SMM July 17 News: This week, secondary refined lead EXW transaction prices were mainly at a discount to the SMM #1 lead average price. Smelters held back from selling due to losses, and price fluctuations during the week caused the discount/premium range to fluctuate between a discount of 50 yuan/mt and a premium of 30 yuan/mt. Industry losses widened first and then narrowed. As of July 17, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for secondary lead enterprises stood at -317 yuan/mt for large-scale producers and -497 yuan/mt for small and medium-scale producers. Next week, expectations for production cuts in secondary lead will support lead prices, and premiums/discounts may return to parity territory. However, the battery off-season combined with high scrap battery costs will make it difficult for losses to improve.

SMM July 17 news: As of July 16, secondary lead finished product inventories stood at 21,300 mt, down about 300 mt WoW. Lead prices fell first and then rose this week, with downstream buying sentiment improving mid-week; combined with low production operation on the supply side, enterprise in-factory inventory growth was limited. Looking into next week, some enterprises in North China intend to halt production, and the supply side is expected to tighten, keeping finished product inventories stable to lower.

It is understood that as of July 16, the in-factory inventory of major primary lead delivery brands was 17,100 mt, down 2,400 mt WoW. This week, production at primary lead smelters was stable with slight growth, while lead prices plunged early in the week, prompting downstream enterprises to buy the dip. Except for a few smelters holding back from selling at low prices, most other enterprises sold at market prices, leading to a decline in in-factory inventories. After the price drop, secondary lead enterprises faced heavier losses, with shipments shrinking significantly. In addition, secondary refined lead was quoted higher than primary lead, so downstream purchases leaned toward primary lead, thus driving destocking at primary lead smelters.

[SMM Nickel Flash] The SMM high-grade NPI (10-12%) average price fell 3.1 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,129.4 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the Indonesian NPI FOB index average price slipped 0.47 $/nickel unit WoW to 145.76 $/nickel unit. This week, the high-grade NPI spot market was in a deep supply-demand tug-of-war throughout, with the divergence between bullish and bearish expectations continuing to widen. Overall trading was thin, and volume-based fixed-price purchases by steel mills were absent.

SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI average price dropped WoW by 3.1 yuan/nickel unit to 1,129.4 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), and the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price dropped WoW by $0.47/nickel unit to record $145.76/nickel unit.

SMM July 17: The market generally suggested raising the secondary refined lead price by 175-200 yuan/mt, willingness to sell was moderate, and ex-factory prices for spot orders were mostly at parity with SMM #1 lead; spot transactions were at a discount of 50 yuan/mt. Downstream alloy and battery plants resisted the price increase, procurement sentiment remained heavily wait-and-see, overall market trading was sluggish, and the price increase lacked support from actual demand. Today, the SMM secondary refined lead average price was reported at 15,725 yuan/mt, at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price. The supplier selling sentiment stood at 0.96, and the purchasing sentiment for secondary refined lead today was 2.55 (historical data can be accessed in the database).

