The price inversion pressure on cobalt salt was high, and this week nickel intermediate product payables were in the doldrums.

[India] Indian long steel prices registered a slight decline across major markets, with buying activity remaining cautious amid the monsoon season. Mandi Gobindgarh TMT held at 503.10 USD/tonne (47,900 INR/tonne), while primary producer offers remained at 525.15 USD/tonne (50,000 INR/tonne) ex-Durgapur. In the semis market, Mandi Gobindgarh billet was unchanged at 447.43 USD/tonne (42,600 INR/tonne), although billet prices in Durgapur and Raipur slipped by 4.20 USD/tonne (400 INR/tonne) and 1.05 USD/tonne (100 INR/tonne), respectively. Export sentiment remained subdued, with Indian HRC offers heard at 490 USD/tonne FOB to European buyers and 520 USD/tonne FOB to Middle Eastern buyers. But buyers were not interested in these levels amid the availability of lower-priced material from other regions. Domestic raw material prices softened in July, led by lower iron ore and manganese ore prices. NMDC reduced Baila lump (65.5%) prices by 4.4% month on month to 57.10 USD/tonne (5,450 INR/tonne) and Baila fines (64%) by 3.1% to 49.30 USD/tonne (4,700 INR/tonne), while MOIL's 37% Mn lump ore declined 5.0% to 194.20 USD/tonne (18,529 INR/tonne).

On August 7, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$173.91/dmt, down $14.54/dmt from the previous -$159.37/dmt. The payable indicator for domestic trade ore with 20% grade stood at 98.5%-99.5%. This week, spot market transactions were relatively active, but transaction prices declined further. In spot trading, a trader sold 30,000-50,000 mt of bundled ore for delivery from Q4 2026 to Q1 2027 to a smelter at -$170/dmt, QP: M+1/M+5; another trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore at -$183/dmt to a smelter, with shipment in August/September, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 40,000-60,000 mt of bundled ore for Q4 delivery at -$170/dmt to -$175/dmt to a smelter, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 20,000 mt of bundled ore at -$174/dmt to -$175/dmt and also sold 10,000 mt of high-arsenic ore at around -$100/dmt to smelters, with shipment in Q4, QP: M+1/M+4; a trader sold 70,000 mt of bundled ore to smelters at an index minus $18/dmt, with shipment in Q4; a trader sold 10,000 mt of bundled ore for August/September shipment at an index minus $22/dmt to $23/dmt to smelters; a trader offered 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at an index minus $20/dmt. In mine tenders, on the trader side, the winning bid price for 10,000 mt of BISHA ore, September-October shipment, was -$240/dmt to -$230/dmt; the winning bid result for Chuquicamata was below -$200/dmt. Overall, fixed-price transactions increased in the spot market this week. Due to weather-related shipment delays from some mines in Chile and Peru, there was restocking demand. Coupled with rigid restocking needs from new smelting capacity, spot TC continued to deteriorate, and smelter profit margins kept narrowing. However, smelters had limited acceptance of low-priced supply. Downward pressure remained but downside room was limited. According to foreign media reports, the DRC government signed a decree on June 29 to ban the export of copper and cobalt concentrates, effective immediately. Under "strategic" conditions, the Minister of Mines may still grant an export exemption for a period of one year. It should be noted that the DRC had already imposed strict controls on copper and cobalt concentrate exports. Under current policy, such exports are prohibited in principle, and enterprises must obtain government-approved export quotas or exemptions before shipping. Therefore, this policy is more about reaffirming and further tightening the existing management framework, rather than a sudden complete halt to copper concentrate exports. The additional impact of the ban on short-term global copper concentrate trade is likely to be relatively limited. What is more noteworthy is the policy signal it sends: As the strategic importance of critical minerals grows, resource-rich countries are using export restrictions, local processing mandates, and tax policies to capture a greater share of the industry chain and resource value added at home. Resource nationalism is increasingly disrupting global copper raw material flows and the supply landscape. On August 4, Codelco announced that it had temporarily suspended the development and construction activities of the Andes Norte project at its El Teniente mine, due to a potential new-type seismic risk in the deep areas of the project. This measure only applies to the Andes Norte project and does not mean a full stoppage at the El Teniente mine. Other production areas at the mine continue to operate, with seismic monitoring and related safety measures in place. According to the latest data from China Customs, China's copper concentrate imports in July 2026 totaled 2.379 million mt, up 1.88% MoM and down 6.93% YoY. From January to July 2026, cumulative copper concentrate imports amounted to 16.985 million mt, representing a cumulative YoY decline of 1.8%. On August 6, 2026, SMM recorded copper concentrate inventories at eleven ports of 692,000 mt in physical content, up 27,600 mt in physical content from July 31. The main increase came from Fangchenggang Port and Qinzhou Port, up MoM by 20,000 mt and 29,000 mt respectively; the main decrease was from Yantai Port and Qingdao Port, down MoM by 22,400 mt and 20,000 mt respectively.

