SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,794.5/mt. After dipping to $12,734/mt in early trading, its center rose throughout the session, touching a high of $12,968.5/mt near the close, and finally settled at $12,919/mt, up 0.39%. Trading volume rose to 31,000 lots, an increase of 6,518 lots from the previous trading day; open interest rose to 303,000 lots, down 5,089 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears reducing positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,230 yuan/mt. After bottoming at 100,050 yuan/mt in early trading, its center rose throughout the session, touching a high of 101,250 yuan/mt at the close, and finally settled at 101,160 yuan/mt, up 1.28%. Trading volume fell to 46,000 lots, down 148,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest fell to 197,000 lots, down 3,094 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears reducing positions overall.

[South Africa's platinum group metals and gold production fell in Q1] According to MiningWeekly, South Africa's mining production fell by 2.8% YoY in March, mainly due to a decrease in the production of platinum group metals and gold. Data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) showed that platinum group metals production fell by 9.9%, and gold production fell by 11.1%, but iron ore production was up 7.5% YoY.

According to MiningWeekly, South Africa's mining production fell by 2.8% YoY in March, primarily due to decreased production of platinum group metals (PGMs) and gold. Data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) showed that PGM production declined by 9.9% and gold production by 11.1%, while iron ore production increased by 7.5% YoY. Seasonally adjusted mining production rose by 3.5% MoM in March, following a 4.1% decline in February and a 0.2% increase in January. Seasonally adjusted mining production fell by 4.5% QoQ in Q1. The decline was mainly driven by PGMs, though the increase in iron ore production partially offset the decrease. Seasonally adjusted sales of mineral products rose by 0.5% MoM at current prices, following a 9.6% decline in February and a 1.4% increase in January. Seasonally adjusted sales of mineral products fell by 10.1% QoQ in Q1. Bongani Motsa, senior analyst at the Minerals Council South Africa, stated that future gold demand is expected to remain stable, which should benefit South African gold companies. "Gold is a barometer of global events. It has various uses, from jewelry to industrial applications and as a safe-haven investment tool. These characteristics make gold a timeless and ideal metal," he said. Additionally, he pointed out that despite the contraction in PGM production in February, exports and export revenues were higher than pre-2019 pandemic levels. He believes that the short- to medium-term outlook for chrome and manganese is positive, especially given the easing of trade tensions.

In the first quarter of 2025, the Philippines saw a strong performance in nickel ore exports, achieving significant growth in export revenue despite the decline in international base metal prices. According to data from the Philippines Statistics Authority, the export value of nickel ore and its concentrates rose markedly compared to the same period last year, reflecting sustained global demand for the country’s resources. China remained the largest importer of Philippine nickel ore, followed by Indonesia. Additionally, export volumes also increased, underscoring the Philippines’ growing role in the global nickel supply chain.

The Philippines achieved remarkable performance in nickel ore exports during Q1 2025, with export revenue showing significant growth despite the challenge of declining international base metal prices. According to data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the export value of nickel ore and its concentrates from the country increased substantially YoY, indicating sustained global market demand for its resources. Among these, China continued to be the largest importer of Philippine nickel ore, followed by Indonesia. Additionally, the total export volume also showed an upward trend, suggesting a further consolidation of the Philippines' position in the global nickel supply chain.