The global overseas primary aluminum spot market faced overall downward pressure this week, with spot premiums in Japan, Southeast Asia, South Korea and the US all falling week-on-week. The Asian market was weighed down by weak downstream purchasing sentiment amid the traditional consumption off-season. Ample circulating supply stemming from concentrated cargo arrivals in the US compounded the bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, the LME curve briefly flipped into a Backwardation (B) structure this week. Elevated capital costs prompted traders to step up sell-downs, pushing spot offers lower across regions and dragging down transaction benchmarks. I. Weekly Comparison of Key Global Spot Premiums II. Regional Spot Transaction & Market Commentary (I) Asian Market: Sluggish Off-Season Buying, Wide Disparity Between Long-Term Benchmark QMJP and Spot Prices Japan Market Japan’s spot market remained sluggish this week, with downstream buyers only placing sporadic orders to meet immediate operational needs and no large-scale restocking activities. The Q3 QMJP benchmark price was set at USD 395/mt, sharply diverging from actual spot transaction prices ranging from USD 330–350/mt, resulting in steep discounts against the quarterly benchmark across the market. Southeast Asia, South Korea and Indonesia Spot premiums in Thailand and South Korea retreated in tandem as traders showed strong willingness to offload inventories. Overseas end-user demand for Indonesian primary aluminum stayed muted, while downstream players remained reluctant to accept high prices, driving down local ex-factory offers and concluded transaction prices. Across Asian trading channels, the temporary Backwardation structure on the LME aluminum curve, paired with higher capital costs and inventory pressure, encouraged holders to cut offers to liquidate stocks. Coupled with feeble downstream demand, spot prices faced additional downward pressure. (II) US Market: Concentrated Cargo Arrivals from Multiple Regions Weigh on Premiums Easier spot prices in Europe previously diverted some Canadian aluminum ingots to the US, alongside a portion of Indonesian primary aluminum shipments. Concentrated cargo arrivals boosted market supply substantially. Despite rigid underlying demand in the US, the surge in available supply kept DDP premiums under mild week-on-week downward pressure. III. Core Macro Drivers Shaping Overseas Spot Markets End-User Demand: Off-Season Drags on Asian Buying Sentiment Southeast Asia and Japan entered their traditional demand off-season. Downstream fabricators only purchased materials on an as-needed basis without proactive stockpiling, and market acceptable price levels kept sliding, leaving spot transactions without solid support. Trading Flows: High Capital Costs Fuel Traders’ Inventory Liquidation The temporary Backwardation structure on the LME aluminum curve lifted holding costs for metal traders. Most market participants opted to cut prices to sell stocks and recover capital, flooding the market with available material and further depressing spot premiums. IV. Brief Market Outlook In the near term, the off-season in Asia is far from over, and traders retain strong incentives to liquidate inventories, which will keep overseas primary aluminum spot premiums subdued. Market participants will closely monitor the commissioning timeline of Indonesian aluminum projects and restocking activities among overseas downstream manufacturers going forward.

[SMM Analysis: VC Supply-Demand Tight Balance to Persist in Short Term; HSC 60,000 mt Project Adjustment May Reshape Industry's Long-Term Competitive Landscape] On July 11, 2026, HSC New Energy Materials issued an announcement, making a major adjustment to the construction plan for the 60,000 mt vinylene carbonate (VC) project in Yunmeng, Hubei: The original phased construction plan for 30,000 mt in Phase I and 30,000 mt in Phase II was canceled and changed to a one-time overall construction of 60,000 mt VC capacity. The total project investment remains unchanged at 1.6 billion yuan, and the construction site, investment entity, and overall time to reach full production remain unchanged.

Platinum prices pulled back sharply today, weighed down by hawkish signals from the Fed’s Logan combined with renewed Middle East tensions. In early trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2608 on the GFEX settled at 398.4 yuan/g, down 3.15%, while the inverted spread between the SGE platinum 9995 ask price and the GFEX PT2608 hovered around 5 yuan/g. On the spot side, mainstream platinum quotes ranged from a discount of 0.5 yuan/g to a premium of 0.5 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract. The premiums/discounts for mainstream quotes saw relatively small changes from the previous trading day. Suppliers’ warehouse warrant quotes were mostly near parity with the most-traded GFEX contract, while factory warehouse warrants and spot quotes skewed to the lower end, with some offered at around a 3 yuan/g discount to the GFEX October contract. The October-August spread on GFEX platinum contracts narrowed today, and downstream buyers negotiated purchases based on orders. Overall, spot platinum market trading was moderate today.

[SMM Cobalt-Lithium Morning Briefing: This week, prices in the new energy industry chain continued to diverge. The lithium industry chain was generally weak. The transaction center of lithium ore shifted lower alongside lithium chemical prices, and lithium carbonate fell to around 150,000 yuan/mt. Downstream firms bought the dip at low price levels, but upstream producers held prices firm and held back from selling, intensifying the market tug-of-war. Lithium hydroxide transaction prices declined in tandem, and overall trading remained sluggish. In the cobalt industry chain, demand was weak. Refined cobalt, cobalt sulphate, and cobalt chloride all lacked effective transaction support, while prices of intermediate products and Co3O4 temporarily held steady. Nickel sulphate inventory continued to decline, but downstream stockpiling willingness was insufficient, and prices still faced pressure.]