Recently, the Sichuan Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued "Several Policy Measures to Support Green and Low-Carbon Development in Sichuan Province" (Chuan Fa Gai Huan Zi [2026] No. 236), launching 14 special measures across three dimensions. Through fiscal subsidies, financial empowerment, and factor guarantees, it promotes the green and low-carbon transformation and upgrading of the province's economy and society, with a focus on providing clear financial support standards for green projects related to hydrogen energy, including renewable energy hydrogen production and new-type energy storage . The new policy focuses on the pain points and needs of green and low-carbon industry development, constructing a comprehensive support system of "fiscal investment + financial support + factor security." It covers multiple core areas such as hydrogen energy storage, energy saving and carbon reduction, clean coal utilization, infrastructure renovation, green finance, scientific and technological breakthroughs, and land and energy use guarantees. Many subsidy policies are clear in intensity and highly implementable, providing solid policy support for the high-quality development of Sichuan's green and low-carbon advantage industries. In terms of fiscal fund support, Sichuan has launched seven categories of special subsidy policies for projects, with differentiated subsidy ratios and caps. Among them, for renewable energy hydrogen production and hydrogen energy application projects, as well as independent new-type energy storage projects with advanced technology routes such as hundred-megawatt-level vanadium flow batteries, compressed air energy storage, and solid-state batteries with a capacity of 10 MW or above, provincial budgetary infrastructure investment will provide financial subsidies at a rate of no more than 15% of the total project investment , with a maximum subsidy of 20 million yuan per project . Meanwhile, projects for energy-saving, carbon-reducing, and efficiency improvement transformations, as well as energy-saving, efficiency improvement, and clean renovation of existing coal-fired power units, will simultaneously apply the 15% investment subsidy rate and the cap of 20 million yuan per project. Projects related to clean coal utilization, coalbed methane extraction, and waste heat and pressure utilization have greater support, with subsidy ratios up to 30% of total project investment, and the same maximum subsidy of 20 million yuan per project. For people's livelihood and supporting green infrastructure, the new policy specifies differentiated subsidy rules for charging infrastructure: new charging projects will be subsidized up to 40% of total investment, and renovation projects up to 50% of additional investment, with a maximum of 1 million yuan per project. Additionally, existing building energy-saving renovation projects over 1,000 m² that pass inspection can receive a maximum of 500,000 yuan in green building materials application incentives; qualified "Tianfu Lvhui" renewable resource recycling trading venues can receive up to 5 million yuan in special incentive funds. In the financial support sector, Sichuan focuses on 10 key transformation industries, including steel, coal power, building materials, and petrochemicals, guiding financial institutions to customize green and low-carbon transformation financial products, and encouraging local implementation of fiscal interest subsidy policies. For environmental protection projects such as sewage treatment, ecological restoration, and EOD initiatives, provincial finance provides interest subsidies at 1.5% of the actual loan amount, with a maximum annual subsidy of 3 million yuan per project and a subsidy period of up to 3 years. These are complemented by targeted interest subsidies for equipment upgrades and reward and subsidy policies for green bond underwriting — enterprises can receive additional provincial interest subsidies for equipment upgrade loans, capped at 5 million yuan per enterprise per year, while financial institutions underwriting green bonds can receive rewards and subsidies equal to 0.1% of the annual underwriting amount, with a maximum of 2 million yuan per institution. In terms of factor support, the new policy strengthens all-round support in science and technology, land use, and energy use. Provincial finance has established major science and technology special projects for environmental governance, with maximum support of 20 million yuan per project. All localities are required to reserve no less than 1% of industrial land for the construction of resource recycling facilities, and for high-quality energy conservation and environmental protection projects, land supply methods are optimized and land transfer reserve prices are reduced. Energy conservation review rules are optimized — except for "two-high" projects, fixed-asset investment projects that meet industry energy efficiency benchmark levels are exempt from energy consumption replacement requirements, and "two-high" technological transformation projects that have completed carbon emission replacement do not need to undergo another round of energy consumption replacement, significantly streamlining the approval process for high-quality green projects. It is reported that the policies released this time will subsequently have their detailed implementation rules refined by each responsible department, and will be carried out in accordance with current and effective management regulations, continuously strengthening the industrial foundation for Sichuan's green and low-carbon development and supporting the high-quality growth of the province's ecological economy.

SMM June 22: Metals markets: On Friday night, the domestic base metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at the performance of domestic base metals on June 18, we see: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE zinc up 0.39%, SHFE aluminum up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel edging up. SHFE tin fell 2.03%, SHFE copper fell 0.48%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. On Friday night, the ferrous metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at ferrous metals on June 18: Stainless steel rose 0.07%, iron ore fell 1.13%, rebar fell 0.95%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.77%. The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 5.78%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 3%. On Friday night in the overseas metals market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.5%. LME aluminum rose 0.12%, LME lead fell 1.32%. LME zinc fell 2.05%. LME tin rose 0.19%. LME nickel fell 1.41%. On Friday night in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.72%, posting a third consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 1.55%; COMEX silver fell 2.12%, marking its sixth consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 4.51%. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was closed; SHFE gold posted a weekly gain, up 4.11% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract was closed; SHFE silver posted a weekly gain, up 5.25% for the week. As it no longer expects the US Fed to cut interest rates in 2026, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven wrote in a note: "We revised down our December gold price target to $4,900/oz (previous target $5,400), implying gold is still expected to rise in H2, though by less than previously expected. Our view on gold remains structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks." The analysts said the downgrade was driven by Goldman Sachs economists pushing back the first US rate cut to June and December next year, from prior expectations of December 2026 and March 2027, and also by a lower forecast for gold ETF inflows. Additionally, they added that concerns over central bank independence may be limited given the "unexpectedly hawkish" first Fed meeting under Chair Warsh. (Jinshi) As of 7:47 a.m. June 20, closing prices from Friday night: Macro front China side: [NFRA: Promote the construction of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry] The National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) issued guidance on the development and application of safe AI in the banking and insurance sectors. It proposes to promote the construction of an AI application ecosystem in the financial sector. Advance the development of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry and promote the sharing and reuse of AI application outcomes across the sector. Encourage large financial institutions to play an exemplary role and export AI technologies and management experience to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Support small and medium-sized financial institutions in strengthening collaboration to jointly drive the implementation of application scenarios. Encourage closer synergy with the AI industry, using financial applications to foster industrial innovation and development, and leveraging industrial achievements to improve the quality and efficiency of financial applications. [Box office on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday surpasses 100 million yuan, number of new releases hits a near-decade high for the same period] According to data from online platforms, as of now, the box office (including pre-sales) on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday has exceeded 100 million yuan. The film offerings during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival are diverse and rich in genre. Over the short three-day holiday, nearly 20 films were released in concentrated fashion, setting a new high for the same period in nearly a decade. The film genres cover sci-fi, youth, animation, and more, addressing the viewing needs of audiences across almost all age groups. (CCTV News) [Guangdong: Accelerate the construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and make forward-looking plans for 6G technology and satellite internet] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that the deployment of 5G-A networks and pilot projects for 10G optical networks will be advanced in an orderly manner. 