Intermediate Product Production Cuts Materialized, MHP and High-Grade Nickel Matte Payable Indicator Stayed High This Week

The Indonesian bauxite market in 2026 is being shaped by three concurrent developments that, when read together, point toward a meaningful and potentially rapid price recovery. Individually, each is significant. Together, they form a self-reinforcing mechanism that the market has not yet fully priced in.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,317/mt, moved sideways after the opening before dipping to a low of $13,168/mt, then the center rose to a high of $13,348/mt, and finally closed at $13,259/mt, down 0.68%, with trading volume at 18,000 lots, a decrease of 809 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 316,000 lots, a decrease of 4,795 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall movement mainly characterized by bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 102,670 yuan/mt, fluctuated downward after the opening to a low of 101,780 yuan/mt, then the center rose to a high of 102,880 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 102,550 yuan/mt, down 0.15%, with trading volume at 55,000 lots, a decrease of 51,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 186,000 lots, an increase of 1,437 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall movement mainly characterized by bears adding positions.

SMM April 24: Most cobalt-related product prices remained stable this week, with only refined cobalt and cobalt sulphate prices continuing their gradual decline, edging down to varying degrees. However, on the raw material side, cobalt intermediate products continued to maintain a strong position, as suppliers' strong willingness to hold prices firm, combined with miners participating in market procurement, intensified the tight supply of spot cobalt intermediate products... SMM compiled the cobalt market price changes this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, spot refined cobalt prices edged down this week. After a decline of 2,000 yuan/mt on April 23, spot refined cobalt prices remained at 408,000-418,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 413,000 yuan/mt. According to SMM, futures fluctuations for refined cobalt narrowed this week, and the market operated steadily overall. From a supply-demand perspective, on the supply side, the firm pricing sentiment persisted, with mainstream smelters maintaining ex-factory prices, and traders keeping the spot-futures price spread at parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt, with only a few traders offering discounts to accelerate capital recovery. On the demand side, the weak pattern continued, as downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises saw no recovery in orders, maintaining cautious procurement strategies focused on small-batch, high-frequency purchasing as needed, strictly controlling inventory risks. After refined cobalt prices stabilized at low levels, some downstream enterprises shifted to more optimistic expectations for the market outlook, with restocking willingness slightly rebounding. In the short term, weak demand continues to weigh on prices, while high raw material costs and the reverse dissolution price spread provide solid bottom support. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. As downstream demand gradually recovers going forward, refined cobalt prices still have upside room. Cobalt salt ( and ): : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt sulphate prices maintained a fluctuating downward trend this week. As of April 24, spot cobalt sulphate prices fell to 93,700-96,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 95,050 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from 95,350 yuan/mt on April 17, a decline of 0.32%. From a supply-demand perspective, according to SMM, on the supply side, mainstream cobalt sulphate smelters maintained quotes at 94,000-97,000 yuan/mt, supported by production costs. Some recycling enterprises and traders, under capital turnover pressure, offered concessions on shipments, lowering quotes to 92,000-93,000 yuan/mt, while some older cobalt sulphate inventory was transacted at around 90,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises saw sluggish demand, compounded by sufficient inventory levels, leading to weak overall restocking willingness, with only small volumes of low-priced resources purchased as needed. In the short term, affected by a small amount of low-priced supply from upstream and weak downstream demand, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to remain in the doldrums, with prices expected to see a corrective rebound once purchasing demand recovers. : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt chloride quotes remained stable this week. As of April 24, spot cobalt chloride held steady at 114,500-116,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of 115,350 yuan/mt. According to SMM, the cobalt chloride market continued to see a tug-of-war between bulls and bears this week, with the stalemate showing no signs of a breakthrough. In terms of supply, top-tier enterprises maintained firm quotes, with mainstream prices