On August 17, the average SMM price of #1 refined nickel was 129,600 yuan/mt, up 1,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,400 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the range for China’s mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-500 yuan/mt.

[8.17 Morning Meeting Minutes] The overall increase in the US Producer Price Index (PPI) in July remained mild, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures, and expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike in September cooled further. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged sharply in early trading, closing the morning session at 127,300 yuan/mt, down 1.12%. The Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) recommended keeping the 2026 nickel ore RKAB at 270 million wmt and additionally setting a 30 million wmt strategic buffer, bringing the potential total quota to 300 million wmt. With expectations for looser RKAB quotas, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, and the trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced on August 14, in his address to parliament on the 2027 draft state budget, that Indonesia will launch a Strategic Minerals and Commodities Exchange (Bursa Mineral dan Komoditas Strategis) on January 1, 2027, under the supervision of financial regulator OJK. He framed it as the next stage of the single-window export policy, arguing prices for Indonesian palm oil, nickel, tin, coal and gold have long been set on overseas exchanges using benchmarks Indonesia did not create. The stated aim is to build an Indonesia Reference Price for major export commodities and a deeper, more transparent market with less room for manipulation. He asked parliament to pass the enabling rules quickly. SMM notes implementing rules and scope are not yet defined.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Jamaica and Ghana are negotiating a potential US$60 million bauxite-to-alumina supply arrangement that would revive a trading relationship first proposed more than two decades ago. Under the proposed structure, Jamaican bauxite would be shipped to the Atlantic Alumina Company (ATALCO) refinery in Gramercy, Louisiana, for processing into alumina, before the alumina is exported to Ghana for use in its aluminum industry. The discussions involve Jamaica’s state-owned Jamaica Bauxite Mining (JBM) and Ghana’s integrated aluminum development efforts.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Zinc Prices Fluctuate at Highs; Watch Changes in the LME Structure] Last Friday, LME zinc posted a small bullish candlestick, with various moving averages below providing support, while the upper Bollinger Bands’ upper band formed resistance above. Affected by the unexpected negative US monthly retail sales rate, a weaker US dollar, and the widening LME backwardation structure...

SMM News on August 15: Metals market: Overnight last Friday, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.49%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper fell 0.31% for the week. SHFE aluminum was flat at 23,945 yuan/mt. SHFE lead fell 0.22%, SHFE zinc rose 0.41%, and SHFE tin rose 0.36%. SHFE nickel edged up 0.07%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.19%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Overnight last Friday, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 0.49%, iron ore fell 0.35%, and rebar fell 0.03%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.7%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.97%. Overnight last Friday, in overseas metals, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.26%; on a weekly basis, LME copper extended gains for seven consecutive weeks, rising 1.07% for the week. LME aluminum rose 0.22%. LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.45%. LME tin rose 0.36%. LME nickel rose 0.3%. Overnight last Friday, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.26%; COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 0.73% for the week. COMEX silver fell 0.26%; COMEX silver recorded a second consecutive weekly gain, up 2.09% for the week. Overnight last Friday, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.6%; SHFE gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 1.68% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.57%; SHFE silver extended gains for four consecutive weeks, up 3.45% for the week. As of 7:17 on August 15, the overnight closing performance last Friday: Macro front China: [PBOC: Aggregate Social Financing Rose by 22.25 Trillion Yuan in the First Seven Months; M2 Up 7.7% YoY in July] According to preliminary statistics from the PBOC, in the first seven months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing totaled 22.25 trillion yuan, down 174 billion yuan from the same period a year earlier. Among this, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 1.017 trillion yuan, an increase of 214 billion yuan less YoY; foreign-currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, increased by 169.4 billion yuan, an increase of 241.9 billion yuan more YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 81 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1 billion yuan more YoY; trust loans decreased by 67.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 226.4 billion yuan more YoY; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances decreased by 178.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 41 billion yuan less YoY; net financing via enterprise bonds was 252 billion yuan, 110 billion yuan more YoY; net financing via government bonds was 776 billion yuan, 115 billion yuan less YoY; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 406.1 billion yuan, 184.7 billion yuan more YoY. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 10.38 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 827.1 billion yuan, including a decrease of 928.1 billion yuan in short-term loans and an increase of 101 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 11 trillion yuan, including an increase of 434 million yuan in short-term loans, an increase of 532 million yuan in medium and long-term loans, and an increase of 119 million yuan in bill financing; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 394.4 billion yuan. At month-end in July, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 35.551 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 11.546 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 1.482 trillion yuan, up 11.6% YoY. In the first seven months, net cash injections totaled 725.5 billion yuan. [Shanghai: Promoting the Momentum-Building of Leading Industries Such as Integrated Circuits, Civil Aviation, Intelligent Vehicles, and High-End Equipment] Today (August 14), Chen Jining, Secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, spent the entire day conducting a survey in the Lin-gang Special Area of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone and chaired a symposium. Chen noted that the Lin-gang Special Area must always place advanced manufacturing in a prominent position and unswervingly enhance its capacity level and core competitiveness. It should seize opportunities in digital-intelligent and green transformation, and while ensuring project implementation, place greater emphasis on cultivating an industrial ecosystem—fostering industry leaders and high-growth enterprises, planning industrial platforms and enhancing service capabilities, strengthening the resilience and stickiness of industrial development, and promoting the momentum-building of leading industries such as integrated circuits, civil aviation, intelligent vehicles, and high-end equipment. It should leverage the advantage of abundant manufacturing scenarios to advance the digital-intelligent transformation of industry, and increase the application of industrial robots, vertical models, and intelligent agents in key links such as production and manufacturing and equipment operation and maintenance, driving systematic, end-to-end transformation across industrial design, pilot-scale validation, inspection and detection, and marketing and operations. It should optimize the business environment and improve services for enterprises, accelerating the cultivation of world-class enterprises. It should deepen reforms of management systems in development zones, and refine and improve reform plans around key links such as functional positioning, spatial integration, professional services, and assessment and evaluation. (Shanghai Release) US dollar: The US dollar index fell 0.32% overnight last Friday to 99.64. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index rose 0.04% for the week. US retail sales released on Friday fell 0.6% MoM in July, the largest decline in more than a year. Combined with mild inflation data this week, market pricing for a US Fed rate hike in September further collapsed. The US dollar index declined. With a mild CPI on Wednesday, zero MoM growth in PPI on Thursday, and a downside surprise in retail sales on Friday, the three-hit combination drove the probability of a September rate hike down from 75% at month-end in July to around 25%. CME FedWatch showed that 67% of traders bet on no change in September. The focus of market pricing has shifted from “how many more rate hikes” to “whether this rate-hike cycle has already ended.” (Wallstreetcn) The US Department of Commerce announced on Friday that July retail sales fell 0.6% MoM, the biggest decline in more than a year, versus market expectations of a slight increase. Core control group sales excluding autos, building materials, and gas stations fell 0.4%, the weakest performance since January 2025. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August released the same day came in at just 51, well below the expected 54.5. (Wallstreetcn) As households grew concerned about worsening business conditions and rising inflation, US consumer sentiment fell for the first time in three months. According to survey data released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the preliminary August consumer sentiment index dropped to 51, below the final July reading of 55.2. The median economist forecast was 55. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.3% over the next year, edging up MoM and well above the level before the Iran conflict broke out in February. They also expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next five to 10 years. After improving for two consecutive months, consumers’ confidence in both the short-term and long-term economic outlook deteriorated. Since the start of the year, consumers’ expectations for the labour market have changed relatively little. The survey showed consumers are increasingly worried about inflation, while concerns about unemployment have eased. The survey covered responses collected from July 28 to August 10. During this period, the US national average gasoline price hovered above $4 per gallon. Another report released on Friday showed US retail sales in July posted the biggest drop in more than a year, as consumers cut back on purchases of autos and from online stores. (Jinshi Data APP) US Fed’s Goolsbee said he supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged in July. He noted that the latest two productivity readings were not ideal, and if productivity continues to weaken, the US Fed may need to reassess market expectations for artificial intelligence (AI). Goolsbee said the latest CPI data were encouraging, but more data are needed before making a judgment; persistent weakness in consumption is concerning, though the current retail sales weakness is only a one-month performance. Meanwhile, US GDP and the labour market were basically stable overall. (From the Wallstreetcn APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September is 67.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 32.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October is 53.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 6.