50G-PON ports will be deployed on a large scale in key scenarios such as factories and industrial parks. The upgrading and renovation of aging communication facilities will be further promoted, with FTTR whole-home optical network coverage to be achieved simultaneously in both new and older residential communities. Mobile network coverage along major transportation routes and hubs will be improved, and initiatives to increase broadband speeds and benefit the public will be implemented, driving an overall leap in broadband user download rates. The construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be accelerated, the spatial layout of data centers optimized, edge computing vigorously developed, and a “cloud-edge-device” collaborative computing power service system created. Forward-looking plans will be made for 6G technology and satellite internet, a Guangdong 6G Industry Innovation and Development Alliance will be established, and ministerial-provincial 6G collaborative pilot projects will be promoted, with a focus on creating application benchmarks for distinctive scenarios such as embodied AI, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and the marine economy. [Guangdong: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product system and improving the full futures industry chain] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that efforts will be made to cultivate and strengthen high-quality investment banks and investment institutions, encourage leading securities firms and fund management companies to enhance their service capabilities, compliance management capabilities, and market leadership, attract well-known domestic and international asset management institutions to establish corporate headquarters or regional headquarters in Guangdong, and encourage the development of the investment advisory business. Leverage the comprehensive service functions of the capital market, guide and support cities in improving the reserve pools of IPO-ready enterprises and M&A and restructuring projects, collaborate with exchanges, brokerages and other institutions to thoroughly deliver full-cycle counseling services for pre-IPO enterprises, optimize approval processes for land use rights, property, stock transfers involved in M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms, and encourage enterprises to expand the issuance scale of sci-tech bonds, green bonds, and asset securitization products. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [Weifang: Expand the implementation of 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities] The Weifang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued an announcement on expanding the implementation of Weifang's 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities. According to the province-wide unified categories and standards, subsidies will be provided to individual consumers purchasing range hoods, household gas stoves (including integrated stoves), water purifiers, dishwashers, hearing aids, robot vacuums (including floor scrubbers), walking-assist exoskeleton robots, smart toilets, and other products. Individual consumers purchasing the above subsidized category products within Weifang will receive a subsidy of 15% of the final selling price after deducting discounts at all stages. Each person is limited to one subsidized item per category, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and the delivery place of the subsidized products must be within the administrative area of Weifang. (Published by Weifang) [Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on Launch of Market Orders and Order Quantities for Related Trading Instructions] According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, market orders will be launched starting July 6, 2026 (i.e., the continuous trading session on the evening of July 3, 2026). Market orders are applicable to all listed futures and options products. For limit orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots for futures products and 100 lots for options products. For market orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 60 lots for futures products and 30 lots for options products. For settlement price trading orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots. Dollar aspects: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 100.76, hitting a high of 101.13 and a low of 100.69 during the session. On the weekly chart: the US dollar index rose for the week, up 0.97% for the week. Market pricing showed that bets on Fed rate hikes increased, with a 25-basis-point rate hike in September fully priced in. Data showed that foreign exchange traders, including hedge funds, were buying large amounts of options, betting that the dollar would strengthen further after the Fed sends a hawkish signal this week and reinforces US rate hike expectations. According to traders, leveraged funds started buying dollar call options on Wednesday, which would increase in value if the dollar appreciates. That demand extended into Thursday as investors digested the new Fed Chairman Warsh's anti-inflation remarks. Bank of America’s head of Americas FX options, Tobias Jungmann, said: “We’re seeing massive dollar call buying, concentrated mainly in G-10 currencies. Given how low implied volatility is currently, building long dollar positions via options looks very attractive.” James Swindell, senior FX options trader at Barclays in London, said: “We’re seeing broad-based, notable demand for dollar calls, especially in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.” (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 60.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike stands at 39.6%. By the September meeting, the probability of unchanged rates is 31.2%, with a 49.6% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 19.1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On other currencies: ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday that eurozone inflation will remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices. The ECB raised rates last week for the first time in nearly three years, responding to the surge in energy prices since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February. However, oil and natural gas prices subsequently tumbled after Iran and the US announced a peace deal. Lane said the ECB has no doubts about the correctness of the rate-hike decision and still expects inflation to stay above the 2% target for a prolonged period. “We think food prices will rise, and prices of goods and services will rise too. Even in a milder scenario where oil prices pull back, the rate hike was justified,” he said. Separately, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch said: If we see rising services inflation, we could consider another 25bp rate hike as insurance. If the data are ambiguous, I see no need to rush into action. (Jin10 Data) [Bank of England keeps rates on hold in a 7-2 vote, says it will watch Middle East situation closely] The BoE kept the interest rate at 3.75%, calling the recent drop in oil prices “encouraging,” though two policymakers voted for an immediate 25bp hike, worried about persistent inflation. External member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill—April’s sole dissenter—in voting to lift rates to 4% immediately, arguing that the price outlook remains uncertain despite the recent US-Iran ceasefire deal. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of China’s one-year loan prime rate as of June 22, Canada’s May CPI month-on-month rate, the eurozone’s June flash consumer confidence index, France’s June flash manufacturing PMI, Germany’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the eurozone’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash services PMI, the UK’s June CBI industrial orders balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6, the US June S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, the US June S&P Global flash services PMI, the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Australia’s May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, Germany’s June IFO business climate index, Switzerland’s June ZEW investor sentiment index, the US Q1 current account, US May new home sales annualized, Australia’s May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July GfK consumer confidence index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, the US May core PCE price index year-on-year rate, the US May personal spending month-on-month rate, the final Q1 US real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the US May core PCE price index month-on-month rate, the US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate, the US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment final index, and the US June one-year inflation expectations final rate. Additionally, this week, attention should also be paid to: European Central Bank President Lagarde Christine speaks at the EU Parliament; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Tiff delivers remarks; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the Bank of Japan releases the summary of opinions from its June monetary policy meeting; Nvidia holds its annual general meeting of shareholders; the Bank of Canada publishes its monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed releases the results of its annual bank stress test; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo attends a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); 300 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature today; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams John speaks; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Austan speaks; 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari Neel speaks. Crude Oil: Both crude oil futures rose in overnight trading last Friday: WTI rose 0.91%, Brent rose 0.47%. Weekly: WTI futures fell for two consecutive weeks, down 9.83% for the week; Brent fell for two straight weeks, down 8.53%. International crude oil futures opened lower on Friday, then struggled to rebound and turned lower several times during the session, hitting a low for the day after reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. As news emerged that both sides continued to attack each other after the ceasefire, prices turned higher again in late European trading. Brent struggled around the $80 level throughout the day. (Wall Street View) Iran's Foreign Ministry stated: Negotiations on a permanent deal with the US will only begin after the war in Lebanon ends permanently, the US fully lifts blockades, the US grants waivers for Iranian oil, and Iran's frozen assets are released. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran is shipping out a large volume of oil that was previously unable to be exported due to the US blockade, which could be welcome news for Tehran after it signed a temporary peace agreement with Washington on Wednesday. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg showed that 11 tankers sailed from Iran's Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman this week, carrying a total of 20 million barrels of crude oil. Previously, the US military had blocked these tankers from entering the Indian Ocean, a move aimed at limiting Tehran's access to petrodollars. (Jin10 Data APP) In addition, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data showed that for the week ended June 16, speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 94,763 contracts to 114,128 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, due to the contract rollover, the floor trading of NYMEX New York crude oil July futures will close at 2:30 on June 23, and electronic trading will close at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Moreover, the expiration of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX date, so please stay alert.

