[SMM Analysis]Weak Supply-Demand Pattern; Secondary Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Come Under Pressure and Pull Back in April

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Tight Supply and Recovering Demand Drove Magnesium Prices Steadily Higher This Week, Breaking 17,500] This week, China's magnesium industry chain as a whole held up well. On the raw material side, the dolomite market remained stable. Part of the suspended output in core production areas was supplemented by supply from surrounding regions, while stable operating rates at downstream primary magnesium smelting plants supported demand and the supply-demand balance. Affected by rising crude oil prices, subsequent delivered prices may rise slightly. The magnesium ingot market stayed firm, and both production and sales in major producing areas were strong. Geopolitical disruptions pushed up energy expectations, prompting producers to hold back sales and tightening supply. Rigid downstream demand, export order lock-ins, and a boost from industry conferences jointly drove magnesium prices higher. Offshore quotations were adjusted in line with ex-factory prices, and although bidding-based shipment prices were low at the beginning of the week, they rebounded later, while new orders declined. Magnesium powder remained firm, supported by higher magnesium ingot prices, while increased operating rates at magnesium plants ensured supply and both domestic and overseas demand recovered. The magnesium alloy market also stayed strong, with stable operating rates at top-tier enterprises, new capacity coming on stream, and downstream end-use demand being released, supported by ample orders and a supply-demand balance.

In Q1 2026, China’s aluminum semis exports showed a pronounced pattern of product-category divergence amid the interplay of three factors: the long-term impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates in December 2024, the divergence in demand structures outside China, and the sudden outbreak of geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.....

SMM Steel News, March 31: According to SMM statistics, estimated total shipments of resources to mainstream markets this week were 168,200 mt, down 21.69% WoW from the previous week's shipment level. By market: Table 1: Comparison of Arrivals in Mainstream Markets Source: SMM Steel Shanghai market: HRC shipments to the Shanghai market fell notably WoW this week. Specifically, shipments from the Northeast and east China markets were basically stable, resources from North China declined slightly, while shipments from mainstream steel mills in South China dropped more markedly, mainly because mainstream steel mills recently prioritized deliveries of specialty steel products. In the short term, the Shanghai market has recently had limited advantages, and steel mill shipments are expected to remain basically stable. Shipments to the Shanghai market next week are expected to rebound rangebound WoW from this week. Chart-1: Arrivals in the Shanghai Market Source: SMM Steel Lecong market: Shipments to Lecong fluctuated rangebound WoW this week. Specifically, arrivals of local mainstream resources and North China resources both saw no significant WoW changes. Looking ahead, it is understood that local mainstream steel mill WG has recently seen another increase in export orders, while orders for specialty steel have also performed well. In the short term, domestic trade shipment levels are unlikely to increase substantially, so arrivals are expected to remain at a relatively low level in the near term. Chart-2: Arrivals in the Lecong Market Source: SMM Steel SMM publishes weekly HRC shipment data by destination in mainstream markets every Tuesday. To subscribe to or follow more data, please scan the QR code below.

As of March 31, the most-traded SHFE zinc contract closed at 23,480 yuan/mt, up 1,230 yuan/mt for the month, with a decline of 4.98%. Zinc prices plunged in March, briefly climbing to a high of 24,955 yuan/mt at the beginning of the month and falling to a low of 22,350 yuan/mt in the middle of the month, with the overall price center moving down significantly. After zinc prices plunged in March, how will they move in April?

In March, China’s composite PMI for aluminum processing registered 65.6%, rebounding strongly above the 50 mark.

