For almost four weeks, the war against Iran has kept the world on edge – a conflict that leaves deep marks not only geopolitically but also economically. Volatility and uncertainty in global markets are increasing daily.

The gold price is currently causing nervousness once again. Since the start of the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, the precious metal has recorded a daily loss of 4% for the second time.

In mid-March 2026, CAAM and the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance successively released relevant data on the auto and power battery markets for February 2026. According to CAAM’s analysis, auto production and sales declined YoY under the combined impact of multiple factors, including policy transition adjustments, front-load demand release, the timing shift of the Chinese New Year holiday, insufficient willingness to consume, and a high base in the same period last year. Among them, the passenger vehicle market and NEV market both declined YoY, while the commercial vehicle market continued to improve, and auto exports grew rapidly. .......SMM compiled the relevant data on the auto market and power battery market for February 2026 for readers’ reference. Automobiles CAAM: February Auto Output and Sales Reached 1.672 Million and 1.805 Million Units, Respectively In February, auto output and sales totaled 1.672 million and 1.805 million units, down 31.7% and 23.1% MoM, and down 20.5% and 15.2% YoY, respectively. From January to February, auto output and sales totaled 4.122 million and 4.152 million units, down 9.5% and 8.8% YoY, respectively. CAAM: February NEV Sales Reached 765,000 Units; January-February NEV Output and Sales Reached 1.71 Million Units In February, NEV output and sales totaled 694,000 and 765,000 units, down 21.8% and 14.2% YoY, respectively. NEV sales accounted for 42.4% of total new vehicle sales. From January to February, NEV output and sales totaled 1.735 million and 1.71 million units, down 8.8% and 6.9% YoY, respectively. NEV sales accounted for 41.2% of total new vehicle sales. CAAM: Auto Exports Continued to Grow in February; NEV Exports up 1.1x YoY In February, NEV exports were 282,000 units, down 6.6% MoM, up 1.1x YoY ; traditional fuel vehicle exports were 391,000 units, up 2.8% MoM and up 26.2% YoY . From January to February, NEV exports were 583,000 units, up 1.1x YoY; traditional fuel vehicle exports were 769,000 units, up 22.2% YoY . Regarding the auto market in February, CAAM said that this year’s Chinese New Year fell in mid-to-late February, and the holiday was extended. As a result, there were only 16 effective working days in February, which had a certain impact on enterprise production and operations, and overall market activity declined. Judging from industry performance from January to February, auto production and sales declined YoY under the combined impact of multiple factors, including policy transition adjustments, front-load demand release, the timing shift of the Chinese New Year holiday, insufficient willingness to consume, and a high base in the same period last year. Among them, the passenger vehicle market and NEVs declined YoY, while the commercial vehicle market continued to improve and auto exports grew rapidly. This year’s government work report explicitly proposed to stimulate the endogenous momentum of household consumption and advance consumption-promoting policies in parallel, continue to amplify the effect of the policy package, further rectify “involution-style” competition, and foster a sound market ecosystem. It is believed that, as detailed local subsidy measures are fully implemented after the holiday, spring auto show sales promotions begin, and automakers roll out new models one after another, this will help boost consumer confidence, energize the auto market, and promote the healthy and stable operation of the industry. Subsequently, the CPCA also released data on the passenger vehicle market for February 2026. From February 1 to 28, retail sales in China’s passenger vehicle market reached 1.034 million units, down 25.4% YoY and down 33.1% MoM. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year totaled 2.578 million units, down 18.9% YoY. As market factors have become more complex, the pattern of “low at the beginning and high at the end” in annual sales has become more evident in recent years. Affected by disruptions such as Chinese New Year, February retail sales have seen wild YoY swings over the years, for example: 2019 (-19%), 2020 (-79%), 2021 (373%), 2022 (5%), 2023 (10%), 2024 (-21%), and 2025 (26%). Therefore, the -25.4% in 2026 was at the lower-middle end of the range of sharp fluctuations in February growth rates over the years. NEVs, retail sales in the passenger NEV market were 464,000 units in February, down 32.0% YoY; from January to February, retail sales in the passenger NEV market were 1.06 million units, down 25.7% YoY. Retail sales of conventional fuel passenger vehicles were 570,000 units in February, down 19% YoY. In February, passenger NEV producer exports were 269,000 units, up 124.7% YoY and down 7.0% MoM; from January to February, passenger NEV producer exports were 559,000 units, up 114.7% YoY, while exports of conventional fuel passenger vehicles were 290,000 units in February, up 21% YoY. NEV exports, as the scale advantages of China’s new energy vehicles become more apparent and market expansion demand grows, more and more China-made new energy brand products are going outside China, and their recognition outside China continues to improve. Among them, PHEVs accounted for 38% of NEV exports (38% in the same period last year). Although they have recently been affected by some disruptions from external countries, exports of independently developed PHEVs to developing countries have grown rapidly, with bright prospects. In February, passenger NEV exports were 269,000 units, up 124.7% YoY and down 7.0% MoM. They accounted for 48.5% of passenger vehicle exports, up 14.8 percentage points YoY; BEVs accounted for 58% of NEV exports (59% in the same period last year), and A00- and A0-class EVs, the core focus, accounted for 55% of BEV exports (56% in the same period last year). The CPCA stated that after the NEV purchase tax exemption policy, which had been implemented since September 2014, was formally phased out at the end of December 2025, the NEV market in 2026 entered a recovery period amid adjustments to tax subsidies. Some consumers brought forward purchases to 2025 to benefit from the policy, resulting in a certain pull-forward effect in January-February this year. This was an expected short-term fluctuation and does not represent the market’s long-term trend. However, with Chinese New Year falling later this year, making it a major consumption year, growth in the auto market diverged, and NEVs did not perform strongly, indicating that more policy support is still needed. Key features of the passenger vehicle market in February 2026: 1. In February, passenger vehicle producers’ daily average exports hit a record high for the month, fully demonstrating the steadily improving competitiveness of China’s automotive industry in the global market and continued robust demand outside China; 2. The retail pullback after the expiration of the vehicle purchase tax exemption was evident, but structural changes were also clear, namely a higher share of high-end NEVs and a lower share of entry-level consumption, which is conducive to the industry’s transition toward high-quality development; 3. New vehicle launches were steady in 2026, and together with the advance of anti-involution efforts curbing disorderly price cuts, NEV sales promotions stayed at 10.4% in February, remaining around 10% for six consecutive months. No vicious volume discount competition emerged, helping maintain market order; 4. The historical pattern of internal combustion engine vehicles outperforming NEVs before Chinese New Year continued again. In February, retail sales in China of internal combustion engine vehicles fell 19% YoY, while pure electric vehicle retail sales fell 35% YoY, range-extended vehicles fell 16% YoY, and PHEVs fell 31% YoY. As time goes by, consumers are expected to gradually adapt to the normalization of NEV taxation, and the NEV market is expected to return to a track of positive growth; 5. This February was still a pre-Chinese New Year consumption phase dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles. NEV penetration rate in retail sales in China was 44.9%, and export penetration rate was 48.5%, which was a relatively good performance; 6. In February 2026, exports of self-owned-brand internal combustion engine passenger vehicles reached 247,000, up 21% YoY, while exports of self-owned-brand NEVs reached 231,000, up 110% YoY. NEVs accounted for 48.4% of self-owned-brand exports. In particular, the high growth of NEV exports in Europe, Southeast Asia, and other regions marked the expanding influence of China’s NEV brands in the international market, laying a solid foundation