hovering around 116,000 yuan/mt and relatively solid support at the bottom; small and medium-sized producers, under pressure to recover funds, flexibly lowered shipment prices to 114,000-115,000 yuan/mt, but actual transaction volumes remained limited. Demand side, downstream participants remained predominantly cautious and on the sidelines. Although market inquiries were relatively active, substantive transaction increments were insufficient. Dragged down by weak end-use demand, Co3O4 enterprises maintained a conservative purchasing strategy for raw material cobalt chloride, with only occasional sporadic small orders for restocking. Overall, the cobalt chloride market still lacked clear momentum to drive a price breakthrough. : According to SMM spot quotes, spot Co3O4 quotes ran steadily this week. As of April 24, spot Co3O4 quotes held at 360,000-367,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 363,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, the overall trading activity in the spot Co3O4 market was low this week. Top-tier enterprises slightly lowered their quotes, but the periodically tight supply of cobalt intermediate products provided effective cost support for prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued to purchase as needed, mostly restocking in small volumes based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity remaining at a moderate level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the key variable determining the purchasing intensity of cathode materials. Against the backdrop of overall weak demand, the Co3O4 market is expected to remain focused on holding prices stable and staying on the sidelines in the short term, with all parties operating cautiously. Regarding raw material cobalt intermediate products, according to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate product prices held up well this week. As of April 24, spot cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) were quoted at $26-26.25/lb, with an average price of $26.125/lb. From a supply-demand perspective, according to SMM, suppliers on the supply side showed strong willingness to hold prices firm this week. Coupled with miners participating in market purchasing, spot tightness intensified, with some enterprises maintaining quotes above $26.0/lb. Demand side, downstream purchase willingness recovered slightly, but constrained by cobalt salt prices struggling to catch up, enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach with inquiries, with only small-volume transactions concluded in the $25.8–$25.9/lb range. It was learned that cobalt intermediate product cargoes from the DRC remained stranded at South African ports and in transit by land, 4 with only a few miners completing small-volume vessel bookings in April, expected to 5~6 arrive at port in May–June; affected by tight shipping conditions in Africa, the remaining cargoes are not expected to arrive in China in bulk until 7 July. Going forward, as downstream orders materialize and restocking demand is released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have upward momentum. On the news front, at the SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM) -hosted , SMM cobalt industry analyst Xiao Wenhao provided an outlook on the future development of the Chinese and global cobalt markets following the DRC cobalt export ban. On the domestic front, he noted that under the impact of the DRC policy, the Chinese cobalt market continued destocking, and cobalt product prices surged upward. Taking cobalt intermediate products as an example, as of March 2026, the spot price of cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) had risen to $25.85/lb, representing a 349.57% increase compared to $5.75/lb on February 25, 2025. According to SMM, since May 2025, the cobalt market began shifting into a tight supply situation, which is expected to see slight relief by June 2026. In addition, he also analyzed the supply-demand balance of the Chinese and global cobalt markets under two scenarios respectively: a pessimistic scenario — the DRC exports only the base quota of 87,000 mt + 70% exported to China, and a neutral scenario — the DRC maintains a long-term cobalt intermediate product export quota of 96,600 mt + 80% exported to China. Under the former assumption, according to SMM estimates, from 2025 to 2028, China's cobalt resources will exhibit a tight supply situation, with the Chinese market continuously facing raw material shortages. It is not until 2029–2030 that China's cobalt resource shortage is expected to ease, shifting to a tight balance. The DRC, on the other hand, shifted from a previous tight supply-demand balance to a significant oversupply in 2025, and the oversupply of its cobalt resources is expected to continue expanding in the coming years. Under the neutral scenario assumption, SMM expects that China's cobalt resources will exhibit a tight supply-demand balance in 2026, gradually shifting to a slight oversupply after 2027, though the surplus will be relatively small. The DRC's cobalt resources reached a supply-demand inflection point in 2025, and from 2025 onward are expected to exhibit a significant oversupply.