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including China’s July total retail sales (YoY), China’s July industrial output above designated size (YoY), Canada’s July CPI (MoM), the US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, the US August NAHB Housing Market Index, the UK three-month ILO unemployment rate for June, the UK July unemployment rate, the UK July claimant count, Germany’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the Eurozone’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending August 1, the annualized total US July housing starts, total US July building permits, the US July import price index (MoM), the US July industrial production (MoM), the US July pending home sales index (MoM), the UK July CPI (MoM), the UK July retail price index (MoM), the Eurozone’s June seasonally adjusted current account, the Eurozone’s final July CPI (YoY), the Eurozone’s final July CPI (MoM), the share of Swift RMB in global payments for China in July, China’s one-year loan prime rate through August 20, Australia’s July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July PPI (MoM), Switzerland’s July trade balance, the UK August CBI industrial trends orders balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, the US August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the US July Conference Board Leading Index (MoM), the UK August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, Japan’s July core CPI (YoY), the UK July public sector net borrowing, the UK July seasonally adjusted retail sales (MoM), the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for France, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for Germany, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for the UK, the preliminary August services PMI for the UK, Canada’s June retail sales (MoM), the preliminary August S&P Global manufacturing PMI for the US, the preliminary global services PMI, and the preliminary August consumer confidence index for the Eurozone, among others. In addition, this week also required attention to: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releasing the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference on national economic performance; ECB President Lagarde attending the “Global Economic Outlook” session at the World Economic Forum International Business Council (IBC) meeting; the US Fed releasing the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; and Hang Seng Indexes Company announcing the results of the Hang Seng Index Series review for 2026 Q2. On crude oil: Overnight on Friday, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.42% and Brent up 2.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures rose 5.4% for the week, while Brent posted a positive weekly close, up 6.31% for the week. International oil prices rose as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly ground to a halt. Two vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz that day, bringing passage to a near standstill; the US said it could maintain a maritime blockade of Iran indefinitely, and Trump said he would impose severe economic strikes on Iran. Capital Economics estimated that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were currently only about 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, far below pre-conflict levels. Prompt Brent maintained a spot premiums structure, indicating continued tightness in physical supply. Capacity at three of the world’s four major refining hubs was damaged, and the surge in refined product prices was being directly passed through to end consumers. (Wallstreetcn) Traders said that as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, Asian refiners were seeking alternative supplies for delivery later this year, and at least four Asian refiners bought US crude oil this week. Both the US and Iran claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, and vessel traffic through the strait fell below this month’s average in the latter half of the week. With no sign of a near-term resumption of smooth shipping through the strait, tightening fuel supplies will lift refining margins, prompting refiners to lock in crude oil inventory needed for the coming months from markets outside the Gulf region. South Korea’s GS Caltex bought 2 million barrels of Mars crude from Shell, plan to deliver in November. Traders said the cargo was priced at a premium of about $13-$14 per barrel to the October Dubai benchmark price. Japan’s third-largest refiner, Cosmo Energy Holdings, bought Mars crude from Trafigura; Japan’s largest refiner, ENEOS, purchased 2 million barrels of WTI crude from Trafigura, plan to deliver in November, at a premium of more than $10 per barrel to October WTI prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US oil production is expected to average 13.83 million barrels per day in August, versus 13.82 million barrels per day in July; September is expected to average 13.77 million barrels per day. (Jinshi Data APP) Notably, due to position rolling and contract rollover, NYMEX New York crude oil September futures will complete the last floor trading at 2:30 on August 21 and the last electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange’s expiry and rollover notices to manage risk. In addition, the expiry time for US oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule; please pay close attention. Recommended Reading:

Futures: Last Friday, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,890.5/mt, drifted lower during the Asian session, and after dipping to $1,881.0/mt, consolidated in a narrow range at low levels. It then gradually rebounded during the European session, and surged late in the session to a high of $1,896.5/mt, finally closing at $1,895.5/mt, up 0.26%. Open interest increased by 3,720 lots to 183,969 lots on the day. On Friday night, the SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,840 yuan/mt in the night session. After briefly touching a high of 15,855 yuan/mt early on, it quickly fell, bottoming at 15,740 yuan/mt, then consolidated and rebounded. In the latter half, it traded in the 15,820-15,840 yuan/mt range, and finally closed at 15,805 yuan/mt, down 0.22%. Night-session open interest decreased by 1,185 lots to 37,951 lots. It should be noted that the 2608 contract was in the delivery period. Prices and open interest of near-month contracts were susceptible to disruptions from delivery and contract rollover, and the subsequent trend of the 2609 contract still required close tracking of the pace of fund position shifting. Overall, after SHFE lead retreated from highs, it had yet to show clear rebound momentum. On the macro front: The situation in the Middle East continued to escalate. Iran said US forces had been expelled and were not allowed to enter the strait; Syrian sources said Yemen’s Houthi forces launched an attack on a US drone; and the Israel Defense Forces launched strikes on southern Lebanon over the weekend. Rising geopolitical tensions could lift crude oil and inflation expectations, and affect risk appetite for nonferrous metals via the US dollar and expectations for US Fed policy. US President Trump demanded a significant reduction in the scale of US–South Korea joint military exercises. Today, focus was on the impact of Middle East developments and crude oil price changes on macro sentiment. PBOC: In the first seven months, cumulative growth in aggregate financing to the real economy totaled 22.25 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 10.38 trillion yuan. National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): Starting from 24:00 on August 14, China’s retail price caps for gasoline and diesel were lowered by 230 yuan/mt and 220 yuan/mt, respectively. Zhongwei Semiconductor: Net profit in 2026 H1 was 172 million yuan, up 98.48% YoY. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead reversed and pulled back, and suppliers’ willingness to sell declined somewhat, while quotations for warrant cargoes also decreased. In addition, EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters were quoted in line with the market, with mainstream producing areas quoted at parity against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, and discounted cargoes decreased somewhat. For secondary lead, smelters’ willingness to quote declined, market circulating cargoes decreased, and some smelters held back from selling at low prices; secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed. Approaching the weekend, some rigid-demand restocking increased somewhat, but overall wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, and spot market transactions saw limited improvement. Inventory: On August 14, LME lead inventory fell by 1,700 mt, or 0.41%, to 412,675 mt; according to SMM, as of August 13, SMM five-location social inventory of lead ingots stood at 75,200 mt, up 2,400 mt from August 10. Today’s Lead Price Forecast: This week marks the delivery period for the SHFE lead 2608 contract. Ahead of delivery, lead ingots saw an on-schedule inventory buildup, dragging lead prices lower. However, it is worth noting that maintenance among primary lead enterprises increased in mid-to-late August, mainly among delivery brand enterprises, which may support a rebound in lead prices. Meanwhile, consumption in the lead-acid battery market was mediocre, while just-in-time procurement demand from downstream enterprises was moderate, which can be regarded as a neutral factor. In summary, SMM expects lead prices to rebound after probing lows.

China’s refined copper output is expected to decline year on year for a second consecutive month in August as persistent shortages of copper concentrate and other smelter feedstocks continue to weigh on operating rates.​ State-backed research house Antaike forecasts August refined copper production at around 1.05 million tonnes among surveyed producers representing 81.97% of China’s total smelting capacity, down 2.83% year on year. July output from the same group is estimated at a similar 1.05 million tonnes, representing a 3.18% annual decline and falling short of an earlier forecast of 1.07 million tonnes.​ The expected contraction reflects increasingly tight availability of raw materials. Copper concentrate supply has remained under pressure for an extended period, prompting smelters to lower capacity utilisation as competition for feedstock intensifies.​ The strain is also visible in treatment charges. Processing fees for imported copper concentrate have remained negative for 19 consecutive months, while charges fell to a record low of around minus $175.7/t on August 7, compared with minus $38.4/t during the same period a year earlier. The deepening negative charges highlight the severity of competition among smelters for available concentrate.​ At the same time, tighter domestic tax-invoice regulations have constrained the supply of VAT-compliant recycled copper, reducing another important source of smelter feedstock and adding further pressure to refined output.​ The expected second consecutive annual decline in refined production suggests that prolonged concentrate tightness is increasingly translating into constraints on finished copper supply. With China accounting for a dominant share of global smelting capacity, continued feedstock shortages could further tighten refined copper availability and increase the market’s sensitivity to additional disruptions in concentrate supply.

Copper is trading near record levels at around $14,500/t, while tightness in the London Metal Exchange market has intensified sharply. The August–September spread has widened to around $370/t, while the cash-to-three-month backwardation has reached approximately $434/t, highlighting increasingly strong demand for immediately available metal.​ The tightening market structure has coincided with a prolonged decline in exchange inventories. LME copper stocks have fallen for 42 consecutive days to 204,975 tonnes, with nearly half of the remaining material reportedly already earmarked for withdrawal. The combination of falling inventories and widening nearby premiums points to mounting pressure in the physical market.​ At the same time, copper flows are becoming increasingly fragmented geographically. Metal has been redirected toward the US amid expectations of possible 15–30% tariffs on refined copper, while demand for deliverable units in China has also strengthened as smelters face tighter feedstock availability following the DRC’s concentrate export restrictions.​ Supply-side constraints are adding to the pressure. Chilean copper production remains around 5.5 million tonnes per year, while Indonesia’s 342,000-tpy Gresik smelter is currently offline, reducing refined supply availability. These developments come as concentrate markets remain tight and smelter operating conditions stay under pressure.​ The increasingly pronounced backwardation suggests that the immediate issue for the copper market is not simply high prices, but access to physical metal. BMI currently expects 2026 copper prices to average around $13,500/t, while maintaining a view of strong upside risks. If LME inventories continue to decline, competition for warehouse metal could intensify further, increasing the risk of additional volatility in nearby contracts.