for future export growth. Power Battery In February, China’s cumulative sales of power and ESS batteries reached 113.2 Gwh, up 25.7% YoY In February, China’s sales of power and ESS batteries reached 113.2 Gwh, down 23.9% MoM, up 25.7% YoY . Of this, power battery sales were 74.5 Gwh, accounting for 65.9% of total sales, down 27.4% MoM and up 11.4% YoY; ESS battery sales were 38.6 Gwh, accounting for 34.1% of total sales, down 16.2% MoM and up 67.3% YoY. From January to February, China’s cumulative sales of power and ESS batteries were 262 Gwh, up 53.8% YoY . Of this, cumulative power battery sales were 177.2 Gwh, accounting for 67.6% of total sales and up 36.5% YoY; cumulative ESS battery sales were 84.8 Gwh, accounting for 32.4% of total sales and up 108.9% YoY. From January to February, cumulative power battery installations were 68.3 Gwh, with LFP installations accounting for 77.9% In February, China’s power battery installations were 26.3 Gwh, down 37.4% MoM and down 24.6% YoY. Of this, ternary battery installations were 5.7 Gwh, accounting for 21.7% of total installations, down 39.1% MoM and down 11.4% YoY; LFP battery installations were 20.6 Gwh, accounting for 78.3% of total installations, down 36.9% MoM and down 27.5% YoY. From January to February, cumulative power battery installations in China were 68.3 Gwh, down 7.2% YoY. Of this, cumulative ternary battery installations were 15.1 Gwh, accounting for 22.1% of total installations and up 0.6% YoY; cumulative LFP battery installations were 53.3 Gwh, accounting for 77.9% of total installations and down 9.2% YoY. More Than 60% of A/H-Share Automakers Achieved YoY Growth, March Auto Market Production and Sales Will See Rapid MoM Growth Earlier, CLS compiled the January-February sales performance of 14 A/H-share listed automakers, of which 9 achieved YoY growth, accounting for more than 60%, and 3 automakers recorded February sales outside China exceeding those in the Chinese market. Among emerging EV makers, Leap Motor still firmly held the top spot in deliveries, with 28,067 units delivered in February, up 10.99% YoY; cumulative deliveries in 2026 reached 60,126 units, up 19.16% YoY. While releasing its February delivery figures, Leap Motor said its March car purchase incentives had gone live, with discounts of up to 46,000 yuan for in-stock vehicles. Li Auto delivered 26,421 units in February, up 0.6% YoY. Cumulative deliveries in 2026 reached 54,089 units, down 3.74% YoY. As of February 28, 2026, Li Auto’s historical cumulative deliveries totaled 1.594 million units. Li Auto said that as of February 28, 2026, it had 539 retail centers nationwide, covering 160 cities; 548 after-sales repair centers and authorized service centers, covering 223 cities. Li Auto had put into use 4,054 Li Auto supercharging stations nationwide, with 22,447 charging piles. NIO delivered 20,797 new vehicles in February, up 57.65% YoY. Cumulative deliveries in the first two months of 2026 reached 47,979 units, up 77.34% YoY. To date, NIO has delivered a total of 1,045,571 new vehicles. At 22:33:18 on February 6, NIO completed its 100 millionth battery swap; during the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday, NIO provided a cumulative 2,073,500 battery swapping services, with daily average services up 29.4% YoY versus the Chinese New Year holiday last year. From February 15 to February 23, NIO Energy's cumulative highway charging and battery swapping volume exceeded 25.28 million kWh, accounting for 15% of the national highway charging and battery swapping total. Starting from February 18 (the second day of the Chinese New Year), NIO battery swapping set new single-day service records for five consecutive days. XPeng Motors delivered a total of 15,256 new vehicles in February, bringing cumulative deliveries in the first two months of 2026 to 35,267 units, down 42% YoY. In February, the all-new XPeng G6 launched in the UK, with the entire lineup equipped as standard with an 800V high-voltage platform and a new-generation LFP battery, while introducing an all-wheel-drive performance black edition for the first time. The XPeng G6 has now been exported to more than 40 countries and regions worldwide, covering Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America, and continues to win favour among an increasing number of overseas consumers. As for Xiaomi Auto, its deliveries exceeded 20,000 units in February, while January deliveries exceeded 39,000 units, bringing cumulative deliveries in the first two months of 2026 to 59,000 units. Notably, the Xiaomi YU7 continued to rank first in sales in February and has now held the top spot for six consecutive months. In February 2026, Xiaomi YU7 sales reached 20,196 units, ranking among the top three passenger vehicle models nationwide for the month. As for BYD, China's "EV king," February sales reached 190,190 units, retaining its position as China's NEV sales champion. In January-February 2026, BYD Group's cumulative sales reached 400,241 units, while cumulative overseas sales of passenger vehicles and pickups totaled 200,160 units, and cumulative new energy vehicle sales exceeded 15.5 million units. On March 5, BYD unveiled the second-generation blade battery. Wang Chuanfu, Chairman of BYD Group, said that the second-generation blade battery can charge from 10% to 70% in 5 minutes, and from 10% to 97% in just 9 minutes. The second-generation blade battery offers 5% higher battery energy density than the first-generation blade battery. Car models equipped with the second-generation blade battery include the Yangwang U7, Denza N9, Fangchengbao Tai 3, Seal 07, Datang, Sea Lion 06, Song Ultra, Fangchengbao Tai 7, Denza Z9GT, and Yangwang U8L, among which the Denza Z9GT has a driving range of 1,036 km. Regarding auto industry sales in February 2026, Cailian Press quoted an executive at a new carmaker as saying, "Affected by the longest-ever nine-day Chinese New Year holiday in February, the auto industry's effective production and sales period was significantly shortened, making it a typical off-season for auto consumption. Combined with the phased reduction in the vehicle purchase tax incentive, the auto industry as a whole remained subdued and full of challenges.” Looking ahead to the passenger vehicle market in March, the CPCA said that March this year had 22 working days, one more than the 21 working days in March 2025. As industries across the board rapidly returned to normal operations after the Chinese New Year holiday, production and sales growth in March is expected to rise sharply MoM. The post-Chinese New Year period is an important window for new product launches, and many producers rolled out a large number of new vehicles. Driven by national pro-consumption policies, many provinces and cities introduced corresponding measures to stimulate consumption, while the full resumption of offline activities such as auto shows will also accelerate the return of foot traffic. As prices of lithium carbonate, copper, and other materials have remained high recently, coupled with the continued anti-involution trend, producers are expected to launch relatively few new energy car models offering better-than-expected value for money, leaving limited potential for an explosive rebound in auto consumption. Although the recent Middle East crisis caused some transportation disruptions, China’s complete vehicle enterprises shifted from “chartering vessels and waiting for shipping space” to “building ships and controlling transport,” with rapid expansion of their own fleets, greater autonomy and control over shipping capacity, and significant optimization in cost and efficiency. Our sales support capabilities are stronger than those of other international automakers, and if the crisis does not last long, export transportation will not be significantly affected. As the national trade-in policy is fully implemented, the consumer potential for replacement and upgrade purchases will be gradually released, helping the auto market strengthen steadily in March. In 2026, policy subsidies and structural optimization in the auto industry will become key factors in leveraging overall market prosperity and accelerating the premiumization of new energy vehicles. Although the 2026 consumer goods trade-in subsidy fund of 250 billion yuan was down 50 billion yuan from 2025, the 100 billion yuan in special fiscal and financial coordinated funding to boost domestic demand can reduce financing costs for residents’ car purchases and automakers through loan interest subsidies and financing guarantees, effectively stimulating endogenous consumption momentum and expanding new room for domestic demand. Huachuang Securities pointed out that since March, the passenger vehicle retail market has begun to improve, with foot traffic and transactions gradually recovering, mainly due to the digestion of deferred wait-and-see demand from last year and the launch of new models. Attention should be paid to market acceptance of new vehicles after price increases and to