This week (Aug. 3 – Aug. 7), the weekly average warrant transaction price range for Yangshan copper premiums was $101–$112/mt, QP August, with an average of $106/mt; the weekly average B/L transaction price range was $96–$107/mt, QP September, with an average of $102/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L prices were $64–$73/mt, QP September, with an average of $69/mt. As of Aug. 7, the ex-exchange rate SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2608 contract against LME copper was 1.1247, with an import loss of around 1,385.43 yuan/mt, expanding by about 857 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday, the backwardation structure for the August LME copper date widened WoW, with the carry spread between the August and September dates at −$61.53/mt. Currently, mainstream offer prices for ER registered copper B/L have dropped to double-digit levels; mainstream warrant offer prices for registered copper were near $100/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums pulled back from high levels, mainly because the SHFE/LME price ratio continued to deteriorate, compounded by the widening backwardation structure of nearby LME contracts, which increased suppliers' willingness to offer cargo. Meanwhile, as copper prices surged, downstream consumption demand was poor. Additionally, high premiums in the domestic market previously attracted cancelled warrants from LME Asian warehouses, which gradually arrived in China, causing temporary congestion at Shanghai Port. Together with some export cargo pressuring prices, market spot premiums weakened. According to SMM data, China's bonded zone copper inventories as of Thursday this week (Aug. 6) decreased by about 6,000 mt WoW from the previous period (Jul. 30) to 31,100 mt. Specifically, Shanghai bonded inventory decreased by 6,500 mt WoW to 26,900 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventory increased by 500 mt WoW to 4,200 mt. The weekly bonded zone inventory decline was mainly because of reports that cargo ships were heading to the US. Additionally, the slight opening of the export window led to small-scale exports by some smelters to the bonded zone. Looking ahead, the siphoning effect from North America continues, so the logic of overall supply constraints in the market remains. However, with the SHFE/LME price ratio significantly inverted, consumption demand suppressed by high copper prices, and expectations of concentrated cargo arrivals at ports, traders' psychological price expectations for spot cargo are rapidly declining, and imported copper premiums are expected to see a temporary pullback. Additionally, with the export window slightly open, smelters have export expectations. According to SMM, export volumes in the first week of August up to now have been relatively limited, and future export volumes need continued monitoring.

This week, industry chain prices diverged. Lithium ore edged down alongside lithium carbonate, but mines continued to hold prices firm, making profit distribution across the industry chain a market focus. Supported by maintenance and tight spot order supply, lithium carbonate prices consolidated on a subdued note, while lithium hydroxide prices initially fell before rebounding. The cobalt industry chain remained generally under pressure—with weakening overseas quotations and sluggish off-season demand, refined cobalt, intermediate products, and cobalt salt prices continued to weaken, and the price spread between buyers and sellers widened. Nickel sulphate edged down, with the market still primarily focused on destocking; ternary cathode precursor prices declined due to weaker nickel and cobalt salt prices, while ternary cathode material prices remained basically stable. LFP prices proved resilient, supported by rising processing fees, with August production schedules continuing to grow and high-quality capacity remaining tight. Artificial graphite prices rose, the supply-demand balance for separators stayed in tight balance, and electrolyte prices were pushed up by raw material cost transmission. Supply of key materials for sodium-ion batteries remained tight, while recycling-side transactions were subdued. On the terminal side, EV and ESS demand maintained resilience, though the consumer market recovery remained limited. Looking ahead, the focus will be on peak season stockpiling and demand realization.

[SHFE/LME Price Ratio Consolidates Around 6.8]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio pulled back to consolidate around 6.8, with the zinc ingot import window remaining closed. Outside China, the US ADP employment data fell short of expectations, while the US dollar index and US Treasury yields consolidated. LME inventory dropped below 100,000 mt, and the cash-to-three-month backwardation structure held at a high of around $60/mt, extending the tightness in the spot market outside China, driving LME zinc to a multi-year high.