Editor’s Note: Looking back at the H1 rare earth market, it was truly a case of “you reap what you sow.” The rare earth sector as a whole drifted higher amid consolidation, while price performance diverged across products. Pr-Nd oxide rose 22.42% in H1, dysprosium oxide increased 5.97%, and terbium oxide gained 8.37%. As the tide lifts all boats, the rise in rare earth prices directly boosted operating returns for enterprises across the industry chain. According to SMM statistics, the 10 rare earth-related firms that have disclosed semi-annual reports, preliminary earnings releases, and earnings forecasts all delivered varying degrees of earnings growth in H1. The market is now eagerly awaiting the realization of demand in the traditional peak season. At this period of transition from summer to autumn, can the H2 rare earth market sustain H1’s gains, and what kind of market landscape will emerge for upstream and downstream players in the rare earth industry chain? Multiple Rare Earth Companies Report Strong H1 Results A semi-annual earnings forecast disclosed by China Rare Earth on the evening of July 13 showed that, based on preliminary estimates by the company’s finance department, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm for the 2026 semi-annual period was expected to be 3,700 million yuan to 4,300 million yuan, an increase of 297.5013 million yuan to 357.5013 million yuan from the same period last year, up 410.35% to 493.11% YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for the 2026 semi-annual period was expected to be 3,680.027 million yuan to 4,280.027 million yuan, an increase of 276.2326 million yuan to 336.2326 million yuan from the same period last year, up 301.00% to 366.39% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected earnings increase for the period, China Rare Earth stated: (1) In H1 2026, amid changes in the supply-demand pattern of the rare earth industry and YoY increases in prices of major rare earth products, the company enhanced overall operating value of its core rare earth business by innovating an integrated operating model, coordinating rare earth raw material procurement for separation plants and full-product market sales, and dynamically adjusting its product output mix based on analysis of changes in supply and demand. (2) The company vigorously advanced loss-making enterprise remediation and deepened reform initiatives, achieving notable results; resources were further concentrated in core main businesses and advantaged businesses, and loss-making enterprises significantly reduced losses YoY. (3) The company’s investee, Dabaoshan, maintained stable and high output; sales and prices of copper and sulfur products both rose YoY, increasing enterprise profitability, and the company’s investment income recognized under the equity method increased. A semi-annual earnings forecast disclosed by Huahong Technology on the evening of July 13 showed that net profit attributable to the parent in H1 2026 was expected to be 320 million yuan to 360 million yuan, up 301.84%–352.08% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the performance change, Huahong Technology stated: In H1 2026, benefiting from industry policies and a rebound in downstream demand, prices of major rare earth products in China climbed steadily. The company’s comprehensive utilization segment for rare earth resources seized market opportunities, fully leveraging its overall advantages in capacity scale, cost control, and process technologies, continuously optimizing supply–production–sales coordination and inventory management strategies, and effectively driving a full release of profitability in this segment. The company continued to deepen its layout across the rare earth industry chain, with its downstream rare earth permanent magnet material business expanding steadily. Benefiting from stable demand in end-use sectors such as NEVs, wind power, and industrial automation, this segment continued to scale up, with revenue and product mix continuously improving, becoming an important supplement to earnings growth. Xiamen Tungsten’s semiannual performance forecast showed that, based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, it was expected that in H1 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm would be about 2.2160318 billion yuan, an increase of about 1.2467133 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, up about 128.62% YoY. Based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, it was expected that in H1 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after excluding non-recurring gains and losses would be about 2.1760263 billion yuan, an increase of about 1.2534882 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, up about 135.87% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected increase in performance for the period, Xiamen Tungsten explained: In H1, amid a market environment where material prices for major raw materials such as tungsten, cobalt, lithium carbonate, and Pr-Nd oxide rose YoY and swung wildly, the company responded proactively, dynamically adjusted its operating strategy, and drove a linked rise in selling prices; meanwhile, it continued to enhance product quality and market development capabilities. Sales of major products such as alloy bars, cutting tools, power battery cathode materials, and magnetic materials climbed steadily, and profitability across the company’s three core businesses—tungsten & molybdenum, new energy materials, and rare earths—improved to varying degrees. Ningbo Yunsheng disclosed a performance forecast on the evening of July 14, showing that, based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, it was expected that in H1 2026, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm would be 240 million yuan to 310 million yuan; compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed figures), it would increase by 132.1657 million yuan to 202.1657 million yuan, up 122.56%–187.48% YoY. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was expected to be 2.1 billion yuan to 2.8 billion yuan for the 2026 semiannual period. Compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), this was expected to increase by 1.3954 billion yuan to 1.913954 billion yuan, up 137.01% to 216.01% YoY. Ningbo Yunsheng stated that the main reasons for this performance increase were: during the reporting period, the Company remained client demand-oriented, deeply focused on NEVs, consumer electronics, industrial and other application fields, actively explored emerging and regional markets, seized development opportunities for new projects, continuously optimized its business mix, and increased the proportion of revenue from outside China. Meanwhile, the Company continued to deepen refined management, driving higher product gross margins and resulting in an increase in net profit. The semiannual earnings forecast released by China Northern Rare Earth showed that, based on a preliminary estimate by the Company’s finance department, the net profit attributable to owners of the parent was expected to be 19.8 billion yuan to 20.6 billion yuan for the 2026 semiannual period. Compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), this was expected to increase by 10.5 billion yuan to 11.3 billion yuan, up 112.74% to 121.33% YoY. The net profit attributable to owners of the parent, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was expected to be 19.9 billion yuan to 20.7 billion yuan for the 2026 semiannual period. Compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), this was expected to increase by 10.93 billion yuan to 11.73 billion yuan, up 121.90% to 130.82% YoY. As for the main reasons for the performance increase in the current period: In H1 2026, the Company served the national rare earth resources strategy and fully implemented the requirements for secure control of the rare earth industry chain. Affected by factors such as constrained supply on the raw material end of the market and the release of downstream demand across multiple areas with sustained growth, rare earth product prices overall strengthened and consolidated. Centered on the annual production and operating task targets, the Company made coordinated planning and adopted comprehensive measures, strengthened comprehensive budget management, pursued cost reduction, quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in synergy, scientifically organized production and production schedules, stepped up market sales and marketing operations, deepened reform and innovation, strengthened group management and risk prevention and control, and advanced the deep integration of specialized management, lean management and 5S management with high quality. It promoted the construction of key projects, accelerated the development of new quality productive forces through management and scientific research and innovation, and provided solid support and assurance for the Company to achieve sound operating results with strong industry chain value creation capability and core competitiveness. The Company scientifically refined its production organization and operations, and production of rare earth smelting and separation products, rare earth metal products, and rare earth new materials all reached record highs for the same period; its subsidiary Inner Mongolia North Rare Earth Magnetic Materials Co., Ltd. achieved operating revenue of approximately 9.5 billion yuan in H1, up approximately 107% YoY, maintaining a growth trend for three consecutive years; its subsidiary Inner Mongolia Xi’aoke Hydrogen Storage Alloy Co., Ltd. put its first batch of 1,000 hydrogen-powered two-wheelers into official operation in Baotou City, with cumulative safe mileage reaching 170,000 kilometers, and the project’s demonstration effect was significant. The company continued to benchmark against advanced practices both internally and externally to further tap its potential, strengthened refined management, and achieved significant improvements in multiple economic and technical indicators. Based on targeted measures across business segments: the smelting and separation segment overcame new changes in production costs caused by rising prices of raw and auxiliary materials, effectively controlled cost fluctuations, and scientifically organized production and production scheduling to ensure new demand for product supply; the rare earth metals segment used the strengthening of lean production as a key lever and leveraged digital and intelligent tools to further enhance on-site process operation management, driving new breakthroughs in economic and technical indicators such as quality and material consumption ratios; the rare earth new materials and applications segment fully leveraged the advantages of newly added capacity, precisely aligned with client needs, and made new progress in using production to drive sales promotions. The company deepened coordinated linkage across the industry chain, and on the basis of ensuring stable product supply, consolidated the foundation of cooperation with downstream clients. Shenghe Resources’ H1 performance forecast released on July 10 showed that, based on preliminary calculations by the company’s finance department, net profit attributable to owners of the parent for 2026 H1 was expected to be 800 million to 930 million yuan, an increase of 423.0938 million to 553.0938 million yuan compared to the same period last year, up 112.25% to 146.75% YoY. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent for 2026 H1 after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was expected to be 790 million to 920 million yuan, an increase of 426.487 million to 556.487 million yuan compared to the same period last year, up 117.32% to 153.09% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected increase in performance for the period, Shenghe Resources stated that during the reporting period, influenced by factors such as rare earth industry policies and downstream demand, overall market demand for the company’s major rare earth products improved, and product prices and average selling prices rose significantly compared with the previous year. The company seized market opportunities, optimized its production and sales structure, strengthened management empowerment and cost control, thereby driving a substantial increase in performance. According to the semi-annual report recently released by China Rare Earth, in H1, the supply-demand pattern of the rare earth industry continued to be adjusted and optimized; driven by multiple favorable factors such as rare earth industry policies and a boost in downstream market demand, the