dynamic adjustments by automakers. Although the subsidy amount per vehicle declined this year, coverage may expand. Combined with the low base in H2 last year, industry retail sales growth in H2 is expected to turn positive, with full-year retail growth expected at 1%, including +5% for EVs. Export data for January-February exceeded expectations, and full-year exports are expected to surpass 7.1 million units, boosting wholesale growth by about 3%, including +8% for EVs. In February, due to weaker demand during the Chinese New Year, the new energy penetration rate remained firm at 48%. Current total channel inventory is about 3.4 million units, an increase of about 600,000 units compared to the same period last year. Rising Prices of Memory Chips and Precious Metals, Some Automakers Warn of Cost Pressure It is worth noting that as memory chip and precious metal prices have fluctuated upward recently, some automakers in the market have begun trying to respond to supply chain cost pressure through “price increases.”Monitoring data from TrendForce showed that since H2 2025, prices of DDR4 memory used in automotive-grade DRAM have risen by more than 150% cumulatively, while DDR5 memory prices have surged by 300%. Data provided by UBS showed that over the past three months, automotive-grade DRAM prices as a whole increased by 180%. According to incomplete statistics, since the start of 2026, multiple automakers, including NIO, Li Auto, VOYAH, Xiaomi, and Zeekr, have issued warnings or been reported to be facing cost challenges brought by chip price increases. In a livestream, Deepal Chairman Deng Chenghao said that current production costs have risen by several thousand yuan compared with earlier levels, with the pressure mainly coming from wild swings in power battery and in-vehicle memory chip prices; Li Auto Vice President of Supply Chain Meng Qingpeng even warned that the supply fulfillment rate for automotive memory chips in 2026 may be less than 50%; Xiaomi Chairman Lei Jun mentioned in a livestream in January that the new Xiaomi SU7 is facing memory cost pressure that is jumping quarter by quarter, with memory cost per vehicle expected to increase by several thousand yuan. However, according to the latest news from NIO on March 11, NIO founder and chairman Li Bin said that rising prices of memory and other raw materials have impacted the cost of high-end new energy car models by 3,000 to 5,000 yuan respectively, with the total impact nearing 10,000 yuan. At present, NIO’s existing system can support the pressure brought by rising costs, and the company currently has no plan to adjust prices. At the Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings call, Li Auto President Ma Donghui said that in response to the impact brought by the current increase in parts prices, Li Auto will strengthen coordination with supply partners and sign long-term LTA agreements with relevant suppliers to lock in prices or allocations in advance. If there is a price adjustment mechanism, it will be strictly implemented in accordance with the contract; where there is no price adjustment mechanism, the company will also share costs with suppliers. It will absorb as much of the pressure from external price increases internally as possible, including through its self-developed range extender and self-developed chips. “Li Auto will comprehensively consider parts costs and user value in determining the pricing of new car models, and is confident that through a series of measures it can keep the impact of raw materials within a reasonable range,” Ma Donghui said. UBS warned that chip shortages may begin disrupting global auto production as early as Q2 this year, with EV manufacturers that are highly dependent on advanced chips expected to be affected the most.

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,938/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead prices moved steadily around the daily average line, briefly touching a high of $1,638.5/mt. Entering the European session, bulls and bears were evenly matched, and LME lead prices continued to fluctuate rangebound around the daily average line. Thereafter, bears took the lead, and LME lead fluctuated downward. Around midnight, LME lead prices plunged to a low of $1,890/mt, and finally closed at $1,903/mt, down $32.5/mt, or 1.68%. Trading volume fell to 7,363 lots, while open interest increased by 2,494 lots to 176,000 lots. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,550 yuan/mt. It edged up in early trading, touched a high of 16,565 yuan/mt, and then slipped slightly. Thereafter, amid a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, SHFE lead prices fluctuated rangebound within the 16,385-16,465 yuan/mt range, and closed at 16,395 yuan/mt near the session low. It posted a long bearish candlestick, down 160 yuan/mt, or 0.97%. Trading volume fell to 28,599 lots, while open interest increased by 2,715 lots to 66,396 lots. On the macro front: 1. US GDP for Q4 last year was revised down to only 0.7%, while core PCE inflation rose 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY. 2. Sources said neither the US nor Iran intended to agree to a ceasefire, and the conflict in the Middle East may become prolonged. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu released a video to prove he was still "alive" and said operations against Iran would continue. The Israeli military said its military operations against Iran would last at least another three weeks. Iran's foreign minister said Iran had never requested a ceasefire or negotiations. A senior Iranian commander said there were two conditions for ending the war: Iran must recover all losses and the US must leave the Persian Gulf. 3. International Energy Agency: Record strategic crude oil reserves will be released immediately to the Asian market, while Europe and the US will need to wait until month-end. 4. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki: Preparations have been made to take all necessary exchange-rate measures. 5. State Council executive meeting: It discussed and approved the Work Division Plan for the State Council's Key Tasks in 2026 and studied the establishment of a negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies. 6. The central bank: Aggregate social financing added up to 9.6 trillion yuan in the first two months, 31.62 billion yuan more than the same period last year; M2 balance at the end of February rose 9% YoY. 7. The National Financial Regulatory Administration, together with the People's Bank of China, formulated the Provisions on Disclosure of Comprehensive Financing Costs for Personal Loan Business. 8. China Securities Regulatory Commission: It will closely track changes in international financial markets and the internal and external environment, and strengthen coordinated monitoring of at home and abroad and futures and spot markets. 9. China-US economic and trade consultations were held in France from March 14 to March 17. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers quoted in line with market conditions. In Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, suppliers mostly waited for delivery, with few quotations. Meanwhile, quotations for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site diverged. Suppliers in the north actively made shipments at discounts, while in south China, due to limited circulating cargoes, some suppliers held prices firm and shipped at premiums. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. In addition, secondary lead smelters were mostly cutting or suspending production due to losses, leaving fewer circulating cargoes in the market. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises bought the dip on demand, and due to the price difference between primary lead and secondary lead, rigid demand from downstream enterprises was more inclined toward primary lead. Inventory: As of March 13, LME lead registered warrants fell 0.18% to 279,125 mt. As of March 12, total SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions continued to increase. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Current lead prices were still generally moving in a weak rangebound pattern, lacking a clear one-way trend. The primary lead spot market showed a clear north-south divergence, with northern suppliers shipping at discounts and some southern cargoes staying tight, supporting firm offers. Secondary lead smelters cut or suspended production due to losses, and tighter circulating cargoes provided some price support, but downstream procurement remained cautious and mainly driven by rigid demand, with weak purchase willingness. As the price spread between primary lead and secondary lead narrowed, some demand shifted to primary lead, while transactions in secondary lead remained sluggish. Overall, lead prices are unlikely to see a notable rebound in the short term and will likely maintain rangebound consolidation. Further attention should be paid to inventory changes and smelter production conditions.

