consumption month. Therefore, the inter-month price spreads for the AD2511, AD2512, and AD2601 contracts are currently in a contango state. "Before the listing of cast aluminum alloy futures, spot market reference prices were mostly anchored to the Baotai price," Chen Xinyi said. Currently, the Baotai quote for ADC12 is 19,400 yuan/mt. Considering that some registered brands are priced at a discount to the Baotai price and the slim profit margins of alloy enterprises, companies have little incentive to price and sell futures contracts in advance. Currently, the downside room for aluminum scrap prices, which are closely linked to aluminum prices, is limited. This keeps ADC12 prices relatively strong in the short term, with the main operating range being 19,000-19,600 yuan/mt. In practice, according to Chen Xinyi, the ADC12-A00 price spread exhibits significant seasonal characteristics, weakening in Q2 and strengthening in Q3. Affected by policies, despite a capacity utilisation rate as high as 97%, electrolytic aluminum continues to destock, while the supply and demand of secondary aluminum show a surplus, with the current capacity utilisation rate being less than 50%. When the ADC12-A00 price spread is at historically high levels, the substitution effect of primary aluminum for aluminum scrap gradually becomes apparent. Some companies may consider adjusting their raw material ratios, and increased demand for electrolytic aluminum supports price increases, thereby driving the ADC12-A00 price spread to revert. In the short term, Fu Ying stated that cast aluminum alloy futures prices are expected to mainly follow aluminum price fluctuations, with cost support existing below. On the one hand, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract, AD2511, is still far from its delivery date, and the price trend of cast aluminum alloy is consistent with that of aluminum. The current low inventory and continuous destocking of electrolytic aluminum provide support for aluminum prices. On the other hand, the supply and demand of aluminum scrap are relatively tight, with aluminum scrap costs accounting for nearly 90% of the cost of cast aluminum alloy. The firmness of aluminum scrap prices supports ADC12 prices. However, affected by the traditional off-season, the upside room for cast aluminum alloy prices is also limited. Additionally, under the off-season consumption, the demand for selling hedging by cast aluminum alloy producers is high, which will suppress futures prices. Regarding the key points to be monitored subsequently, Fu Ying believes they mainly include changes in aluminum scrap supply, downstream demand, and the changes and impacts of spot pricing models after the listing of futures. Aluminum scrap supply determines the cost trend of cast aluminum alloy, while downstream demand affects the price spread fluctuations between cast aluminum alloy and primary aluminum. Stronger demand will drive the price spread between the two to revert. Currently, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy mainly refers to the quotes on information websites and the "enterprise quotes + premiums and discounts" model, lacking a relatively open and transparent market mechanism. After the listing of cast aluminum alloy futures, the number of market participants will gradually increase, which will help optimize the spot pricing model.

On Wednesday local time, data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the full impact of Trump's across-the-board tariff hikes had yet to be fully realized, with US CPI inflation in May falling short of expectations across the board. Following the data release, spot gold continued to rally, breaking through the $3,360/ounce mark, while the three major US stock index futures surged in the short term. Specific data revealed that the US unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May was recorded at 2.4%, lower than the market expectation of 2.5%; the seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate for May was recorded at 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0.2%. Excluding food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 2.8% YoY, remaining at the lowest level since March 2021, with an expected value of 2.9% and a previous value of 2.8%; the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate for the US in May was recorded at 0.1%, with an expected value of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.2%. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics pointed out that persistent weakness in energy and service prices offset the impact of price increases in other goods, while some key items originally expected to rise due to tariffs, particularly car and clothing prices, actually saw price reductions. Data showed that energy prices fell 1% in the month, with gasoline prices dropping 2.6%, and prices for new and used cars falling 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. Food prices rose 0.3%, and housing prices also increased by 0.3%, while clothing prices unexpectedly declined by 0.4%, indicating that the cost increases from tariffs had not yet been passed on to consumers. Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," commented that the decline in car and clothing prices contributed to the core CPI reading in May falling short of expectations. Some forecasters had believed these two categories would show the early impact of tariffs in May. Economists expect that, as most retailers are still selling goods stockpiled before the tariffs took effect, the full impact of President Trump's across-the-board tariff hikes on inflation has yet to be fully realized. Inflation is expected to accelerate in the second half of this year, with Walmart indicating last month that it would begin raising prices in late May and June. Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, stated, "Today's below-expectation inflation data is reassuring—but only to a certain extent. It's premature to conclude that price shocks won't materialize." Shah believes that the impact of tariffs may not be reflected in inflation data until late summer, due to inherent delays in economic data, ongoing changes in tariff policies, merchants stockpiling goods in advance and offering discounts, and some costs being absorbed by retailers and manufacturers themselves. Market pricing suggests that the US Fed may not consider further interest rate cuts before September, as policymakers are assessing the impact of tariffs on inflation. Trump has been urging the US Fed to lower interest rates amid cooling inflation and a slowing labour market. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of an interest rate cut by the US Fed in June is almost zero, while the likelihood of a cut in September is close to 70%. Goldman Sachs analysts stated that mild inflation data in May suggests that tariffs are not having a significant impact at present, as companies have been using existing inventory or slowly adjusting prices due to uncertain demand. "Although we may see some price increases for certain goods in the future, service prices are expected to remain stable, suggesting that any rise in inflation is likely to be temporary." Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, said that the current CPI data is much milder than expected. While some imported food prices have risen significantly, such as bananas by 3.3% and toys by 2.2%, egg prices have fallen by 2.7%. Greater stability in trade policies would greatly help avoid runaway inflation. This also reaffirms why the US Fed may shift its risk focus from inflation threats to threats to economic growth.