overall market trend rose, and Pr-Nd product prices increased notably compared to the same period last year. In line with the annual work plan, the company anchored its targets and further increased pressure, rode the momentum and strove to lead, strengthened Party-building leadership, and closely focused on six key tasks—resource security, efficient operations, technological innovation, project development, deepening reform, and capability building—making targeted efforts and achieving significant phased results. Both operational performance and quality improved in tandem, all operating targets and tasks were successfully completed, and the company worked hard to create a new landscape of high-quality leapfrog development, laying the foundation for a strong start to the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. In H1 , the company achieved operating revenue of 1.647 billion yuan; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm of 237 million yuan, up 46.53% YoY; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 240 million yuan, up 55.49% YoY. The H1 performance forecast disclosed by Tianhe Magnetics on July 9 showed that, based on preliminary calculations by the finance department, net profit attributable to owners of the parent company for H1 2026 was expected to be 73 million yuan to 93 million yuan, representing an increase of 19.5448 million yuan to 39.5448 million yuan compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), up 36.56% to 73.98% YoY. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent company for H1 2026 after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was expected to be 68 million yuan to 88 million yuan, representing an increase of 32.5723 million yuan to 52.5723 million yuan compared with the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), up 91.94% to 148.39% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected increase in H1 performance, Tianhe Magnetics stated: 1、 In H1, raw material prices fluctuated at elevated levels overall. The company optimized its pricing strategy for certain existing inventory and new orders, and raised product selling prices. 2、In 2026, the company proactively seized market opportunities and carried out sales efforts around “focusing on emerging markets, deepening customer relationships, and optimizing channel layout,” achieving dual-engine growth driven by both international and China markets. Market development delivered notable results, and overall operating revenue is expected to increase by about 30% YoY, with revenue from China operations expected to increase by about 50% YoY. 3、During the reporting period, the impact of non-recurring gains and losses on net profit was expected to be about 5 million yuan, versus non-recurring gains and losses (after tax) of 18.0275 million yuan in the same period last year. The H1 performance forecast released by JL MAG Rare-Earth on July 1 showed that net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in H1 2026 was expected to be 400 million yuan to 460 million yuan, up 31.17%-50.84% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the performance change, JL MAG Rare-Earth stated in its announcement: 1、In H1 2026, the company’s management adhered to the annual operating policy of “upholding lawfulness and compliance, maintaining a customer-oriented approach, focusing on the core magnetic material business, building 20,000 mt of new capacity on schedule, actively deploying motor rotors for embodied robots, and reaching new peaks again.” Through measures such as technological innovation, organizational optimization, digital development, and lean management, the company ensured contract performance and delivery to its broad client base while achieving steady growth in operating performance. The company continued to consolidate its leading position in the new energy and energy-saving environmental protection sectors, actively expanded into emerging markets, and operating revenue was expected to be up about 30% YoY. In particular, operating revenue in the NEV and automotive parts segment was up about 30% YoY; in the robotics and industrial servo motor segment, operating revenue was up about 90% YoY, and embodied-robot motor rotor products had already been delivered in small batches. 2. During the reporting period, the impact of non-recurring gains and losses on net profit was expected to be about 32 million yuan; non-recurring gains and losses (after tax) in the same period last year were 70.9405 million yuan. 3. During this reporting period, due to A-share and H-share equity incentives and the issuance of H-share convertible bonds, related expenses such as share-based payment expenses and financial expenses totaled about 121 million yuan; there were no such expenses in the same period last year. Zhong Ke San Huan released its 2026 H1 performance bulletin on the evening of July 20, showing that in H1, the company achieved operating revenue of 36,137.721 million yuan, up 23.67% YoY; total profit of 1,028.001 million yuan, up 1.18% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm of 492.189 million yuan, up 11.88% from the same period last year; and after excluding the impact of non-recurring gains and losses such as government subsidies, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 323.035 million yuan, up 2.25% from the same period last year. Zhong Ke San Huan’s semiannual performance bulletin showed that in 2026 H1, amid increasingly intense market competition and a complex and volatile external environment, through the joint efforts of all employees, the company’s core product sales were up YoY, and cost-reduction measures such as optimizing formulation processes and reducing the usage of heavy rare earth helped lift the overall gross margin up YoY; the operations of some subsidiaries improved, achieving reduced losses or a turnaround; meanwhile, the company further improved inventory management, optimized the inventory mix of key raw materials, and impairment losses decreased YoY. Affected by the RMB’s appreciation against the US dollar and the euro, the company incurred foreign exchange losses during the reporting period, and financial expenses increased YoY, partially offsetting the profit growth. In H1 This Year, Pr-Nd oxide Rose 22.42%; Dysprosium Oxide and Terbium Oxide Both Increased