[SMM Analysis] Steel Export Review: Geopolitical Conflicts Trigger the Reshaping of the Export Landscape In terms of steel billet exports , the main target market in the first two months remained Indonesia. Part of the cargoes was imported by Chinese-funded or joint-venture rolling mills in Indonesia for further processing and use, thereby avoiding Southeast Asia’s import tariffs on finished steel products, while another part was supplied directly to local projects under construction. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America formed a solid base of exports. In particular, on the African side, Djibouti, as a core transshipment hub, had been handling a large volume of circulating resources. Turkey, meanwhile, saw a wave of concentrated external purchases due to delays in steel scrap vessel schedules and spot-futures price spread arbitrage. In terms of bar exports , the share to Hong Kong, China declined somewhat from the end of last year, while exports to Singapore overtook it. The main reason was that procurement in Singapore was rigidly driven by local public housing renewal and public infrastructure projects, such as the Greater Southern Waterfront, according to construction periods, with actual end-user consumption remaining relatively stable; whereas Hong Kong, China, as a capital and logistics transshipment hub, saw some earlier speculative re-export orders constrained by offshore exchange-rate fluctuations at the beginning of the year and funding borrowing costs. Traders proactively reduced some speculative exposure for financial risk hedging purposes, which led to a decline in transshipment procurement volume. Looking ahead to March , with the full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s semi-finished products export channels were effectively cut off. Chinese steel billet is expected to absorb these additional export orders arising from geopolitical conflict, and traders and steel mills will also accelerate shipments to markets outside China such as Southeast Asia to gain a larger replacement share. Therefore, total steel billet exports still have room to rise. By contrast, Chinese bar exports mainly rely on short-haul regional shipping routes into the inland areas within Asia, and were subject to extremely limited direct impact from the disruption of long-haul Middle East logistics. Therefore, March shipments are expected to remain stable, supported by rigid-demand restocking within the region. Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Unlike the strong performance of billets, sheets & plates exports in the first two months were unsatisfactory. The cumulative exports of both cold galvanized and hot-rolled products in January and February declined YoY , with the drop in hot-rolled products being more pronounced. However, it should be noted that before the full suspension of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February, logistics channels to the Middle East remained open, which secured a critical delivery window for sheets & plates. Therefore, in terms of HRC exports , Saudi Arabia still firmly ranked first among export destinations with a volume of 348,000 mt , mainly because its large-scale non-oil infrastructure and manufacturing projects in China were still in an intensive construction phase, with strong end-user steel demand, which also prompted local buyers to lock in relatively lower-priced Chinese HRC ahead of shipping disruptions, thereby maintaining its leading position. Pakistan (230,000 mt ), by contrast, saw this mainly due to bottlenecks in domestic supply, creating phased concentrated restocking demand, and according to the SMM survey, most purchases were made by downstream pipe factories. From the perspective of cold galvanized exports , the Southeast Asian market was currently in a stage of rapid development, and macroeconomic expansion had created a huge gap in flat steel products. Thailand in particular (304,000 mt ) was in a concentrated raw material stocking cycle for local downstream auto manufacturers at the beginning of this year, so just-in-time procurement by multiple physical manufacturers directly pushed up local imports. Looking ahead to March , under the dual impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the Ramadan effect, sheets & plates exports to the Middle East core region are expected to face a sharp contraction. SMM shipping data showed that steel arrivals had already declined by more than 900,000 mt. However, under the pressure of elevated destocking in China, this portion of blocked exports is expected to be redirected to Southeast Asia and other alternative markets with “rigid manufacturing demand” for redistribution, thereby offsetting shipment reductions caused by localized logistics disruptions. Therefore, there is no need for excessive concern over total sheets & plates exports in March Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. 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According to SMM data, die-cast zinc alloy operating rates stood at 51.8% as of last week. Looking at March expectations, the industry's operating performance is projected to decline by approximately 7 percentage points year-on-year. The main reasons for the decline in operating rates are as follows

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Polysilicon Prices Remained Slightly Weak, While Module Prices Were Stable on the Surface but Fell in Practice] Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 36-43.5 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices still appeared slightly weak over the weekend, and the market reported that some crystal pulling facilities had extremely low target prices, which upstream suppliers had not yet accepted.

Overall, amid the structural adjustment of shifting demand across global regions, China’s prebaked anode exports could offset the pressure from weakening demand in traditional markets through market structure optimization and a shift in the center of orders, coupled with its own capacity and supply chain advantages. Full-year China prebaked anode exports are expected to maintain a certain increase.