The iron ore market in 2025 did not experience the widespread collapse predicted by some pessimistic forecasts. Instead, it followed an "N-shaped" trend characterized by "higher lows and capped highs." Overall, the price volatility of iron ore in 2025 was significantly narrower compared to the previous two years.

According to an announcement, CATL has reviewed and passed the "Proposal on the Intended Registration and Issuance of Bonds." To meet the company's production, operational, and business development needs, optimize its debt structure, and reduce financing costs, CATL plans to register and issue bonds not exceeding 10 billion yuan (including 10 billion yuan).

Today, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the financial data for May. As of month-end May 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, up 7.9% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% YoY. In the first five months, the net cash injection was 306.4 billion yuan. In terms of social financing, the outstanding social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan as of month-end May 2025, up 8.7% YoY. From January to May, the incremental social financing scale was 18.63 trillion yuan, with a YoY increase of 3.83 trillion yuan. In May alone, the incremental social financing scale was 2.29 trillion yuan, with a YoY increase of 224.7 billion yuan. "The rapid growth in social financing scale is mainly driven by direct financing such as government bonds and corporate bonds," an authoritative expert explained to a reporter from Cailian Press. Among them, there has been a significant change in corporate bond financing. "Since Q2, the overall cost of corporate bond issuance has shown a downward trend, remaining at a low level. In May, the average yield to maturity of 5-year AAA-rated corporate bonds was 1.97%, further declining from the already low level in April. Against the backdrop of low interest rates, enterprises have increased their bond financing efforts, which helps reduce overall financing costs." In addition, a bank account manager also reflected to a reporter from Cailian Press that bank customers are now generally more concerned about interest rate adjustments. In May, the PBOC lowered the policy interest rate, and the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which serves as the benchmark for loan market pricing, also declined accordingly. Many enterprises found the interest rates more favorable, and their willingness to withdraw funds increased significantly. "Liquid Money" Growth Accelerates, Personal Mortgage Loan Disbursements Increase Among the financial data for May, there was also a notable change in the growth rate of M1. As of month-end May, M1 was up 2.3% YoY. In response, an authoritative expert frankly told a reporter from Cailian Press that currently, the M1 statistical scope includes currency in circulation (M0), current deposits of units and individuals, and customer reserves of non-bank payment institutions (such as WeChat Wallet and Alipay balances). Compared with time deposits in bank accounts, these are considered "liquid money" that is more convenient for payment transactions. In May, the growth rate of this "liquid money" accelerated significantly. In the view of the authoritative expert, the accelerated growth of "liquid money" reflects that the recent package of financial support measures has effectively boosted market confidence, with signs of recovery and improvement in economic activities such as investment and consumption. Another indicator that also proves the change in the heat of economic activities is personal loans. Data shows that a banker reflected to a reporter from Cailian Press that with the continued recovery of the local real estate market transactions, personal mortgage loan disbursements have increased. The Substitution Effect of Bonds on Loans Continues to Manifest Regarding the loan data that the market is concerned about, an authoritative expert told a reporter from Cailian Press that nearly 90% of the social financing scale consists of bonds and loans. Although there are differences in their applicable scenarios, to a certain extent, they can substitute and complement each other, jointly creating a favorable financial aggregate environment for stable economic growth. In fact, recently, the substitution effect of bonds for loans has also been quite evident. In response, experts have interpreted this as follows: On the one hand, the issuance of special refinancing bonds to repay bank loans has kept loan growth at around 8% after adjusting for the relevant impacts. "Special refinancing bonds issued for debt resolution exceeded 2 trillion yuan in Q4 last year, and over 1.6 trillion yuan have been issued since the beginning of this year. Preliminary estimates from market surveys suggest that the corresponding loans replaced amount to approximately 2.3 trillion yuan, with loan growth remaining at around 8% at the end of May after adjustment. The aforementioned experts frankly stated that in the short term, the debt replacement of financing platforms to repay bank loans may affect the total credit volume. However, in the long term, it helps mitigate local debt risks, freeing up more local fiscal resources to benefit people's livelihoods, promote development, and enhance the momentum of economic growth. On the other hand, government bonds substitute for bank loans. Some market experts told a Caixin reporter that there is a certain overlap in the investment directions of some government bonds and bank loans. For instance, in infrastructure projects, both special bonds and bank loans can serve as funding sources. In projects involving the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, in addition to bank loans providing support, special bonds have recently been added to the policy toolkit and are currently being gradually implemented. Several banks in an eastern province told a Caixin reporter that since the beginning of this year, fiscal policies have become more proactive, with an increase in the issuance of local government bonds. Local governments and related enterprises are more inclined to use special bonds to meet the funding needs of project construction, which has a certain substitution effect on bank loans. Data shows that among the sources of fixed asset investment funds from January to April this year, national budgetary funds, including government bonds, grew by 16.7% YoY, significantly higher than the YoY growth rates of self-raised funds (3.9%), domestic loans (2.8%), and other funding sources (-4.2%). In addition, corporate bonds have also substituted for bank loans to some extent. Authoritative experts analyzed to a Caixin reporter that, in addition to interest rate impacts, some trending and institutional factors are also influencing enterprises' choices of financing methods. A series of supportive policies have been continuously introduced in recent years, facilitating smoother access for enterprises to issue bonds, particularly showing more positive changes in bond financing for private and technology innovation enterprises. In early May this year, the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued multiple measures to support the issuance of technology innovation bonds. As these measures gradually take effect, enterprises will find it more convenient to issue technology innovation bonds for financing. "Therefore, against the backdrop of increasingly diversified financing channels and accelerated development of direct financing, the scale of social financing is a more comprehensive measure of financial support than loans alone."Authoritative experts have interpreted it as follows.