In 2026 H1, the rare earth oxide market went through a roller-coaster cycle of “sharp surge—plunge—repair—re-divergence.” Pr-Nd oxide saw the most dramatic price fluctuations, while dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices rose first, then fell, and then rebounded. Reviewing the H1 price trends of Pr-Nd oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide shows that: The average price of Pr-Nd oxide on June 30 was 742,500 yuan/mt, up 136,000 yuan/mt from its average price of 606,500 yuan/mt on December 31, 2025, representing a H1 increase of 22.42%. Meanwhile, the semiannual daily average price of Pr-Nd oxide in H1 this year was 740,530.17 yuan/mt, up 309,577.18 yuan/mt YoY from its daily average of 430,952.99 yuan/mt in H1 2025, a YoY increase of 71.84%. The average price of dysprosium oxide on June 30 was 1,420 yuan/kg, up 80 yuan/kg from its average price of 1,340 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, representing a H1 increase of 5.97%. However, comparing the daily average price of dysprosium oxide in H1 this year (1,394.09 yuan/kg) with the daily average in H1 2025 (1,660.26 yuan/kg) shows that its daily average in H1 this year fell 16.03% YoY. The average price of terbium oxide on June 30 was 6,475 yuan/kg, up 500 yuan/kg from its average price of 5,975 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, representing a H1 increase of 8.37%. However, comparing the daily average price of terbium oxide in H1 this year (6,200.26 yuan/kg) with the daily average in H1 2025 (6,634.62 yuan/kg) shows that its daily average in H1 this year fell 6.55% YoY. Since entering August, the rare earth market has maintained a move sideways pattern amid a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. At present, downstream enthusiasm for inquiries and purchases is not high, market inquiry activity remains relatively limited, and the overall trading atmosphere is sluggish, with rare earth prices continuing to diverge: the Pr-Nd market was affected by the continued pullback in futures prices, leading some suppliers to slightly lower their quotes; medium-heavy rare earth prices showed strong resilience and generally remained stable. In the short term, affected by the market stalemate, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to continue to move sideways within a narrow range. In the medium and long-term, SMM expects that overall supply of Pr-Nd oxide in 2026 will still have a tight underlying basis, but with new capacity in H2 gradually coming on stream, previously idle smelting and separation capacity plans to start up, and subsequent pressure for supply-side loosening may gradually emerge. On the demand side, rising toll processing orders at metal plants in Inner Mongolia will provide some rigid demand support for Pr-Nd oxide. As the traditional September-October peak season approaches, the market holds strong expectations for downstream restocking and stockpiling; end-use demand still has a considerable number of NEV orders awaiting concentrated release in H2. The industrial robot sector’s boom is expected to continue, and demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to post a notable increase YoY within the year. While emerging tracks such as humanoid robots and the low-altitude economy are developing rapidly and offer ample long-term growth potential, they are still in the early stage of industry cultivation, and their actual incremental contribution to rare earth permanent magnets remains limited for now. Whether expectations for peak-season demand will be fulfilled and the pace at which new capacity is released will become the key variables shaping the subsequent rare earth market. Voices From Different Parties A research report released by Datong Securities on August 11 noted that rare earth spot prices pulled back in the short term, and downstream magnetic material enterprises were relatively cautious in procurement. However, amid three supply constraints—tighter mining quotas, upgraded export controls, and production cuts in scrap recycling—together with restocking demand in markets outside China, the logic of strategic revaluation remained intact. Overall, policy controls and demand from emerging industries continued to jointly drive the minor metal sector, with the commodity and financial attributes of scarce resources reinforcing each other, and the valuation-repair rally still extending. A China Securities research report stated that, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, rare earth exports in July fell markedly while the average price rose. July rare earth exports totaled 4,223.5 mt, down 29.54% YoY and 17.26% MoM, the lowest single-month level since March; cumulative exports in January–July were 34,706.3 mt, down 10% YoY. Meanwhile, the corresponding average export price was $12.34/kg, surging 103.14% YoY. The export mix tilted toward higher-value medium-heavy rare earth products; markets outside China accepted higher-priced raw material, and the tight global rare earth supply-demand pattern persisted. On the supply side, there was no growth for the time being; production at separation enterprises remained stable, and enterprises that had halted production earlier had no plans to resume operations. Downstream rigid demand support was moderate, and long-term demand expectations were improving. Rare earth prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note in the near term. A Citic Securities research report indicated that, against the backdrop of constraints from indicators combined with declining imports, rigidness in rare earth supply continued to strengthen. Affected by tighter tax policy, the operating rate of scrap recycling enterprises remained persistently low. Industry chain rigid-demand restocking, together with the approaching peak season, is expected to drive demand to recover. Emerging fields such as robotics, the low-altitude economy, and industrial motors are expected to open up longer-term demand growth space. The rare earth industry’s supply-demand pattern may remain tight, and as price increases drive performance, interim results of rare earth industry chain companies are expected to beat expectations. It continued to recommend the strategic allocation value of the rare earth industry chain. 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