SMM August 7 News: Metal market: As of midday close, domestic market base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper added 0.56%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.86%, SHFE lead gained 0.48%, SHFE zinc advanced 1.35%, SHFE tin fell 0.3%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.44%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract edged up 0.32, while the most-traded alumina contract slipped 0.33%. Lithium carbonate most-traded contract rose 1.23%. Silicon metal most-traded contract surged 2.21%. Polysilicon most-traded futures contract jumped 5.03%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore futures gained 0.28%, rebar edged higher, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.43%. Stainless steel advanced 1.39%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.6%, and the most-traded coke contract jumped 3.22%. In the overseas market, as of 11:40 AM, LME base metals rallied across the board. LME copper gained 0.69%, LME aluminum edged up 0.31%, LME lead rose 0.4%, LME zinc advanced 0.44%, LME tin added 0.42%, and LME nickel surged 1.61%. In the precious metals space, as of 11:40 AM, COMEX gold rose 0.43% and COMEX silver gained 1.45%. For domestic precious metals: SHFE gold edged up 0.28%, and the SHFE silver most-traded contract added 0.11%. Additionally, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.71%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 1.55%. As of midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 1.79% to 1,682 points. As of 11:40 AM on August 7, here are some futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 160 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at 0 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 108,355 yuan/mt, up 455 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,245 yuan/mt, up 425 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front Domestic side: [Over 30 trillion yuan! China's goods trade imports and exports continued to grow in the first seven months this year] The General Administration of Customs announced today that in the first seven months, China's goods trade imports and exports totaled 30.13 trillion yuan, up 17.3% YoY, extending a solid growth momentum. Exports were 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14%, while imports were 12.69 trillion yuan, up 22%. In July alone, imports and exports amounted to 4.66 trillion yuan, up 19.2% YoY. Of which, exports stood at 2.71 trillion yuan, up 17.8%, and imports stood at 1.95 trillion yuan, up 21.2%. [National Energy Administration: Boost Independent R&D of Key Power Equipment, Promote Key Technology Breakthroughs in Power Chips and UHV Components] The National Energy Administration issued the "Power Safety Production '15th Five-Year' Action Plan." Among them, it is mentioned to strengthen "AI+" safety governance, innovate high-precision fault prediction and health management methods for equipment, promote the integration of AI technology into intelligent safety tools and equipment, and research AI large model-based auxiliary decision-making technologies for power safety production. Boost independent R&D of key power equipment, strengthen the R&D of new-type protective materials, set up special plans for technical breakthroughs in core components of power equipment, and promote key technology breakthroughs in power chips, UHV components, etc. Promote the innovation of safety and quality control technologies in power construction projects, research and build intelligent supervision systems for power construction projects, and use AI, big data and other means to strengthen off-site supervision and quality supervision of key power projects. (National Energy Administration) [General Administration of Customs: Integrated Circuit Cumulative Exports, January-July, Up 99.5% YoY] Data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that China's integrated circuit export value reached $38.74 billion in July, and the cumulative export value from January to July reached $216 billion, up 99.5% YoY. (Jin10 Data) [PBOC Open Market Operations Net Drain: Today (133 Billion Yuan), This Week (1,225.5 Billion Yuan)] The PBOC conducted 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 134 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, this resulted in a net drain of 133 billion yuan on the day. This week, the PBOC carried out 176.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations, 300 billion yuan of overnight reverse repo operations, and 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations. With 116.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 900 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos maturing, the weekly net drain amounted to 1,225.5 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data) As of 11:40, the US dollar index edged up 0.02% to 99.96. The market focused on the US non-farm payrolls data for clues on the interest rate outlook. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September was 45%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike stood at 55%. For October, the probability of rates staying unchanged was 31%, with a 51.9% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 17.1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) US Fed’s Musalem: Currently, inflation is far above the Fed’s 2% target. Monetary policy must effectively curb underlying inflation, rather than tolerating current high inflation in hope of future productivity gains. US Q2 labour productivity grew faster than expected, mainly as enterprises sought to ease pressure from rising costs. Data released on Thursday showed that nonfarm productivity grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q2, up from an upwardly revised 0.8% increase in Q1, a result that also exceeded general market forecasts. Unit labour costs, however, rose 1.3%, below expectations. Fed officials, investors, and economists have been looking for signs of whether hundreds of billions of dollars in AI investments are boosting labour productivity. However, given the large quarterly fluctuations in official data, it will still take time to observe a clear trend. Labour costs are one of the largest expense items for many enterprises, and efficiency improvements can allow wages to rise without pushing up inflation. In the long term, higher productivity helps improve living standards, but some economists worry that if AI-driven productivity gains persist, some enterprises may delay hiring or even cut staff. The Q2 productivity growth was supported by the strongest output growth since Q3 2025, alongside a relatively mild increase in hours worked. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of France's Q2 ILO unemployment rate, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, Germany’s June seasonally adjusted trade balance, the UK’s July Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France’s June trade balance, Switzerland’s July consumer confidence index, Canada’s July employment change, the US July unemployment rate, the US July seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, the US July average hourly earnings y/y, the US July average hourly earnings m/m, the US July New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, China’s July trade balance in USD terms, China’s July foreign exchange reserves, and China’s July trade balance. Attention: 2028 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.01% and Brent up 1.06%. Market concerns over navigation prospects in the Strait of Hormuz supported oil prices. According to preliminary US government data, US crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia fell to zero in July this year, the first time since 1985 that no Saudi crude was imported in an entire month. Data released by the US Department of Energy (DOE) on Wednesday local time showed that Saudi crude oil shipments to the US completely ceased in July. This drop is particularly striking given that US refineries were purchasing an average of over 800,000 barrels per day of Saudi crude earlier this year. As the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and other war-related supply disruptions pushed up crude prices linked to global benchmarks, US refineries have been seeking alternative supplies for Saudi crude. Saudi crude deliveries to the US have historically fallen to zero in individual weeks, but July marked the first time in over 40 years that deliveries were at the lowest level for an entire month. According to Kpler data, US crude imports from Saudi Arabia are expected to recover to around 300,000 barrels per day this month, in line with recent historical norms. (Jin10 Data APP) Saudi Arabia lowered its key crude prices for Asia, while negotiations were underway on an agreement aimed at easing shipping pressures in the Strait of Hormuz. The price cut came despite threats from Houthi militants that jeopardized the alternative route for eastbound crude shipments through the Red Sea. A price list showed that Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, lowered the price of Arab Light crude for delivery to Asian customers next month by 50¢ per barrel, to a level $2 below the regional benchmark. A previous survey showed that traders had expected Saudi Aramco to keep the price of its flagship crude unchanged. This week, the global benchmark Brent crude price fell sharply and is now trading near $80 per barrel. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Vietnam’s 10 largest steel and building-material enterprises are expected to contribute a combined VND 19.04 trillion to the 2025 state budget, down 2.9% year on year but up 40.6% from 2023. Hoa Phat Group leads with VND 12.95 trillion, accounting for about 68% of the Top 10 total, followed by Hoa Sen Group at VND 1.23 trillion, VICEM at VND 1.11 trillion and VNSTEEL at VND 927 billion. Steelmakers accounted for 85.5% of the total, with VAT on imported goods representing a major source of payments for several companies. In contrast, resource taxes, land-related payments and environmental fees made up a significant share of VICEM’s contribution. The figures also reflect diverging market conditions across steel segments: Vietnam’s finished steel output rose 9.6% in 2025, while sales increased 8.7%, supported mainly by domestic demand. Construction steel sales grew 12% and HRC sales rose 28%, while galvanized and cold-rolled steel remained under pressure from weaker exports.

The latest data released by the General Administration of Customs on August 7 showed that China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.379 million mt in July, with cumulative imports of 16.985 million mt from January to July, down 1.8% YoY. China's imports of unwrought copper and copper semis were 425,000 mt in July, with cumulative imports of 2.915 million mt from January to July, down 6.2% YoY. On the export side, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis were 643,000 mt in July, with cumulative exports of 4.039 million mt from January to July, up 16.7% YoY. Detailed data are as follows (unit: 100 million yuan): Note: "Flash" data refers to preliminary monthly aggregates from customs statistics and is subject to revision based on final monthly data after correcting errors in the original statistical source materials. (Compiled by Wenhua)

Against the backdrop of the United States accelerating the build-out of its domestic battery supply chain while continuing to depend on foreign sources for critical minerals, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) issued an interim final rule on August 5, 2026, imposing export controls on certain recycled battery materials. The most impactful measure is a temporary export restriction on black mass — an intermediate product of lithium battery recycling.