On Monday local time, a survey released by the New York Fed showed that as the tariff war cooled down, US consumers' concerns about inflation eased in May. Specifically, the Survey of Consumer Expectations in May indicated that the one-year inflation expectation was 3.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from a month earlier; the three-year inflation expectation fell from 3.2% in April to 3%; and the five-year inflation expectation dropped from 2.7% to 2.6%. Although these figures remain above the US Fed's annual inflation target of 2%, the changes in these indicators are moving in a positive direction and reflect a shift in the fear sentiment that had previously arisen from Trump's wielding of the tariff stick. In early April, Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports and a series of so-called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of trading partners. Faced with severe market volatility in financial markets, he then announced a postponement of the reciprocal tariff measures. US Fed officials closely monitor the trend of inflation expectations, as they believe that the public's expectations about inflation can have a strong impact on current levels. If people expect higher prices in the future, they may increase spending now and even demand higher wages. The Fed has repeatedly stated that the relative stability of long-term expectations is one reason they believe inflation will return to the target level. Compared with the survey results from the University of Michigan and the Conference Board, the New York Fed's survey results are less volatile. This survey brought some good news to the White House at a time when US government officials are trying to ease concerns about tariff-induced inflation. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said on Monday that, based on every inflation indicator, the decline exceeded the levels seen in more than four years. "Despite the increase in tariff revenue, inflation is declining, which contradicts what others have been saying but aligns closely with what we have been saying." However, economists generally expect that high tariffs will lead to higher prices for consumers while dampening employment and economic growth. The main question is whether these price increases will be one-time events or have lasting impacts. Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," commented that the New York Fed's inflation expectations for May unexpectedly declined, although uncertainty about medium-term inflation expectations remains high. In addition, the survey also showed that consumers believe there is a lower likelihood of unemployment rising next year and that they will have more opportunities to find work if they themselves become unemployed. In May, consumers became more optimistic about their personal financial situations, including a slight improvement in access to credit and a decrease in the likelihood of debt delinquency. However, a report on Monday revealed that one pain point for consumers still persists: grocery store operations. Consumers expect food prices to rise by 0.4 percentage points to 5.5% next year, the highest level since October 2023. Meanwhile, the expected increase in home prices in May was 3%, down from 3.3% in April.