The Chinese and US governments issued a joint statement on Monday, agreeing to temporarily modify and eliminate additional tariffs imposed on each other's goods. Within 90 days, the reciprocal tariff rates between the two countries will be reduced to 10%. This statement significantly boosted confidence in global capital markets, with Asian and European stock markets, as well as US stock index futures, all rising on Monday. Meanwhile, as tariff disputes ease, market expectations are that the global economy is likely to continue growing amid the resumption of normal trade between China and the US. This has also driven stronger oil demand, thereby benefiting oil prices. As of press time, Brent crude oil futures prices rose by 2.74%, and WTI crude oil futures prices rose by 2.72%. However, the sustainability of the rebound in crude oil prices remains to be verified. Gao Jian, a crude oil researcher at Qisheng Futures, previously told the media that it is uncertain whether the tariff issue can be fundamentally resolved and whether tensions can be eased. Unless there are more tangible and favorable developments in macro, fundamental, or geopolitical aspects, the scope for further rebounds in oil prices will be limited. Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, had also previously warned that optimism over constructive talks between China and the US has supported market sentiment, but OPEC's production increase plans may limit gains. Game Theory OPEC plans to accelerate production increases from May to June to supply more crude oil to the global market. Meanwhile, the US and Iran will continue negotiations on the nuclear program, which will also reinforce market perceptions that global oil supplies will remain stable. On the other hand, US President Trump also seeks to continue lowering oil prices to fulfill his campaign promise of reducing energy costs. These macro factors collectively exert pressure on oil prices, leading analysts to believe that oil prices will remain low until 2026. Goldman Sachs earlier projected that for the remainder of 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil will remain at $60 per barrel, with WTI crude oil averaging $56 per barrel. In 2026, Brent crude oil will further decline to $56 per barrel, and WTI will fall to $52 per barrel. Starting from Monday this week, Trump will also make his first visit to the Middle East, conducting state visits to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Some commentators have pointed out that low oil prices are, to some extent, a gesture of goodwill from the Middle East towards Trump. For example, Saudi Arabia hopes to attract more US investment to support its Vision 2030 plan. Trump also hopes to receive more capital inflows from Gulf countries. However, Karen Young, a senior fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, stated that Gulf countries have higher import values than export values. If they cannot increase export revenues, they will have to sell domestic assets to cover fiscal and current account deficits. This means that low oil prices are not a sustainable policy for the Gulf countries. Tim Callen, a visiting scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, added that if oil prices continue to fall, it is less likely that the Gulf countries will fulfill their investment commitments to the United States. This, in turn, forces Trump to consider the possibility of rising oil prices. Given that attracting large-scale investment funds from the Middle East to the United States could be seen as a victory for the White House's economic agenda, Trump's trip to the Middle East will be crucial for the future direction of global oil prices.

A large-scale power outage occurred in parts of Spain, Portugal, and southern France on April 28 local time, affecting millions of people. Europe is facing congestion challenges caused by aging power grids and the integration of new energy sources, with 40% of the distribution networks on the continent having been in use for over 40 years. On April 20, the General Administration of Customs released the export data for electrical equipment in March 2025. In March 2025, the export performance of electrical equipment was robust, with transformers maintaining stable performance, switch exports reaching a new high, and the markets for electricity meters, cables, and inverters showing signs of recovery. In March 2025, China's export value of inverters to Europe was 1.773 billion yuan, up 63.70% MoM and 6.05% YoY. In March 2025, China's export value of switches to Europe was 73 million yuan, up 35.19% YoY. In March 2025, China's export value of cables to Europe was 166 million yuan, up 31.40% YoY. Wanlian Securities pointed out that, against the backdrop of energy transition, the global installed capacity of renewable energy is growing rapidly, coupled with the replacement and upgrading of power grid equipment, leading to steady growth in global power grid construction investment. China's electrical equipment products possess technological and cost advantages, making them highly competitive, and their penetration in overseas markets is expected to continue to rise. According to the Cailian Press Theme Database, among the relevant publicly listed firms are: Ginlong Technologies , which is one of the earliest companies to enter the mature overseas inverter market. Minsheng Securities' research report stated that, benefiting from the high growth in emerging markets and the accelerated destocking in Europe, the company's inverter business is trending positively. In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 1.518 billion yuan, up 8.65% YoY, and its net profit was 195 million yuan, up 859.78% YoY. Jinpan Technology 's dry-type transformers are widely used in various fields such as power generation, transmission, distribution, and consumption. In 2024, the company's export revenue increased by 49% YoY, and its overseas orders more than doubled, demonstrating its strong competitiveness in the global market.