Today, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that it will conduct 400 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations on June 16, marking the second announcement of such operations by the PBOC this month. Earlier in June, the PBOC had announced the conduct of 1 trillion yuan of 3-month outright reverse repo operations. Considering that a total of 1.2 trillion yuan of outright reverse repos will mature throughout June, the PBOC's two announcements imply a net injection of funds for the entire month. Industry insiders told a Caixin reporter that June is a critical period for semi-annual liquidity assessments, coupled with factors such as the large-scale maturity of interbank negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs), leading to a higher demand for liquidity from financial institutions throughout the month. The PBOC's provision of medium-term funding support reflects its care for the market. "Building on the approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity released through RRR cuts by the PBOC in May, the increase in outright reverse repo operations in June, continuing to boost medium-term liquidity injections, will help maintain ample liquidity in the banking system and control fluctuations in the funding market amid the continuous large-scale issuance of government bonds and the 'peak' period of interbank NCD maturities in recent months," an industry source told Caixin. PBOC Announces Second Round of Operations This Month, Continuing to Boost Medium-Term Liquidity Injections To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, the PBOC first announced on June 5 and then conducted 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repo operations on June 6. Just a week later, the PBOC announced its second round of operations today. Today, the PBOC announced that it will conduct 400 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations on June 16 through fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendering, and multiple-price bidding, with a tenor of 6 months (182 days). Data shows that 500 billion yuan of 3-month and 700 billion yuan of 6-month outright reverse repos will mature in June, respectively, implying a net injection of 200 billion yuan of outright reverse repos by the PBOC for the entire month as of June 16. "Building on the approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity released through RRR cuts by the PBOC in May, the increase in outright reverse repo operations in June, continuing to boost medium-term liquidity injections, will, on the one hand, help maintain ample liquidity in the banking system and control fluctuations in the funding market amid the continuous large-scale issuance of government bonds and the 'peak' period of interbank NCD maturities in recent months," Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, told a Caixin reporter. Why did the PBOC choose to announce twice in June to manage market expectations? It may be related to June being a traditional critical period for liquidity management, with the funding market facing a "major test" amid multiple pressures. Haitong Asset Management pointed out that the concentrated impact of the peak maturity of interbank NCDs, with a total maturity of over 4 trillion yuan in June, has widened the short-term funding gap for banks. Meanwhile, financial institutions also need to cope with the "regular challenge" of quarter-end liquidity assessments, coupled with a surge in funding demand driven by the accelerated issuance of government bonds, further highlighting the supply-demand imbalance in the funding market. Everbright Securities Finance stated that, considering the seasonal trend, short-term funding rates in June have generally shown a pattern of "pulling back at the beginning of the month and rising in the latter part" in recent years. Given that the end of June coincides with semi-annual financial reports and assessments, liquidity management will be arranged in advance, and the pressure is not expected to last until the last two days of the month. "The intensity and pace of loan issuance squeezing the excess reserve ratio, thereby affecting the willingness of national banks to lend funds; it is estimated that the net financing scale of government bonds in June will still be around 1 trillion yuan, which may cause temporary disruptions; in addition, there will be a concentration of NCD maturities in late June, along with a surge in credit, making the MLF issuance volume worth watching," pointed out Wang Yifeng, Chief Analyst of Everbright Securities' Financial Industry. Wang Qing noted that this move also signals the continuous strengthening of quantitative monetary policy tools, which helps to promote the broadening of credit and enhance countercyclical regulation. "The disclosure of outright reverse repo operations from the end of the month to an earlier release indicates an increase in the transparency of monetary policy operations, which can more effectively guide and stabilize market expectations." In June, the maturity of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) is expected to transition smoothly with no significant changes in volume or price. Looking ahead to June, the large amount of maturing NCDs is one of the main disruptive factors, but the market expects a smooth transition in terms of liquidity. Data shows that the expected maturity of NCDs in June will reach 4.2 trillion yuan, setting a record for the highest single-month figure. Among these, the early and mid-month periods are the concentrated maturity points, with about 920 billion yuan and 1.95 trillion yuan of NCDs due to mature, respectively. Wang Yifeng believes that under the current circumstances, the primary factor disrupting the interest rate on NCDs in June is the large volume of maturities, with 4.2 trillion yuan due to mature in the month, an increase of 1.7 trillion yuan compared to May, reaching a peak for monthly maturities in recent years, increasing the pressure on banks to roll over. However, there are offsetting factors that may result in the renewal volume of NCDs in June being less than the maturing volume. Although NCDs face significant maturity pressure in June, constrained by multiple factors, the overall volume and price levels are not expected to change significantly from previous levels. CITIC Securities Fixed Income Department stated that, looking ahead to June, the disturbance to liquidity from fiscal factors is expected to weaken marginally. Considering the high credit issuance scale typically seen in June due to the bank's semi-annual assessment, coupled with the potential pressure on the liability side after the implementation of a new round of deposit rate cuts, it may be difficult for the liquidity to achieve a spontaneous balance. It is anticipated that the central bank will further inject medium and long-term liquidity through outright reverse repo operations and MLF, and the overall liquidity in June is expected to maintain a balanced supply and demand pattern, with the DR007 interest rate center fluctuating at lows slightly above the policy rate level. "In the future, the central bank will also comprehensively utilize medium- and short-term liquidity management tools such as pledged reverse repo operations, Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), and outright reverse repo operations to maintain abundant liquidity in the banking system. This is also a crucial step in enhancing the accessibility of credit for enterprises and residents and reducing financing costs for the real economy at present," said Wang Qing.