The General Administration of Customs announced on the 9th that in the first five months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade reached 17.94 trillion yuan, up 2.5% YoY, continuing the growth trend. In May, import and export volume reached 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7%. In the same month, China's exports amounted to 2.28 trillion yuan, up 6.3%. Among them, exports to ASEAN, the EU, Africa, and the five Central Asian countries increased by 16.9%, 13.7%, 35.3%, and 8.8%, respectively.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers fell by 0.4% MoM in May, the same rate of decline as the previous month. On a YoY basis, it decreased by 3.3%, with the rate of decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. The main reasons for the MoM decline in PPI this month are as follows: Firstly, international imported factors influenced the price decline in related domestic industries. The downturn in international crude oil prices affected the price decline in domestic petroleum-related industries, with prices in the oil and natural gas extraction industry falling by 5.6%, prices in refined petroleum product manufacturing falling by 3.5%, and prices in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry falling by 1.2%. Collectively, these three industries contributed to approximately 0.23 percentage points of the MoM decline in PPI, accounting for over half of the total decline. Secondly, there was a phased downturn in the prices of certain domestic energy and raw materials. Coal demand was in the off-season, with sufficient coal reserves at power plants and ports. Additionally, the low cost and strong substitution effect of new energy power generation led to a 3.0% decline in prices in the coal mining and washing industry and a 1.1% decline in coal processing prices. Increased high-temperature and rainy weather in south China affected the construction of some real estate and infrastructure projects. Coupled with the adequate supply of building materials such as steel and cement, prices in the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and the non-metallic mineral products industry both fell by 1.0%. Collectively, these four industries contributed to approximately 0.18 percentage points of the MoM decline in PPI. In May 2025, the Producer Price Index for industrial producers fell by 3.3% YoY. In May 2025, the Producer Price Index for industrial producers nationwide fell by 3.3% YoY and 0.4% MoM, while the purchasing price index for industrial producers fell by 3.6% YoY and 0.6% MoM. On average from January to May, both the ex-factory prices and purchasing prices for industrial producers fell by 2.6% compared to the same period last year. I. Year-on-Year Changes in Producer Prices for Industrial Products In May, among the ex-factory prices for industrial producers, the price of means of production fell by 4.0%, contributing to a decline of approximately 2.98 percentage points in the overall level of ex-factory prices for industrial producers. Specifically, prices in the mining industry fell by 11.9%, prices in the raw material industry fell by 5.4%, and prices in the processing industry fell by 2.8%. The price of means of subsistence fell by 1.4%, contributing to a decline of approximately 0.36 percentage points in the overall level of ex-factory prices for industrial producers. Specifically, food prices fell by 1.4%, clothing prices remained flat, general daily necessities prices rose by 0.6%, and durable consumer goods prices fell by 3.3%. Among the purchasing prices for industrial producers, prices in the fuel and power category fell by 9.8%, prices in the ferrous metal materials category fell by 7.3%, prices in the chemical raw materials category fell by 5.4%, prices in the agricultural and sideline products category fell by 2.6%, prices in the textile raw materials category fell by 2.5%, and prices in the building materials and non-metals category fell by 1.1%. Prices in the non-ferrous metal materials and wire category rose by 4.6%. II. Month-on-Month Changes in Industrial Producer Prices In May, among the ex-factory prices of industrial producers, the prices of means of production decreased by 0.6%, contributing to a decline of approximately 0.44 percentage points in the overall ex-factory price level of industrial producers. Specifically, prices in the mining industry decreased by 2.5%, prices in the raw material industry decreased by 0.9%, and prices in the processing industry decreased by 0.3%. Prices of consumer goods remained flat. Among them, food prices decreased by 0.1%, clothing prices increased by 0.2%, and prices of general daily necessities and durable consumer goods both increased by 0.1%. Among the purchase prices of industrial producers, prices of fuels and power decreased by 2.1%, prices of chemical raw materials decreased by 1.2%, prices of ferrous metal materials decreased by 0.6%, prices of textile raw materials decreased by 0.4%, prices of building materials and non-metals decreased by 0.2%, and prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wires decreased by 0.1%; prices of agricultural and sideline products remained flat. CPI Slightly Declined in May 2025, While Core CPI Increased on a YoY Basis —Interpretation of CPI and PPI Data for May 2025 by Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% MoM and 0.1% YoY. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI increased by 0.6% YoY, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 0.4% MoM, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month, and decreased by 3.3% YoY, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. China is boosting consumption with greater intensity and more precise measures, fostering the growth of new quality productive forces, improving the supply-demand relationship in some areas, and prices are showing positive changes. I. CPI Slightly Declined, While Core CPI Increased on a YoY Basis The shift from an increase to a decrease in CPI on a MoM basis was mainly influenced by the decline in energy prices. Energy prices decreased by 1.7% MoM, contributing to a decline of approximately 0.13 percentage points in CPI on a MoM basis, accounting for nearly 70% of the total decline in CPI. Among them, gasoline prices decreased by 3.8%, with the decline expanding by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. Food prices decreased by 0.2%, with the decline being 1.1 percentage points less than the seasonal level, contributing to a decline of approximately 0.04 percentage points in CPI on a MoM basis. Among