Changyang Technology announced on the evening of April 22 that it achieved revenue of 1.336 billion yuan in 2024, up 6.62% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company was -29 million yuan, turning from profit to loss; and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -49 million yuan, down 186.00% YoY. Calculations show that Changyang Technology's Q4 2024 revenue was 333 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -48 million yuan, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of -54 million yuan. In its 2024 annual report, Changyang Technology stated that the company's separator project is in the capacity ramp-up stage, intensified competition in the PV film industry, and customer complaints about dry-process separator products led to an expansion of losses. During the reporting period, Changyang Technology's non-recurring gains and losses accounted for 66.07%, with the two highest items being government grants recognized in the current period amounting to 17.2254 million yuan, and the reversal of impairment provisions for receivables tested individually at 4.9853 million yuan. The net cash flow from operating activities of Changyang Technology during the same period was 182 million yuan, up 83.69% YoY, mainly due to an increase in cash received from sales of goods and services provided. By product, reflective films, which account for the largest share of the company's revenue, generated 960 million yuan in 2024, up 0.83% YoY, but gross margin declined by 2.5 percentage points to 35.13%, mainly affected by product mix factors. Optical base films achieved revenue of 107 million yuan, down 15.93% YoY, with gross margin improving by 1.17 percentage points to -5.31%, mainly due to a continuous increase in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products. Overall, the company's product structure is gradually shifting towards higher value-added directions, but it still faces significant pressure in the short term. By market, domestic sales revenue was 697 million yuan, up 4.54% YoY, with gross margin declining by 2.34 percentage points to 19.48%; export revenue was 497 million yuan, up 3.72% YoY, with gross margin declining by 4.79 percentage points to 34.61%. The larger decline in gross margin in the export market was mainly due to intensified market competition and rising costs. Overall, the export market's contribution to revenue remained stable, but profitability weakened. During the reporting period, Changyang Technology's R&D expenditure was 62 million yuan, down 10.41% YoY, accounting for 4.61% of revenue, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points YoY, mainly due to a reduction in material usage and employee compensation. The number of R&D personnel during the same period was 112, representing 14.05% of the total workforce, with an average salary of 180,800 yuan, up 18.80% YoY. As of the end of 2024, Changyang Technology held a cumulative total of 250 invention patents, with 30 new invention patents and 34 utility model patents added, mainly involving reflective film, optical base film, and separator technology fields. In the annual report, Changyang Technology stated that the LCD display industry remains the company's main downstream market. In 2024, demand for MiniLED backlit TVs grew significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 17.9% over the next three years. Meanwhile, demand for lithium-ion battery separators in the NEV and ESS sectors continued to rise, with global lithium-ion battery shipments reaching 154.51 GWh in 2024, up 28.5% YoY. However, the company's separator project is still in the ramp-up stage and has not yet contributed significant profits in the short term. Regarding fundraising projects, Changyang Technology's "Annual 20,000 tons of optical-grade polyester base film project" had a cumulative investment of 594 million yuan, completing 82.97% of the planned progress; the "Annual 560 million m² lithium-ion battery separator project" had a cumulative investment of 284 million yuan, completing 50.40% of the planned progress. On the evening of April 22, Changyang Technology also disclosed its annual profit distribution plan, stating that it does not intend to distribute cash dividends, bonus shares, or conduct capital reserve fund increases or other forms of profit distribution for 2024.

With the further escalation of the US "reciprocal tariffs," Shanghai-listed companies have formulated corresponding measures based on their respective situations. By optimizing global layouts, promoting supply chain autonomy, and strengthening technological innovation, they have adopted flexible strategies to address the uncertainties brought by tariff policies, demonstrating strong development resilience. By industry, China's key foundational sectors, such as petroleum, coal, steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, primarily focus on domestic operations. Their international businesses are mainly located in "Belt and Road" countries or African nations, with relatively small direct trade volumes with the US, resulting in limited overall impact. Industries such as electronics manufacturing, tires, and logistics, which have significant direct import and export volumes with the US or require raw material imports from China for US-based factories, have been affected to some extent. However, relevant listed companies have taken proactive actions to flexibly respond to US tariff measures. Energy industry: Tariff policies have not significantly impacted commodity-related industries in the short term. Yongzhen Co., Ltd. (603381.SH) stated that steel, aluminum, and their derivatives, as well as automobiles and parts, which are already subject to Section 232 tariffs, are exempt from "reciprocal tariffs." Therefore, the US reciprocal tariff policy currently has no impact on the company's Vietnam base. China Railway Group (601390.SH) reported that overseas mines are operating well. The country's export controls on molybdenum and Trump's tariff policies on copper have instead driven up molybdenum and copper prices, increasing the company's profits. Dingsheng New Energy Materials (603876.SH) stated that the volume of aluminum foil exported to the US is small, and the company does not bear the tariffs, so there is currently no impact. The company will actively respond by adjusting its supply chain and negotiating with customers, leveraging its global industrial layout. In the pharmaceutical industry, the proportion of sales of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and medical devices to the US is low. Overall, relevant pharmaceutical companies generally believe that the tariff policies have limited impact on them. Among them, Aurisco (605116.SH) mainly sells APIs to Europe, South America, and Southeast Asia, with a small proportion of US business, and its pharmaceutical products are exempt from tariffs; East Asia Pharmaceutical (605177.SH) has a wide range of product exports but has not directly sold to the US in recent years, with a self-controlled supply chain, ensuring stability despite tariff hikes; Aokang Medical (688613.SH) sources raw and auxiliary materials and equipment domestically, achieving self-sufficiency in raw materials and remaining unaffected by US tariff risks. In the chemical industry, on the import side, sub-sectors such as chemical fibers and polyurethane have low dependence on US imports; on the export side, previous adjustments in sales regions and reductions in US export shares have proven effective, resulting in limited overall impact from the tariff hikes. Zhejiang NHU Co., Ltd. (603867.SH) has a small proportion of products directly sold to the US market, and some products are exclusive, resulting in limited direct impact; Qianjiang Biochemical (600796.SH) sells bio-pesticides globally, with a very low proportion of US export revenue, making the impact of trade policy changes minimal on its operations. In industries such as electronics manufacturing, tires, and logistics, multiple companies stated that they are actively responding through global layouts, supply chain adjustments, and market diversification. The tariff hikes have had limited impact on them, and they will continue to closely monitor relevant policy changes. CosMX Battery (688772.SH) stated that there are few direct exports of consumer batteries to the US. If end products equipped with its batteries are subject to tariffs, it will negotiate with end customers. Meanwhile, the company has planned an overseas production site in Malaysia to enhance its global layout and mitigate tariff impacts. Hitec New Energy (688677.SH) initiated its overseas layout several years ago and completed the construction of US and Thailand factories before the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs." Currently, most products are produced and shipped locally, effectively reducing tariff impacts through the division of labor between domestic and overseas factories. Sailun Tire (601058.SH) adheres to a global strategy, with production sites in multiple locations in China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, and is building sites in Mexico and Indonesia. Its products are sold in over 180 countries and regions, and the company's controlling shareholder has repeatedly increased holdings, demonstrating confidence; Linglong Tire (601966.SH) has bases in Thailand and Serbia, enhancing competitiveness by flexibly adjusting order flows, optimizing costs and product structures, accelerating international layouts, and driving innovation, while actively communicating with overseas customers to address trade friction risks. Some economists believe that, given the proactive deployment of China's macro policies, both the central fiscal authorities and the central bank have reserved "ample reserve tools and policy space" to effectively hedge at critical moments, ensuring stable growth of the Chinese economy.

Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery (601717.SH) announced a dividend yield exceeding 8% for 2024. During the company's 2024 performance briefing held today, investors actively raised questions regarding US tariff policies, business development, and dividend plans. Jia Hao, Vice Chairman and General Manager of Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery, stated that the company and its domestic subsidiaries have a relatively small proportion of direct export revenue to the US, and the current US tariff incident has a limited impact on the company. In the coming years, the company's coal machinery and auto parts businesses still hold significant potential. The company aims to achieve a development target of 100 billion yuan by 2030 through diversified business layouts, resource integration, and industry chain collaboration. Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery achieved a total operating revenue of 37.025 billion yuan in 2024, up 1.73% YoY. Net profit attributable to the parent company reached 3.934 billion yuan, an increase of 20.16% YoY. Non-GAAP net profit was 3.604 billion yuan, up 19.05% YoY. Additionally, the company values shareholder returns and plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.12 yuan per share (tax included), totaling 1.956 billion yuan, accounting for 49.72% of the 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company. Based on the company's closing price today, the dividend yield reached 8.05%. Regarding future dividend plans, Jia Hao mentioned that the company currently has no interim dividend plan. The company will continue to provide consistent and stable cash dividends to investors, considering industry trends, corporate development plans, and operational funding needs, aiming to deliver long-term investment returns. When discussing the impact of overseas business and US tariff hikes on the company, Jia Hao noted that the company's overseas business revenue in 2024 was approximately 12 billion yuan, including export revenue from the company and its domestic subsidiaries, as well as revenue generated by the company's overseas auto parts subsidiaries. The coal machinery business successfully expanded into international markets such as Australia, the US, India, Turkey, Vietnam, and Indonesia. In the auto parts sector, Yaxing has long-term stable partnerships with internationally renowned automotive and auto parts producers, while SEG has established a global marketing and production network, with sales teams in key markets across Europe, the Americas, and Asia. Direct export revenue to the US accounts for a relatively small proportion, and the tariff incident currently has a limited impact on the company. The company will continue to monitor any subsequent adjustments to relevant tariff policies. Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery's main businesses are divided into coal mining machinery and auto parts. The company has also planned a transformation direction and development strategy focusing on electrification, intelligence, digitalization, and globalization. Through diversified business layouts, resource integration, and industry chain collaboration, the company aims to achieve a development target of 100 billion yuan by 2030. Jia Hao stated that the coal industry remains China's primary energy source, closely related to national energy security, and will continue to develop steadily in the coming years. The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation towards electrification and intelligence, offering vast development opportunities. Among these, the coal machinery segment contributed significantly to the company's profit growth in 2024, with a notable optimization in the segment's revenue structure and an increased proportion of high-margin products. However, some investors expressed concerns that the continuous decline in coal prices may severely compress coal companies' profits in 2025, potentially leading to reduced equipment investment. Jia Hao acknowledged that the domestic revenue of the company's coal machinery business accounts for over 93%, while export revenue does not exceed 7%. Domestically, the decline in coal prices will impact the profitability of the company's downstream customers, which may, in turn, affect their procurement of coal machinery equipment. Nevertheless, Board Secretary Zhang Yichen highlighted an optimistic aspect: "The rapid development of intelligent coal mining equipment in recent years has led to an expected penetration rate of 20%-30% for intelligent coal mining workfaces. The coming years will see a period of both new and replacement demand for intelligent coal mine upgrades." To mitigate potential impacts in the domestic market and prepare for future development, the company has intensified its efforts in overseas business development. Jia Hao stated that the company will focus on expanding the overseas market for its coal machinery business, actively targeting major coal-producing countries to develop underground mining equipment markets. However, the global political and economic environment in 2025 remains highly uncertain, and each coal machinery project requires customization, making it difficult to predict overseas revenue growth. The company also provided an overview of its future development plans for the auto parts segment. Jia Hao mentioned that the company will continue to grow its core business and market share while accelerating its transition to new energy, advancing new product business layouts, and enhancing competitiveness and profitability. Yaxing is actively developing the NEV market and expanding its share in the chassis damping business. New businesses such as air suspension systems are rapidly growing. SEG is promoting the large-scale development of high-voltage motor parts, exploring new motor business opportunities, and enhancing profitability through operational excellence.