Teck Resources warned that rising diesel and freight costs could increase spending at its Chilean copper mining operations during Q2, as global supply tightened. The Canadian mining company said its Chilean operations relied on imported diesel and faced higher fuel and transportation costs due to supply disruptions related to the Strait of Hormuz, although no severe shortages were expected. "We expect freight costs to continue rising in Q2 2026, with explosives costs also increasing accordingly. We will continue to closely monitor developments, such as potential product export bans by major supplying countries, which could further disrupt the market," the company said. The warning highlighted broader supply chain pressures and the risk that government intervention could tighten metals markets, potentially prompting enterprises and strategic stockpiling of copper and zinc as demand strengthened. Alongside the cost warning, the company reported strong Q1 results that exceeded analyst expectations. This was primarily driven by higher copper prices, record sales, and increased production at its flagship mine, Quebrada Blanca (QB), in northern Chile. Production at the newly expanded mine grew 31.2% to 55,500 mt, compared with just 42,300 mt a year earlier when output was constrained by prolonged shutdowns. Despite a maintenance shutdown at the start of the year, performance remained on par with the previous quarter. Total copper production in Q1 reached 140,000 mt, compared with 106,100 mt in the same period last year. The company still plans to produce 455,000 to 530,000 mt in 2026 and 505,000 to 580,000 mt in 2027, while 2025 production is expected to be 453,500 mt, with the QB project expected to contribute 200,000 to 235,000 mt next year. Driven by growing power demand from data centers, artificial intelligence, and national defense, as well as expanding investment in power grid and electronic infrastructure, global copper demand is expected to surge 50% by 2040, benefiting Teck and its peers. Concentrates zinc production fell to 120,300 mt, a decrease of 17,000 mt from the same period last year. (Wenhua Consolidated)

On the evening of April 20, Chengtun Mining's Q1 report showed that the company achieved total operating revenue of 9.354 billion yuan, up 65.08% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.02 billion yuan, up 250.40% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the increase in Q1 revenue and net profit, Chengtun Mining stated that the company's main copper products saw higher production and sales volumes YoY, copper prices rose YoY, and profits improved; the company enhanced quality and efficiency in production and operations, controllable costs declined YoY, and performance grew during the period. In addition, Chengtun Mining also announced on April 20 that as of the disclosure date, the cumulative total outstanding external guarantees of the publicly listed firm and its controlling subsidiaries amounted to 10.854 billion yuan, accounting for 65.86% of the most recently audited net assets of the publicly listed firm. Of this, the cumulative total guarantees provided to associates was 172.04 million yuan; the cumulative total guarantees provided to controlling subsidiaries was 10.682 billion yuan, accounting for 64.82% of the most recently audited net assets of the publicly listed firm. None of the company's external guarantees were overdue. Chengtun Mining announced on April 8 that its wholly-owned subsidiary Preeminence Holdings Limited plans to acquire 50% equity of Nkoyi Leopard Mining and Investment Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Novel Mining and Services Limited, a company registered in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, UAE, for $300 million, thereby indirectly obtaining a 30% interest in specific copper-cobalt mining rights located in the DRC. Upon completion of this transaction, Nkoyi will become an associate of the company and will not be consolidated into the financial statements. Under the agreement, Preeminence plans to acquire 50% equity of Nkoyi for $300 million. Nkoyi's wholly-owned subsidiary has entered into a joint venture agreement for specific copper-cobalt mining rights, holding a 60% interest in such mining rights. Therefore, after this transaction, the company will hold a 30% interest in such mining rights. Nkoyi was established in October 2024 and has not yet commenced production or operations; its core asset is the aforementioned 60% interest in the copper-cobalt mine project. The counterparty, Novel Mining, was established in March 2026 and registered in Abu Dhabi, with its core project being the copper-cobalt mining rights. On April 2, Chengtun Mining responded to investor questions on an interactive platform, stating that the company continuously monitors relevant risks in its overseas operating locations, and that its operating projects in the DRC are currently running stably. On April 2, Chengtun Mining responded