them, the market supply of seasonal vegetables increased, and fresh vegetable prices decreased by 5.9%; prices of eggs, pork, and poultry meat slightly decreased, with declines ranging from 0.3% to 1.0%; affected by factors such as heavy rainfall in some areas and the summer fishing moratorium, the supply of fresh fruits, freshwater fish, and marine fish decreased, and prices increased by 3.3%, 3.1%, and 1.5%, respectively. Consumer demand continued to recover, coupled with the impact of holidays and cultural, sports, and entertainment activities held across the country. As a result, hotel accommodation and tourism prices rose by 4.6% and 0.8%, respectively, both exceeding seasonal levels. The increase in hotel accommodation prices reached a new high for the same period in the past decade. With the arrival of the summer season and the launch of new summer clothing collections, clothing prices rose by 0.6%. The CPI declined slightly YoY, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month. Among them, energy prices fell by 6.1% YoY, with the decline widening by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.47 percentage points in the CPI YoY, which was the main factor behind the CPI's YoY decline. Policies aimed at boosting consumption continued to show positive effects, with prices in some areas showing positive changes. Core CPI rose by 0.6% YoY, with the increase widening by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Among them, industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy rose by 0.6%, with the increase widening by 0.2 percentage point from the previous month. Prices of gold jewelry, home textiles, and cultural and recreational durable consumer goods rose by 40.1%, 1.9%, and 1.8%, respectively, with all increases widening. Prices of gasoline-powered passenger cars and new energy passenger cars fell by 4.2% and 2.8%, respectively, with the declines narrowing. Service prices rose by 0.5%, with the increase widening by 0.2 percentage point from the previous month. Among services, rental fees for transportation vehicles, airfares, and tourism prices all turned from decline to increase, rising by 3.6%, 1.2%, and 0.9%, respectively. II. PPI Remained Low, with Prices in Some Sectors Showing Marginal Improvement The main reasons for the MoM decline in PPI this month are as follows: First, international imported factors influenced the decline in domestic prices of related industries. The decline in international crude oil prices affected the decline in domestic prices of petroleum-related industries, with prices in the oil and natural gas extraction industry falling by 5.6%, prices in the refined petroleum product manufacturing industry falling by 3.5%, and prices in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry falling by 1.2%. These three industries collectively contributed to a decrease of approximately 0.23 percentage points in PPI MoM, accounting for more than half of the total decline. Second, domestic prices of some energy and raw materials declined on a temporary basis. Coal demand was in the off-season, with sufficient coal reserves at power plants and ports. Additionally, the low cost and strong substitution effect of new energy power generation led to a 3.0% decline in prices in the coal mining and washing industry and a 1.1% decline in coal processing prices. Increased high-temperature and rainy weather in south China affected the construction of some real estate and infrastructure projects. Coupled with sufficient supply in the production of building materials such as steel and cement, prices in the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and the non-metallic mineral products industry both fell by 1.0%. These four industries collectively contributed to a decrease of approximately 0.18 percentage points in PPI MoM. Coupled with factors such as a higher comparison base in the same period last year, the YoY decline in PPI widened by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. However, from the perspective of marginal changes, China has intensified the implementation of macro policies, leading to improvements in the supply-demand relationship in some industries and a positive trend in prices in certain sectors. First, the continuous growth of new consumption momentum has driven a YoY rebound in prices of consumer goods. The continuous effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting consumption has led to the release of demand for some consumer goods, driving a rebound in prices in related industries. The MoM decline in consumer goods prices turned to flatness from a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. Among them, prices for clothing, general daily necessities, and durable consumer goods rose by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1%, respectively, driving the YoY decline in consumer goods prices to narrow by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. From an industry perspective, prices for arts and crafts and ceremonial goods manufacturing rose by 12.8% YoY, footwear manufacturing prices increased by 0.8%, and computer whole machine manufacturing prices rose by 0.2%. The YoY declines in prices for household washing machines, television manufacturing, and automobile whole vehicle manufacturing narrowed by 1.6, 1.4, and 0.6 percentage points, respectively, compared to the previous month. Second, the development of industries such as high-end equipment manufacturing has driven a YoY increase in prices in related sectors. The steady progress in the high-end, intelligent, and green transformation of industrial development, along with the expansion of demand for high-tech products, has led to a YoY increase in prices in related industries. Prices for integrated circuit packaging and testing series, as well as aircraft manufacturing, both rose by 3.6%. Prices for wearable smart device manufacturing increased by 3.0%, microwave communication equipment prices rose by 2.1%, server prices increased by 0.8%, and prices for semiconductor device manufacturing equipment rose by 0.7%. In addition, the supply-demand relationship in new energy industries such as PV and lithium batteries has improved, with narrower YoY declines in prices. Prices for PV equipment and components manufacturing, as well as lithium-ion battery manufacturing, fell by 12.1% and 5.0%, respectively, with declines narrowing by 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to the previous month. Recommended Reading: 》National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): CPI Down 0.1% YoY and 0.2% MoM in May