[SMM Steel] India’s finished steel imports surged 31% YoY to 679,000 mt in April, fueled by high domestic prices that created a profitable arbitrage gap for foreign suppliers. This growth was further bolstered by a slight reduction in safeguard duties and the cost-effectiveness of FTA-origin materials, such as duty-exempt Japanese steel. Additionally, logistical disruptions in the Middle East caused Asian shipments to be diverted to Indian ports, while imports from a key South Korean mill rose by over 30% month-on-month. However, the outlook remains uncertain, as the approaching June monsoon season may dampen domestic demand and weaken prices, potentially narrowing the current window for profitable importing.

[SMM Steel] Ukraine's finished steel products fell 15.8% m/m to 460,800 tonnes in April 2026. Steel output fell 25.3% m/m to 517,300 tonnes. Pig iron fell 16.1% m/m to 554,000 tonnes. Jan-Apr steel -7.4% y/y to 2.25 million tonnes, pig iron -0.3% to 2.36 million tonnes, rolled -9.1% to 1.8 million tonnes. April's decline was partly due to an unscheduled shutdown at Zaporizhstal. High electricity/gas prices and CBAM remain pressing issues. In 2025, commercial rolled steel rose 4.8% y/y to 6.52 million tonnes, pig iron +11.2% to 7.88 million tonnes, steel -2.2% to 7.41 million tonnes. GMK Center's Dec forecast: steel output of 7.2 million tonnes in 2026 (base case) or 6.3-6.6 million tonnes in a pessimistic scenario.

[China Domestic Ore Brief] Iron ore concentrates prices in the Tangshan area edged up by 10-15 yuan, with current 66-grade iron ore concentrates priced at 990-995 yuan/mt on a dry basis, tax-inclusive, ex-factory. Recently, finished steel prices rose, improving steel mill profits. Combined with imported ore prices fluctuating upward, this drove domestic iron ore concentrates prices to rise. Looking ahead to next week, domestic ore supply remains tight. Demand side, domestic steel mills' high

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] News: Some steel mills have accepted the third round of coke price increase, with a rise of 50-55 yuan/mt, expected to take effect from 00:00 on May 11. In terms of supply, coke producers' profits narrowed but remained above the break-even level, with moderate production enthusiasm. Supply was generally stable with a slight increase, coke producers' shipments were smooth, and their own coke inventory stayed at a relatively low level. Demand side, recent finished steel prices rose, steel mill profits increased, daily average hot metal output remained at a relatively high level, and procurement demand for coke persisted. In summary, the third round of coke price increase was still in a negotiation phase, and the coke market may hold up well and remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

After the holiday, ferrous metals opened higher, but subsequent trends diverged—steel products and iron ore fluctuated at highs, while coke surged before pulling back. The strong rally during the week was mainly driven by disturbances outside China. During the holiday, the US-Iran standoff escalated with widening negotiation gaps, pushing raw materials to lead the gains in ferrous metals. Combined with capital inflows after the holiday, this provided a clear upward drive for prices. In the latter half of the week, market rumors suggested that Iran and the US had reached a consensus on easing the US naval blockade in exchange for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and bears increased their positions in coke. Data on the five major steel products were released, showing weakness in both supply and demand, with inventory not accumulating after the holiday. On the spot market side, traders had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and purchases were made in both futures and spot cargo at low price levels...

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, coking costs increased, squeezing coke enterprise profits. Currently, coke enterprises maintained normal shipments, with their own coke inventory at low levels, and coke production levels were generally stable with slight increases. Demand side, steel mills currently had high production enthusiasm, hot metal production declined slightly but remained at a relatively high level, sustaining rigid demand for coke. Additionally, finished steel prices rose notably after the holiday, expanding steel mill profits. In summary, the third round of coke price increase has not yet been implemented, with coke and steel enterprises continuing to negotiate. In the short term, the coke market is expected to hold up well, remaining generally stable with slight rise.

ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih (AMKR) has announced a temporary suspension of its steel and rolled product manufacturing for at least four days, starting May 5, 2026, due to critical damage to the railway infrastructure connecting the plant to Black Sea ports. The logistics bottleneck, caused by repeated strikes on the Odesa-Chornomorsk bridge, has paralyzed the export of iron ore concentrate and finished steel, forcing the company to idle Blast Furnace No. 6. While the plant aimed for a 2026 production target of 5.3 million metric tons (mt) of iron ore concentrate and 3.8 million mt of crude steel, this disruption threatens to tighten the supply of long products in the European and North African markets.

India's crude steel production rose by 6% year-on-year in April 2026 to reach 12.1 million metric tons (Mt). Domestic finished steel consumption outpaced production growth, increasing by 8% to 11.3 million mt, driven by strong infrastructure activity. During the month, finished steel output stood at 11.6 million mt (+5.5% YoY), while imports jumped 12% to 0.6 million mt and exports fell by 15% to 0.5 million mt. The data confirms India's status as a primary driver of global steel demand, with strong domestic absorption reducing export surpluses and making the country a net importer for the period, which may support global steel prices amid tightening regional supply.

Turkey's crude steel production grew by 5.3% year-on-year to 9.7 million metric tons (mt) in the first quarter of 2026, supported by a 6.4% output increase in March to 3.3 million mt. Meanwhile, domestic finished steel consumption surged 8.9% year-on-year to 9.9 million mt in Q1, but the foreign trade balance weakened as steel exports dropped 6.8% to 3.5 million mt while imports climbed 2.6% to 4.3 million mt, pushing the export-to-import ratio down to 77.7%. Although Middle East supply chain shifts and reduced Chinese export aggression opened market opportunities in Europe, producers face mounting operational pressures and narrowing profit margins due to scrap prices approaching $400/mt, surging freight rates, and stringent EU import regulations.

【SMM Steel】Turkey's March finished steel consumption rose 20.9% y/y to 3.2Mt, crude steel output up 6.4% to 3.3Mt. Q1 exports fell 6.8% in volume and 9.4% in value. Middle East tensions are reshaping supply chains. Turkey is gaining market share in Europe but surging scrap/energy prices and freight/insurance costs are squeezing margins. Steel imports surged 38.2% y/y in March. New EU trade restrictions are a critical issue. The association called for proactive steps to shield the domestic industry from dumping amid rapidly spreading steel protectionism.