According to preliminary statistics from the People's Bank of China, China's aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE) increased by 18.63 trillion yuan from January to May, compared to 16.3429 trillion yuan from January to April. New RMB loans reached 10.68 trillion yuan from January to May, lower than the estimated 10.9597 trillion yuan but higher than the 10.0597 trillion yuan from January to April. As of the end of May, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, up 7.9% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, up 12.1% YoY. Net cash injection in the first five months amounted to 306.4 billion yuan. Financial Statistics Report for May 2025 I. Broad Money Grew by 7.9% As of the end of May, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, up 7.9% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, up 12.1% YoY. Net cash injection in the first five months amounted to 306.4 billion yuan. II. RMB Loans Increased by 10.68 Trillion Yuan in the First Five Months As of the end of May, the balance of RMB and foreign currency loans was 270.2 trillion yuan, up 6.7% YoY. The balance of RMB loans was 266.32 trillion yuan, up 7.1% YoY. RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan in the first five months. By sector, household loans increased by 572.4 billion yuan, including a decrease of 262.4 billion yuan in short-term loans and an increase of 834.7 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans. Loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 9.8 trillion yuan, including an increase of 3.14 trillion yuan in short-term loans, 6.16 trillion yuan in medium and long-term loans, and 364.5 billion yuan in bill financing. Loans to non-banking financial institutions increased by 135.7 billion yuan. As of the end of May, the balance of foreign currency loans was $539.4 billion, down 16.3% YoY. Foreign currency loans decreased by $2.7 billion in the first five months. III. RMB Deposits Increased by 14.73 Trillion Yuan in the First Five Months As of the end of May, the balance of RMB and foreign currency deposits was 324.08 trillion yuan, up 8.3% YoY. The balance of RMB deposits was 316.96 trillion yuan, up 8.1% YoY. RMB deposits increased by 14.73 trillion yuan in the first five months. Specifically, household deposits increased by 8.3 trillion yuan, non-financial corporate deposits decreased by 7.3 billion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 2.07 trillion yuan, and deposits of non-banking financial institutions increased by 3.07 trillion yuan. As of the end of May, the balance of foreign currency deposits was $990.1 billion, up 19% YoY. Foreign currency deposits increased by $137.2 billion in the first five months. IV. The Monthly Weighted Average Interbank Offered Rate and Pledged Bond Repo Rate in the RMB Interbank Market in May Were 1.55% and 1.56%, Respectively In May, the total turnover in the RMB interbank market through interbank lending, cash bonds, and repos was 167.2 trillion yuan, with a daily average turnover of 8.8 trillion yuan, up 14.9% YoY. Among them, the daily average turnover of interbank lending decreased by 8.6% YoY, the daily average turnover of cash bonds increased by 5% YoY, and the daily average turnover of pledged repo increased by 19.1% YoY. In May, the weighted average interest rate of interbank lending was 1.55%, which was 0.18 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month and the same period last year, respectively. The weighted average interest rate of pledged repo was 1.56%, which was 0.16 percentage points and 0.26 percentage points lower than the previous month and the same period last year, respectively. V. In May, the cross-border RMB settlement amount under current accounts was RMB 13.1 trillion, and the cross-border RMB settlement amount under direct investment was RMB 6.1 trillion. In May, the cross-border RMB settlement amount under current accounts was RMB 13.1 trillion, including RMB 9.9 trillion for trade in goods, RMB 3.2 trillion for trade in services, and other current accounts; the cross-border RMB settlement amount under direct investment was RMB 6.1 trillion, including RMB 2 trillion for outward direct investment and RMB 4.1 trillion for foreign direct investment. Report on Statistical Data of the Stock of Social Financing Scale in May 2025 Preliminary statistics showed that the cumulative increment of the social financing scale in the first five months of 2025 was RMB 186.3 trillion, an increase of RMB 38.3 trillion compared with the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by RMB 103.8 trillion, up RMB 112.3 billion YoY; foreign currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, decreased by RMB 96.3 billion, with a larger decrease of RMB 169 billion YoY; entrusted loans decreased by RMB 11.3 billion, with a smaller decrease of RMB 80.2 billion YoY; trust loans increased by RMB 62.7 billion, with a smaller increase of RMB 172.3 billion YoY; unaccepted bankers' acceptances increased by RMB 134.3 billion, up RMB 166.2 billion YoY; net corporate bond financing was RMB 908.7 billion, a decrease of RMB 288.4 billion YoY; net government bond financing was RMB 6.31 trillion, up RMB 3.81 trillion YoY; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was RMB 150.4 billion, up RMB 44.4 billion YoY. Report on Statistical Data of the Stock of Social Financing Scale in May 2025 Preliminary statistics showed that the stock of the social financing scale was RMB 426.16 trillion at the end of May 2025, up 8.7% YoY. Among them, the balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy was RMB 262.86 trillion, up 7% YoY; the balance of foreign currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, was RMB 1.19 trillion, down 31.5% YoY; the balance of entrusted loans was RMB 11.22 trillion, up 0.4% YoY; the balance of trust loans was RMB 4.36 trillion, up 5.4% YoY; the balance of unaccepted bankers' acceptances was RMB 2.27 trillion, down 7.4% YoY; the balance of corporate bonds was RMB 32.91 trillion, up 3.4% YoY; the balance of government bonds was RMB 87.39 trillion, up 20.9% YoY; and the balance of domestic equity of non-financial enterprises was RMB 11.87 trillion, up 2.9% YoY. In terms of structure, the balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy accounted for 61.7% of the outstanding social financing stock in the same period at the end of May, down 1 percentage point YoY; the balance of foreign currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, accounted for 0.3%, down 0.1 percentage point YoY; the balance of entrusted loans accounted for 2.6%, down 0.3 percentage point YoY; the balance of trust loans accounted for 1%, down 0.1 percentage point YoY; the balance of undiscounted bankers' acceptances accounted for 0.5%, down 0.1 percentage point YoY; the balance of corporate bonds accounted for 7.7%, down 0.4 percentage point YoY; the balance of government bonds accounted for 20.5%, up 2.1 percentage points YoY; and the balance of domestic stocks of non-financial enterprises accounted for 2.8%, down 0.1 percentage point YoY. Recommended readings: 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 16.34 trillion yuan, new loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan from January to April, M2 increased by 8% YoY in April 》Breakdown of April's financial data: Government and corporate bonds boost social financing, with a trending shift in credit structure 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 15.18 trillion yuan in Q1, new RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan, M2 increased by 7% YoY in March 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 9.29 trillion yuan, new RMB loans increased by 6.14 trillion yuan in the first two months, M2 increased by 7% YoY in February 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 7.06 trillion yuan in January, with "full-throttle" credit extension, M2 increased by 7% YoY in January 》PBOC: Total social financing increased by 32.26 trillion yuan in 2024, M2 increased by 7.3% YoY in December 》PBOC makes a major announcement! Regarding macroeconomic policies and support for the capital market... 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 29.4 trillion yuan, new loans increased by 17.1 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, M2 increased by 7.1% YoY in November 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 27.06 trillion yuan in the first 10 months, M2 increased by 7.5% YoY in October 》Supportive tools for the capital market take effect, with M1 and M2 growth rates stabilizing and rebounding, and recent macroeconomic control strategies undergoing adaptive changes 》September's financial data released: Factors such as an increase in securities clients' margins drove a rebound in M2 growth, with overall stable social financing growth 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 21.9 trillion yuan in the first eight months, M2 increased by 6.3% YoY in August 》PBOC: Maintaining price stability and promoting a mild rebound in prices are important considerations for monetary policy 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 18.87 trillion yuan, RMB loans increased by 13.53 trillion yuan in the first seven months 》August's financial data released: Is there still "water squeezing" in financial data?Expert Interpretations Are Here! 