to investor questions on an interactive platform, stating that to effectively manage price fluctuations of non-ferrous metals and exchange rate risks, the company has adopted multiple risk management measures, including hedging and locking in selling prices of some mine product inventory and copper, gold and other products through bears futures contracts. When market prices of metal products rise, losses are reflected on the futures side. In 2025, market prices of copper, gold and other metals rose significantly, resulting in large unrealized losses on the futures side, which are offset by corresponding gains on the spot cargo side. The futures team will diligently carry out hedging operations in a prudent manner centered on the company's core business within the framework of the company's management systems. Chengtun Mining's previously released 2025 annual report showed that in 2025, the global non-ferrous metals industry entered a new development stage of supply-demand restructuring and value reassessment. Energy metals such as copper, cobalt and nickel were boosted by rigid demand from new energy, AI computing power, global power grid upgrades and other sectors, coupled with rigid supply-side constraints, driving the price center continuously upward. Precious metals such as gold saw a value opportunity amid global geopolitical conflicts and rising safe-haven demand. The new energy battery industry achieved high-quality advancement amid structural opportunities. Facing new industry development opportunities, the company adhered to its resource-oriented and internationalization strategy, deepened its entire industry chain layout of "controlling upstream resources and expanding downstream materials," strengthened operational measures of "controlling costs, focusing on details, and enhancing quality and efficiency," continuously consolidated core capabilities in global resource exploration, construction and operations, and enhanced the industry chain extension value of smelting, processing and materials manufacturing, continuously strengthening operational quality and resilience against cyclical fluctuations amid industry value restructuring. In 2025, the company achieved new breakthroughs in global resource deployment and industry chain operational capabilities. Overseas core projects achieved remarkable results in quality and efficiency improvement. After the completion of the Phase II expansion of the BMS copper smelting project, capacity increased significantly, reaching 120,000 mt in metal content by year-end, with annual production of 106,300 mt in metal content, and the profitability resilience of the copper-cobalt business continued to strengthen. The Kalongwe integrated mining and smelting project in the DRC advanced full-process technological transformation and engineering construction, achieving comprehensive upgrades in product quality control, production energy consumption reduction, comprehensive utilization of resources, and refined cost management. Indonesia's Youshan Nickel maintained stable operations amid industry fluctuations. The domestic segment made progress on multiple fronts: the Guizhou project further released industry chain extension value, Huajin Mining achieved steady growth in gold production, and the Dali Sanxin copper mine construction progressed in an orderly manner. In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 30.003 billion yuan, up 16.60% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 1.961 billion yuan, down 2.19% YoY. Chengtun Mining stated in its 2025 annual report that the company is committed to the development and utilization of energy metal resources, especially metal varieties required for new energy batteries, while also expanding into precious metals such as gold. The company focuses on copper, nickel, cobalt and gold. Its main business segments include energy metals, base metals, metal trading and others. Regarding its main business operations, Chengtun Mining provided the following overview: 1. Energy metals business: During the reporting period, the company's energy metals business achieved revenue of 20.384 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 25.69%, down 2.71 percentage points from the previous year. In 2025, copper products production was 207,400 mt in metal content, up 17.48% from the previous year; copper products revenue reached 14.071 billion yuan, up 34.20% YoY, with a gross margin of 28.88%, down 6.35 percentage points YoY; cobalt products production was 9,200 mt in metal content, down 30.58% from the previous year, with revenue of 1.011 billion yuan, down 30.64% from the previous year, and a gross margin of 53.76%, up 10.21 percentage points from the previous year; nickel products production was 49,400 mt in metal content, up 50.42% from the previous year, with revenue of 4.286 billion yuan, up 13.16% from the previous year, and a gross margin of 0.32%, down 3.25 percentage points from the previous year. (1) Copper-cobalt