[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]Pre-Holiday Stockpiling Fell Through, Supply and Demand in Secondary Aluminum Market Both Remained Weak

As the global green transition and the “dual-carbon” goals continue to advance in depth, the nonferrous metals industry accelerated its pace of low-carbon, intelligent, and high-end upgrading. As a core industrial cluster, South China featured a complete industry chain, outstanding resource endowments, strong policy support, and robust development momentum. Hosted by SMM,was scheduled to be held in Nanning, Guangxi, from September 9 to 11. Centering on five key themes—price trends, market trends, trade environment, policy direction, and low-carbon technologies—the conference aimed to build a high-end platform for industry exchange and cooperation. Guangdong Hongmingchang Technology Co., Ltd. sincerely invited industry peers from all sectors to gather in Nanning to make the event a success, jointly promote technological innovation and industrial transformation, help enterprises seize opportunities and address challenges, and jointly advance the high-quality development of the nonferrous metals industry. Clickto register for attendance now! Guangdong Hongmingchang Technology Co., Ltd. was established in 2023 and was a technology-driven enterprise deeply engaged in the entire aluminum industry chain and expanding into markets in and outside China. Leveraging the industrial advantages of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the company adhered to professional, honest, and efficient service standards, providing one-stop aluminum product solutions for industrial manufacturing, construction and building materials, renewable resources, and equipment supporting industries. Main Products A full range of aluminum semis, including aluminum ingot, aluminum billet, aluminum extrusion, aluminum scrap, and aluminum processing equipment. The company established a standardized quality control system, strictly controlling quality, specifications, and delivery lead times. It offered both spot supply and customized services to meet clients’ diverse needs such as raw material procurement, recycling and reuse, and equipment supporting. In 2026, the company established a professional warehousing base in Linyi, Shandong, focusing on two major businesses: intelligent sorting of secondary aluminum and finished aluminum trading . It worked in close synergy with Chalco Group’s Linyi industrial base to build an integrated secondary aluminum industrial platform of “recycling—intelligent sorting—finished product sales,” ensuring stable supply for Chalco’s secondary aluminum projects and enterprises in surrounding areas of Shandong, and promoting intelligent and standardized upgrading of the local secondary metals industry. Relying on a complete supply chain and a comprehensive logistics network, its business covered the whole country and expanded into the Southeast Asian market, winning long-term trust from clients in and outside China with stable supply and rapid response. Upholding the business philosophy of “quality first, customer foremost, innovation for long-term success,” the company integrated upstream and downstream resources and improved industry services, striving to become a leading integrated service provider for the aluminum industry chain in China with an international reach, and to create new industry opportunities together with partners. Contact Information Chang Xinhui 189 3910 0161 SMM Conference Contact Ding Weiquan 18029344837

[Geopolitical Risk Premium Exits Market, Aluminum Prices Under Short-Term Pressure and Volatility] On the macro front, the US and Iran have completed signing an electronic MOU. Expectations of geopolitical easing continue to materialize, market panic over the Middle East conflict continues to fade, and the geopolitical risk premium for commodities has weakened significantly. US May CPI rose 4.2% YoY, hitting a three-year high, while core CPI also strengthened. The market continues to bet on the Fed restarting rate hikes within the year, and expectations of tightening liquidity continue to suppress metal valuations. On the fundamentals side, the Middle East conflict caused involuntary production cuts in overseas aluminum capacity. Expectations of a global supply deficit continue to widen, and coupled with expectations of rising energy costs, this provides strong bottom support for LME aluminum. China’s inventory destocking trend has been established, and the destocking logic continues to be realized. The rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum, support from export demand, and supply normalization compressing aluminum ingot formation—these three fundamental factors jointly drive the continuation of destocking. SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will fall to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and may further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June/early July, bringing some support to aluminum prices. However, the pressure from high domestic inventory remains relatively pronounced. Coupled with the currently bearish macro sentiment dominating the market, short-term domestic aluminum prices are mainly in the doldrums, with volatile adjustments.

[Geopolitical easing combined with manufacturing slowdown exert dual suppression, SHFE and LME aluminum prices plunge significantly] SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will drop to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and may further approach 1.2 million mt by the end of June or early July, providing some support for aluminum prices. However, the pressure from high domestic inventory remains relatively evident, and coupled with the currently dominant bearish macro sentiment in the market, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly be in the doldrums with adjustments in the short term.

Recently, Kobe Steel, Ltd. and Nippon Light Metal Holdings Co., Ltd. reached an important agreement to integrate their aluminum extrusion businesses. Under the plan, Nippon Light Metal Holdings is expected to hold a majority stake in the new company to be established after the integration, and the two parties will strive to complete the business integration by April 2027 or later. Faced with the prolonged downturn in the aluminum extrusion business, the two companies aim to improve operational efficiency and enhance market competitiveness through this resource integration and complementary strengths. Nippon Light Metal Holdings has consistently pursued a growth strategy centered on its business group structure, and this business integration will further optimize resource allocation, accelerate product development, and deliver higher-quality products and services to clients, thereby enhancing overall corporate value.

In the China-Europe Advanced Manufacturing Industrial Park in Chengxiang Town, Taicang, Jiangsu, Norway's Hydro Group (Hydro) held a production launch ceremony for its new automotive aluminum parts plant. Hydro Group has consistently focused on the R&D and manufacturing of aluminum extrusions and low-carbon recycling technologies, with its products widely used in the supply chains of high-end automakers such as BMW, Tesla, and Audi. The project has now successfully passed the PPAP review, officially entering the full mass production phase, and in the future, it will stably supply high-end lightweight aluminum structural parts for BMW car models. After reaching full production, the project is expected to generate an annual new output value of 50 million yuan, injecting high-quality foreign-invested capacity into Taicang's automotive parts industry chain.

[Domestic and overseas aluminum prices see a modest simultaneous recovery; China's destocking stabilizes with limited upside room] SMM maintains its assessment that inventory will drop to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and is expected to further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June or early July. The futures market sees short-term stabilization signals, but high domestic inventory pressure remains relatively evident, which is expected to limit the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

China’s aluminum ingot inventory, after hitting a peak not seen in nearly three years in 2026, accelerated its pullback this week. According to SMM statistics, as of June 11, aluminum ingot inventory in major Chinese consumption areas was reported at 1.312 million mt, having cumulatively destocked by nearly 160,000 mt from the early-May high of around 1.47 million mt. The single-week decline this week reached 48,000 mt, clearly steepening the destocking slope...

Recently, the ninth extrusion production line of Guizhou Shengchang Aluminum Co., Ltd. was officially put into operation, marking a crucial step for this local aluminum enterprise in intelligent upgrades and capacity expansion. It is reported that the second-phase production plant of Shengchang Aluminum is also under intensive construction and is expected to be completed and put into production in August this year.

According to SMM data, China's aluminum billet inventory in major consumption regions fell to 154,500 mt on June 11, down 8,000 mt from last Thursday and down 5,500 mt from Monday, with the destocking pace further slowing. From the perspective of warehouse withdrawals, aluminum billet withdrawals recorded 51,700 mt during June 1–8, down 4,100 mt WoW.