》PBOC: In H1, the incremental social financing was RMB 18.1 trillion, with RMB 13.27 trillion increase in RMB loans; M2 grew 6.2% YoY in June 》June's financial data released: How to interpret the continued slowdown in the growth rate of some indicators? Authoritative experts discuss the "side effects" of the "scale complex" in total financial aggregates 》PBOC: In the first five months, the cumulative increase in social financing was RMB 14.8 trillion, with RMB 11.14 trillion increase in RMB loans; M2 grew 7% YoY in May 》Why are May's financial data worth noting, given the optimization of social financing structure and the possible underestimation of M1 growth rate? 》PBOC: In the first four months, the cumulative increase in social financing was RMB 12.73 trillion, with RMB 10.19 trillion increase in RMB loans; M2 grew 7.2% YoY in April 》In Q1, new social financing was RMB 12.93 trillion, with RMB 9.46 trillion increase in new RMB loans; M2 grew 8.3% YoY in March 》What impact did the steady growth of social financing, the moderate decline in financing costs, and the regulation of idle capital circulation and manual interest adjustments have on April's financial data? 》Latest financial data released: M2 and the stock of social financing grew 8.7% and 9.0% YoY, respectively, at the end of February. Let's see how authoritative experts interpret it! 》In the first two months, social financing and new RMB loans reached the second-highest levels for the same period in history, with M2 growing 8.7% YoY in February 》In January 2024, new social financing was RMB 6.5 trillion, with RMB 4.92 trillion increase in new loans; M2 grew 8.7% YoY 》PBOC: In December, the incremental social financing was RMB 1.94 trillion, with RMB 1.17 trillion increase in new RMB loans; M2 grew 9.7% YoY 》PBOC: In November, the incremental social financing was RMB 2.45 trillion, with RMB 1.09 trillion increase in new RMB loans; M2 grew 10% YoY 》November's financial data released: The scale of social financing continued to increase YoY, and the credit support for the real economy remained stable 》Will trillion-yuan government bonds "prop up" October's monetary and credit data? The market expects overall social financing to be strong but credit to be weak, with RRR cut expectations still brewing 》PBOC: In October, the incremental social financing was RMB 1.85 trillion, with RMB 738.4 billion increase in new RMB loans; M2 grew 10.3% YoY 》PBOC: In September, the incremental social financing was RMB 4.12 trillion, with RMB 2.31 trillion increase in new RMB loans; M2 grew 10.3% YoY 》PBOC makes a significant statement! Discussing the Sino-US interest rate spread, September's financial data, mortgage rates on existing home loans, and more... 》General Administration of Customs: China's imports and exports showed positive growth in the first three quarters, with September's monthly figure hitting a new high for the year 》PPI and CPI data have improved for three consecutive months. Experts: The improvement in prices is further confirmed, and it is expected that the YoY improvement trend in PPI will continue 》Interpretation by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In September, CPI operated steadily, PPI's YoY decline narrowed for three consecutive months, and both increased MoM 》In September, the export value of mobile phones doubled MoM, and the YoY growth rate of automobile exports continued to lead 》PBOC: In August, the incremental social financing was RMB 3.12 trillion, with RMB 1.36 trillion increase in new RMB loans; M2 grew 10.6% YoY 》PBOC: Act decisively when the time is right to resolutely guard against the risk of excessive exchange rate fluctuations!The US dollar plunged against the offshore Chinese yuan 》PBOC: In August, the total social financing (TSF) was 528.2 billion yuan, and new yuan-denominated loans reached 345.9 billion yuan. M2 was up 10.7% YoY 》PBOC: In June, TSF and new yuan-denominated loans significantly exceeded expectations. M2 was up 11.3% YoY 》PBOC: In May, the increase in TSF was 1.56 trillion yuan, 331.2 billion yuan more than the previous month 》PBOC: In May, yuan-denominated loans increased by 1.36 trillion yuan, compared to the previous value of 718.8 billion yuan 》PBOC: In May, yuan-denominated deposits increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.58 trillion yuan 》PBOC: In April, the increase in TSF was 1.22 trillion yuan, and new yuan-denominated loans reached 718.8 billion yuan. M2 was up 12.4% YoY 》PBOC: In Q1, yuan-denominated deposits increased by 15.39 trillion yuan, and loans increased by 10.6 trillion yuan 》[Major News] In February, the growth rate of M2 hit a seven-year high, while new yuan-denominated loans and TSF both reached record highs for the same period in history, exceeding expectations! 》In January, new yuan-denominated loans hit a record high! M2 was up 12.6% YoY, and new TSF reached 5.98 trillion yuan

Debt restructuring for real estate enterprises is expected to enter the "debt reduction era." Recently, Sunac China announced that holders of approximately 74% of the total outstanding principal amount of its existing debts had submitted letters to join the offshore debt restructuring support agreement. Country Garden also announced that it had reached a consensus with over 70% of its creditors on high-yield bonds in terms of offshore debt, aiming to complete the overall restructuring of offshore debt within this year. With Sunac and Country Garden successively announcing the progress of their offshore debt restructuring, the debt restructuring or reorganization of troubled real estate enterprises is accelerating. Since June, offshore debt restructuring plans of real estate enterprises such as CIFI and Golden Wheel Tiandi have basically been approved by creditors and will proceed to court hearings. Logan Group has released a debt restructuring plan, aiming to advance debt optimization efforts. At the same time, the debt restructuring model for real estate enterprises is shifting from extension to substantive debt reduction. Among them, Sunac's offshore debt restructuring plan is expected to reduce debt by approximately RMB 60 billion. Country Garden's offshore debt restructuring proposal is expected to reduce debt by up to $11.6 billion. CIFI's offshore debt restructuring is expected to reduce offshore debt by approximately $5.27 billion, equivalent to approximately RMB 37.9 billion. "If enterprises and investors can reach a consensus on the terms of debt restructuring involving 'debt reduction,' we believe that the short-term liquidity pressure on real estate enterprises will be alleviated, allowing them to devote more energy to asset revitalization and sales, which will have a positive impact on the stabilization of the entire industry," Shi Lulu, Director of Corporate Ratings, Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, told reporters. However, while reaching a restructuring agreement can alleviate external financing pressure, real estate enterprises still face challenges in internal operating cash flow. Shi Lulu believes that in the short term, the quality of existing projects and the ability to revitalize assets are important considerations for determining a real estate enterprise's endogenous cash flow and investor decisions. "Despite the continuous optimization and adjustment of policies by the central and local governments, the recovery of the real estate market may primarily be concentrated in first-tier cities and some strong second-tier cities. However, competition in these cities is intensifying, as most national state-owned real estate enterprises are also repositioning and focusing on developing in these cities," Shi Lulu said. "Whether restructuring real estate enterprises can replenish land in these cities will have a significant impact on their medium and long-term development." Acceleration of Debt Restructuring for Real Estate Enterprises Recently, leading real estate enterprises such as Sunac and Country Garden have successively announced the progress of their restructuring, with debt reductions often amounting to billions of dollars, signaling that the industry's debt resolution process has entered a critical stage. "Currently, Sunac has secured support from approximately 74% of all creditors, indicating that the offshore debt restructuring is substantially completed," a debt restructuring analyst said. When the court