segment: ① The company actively advanced production, construction, quality improvement and efficiency enhancement of its copper-cobalt segment in the DRC. By the end of the reporting period, the company's total copper capacity in the DRC reached 230,000 mt in metal content per year. The company's copper-cobalt smelting projects CCR and CCM maintained stable production and operations while continuously optimizing process flows, keeping product qualification rates at high levels. BMS successfully completed its Phase II expansion, officially entering the ranks of enterprises with annual copper production capacity of over 120,000 mt in metal content. The Kalongwe copper-cobalt project coordinated full-process technological transformation and engineering construction in 2025, successfully completing the implementation of core technological transformation projects, achieving comprehensive upgrades in product quality control, production energy consumption reduction, comprehensive utilization of resources, and refined cost management, with significant cost reduction and efficiency improvement results. ② Dali Sanxin actively processed mine construction-related permits and has obtained the project approval report, among others. Land use and safety and environmental assessment procedures are progressing steadily. ③ During the reporting period, the company actively sought sustainable resource security through exploration in high-potential areas and pursuing acquisitive copper ore resource M&A and cooperation opportunities. (2) Indonesia nickel segment: During the reporting period, the Youshan Nickel project achieved stable production and operations. In 2025, nickel prices fluctuated downward overall under an oversupply pattern, with a rebound at year-end due to Indonesian policy disruptions. Through comprehensive measures including improving management, optimizing production processes, and rationally arranging production and operations, as well as forming industry chain synergies with related domestic industries, the industry chain's risk resistance was enhanced. The company will continue to seek further development opportunities in the nickel segment on both the mine resource side and the smelting side. (3) Deep processing and materials segment: ① In 2025, amid the severe raw material shortage caused by the DRC's "cobalt export ban," Kelixin achieved value maximization through precise control of production and shipments pace and efficient allocation of limited raw material resources. ② Zhonghe Nickel optimized process technology, further advanced refined management of production sites, achieved results in process control of high-magnesium slag-type materials, and improved the system's adaptability to raw materials from multiple channels. ③ As of the end of December 2025, the Guizhou Phase I project completed its capacity ramp-up and achieved full-capacity operation, while the Guizhou Phase II project construction was actively progressing. The company conducted systematic process benchmarking, further optimized system process flows, strengthened refined management and control requirements for various tasks, and ensured continuous and stable operation of production systems. 2. Base metals business: (1) During the reporting period, Chengtun Zinc & Germanium's zinc smelting operated at full capacity and comprehensively recovered valuable metals including germanium, silver, copper, indium and gold. Germanium product production increased 37.18% YoY, and the industrialisation of indium metal comprehensive recovery achieved phased success. A breakthrough was achieved in smelting furnace control technology, with slag processing volume and valuable metal recovery rates steadily improving, and economic benefits significantly enhanced. (2) During the reporting period, the company actively advanced the processing of domestic mine permits to ensure orderly construction. Baoshan Hengyuan Xinmao obtained the provincial NDRC's approval for the mining engineering project in September 2025. Huajin Mining operated according to plan in 2025, selling 320.75 kg of gold and achieving revenue of 244 million yuan. 3. Metal trading business and others: During the reporting period, metal trading achieved operating revenue of 999 million yuan, down 24.46% YoY, accounting for only 3.33% of total revenue. Currently, the company's main business scale is growing steadily. While the scale and proportion of industrial production and manufacturing have increased, the trading business scale has been gradually reduced, achieving good results on the path of high-quality, sustained and stable development. Regarding the company's business plan, Chengtun Mining stated: In 2026, the company's production and operation targets are: copper products production of 230,000 mt in metal content; cobalt products production of 15,000 mt in metal content; nickel products production of 60,000 mt in metal content; zinc products production of 300,000 mt; and gold