SMM, June 17: In the metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper edged up 0.33%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.17%, SHFE lead increased 1.04%, SHFE zinc fell 0.48%, SHFE tin fell 0.33%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.22%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.58%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.1%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 1.54%, the most-traded silicon metal contract edged up, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.68%. Ferrous metals mostly fell, with iron ore down 1.89%, rebar down 0.38%, HRC down 0.3%, and stainless steel up 0.66%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.95%. For base metals on the overseas market, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper and LME nickel edged up, LME aluminum rose 0.53%, LME lead fell 0.1%, LME zinc rose 0.13%, and LME tin rose 0.27%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.08%, and COMEX silver rose 0.39%. On the domestic precious metals market: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.26%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.27%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 1.59%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract edged up. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping index futures contract fell 2.95% to 3,697.5 points. Selected futures midday quotes as of 11:39 on June 17: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 210 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,500 yuan/mt, up 565 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price for SX-EW copper was 105,410 yuan/mt, up 565 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined again today after two consecutive days of increases, mainly due to fewer arrivals and more shipments... Macro Front China: [NFRA: Promote the flow of financial resources toward emerging and future industries] Ding Xiangqun, head of the National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA), stated that serving the real economy is the foundation of finance. It is necessary to optimize the supply structure of funds, deliver on the five priority areas of finance, and focus on promoting the development of new quality productive forces. The country should continuously improve full-cycle tech-finance service systems, strengthen financing support and insurance guarantees, and promote the flow of financial resources toward emerging and future industries. Efficiently support the strategy of expanding domestic demand. Financial regulatory authorities should guide financial institutions to deeply engage in fiscal-financial coordination to boost domestic demand, help implement the special campaign to invigorate consumption and the action to expand capacity and improve quality in the service sector, and strengthen financial services for major projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan. Enhance financial support for vulnerable areas. Promote a substantial improvement in quality and reasonable growth in volume for loans to small and micro enterprises. Develop tailored inclusive financial products for new employment groups, namely the "two drivers and two delivery workers"—truck drivers, ride-hailing drivers, couriers, and food delivery workers. Continuously improve the level of financial services for disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief, and fortify the line of defense for public safety. (CCTV News) [PBoC: Improve the short-end interest rate adjustment mechanism] Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the short-end interest rate adjustment mechanism will be improved. Building on the temporary overnight standing repo and reverse repo facilities established in July 2024, the mechanism for using these tools will be refined, and the operating rates will be adjusted to the 7-day reverse repo operating rate plus and minus 25 basis points, narrowing the corridor from 70 basis points to 50 basis points. The toolbox for open market operations will be further enriched, and overnight reverse repo operation instruments will be added when appropriate to better match the short-term liquidity needs of the banking system. (CCTV News) [Full text of the Action Plan for Shanghai International Financial Center to Develop Offshore Finance is released] The People's Bank of China, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and the Shanghai Municipal People's Government jointly issued the Action Plan for Shanghai International Financial Center to Develop Offshore Finance. It mentions that by the end of 2027, a preliminary institutional framework encompassing business rules, risk management and resolution, and the business environment adapted to offshore financial businesses is expected to be established, with explorations of offshore financial business at the forefront of digitalization to better serve enterprises going global. By the end of 2030, a relatively mature offshore financial institutional and legal framework is expected to gradually take shape, providing secure and reliable financial services for the sustained international investment and trade of Chinese enterprises, conducting tests for the reform of the onshore financial system, and strongly supporting the development of global allocation and risk management functions for RMB assets. By the end of 2035, it is expected to become a strategic hub for high-level coordinated and integrated development of offshore and onshore finance, leading the nation's high-standard financial opening and high-quality development. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [People's Bank of China launches the Foreign Institutional Investor and Central Banks RMB Repo Facility] To support the high-standard opening of China's financial market and facilitate RMB liquidity management for foreign central bank institutions, the People's Bank of China will use the Foreign Institutional Investor and Central Banks RMB Repo (FIMA RMB Repo) facility to provide RMB liquidity to eligible foreign central bank institutions. Overseas central bank-type institutions refer to overseas central banks or monetary authorities, international financial organizations, and sovereign wealth funds. The repo tool can be conducted via pledged repo or outright repo. Eligible repo bonds include Chinese government bonds, PBOC bills, policy financial bonds, and other high-grade RMB bonds approved by the PBOC. Repo terms include 7 days, 1 month, and 3 months. Repo rates are set by adding a spread to the 7-day reverse repo operation rate in the open market. (PBOC) [PBOC Optimizes Temporary Overnight Repo and Reverse Repo Operation Mechanism in the Open Market] To use the temporary overnight repo and reverse repo tools in the open market flexibly and efficiently, the PBOC decided to optimize operating parameters effective immediately, adjusting the operation window to 15:00-15:30 on working days and setting the operation rates at the 7-day reverse repo rate minus 25bp and plus 25bp, respectively. It further clarified the rules for using the tools: when the overnight money market rate (DR001) stays persistently below or above the corresponding tool operation rates, the PBOC will launch the relevant operations based on the needs of primary dealers. (PBOC) [Wu Qing: Social Security, Insurers Net Purchases of A-Shares at 1.3 Trillion Yuan Since New “Nine Guidelines”] At the opening ceremony of the 2026 Lujiazui Forum, Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, delivered a keynote speech titled “Further Improving Capital Market Functions to Coordinate Investment and Financing, Better Serving New Quality Productive Forces and High-Quality Economic Development.” He said that over the two-plus years since the release of the new “Nine Guidelines,” the market value of A-shares held by social security funds, insurers, etc. increased by 85%, with net purchases of A-shares reaching 1.3 trillion yuan. Wu Qing stated that efforts should be made to actively expand funding sources, support complementarity between state-backed funds and social capital, guide pension funds and insurance funds to increase equity investments, and promote the further smooth functioning of the “fundraising, investment, management, and exit” cycle. (from Wall Street CN APP) [Zhu Hexin: Higher Convenience for Entities with Sound Operations and Good Credit] Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the PBOC and Administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said at the 2026 Lujiazui Forum that the next step would be to shift from convenience for individual business items to convenience for business entities, granting higher convenience to entities with sound operations and good credit. (from Wall Street CN APP) [PBOC Reverse Repos Net Injection of 261.3 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 420.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos today. With 159.0 billion yuan of such reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net injection of 261.3 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data APP) 》On June 17, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was 6.8096 yuan per US dollar. On the dollar side: As of 11:39, the US dollar index was down 0.03% at 99.53. Option traders are increasingly divided on the US Fed’s near-term interest rate path, placing bets that range from rate cuts in coming months to rate hikes of varying magnitudes. Swaps market pricing shows that the Fed is almost certain to hold interest rates steady at its Wednesday meeting, with all eyes turning to Chairman Warsh’s first press conference for clues on future policy. Although the US and Iran are set to formally sign a temporary peace deal, with oil prices already falling to three-month lows and offering some relief from inflationary pressures, the policy outlook remains uncertain. (Jin10 Data APP) The Federal Reserve will conclude its policy meeting in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, and the market is now focused on a key variable: the dot plot may lack a key dot. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) after the meeting, which includes individual officials’ assessments of the interest rate path for 2026 to 2028 and beyond—the closely watched dot plot. Investors will parse the distribution of dots to gauge the overall bias of officials on the economic outlook and monetary policy. However, most Wall Street Fed watchers expect that new Chairman Warsh Kevin (Warsh Kevin) will not submit his own rate projection dot. He only assumed his post on May 22 and feels he has not yet prepared a full forecast; additionally, he has consistently been critical of the dot plot and the broader forward guidance communication framework. Should Warsh decline to submit a dot, it would break from a practice that has persisted for 14 years since the financial crisis, and could also ruffle feathers among FOMC members who rely on the dot plot to convey policy signals. Yet, this move would also serve as his first step in pushing for fundamental reforms at the Fed. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CNBC, the Federal Reserve will release its latest dot plot on Wednesday, showing officials’ expectations for the interest rate trajectory. However, most Wall Street Fed watchers expect new Fed Chairman Warsh Kevin not to participate, possibly because he feels unprepared or simply because he dislikes the dot plot. Warsh has previously spoken out against dot plots and other forward guidance methods, arguing that they constrain the Fed’s decision-making ability. Should Warsh refuse to provide a dot plot projection, it would run counter to the practice the Fed has followed for roughly 14 years since the financial crisis and could distance him from other Fed officials who support this communication tool. Yet, for Chairman Warsh, who has pledged to fundamentally reform the way the institution operates, this could serve as an effective first step. “In my opinion, he likely does not want to submit a rate forecast.”Bill English, former head of monetary policy at the US Fed and now a professor at Yale University, said, “There may be others on the committee who don’t particularly like the dot plot, and they might be willing to do the same.” According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in June was 99.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut was 0.5%. The probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged through July was 92%, with a 7.9% probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike and a 0% probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut. In other currencies: Goldman Sachs economist Akira Otani said that the Bank of Japan is very likely to raise interest rates again in January 2027, but there is high uncertainty over the timing of future rate hikes. “With underlying inflation near 2%, even a small change, such as a further modest depreciation of the yen, could significantly increase the risk of inflation exceeding 2%,” the economist noted, “Thus, the probability distribution of the timing of the next rate hike is seen as skewed towards an earlier move.” Otani added that the actual timing of the rate hike would be “significantly influenced by the progress of communication with the government.” (Jin10 Data APP) A senior official at the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Wednesday that as a tense geopolitical environment reshapes financial and economic linkages, Australian institutions need to prepare for a financial system that is more susceptible to shocks. RBA Deputy Governor Brad Jones said, “We have to accept the world as it is, not as we would like it to be, and it is against this backdrop that policymakers are intensifying efforts to ensure the financial system can cope with a more challenging risk environment.” Jones noted that the high level of foreign ownership in Australia’s fixed-income market means the country’s financial system will not be immune to external shocks. Referring to pension funds, he said, “About half of the assets in our superannuation fund industry are invested offshore.” (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Due for release today are the US May retail sales month-over-month rate, US April business inventories month-over-month rate, US May pending home sales index month-over-month rate, UK May CPI month-over-month rate, UK May retail price index month-over-month rate, eurozone May final CPI year-over-year rate, eurozone May final CPI month-over-month rate, and other data. Also in focus: ECB President Lagarde is participating in a summit on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI); the 2026 Lujiazui Forum in China takes place from June 17 to 18. Oil: As of 11:39, both oil benchmarks extended their losses from the previous four trading sessions, with WTI down 0.32% and Brent down 0.32%. Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen this Friday, with both US and Iranian sides expected to sign a preliminary agreement memorandum in Switzerland at that time, though the full text of the agreement has not yet been released. The preliminary agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz triggered wild swings in the global oil market. According to the Wall Street Journal, people familiar with the matter said that under the agreement, the US will allow Iran to immediately resume oil and fuel export sales, providing Tehran with an upfront economic incentive to help de-escalate the conflict. Provisions in the deal exempting oil sales from sanctions will take effect immediately upon the signing of the agreement this week. Meanwhile, essential services supporting oil sales, such as banking, transportation, and insurance, will also be exempted to ensure smooth execution of relevant transactions. United Against Nuclear Iran stated that a supertanker loaded with Iranian crude oil had departed from Chabahar port, crossed the US blockade, and sailed out of the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday with its transponder turned on. This marks the first such occurrence since the US imposed a maritime blockade in April this year. A senior US official said on Tuesday that while Iran will receive upfront sanctions relief for oil sales, long-term and sustained sanctions relief will depend on Iran's compliance with US demands, including issues related to the opening of the Strait and its nuclear program. The official added that Iran still will not immediately gain access to tens of billions of dollars frozen outside China. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

May's financial data were released, and the topic of "deposit migration" once again sparked market attention. Data recently released by the central bank shows that after a decline of 1.94 trillion yuan in April, household deposits continued to shrink by 110 billion yuan in May, with a total reduction of 2.05 trillion yuan over the two months. This marks a rare occurrence in nearly a decade of household deposits posting negative growth for two consecutive months. Over the same period, deposits at non-bank financial institutions increased by a combined 3.61 trillion yuan, with the "seesaw" effect persisting. Another phenomenon that has drawn significant attention is the continued deleveraging in the household sector: in May, household loans decreased by 141.2 billion yuan, with a YoY decline that widened by 195.2 billion yuan (compared to an increase of 54 billion yuan in the same period last year). Industry experts have repeatedly noted that the flow of household deposits to non-bank institutions merely changes the structure of bank deposits, and this trend precisely reflects the deepening of China's financial market. A more noteworthy positive signal is that as the growth rate of household deposits continues to pull back, the "scissors gap" between it and the growth of M2 (broad money) continues to narrow and has remained negative for five consecutive months, indicating a trend of marginal fund mobilization. Some institutional sources believe that the capital cycle from households to enterprises and non-bank institutions is restarting, building momentum for the improvement of the domestic economic cycle.

SMM, June 15: Metal markets: Last Friday’s overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in and outside China, with only LME nickel edging down 0.03%. SHFE tin led the gains, rising 2.19%. LME copper, LME zinc, LME tin and SHFE zinc all gained over 1%: LME copper rose 1.02%, LME zinc rose 1.63%, LME tin rose 1.75% and SHFE zinc rose 1.48%, while the rest of the metals gained less than 1%. In addition, the alumina main contract rose 0.86% and the foundry aluminum main contract rose 0.45%. Last Friday’s overnight session for ferrous metals saw rises across the board except for iron ore, which fell 0.13%. Rebar rose 0.44% and HRC rose 0.59%. On the coking coal and coke front, coking coal rose 0.22% and coke rose 2.73%. Last Friday’s overnight session saw precious metals rebound collectively. COMEX gold rose 3.06% and COMEX silver rose 6.44%. However, due to notable earlier declines, COMEX gold still recorded a weekly loss of 2.87%, marking its second consecutive weekly drop. COMEX silver recorded a weekly loss of 1.42%, marking its fifth consecutive weekly drop. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 2.30% and SHFE silver rose 5.22%. SHFE gold posted a weekly loss of 6.79%, also marking its fifth consecutive weekly drop. SHFE silver plummeted 10.14% for the week, also marking a five-week losing streak. Bank of China issued an announcement, stating that global geopolitics and the US Fed's monetary policy are currently subject to considerable uncertainty. Under the influence of multiple factors, price fluctuations of precious metals in and outside China have further intensified. To protect the interests of clients involved in precious metals-related businesses—such as accumulated gold, accumulated interest gold, account precious metals, two-way account precious metals, and agency services for individual Shanghai Gold Exchange operations—the bank specifically reminds you to guard against market risks, engage in rational investment based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance, reasonably control your precious metals positions, mitigate the impact of short-term price fluctuations through long-term investment, and prevent the risk of capital losses caused by market volatility. As of 8:31 a.m. on June 13, the closing prices from last Friday’s overnight session are as follows: Macro front Domestic front: [PBoC: In the first five months, aggregate social financing rose by 1.748 trillion yuan; new loans stood at 911 billion yuan; May M2 increased 8.6% YoY] PBoC’s preliminary statistics show that the cumulative increase in the aggregate social financing scale for the first five months of 2026 was 17.48 trillion yuan, 1.16 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. Specifically, RMB loans extended to the real economy rose by 9 trillion yuan, a YoY decline of 1.38 trillion yuan; foreign currency loans extended to the real economy, converted into RMB, rose by 115.3 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 211.6 billion yuan; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, a YoY increase in decline of 91.8 billion yuan; trust loans rose by 5.7 billion yuan, a YoY decline in growth of 57 billion yuan; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, a YoY increase in decline of 151.4 billion yuan; net financing from corporate bonds was 1.67 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 757.7 billion yuan; net financing from government bonds was 5.67 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 634 billion yuan; and domestic stock financing by non-financial enterprises was 230.5 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 79.9 billion yuan. In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans fell by 694.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans rose by 62.8 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions grew by 9.63 trillion yuan, with short-term loans up 3.77 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans up 4.99 trillion yuan, and bill financing up 699.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 279.7 billion yuan. PBOC data showed that at end-May, broad money (M2) stood at 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. Narrow money (M1) totaled 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) reached 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. Net cash injection in the first five months was 590.7 billion yuan. According to the PBOC website, to maintain ample banking system liquidity, on June 15, 2026, the People’s Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, rate-based tender and multiple-price bidding, with a tenor of 6 months (183 days), maturing on December 15, 2026. US dollar: As of the overnight close last Friday, the US dollar index edged up 0.1% to 99.79, posting a weekly decline of 0.28%, with markets closely watching US-Iran peace talks. Multiple US media reported on the 12th that a senior US administration official said that day the US side is “80% to 85%” confident of signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran within the coming days. The official also expressed confidence that Israel would support this US-Iran MoU. According to CNN, CBS and others, the official said on a press conference call, “We are not yet fully at the finish line, but we are very close.” The official noted that the specific venue and date for signing the MoU have not been determined, but US President Trump previously suggested signing it in a European country, which could be an option. (Xinhua) Iranian media reported on the 12th that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that once the final stage of negotiations between Iran and the US is completed, the MoU will be signed and announced immediately. The first stage will be signed electronically remotely, “possibly within the next few days.” (Xinhua) HSBC analysts noted in a report that the US dollar exchange rate is currently below levels implied by market expectations for US interest rates. They said the dollar’s reaction has been relatively limited as market expectations recently shifted from anticipated rate cuts to potential rate hikes. They believe this may reflect loose financial conditions in the US and hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. They stated that the dollar requires clear stimulus from monetary policy. If the US Fed fails to support rate hike expectations at this week's meeting, the dollar "could be in trouble." (Jin10 Data App) Traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, but see a more than 50% probability of a hike before year-end. Market pricing dialed back slightly after Thursday’s comments from Trump on a potential deal. In other currencies: ING analyst Chris Turner noted that for the EUR/USD exchange rate, the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting may matter more than the ECB’s Thursday rate hike decision. The ECB has signaled further tightening, with markets speculating about another hike in July. However, he stated that because the market has already priced in an aggressive ECB tightening cycle and is reluctant to push that expectation higher, EUR/USD remains below 1.16. Moreover, markets see a possible Fed hike later this year. He indicated that unless the Fed pushes back against this expectation at its Wednesday meeting, the dollar should stay firm. (Jin10 Data App) On the data front: This week, from China, the data to be released include China’s May total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, May industrial value-added above designated size YoY, May share of Swift RMB in global payments, May total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), and May total electricity consumption (TBD). From the US, releases will include the US Fed interest rate decision (upper bound) as of June 17, June NY Empire State manufacturing index, May industrial production MoM, June NAHB housing market index, weekly change in ADP employment as of May 30, May housing starts annualized, May building permits total, May import price index MoM, May retail sales MoM, April business inventories MoM, May pending home sales index MoM, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and May Conference Board leading index MoM. From the UK, releases will include May CPI MoM, May retail price index MoM, April three-month ILO unemployment rate, May unemployment rate, May claimant count change, Bank of England rate decision as of June 18, June GfK consumer confidence index, and May seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. From the eurozone, releases will include April seasonally adjusted trade balance, April industrial production MoM, June ZEW economic sentiment index, May final CPI YoY, May final CPI MoM, and April seasonally adjusted current account. From Switzerland, releases will include the May consumer confidence index, May trade balance, and Swiss National Bank policy rate as of June 18. From Japan, releases will include the Bank of Japan target rate as of June 16 and May core CPI YoY. From Canada, releases will include April wholesale sales MoM and April retail sales MoM. Germany’s June ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany’s May PPI MoM, and the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision as of June 16 will also be published. Additionally, on June 15, China will see the maturity of 218.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan in six-month outright reverse repos, the National Energy Administration is set to release data on nationwide electricity consumption around the 15th of each month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will publish the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) will convene a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan (tentative), and China's refined oil products will enter a new pricing window. On June 18, the US Fed's FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections, and Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision. RBA Governor Block will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision, and the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and minutes. The G7 Summit will open, running until June 17. In the Crude Oil Market: Last Friday, oil prices fell overnight in both markets, with US crude dropping 3.9% and Brent crude dropping 3.96%. Expectations for a US-Iran peace agreement continued to rise, putting oil prices under pressure and pulling them back. On a weekly basis, oil prices also declined, with US crude down 6.9% and Brent crude down 6.76%. In early trading in the US stock market, according to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Islamabad memorandum of understanding has never been this close to being reached, causing oil prices to plunge and US stock indices to extend intraday gains. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei stated that the two sides have now reached an understanding on most issues, and Iran is in the final stages of consolidating the MOU text. At midday in the US stock market, CCTV reported that Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif Shehbaz said the final agreed peace agreement text has been completed, and the two countries are moving forward to implement the next steps. Oil prices continued to decline. During the session, US stocks briefly fell after Trump criticized Iran for leaking agreement terms, but then Wall Street News mentioned that the UAE has agreed to unlock large-scale funds to Iran, with the first tranche of about $3 billion already transferred, further boosting optimism about reaching an agreement. (Wall Street News) US Energy Secretary Wright stated that currently about 7 million barrels of oil and fuel pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day, a volume that accounts for about half of the stranded cargo when the Iran conflict first erupted. Wright said that no Iranian crude can currently be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that if an agreement is reached, he expects all products will be able to pass freely through the Persian Gulf. Wright also noted that if no agreement is reached, the US military will resume transportation along the route. Wright stated that the US will not impose an oil export ban to curb oil prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright stated on Friday local time that US refiners can still absorb more Venezuelan crude oil. Wright said that Venezuela currently sends about half of its total exports of 1.2 million barrels per day to the US, and this proportion could rise in the coming months. Wright also said that Iran is currently not exporting any oil or refined products. During the Middle East conflict, the US has actively filled the gap in oil exports. (Jinshi Data APP) Triggered by the most severe supply disruption on record from the Iran conflict, US emergency stockpile crude exports have surged to an all-time high. Customs data compiled by Kpler Ltd. show that nearly 22 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have been sold to overseas markets so far this year. This volume has already surpassed the previous record set four years ago. Although exports of crude from the US emergency stockpile are not uncommon, the scale of shipments this year shows that, as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggers supply disruptions, global markets are increasingly relying on US supplies to weather the crisis. For every three barrels of crude released from the emergency stockpile, roughly one barrel is exported. The volume headed overseas could be even higher, as the Trump administration continues to release the full promised 172 million barrels of crude. This is part of a larger effort by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to help buffer the impact of the Iran war on global energy markets. (Wallstreetcn)

According to preliminary central bank statistics, the cumulative increase in total social financing (TSF) in the first five months of 2026 was 17.48 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan from the same period last year. Of which, new renminbi loans to the real economy increased by 9 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 1.38 trillion yuan; foreign-currency loans to the real economy converted into renminbi increased by 115.3 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 211.6 billion yuan; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, a further YoY decrease of 91.8 billion yuan; trust loans increased by 5.7 billion yuan, a YoY decrease of 57 billion yuan; undiscounted bankers' acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, a further YoY decrease of 151.4 billion yuan; net financing of corporate bonds was 1.67 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 757.7 billion yuan; net financing of government bonds was 5.67 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 634 billion yuan; and domestic equity financing of non-financial enterprises amounted to 230.5 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 79.9 billion yuan. In the first five months, renminbi loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 694.2 billion yuan, and medium and long-term loans increased by 62.8 billion yuan; enterprise sector loans increased by 9.63 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 3.77 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 4.99 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 699.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 279.7 billion yuan. Central bank data show that at end-May, the broad money (M2) balance was 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. The narrow money (M1) balance was 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. In the first five months, net cash injection was 590.7 billion yuan. Financial Statistics Report for May 2026 I. Outstanding Total Social Financing (TSF) Stock Increased by 7.7% YoY Preliminary statistics show that at end-May 2026, outstanding TSF stood at 458.81 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. Of which, outstanding renminbi loans to the real economy were 277.4 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY; outstanding foreign-currency loans to the real economy converted into renminbi were 1.14 trillion yuan, down 4.3% YoY; outstanding entrusted loans were 11.22 trillion yuan, unchanged YoY; outstanding trust loans were 4.67 trillion yuan, up 7.1% YoY; outstanding undiscounted bankers' acceptances were 2.13 trillion yuan, down 6.2% YoY; outstanding corporate bonds were 35.69 trillion yuan, up 8.4% YoY; outstanding government bonds were 100.6 trillion yuan, up 15.1% YoY; outstanding domestic equity of non-financial enterprises stood at 12.43 trillion yuan, up 4.7% YoY. In terms of structure, at end-May, outstanding renminbi loans to the real economy accounted for 60.5% of outstanding TSF, down 1.2 percentage points YoY; foreign-currency loans to the real economy converted into renminbi accounted for 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points YoY; entrusted loans accounted for 2.4%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY; trust loans accounted for 1%, unchanged YoY; undiscounted bankers' acceptances accounted for 0.5%, unchanged YoY; corporate bonds accounted for 7.8%, up 0.1 percentage points YoY; government bonds accounted for 21.9%, up 1.4 percentage points YoY; domestic equity of non-financial enterprises accounted for 2.7%, down 0.1 percentage points YoY. II. In the first five months, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing was 17.48 trillion yuan Preliminary statistics show that in the first five months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing was 17.48 trillion yuan, representing a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year. Specifically, RMB loans extended to the real economy increased by 9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.38 trillion yuan YoY; foreign currency loans to the real economy converted into RMB increased by 115.3 billion yuan, an increase of 211.6 billion yuan YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, with the decline widening by 91.8 billion yuan YoY; trust loans increased by 5.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 57 billion yuan YoY; undiscounted bankers' acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, with the decline widening by 151.4 billion yuan YoY; net financing of corporate bonds was 1.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 757.7 billion yuan YoY; net financing of government bonds was 5.67 trillion yuan, a decrease of 634 billion yuan YoY; domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises amounted to 230.5 billion yuan, an increase of 79.9 billion yuan YoY. III. Broad money (M2) increased by 8.6% At the end of May, broad money (M2) outstanding was 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. Narrow money (M1) outstanding was 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) outstanding was 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. In the first five months, net cash injection amounted to 590.7 billion yuan. IV. RMB deposits increased by 15.77 trillion yuan in the first five months At the end of May, outstanding deposits in domestic and foreign currencies reached 352.38 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY. At month-end, RMB deposit outstanding was 344.45 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY. RMB deposits increased by 15.77 trillion yuan in the first five months. Specifically, household deposits rose by 5.63 trillion yuan, deposits of non-financial enterprises by 1.26 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits by 1.91 trillion yuan, and deposits of non-bank financial institutions by 5.64 trillion yuan. At the end of May, foreign currency deposit outstanding was $1.16 trillion, up 17.5% YoY. In the first five months, foreign currency deposits rose by $103.2 billion. V. RMB loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan in the first five months At the end of May, outstanding loans in domestic and foreign currencies stood at 284.79 trillion yuan, up 5.4% YoY. At month-end, RMB loan outstanding was 281.02 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. RMB loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan in the first five months. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans fell by 694.2 billion yuan while medium and long-term loans rose by 62.8 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 9.63 trillion yuan, including a 3.77 trillion yuan rise in short-term loans, a 4.99 trillion yuan increase in medium and long-term loans, and a 699.9 billion yuan expansion in bill financing; loans to non-bank financial institutions declined by 279.7 billion yuan. At the end of May, the outstanding foreign currency loan balance stood at $553.2 billion, up 2.6% YoY. Foreign currency loans increased by $8.2 billion in the first five months. VI. In May, the monthly weighted average interest rate for interbank lending in the interbank RMB market was 1.31%, and the monthly weighted average rate for pledged repo was 1.33%. In May, total trading volume in the interbank RMB market, comprising lending, cash bonds, and repos, reached 180.45 trillion yuan, with a daily average of 9.5 trillion yuan, up 7.9% YoY. Specifically, the daily average interbank lending volume grew 18.5% YoY, cash bond trading rose 4.7% YoY, and pledged repo trading increased 8% YoY. In May, the weighted average interbank lending rate was 1.31%, up 0.02 percentage points MoM but down 0.24 percentage points YoY; the weighted average pledged repo rate was 1.33%, up 0.02 percentage points MoM but down 0.23 percentage points YoY. VII. In May, cross-border RMB settlement under the current account amounted to 1.67 trillion yuan, and under direct investment, it was 0.58 trillion yuan. In May, cross-border RMB settlement under the current account totaled 1.67 trillion yuan, of which goods trade, services trade, and other current account items were 1.28 trillion yuan and 0.39 trillion yuan, respectively; cross-border RMB settlement under direct investment totaled 0.58 trillion yuan, consisting of 0.22 trillion yuan in outward direct investment and 0.36 trillion yuan in foreign direct investment. Recommended Reading: ] Latest financial data released: M2 and outstanding aggregate financing at end-February grew 8.7% and 9.0% YoY respectively. See how authoritative experts interpret this! ] Aggregate financing and new RMB loans hit second-highest level for the same period in history in the first two months; February M2 up 8.7% YoY ] In January 2024, new aggregate financing was 6.5 trillion yuan, new loans were 4.92 trillion yuan, and M2 grew 8.7% YoY ] PBOC: December aggregate financing increment was 1.94 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.17 trillion yuan, M2 up 9.7% YoY ] PBOC: November aggregate financing increment was 2.45 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.09 trillion yuan, M2 up 10% YoY ] November financial data released: The volume of aggregate financing continued to grow more YoY, and credit support for the real economy remained solid ] Will trillion-yuan government bonds "prop up" October money and credit data? Market expects overall strong aggregate financing but weak credit; RRR cut expectations still building ] PBOC: October aggregate financing increment was 1.85 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 738.4 billion yuan, M2 up 10.3% YoY ] PBOC: September aggregate financing increment was 4.12 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 2.31 trillion yuan, M2 up 10.3% YoY ] PBOC makes heavy-hitting remarks! Talking about China-US interest rate differentials, September financial data, mortgage rates on existing home loans... ] General Administration of Customs: China's imports and exports showed positive trends in the first three quarters; September hit a new single-month high for the year ] PPI and CPI data improved for three consecutive months; experts say price improvement further confirmed, expect the YoY improvement in PPI to continue ] NBS explains: September CPI was stable, PPI YoY decline narrowed for three consecutive months, both rose MoM ] September mobile phone export value doubled MoM; automobile export YoY growth continued to lead ] PBOC: August aggregate financing increment was 3.12 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.36 trillion yuan, M2 up 10.6% YoY ] PBOC: Act when it's time to act, resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshooting! USD/CNH plunged ] PBOC: August aggregate financing scale was 528.2 billion yuan, new RMB loans were 345.9 billion yuan, M2 up 10.7% YoY ] PBOC: June aggregate financing and new RMB loans far exceeded expectations, M2 up 11.3% YoY ] PBOC: May aggregate financing increment was 1.56 trillion yuan, 331.2 billion yuan more than the previous month ] PBOC: May RMB loans increased by 1.36 trillion yuan, with the previous figure at 718.8 billion yuan ] PBOC: May RMB deposits increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, 1.58 trillion yuan less than the same period last year ] PBOC: April aggregate financing increment was 1.22 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 718.8 billion yuan, M2 up 12.4% YoY ] PBOC: Q1 RMB deposits increased by 15.39 trillion yuan, loans increased by 10.6 trillion yuan

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Capital Bulls and Bears in High-Level Stalemate, LME Zinc Fluctuates]: Overnight LME zinc opened at $3,534/mt. Early in the session, it quickly rose to a high of $3,547.5/mt before bulls reduced positions, sending LME zinc sharply lower to a low of $3,513/mt during European trading. Afterwards, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war, LME zinc fluctuated and eventually closed lower at $3,534.5/mt, down $6/mt, or 0.17%. Trading volume fell to 9,816 lots, and open interest decreased by 151 lots to 234,000 lots.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,991/mt, briefly surged to $1,992/mt (the highest price) in Asian trading before pulling back under pressure; during European trading, although there was a slight recovery, resistance was notable and it fluctuated downward again, touching a low of $1,987.5/mt, eventually closing at $1,988/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.03%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,300 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward under pressure, touching a low of 16,155 yuan/mt before rebounding slightly, moving sideways in the 16,170-16,205 yuan/mt range, and ultimately closing at 16,180 yuan/mt, recording a four-day losing streak, down 160 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.98%. On the macro front: Israel and Iran exchanged fire for the first time since April, and after Trump intervened, both countries announced a temporary halt to attacks. U.S. media: Trump warned Netanyahu that if he wages war with Iran again, he may find himself fighting alone. Iran's UN representative: hopes that the US-Iran negotiations will reach an agreement by the end of June. South Korean regulatory authorities will review speculative won trading. OpenAI disclosed it has secretly filed for an IPO. The CPC Committee of the National Financial Regulatory Administration held an enlarged meeting: to steadily promote the resolution of risks at local small and medium-sized financial institutions and deeply rectify disorderly competition in the financial sector. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, suppliers sold as they saw fit, premiums and discounts quoted yesterday were stable compared to last Friday, and primary lead smelter self-picked-up cargoes were ample, with mainstream production area quotations at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In the secondary lead market, smelters gradually lowered scrap battery purchase prices to ease losses, some smelters resumed shipments, and secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, at the same level as primary lead prices. However, downstream enterprises had limited just-in-time procurement and mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in sluggish spot order transactions. Inventory: As of June 8, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,100 mt to 309,250 mt; SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations totaled 64,700 mt, down 2,100 mt from June 1 and down 2,400 mt from June 4. Today's lead price forecast: Recently, operating rates at secondary lead smelters have rebounded, combined with primary lead enterprises resuming production after maintenance, leading to a continued increase in lead ingot supply. June production is expected to shift from decline to growth. However, the downstream lead-acid battery market is in its traditional off-season, with enterprises mainly making just-in-time procurement and consumption remaining sluggish. Additionally, as the delivery date approaches, invisible inventory is turning into visible inventory, further intensifying inventory buildup pressure. Cost side, amid weakening lead prices, secondary lead enterprises proactively lowered scrap battery purchasing prices, weakening support; however, scrap battery raw materials still had bottom support, and coupled with strong sentiment of holding back from selling at low prices among smelters amid widening losses in secondary lead, this still provided some floor to lead prices, limiting the room for deep price declines.

SMM, June 9: On the metals market front: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 0.31%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.15%, while SHFE lead fell 1.19%. SHFE zinc rose 0.3%. SHFE tin fell 0.79%. SHFE nickel fell 0.77%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.22%, and foundry aluminum main contract rose 0.15%. Overnight, ferrous metals all fell, with iron ore down 0.13%, hot-rolled coil down 0.65%, stainless steel down 1.16%, and rebar down 0.51%. In the coking coal and coke sector: the most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 6.01%, and the most-traded coke futures contract fell 3.03%. Overnight on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper rose 0.54%. LME aluminum rose 0.11%, while LME lead fell 0.7%. LME zinc fell 0.17%. LME tin fell 2.07%. LME nickel fell 0.94%. Overnight, on the precious metals front : Overnight, COMEX gold fell 0.26%, and COMEX silver fell 1.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.06%, while the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.65%. As of 7:19 on June 9, overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestically: [State Council Issues the "15th Five-Year Plan for Modernizing Emergency Response Systems"] The State Council recently issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Modernizing Emergency Response Systems," deploying tasks for work safety, disaster prevention, reduction, and relief during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The plan proposes that by 2030, significant progress will be made in modernizing China's emergency management system and capabilities, effectively establishing a governance model focused on pre-incident prevention. The centralized, unified, efficient, and authoritative emergency management system with Chinese characteristics will be further improved. The emergency command mechanism under the comprehensive safety and emergency response framework will be more robust. Capabilities for handling major and catastrophic emergencies and grassroots emergency response capacity will be significantly enhanced. The rule of law, scientific, and intelligent levels of emergency management will be substantially raised, leading to sustained stability in work safety and disaster prevention, reduction, and relief. By 2035, a major-country emergency response system with Chinese characteristics compatible with basic modernization will be established, fully realizing law-based, science-based, and smart emergency management, creating a positive interaction between high-quality development and high-level safety. (Xinhua News Agency) [Regarding Data Empowering AI Development: First Systematic Deployment at National Level] The National Data Administration released the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Action on Building High-Quality Industry Datasets," marking the first systematic deployment at the national level for data empowering artificial intelligence development. Centering on key links such as the supply, circulation, and application of high-quality industry datasets, the "Implementation Plan" deploys six major special actions. It proposes continuously advancing the construction of high-quality multi-modal datasets covering text, images, audio, and video to meet AI application needs; focusing on key directions like intelligent agents, embodied AI, and world models, requiring accelerated dataset construction; and guiding regions with suitable conditions to carry out pilot construction of data annotation innovation zones based on local circumstances. Experts stated that data is the core raw material for AI training, and high-quality datasets can accelerate improvements in large model performance. (Jin10 Data APP) [NFRA: Steadily Advance Risk Resolution for Local Small and Medium-Sized Financial Institutions, Resolutely Guard the Bottom Line Against "Implosions"] The Communist Party Committee of the National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) held an expanded meeting to study and deploy recent key tasks. The meeting emphasized the need to practically enhance the sense of responsibility and urgency in preventing and resolving financial risks. It called for steadily advancing risk resolution for local small and medium-sized financial institutions, resolutely guarding the bottom line against "implosions." Further leverage the role of the "home delivery guarantee" whitelist system and accelerate the formulation of financing systems compatible with the new model for real estate development. Actively cooperate in resolving local government debt risks and support the exit and transformation of financing platforms. Fully utilize the inter-ministerial joint meeting's comprehensive platform role, taking an overall approach to continuously improve the effectiveness of comprehensive and systematic governance for preventing and combating illegal financial activities. Closely guard against risks from external shocks and continuously improve contingency plans. (Jin10 Data APP) On the US dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 100.02. According to a survey by the New York Fed, consumer expectations for future inflation remained stable in May, which is good news for the US Fed, as officials worry that accelerating price increases could become entrenched. The report showed that consumer inflation expectations for the coming year fell by 0.1 percentage points, while three-year and five-year inflation expectations remained largely around 3%, with no significant changes. The survey also indicated relatively small changes in consumer views on labour market conditions. Consumers saw a slight decrease in the likelihood of unemployment rising further in the future. On the other hand, they also grew more pessimistic about the ease of finding a new job if needed. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability that the US Fed will hold interest rates steady through June is 98.1%, with a 1.9% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. For July, the probability of holding rates steady is 84.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 13.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 1.6%. Morgan Stanley strategists stated in a report that the US dollar may weaken in the coming months if risk appetite rebounds and the US Fed avoids raising interest rates. They noted that positive risk sentiment is unfavorable for the dollar in an environment where rates do not rise. However, they indicated that if the US economy outperforms others, leading to larger rate hikes than elsewhere, this would be more beneficial for the dollar. "Given that both the ECB and the BOJ are expected to hike rates this month, narrowing interest rate differentials should prompt a rise in risk appetite, thereby exerting pressure on the dollar." (Jin10 Data APP) On other currencies: Shigeto Nagai, an analyst at Oxford Economics, noted in a report that the Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise its policy rate to 1% from 0.75% in June, rather than July. Due to heightened global inflation concerns and market expectations that the US Fed may hike rates in the coming year, the central bank is unlikely to delay a rate hike. "Doing so (delaying a hike) would disappoint financial markets and could lead to further depreciation of the yen," said the head of Japan economics research. However, Nagai also pointed out that uncertainty from Middle East conflicts is a significant reason for caution regarding rate hikes, given Japan's sensitivity to terms-of-trade shocks. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Front: Data releases today include Germany's April seasonally adjusted industrial output month-on-month, Germany's April seasonally adjusted trade balance, the US May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending May 23, the US April trade balance, US May existing home sales annualized total, US April wholesale sales month-on-month, and China's May trade balance in US dollar terms, among others. Also, attention should be paid to: Apple's WWDC developer conference, running until June 13. On the crude oil front: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 0.82% and Brent up 1.1%. Crude oil retreated after a rapid rise amid a phased easing of Middle East geopolitical tensions. However, predictive market data showed the probability of a permanent peace agreement being reached within the year declined throughout the weekend, indicating that geopolitical uncertainty has not completely dissipated. (Wall Street CN) According to Iran's Tasnim news agency, Iran responded to Trump's claims of victory, stating: "In his latest attempt to curb energy market fluctuations, Trump failed to offer a practical solution and instead resorted to the old tactic of 'verbally manufacturing victory.' He pledged to 'totally defeat' Iran within the next two weeks, attempting to link a vague political concept to economic variables in a bid to positively influence global oil markets. But it is clear that these statements are not reality-based predictions, but a psychological tool aimed at controlling oil price volatility and preventing further economic pressure on his administration as the election approaches." (Jin10 Data APP) A research report from China Securities pointed out that the market is underestimating the short- and medium-term upside risks for oil prices. In the short term, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for several weeks, forcing the shutdown of more oil wells, and prolonged closures will lead to permanent loss of some capacity. In the long term, against a backdrop of low capital expenditure, the number of US drilled-but-uncompleted wells (DUCs) and new drilling activity have repeatedly hit new lows, implying that high US crude oil production is unsustainable. Future spare supply capacity and pricing power are expected to rest in the hands of the Middle East. The market previously overly optimistically estimated the end timeline for Middle East conflicts; however, real-world contradictions have become increasingly prominent. Recently, the market has begun to gradually price in a long-term rise in oil prices, and potential inflation risks also warrant attention. (Jin10 Data APP)

Developing local processing capacity is not simply a matter of building another plant next to a mine. It requires a country to simultaneously possess reliable energy supply, logistics infrastructure, chemical-industry capabilities, engineering expertise, customer qualification systems, access to financing, policy continuity and transparent pricing mechanisms. Resources can attract investment, but they cannot guarantee project success.