rules on a debt restructuring case, it is deemed approved if 75% of the creditors who participate in the vote cast affirmative votes. A source close to Sunac told reporters that once the offshore debt restructuring is successful, Sunac will become the first large-scale real estate enterprise in the industry to have its offshore debt basically cleared to "zero," significantly mitigating debt risks at the publicly listed firm level, with an estimated debt resolution of approximately 60 billion yuan. Sunac's offshore debt restructuring receiving a high level of support is not an isolated case. On June 5, Wu Bijun, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Director of Country Garden, stated at an online shareholders' meeting that consensus had been reached with over 70% of creditors on high-yield debt. In addition, CIFI Holdings has also made progress in its offshore debt restructuring. The company announced that it had secured the required statutory majority support from plan creditors at a plan meeting held on June 3, and it is expected that offshore debt will be reduced by approximately $5.27 billion after the restructuring. The next step is to seek court approval for the plan on June 26. On the same day, Logan Group announced the optimization and adjustment of its debt restructuring plan. Under the new restructuring plan, the 29 original credit enhancement assets of the underlying bonds will be used for the full conversion of the specific asset option, the asset-for-debt settlement mode (including in-kind debt settlement and trust debt settlement) under the asset-for-debt option, and the full debt retention option, maximizing the revitalization of credit enhancement assets. Meanwhile, the company's shareholders will raise additional cash and equity resources for the new restructuring plan. Liu Shui, Director of Corporate Research at the China Index Academy, told reporters that the acceleration of debt restructuring among real estate enterprises is attributed to two factors. First, distressed real estate enterprises are offering diversified restructuring methods, such as combining debt-to-equity swaps, debt maturity extensions, asset settlements, and cash payments, which can meet the needs of different creditors and improve the acceptability of the plans. Second, creditors' attitudes have shifted under the current market conditions. "The real estate market has been adjusting for a long time, and creditors are aware of the difficulty real estate enterprises face in repaying debts. Compared to bankruptcy liquidation and the continuous depreciation of assets, they are more inclined to accept restructuring plans to improve the debt repayment rate. Additionally, some creditors, after the continuous transfer of debts of distressed real estate enterprises, have lower holding costs. If the cash recovery value of the restructuring plan is more attractive, they are more willing to accept it." Debt-to-Equity Swaps and Debt Reduction Become Mainstream It is worth noting that this year, the debt restructuring of real estate enterprises has moved from maturity extensions and deferred payments into the deep waters of debt reduction and burden alleviation. According to the offshore debt restructuring plans of Sunac, Country Garden, and CIFI Holdings, a significant reduction in debt principal has become a core feature. This shift may be driven by severe debt pressures. Data from CRIC shows that the scale of debt maturities for real estate enterprises in 2025 will reach 525.7 billion yuan, further climbing from 482.8 billion yuan in 2024. "The scale of debt maturities for real estate enterprises this year is higher than that in 2024, posing greater debt repayment pressures. As multiple real estate enterprises advance their debt restructuring, the trend of increasing debt reduction ratios is gradually emerging," pointed out a research report by Orient Securities. "This year, the debt reduction ratios in the debt restructuring of many real estate enterprises are significantly higher than the levels in 2023," Zhang Bo, President of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, told reporters. In the first five months of this year, the total sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises declined on a YoY basis, while the sales decline of distressed real estate enterprises was even more pronounced, directly leading to changes in the original cash flow forecasting models for these enterprises. "Under the new model, the future cash inflows of distressed real estate enterprises are expected to continue to decrease. This cash flow gap renders extension strategies ineffective. Only by reducing debt through debt reduction can the interests of creditors be maximized," Zhang Bo said. Liu Shui further explained that considering the decline in the absolute scale of the new home market over the long term and the fact that the market is still bottoming out in the short term, with asset depreciation pressures remaining, simply extending the repayment period may lead to issues of repeated overdue payments and secondary extensions, and cannot thoroughly resolve the debt crisis. "Therefore, debt-to-equity swaps and principal reductions can achieve a reduction in the company's debt scale, delay the overall debt repayment pressure, and debt-to-equity swaps also simultaneously increase net assets, which is conducive to repairing the company's balance sheet and creating conditions for an improvement in the company's fundamental business performance," Liu Shui said. Multiple industry analysts have pointed out that in the future, under the pressure of unstable new home sales and asset depreciation, real estate enterprises with greater debt repayment pressures will accelerate their debt restructuring processes, and increasing debt reduction ratios may become a widespread trend. Policy Environment Provides Support for Real Estate Enterprises' Debt Restructuring Behind the acceleration of real estate enterprises' debt restructuring lies the simultaneous improvement of the policy environment and market financing conditions. At the policy level, Li Yunze, Director of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, stated at a State Council Information Office press conference on May 7 that the government will expedite the introduction of a series of financing systems tailored to the new model of real estate development to help sustain and consolidate the stability of the real estate market. "This means that more supporting policies will be continuously implemented in the future, and loan support for enterprises will be continuously increased," Liu Shui said. It is expected that the "white list" policy for real estate project financing will continue to be refined to facilitate the substantial allocation of funds and improve the financial positions of enterprises. At the same time, the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism plays a positive role in ensuring the smooth construction and delivery of projects, stabilizing the confidence of financial institutions, alleviating the financial pressure on enterprises, promoting risk isolation and resolution, and driving improvements in market expectations, which is conducive to the smooth progress of debt restructuring work. A real estate industry analyst pointed out that it is expected that the role of policy support will become increasingly apparent. For example, the 4 trillion yuan financing white list and the acquisition and storage of existing housing and idle land by real estate enterprises will play a certain role in promoting the asset liquidation and debt repayment of distressed real estate enterprises. At the market level, financing costs for real estate enterprises have declined. Data from the China Index Academy shows that in May this year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises was 28.88 billion yuan, up 23.5% YoY. The average interest rate for bond financing was 2.35%, down 0.43 percentage points YoY and 0.41 percentage points MoM. "In terms of institutional innovation in the future, tools such as tiered design of convertible bonds, service trusts, and optimization of M&A financing will be used to reshape the logic of debt restructuring for real estate enterprises. However, challenges such as the sustainability of sales recovery and slow credit repair still need to be addressed," said Zhang Bo. In fact, although the debt restructuring of real estate enterprises has accelerated, industry risks have not yet been fully cleared. Liu Shui believes that the success of a real estate enterprise's restructuring does not mean it is out of the woods. Successful debt restructuring will help mitigate risks, but for enterprises to truly emerge from the crisis, they still need the support of a market recovery. Only after their fundamentals improve can they avoid repeated extensions or restructuring.