products production of 380 kg. In other areas, domestic mines include continuing to advance the full-scale construction and commissioning of the Dali Sanxin copper mine, proceeding with the Baoshan Hengyuan Xinmao mining project construction as planned, increasing Huajin Mining production, and achieving full commissioning of the Guizhou Phase II project. Given the complex and volatile market environment, this business plan serves only as a guiding indicator, is subject to uncertainties, and does not constitute a commitment to achieving the stated production targets. To safeguard the interests of all shareholders, the company reserves the right to revise this business plan in a timely manner based on changes in market conditions, industry policy adjustments, and actual production and operational needs. Investors are advised to pay close attention to industry-specific risks, rationally recognize the uncertainties of forecast information, and make prudent investment decisions. Citi raised its 0-3 month copper price forecast to $13,000 per mt. ANZ believes that demand resilience driven by the energy transition and data center growth will keep the market at a 4%-5% supply gap, thereby supporting copper prices. A Huafu Securities research report dated March 8 showed: Copper — short-term, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts persist, and the tight fundamental landscape continues to support copper prices; medium and long-term, as deeper US Fed interest rate cuts boost investment and consumption while opening up room for China's monetary policy, coupled with potential inflationary rebound from the Trump administration's possible fiscal easing, the copper price center is expected to shift upward, and strong new energy demand will widen the supply-demand gap, maintaining a bullish outlook on copper prices. Aluminum — short-term, aluminum prices are mainly driven by macro sentiment and capital flows. Currently, the extent of aluminum price gains will depend on the duration of the strait blockade; if the shipping disruption is brief, the impact on prices should be limited, but a prolonged blockade could push aluminum prices to new highs. Individual stocks: Copper — focus on Zijin, CMOC, JCC, Chengtun Mining, Zangge, Jchx and Beibu-Gulf Copper, and H-shares focus on China Nonferrous Mining and Minmetals, etc. Aluminum — focus on Hongqiao Holdings, Tianshan, Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo, Huatong and Zhongfu, etc.

Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) stated on Monday that it voluntarily reduced its cobalt hydroxide production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2025 amid the country’s export ban and quota system, and only plans a partial recovery in output in 2026. ERG slashed its cobalt hydroxide production by 70% in 2025, down to 5,700 metric tons from 19,000 tons in 2024, and intends to double its cobalt output in 2026 compared with 2025. Its 2026 export quota in the DRC, including unused volumes from the fourth quarter of 2025, totals 12,325 metric tons of cobalt metal. Data shows that due to earlier front-loaded exports, the DRC exported only 48,800 metric tons of cobalt in the first quarter of 2026, much lower than the 123,000 tons recorded in the same period of 2025.

The mining regulator of the Democratic Republic of the Congo announced that the country has officially established a strategic reserve for cobalt and other critical minerals, to be operated by the market regulatory body ARECOMS, which is authorized to purchase, hold and market strategic minerals. As the world’s largest cobalt producer, the DRC accounted for around 70% of global supply last year. To counter the price slump caused by oversupply, it previously shifted from an export ban to a quota system, reserving 10% of national cobalt export volumes for state strategic use—totaling 9,600 metric tons in 2026. Any unused export quotas not shipped by companies within the deadline will be transferred to the national strategic reserve.

Shipping data showed that DRC copper exports fell 14.6% in Q1, pulling back from abnormally strong levels a year earlier, while cobalt exports saw a significant rebound after months of stagnation.

According to shipping data from Reuters, copper exports from the DRC fell 14.6% year-on-year in Q1 2026, while cobalt exports rebounded sharply after months-long export suspensions. The DRC exported around 955,000 metric tons of copper in Q1 2026, down from 1.09 million tons a year earlier, supported by major operations including Ivanhoe, CMOC, Glencore and Sicomines. In contrast, cobalt exports stood at 48,800 tons in Q1 2026 following the end of the export ban, compared with a high base last year when shipments were front-loaded. Meanwhile, supply of key chemicals for copper and cobalt processing remains tight in the DRC. Imports of sulfur, sulfuric acid and caustic soda have dropped sharply amid the conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran.